Snap ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll

14-15 August 2014

Attention: Television New Zealand
Contact: (04) 913-3000
Release date: 16 August 2014


Level One, 6-10 The Strand
PO Box 33690 Takapuna
Auckland 0740
Ph: (09) 919-9200

Level 9, Legal House
101 Lambton Quay
PO Box 3622, Wellington 6011
Ph: (04) 913-3000

www.colmarbrunton.co.nz



ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 2
- #
Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 2
Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 3
Results summary ............................................................................................................................................. 4
Awareness of the release of Dirty Politics ........................................................................................................ 5
Belief in Nicky Hagers allegations ................................................................................................................... 6
Influence of the allegations on views of the National Party ............................................................................. 7
Influence of the allegations on likelihood to vote ............................................................................................ 8





ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 3
- #
Methodology summary

CLIENT: Television New Zealand.
RELEASED: Saturday 16 August 2014.
POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place on 14 and 15 August 2014.
MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Thursday (50% of sample size target reached on this day).
TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.
SAMPLE POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters who live in New Zealand households that have a
landline telephone.
SAMPLE SELECTION: Nationwide random digit dialling of landline telephones using stratified
probability sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of
people in urban and rural areas. Interviewers ask to speak to the person in
each household aged 18 years or over with the next birthday. When required,
multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting eligibility is determined
at the first question.
SAMPLE SIZE: n = 509 eligible voters.
SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately 4.4%-points at the 95%
confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results
higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example,
results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately 2.6%-
points and 1.9%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 500 eligible voters.
INTERVIEW METHOD: Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).
WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Statistics New Zealand population
counts for age, gender, household size and ethnic identification.
REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. Percentages have been rounded up or down
to whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal
place. All sub-group differences listed in this report are statistically significant
at the 95% confidence level.
METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party support question was asked prior to any mention of the release of
Dirty Politics. The results of the party support question are not reported
because the methodology for a snap poll differs to the methodology for a
standard poll (eg, the interviewing days and times vary). This means that
changes in party support could not be interpreted reliably.

Note: This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or
reproduction of the results must be acknowledged as the ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll.



ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 4
- #
Results summary


This Snap ONE News Colmar Brunton poll was carried out among a random sample of 509 eligible New Zealand voters between 14 and 15 August
2014. The maximum sampling error for the total sample is approximately 4.3%-points at the 95% confidence level. Further detail about this poll, and
the methodology, can be found at: www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls. This poll was conducted in accordance with
the New Zealand Political Polling Code.
Q1 Have you heard of Nicky Hagers latest
book, called Dirty Politics, which was
released on Wednesday?
Q2 His book suggests smear campaigns and
leaks were organised at the highest levels of the
National Party, including the Prime Ministers
office. Do you believe these suggestions?
77%
Yes
23%
No
28%
Yes
43% No
29%
Dont
know
Q3 Have these allegations positively or
negatively influenced your view of the
National Party, or have they not made much
difference?
Q4 As a result of these allegations, are you
now more or less likely to vote on Election
Day, or have they not made much
difference?
4% Positively influenced
82% Not made
much difference
5% Dont know
9% Negatively influenced
12% More likely
87% Not made
much difference
1% Less likely


ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 5
- #
Awareness of the release of Dirty Politics
Have you heard of Nicky Hagers latest book, called Dirty Politics, which was released on Wednesday?


Total Eligible New
Zealand Voters
Yes 77%
No 23%
Total 100%
Base (n=) 509
Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters.
Over three quarters (77%) of eligible New Zealand voters have heard of the release of Dirty Politics, and just
under one quarter (23%) have not.
Those more likely than average (77%) to be aware of the release of Dirty Politics are:
those aged 35 years or more (89%)
NZ Europeans (87%).

Those less likely than average (77%) to be aware of the release of Dirty Politics are:
those aged 18 to 34 years (46%)
Auckland residents (68%)
Current Labour Party supporters (68%).



ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 6
- #
Belief in Nicky Hagers allegations
His book suggests smear campaigns and leaks were organised at the highest levels of the National Party,
including the Prime Ministers office. Do you believe these suggestions?


Current National
Party supporters
1

Total Eligible New
Zealand Voters
Yes 10% 28%
No 68% 43%
Dont know 23% 29%
Total 101%* 100%
Base (n=) 227 509
Max. MoE (%-points)
2
6.5 4.3
Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters. *Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding.
Over a quarter (28%) of eligible New Zealand voters say they believe Nicky Hagers suggestions that smear
campaigns and leaks were organised at the highest levels of the National Party, including the Prime Ministers
office. Forty three percent do not believe Nicky Hagers suggestions, and 29% say they dont know.
Those more likely than average (28%) to say they believe Nicky Hagers suggestions are:
Christchurch residents (45%)
Current Labour and Green Party supporters (43%).

Those more likely than average (43%) to say they do not believe Nicky Hagers suggestions are:
Current National Party supports (68%).




1
The party support question was asked prior to any mention of the release of Dirty Politics.
2
The maximum margin of error (Max. MoE) shown below each column is the sampling error for a result in that column of around 50% (at
the 95% confidence level and assuming simple random sampling). Results below and above 50% have a smaller margin of error.


ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 7
- #
Influence of the allegations on views of the National
Party
Have these allegations positively or negatively influenced your view of the National Party, or have they not
made much difference?


Current National
Party supporters
3

Total Eligible New
Zealand Voters
Positively influenced my view 5% 4%
Negatively influenced my view 2% 9%
Not made much difference 91% 82%
Dont know 3% 5%
Total 101%* 100%
Base (n=) 227 509
Max. MoE (%-points)
4
6.5 4.3
Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters. *Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding.
Eight in ten (82%) eligible New Zealand voters say Nicky Hagers allegations have not made much difference to
their view of the National Party. Nine percent say the allegations have negatively influenced their view, and 4%
say the allegations have positively influenced their view.
Those more likely than average (82%) to say the allegations have not influenced their view are:
Current National Party supporters (91%).

Those more likely than average (9%) to say the allegations have negatively influenced their view are:
Current Labour and Green Party supporters (19%).

No statistically significant sub-group differences were observed among those who say the allegations have
positively influenced their view.





3
The party support question was asked prior to any mention of the release of Dirty Politics.
4
The maximum margin of error (Max. MoE) shown below each column is the sampling error for a result in that column of around 50% (at
the 95% confidence level and assuming simple random sampling). Results below and above 50% have a smaller margin of error.


ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 8
- #
Influence of the allegations on likelihood to vote
As a result of these allegations, are you now more or less likely to vote on Election Day, or have they not
made much difference?


Total Eligible New
Zealand Voters
More likely to vote 12%
Less likely to vote 1%
Not make much difference 87%
Dont know -
Total 100%
Base (n=) 509
Based on Eligible New Zealand Voters.
Almost nine in ten (87%) eligible New Zealand voters say the allegations have not had much influence on their
likelihood to vote. Twelve percent say they are now more likely to vote, and 1% say they are now less likely to
vote.
Those more likely than average (12%) to say the allegations have made them more likely to vote are:
Current Labour Party supporters (19%).

No statistically significant sub-group differences were observed.