Adolescence-Limited and Life-Course-Persistent Antisocial Behavior: A Developmental Taxonomy
Terrie E. offitt
A dual taxonomy is presented to reconcile ! incon"ruous facts a#out antisocial #ehavior: $a% &t sho's impressive continuity over a"e( #ut $#% its prevalence chan"es dramatically over a"e( increasin" almost )*-fold temporarily durin" adolescence. This article su""ests that delin+uency conceals ! distinct cate"ories of individuals( each 'ith a uni+ue natural history and etiolo"y: A small "roup en"a"es in antisocial #ehavior of ) sort or another at every life sta"e( 'hereas a lar"er "roup is antisocial only durin" adolescence. Accordin" to the theory of 1ife-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior( children,s neuropsycholo"ical pro#lems interact cumulatively 'ith their crimino"enic environments across development( culminatin" in a patholo"ical 1 personality. Accordin" to the theory of adolescence-limited antisocial #ehavior( a contemporary maturity "ap encoura"es teens to mimic antisocial #ehavior in 'ays that are normative and ad-ustive.
.or/ on this article 'as supported #y the 0iolence and Traumatic 1tress Branch of the 2ational &nstitute of ental 3ealth $4rants 356758( 359*7*( and 35995:% and #y the Pro"ram on 3uman Development and Antisocial Behavior( a -oint pro-ect of the acArthur ;oundation and the 2ational &nstitute of <ustice. Durin" 'ritin"( & 'as hosted #y the &nstitute for Personality Assessment and =esearch of the >niversity of California at Ber/eley .ithout the persistent help of Avshalom Caspi( this article 'ould not have #een done. ?ther collea"ues also helped to hone the ideas: Thomas Achen#ach( =o#ert Cairns( ;elton Earls( David ;arrin"ton( Bill 3enry( Ben Lahev( =ichard Linster( =olf Loe#er( 4erald Patterson( 1teven =auden#usch( Al#ert =eiss( <r.( Lee =o#ins( =o#ert 1ampson( =ichard Trem#lay( Christy 0isher( and <ennifer .hite. Eric/a ?ver"ard prepared the fi"ures and edited the article. Correspondence concerning this article should #e addressed to Terrie E. offitt( Department of Psycholo"y( >niversity of .isconsin at adison( adison( .isconsin 967*8-)8)).
2 There are mar/ed individual differences in the sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior. any people #ehave antisocially( #ut their antisocial #ehavior is temporary and situational. &n contrast( the antisocial #ehavior of some people is very sta#le and persistent. Temporary( situational antisocial #ehavior is +uite common in the population( especially amon" adolescents. Persistent( sta#le antisocial #ehavior is found amon" a relatively small num#er of males 'hose #ehavior pro#lems are also +uite extreme. The central tenet of this article is that temporary versus persistent antisocial persons constitute t'o +ualitatively distinct types of persons. &n particular( & su""est that -uvenile delin+uency conceals t'o +ualitatively distinct cate"ories of individuals( each in need of its o'n distinct theoretical explanation. ?f course( systems for classifyin" types of antisocial persons have #een introduced #efore $e.".( American Psychiatric Association( )@:7A Chai/en B Chai/en( )@:5A 3are( 3art( B 3arpur( )@@)A <esness B 3aapanen( )@:!A Lahey et al.( )@@*A e"ar"ee( )@78A offitt( )@@*aA Cuay( )@88A .arren( )@8@%. 3o'ever( none of these classifications has ac+uired the ascendancy necessary to "uide mainstream criminolo"y and psycho-patholo"y research. &ndeed( D"eneralD theories of crime $e.".( 4ottfredson B 3irschi( )@@*%( comparisons of delin+uent versus nondelin+uent "roups $e.".( ;eehan( 1tanton( c4ee( 1ilva( B offitt( )@@*%( and arrayin" samples of su#-ects alon" antisocial dimensions $e.".( ;er"usson( 3or'ood( B Lloyd( )@@)% remain the status +uo. Previous antisocial classification schemes may have failed to capture the ima"inations of social scientists #ecause( althou"h they provided more or less accurate #ehavioral descriptions of antisocial su#types( they offered relatively little in the 'ay of etiolo"ical or predictive validity $orey( )@@)%. A classification #ecomes a taxonomy if it en"enders assertions a#out ori"ins and outcomes #y 'eavin" a nomolo"ical net of relationships #et'een the taxa and their correlates $eehl B 4olden( )@:!%. A taxon carries a 3 net'or/ of meanin" over and a#ove a #ehavioral descriptionA it includes implications for etiolo"y( course( pro"nosis( treatment( and relations 'ith other taxa. Previous classifications of antisocial #ehavior have not #een extended into theories( and Dit is theory that provides the "lue that holds a classification to"ether and "ives it #oth its scientific and its clinical relevanceD $illon( )@@)( p. !97A Cuine( )@77%. &n this article( & ela#orate on the distinction #et'een temporary and persistent antisocial #ehavior and offer a pair of ne' developmental theories of criminal #ehavior that are #ased on this distinction. The theories are accompanied #y refuta#le predictions. &f correct( this simple typolo"y can serve a po'erful or"aniE- in" function( 'ith important implications for theory and re- search on the causes of crime. ;or delin+uents 'hose criminal activity is confined to the adolescent years( the causal factors may #e proximal( specific to the period of adolescent development( and theory must account for the discontinuity in their lives. &n contrast( for persons 'hose adolescent delin+uency is merely one inflection in a continuous lifelon" antisocial course( a theory of antisocial #ehavior must locate its causal factors early in their childhoods and must explain the continuity in their trou#led lives. The dual taxonomy $and its t'o theories% that & propose in this article is #est introduced 'ith reference to the mysterious relationship #et'een a"e and antisocial #ehavior. This relationship is at once the most ro#ust and least understood empirical o#servation in the field of criminolo"y.
Age and Antisocial ehavio!
4 .hen official rates of crime are plotted a"ainst a"e( the rates for #oth prevalence and incidence of offendin" appear hi"hest durin" adolescenceA they pea/ sharply at a#out a"e )7 and drop precipitously in youn" adulthood. The ma-ority of criminal offenders are teena"ersA #y the early !*s( the num#er of active offenders decreases #y over 9*F( and #y a"e !:( almost :9F of former delin+uents desist from offendin" $Blumstein B Cohen( )@:7A ;arrin"ton( )@:8%. .ith sli"ht variations( this "eneral relationship #et'een a"e and crime o#tains amon" males and females( for most types of crimes( durin" recent historical periods and in numerous .estern nations $3irschi B 4ottfredson( )@:6%. A prototype of the empirical curve of criminal offenses over a"e is sho'n in ;i"ure ).
G;i"ure ).H
5
>ntil recently( research on a"e and crime has relied on official data( primarily arrest and conviction records. As a result( the left-hand side of the a"e-crime curve has #een censored. &ndeed( in many empirical comparisons #et'een early-onset and late-onset antisocial #ehavior( early has #een artifactually defined as mid-adolescence on the #asis of first police arrest or court conviction $cf. ;arrin"ton( Loe#er( Elliott( et al.( )@@*A Tolan( )@:7%. 3o'ever( research on childhood conduct disorder has no' documented that antisocial #ehavior #e"ins lon" #efore the a"e 'hen it is first encoded in police data #an/s. &ndeed( it is no' /no'n that the steep decline in antisocial #ehavior #et'een a"es )7 and 6* is mirrored #y a steep incline in antisocial #ehavior #et'een a"es 7 and )7 $Loe#er( 1touthamer-Loe#er( 0an 6 Iammen( B ;arrin"ton( )@:@A .olf"an"( ;i"lio( B 1ellin( )@7!%. This extension to the a"e-crime curve is plotted in ;i"ure !. ;urthermore( 'e may venture across disciplinary #oundaries to add developmental psycholo"ists, reports of childhood a""ression $Pepler B =u#in( )@@)% and mental health researchers, reports of conduct disorder $IaEdin( )@:7% to criminolo"ists, studies of self-reported delin+uency and official crime. 1o doin"( it #ecomes o#vious that manifestations of antisocial #ehavior emer"e very early in the life course and remain present thereafter. .ith the advent of alternate measurement strate"ies( most nota#ly self-reports of deviant #ehavior( researchers have learned that arrest statistics merely reflect the tip of the deviance ice#er" $3ood B 1par/s( )@7*A Ilein( )@:@%. Actual rates of ille"al #ehavior soar so hi"h durin" adolescence that participation in delin+uency appears to #e a normal part of teen life $Elliott( A"eton( 3uiEin"a( Ino'les( B Canter( )@:6%. .ith the li#erty of some artistic license( the curved line plotted in ;i"ure 6 may #e ta/en to represent 'hat is currently /no'n a#out the prevalence of antisocial #ehaviors over the life course.
7 G;i"ure !.H
Althou"h there is 'idespread a"reement a#out the curve of crime over a"e( there are fe' convincin" explanations for the shape of the curve. >ntil recently( scholars still disa"reed a#out 'hether the adolescent pea/ represented a chan"e in prevalence or a chan"e in incidence: Does adolescence #rin" an increment in the num#er of people 'ho are 'illin" to 8 offend or does the small and constant num#er of offenders simply "enerate more criminal acts 'hile they are adolescentJ Empirical evaluations no' su""est that the former explanation is correct. &n his En"lish study of offense rates over a"e( ;arrin"ton $)@:6% sho'ed that the adolescent pea/ reflects a temporary increase in the num#er of people involved in antisocial #ehavior( not a temporary acceleration in the offense rates of individuals. This findin" has #een replicated in American samples $.olf"an"( Thorn#erry( B ;i"lio( )@:7%. The small human fi"ures under the curve of ;i"ure 6 portray these chan"es in prevalence. But 'hence the increase in the prevalence of offendersJ ?ne possi#ility is that some phenomenon uni+ue to adolescent development causes thron"s of ne' adolescent offenders to temporarily -oin the fe' sta#le antisocial individuals in their delin+uent 'ays. ;i"ure 6 depicts the typolo"ical thesis to #e ar"ued here. A small "roup of persons is sho'n en"a"in" in antisocial #ehavior of one sort or another at every sta"e of life. & have la#eled these persons life-course-persistent to reflect the continuous course of their antisocial #ehavior. A lar"er "roup of persons fills out the a"e-crime curve 'ith crime careers of shorter duration. & have la#eled these persons adolescence-limited to reflect their more temporary involvement in antisocial #ehavior. Thus( timin" and duration of the course of antisocial involvement are the definin" features in the natural histories of the t'o proposed types of offenders.
G;i"ure 6.H
9
T'o oft-cited rules of thum# asserted #y =o#ins $)@7:% seem to simultaneously assert and deny the life-course sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior: DAdult antisocial #ehaviour virtually requires childhood antisocial #ehaviour GyetH most antisocial youths do not #ecome antisocial adultsD $p. 8))%. &n fact( research has sho'n that antisocial #ehavior is remar/a#ly sta#le across time and circumstance for some persons #ut decidedly unsta#le for most other people. The sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior is closely lin/ed to its ex- tremity. The extreme fre+uency of crime committed #y a very fe' males is impressiveA it has #een repeatedly sho'n that the most persistent 9F or 8F of offenders are responsi#le for a#out 9*F of /no'n crimes $see ;arrin"ton( ?hlin( B .ilson( )@:8( for a revie'%. &n their study of )*(*** men( .olf"an" et al. $)@7!% found that 8F of 10 offenders accounted for more than half of the crimes committed #y the sampleA relative to other offenders( these hi"h-rate offenders #e"an their criminal careers earlier and continued them for more years. The relationship #et'een sta#ility and extremity is found in samples of children as 'ell. &n his analysis of a sample of third-"rade #oys( Patterson $)@:!% found that the most a""ressive 9F of the #oys constituted the most persistent "roup as 'ellA 6@F of them ran/ed a#ove the @9th percentile on a""ression )* years later( and )**F of them 'ere still a#ove the median. 1imilarly( Loe#er $)@:!% has revie'ed research sho'in" that sta#ility of youn"sters, antisocial #ehavior across time is lin/ed 'ith sta#ility across situations 11 and that #oth forms of sta#ility are characteristic of a relatively small "roup of persons 'ith extremely antisocial #ehavior. Thus( in defiance of re"ression to the mean( a "roup of ex- tremely antisocial persons remain extreme on measures ta/en at later a"es and in different situations. Amon" other persons( ho'ever( temporary and situational manifestations of antisocial #ehavior $even to severe levels% may #e +uite common. This point is vividly illustrated in a lon"itudinal investi"ation of a representative cohort of )(*67 2e' Kealand children #orn in )@7!-)@76. &n this sample( & compared the #ase rates of persistent and temporary antisocial #ehavior pro#lems $offitt( )@@)%. & identified a "roup of #oys 'hose antisocial #ehavior 'as rated a#ove avera"e at each of seven #iennial assessments $a"es 6( 9( 7( @( ))( )6( and )9%. The #oys 'ere also rated as very antisocial #y three different reportin" a"ents $parents( teachers( and self%. ;ive percent of the #oys in the sample met these selection criteria. As a "roup( their mean antisocial ratin"s 'ere more than a standard deviation a#ove the norm for #oys at every a"e. &n contrast( fully t'o thirds of the remainin" #oys 'ere rated a#ove avera"e on antisocial chec/lists as 'ell #ut at only one or t'o a"es or #y only one reporter( illustratin" that sta#ility cannot #e inferred from cross-sectional measures of extremity $3enry( offitt( =o#ins( Earls( B 1ilva( )@@6%. A disproportionate amount of the measured sta#ility in the 2e' Kealand sample could #e attri#uted to the 9F of #oys 'hose antisocial #ehavior 'as #oth extreme and consistent. ;or example( 'hen these fe' #oys 'ere excluded from calculations( the :-year sta#ility coefficient for teacher ratin"s 'as reduced from .!: (R L .*7:% to .)8 (R L . *!9%( indicatin" that 9F of the sample accounted for 8:F of the sample,s sta#ility. $&f antisocial #ehavior had #een a sta#le characteristic throu"hout the sample( 'ith most #oys 12 retainin" their relative standin" in the "roup across time( then excludin" the top 9F of the sample should not have affected the sta#ility coefficient.% &n summary( there appear to #e note'orthy individual differences in the sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior. I have already alluded to the small number of persons in the general population whose antisocial behavior is life-course-persistent. In fact, epidemiological research has shown that there is remarkable uniformity in the prevalence rates of different manifestations of severe antisocial behavior: Regardless of their age, under 10 of males warrant an !official! antisocial designation. "or e#ample, about $ of preschool boys are considered by their parents or caretakers to be !very difficult to manage! %&c'ee, (artridge, )illiams, * +ilva, 1,,1-. .he prevalence of conduct disorder among elementary-school-aged boys has been found to be between / and , in several countries %0ostello, 1,1,2 Rutter, .i3ard, * )hitmore, 1,40-. 5bout 6 of boys are first arrested by police as preteens %&offitt * +ilva, 1,11c2 )olfgang et al., 1,47-2 such early arrest is important because it is the best predictor of long-term recidivistic offending. .he rate of conviction for a violent offense in young adult males is between 8 and 6 %&offitt, &ednick, * 'abrielli, 1,1,-, and about / of male adolescents self-report sustained careers of serious violence %three or more violent offenses per year for $ years2 9lliott, :ui3inga, * &orse, 1,16-. "inally, the prevalence of men with antisocial personality disorder is estimated at about / to $ %;avison * <eale, 1,,02 Robins, 1,1$-. &t is possi#le( of course( that the persons 'ho constitute these epidemiolo"ical statistics at different a"es are all different individuals. 3o'ever( the lon"itudinal data su""est other'ise: &t is more li/ely that the remar/a#le constancy of prevalence rates reflects the reoccurrence of the same life-course-persistent individuals in different antisocial cate"ories at different a"es. =o#ins $)@88( )@7:% has sho'n that there are virtually no su#-ects 'ith adult antisocial 13 personality disorder 'ho did not also have conduct disorder as children. .hite( offitt( Earls( =o#ins( and 1ilva $)@@*% found nota#le continuity from diso#edient and a""ressive #ehavior at a"e 6 to later childhood conduct disorder and thence to arrest #y police in the early teen years. Loe#er $)@:!% revie'ed research that pinpoints a first arrest #et'een a"es 7 and )) as particularly important for predictin" lon"-term adult offendin". 3are and cPherson $)@:5% have reported that a conviction for violence in the early !*s is characteristic of almost all men 'ho #ecome dia"nosed 'ith antisocial $psychopathic% personality disorder. There are still "aps in the epidemiolo"ical data#aseA each of the earlier cited studies connected only t'o or three points in the life course. 