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Overview
Although real economy indicators such as production, investment and employment, affected
by Chuseok holidays, slowed improvement in October, the Korean economy overall stayed in
a recovery phase during September and October.
Mining and manufacturing production decreased 3.8 percent month-on-month, while service
output fell 1.4 percent. On a year-on-year basis, however, both indicators improved 0.2
percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. During September and October, mining and
manufacturing production rose 5.5 percent compared with the same period of the previous
year, while service output grew 3.0 percent.
Consumer goods sales improved at a faster pace, from an increase of 1.7 percent to 2.9
percent month-on-month and 6.6 percent to 9.8 percent year-on-year, backed by strong
automobile sales and Chuseok holiday demand.
Exports in November surged 18.8 percent year-on-year from the previous month’s 8.5
percent decline, positively affected by a rise in major exports and a low base effect.
The total number of workers hired gained 10,000 year-on-year in October, increasing at a
slower rate compared with the previous month’s gain of 71,000, due to weak construction.
The unemployment rate dropped from the previous month’s 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent.
Consumer prices in November accelerated a year-on-year increase from 2.0 percent a month
earlier to 2.4 percent, as strong international oil prices pushed up oil product prices.
To sum up, although the domestic economy stayed on a recovery trajectory, uncertainties
surrounding the economy remain, as employment and investment have not improved
enough, and international financial markets will possibly become unstable again.
The Korean government will, considering external factors and other uncertainties in the
economy, keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies, spend the 2009 budget as planned,
and make 2010 budget spending ready. On the other hand, measures to create jobs, support
the working class and advance service industries will continue to be carried out, while
external and internal uncertainties being closely monitored.
Economic Bulletin 3
1. Global economy
The global economy is gradually emerging from the recession as the third-quarter growth in
major countries such as the US, the EU and Japan turned positive. On November 19, the OECD
revised up its world economic growth outlook for 2010 to 3.4 percent, higher than its June
forecast of 2.3 percent growth. The organization projected economic growth of the U.S., the
EU and Japan at 2.5 percent, 0.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
However, uncertainties still remain over the international financial market due to a slow
recovery and Dubai World’s potential default on its debt payments.
US
Although the US revised down annualized real GDP growth (preliminary) in the third quarter
from 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent, the economy is on a recovery track.
Industrial production slowed its pace of growth in October, posting a 0.1 percent increase
month-on-month, as manufacturing of automobiles and components dropped 1.7 percent
due to the end of the Cash for Clunkers Program.
Sales of new and existing homes in October jumped 6.2 percent and 10.1 percent month-on-
month, respectively, backed by the tax credit for first-time home buyers, while the
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices rose 0.3 percent, marking the fourth consecutive
monthly increase.
In October, non-farm payrolls declined at a slower pace, whereas the unemployment rate hit
10.2 percent, the highest since 1983.
The Federal Reserve raised the growth outlook to a contraction of 0.4 to 0.1 percent in 2009
and growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2010, from the June forecast of 1.5 to 1.0 percent
shrinkage in 2009 and 2.1 to 3.3 growth in 2010.
4 December 2009
1-1 US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
Source: US Department of Commerce
Economic Bulletin 5
China Investment and consumption in China continued to improve, with exports declining at a
slower pace. Consumer prices eased the slide year-on-year and home prices accelerated the
increase.
Japan Japan’s real GDP grew 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter (advanced estimates) in the third
quarter, posting a rise for two straight quarters, as the improving global economy boosted
exports and industrial production.
The Cabinet Office declared the economy was in mild deflation, and was expected to reflect
the situation in the 2009 supplementary budget and the 2010 budget.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct
Real GDP -0.7 1.0 -0.7 -1.7 -3.0 -3.2 0.7 1.2 - -
Industrial and mining production -3.4 0.3 -1.5 -3.3 -17.7 -17.2 14.6 5.9 2.1 0.5
Retail sales (y-o-y, %) 0.3 1.8 0.2 0.8 -1.5 -3.9 -0.9 -3.4 -1.3 -0.9
Exports (y-o-y, %) -3.5 5.9 1.8 3.2 -23.1 -46.9 -38.5 -34.4 -30.6 -23.2
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1.4 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
Eurozone’s real GDP in the third quarter rose for the first time in five quarters, posting a 0.4
percent quarter-on-quarter increase (advanced estimates), helped by export growth in
France and Germany. Industrial production grew for a fifth consecutive month in September,
as orders increased in line with the economic recovery.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct
Real GDP 0.8 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -1.8 -2.5 -0.2 0.4 - -
Industrial production -1.8 1.0 -1.0 -1.7 -8.0 -8.6 -1.0 2.1 0.2 -
Retail sales -0.7 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -
Exports (y-o-y, %) 3.6 6.5 8.0 5.3 -5.0 -21.3 -23.4 -19.1 -18.4 -
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1
Source: Eurostat
6 December 2009
1-4 China’s GDP and fixed asset investment
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Economic Bulletin 7
2. Private consumption
Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter increased 1.5 percent quarter-on-
quarter, or 0.8 percent year-on-year.
