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The C-ROADS Climate Simulation
Assessing Greenhouse Gas EmissionsReduction Policies: New Science Toolsin the Service of Policy and Negotiation
Dr. Robert W. Corell
Vice-President of ProgramsThe H. John Heinz Center
for Science, Economics and the EnvironmentWashington, DC
Dr. John D. Sterman
Jay W. Forrester Professor of ManagementProfessor of Engineering SystemsDirector MIT System Dynamics GroupMIT Sloan School of Management
American Meteorological Society and the Heinz Center 
18 March 2009
 
Emissions now exceed the IPCC Worst-case Scenario.
   F  o  s  s   i   l   F  u  e   l   E  m   i  s  s   i  o  n  s   (   G   t   C   /  y  r   )
(IPCC Worst-Case)
 
Atmospheric CO
2
 Concentration, 2007:
385 ppm
37% above pre-industrial
Atmospheric CO
2
Concentration
Growth in Atmospheric CO
2
 
1970-79: 1.3 ppm/year 
 
1980-89: 1.6 ppm/year 
 
1990-99: 1.5 ppm/year 
 
2000-07:2.0 ppm/year 
 
2007:2.2 ppm/year 
 
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL
   A  c  c  e   l  e  r  a   t   i  n  g
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.pdf 
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