2onetheless( the consistency is impressive: A su#stantial #ody of lon"itudinal research consistently points to a very small "roup of males 'ho display hi"h rates of antisocial #ehavior across time and in diverse situations. The professional nomenclature may chan"e( #ut the faces remain the same as they drift throu"h successive systems aimed at cur#in" their deviance: schools( -uvenile--ustice pro"rams( psychiatric treatment centers( and prisons. The topo"raphy of their #ehavior may chan"e 'ith chan"in" opportunities( #ut the underlyin" disposition persists throu"hout the life course. .hereas a fe' males evidence antisocial #ehavior that emer"es in toddlerhood and is persistent thereafter( the ma-ority of #oys 'ho #ecome antisocial first do so durin" adolescence $Elliott( Ino'les( B Canter( )@:)%. This tidal 'ave of adolescent onset has #een studied in the aforementioned representative sample of 2e' Kealand #oys $offitt( )@@)%. Bet'een a"es )) and )9( a#out one third of the sample -oined the delin+uent lifestyles of the 9F of #oys 'ho had sho'n sta#le and pervasive antisocial #ehavior since preschool. As a "roup( these adolescent ne'comers to antisocial 'ays had not formerly exceeded the normative 14 levels of antisocial #ehavior for #oys at a"es 6( 9( 7( @( or )). Despite their lac/ of prior experience( #y a"e )9( the ne'comers e+ualed their preschool-onset antisocial peers in the variety of la's they had #ro/en( the fre+uency 'ith 'hich they #ro/e them( and the num#er of times they appeared in -uvenile court $offitt( )@@)%. ?n the #asis of such common)y used indexes( of adolescent delin+uency( the t'o delin+uent "roups 'ere indistin"uisha#le. Thus( if the sample 'as vie'ed only as an adolescent cross section( researchers 'ould lose si"ht of the t'o delin+uent "roups, very different developmental histories( seein" only delin+uents and nondelin+uents. &ndeed( researchers and practitioners cannot yet effectively assi"n individual delin+uent adolescents to meanin"ful su#- types on the #asis of cross-sectional DsnapshotsD of their antisocial #ehavior durin" adolescence $Loe#er B LeBlanc( )@@*A offitt( )@@*a%. A"ain( the 2e' Kealand sample provides an example: At a"e )9( #oth the childhood-persistent and adolescent-onset "roups had mem#ers 'ho scored more than 9 standard deviations a#ove the mean on self-report delin+uency( and #y a"e )@ #oth "roups had some mem#ers 'ith more than 9* convictions for crimes in the 2e' Kealand courts. Elliott and 3uiEin"a $)@:5% reported similarly poor classification in a representative sample of American teens. They attempted to discriminate( at the time of first arrest( individual future career offenders from adolescence-limited offenders. Discrimination could not #e improved #eyond chance #y enterin" the /inds of information typically availa#le to officials: type of current offense( a"e( sex( race( class( involvement 'ith delin+uent peers( and attitudes to'ard deviance. Addition of measures of the extremity of self-reported delin+uency and emotional pro#lems improved prediction only 7F #eyond chance. Earlier( & noted that the sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior implies its extremity #ut that extremity does not imply sta#ility( measures of the fre- +uency or seriousness of adolescent offendin" 'ill not 15 discriminate very 'ell #et'een life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited delin+uents. ?n the #asis of their study and others( Elliott and 3uiEin"a concluded that there is Dno effective means for discriminatin" #et'een the serious career offenders and nonserious offendersD $p. @:%. A nota#le feature of the taxonomy introduced in this article is that /no'led"e of a su#-ect,s preadolescent #ehavior is required for ma/in" the differential dia"nosis #et'een the life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited types of antisocial teena"er. Lon"itudinal desi"ns are needed to collect the lifetime repeated measures that are needed to distin"uish individual differences in the developmental course of antisocial #ehavior.GiH & have ar"ued in this section that -uvenile delin+uency con- ceals t'o cate"ories of people. A very lar"e "roup participates in antisocial #ehavior durin" adolescence. A much smaller "roup( 'ho continues serious antisocial #ehavior throu"hout adulthood( is the same "roup 'hose antisocial #ehavior 'as sta#le across the years from early childhood. The cate"ories remain hypothetical types( #ecause no lon"itudinal study has yet repeatedly measured antisocial #ehavior in a representative sample of the same individuals from preschool to midlife. & descri#e in the next sections the t'o hypothetical types of antisocial youth: life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited. & ar"ue that the t'o "roups differ in etiolo"y( developmental course( pro"nosis( and( importantly( classification of their #ehavior as either patholo"ical or normative. The "oal of this article is to proffer a description of the t'o types in the form of a set of testa#le predictions.
Life-Course-Persistent Antisocial Behavior
16 y account of the life-course-persistent antisocial type fol- lo's this plan: &n the first section( Continuity of Antisocial Behavior Defined, & provide a definition and description of persistent antisocial #ehavior. &n the second section( Beginnings !europsychological Ris" for Difficult #emperament and Behavioral $ro%lems, & present the hypothesis that persistent antisocial #ehavior has its ori"ins in an interaction #et'een children,s neuropsycholo"ical vulnera#ilities and crimino"enic environments. &n the third section( &aintenance and 'la%oration (ver the )ife Course Cumulative Continuity Contemporary Continuity, and !arro*ing (ptions for Change, & introduce the cumulative and contemporary processes that maintain antisocial #ehavior across time and that expand antisocial #ehavior into a pervasive adult life-style. &n the fourth section( & summariEe the theory,s perspective on continuity( and in the fifth section( & ma/e a case that life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior is a form of psychopatholo"y.
Continuity of Antisocial Behavior Defined
As implied #y the la#el( continuity is the hallmar/ of the small "roup of life-course-persistent antisocial persons. Across( the life course( these individuals exhi#it chan"in" manifestations of antisocial #ehavior: #itin" and hittin" at a"e 5( shopliftin" and truancy at a"e )*( sellin" dru"s and stealin" cars at a"e )8( ro##ery and rape at a"e !!( and fraud and child a#use at a"e 6*A the underlyin" disposition remains the same( #ut its expression chan"es form as ne' social opportunities arise at different points in development. This pattern of continuity across a"e is matched also #y cross-situational consistency: Life-course-persistent antisocial persons lie at home( steal from shops( cheat at school( fi"ht in #ars( and em#eEEle at 'or/ $;arrin"ton( 17 )@@)A Loe#er( )@:!A Loe#er B Baic/er-cIee( )@:@A =o#ins( )@88( )@7:A .hite et al.( )@@*%. The concept of #ehavioral coherence( or heterotypic continuity, is invo/ed here to extend o#servations of continuity #eyond the mere persistence of a sin"le #ehavior to encompass a variety of antisocial expressions that emer"e as development affords ne' opportunities. 3eterotypic continuity refers to continuity of an inferred trait or attri#ute that is presumed to underlie diverse phenotypic #ehaviors $Ia"an( )@8@%. As Ia"an and oss $)@8!% su""ested( a specific #ehavior in childhood mi"ht not #e predictive of phenotypically similar #ehavior later in adulthood( #ut it may still #e associated 'ith #ehaviors that are conceptually consistent 'ith the earlier #ehavior. Examples of heterotypic continuities have #een reported #y =yder $)@87%( 'ho found that childhood a""ression( physical adventurousness( and nonconformity 'ere related to adult sexual #ehavior. Another example of coherence is provided in a !!-year follo'-up study of men and 'omen 'ho had #een rated as a""ressive #y their peers in late childhood $3uesmann( Eron( Lef/o'itE( B .alder( )@:5%. As adults( the men 'ere li/ely to commit serious criminal acts( a#use their spouses( and drive 'hile intoxicated( 'hereas the 'omen 'ere li/ely to punish their offsprin" severely. Another example of personality coherence is the findin" that the developmental antecedents of erratic 'or/ histories may #e found in phenotypically dissimilar attri#utes of difficult temperament in childhood $Caspi( Elder( B Bem( )@:7%. &n addition( in their hallmar/ study( .est and ;arrin"ton $)@77% o#served that stealin"( alcohol a#use( sexual promiscuity( rec/less drivin"( and violence 'ere lin/ed across the life course. The pro"nosis for the life-course-persistent person is #lea/: Dru" and alcohol addiction: unsatisfactory em- ployment( unpaid de#tsA homelessnessA drun/ drivin"A violent assaultA multiple and unsta#le relationshipsA spouse #atteryA a#andoned( ne"lected( or a#used childrenA and 18 psychiatric illness have all #een reported at very hi"h rates for offenders 'ho persist past the a"e of !9 (+arrington , -est, )@@*A =o#ins( )@88A 1ampson B Lau#( )@@*%. Thus( this theory of life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior predicts continuity across the entire life course #ut allo's that the underlying disposition 'ill chan"e its manifestation 'hen a"e and social circumstances alter opportunities. Althou"h reports of the continuity of antisocial styles from childhood to youn" adulthood a#ound( the outcomes of antisocial individuals durin" midlife have seldom #een examined. The pattern of official crime over a"e $;i"ure )% implies that criminal offendin" all #ut disappears #y midlife( GiiH #ut there is no reason to expect that life-course-persistents miraculously assume prosocial tendencies after an antisocial tenure of several decades. &ndeed( criminal psychopaths decrease their num#er of arresta#le offenses at a#out a"e 5*( #ut the constellation of antisocial personality traits descri#ed #y Clec/ley $)@78% persists in male samples at least until a"e 8@ $3arpur B 3are( )@@)%. As & ar"ue in the third section of this article (&aintenance., an analysis of the cumulative developmental forces underlyin" the continuity of a""ression from childhood to adulthood 'ill predict continuity on into midlife as 'ell. Beyond youn" adulthood( the antisocial disposition of life-course-persistents may #e expressed in a form that is simply not yet 'ell measured #y epidemiolo"ical surveys of official crime: ?ne such possi#ility is ne"lect and a#use of family mem#ers. Consistent 'ith this hypothesis( ;arrin"ton and .est $)@@*% found that half of the persistent offenders in the Cam#rid"e lon"itudinal study self-reported havin" hit their spouses 'hen they 'ere intervie'ed at a"e 6!. ;a"an and .exler $)@:7% revie'ed studies sho'in" that spouse #attery is often preceded #y a history of violence a"ainst stran"ers. Also( crime statistics sho' that( 'hereas property crimes pea/ in the teen years and drop thereafter( family violence offenses sho' a steady increase 'ith a"e $4ottfredson B 3irschi( )@:8%. =esearch is needed that 19 follo's offenders into late adulthood 'hile measurin" multiple indicators of an antisocial life-style.
Beginnings !europsychological Ris" for Difficult #emperament and Behavioral $ro%lems
&f some individuals, antisocial #ehavior is sta#le from pre- school to adulthood as the data imply( then investi"ators are compelled to loo/ for its roots early in life( in factors that are present #efore or soon after #irth. &t is possi#le that the etiolo"ical chain #e"ins 'ith some factor capa#le of producin" individual differences in the neuropsycholo"ical functions of the infant nervous system. ;actors that influence infant neural development are myriad( and many of them have #een empirically lin/ed to antisocial outcomes. ?ne possi#le source of neuropsycholo"ical variation that is lin/ed to pro#lem #ehavior is disruption in the onto"enesis of the fetal #rain. inor physical anomalies( 'hich are thou"ht to #e o#serva#le mar/ers for hidden anomalies in neural development( have #een found at elevated rates amon" violent offenders and su#-ects 'ith antisocial personality traits $;o"el( ednic/( B ichelson( )@:9A E. Iandel( Brennan( B ednic/( )@:@A Paulhus B artin( )@:8%. 2eural development may #e disrupted #y maternal dru" a#use( poor prenatal nutrition( or pre-or postnatal exposure to toxic a"ents $2eedleman B Berin"er( )@:)A =odnin"( Bec/'ith( B 3o'ard( )@:@A 1te'art( )@:6%. Even #rain insult suffered #ecause of complications durin" delivery has #een empirically lin/ed to later violence and antisocial #ehavior in carefully desi"ned lon"itudinal studies $E. Iandel B ednic/( )@@)A 1Eatmari( =eitsma-1treet( B ?fford( )@:8%. &n addition( some individual differences in neuropsycholo"ical health are herita#le in ori"in $Borec/i B 20 Ashton( )@:5A artin( <ardine( B Eaves( )@:5A Plomin( 2itE( B =o'e( )@@*A Tam#s( 1undet( B a"nus. )@:5: 0anden#er"( )@8@%. <ust as parents and children share facial resem#lances( they share some structural and functional similarities 'ithin their nervous systems. After #irth( neural development may #e disrupted #y neonatal deprivation of nutrition( stimulation( and even affection $Cravioto B Arrieta( )@:6A Iraemer( )@::A eany( Ait/en( van Ber/el( Bhatna"ar( B 1apols/y( )@::%. 1ome studies have pointed to child a#use and ne"lect as possi#le sources of #rain in-ury in the histories of delin+uents 'ith neuropsycholo"ical impairment $Le'is( 1hano/( Pincus( B 4laser( )@7@A ilner B cCanne( )@@)A Tarter( 3e"edus( .insten( B Alterman( )@:5%. There is "ood evidence that children 'ho ultimately #ecome persistently antisocial do suffer from deficits in neuropsycholo"ical a#ilities. & have else'here revie'ed the availa#le empirical and theoretical literaturesA the lin/ #et'een neuropsycholo"ical impairment and antisocial outcomes is one of the most ro#ust effects in the study of antisocial #ehavior $offitt( )@@*#A offitt B 3enry( )@@)A see also 3irschi B 3indelan"( )@77%. T'o sorts of neuropsycholo"ical deficits are empirically associated 'ith antisocial #ehavior: ver#al and DexecutiveD functions. The ver#al deficits of antisocial children are pervasive( affectin" receptive listenin" and readin"( pro#lem solvin"( expressive speech and 'ritin"( and memory. &n addition( executive deficits produce 'hat is sometimes referred to as a comportmental learnin" disa#ility $Price( Daffner( 1to'e( B esulam( )@@*%( includin" symptoms such as inattention and impulsivity. These co"nitive deficits and antisocial #ehavior share variance that is independent of social class( race( test motivation( and academic attainment $offitt( )@@*#A Lynam( offitt( B 1touthamer-Loe#er( )@@6%. &n addition( the relation is not an artifact of slo''itted delin+uents, "reater suscepti#ility to detection #y policeA undetected delin+uents have 'ea/ co"nitive s/ills too $offitt B 1ilva( )@::a%. 21 The evidence is stron" that neuropsycholo"ical deficits are lin/ed to the /ind of antisocial #ehavior that #e"ins in child- hood and is sustained for len"thy periods. &n a series of articles $offitt( )@@*aA offitt B 3enry( )@:@A offitt B 1ilva( )@::#%( & have sho'n that poor ver#al and executive functions are associated 'ith antisocial #ehavior( if it is extreme and persistent. &n these studies( adolescent 2e' Kealand #oys 'ho exhi#ited symptoms of #oth conduct disorder and attention-deficit disorder 'ith hyperactivity $ADD3% scored very poorly on neuropsycholo"ical tests of ver#al and executive functions and had histories of extreme antisocial #ehavior that persisted from a"e 6 to a"e )9. Apparently( their neuropsycholo"ical deficits 'ere as lon" standin" as their antisocial #ehaviorA at a"es 6 and 9 these #oys had scored more than a standard deviation #elo' the a"e norm for #oys on the Bayley and cCarthy tests of motor coordination and on the 1tanford-Binet test of co"nitive performance. Contrast "roups of #oys 'ith sin"le dia"noses of either conduct disorder or ADD3 did not have neuropsycholo"ical deficits or co"nitive-motor delays( #ut neither 'ere their #ehavior pro#lems sta#le over time. &n a study desi"ned to improve on measurement of executive functions $.hite( offitt( Caspi( <e"lum( 2eedles( B 1touthamer-Loe#er( in press%( 'e "athered data on self-control and impulsivity for 56* Pitts#ur"h youths. T'elve measures 'ere ta/en from multiple sources $mother( teacher( self( and o#server% #y usin" multiple methods $ratin" scales( performance tests( computer "ames( C sorts( and videotaped o#servations%. A linear composite of the impulsivity measures 'as stron"ly related to the 6-year lon"evity of antisocial #ehavior( even after controllin" for &C( race( and social class. Boys 'ho 'ere very delin+uent from a"es )* to )6 scored si"nificantly hi"her on impulsivity than #oth their nondelin+uent and temporarily delin+uent a"e-mates. Ta/en to"ether( the 2e' Kealand and Pitts#ur"h lon"itudinal studies su""est that neuropsycholo"ical dys- functions that manifest themselves as poor scores on tests 22 of lan"ua"e and self-control--and as the inattentive( overactive( and impulsive symptoms of ADD3--are lin/ed 'ith the early childhood emer"ence of a""ressive antisocial #ehavior and 'ith its su#se+uent persistence. !europsychological variation and the /difficult / infant0 Before descri#in" ho' neuropsycholo"ical variation mi"ht constitute ris/ for antisocial #ehavior( it is useful to define 'hat is meant here #y neuropsycholo"ical. By com#inin" neuro 'ith psychological, & refer #roadly to the extent to 'hich anatomical structures and physiolo"ical processes 'ithin the nervous system influence psycholo"ical characteristics such as temperament( #ehavioral development( co"nitive a#ilities( or all three. ;or example( individual variation in #rain function may en"ender differences #et'een children in activity level( emotional re- activity( or self-re"ulation $temperament%A speech( motor coordination( or impulse control $#ehavioral development%A and attention( lan"ua"e( learnin"( memory( or reasonin" $co"nitive a#ilities%. Children 'ith neurolo"ical difficulties severe enou"h to con- stitute autism( severe physical handicap( or profound mental retardation are usually identified and specially treated #y parents and professionals. 3o'ever( other infants have su#clinical levels of pro#lems that affect the difficulty of rearin" them( variously referred to as difficult temperament( lan"ua"e or motor delays( or mild co"nitive deficits. Compromised neuropsycholo"ical functions are associated 'ith a variety of conse+uences for infants, co"nitive and motor development as 'ell as for their personality development $=oth#art B Derry#erry( )@:)%. Toddlers 'ith su#tle neuropsycholo"ical deficits may #e clumsy and a'/'ard( overactive( inattentive( irrita#le( impulsive( hard to /eep on schedule( delayed in reachin" developmental mile- stones( poor at ver#al comprehension( deficient at expressin" themselves( or slo' at learnin" ne' thin"s 23 $=utter( )@77( )@:6A Thomas B Chess( )@77A .ender( )@7)%. 3ertEi" $)@:6% has descri#ed an empirical test of the pro- posed relationship #et'een neurolo"ical dama"e and difficult #ehavior in infancy. 1he studied a sample of 88 lo'-#irth-'ei"ht infants from intact middle-class families. 1ymptoms of #rain dysfunction detected durin" neurolo"ical examinations 'ere si"nificantly related to an index of difficult temperament ta/en at a"es )( !( and 6 $Thomas B Chess( )@77A the index comprised rhythmicity( adapta#ility( approach-'ithdra'al( intensity( and mood%. The parents of the children 'ith neurolo"ical impairment and difficult temperament more often sou"ht help from child psychiatrists as their children "re' up( and the most fre- +uent presentin" complaints 'ere immaturity( overactivity( temper tantrums( poor attention( and poor school performance. Each of these childhood pro#lems has #een lin/ed #y research to later antisocial outcomes $cf. offitt( )@@*a( )@@*#%. &mportantly( the impairments of the children 'ith neural dama"e 'ere not massiveA their mean &C score 'as @8 $only 5 points #elo' the population mean%. 3ertEi",s study sho'ed that even su#tle neurolo"ical deficits can influence an infant,s temperament and #ehavior( the difficulty of rearin" the infant( and #ehavioral pro#lems in later childhood.
Child-environment covariation in nature A source of interactional continuity0 1p to this point( & have emphasiEed in this article the characteristics of the developin" child as if environments 'ere held constant. >nfortunately( children 'ith co"nitive and temperamental disadvanta"es are not "enerally #orn into supportive environments( nor do they even "et a fair chance of #ein" randomly assi"ned to "ood or #ad environments. >nli/e the aforementioned infants in 3ertEi",s $)@:6% study of temperament and neurolo"ical 24 symptoms( most lo'-#irth 'ei"ht infants are not #orn into intact( middle-class families. 0ulnera#le infants are disproportionately found in environ- ments that 'ill not #e ameliorative #ecause many sources of neural maldevelopment co-occur 'ith family disadvanta"e or deviance. &ndeed( #ecause some characteristics of parents and children tend to #e correlated( parents of children 'ho are at ris/ for antisocial #ehavior often inadvertently provide their children 'ith crimino"enic environments $1ameroff B Chandler( )@79%. The inter"enerational transmission of severe antisocial #ehavior has #een carefully documented in a study of three "enerations $3uesmann et al.( )@:5%. &n that study of 8** su#-ects( the sta#ility of individuals, a""ressive #ehavior from a"e : to a"e 6* 'as exceeded #y the sta#ility of a""ression across the "enerations: from "randparent to parent to child. Thus( 'ith re"ard to ris/ for antisocial #ehavior( nature does not follo' a ! M ! desi"n 'ith e+ual cell siEes. Parents and children resem#le each other on temperament and personality. Thus( parents of children 'ho are difficult to mana"e often lac/ the necessary psycholo"ical and physical resources to cope constructively 'ith a difficult child $1carr B cCartney( )@:6A 1nyder B Patterson( )@:7%. ;or example( temperamental traits such as activity level and irrita#ility are /no'n to #e partly herita#le $Plomin( Chipuer( B Loehlin( )@@*%. This su""ests that children 'hose hyperactivity and an"ry out#ursts mi"ht #e cur#ed #y firm discipline 'ill tend to have parents 'ho are inconsistent disciplinariansA the parents tend to #e impatient and irrita#le too. The converse is also true: Empirical evidence has #een found for a relationship #et'een variations in parents, 'armth and infants, easiness $Plomin( Chipuer( B Loehlin( )@@*%. 25 Parents and children also resem#le each other on co"nitive a#ility. The /no'n herita#ility of measured intelli"ence $Plomin( )@@*A Loehlin( )@:@% implies that children 'ho are most in need of remedial co"nitive stimulation 'ill have parents 'ho may #e least a#le to provide it. oreover( parents, co"nitive a#ilities set limits on their o'n educational and occupational attainment $Barrett B Depinet( )@@)%. As one conse+uence, families 'hose mem#ers have #elo'-avera"e co"nitive capacities 'ill often #e least a#le financially to o#tain professional interventions or optimal remedial schoolin" for their at-ris/ children. Even the social and structural aspects of the environment may #e stac/ed a"ainst children 'ho enter the 'orld at ris/. Plomin and Ber"eman $)@@*% have sho'n that there are "enetic components to measures that are commonly used #y developmental psycholo"ists to assess socialiEation environments. ;or example( the 3ome ?#servation for easurement of the Environment scale( the oos ;amily Environment scales( and the 3olmes and =ahe scales of stressful life events all revealed the influence of herita#le factors 'hen they 'ere examined 'ith #ehavior "enetic research desi"ns $Plomin B Ber"eman( )@@*%. 0ulnera#le children are often su#-ect to adverse homes and nei"h#orhoods #ecause their parents are vulnera#le to pro#lems too $cf. Lahey et al.( )@@*%. &mportantly( althou"h examples from #ehavior "enetics research have #een cited in the previous three para"raphs( the perverse compoundin" of children,s vulnera#ilities 'ith their families, imperfections does not re+uire that the child,s neuropsycholo"ical ris/ arise from any "enetic disposition. &n fact( for my purposes( it is immaterial 'hether parent-child similarities arise from shared "enes or shared homes. A home environment 'herein prenatal care is haphaEard( 26 dru"s are used durin" pre"nancy( and infants, nutritional needs are ne"lected is a settin" 'here sources of children,s neuropsycholo"ical dysfunction that are clearly environmental coexist 'ith a crimino"enic social environment. $ro%lem child-pro%lem parent interactions and the emer- gence of antisocial %ehaviors0 & #elieve that the -uxtaposition of a vulnera#le and difficult infant 'ith an adverse rearin" context initiates ris/ for the life-course-persistent pattern of antisocial #ehavior. The ensuin" process is a transactional one in 'hich the challen"e of copin" 'ith a difficult child evo/es a chain of failed parent-child encounters $1ameroff B Chandler( )@79%. The assertion that children exert important effects on their social environments is useful in understandin" this hypothetical process $Bell B Chapman( )@:8%. &t is no' 'idely ac/no'led"ed that personality and #ehavior are shaped in lar"e measure #y interactions #et'een the person and the environment $cf. Buss( )@:7A Plomin( De;ries( B Loehlin( )@77A 1carr B cCartney( )@:6%. ?ne form of interaction may play a particularly important role #oth in promotin" an antisocial style and in maintainin" its continuity across the life course: 'vocative interaction occurs 'hen a child,s #ehavior evo/es distinctive responses from others $Caspi et al.( )@:7%. Children 'ith neuropsycholo"ical pro#lems evo/e a chal- len"e to even the most resourceful( lovin"( and patient families. ;or example( Tinsley and Par/e $)@:6% have revie'ed literature sho'in" that lo'-#irth-'ei"ht( premature infants ne"atively influence the #ehavior of their careta/ersA they arrive #efore parents are prepared( their cryin" patterns are rated as more distur#in" and irritatin"( and parents report that they are less satisfyin" to feed( less pleasant to hold( and more demandin" to care for than healthy #a#ies. any parents of preterm infants hold unrealistic expectations a#out their children,s attainment of developmental milestones( and these may contri#ute to later 27 dysfunctional parent-child relationships $Tinsley B Par/e( )@:6%. ore distur#in"( an infant,s neurolo"ical health status has #een sho'n to #e related to ris/ for maltreatment and ne"lect $;riedrich B Boris/in( )@78: ;rodi et al.( )@7:A 3unter( Iilstrom( Iray#ill( B Loda( )@7:A ilo'e B Lo'rie( )@85A 1and"rund( 4aines( B 4reen( )@75%. 2umerous studies have sho'n that a toddler,s pro#lem #e- haviors may affect the parents, disciplinary strate"ies as 'ell as su#se+uent interactions 'ith adults and peers $Bell B Chapman( )@:8A Chess B Thomas( )@:7%. ;or example( children characteriEed #y a difficult temperament in infancy are more li/ely to resist their mothers, efforts to control them in early childhood $Lee B Bates( )@:9%. 1imilarly( mothers of difficult #oys experience more pro#lems in their efforts to socialiEe their children. acco#y and <ac/lin $)@:6% sho'ed that over time these mothers reduce their efforts to actively "uide and direct their children,s #ehavior and #ecome increasin"ly less involved in the teachin" process. &n a study of unrelated mothers and children( I. E. Anderson( Lytton( and =omney $)@:8% o#served conduct-disordered and nonpro#lem #oys interactin" 'ith mothers of conduct-disordered and nonpro#lem sons in unrelated pairs. The conduct-disordered #oys evo/ed more ne"ative reactions from #oth types of mothers than did normal #oys( #ut the t'o types of mothers did not differ from each other in their ne"ative reactions. &t may 'ell #e that early #ehavioral difficulties contri#ute to the development of persistent antisocial #ehavior #y evo/in" responses from the interpersonal social environment( responses that exacer#ate the child,s tendencies $4oldsmith( Bradsha'( B =ieser-Danner( )@:8A Lytton( )@@*%. DThe child actsA the environment reactsA and the child reacts #ac/ in mutually interloc/in" evocative interactionD $Caspi et al.( )@:7( p. 6*:%. 1uch a se+uence of interactions 'ould #e most li/ely to pro- duce lastin" antisocial #ehavior pro#lems if careta/er 28 reactions 'ere more li/ely to exacer#ate than to ameliorate children,s pro#lem #ehavior. To my /no'led"e( students of child effects have not yet tested for interactions #et'een child #ehavior and parental deviance or poor parentin"( perhaps #ecause very disadvanta"ed families are seldom studied 'ith such desi"ns. 2onetheless( some data su""est that children,s predispositions to'ard antisocial #ehavior may #e exacer#ated under deviant rearin" conditions. &n the 2e' Kealand lon"itudinal study( there 'as a si"nificant interaction effect #et'een children,s neuropsycholo"ical deficit and family adversity on one type of delin+uent actA a""ressive confrontation 'ith a victim or adversary. Amon" the 968 #oys in the sample( the 79 #oys 'ho had #oth lo' neuropsycholo"ical test scores and adverse home environments earned a mean a""ression score more than four times "reater than that of #oys 'ith either neuropsycholo"ical pro#lems or adverse homes $offitt( )@@*#%. The index of family adversity included parental characteristics such as poor mental health and lo' intelli"ence as 'ell as socioeconomic status. Behavior"enetic adoption studies of antisocial #ehavior often report a similar pattern of findin"s( 'herein the hi"hest rates of criminal outcomes are found for adoptees 'hose foster parents( as 'ell as their #iolo"ical parents( 'ere deviant $e.".( ednic/( 4a#rielli( B 3utchin"s( )@:5%. Thus( children,s predispositions may evo/e exacer#atin" responses from the environment and may also render them more vulnera#le to crimino"enic environments. &f the child 'ho Dsteps off on the 'ron" footD remains on an ill-starred path( su#se+uent steppin"-stone experiences may culminate in life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior. ;or life-course-persistent antisocial individuals( deviant #ehavior patterns later in life may thus reflect early individual differences that are perpetuated or exacer#ated #y interactions 'ith the social environment: first at home( and later at school. Cuay $)@:7% summariEed this as Dthis youth is li/ely to #e at odds 'ith everyone in the environment. and 29 most particularly 'ith those 'ho must interact 'ith him on a daily #asis to raise( educate( or other'ise control him. . . . This pattern is the most trou#lesome to society( seems least amena#le to chan"e( and has the most pessimistic pro"nosis for adult ad-ustmentD $p. )! )%. 3o'ever( inauspicious #e"innin"s do not complete the story. &n the 2e' Kealand study( for example( a com#ination of preschool measures of antisocial #ehavior and co"nitive a#ility 'as a#le to predict 7*F of the cases of conduct disorder at a"e )) #ut at the cost of a hi"h false-positive rate $.hite et al.( )@@*%. The next section explores the specific interactional processes that nourish and au"ment the life-course-persistent antisocial style #eyond childhood.
&aintenance and 'la%oration (ver the )ife Course Cumulative Continuity, Contemporary Continuity, and !arro*ing (ptions for Change
&n the previous section( the concept of evocative person-environment interaction 'as called on to descri#e ho' children,s difficult #ehaviors mi"ht affect encounters 'ith their parents. T'o additional types of interaction may help to explain ho' the life-course- persistent individual,s pro#lem #ehavior( once initiated( mi"ht promote its o'n continuity and pervasiveness. Reactive interaction occurs 'hen different youn"sters exposed to the same environment experience it( interpret it( and react to it in accordance 'ith their particular style. ;or example( in interpersonal situations 'here cues are am#i"uous( a""ressive children are li/ely to mista/enly attri#ute harmful intent to others and then act accordin"ly $Dod"e B ;rame( )@:!%. $roactive interaction occurs 'hen people select or create 30 environments that support their styles. ;or example( antisocial individuals appear to #e li/ely to affiliate selectively 'ith antisocial others( even 'hen selectin" a mate. 1ome evidence points to nonrandom matin" alon" personality traits related to antisocial #ehavior $Buss( )@:5%( and there are si"nificant spouse correlations on conviction for crimes $e.".( Ba/er( ac/( offitt( B edruc/( )@:@%. The three types of person-environment interactions can pro- duce t'o /inds of conse+uences in the life course: cumulative consequences and contemporary consequences $Caspi B Bern( )@@*%. Early individual differences may set in motion a do'nhill sno'#all of cumulative continuities. &n addition( individual differences may themselves persist from infancy to adulthood( continuin" to influence adolescent and adult #ehavior in a proximal contemporary fashion. Contemporary continuity arises if the life-course-persistent person continues to carry into adulthood the same underlyin" constellation of traits that "ot him into trou#le as a child( such as hi"h activity level( irrita#ility( poor self-control( and lo' co"nitive a#ility. The roles of cumulative and contemporary continuities in an- tisocial #ehavior have #een explored #y Caspi( Bern( and Elder $)@:@A Caspi et at.( )@:7%( usin" data from the lon"itudinal Ber/eley 4uidance 1tudy. They identified men 'ho had a history of temper tantrums durin" late childhood $'hen tantrums are not developmentally normative%. Then they traced the continuities and conse+uences of this personality style across the su#se+uent 6* years of the su#-ects, lives and into multiple diverse life domains: education( employment( and marria"e. A ma-or findin" 'as that hot-tempered #oys 'ho came from middle-class homes suffered a pro"ressive deterioration of socioeconomic status as they moved throu"h the life course. By a"e 5*( their occupational status 'as indistin"uisha#le from that of men #orn into the 'or/in" class. A ma-ority of them held -o#s of lo'er occupational status than those held #y their fathers at 31 a compara#le a"e. Did these men fail occupationally #ecause their earlier ill-temperedness started them do'n a particular path $cumulative conse+uences% or #ecause their current ill- temperedness handicapped them in the 'orld of 'or/ $contemporary conse+uences%J Cumulative conse+uences 'ere implied #y the effect of childhood temper on occupational status at midlife: Tantrums predicted lo'er educational attainment( and educational attainment( in turn( predicted lo'er occupational status. Contemporary conse+uences 'ere implied #y the stron" direct lin/ #et'een ill-temperedness and occupational sta#ility. en 'ith childhood tantrums continued to #e hot-tempered in adulthood( 'here it "ot them into trou#le in the 'orld of 'or/. They had more erratic 'or/ lives( chan"in" -o#s more fre+uently and experiencin" more unemployment #et'een a"es ): and 5*. &ll-temperedness also had a contemporary effect on marital sta#ility. Almost half $58F% of the men 'ith histories of childhood tantrums had divorced #y a"e 5* compared 'ith only !!F of other men. Else'here( & descri#e in detail some of the patterns of interaction #et'een persons and their social environments that may promote antisocial continuity across time and across life domains $Caspi B offitt( in press-#%. T'o sources of continuity deserve emphasis here #ecause they narro' the options for chan"e. These processes are $a% failin" to learn conventional prosocial alternatives to antisocial #ehavior and $#% #ecomin" ensnared in a deviant life-style #y crime,s conse+uences. These concepts have special implications for the +uestions of 'hy life-course-persistent individuals fail to desist from delin+uency as youn" adults and 'hy they are so impervious to intervention. A restricted %ehavioral repertoire0 This theory of life-- course-persistent antisocial #ehavior asserts that the causal se+uence #e"ins very early and the formative years are 32 dominated #y chains of cumulative and contemporary continuity. As a conse+uence( little opportunity is afforded for the life-course-persistent antisocial individual to learn a #ehavioral repertoire of prosocial alternatives. Thus( one overloo/ed and pernicious source of continuity in antisocial #ehavior is simply a lac/ of recourse to any other options. &n /eepin" 'ith this prediction( 0itaro( 4a"non( and Trem#lay $)@@*% have sho'n that a""ressive children 'hose #ehavioral repertoires consist almost solely of antisocial #ehaviors are less li/ely to chan"e over years than are a""ressive children 'hose repertoires comprise some proso- cial #ehaviors as 'ell. Life-course-persistent persons miss out on opportunities to ac+uire and practice prosocial alternatives at each sta"e of development. Children 'ith poor self-control and a""ressive #ehavior are often re-ected #y peers and adults $Coie( Beldin"( B >nder'ood( )@::A Dod"e( Coie( B Bra//e( )@:!A 0itaro et al.( )@@*%. &n turn( children 'ho have learned to expect re-ection are li/ely in later settin"s to 'ithdra' or stri/e out preemptively( precludin" opportunities to affiliate 'ith prosocial peers $Dod"e B 2e'man( )@:)A Dod"e B ;rame( )@:!A La;renier B 1roufe( )@:9A 2as#y( 3ayden( B DePaulo( )@:*%. 1uch children are ro##ed of chances to practice conventional social s/ills. Alternatively( consider this se+uence of narro'in" options: Behavior pro#lems at school and failure to attain #asic math and readin" s/ills place a limit on the variety of -o# s/ills that can #e ac+uired and there#y cut off options to pursue le"itimate employment as an alternative to the under"round economy $;arrin"ton( 4alla"her( orley( Led"er( B .est( )@:8A au"han( 4ray( B =utter( )@:9A offitt( )@@*a%. 1imply put( if social and academic s/ills are not mastered in childhood( it is very difficult to later recover lost opportunities. Becoming ensnared %y consequences of antisocial %ehavior. Personal characteristics such as poor self-control( impul- sivity( and ina#ility to delay "ratification increase the ris/ 33 that antisocial youn"sters 'ill ma/e irrevoca#le decisions that close the doors of opportunity. Teena"ed parenthood( addiction to dru"s or alcohol( school dropout( disa#lin" or disfi"urin" in-uries( patchy 'or/ histories( and time spent incarcerated are snares that diminish the pro#a#ilities of later success #y eliminatin" opportunities for #rea/in" the chain of cumulative continuity $Cairns B Cairns( )@@)A <( C. .ilson B 3errnstein( )@:9%. 1imilarly( la#els accrued early in life can foreclose later opportunitiesA an early arrest record or a D#adD reputation may rule out lucrative -o#s( hi"her education( or an advanta"eous marria"e $;arrin"ton( )@77A Ilein( )@:8A .est( )@:!%. &n short( the #ehavior of life-course-persistent antisocial persons is increasin"ly maintained and supported #y narro'in" options for conventional #ehavior. &nterventions 'ith life-course-persistent persons have met 'ith dismal results $Lipton( artinson( B .il/s( )@79A Palmer( )@:5A 1echrest( .hite( B Bro'n( )@7@%. This is not surprisin"( considerin" that most interventions are #e"un relatively late in the chain of cumulative continuity. The forces of continuity are formida#le foes $Caspi B offitt( in press-a%. After a protracted deficient learnin" history( and after options for chan"e have #een eliminated( efforts to suppress antisocial #ehavior 'ill not automatically #rin" prosocial #ehavior to the surface in its place. 2o'-classic research on learnin" sho's conclusively that efforts to extin"uish undesira#le #ehavior 'ill fail unless alternative #ehaviors are availa#le that 'ill attract reinforcement $AErin B 3olE( )@88%. y analysis of increasin"ly restricted #ehavioral options su""ests the hypothesis that opportunities for chan"e 'ill often #e actively transformed #y life-course-persistents into opportunities for continuity: =esidential treatment pro"rams provide a chance to learn from criminal peers( a ne' -o# furnishes the chance to steal( and ne' romance provides a partner for a#use. This analysis of life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior anticipates disappointin" outcomes 'hen such antisocial persons are 34 thrust into ne' situations that purportedly offer the chance Dto turn over a ne' leaf.D
#he Reason for $ersistence #raits, 'nvironments, and Developmental $rocesses
Accordin" to some accounts of #ehavioral continuity( an ever-present underlyin" trait "enerates antisocial outcomes at every point in the life span $e.".( 4ottfredson B 3irschi( )@@*%. By other accounts( antisocial #ehavior is sustained #y environmental #arriers to chan"e $e.".( Bandura( )@7@( pp. !)7-!!5%. &n this theory of life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior( neither traits nor environments account for continuity. True( the theory #e"ins 'ith a trait: variation #et'een indi- viduals in neuropsycholo"ical health. The trait is truly underlyin" in that it seldom comes to anyone,s attention unless an infant is challen"ed #y formal examinationsA it is manifested #ehaviorally as varia#ility in infant temperament( developmental milestones( and co"nitive a#ilities. 2ext( the theory #rin"s environments into play. Parents and other people respond to children,s difficult temperaments and developmental deficits. &n nurturin" environments( toddlers, pro#lems are often corrected. 3o'ever( in disadvanta"ed homes( schools( and nei"h#orhoods( the responses are more li/ely to exacer#ate than amend. >nder such detrimental circumstances( difficult #ehavior is "radually ela#orated into conduct pro#lems and a dearth of prosocial s/ills. Thus( over the years( an antisocial personality is slo'ly and insidiously constructed. Li/e'ise( deficits in lan"ua"e and reasonin" are incrementally ela#orated into academic failure and a dearth of -o# s/ills. 35 ?ver time( accumulatin" conse+uences of the youn"ster,s personality pro#lems and academic pro#lems prune a'ay the options for chan"e. This theory of life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior em- phasiEes the constant process of reciprocal interaction #et'een personal traits and environmental reactions to them. The ori"inal attri#ute is thus ela#orated on durin" development( to #ecome a syndrome that remains conceptually consistent( #ut that "ains ne' #ehavioral components $Caspi B Bern( )@@*%. Throu"h that process( relatively su#tle childhood variations in neuropsycholo"ical health can #e transformed into an antisocial style that pervades all domains of adolescent and adult #ehavior. &t is this infiltration of the antisocial disposition into the multiple domains of a life that diminishes the li/elihood of chan"e. .hen in the life course does the potential for chan"e d'indle to nilJ 3o' many person-environment interactions must accumulate #efore the life-course-persistent pattern #ecomes setJ & have ar"ued that a person-environment interaction process is needed to predict emer"in" antisocial #ehavior( #ut after some a"e 'ill the DpersonD main effect predict adult outcomes aloneJ An ans'er to these +uestions is critical for prevention efforts. The 'ell-documented resistance of antisocial personality disorder to treatments of all /inds seems to su""est that the life-course-persistent style is fixed sometime #efore a"e ): $1uedfeld B Landon( )@7:%. 1tudies of crime careers reveal that it is very unusual for males to first initiate crime after adolescence( su""estin" that if an adult is "oin" to #e antisocial( the pattern must #e esta#lished #y late adolescence $Elliott( 3uiEin"a( B enard( )@:@%.GiiiH At the same time( efforts to predict antisocial outcomes from childhood conduct pro#lems yield many errors $e.".( .hite et al.( )@@*%. These errors seem to su""est that antisocial styles #ecome set sometime after childhood. 36 >nfortunately( the extant lon"itudinal data#ase does not provide a sound #asis for conclusions. Typically( childhood #ehavior pro#lems are assessed at only one time point from a sin"le source( there#y lumpin" the many children 'ho are temporarily or situationally a""ressive 'ith the fe' children 'ho are on a persistent and pervasive tra-ectory. ?utcomes are also typically assessed at a sin"le point( often durin" late adolescence 'hen temporary delin+uents and future persisters are lumped to"ether. Accordin" to my theory( such predictive desi"ns should yield lar"e num#ers of false positives and false ne"atives. Analyses should as/( 'hen #et'een preschool and late adolescence can sta%le-pervasive antisocial #ehavior pro#lems #est predict antisocial outcomes amon" adultsJ
)ife-Course-$ersistent Antisocial Behavior as $sychopathology
The life-course-persistent antisocial syndrome( as descri#ed here( has many characteristics that( ta/en to"ether( su""est psychopatholo"y. ;or example( the syndrome is statistically unusualA much research conver"es to su""est that it is characteristic of a#out 9F of males $=o#ins( )@:9%. &ts rarity is thus consistent 'ith a simple statistical definition of a#normality. The theoretical syndrome is also characteriEed #y tenacious sta#ility across time and in diverse circumstances. This hi"h pro#a#ility response style is relied on even in situations 'here it is clearly inappropriate or disadvanta"eous $Caspi B offitt( in press-#%( especially if there is a very limited repertoire of alternative conventional #ehaviors $Trem#lay( )@@)%. Life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior is thus 37 maladaptive in the sense that it fails to chan"e in response to chan"in" circumstances. The syndrome of life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior descri#ed here has a #iolo"ical #asis in su#tle dysfunctions of the nervous system $offitt( )@@*#%. $& reiterate my assertion that #iolo"ical ori"ins are in no 'ay deterministic. =ather( individual variations in nervous system health provide ra' material for su#se+uent person-environment interactions.% The syndrome is associated 'ith other mental disorders. There is "ood evidence that such Dcomor#idityD is associated 'ith lon"-term continuity. An impressive #ody of research documents an overlap #et'een persistent forms of antisocial #ehavior and other conditions of childhood such as learnin" disa#ilities and hyperactivity $cf. offitt( )@@*a%. Three studies $Elliott( 3uiEin"a( B enard( )@:@A ;arrin"ton( Loe#er( B 0an Iammen( )@@*A offitt( )@@*a% have no' sho'n that the presence of multiple #ehavioral disorders predicts persistence of ille"al #ehavior over the course of years. This proliferation of mental disorders is common amon" life-course-persistent antisocial persons. ;or example( in the Epidemiolo"ical Catchment Area $ECA% study of mental disorders amon" )@(*** adults( over @*F of the cases 'ith antisocial personality disorder had at least one additional psychiatric dia"nosis. $Evidence of onset #efore adulthood is re+uired for the dia"nosis of antisocial personality disorder( confirmin" persistence in the ECA cases.% The comor#id conditions that disproportionately affected antisocial adults 'ere mania( schiEophrenia( dru" and alcohol a#use( depression( and anxiety disorders $=o#ins B =e"ier( )@@)%. ?f course( no one or t'o of these parameters is enou"h to 'arrant the classification of life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior as psychopatholo"y. 2onetheless( 'hen ta/en to"ether they form a more persuasive ar"ument that 38 persons 'hose antisocial #ehavior is sta#le and pervasive over the life course may constitute a cate"ory that is distinct from persons 'hose antisocial #ehavior is short term and situational.
Adolescence- Limited Antisocial Behavior
y account of the adolescence-limited antisocial type 'ill follo' this plan: &n the first section( Discontinuity #he &ost Common Course of Antisocial Behavior, & provide a definition and description of this u#i+uitous form of antisocial #ehavior. &n the second section( Beginnings &otivation, &imicry, and Reinforcement, & present three etiolo"ical hypotheses. Adolescence-limited antisocial #ehavior is motivated #y the "ap #et'een #iolo"ical maturity and social maturity( it is learned from antisocial models 'ho are easily mimic/ed( and it is sustained accordin" to the reinforcement principles of learnin" theory. &n the third section( & ans'er the +uestion( .hy doesn2t every teenager %ecome delinquent3 &n the fourth section( Desistence +rom Crime Adolescence-)imiteds Are Responsive to 4hifting Reinforcement Contingencies, & explain ho' temporary delin+uents come to #e exempted from the processes of continuity. &n the fifth section( Adolescence-)imited Delinquency and 4ecular Change, & locate adolescence-limited delin+uency in its recent historical context. &n the sixth section( & ma/e a case that the antisocial #ehavior of adolescence-limited delin+uents is #est re"arded as adaptive social #ehavior.
Discontinuity #he &ost Common Course of Antisocial Behavior 39
As implied #y the proffered la#el( discontinuity is the hall- mar/ of teena"ed delin+uents 'ho have no nota#le history of antisocial #ehavior in childhood and little future for such #ehavior in adulthood. 3o'ever( the #rief tenure of their delin+uency should not o#scure their prevalence in the population or the "ravity of their crimes. &n contrast 'ith the rare life-course-persistent type( adolescence-limited delin+uency is u#i+uitous. 1everal studies have sho'n that a#out one third of males are arrested durin" their lifetime for a serious criminal offense( 'hereas fully four fifths of males have police contact for some minor infrin"ement $;arrin"ton( ?hlin( B .ilson( )@:8%. ost of these police contacts are made durin" the adolescent year. &ndeed( numerous ri"orous self-report studies have no' documented that it is statistically a#errant to refrain from crime dur- 40 in" adolescence $Elliott et al.( )@:6A 3irschi( )@8@A offitt B 1ilva( )@::c%. Compared 'ith the life-course-persistent type( adolescence-limited delin+uents sho' relatively little continuity in their antisocial #ehavior. Across a"e( chan"e in delin+uent involvement is often a#rupt( especially durin" the periods of onset and desistence. ;or example( in my aforementioned lon"itudinal study of a representative sample of #oys( )!F of the youn"sters 'ere classified as ne' delin+uents at a"e )6A they had no prior history of antisocial #ehavior from a"e 9 to a"e )). Bet'een a"e )) and a"e )6( they chan"ed from #elo' the sample avera"e to ).9 standard deviations a#ove avera"e on self-reported delin+uency $offitt( )@@*a%. By a"e )9( another !*F of this sample of #oys had -oined the ne'comers to delin+uency despite havin" no prior history of antisocial #ehavior $offitt( )@@)%. Barely into mid-adolescence( the prevalence rate of mar/edly antisocial #oys had s'ollen from 9F at a"e )) to 6!F at a"e )9. .hen intervie'ed at a"e ):( only 7F of the #oys denied all delin+uent activities. By their mid-!*s( at least three fourths of these ne' offenders are expected to cease all offendin" $;arrin"ton( )@:8%. Adolescence-limited delin+uents may also have sporadic( crime-free periods in the midst of their #rief crime Dcareers.D Also( in contrast 'ith the life-course-persistent type( they lac/ consistency in their antisocial #ehavior across situations. ;or example( they may shoplift in stores and use dru"s 'ith friends #ut continue to o#ey the rules at school. Because of the chimeric nature of their delin+uency( different reporters $such as self( parent( and teacher% are less li/ely to a"ree a#out their #ehavior pro#lems 'hen as/ed to complete ratin" scales or clinical intervie's $Loe#er( 4reen( Lahey( B 1touthamer-Loe#er( )@@*A Loe#er B 1chmalin"( )@:9%. 41 These o#servations a#out temporal insta#ility and cross-sit- uational inconsistency are more than merely descriptive. They have implications for a theory of the etiolo"y of adolescence-limited delin+uency. &ndeed( the flexi#ility of most delin+uents, #ehavior su""ests that their en"a"ement in deviant life-styles may #e under the control of reinforcement and punishment contin"encies. >nli/e their life-course-persistent peers( 'hose #ehavior 'as descri#ed as inflexi#le and refractory to chan"in" circum- stances( adolescence-limited delin+uents are li/ely to en"a"e in antisocial #ehavior in situations 'here such responses seem profita#le to them( #ut they are also a#le to a#andon antisocial #ehavior 'hen prosocial styles are more re'ardin". They maintain control over their antisocial responses and use antisocial #ehavior only in situations 'here it may serve an instrumental function. Thus( principles of learnin" theory 'ill #e important for this theory of the cause of adolescence-limited delin+uency. A theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency must account for several empirical o#servations: modal onset in early adolescence( recovery #y youn" adulthood( 'idespread prevalence( and lac/ of continuity. .hy do youn"sters 'ith no history of #ehavior pro#lems in childhood suddenly #ecome antisocial in adolescenceJ .hy do they develop antisocial pro#lems rather than other difficultiesJ .hy is delin+uency so common amon" teensJ 3o' are they a#le to spontaneously recover from an antisocial life-style 'ithin a fe' short yearsJ <ust as the childhood onset of life-course-persistent persons compelled me to loo/ for causal factors early in their lives( the coincidence of pu#erty 'ith the rise in the prevalence of delin+uent #ehavior compels me to loo/ for clues in adolescent development. Critical features of this developmental period are varia#ility in #iolo"ical a"e( the increasin" importance of peer relationships( and the #uddin" 42 of teena"ers, self-conscious values( attitudes( and aspirations. These developmental tas/s form the #uildin" #loc/s for a theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency.
Beginnings &otivation, &imicry, and Reinforcement
.hy do adolescence-limited delin+uents #e"in delin+uencyJ The ans'er advanced here is that their delin+uency is Dsocial mimicryD of the antisocial style of life-course-persistent youths. The concept of social mimicry is #orro'ed from etholo"y. 1ocial mimicry occurs 'hen t'o animal species share a sin"le niche and one of the species has cornered the mar/et on a resource that is needed to promote fitness $oynihan( )@8:%. &n such circumstances( the DmimicD species adopts the social #ehavior of the more successful species to o#tain access to the valua#le resource. ;or example( co'#ird chic/s( 'ho are left #y their mothers to #e reared in the nests of unsuspectin" parent #irds( learn to #ehave li/e the parent #irds, o'n true chic/s and thus stimulate the parents to drop food their 'ay. 1ocial mimicry may also allo' some species to safely pass amon" a more successful "roup and thus share access to desired resources. ;or example( some mon/ey species have learned to mimic #ird calls. ?ne such species of mon/eys( rufous-naped tamarins( is a#le to share the deli"hts of ripe fruit after a tree has #een located #y tyrant flycatchers( 'hose superior avian capacities in fli"ht and distance vision #etter e+uip them to discover #earin" trees. 1imilarly( Ee#ras are sensitive to the social si"nals of impalas and "aEelles and thus #enefit from the latter species, superior sensitivity to approachin" predators $E. *. .ilson( )@79%. &f social mimicry is to explain 'hy adolescence-limited de- lin+uents #e"in to mimic the antisocial #ehavior of their 43 life-course-persistent peers( then( lo"ically( delin+uency must #e a social #ehavior that allo's access to some desira#le resource. & su""est that the resource is mature status( 'ith its conse+uent po'er and privile"e. Before moderniEation( #iolo"ical maturity came at a later a"e( social adult status arrived at an earlier a"e( and rites of passa"e more clearly delineated the point at 'hich youths assumed ne' roles and responsi#ilities. &n the past century( improved nutrition and health care have decreased the a"e of #iolo"ical maturity at the rate of three tenths of a year per decade $Tanner( )@7:A .ysha/ B ;risch( )@:!%. 1imultaneously( moderniEation of 'or/ has delayed the a"e of la#or-force participation to ever later points in development $Empey( )@7:A 3oran B 3ar"is( )@@)A Panel on Nouth of the President,s 1cience Advisory Committee( )@75%. Thus( secular chan"es in health and 'or/ have len"thened the duration of adolescence. The ensuin" "ap leaves modern teena"ers in a 9- to )*-year role vacuum $Eri/son( )@8*%. They are #iolo"ically capa#le and compelled to #e sexual #ein"s( yet they are as/ed to delay most of the positive aspects of adult life $see Buchanan( Eccles( B Bec/er( )@@!( for a revie' of studies of the compellin" influence of pu#ertal hormones of teens, #ehavior and personality%. &n most American states( teens are not allo'ed to 'or/ or "et a driver,s license #efore a"e )8( marry or vote #efore a"e ):( or #uy alcohol #efore a"e !)( and they are admonished to delay havin" children and esta#lishin" their o'n private d'ellin"s until their education is completed at a"e !!( sometimes more than )* years after they attain sexual maturity. They remain financially and socially dependent on their families of ori"in and are allo'ed fe' decisions of any real import. Net they 'ant desperately to esta#lish intimate #onds 'ith the opposite sex( to accrue material #elon"in"s( to ma/e their o'n decisions( and to #e re"arded as conse+uential #y adults $Csi/sEentmihalyi B Larson( )@:5%. Contemporary adolescents are thus trapped in a maturity 44 gap, chronolo"ical hosta"es of a time 'arp #et'een #iolo"ical a"e and social a"e. This emer"ent phenomenolo"y #e"ins to color the 'orld for most teens in the first years of adolescence. 1tein#er" has sho'n that( #et'een a"es )* and )9( a dramatic shift in youn"sters, self-perceptions of autonomy and self-reliance ta/es place. oreover( the timin" of the shift for individuals is connected 'ith their pu#ertal maturation $1tein#er"( )@:7A 1tein#er" B 1ilver#er"( )@:8A >dry( )@::%. At the time of #iolo"ical maturity( salient pu#ertal chan"es ma/e the remoteness of ascri#ed social maturity painfully apparent to teens. This ne' a'areness coincides 'ith their promotion into a hi"h school society that is numerically dominated #y older youth. Thus( -ust as teens #e"in to feel the discomfort of the maturity "ap( they enter a social reference "roup that has endured the "ap for 6 to 5 years and has already perfected some delin+uent 'ays of copin" 'ith it. &ndeed( several researchers have noted that this life-course transition into hi"h school society may place teens at ris/ for anti-social #ehavior. &n particular( exposure to peer models( 'hen coupled 'ith pu#erty( is an important determinant of adolescence-onset cases of delin+uency $Caspi( Lynam( offitt( B 1ilva( )@@6A a"nusson( )@::A 1immons B Blyth( )@:7%. Life-course-persistent youn"sters are the van"uard of this transition. 3ealthy adolescents are capa#le of noticin" that the fe' life-course-persistent youths in their midst do not seem to suffer much from the maturity "ap. $At a prevalence rate of a#out 9F( one or t'o such experienced delin+uents in every classroom mi"ht #e expected.% Already adept at deviance( life-course-persistent youths are a#le to o#tain possessions #y theft or vice that are other'ise inaccessi#le to teens 'ho have no independent incomes $e.".( cars( clothes( dru"s( or entry into adults-only leisure settin"s%. Life-course-persistent #oys are more sexually experienced and have already initiated relationships 'ith the 45 opposite sex.GivH Life-course-persistent #oys appear relatively free of their families of ori"in: they seem to "o their o'n 'ay( ma/in" their o'n rules. As evidence that they ma/e their o'n decisions( they ta/e ris/s and do dan"erous thin"s that parents could not possi#ly endorse. As evidence that they have social conse+uence in the adult 'orld( they have personal attorneys( social 'or/ers( and pro#ation officersA they operate small #usinesses in the under"round economyA and they have fathered children $.eiher( 3uiEin"a( LiEotte( B 0an Iammen( )@@)%. 0ie'ed from 'ithin contemporary adolescent culture( the anti-social precocity of life-course-persistent youths #ecomes a coveted social asset $cf. ;inne"an( )@@*a( )@@*#A <essor B <essor( )@77A 1il#ereisen B 2oac/. )@::%. Li/e the aforementioned #ird calls that 'ere mimic/ed #y hun"ry tamarin mon/eys( antisocial #ehavior #ecomes a valua#le techni+ue that is demonstrated #y life-course-persistents and imitated carefully #y adolescence-limiteds. The effect of peer delin+uency on the onset of delin+uency is amon" the most ro#ust facts in criminolo"y research $Elliott B enard( in pressA <essor B <essor( )@77A =eiss( )@:8A 1arnec/i( )@:8%. 3o'ever( is there evidence consistent 'ith a social mimicry interpretationJ & descri#e the evidence in the next section. 4ocial mimicry and the relationships %et*een life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited delinquents0 ?ne hypothesiEed #y-product of the maturity "ap is a shift durin" early adolescence #y persistent antisocial youth from peripheral to more influential positions in the peer social structure. This shift should occur as aspects of the antisocial style #ecome more interestin" to other teens. &n terms of its epidemiolo"y( delin+uent participation shifts from #ein" primarily an individual psychopatholo"y in childhood to a normative "roup social #ehavior durin" adolescence and then #ac/ to psychopatholo"y in adulthood. Consider that the #ehavior pro#lems of the fe' pioneerin" antisocial children in an a"e cohort must develop on an individual #asisA such early childhood pioneers lac/ the influence of 46 delin+uent peers $exceptin" family mem#ers%. 3o'ever( near adolescence( a fe' #oys -oin the life-course-persistent ones( then a fe' more( until a critical mass is reached 'hen almost all adolescents are involved in some delin+uency 'ith a"e peers. Elliott and enard $in press% have analyEed chan"e in peer "roup mem#ership from a"e )) to a"e !5 in a national pro#a#ility sample. Their data sho' a "radual population drift from mem#ership in nondelin+uent peer "roups to mem#ership in delin+uent peer "roups up to a"e )7: the trend reverses thereafter. ;or example( 7:F of ))-year-olds reported no or minimal delin+uency amon" their friends. &n contrast( 88F of )7-year-olds reported su#stantial delin+uency on the part of the friends in their "roup. The 'ord friends in the previous sentence seems to imply a personal relationship #et'een life-course-persistents and adolescence-limiteds that is implausi#le. uch evidence su""ests that( #efore adolescence( life-course-persistent antisocial children are i"nored and re-ected #y other children #ecause of their unpredicta#le( a""ressive #ehavior $Coie et al.( )@::A Dod"e et al.( )@:!%. After adolescence has passed( life-course-persistent adults are often descri#ed as lac/in" the capacity for loyalty or friendship $Clec/ley( )@78A =o#ins( )@:9%. At first( these o#servations may seem contrary to my assertion that life-course-persistents assume social influence over youths 'ho admire and emulate their style durin" adolescence. 3o'ever( it is important to recall that social mimicry re+uired no exchan"e of affection #et'een the successful #irds and their mon/ey mimics. &n this theory( adolescents 'ho 'ish to prove their maturity need only notice that the style of life-course-persistents resem#les adulthood more than it resem#les childhood. Then they need only o#serve antisocial #ehavior closely enou"h and lon" enou"h to imitate it successfully. .hat is contended is that adolescence-limited youths should re"ard life-course-persistent youths as models( and life-course-persistent teens should re"ard themselves as 47 ma"nets for other teens. 2either perception need involve reciprocal li/in" #et'een individuals. A modelin" role 'ould imply that measures of exposure to delin+uent peers $e.".( /no'led"e of their delin+uent #ehavior or time spent in proximity to them% should #e #etter predictors of self-delin+uency than measures of relationship +uality $e.".( shared attitudes or attachment to delin+uent peers%. ;e' studies have parsed peer-delin+uency effects into separate components( #ut t'o findin"s consistent 'ith this prediction have #een reported from the 2ational Nouth 1urvey( a representative sample of more than )(9** teens. A"ne' $)@@)% examined relationship characteristics in interaction 'ith levels of peer delin+uency. 3e ar"ued that attachment to peers should encoura"e deviance if peers are delin+uent #ut discoura"e it if they are not. A"ne',s results sho'ed that such interaction terms 'ere "ood predictors. 3o'ever( the results also sho'ed that time spent 'ith delin+uent peers 'as a stron"er uni+ue predictor of self-delin+uency than the interaction #et'een peer attachment and peer crime. .arr and 1tafford $)@@)% found that the /no'led"e of friends, delin+uent #ehavior 'as !.9 to 9 times more important for self-delin+uency than friends, attitudes a#out delin+uency. $This pattern has #een replicated in another sample #y 2a"in B Paternoster( )@@).% oreover( the effect of peer delin+uency 'as directA it 'as not mediated #y influencin" the respondents, attitudes to #e more li/e those of deviant peers. These findin"s are not consistent 'ith the notion that teens ta/e up delin+uency after pro-delin+uency attitudes are transferred in the context of intimate social relations. =ather( .arr and 1tafford concluded that the data on peer effects are #est interpreted in terms of imitation or vicarious reinforcement. A ma"net role 'ould imply that children 'ho 'ere re-ected and i"nored #y others should experience ne'found Dpopular- ityD as teens( relative to their former re-ected status. That is( 48 life-course-persistent youth should encounter more contacts 'ith peers durin" adolescence 'hen other adolescents dra' near so as to imitate their life-style. 1ome research is consistent 'ith this interpretation. ;or example( in a study of 59* students in middle school( a""ressive youths 'ho 'ere re-ected #y their peers reported that they did not feel lonely( 'hereas su#missive re-ected youths did feel lonely $Par/hurst B Asher( )@@!%. 1imilarly( a""ressive seventh-"raders in the Carolina Lon"itudinal 1tudy 'ere rated as popular as often as nona""ressive youths #y #oth teachers and themselves and 'ere as li/ely as other youths to #e nuclear mem#ers of peer "roups $Cairns( Cairns( 2ec/erman( 4est( B 4ariepy( )@::%. &n their revie' of peer-relationship studies( Coie( Dod"e( and Iupersmidt $)@@*% noted that the relationship #et'een overt a""ression and peer re-ection is 'ea/er or a#sent in adolescent samples compared 'ith child samples. ;indin"s such as these su""est that a""ressive teens experience re"ular contacts 'ith peers( ho'ever short-lived. 1imilarly( in the ?re"on Nouth 1tudy( re-ection #y peers at a"e )* 'as pro"nostic of "reater involvement 'ith delin+uent peers ! years later $Dishion( Patterson( 1toolmiller( B 1/inner( )@@)%. Althou"h the ?re"on researchers interpreted their results as su""estin" that a""ressive children see/ delin+uent friends( their data are e+ually consistent 'ith my interpretation that a""ressive youths #e"in to serve as a ma"net for novice delin+uents durin" early adolescence. Definitive sociometric research must follo' up a""ressive-re-ected children to test 'hether they develop net'or/s in adolescence that include late-onset delin+uents of the adolescence-limited type. =esearchers from the Carolina Lon"itudinal 1tudy have care- fully documented that #oys 'ith an a""ressive history do participate in peer net'or/s in adolescence #ut that the net'or/s are not very sta#le $Cairns et al.( )@::%. Consistent 'ith a social mimicry hypothesis( delin+uent "roups have fre+uent mem#ership turnover. &n addition( the interchan"es #et'een net'or/ mem#ers are characteriEed 49 #y much reciprocal antisocial #ehavior $Cairns et al.( )@::%. =eiss and ;arrin"ton $)@@)% have sho'n that the most experienced hi"h-rate youn" offenders tend to recruit different co-offenders for each offense. Life-course-persistents serve as core mem#ers of revolvin" net'or/s( #y virtue of #ein" role models or trainers for ne' recruits $=eiss( )@:8%. They exploit peers as dru" customers( as fences( as loo/outs( or as sexual partners. 1uch interactions amon" life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited delin+uents may represent a sym#iosis of mutual exploitation. Alternatively( life-course-persistent offenders need not even #e a'are of all of the adolescence-limited youn"sters 'ho imitate their style. >nli/e adolescence-limited offenders( 'ho appear to need peer support for crime( life-course-persistent offenders are 'illin" to offend alone $Ini"ht B .est( )@79%. The point is that the phenomena of Ddelin+uent peer net'or/sD and Dco-offendin"D durin" the adolescent period do not necessarily connote supportive friendships that are #ased on intimacy( trust( and loyalty( as is sometimes assumed. 1ocial mimicry of delin+uency can ta/e place if experienced offenders actively educate ne' recruits. 3o'ever( it can also ta/e place if motivated learners merely o#serve antisocial models from afar. Reinforcement of de1inquency %y its /negative/ consequences0 ;or teens 'ho #ecome adolescence-limited delin+uents( antisocial #ehavior is an effective means of /nifin"-off childhood apron strin"s and of provin" that they can act independently to con+uer ne' challen"es $Eri/son( )@8*%. 3ypothetical reinforcers for delin+uency include dama"in" the +uality of intimacy and communication 'ith parents( provo/in" responses from adults in positions of authority( findin" 'ays to loo/ older $such as #y smo/in" ci"arettes( #ein" tattooed( playin" the #i" spender 'ith ill-"otten "ains%( and temptin" fate $ris/in" pre"nancy( drivin" 'hile intoxicated( or shopliftin" under the noses of 50 cler/s%. 2one of these putative reinforcers may seem very pleasura#le to the middle-a"ed academic( #ut each of the aforementioned conse+uences is a precious resource to the teena"er and can serve to reinforce delin+uency. Bloch and 2iederhoffer $)@9:% have offered an anthropolo"ical perspective: D&t is almost as if the contemporary youn" person( in the a#sence of pu#erty rituals and ordeals( is moved to exclaim: &f you don,t care to test us( then 'e 'ill test ourselvesOD $p. !:%. & su""est that every curfe' violated( car stolen( dru" ta/en( and #a#y conceived is a statement of personal independence and thus a reinforcer for delin+uent involvement. Ethno"raphic intervie's 'ith delin+uents reveal that provin" maturity and autonomy are stron" personal motives for offendin" $e.".( 4oldstein( )@@*%. 1uch hypothetical reinforcin" properties have not #een systematically tested for most types of delin+uent acts. 3o'ever( epidemiolo"ical studies have confirmed that adolescent initiation of to#acco( alcohol( and dru" a#use are reinforced #ecause they sym#oliEe independence and maturity to youth $D. Iandel( )@:*A ausner B Platt( )@7)%. &n summary( in this narrative account of the etiolo"y of ado- lescent-onset delin+uency & have emphasiEed three conditions: motivation( mimicry( and reinforcement. & have su""ested that a secular chan"e in the duration of adolescence has "enerated an a"e-dependent motivational state. &n addition( life-course-persistent antisocial models must #e availa#le so that their delin+uent #ehaviors can #e imitated. ;inally( adolescents, fled"lin" attempts to mimic antisocial styles 'ill continue if they are socially reinforced #y the Dne"ative conse+uencesD of crime.
-hy Doesn2t 'very #eenager Become Delinquent3 51
The proffered theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency re- "ards this sort of delin+uency as an adaptive response to contextual circumstances. As a conse+uence( the theory seems to predict that every teen 'ill en"a"e in delin+uency. Data from epidemiolo"ical studies usin" the self-report method su""est that almost all adolescents do commit some ille"al acts $Elliott et al.( )@:6%. &n addition( even studies usin" official records of arrest #y police find surprisin"ly hi"h prevalence rates $for a revie' see ;arrin"ton( ?hlin( B .ilson( )@:8%. 2evertheless( some youths commit less delin+uency than others( and a small minority a#stains completely. >nfortunately( almost no research sheds li"ht on the characteristics of teens 'ho a#stain from antisocial #ehavior alto"ether. 1peculations are thus ill-informed #y empirical o#servations. 3o'ever( some predictions may #e derived from the present theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency. The predictions center on t'o theoretical prere+uisites for adolescent-onset delin+uency: the motivatin" maturity "ap and antisocial role models. 1ome youths may s/ip the maturity "ap #ecause of late pu#erty or early initiation into adult roles. ?thers may find fe' opportunities for mimic/in" life-course-persistent delin+uent models. 1ome youths 'ho refrain from antisocial #ehavior may( for some reason( not sense the maturity "ap and therefore lac/ the hypothesiEed motivation for experimentin" 'ith crime. Perhaps such teens experience very late pu#erty so that the "ap #et'een #iolo"ical and social adulthood is not si"naled to them early in adolescence. ;or example( Caspi and offitt $)@@)% have sho'n that "irls 'ho do not menstruate #y a"e )9 tend not to #ecome involved in delin+uencyA in fact they evidence fe'er than normal #ehavior pro#lems as teens. Perhaps other a#stainers #elon" to cultural or reli"ious su#"roups in 'hich adolescents are "iven le"itimate access to adult privile"es and accounta#ility. &n his vivid 52 ethno"raphic account of Dold headsD and teena"ed #oys in a poor #lac/ nei"h#orhood( Anderson $)@@*% descri#ed ho' mature community leaders dre' certain #oys into their o'n 'or/ and social lives( deli#erately and pu#licly initiatin" the #oys into manhood $and preventin" delin+uent involvement%. 1ome nondelin+uent teens may lac/ structural opportunities for modelin" antisocial peers. Adolescent crime rates are "enerally lo'er in rural areas than in inner-city areas $1/o"an( )@7@( )@@*%. Teens in ur#an areas are surrounded #y a "reater density of a"e peers $and have readier unsupervised access to them throu"h pu#lic transportation and meetin" venues such as par/s and shoppin" malls% than are teens in relatively isolated rural areas. ;or instance( 1ampson and 4roves $)@:@% determined that the stron"est community-level correlate of local rates of ro##ery and violence 'as the presence of Dunsupervised "roups of teena"ers han"in" out and ma/in" a nuisanceD $p. 7:@%. &n that study( more traditional community correlates of crime( such as socioeconomic status( residential mo#ility( and ethnicity( 'ere mediated #y the teena"ed social scene. 1chool structures may also constrain or facilitate access to life-course-persistent models. Caspi et al. $)@@6% found that early pu#erty 'as associated 'ith delin+uency in "irls #ut only if they had access to #oys throu"h attendin" coed hi"h schools. 4irls 'ho 'ere enrolled in "irls, schools did not en"a"e in delin+uency. &n that study( the difference in delin+uent involvement #et'een coed and sin"le-sex school settin"s could not #e explained #y any personal or family characteristics that may have influenced ho' the "irls came to #e enrolled in their schoolsA access to delin+uent role models 'as clearly the #est explanation for the "irls, #ehavior pro#lems. Nouths may also #e excluded from opportunities to mimic antisocial peers #ecause of some personal characteristics that ma/e them unattractive to other teens or that leave 53 them reluctant to see/ entry to ne'ly popular delin+uent "roups. 1hedler and Bloc/ $)@@*% found such an effect on the use of ille"al dru"s. They compared the personality styles of three adolescent "roups: teens 'ho a#stained from tryin" any dru"( teens 'ho experimented 'ith dru"s( and teens 'ho 'ere fre+uent heavy dru" users. Adolescents 'ho experimented 'ere the #est ad-usted teens in the sample. As expected( fre+uent users 'ere trou#led teens 'ho 'ere alienated and antisocial. 3o'ever( the a#stainers 'ere also pro#lem teens: They 'ere Drelatively tense( overcontrolled( emotionally constricted(. . . sorne'hat socially isolated and lac/in" in interpersonal s/illsD $p. 8):%. This personality style 'as not a conse+uence of failin" to try dru"s. =ather( it 'as an endurin" personality confi"uration. At a"e 7( these a#stainers had #een prospectively descri#ed #y raters as Dovercontrolled( timid( fearful and morose . . . ( they 'ere not 'arm and responsive( not curious and open to ne' experience( not active( not vital( and not cheerfulD $pp. 8)@-8!*%. 1imilarly( ;arrin"ton and .est $)@@*% reported that #oys from crimino"enic circumstances 'ho did not #ecome delin+uent seemed nervous and 'ithdra'n and had fe' or no friends. These provocative findin"s remind us that deviance is defined in relationship to its normative context. Durin" adolescence( 'hen delin+uent #ehavior #ecomes the norm( nondelin+uents 'arrant our scientific scrutiny. &n summary( this theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency su""ests that adolescents 'ho commit no antisocial #ehavior at all have either $a% delayed pu#erty( $#% access to roles that are respected #y adults( $c% environments that limit opportunities for learnin" a#out delin+uency( $d% personal characteristics that exclude them from antisocial peer net'or/s( or $e% all four. =esearch is needed to determine 'hether or not 54 a#stainin" from delin+uency is necessarily a si"n of "ood adolescent ad-ustment.
Desistence +rom Crime Adolescence-)imiteds A re Responsive to 4hifting Reinforcement Contingencies
By definition( adolescence-limited delin+uents "enerally do not maintain their delin+uent #ehavior into adulthood. The account of life-course-persistent persons & made earlier in this article re+uired an analysis of maintenance factors. &n contrast( this account of adolescence-limited delin+uents demands an analysis of desistence: .hy do adolescence-limited delin+uents desist from delin+uencyJ This theory,s ans'er: 3ealthy youths respond adaptively to chan"in" contin"encies. &f motivational and learnin" mechanisms initiate and maintain their delin+uency( then( li/e'ise( chan"in" contin"encies can extin"uish it. Preoccupied 'ith explainin" the ori"ins of crime( most theo- ries of delin+uency have ne"lected to address the massive shift in the prevalence of criminal involvement #et'een adolescence and adulthood. 4ove $)@:9% revie'ed six of the most influential theories of deviance: la#elin" theory( conflict theory( differential association theory( control theory( anomie theory( and functional theory. 3e concluded( DAll of these theoretical perspectives either explicitly or implicitly su""est that deviant #ehavior is an amplifyin" process that leads to further and more serious devianceD $p. )):%. A "eneral application of an amplifyin" process to all delin+uency is inconsistent 'ith the empirical o#servation that desistence from crime is the normative pattern. -aning motivation and shifting contingencies0 &n contrast 'ith amplifyin" theories( the present maturity-"ap theory does anticipate desistence. .ith the inevita#le pro"ression 55 of chronolo"ical a"e( more le"itimate and tan"i#le adult roles #ecome availa#le to teens. Adolescence-limited delin+uents "radually experience a loss of motivation for delin+uency as they exit the maturity "ap. oreover( 'hen a"in" delin+uents attain some of the privile"es they coveted as teens( the conse+uences of ille"al #ehavior shift from re'ardin" to punishin"( in their perception0 An adult arrest record 'ill limit their -o# opportunities( dru" a#use /eeps them from "ettin" to 'or/ on time( drun/ drivin" is costly( and #ar fi"hts lead to accusations of unfit parenthood. Adolescence-limited delin+uents have somethin" to lose #y persistin" in their antisocial #ehavior #eyond the teen years. There is some evidence that many youn" adult offenders 'ei"h the relative re'ards from ille"al and conventional activities 'hen they contemplate future offendin". &n a study of three samples( the effect of a"e on criminal participation 'as mediated #y youn" men,s expectations a#out 'hether ille"al earnin"s 'ould exceed earnin"s from a strai"ht -o# $Piliavin( Thornton( 4artner( B atsueda( )@:8%. &mportant for this theory( research sho's that Dcommitment costsD are amon" the factors 'ei"hed #y youn" adults 'hen they decide to discontinue offendin". &n the criminolo"ical su#field of perceptual deterrence research( commitment costs are defined as a person,s -ud"ment that past accomplishments 'ill #e -eopardiEed or that future "oals 'ill #e foreclosed $.illiams B 3a'/ins( )@:8%. Criminal #ehavior incurs commitment costs if it ris/s informal sanctions $disapproval #y family( community. or employer% as 'ell as formal sanctions $arrest or conviction penalty%. 4iven that very fe' delin+uent acts culminate in formal sanctions( perceptual deterrence theories consider informal sanctions as /eys to deterrence. Paternoster and collea"ues have tested the proposed effects of commitment costs and informal sanctions in a follo'-up study of 6** youn" adults. They found that criminal offendin" ) year later 'as #est predicted #y prospective indexes of commitment costs (r 5 -067% and informal sanctions (r L -.5*%. Those varia#les 56 outdid "ender( perceived ris/ of arrest( "rade point avera"e( and peer attachment $Paternoster( 1altEman( .aldo( B Chiricos( )@:6%.GvH (ptions for change0 Consistent 'ith this motivational anal- ysis( the antisocial #ehavior of many delin+uent teens has #een found to decline after they leave hi"h school $Elliott B 0oss( )@75%( -oin the army $Eider. )@:8A attic/( )@8*%( marry a prosocial spouse $1ampson B Lau#( )@@*%( move a'ay from the old nei"h#orhood $.est( )@:!%( or "et a full-time -o# $1ampson B Lau#( )@@*%. As these citations sho'( lin/s #et'een the assumption of adult roles and criminal desistence have #een o#served #efore. The issue left unaddressed #y theory is 'hy are some delin+uents a#le to desist 'hen others are notJ .hat ena#les adolescence-limited delin+uents to ma/e these $often a#rupt% transitions a'ay from crimeJ .hy do adolescence-limited delin+uents come to realiEe that they have somethin" to lose( 'hereas life-course-persistent delin+uents remain undeterredJ 3ere( t'o positions are advanced: >nli/e their life-course-persistent counterparts( adolescence-limited delin+uents are relatively exempt from the forces of $a% cumulative and $#% contemporary continuity. ;irst( 'ithout a lifelon" history of antisocial #ehavior( the forces of cumulative continuity have had fe'er years in 'hich to "ather the momentum of a do'nhill sno'#all. Before ta/in" up delin+uency( adolescence-limited offenders had ample years to develop an accomplished repertoire of prosocial #ehaviors and #asic academic s/ills. These social s/ills and academic achievements ma/e them eli"i#le for postsecondary education( "ood marria"es( and desira#le -o#s. The availa#ility of alternatives to crime may explain 'hy some adolescence-limited delin+uents desist later than others. $As sho'n in ;i"ure )( the desistence portion of the 57 a"e-crime curve slopes more "radually than the a#rupt criminal initiation portion.% Althou"h the forces of cumulative continuity #uild up less momentum over the course of their relatively short crime careers( many adolescence-limited youths 'ill fall prey to many of the same snares that maintain continuity amon" life-course-persistent persons. Those 'hose teen forays into delin+uency inadvertently attracted dama"in" conse+uences may have more difficulty desistin". A dru" ha#it( an incarceration( interrupted education( or a teen pre"nancy are snares that re+uire extra effort and time from 'hich to escape. Thus( this theory predicts that varia#ility in a"e at desistence from crime should #e accounted for #y the cumulative num#er and type of ensnarin" life events that entan"le persons in a deviant life-style. 1econd( in star/ contrast 'ith the earlier account of life-- course-persistent offenders( personality disorder and co"nitive deficits play no part in the delin+uency of adolescence-limited offenders. As a result( they are exempt from the sources of contemporary continuity that pla"ue their life-course-persistent counterparts. &n "eneral( these youn" adults have ade+uate social s/ills( they have a record of avera"e or #etter academic achievement( their mental health is sturdy( they still possess the capacity to for"e close attachment relationships( and they retain the "ood intelli"ence they had 'hen they entered adolescence. ?ne study of "irls 'ho "re' up in institutional care has illustrated that individual differences influence 'hich adolescents are a#le to attain prosocial outcomes in youn" adulthood $Cuinton B =utter( )@::%. &n that study( some "irls reared in institutions 'ere a#le to escape adversity for advanta"e throu"h marria"e to a supportive hus#and( #ut a constellation of individual psycholo"ical attri#utes determined 'hich "irls 'ere a#le to marry 'ell. At the crossroads of youn" adulthood( adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent delin+uents "o different 'ays. This 58 happens #ecause the developmental histories and personal traits of adolescence-limiteds allo' them the option of explorin" ne' life path'ays. The histories and traits of life-course-persistents have foreclosed their options( entrenchin" them in the antisocial path. To test this hypothesis. research must examine conditional effects of individual histories on opportunities for desistence from crime.
Adolescence-)imited Delinquency and 4ecular Change
& have su""ested that adolescence-limited delin+uency is a #yproduct of moderniEation( an adolescent adaptation to a maturity "ap en"endered #y the opposin" social forces of improved health and a smaller( #etter educated 'or/ force. &f this theory is correct( then secular chan"es should have rendered the a"e-crime curve relatively steeper 'ith increasin" moderniEation. The theory predicts that( in contemporary preindustrial nations and in earlier historical periods( the a"e-crime curve should have a flatter /urtosisA in other 'ords( it 'ill lac/ the characteristic sharp pea/ #et'een the a"es of )9-):. Empirical data support this prediction. 4reen#er" $)@:9% compared crime statistics from the mid-):**s to )@:*s in the >nited 1tates( ;rance( 2or'ay( and 3olland. 3e also made cross-cultural comparisons #et'een &ndia and >"anda and more industrialiEed nations. The results sho' that the steepness of the a"e-crime curve is indeed "reatest durin" recent times and amon" modem nations. ;arrin"ton $)@:8% compared the relationship #et'een a"e and crime for En"lish males usin" British 3ome ?ffice statistics from )@6:( )@8)( and )@:6. 3is results( reproduced in ;i"ure 5( sho' 59 that the rate of offendin" #y adolescents increased considera#ly over this historical period. Diverse factors may #e influential in accountin" for the chan"in" nature of the a"e-crime curve $<. C. .ilson( )@:6%. 3o'ever( & su""est that many of these factors are the very features of moderniEation and modernity invo/ed in this theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency. The earlier a"e of pu#erty and the extension of the period of childhood are "enerally overloo/ed as #y-products of moderniEation( #ut they have important implications for the experience of youths. The years #et'een )@6: and )@:6( covered in the study #y ;arrin"ton $)@:8%( also 'itnessed an incremental displacement of sons #y their mothers as the family,s secondary #read'inners $odell( ;ursten#er"( B 3ersh#er"( )@78%. The shift of 'or/ a'ay from farms( trades( and small family #usinesses to factories and service industries has stopped adolescents from sharin" the daily lives of older relatives. As Anderson $)@@*% has o#served( fe'er and fe'er Dold headsD are initiatin" youn" protP"Ps into the adult 'orld. Teens are less 'ell-inte"rated 'ith adults than ever #efore. .hat has emer"ed is an a"e-#ounded "hetto $1ch'endin"er B 1ch'endin"er( )@:9% from 'ithin 'hich it seems advanta"eous to mimic deviant #ehavior. &mportant for this theory( additional data su""est that secular chan"es may have influenced the a"e pattern of some crimes #ut not all. A comparison of the a"e-crime curve for data from the ;ederal Bureau of &nvesti"ation,s 1niform Crime Reports for )@5*( )@8*( and )@:* sho'ed that the adolescent pea/edness of the curves for most crimes increased in a linear fashion over the 5*-year period $1teffensmeier( Allan( 3arer( B 1treifel( )@:@%. 3o'ever( the authors noted that
60 the shift to'ard more pea/ed distri#utions is "reater for some types of offenses than for others. The shifts are comparatively small for the person crimes and for those property offenses primarily involvin" older offenders $e.".( fraud and for"ery%( 'hile the shifts are moderate to su#stantial for the youth-oriented( lo'-yield property offenses $e.".( ro##ery and #ur"lary%( pu#lic order offenses( and the su#stance-a#use offenses. $p. :!6%
1teffensmeier,s findin" of different curves for different offen- ses is consistent 'ith the distinction & have made #et'een t'o hypothetical types of offenders. ?n the one hand( life-course-persistent offenders $'ith mild neuropsycholo"ical impairment( poor self-control( patholo"ical interpersonal relationships( 'ea/ connections to other people( and a lifelon" antisocial personality confi"uration% should account for violence a"ainst persons as 'ell as for crimes committed in late life. ?n the other hand( adolescence-limited offenders should account primarily for crimes that serve to meet adolescents, lust for ac/no'led"ment and privile"e: theft( vandalism( pu#lic order( and su#stance a#use.
&n an earlier section( it 'as contended that life-course-persistent antisocial #ehavior represented an especially pernicious and tenacious form of psychopatholo"y. y vie' of adolescence-limited delin+uency is stri/in"ly different: &ts prevalence is so "reat that it is normative rather than a#normal. &t is flexi#le and adapta#le rather than ri"id and sta#le: most delin+uent careers are of relatively short duration #ecause the conse+uences of crime( althou"h reinforcin" for youths cau"ht inside the maturity 62 "ap( #ecome punishin" to youths as soon as they a"e out of it. &nstead of a #iolo"ical #asis in the nervous system( the ori"ins of adolescence-limited delin+uency lie in youn"sters, #est efforts to cope 'ith the 'idenin" "ap #et'een #iolo"ical and social maturity. oreover( neither this theory nor the empirical evidence su""ests that there are lin/s #et'een mental disorders and short-term adolescent delin+uency. Accordin" to this theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency( the #ehavior of youths 'ho ma/e the transition to delin+uent "roups near adolescence is readily understood as a "roup social phenomenon( it does not represent individual-level deviance. Cuay $)@:7% concurred:
A second pattern . . . involves #ehavior of a less overtly a""ressive and interpersonally alienated nature. &n fact( "ood peer relations in the context of delin+uency are at the core of this pattern. . . . There is little( if any( reason to ascri#e psychopatholo"y to youths manifestin" this pattern: it may 'ell represent an ad-ustive response to environmental circumstances. $p. )6)%
&t is my stance that individual characteristics 'ill not predict adolescence-limited offendin"A it is a product of an interaction #et'een a"e and historical period. True( past studies have reported lo' to moderate correlations #et'een adolescent delin+uency and individual difference varia#les $such as &C%. 3o'ever( none of these studies excluded life-course-persistent su#-ects #efore analysis. Thus( it remains unclear 'hether the o#tained correlations represent linear monotonic relationships #et'een varia#les or DoutlierD effects of the extreme scores of life-course-persistent 63 su#-ects. ;or example( in the 2e' Kealand sample( the often-reported :-point &C difference $3irschi B 3indelan"( )@77% #et'een delin+uents and nondelin+uents o#tains( #ut it is the pooled result of a )-point mean deficit for adolescence-onset delin+uents and a )7-point mean deficit for childhood-onset delin+uents. The same pattern o#tains for measures of readin" achievement and impulsivity $offitt( )@@*a: .hite et al.( in press%.
#he 'vidence and the Alternatives
&n this theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency( & have made several novel propositions. & have su""ested that adolescence-onset delin+uency constitutes social mimicry of a patholo"ical type of antisocial child. & have su""ested that the motivation for such mimicry follo's from a maturity "ap #et'een #iolo"ical adulthood and ascri#ed adulthood. & have su""ested that delin+uent mimicry is reinforced #y its o'n conse+uences 'hile a youth is inside the maturity "ap. & have su""ested that those conse+uences lose their re'ardin" properties after youths a"e out of the "ap( extin"uishin" delin+uency. All three of the components of this theory are needed to support my assertion that adolescence-limited delin+uency is not psychopatholo"y. Because of the ne'ness of this set of hypotheses( there is yet no literature of studies specifically desi"ned to test them. 2onetheless( it 'as possi#le to "lean from the existin" literature empirical evidence in support of most aspects of the theory. There is some evidence for the mimicry component. A drift into delin+uent peer relationships does match the timin" of the maturity "ap. As predicted( most teens appear to en"a"e in delin+uency #ecause they are simply a'are of 64 delin+uent peer #ehavior( not #ecause they share attitudes or close friendships 'ith delin+uents. Conversely( the most experienced early-onset delin+uents do interact 'ith other adolescents( al#eit #riefly-and 'ith their trademar/ antisocial style. There is some evidence for the motivational component. The maturity "ap has 'idened durin" this century( and( as predicted #y the theory( the chan"e has coincided 'ith a differential increase in teen crime. After pu#erty( youn"sters, thou"hts do turn increasin"ly to provin" their o'n adultness( and( as predicted #y the theory( the particular types of crimes that increased amon" adolescents this century are ones that satisfy 'ishes for adult privile"es. There is less evidence for the reinforcement component. =e- search su""ests that youn"sters ta/e up dru" and alcohol use #ecause it ma/es them feel independent( #ut studies of the sym#olic re'ard value of other delin+uent acts have not yet #een reported. There is #etter evidence that the informal conse+uences of crime #ecome deterrents after youn" adults exit the maturity "ap. As predicted( youn" adults, desistence from crime is influenced #y their expectancies of informal sanctions from family( employer( and community. To date( almost no studies have discriminated childhood-onset persistent delin+uents from adolescence-onset delin+uents and then examined the specific correlates of delin+uency in the latter "roup. Because the availa#le literature mixes the t'o types of de- lin+uents. it is difficult to evaluate the predictions from this theory a"ainst extant findin"s. 3o'ever( in evaluatin" the empirical foundation for this theory of adolescence-limited delin+uency( it is( helpful to contrast the theory 'ith its most favored predecessors: control theories and social learnin" theories. 65 Control theories of delin+uency point to 'ea/ social controls( such as lax supervision #y adults or 'ea/ #onds to parents( as the causes of #ur"eonin" delin+uency $e.".( 3irschi( )@8@%. The data#ase for control theories is a cross-sectional correlation #et'een measures of delin+uency and supervision in adolescent samples. =esearch has yet to demonstrate that parentin" practices chan"e #efore teen,s interest in pro#lem #ehavior #e"ins.GviH ore critical( control theories do not explain 'hy antisocial #ehavior per se is the outcome of 'ea/ened social control systems. .hy do unsupervised teens not mo' la'ns for the elderlyJ .hy don,t 'ea/ly attached youths "ather in "roups to do more al"e#ra home'or/J &n ans'er( social control theories rely on the philosophical assumption that all humans are inherently antisocialA crime must thus emer"e spontaneously( #y default( 'henever social controls are 'ea/ened. A taxonomic theory cannot afford the luxury of this philosophical premise a#out the universal mainsprin"s of human #ehavior. & offer instead an ans'er that lin/s individual motivation for crime to its ecolo"ical context: Al"e#ra home'or/ does not ma/e a statement a#out independenceA it does not assert that a youth is entitled to #e ta/en seriously. Crime does. 3o' do pu#escent teens come to /no' a#out antisocial #ehavior and its effectsJ & have su""ested that they vicariously o#serve the life-styles of the life-course-persistent youths in their midst. Control theories assert that( in the a#sence of any such models( innocents 'ould invent delin+uency. Callin" on learnin" theory to explain -uvenile delin+uency( as & have done in this section( is not uni+ue. 1ocial learnin" theories have su""ested that delin+uency follo's the learnin" of attitudes conducive to crime $e.".( 1utherland B Cressey( )@7:%. 3o'ever( social learnin" theories of delin+uency have not as/ed( 'hy do so many people learn the attitudes at the same life sta"eJ .hy do they learn them so rapidlyJ .hat suddenly motivates that learnin"J .hat reinforces itJ .ho are the DteachersDJ .hy are deviant 66 attitudes unlearned so readily a fe' years laterJ 1ocial learnin" theories descri#e aspects of the process #y 'hich an individual ac+uires delin+uent s/ills. 3o'ever( 'ithout a motivational component( social learnin" theories do not address the inescapa#le epidemiolo"ical facts a#out adolescent delin+uency. This developmental analysis of adolescence-limited delin+uency invo/es the maturity "ap as an explanation for the motivation and timin" of adolescence-limited delin+uency. The concept of social mimicry is #orro'ed to explain 'hy healthy adolescents adopt the style of youths 'ho have #een antisocial since early childhood. Thus( this narrative attempts to ans'er some +uestions #e""ed #y earlier theories.
Comparin" These T'o Theories .ith ?thers
1tudents of antisocial #ehavior have #een #lessed 'ith a num#er of thou"htful theories. As a "roup( the theories have tended to #e D"eneralD theories of crimeA each extends its causal explanation to all offenders. 4eneral theories that summon sociolo"ical processes to ex- plain crime and delin+uency have provided valua#le insi"hts a#out the proximal mechanisms that promote -uvenile delin- +uency $e.".( Bec/er( )@8:A Clo'ard B ?hlin( )@8*A 3a"an( )@:7A 3irschi. )@8@A Lemert( )@87A 1ha' B cIay( )@5!A 1utherland B Cressey( )@7:%. 3o'ever( sociolo"ists have trained their lenses on the adolescent a"e period( 'hen the pea/ prevalence of criminal involvement occurs( and 'hen antisocial #ehavior is most easily studied 'ith survey methods $3a"an( 4illis( B 1impson( )@:9A 1ampson B Lau#( )@@!%. 3istorically( reliance on le"al definitions of antisocial #ehavior and record sources of data /ept delin+uency researchers focused on the adolescent onset of ille"al 67 #ehavior. Conse+uently( many delin+uency theories have failed to address the sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior that #e"ins %efore adolescence( durin" early childhood. &n addition( most sociolo"ical theories invo/e amplifyin" causal mechanisms that seem to i"nore the empirical facts a#out the enormous amount of desistence from crime that hap- pens soon after adolescence $4ove( )@:9%. Causal factors such as lo' social class( unemployment( cultural approval for violence( and deviant la#els do not seem to remit contemporaneously 'ith that undenia#le do'n'ard shift in the prevalence of offenders durin" early adulthood. 4eneral theories that invo/e causal varia#les from personal- ity psycholo"y or #iolo"y have tau"ht researchers much a#out ho' individual differences predispose to'ard crime $e.".( Bo'l#y( )@::A Bui/huisen( )@:7A Clonin"er( )@:7A Eysenc/( )@77A 4orenstein B 2e'man( )@:*A ednic/( )@77%. 3o'ever( these theories( too( fail to provide a satisfyin" account( Because such theorists have trained their lenses on early childhood and adulthood $often to the ne"lect of adolescence%( they have failed to anticipate the enormous sur"e in the prevalence of antisocial involvement that occurs during adolescence. 1uch theories typically rely on the sta#ility of individual differences in traits such as impulsivity( neuroticism( autonomic nervous system reactiv- ity( or lo' intelli"ence. Psycholo"ical theories cannot explain the onset and desistence of adolescent delin+uency 'ithout positin" compellin" reasons for a sudden and dramatic population shift in crimino"enic traits follo'ed #y return to #aseline a fe' years later. Despite the imperfect fit of many existin" theories to the epidemiolo"ical facts( data in partial support of each theory a#ound. The resultin" stalemate has en"endered amon" stu- dents of crime a "entlemen,s a"reement to disa"ree. The dual taxonomy descri#ed in this article ar"ues that this compromise may #e needless. The competin" theories may all #e correct( #ut the processes they descri#e may fit #etter 68 for different types of delin+uents or may operate at different developmental sta"es in the natural history of antisocial #ehavior. Amon" the many mechanisms touted #y this developmental taxonomy( fe' are #rand ne'. .hat is ne' is the 'ay in 'hich many different theories of delin+uency have #een inte"rated under a taxonomic um#rella. &ndeed( this developmental taxonomy may serve to reconcile disa"reements( controversies( and misunderstandin"s in re- search on antisocial #ehavior. ;or example( the developmental taxonomy may account for effects that appear( disappear( and reappear as a function of the a"e of research su#-ects. Behavior"enetic studies have sho'n that childhood a""ression and adult crime are herita#le( 'hereas -uvenile delin+uency is much less so $DiLalla B 4ottesman( )@:@: Edel#roc/( =ende( Plomin( B Thompson( in press%. ?ther correlates sho' also stron" relationships to antisocial #ehavior 'hen it is measured in children and adults #ut only 'ea/ relationships to antisocial #ehavior measured durin" adolescence. 1uch a"e-related fluctuations in effect siEe have #een noticed for the associations amon" antisocial #ehavior and social class $Elliott B 3uiEin"a( )@:6%( "ender $1mith B 0isher( )@:*%( and readin" pro#lems $B. au"han( personal communication( ?cto#er )@@*A urray( )@78%. These disappearin" effects yield $unnecessary% controversyA they may #e an inadvertent conse+uence of mixin" apples 'ith oran"es 'hen usin" adolescents as research samples. & have here proposed that the ratio of life-course-persistents to their social mimics 'ill differ as a function of the a"e of the research sample. 1amples of antisocial children and adults should contain relatively more life-course-persistent su#-ects( #ut in samples of delin+uent teens( adolescence-limited su#-ects 'ill far outnum#er their persistent peers. Conse+uently( effect siEes for the correlates of persistent antisocial #ehavior should #e attenuated in adolescent samples( and developmental interpretations of cross-sectional data 'ill #e confounded. 2ote one 69 implication: <uvenile delin+uents may not #e the #est "roup to study if researchers 'ish to detect the correlates of persistent crime or antisocial psychopatholo"y.
1trate"ies for =esearch
'pidemiological $redictions
Accordin" to the theory( natural histories of antisocial #ehav- ior should #e found at predicta#le prevalence rates in samples follo'ed from childhood until adolescence. Less than )*F of males should sho' extreme antisocial #ehavior that #e"ins durin" early childhood and is thereafter sustained at a hi"h level across time and across circumstances( throu"hout childhood and adolescence. A much lar"er num#er of males( a ma-ority( should sho' similar levels of antisocial #ehavior durin" the adolescent a"e period #ut should fail to meet research criteria for a childhood history of sta#le and pervasive pro#lem #ehavior. Teena"ed males 'ho a#stain from any and all delin+uency should #e relatively rare. ;alse-positive su#-ects( 'ho meet criteria for a sta#le and pervasive antisocial childhood history and yet recover $esche' delin+uency% after pu#erty( should #e extremely rare. A specific research desi"n is needed to evaluate 'hether these epidemiolo"ical parameters 'ill #e #orne out. 1amples should #e representative to tap the population ran"e of natural histories. The same individuals should #e studied lon"itudinally to descri#e the tra-ectories of individuals as opposed to population shifts. =eports of antisocial #ehavior should #e "athered from multiple sources to tap pervasiveness across circumstances. Antisocial #ehavior 70 should #e assessed repeatedly from childhood throu"h adolescence to capture sta#ility and chan"e across time. easures of antisocial #ehavior should #e sensitive to de- velopmental hetero"eneity to tap individual differences 'hile allo'in" for the emer"ence of ne' forms of antisocial #ehavior $e.".( automo#ile theft% or for the forsa/in" of old forms $e.".( tantrums%. &f appropriate research desi"ns fail to yield the predicted in- dividual natural histories $or "ro'th curves%( at or near the predicted #ase rates( then the theory is 'ron". 3o'ever( if su#-ects are found 'ho match the natural histories of this taxonomy( then the follo'in" hypotheses may #e tested a#out differential predictors and outcomes(
$redictions A%out Differential Correlates of )ife-Course- $ersistent and Adolescence-)imited Antisocial Behavior
Accordin" to the theory( the life-course-persistent type has its ori"ins in neuropsycholo"ical pro#lems that assume measura#le influence 'hen difficult children interact 'ith crimino"enic home environments. Be"innin" in childhood( discipline pro#lems and academic failures accumulate increasin" momentum( cuttin" off opportunities to practice prosocial #ehavior. As time passes( recovery is precluded #y maladaptive individual dispositions and narro'in" life options( and delin+uents are channeled into antisocial adult life-styles. Thus( the stron"est prospective predictors of persistent antisocial #ehavior are anticipated to #e measures of individual and family characteristics. These measures include health( "ender( temperament( co"nitive a#ilities( school achievement( personality traits( mental disorders $e.".( hyperactivity%( family attachment #onds( child-rearin" 71 practices( parent and si#lin" deviance( and socioeconomic status( %ut not age0 Accordin" to the description of adolescence-limited delin- +uency( youths 'ith little ris/ from personal or environmental disadvanta"e encounter motivation for crime for the first time 'hen they enter adolescence. ;or them( an emer"in" appreciation of desira#le adult privile"es is met 'ith an a'areness that those privile"es are yet for#idden. After o#servin" their antisocial peers, effective solution to the modern dilemma of the maturity "ap( youths mimic that delin+uent solution. Perversely( the conse+uences of delin+uency reinforce and sustain their efforts( #ut only until a"in" into adulthood #rin"s a su#-ective shift in the valence of the conse+uences of crime. Then such offenders readily desist from crime( su#stitutin" the prosocial s/ills they practiced #efore they entered adolescence. This narrative su""ests a direct contrast 'ith the predictions made for persistent antisocial #ehavior. &ndividual differences should play little or no role in the prediction of short-term adolescent offendin" careers. &nstead( the stron"est prospective predictors of short-term offendin" should #e /no'led"e of peer delin+uency( attitudes to'ard adulthood and autonomy( cultural and historical context( and age0 &f life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited delin+uents( defined on the #asis of their natural histories( do not sho' the predicted differential patterns of correlates( then the theory is 'ron".
$redictions A%out #ypes of (ffenses
Accordin" to the theory( the t'o types 'ill en"a"e in different patterns of offendin". Adolescence-limited offenders should en"a"e primarily in crimes that sym#oliEe 72 adult privile"e or that demonstrate autonomy from parental control: vandalism( pu#lic order offenses( su#stance a#use( DstatusD crimes such as runnin" a'ay( and theft. Life-course-persistent offenders should spa'n a 'ider variety of offenses( includin" types of crimes that are often committed #y lone offenders. Thus( in addition to the aforementioned crime types( they should commit more of the victim-oriented offenses( such as violence and fraud. &f "roups of life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited delin+uents( defined on the #asis of their natural histories( do not sho' the predicted differential patterns of antisocial #ehaviors( then the theory is 'ron".
$redict ions A%out Desistence +rom Crime
Accordin" to this theory( transition events in the life course are not unconditional determinants of desistence from crime. &ndeed( events such as marria"e( employment( or military service can provide opportunities for desistence( #ut such events can also provide opportunities for continuity. Accordin" to this theory( individuals, reactions to life-transition events 'ill vary predicta#ly( dependin" on their personal antisocial histories. Adolescence-limited delin+uents can profit from opportunities for desistence( #ecause they retain the option of successfully resumin" a conventional life-style. Life-course-persistent delin+uents may ma/e transitions into marria"e or 'or/( #ut their in-urious childhoods ma/e it less li/ely that they can leave their past selves #ehindA they should select -o#s and spouses that support their antisocial style( and they should express antisocial #ehavior at home and at 'or/. &f life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited delin+uents( defined on the #asis of their natural histories( do not sho' 73 the predicted differential responses to youn"-adulthood transitions( then the theory is 'ron".
& have proposed that adolescence-limited delin+uency does not constitute patholo"y. =ather( it is social activity that is normative as 'ell as understanda#le from the perspective of contemporary teens. &f this assertion is true( the existence of people $ho'ever fe'% 'ho a#stain from all delin+uency durin" their adolescent years re+uires explanation. Earlier( & su""ested that adolescents 'ho commit no antisocial #ehavior have either $a% patholo"ical characteristics that exclude them from peer net'or/s( $#% structural #arriers that prevent them from learnin" a#out delin+uency( or $c% no experience of the maturity "ap $#ecause of late pu#erty or early access to adult roles%. &f adolescence-limited delin+uents and a#stainers( defined on the #asis of their natural histories( do not differ in these predicted 'ays( then that part of the theory is 'ron".
$redictions A %out the )ongitudinal 4ta%ility of Antisocial Behavior
& have proposed that most adults 'ho #ehave in an antisocial fashion are the same individuals 'ho #e"an antisocial #ehavior in early childhood. Durin" the pea/( 74 participation period of adolescence( those persistent individuals 'ill #e mas/ed #y the DnoiseD of their more numerous mimics. ;ollo'in" from this o#servation( estimates of the individual sta#ility of antisocial #ehavior are expected to violate the longitudinal la* 'hich states that relationships #et'een varia#les #ecome 'ea/er as the time interval #et'een them "ro's lon"er $Clar/e B Clar/e( )@:5%. ?ne study has found evidence that the lon"itudinal la' is violated in this 'ay 'hen antisocial #ehavior is studied in the same individuals over time. 1tattin and a"nusson $)@:5% reported that adult crime 'as predicted more stron"ly #y #ehavior at a"e )* than #y #ehavior #et'een a"es )9 and )7. This prediction a'aits additional corro#oration.
Conclusions
The #ul/ of research( includin" the lon"itudinal research( on antisocial #ehavior continues to #e performed on adolescent su#-ects. This is unfortunate. &f the taxonomy introduced here has merit( then studyin" offenders at the pea/ participation a"e offers the least favora#le prospects for understandin" the sort of antisocial su#-ect 'ho 'ill develop an adult career of crime and violence. =esearchers 'ill learn more a#out the etiolo"y of severe( persistent antisocial #ehavior if they sin"le out childhood-onset persistent cases for study and if they #e"in their studies durin" infancy( or even prenatally( and follo' the same individuals to adulthood. &n the past( cross-sectional comparisons that lumped all delin+uents to"ether may have resulted in attenuated effect siEes. This pro#a#ly o#scured some potential causal factors from vie' and produced underestimates of the importance of others. &ndeed( it is li/ely that most of the research findin"s cited in this article 75 'ere attenuated. &f the theory is correct( then the empirical footin" for it could have #een clearer if the distinction #et'een persistent and temporary delin+uents had #een made in past research. &n our past efforts to uncover the causes of persistent predatory crime( 'e have #een studyin" many of the ri"ht varia#les #ut in the 'ron" su#-ects and at the 'ron" point in the life course. Also unfortunate is that almost none of the contemporary theories of delin+uency do a "ood -o# explainin" delin+uency that #e"ins in adolescence and ends soon after. ?ur failure as a field to reco"niEe the hetero"eneity of adolescent delin+uency may have caused us to overloo/ important theoretical varia#les( such as #iolo"ical a"e( or structural factors in schools and nei"h#orhoods that determine access to antisocial models. =esearch is needed that analyEes the roles of #iolo"ical a"e and attitudes a#out maturity in the onset of teena"ed delin+uency. Delin+uency theories are 'oefully ill-informed a#out the phenomenolo"y of modern teena"ers from their o'n perspective. & fear that 'e cannot understand adolescence-limited delin+uency 'ithout first understandin" adolescents.
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GiH It may be countered that research has distinguished delinquent subtypes that are based on crosssectional in!ormation" #or e$ample% the delinquent beha&iors o! the li!ecoursepersistent type may be distinguished by relati&ely more o&ert aggression% 'hereas the adolescencelimited type may sho' relati&ely more co&ert o!!ending under peer in!luence" I agree" #actoranalytic studies ha&e re&ealed an aggressi&e (undersociali)ed( !actor and a (sociali)ed( peeroriented !actor *+uay% 1964a% 1964b" 1966,% and metaanalytic studies ha&e re&ealed (o&ert( and (co&ert( o!!ense patterns *-oeber . /chmaling% 1985," 0o'e&er% such scale pairs are highly and positi&ely correlated in adolescent samples% in 'hich the e&idence !or o!!ense &ersatility out'eighs e&idence !or o!!ense speciali)ation *1lein% 19842 3obins% 1978," 4rosssectional classi!ication has not pro&en e!!ecti&e at the le&el o! the indi&idual" 5y assertion that de&elopmental history is needed !or con!ident classi!ication is buttressed by the repeated !inding that ape o! onset o! antisocial beha&ior problems is the single best predictor o! adult criminal outcomes *#arrington% -oeber% 6lliott% et al"% 1990," 103
GiiH 7he conclusion that crime ceases in midli!e may be premature8 it is based on crosssectional age comparisons o! arrest and con&iction rates" 7here are al least !our reasons to doubt the conclusions that ha&e been based on this method" #irst% o!!icial records underestimate the amount o! true crime" /econd% there may be 9usticesystem biases to'ard underarrest and prosecution o! older persons" 7hird% death and imprisonment may selecti&ely remo&e persistent o!!enders !rom o!!icial crime statistics" #ourth% crosscohort comparisons may mista:e generational e!!ects !or age e!!ects *3o'e . 7ittle% 1977," 7hus% until longitudinal researchers collect sel!reports o! crime in the same indi&iduals !rom adolescence to old age% the midli!e disappearance o! crime 'ill remain an empirical question"
GiiiH ;et'een 9< and 22< o! males not arrested as 9u&eniles are arrested as adults% suggesting that adultonset o!!enders constitute bet'een 5< and 15< o! all males *!or a re&ie' see #arrington% =hlin% . >ilson% 1986," 0o'e&er% estimates that are based on such o!!icial data are too high because most o!!enders engage in crime !or some time be!ore they are !irst arrested" -ongitudinal studies o! sel!report delinquency sho' that only 1< to 4< o! males commit their !irst criminal o!!ense a!ter age 17 *6lliott% 0ui)inga% . 5enard% 1989," ?dultonset crime is not only &ery unusual% but it tends to be lo' rate% non&iolent *;lumstein . 4ohen% 1987,% and generally not accompanied by the many complications that attend a persistent and per&asi&e antisocial li!estyle *#arrington% -oeber% 6lliott% et al"% 1990,"
GivH /e&eral longitudinal studies ha&e sho'n that a history of antisocial beha&ior predicts early se$ual e$perience !or males relati&e to their age peers *6lliott . 5orse% )@:7A @essor% 4osta% @essor% . Aono&an% )@:6A >eiher% 0ui)inga% -i)otte% . Ban 1ammen% )@@)%. /peci!ically% almost all of the se$ual e$perience of an early adolescent cohort is concentrated among the most seriously delinquent 9F of its boys *6lliott . 5orse% 1987,"
GvH Aeterrence e!!ects on crime are contro&ersial" 0o'e&er% most past studies o! deterrence ha&e !e' implications !or my theory o! desistence among adolescencelimited delinquents !or se&eral reasons2 *a, /ome compare aggregatele&el crime rates across places or periods that di!!er on se&erity o! !ormal penalties" /uch designs ignore the in!luence o! indi&idualsC perceptions about the certainty o! sanctions" *b, /ome use crosssectional correlations bet'een past o!!ending and current perceptions o! sanction certainty" /uch designs e&aluate the e!!ects o! e$perience on perceptions% not the e!!ect o! perceptions on !uture o!!ending" 7hey sho' only that e$perienced criminals :no' that the ris: o! arrest is inconsequential" *c, 5ost !ocus on the se&erity and certainty o! !ormal legal sanctions% ignoring in!ormal sanctions !rom the broader social conte$t" Deople ha&e concerns about nonlegal problem consequences o! illicit beha&iors% 'hether they e$pect to get caught or not *Eagin . Daternoster% 1991," *d, 5ost !ail to study general samples during the age 'hen the desistence process pea:s% instead studying high school students or midli!e prison inmates" =nly the study by Daternoster et al" *1983, has compared prospecti&e measures o! indi&idual perceptions o! !ormal and in!ormal sanctions on the later o!!ending beha&ior o! young adult sub9ects"
GviH Indeed% some research indicates that changes in parental beha&ior may be a child effect" /teinberg *1981% 1987, has sho'n that pubertal maturation precedes emotional distance and less authoritarian parenting" 7here is much e&idence !or the acti&ational e!!ects o! pubertal hormones on problem beha&ior and on escalation o! parentchild con!lict *;uchanan% 6ccles% . ;ec:er% 1992," In the =regon Fouth /tudy% parental monitoring and discipline !ell to insigni!icance as predictors o! delinquent outcome 'hen the childCs prior antisocial beha&ior 'as entered !irst *Aishion% Dattersonm% /toolmiller% . /:inner% 1990,"