Consumer goods sales in October rose 2.9 percent month-on-month, or 9.8 percent year-on-
year, posting a sixth consecutive monthly increase, thanks to brisk sales of durable, semi-
durable and non-durable goods.
On a month-on-month basis, durable and non-durable goods sales led a rise in consumer
goods sales, increasing 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, while semi-durable goods
sales inched up 1.3 percent. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales jumped 15.8
percent thanks to solid automobiles sales, while sales of semi-durable and non-durable
goods rose 3.6 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively.
Sales at large discounters rose year-on-year for the first time in five months, and sales at
both department stores and specialized retailers posted double-digit growth.
8 December 2009
2-1 Private consumption
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 9
In November, consumer goods sales are likely to slightly decrease month-on-month due to a
high base effect from Chuseok holidays. The year-on-year index, however, will continue to
rise, given improvement in advanced estimates.
Domestic credit card spending surged 18.3 percent year-on-year, expanding the upward
trend from the previous month’s 9.4 percent.
Sales at department stores grew 6.4 percent year-on-year, posting an increase for nine
consecutive months, although the pace of increase slightly decelerated compared with the
previous month. Sales at large discounters reversed to decrease by 2.8 percent year-on-year
in November, after a month of year-on-year growth in October.
Domestic sales of Korean cars soared 83.6 percent year-on-year, affected by the release of
new cars, demand surge before expiration of the tax break for new car purchases and a low
base effect from the previous year.
Gasoline sales fell 1.6 percent year-on-year due to a decline in demand, as fear about the
spread of H1N1 influenza discouraged people from traveling.
10 December 2009
2-4 Department store and discount store sales (current value)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
Economic Bulletin 11
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter posted a quarter-on-quarter
increase of 10.4 percent, and a year-on-year loss of 7.4 percent.
2009
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
12 December 2009
3-1 Facility investment by type
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 13
4. Construction investment
Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter rose 2.7 percent year-on-
year, and declined 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter.
Construction completed (current value) in October dropped 6.5 percent year-on-year due to
a setback in the private sector, although civil engineering works in the public sector stayed
on a positive track.
Construction orders increased 16.3 percent year-on-year due to growing orders in both the
public and private sector. Private sector construction orders advanced from a year earlier for
two consecutive months for the first time since May 2008.
14 December 2009
4-1 Construction investment
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 15
5. Exports and imports
Exports in November increased 18.8 percent year-on-year to US$34.27 billion.
The large increase in exports is mainly attributed to a low base effect from the previous year.
Daily average exports in working-day-adjusted-terms edged up from the previous month.
Semiconductors (up 80.7%), liquid crystal devices (up 66.8%), and household appliances
(up 43.7%) posted a substantial increase. Meanwhile, vessels (down 3.3%) and automobiles
(down 13.7%) decreased.
By regional category, exports to China (up 54.7%) and the ASEAN region (up 33.4%)
expanded significantly, while exports to the US (down 0.7%) slowed the fall.
(US$ billion)
2008 2009
Annual Nov Jan-Nov Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Nov Jan-Nov
Exports 422.01 28.84 394.89 74.41 90.69 94.99 34.07 33.96 34.27 328.31
(y-o-y, %) 13.6 -19.5 16.7 -25.2 -20.8 -17.5 -9.0 -8.5 18.8 -16.9
Average daily exports 1.53 1.28 1.57 1.10 1.30 1.32 1.42 1.48 1.49 1.29
Imports 435.27 28.85 408.70 71.42 73.72 84.79 29.75 30.33 30.22 290.49
(y-o-y, %) 22.0 -15.0 26.6 -32.7 -35.8 -31.0 -24.7 -16.0 4.7 -28.9
Average daily imports 1.58 1.28 1.63 1.06 1.06 1.18 1.24 1.32 1.31 1.14
Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in November rose 4.7 percent year-on-year to US$30.22 billion, but average daily
imports in working-day-adjusted-terms slightly fell from the previous month. Year-on-year
imports of capital goods and consumer goods reversed to an increase, while raw material
imports continued to decline affected by a drop in crude oil imports due to temporary
inventory adjustment.
The trade balance in November posted a surplus of US$4.05 billion, staying in the black for
ten straight months since February 2009.
(US$ billion)
2008 2009
Annual Nov Jan-Nov Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Nov Jan-Nov
Trade balance -13.27 -0.01 -13.81 2.99 16.97 10.19 4.32 3.63 4.05 37.82
Source: Korea Customs Service
16 December 2009
5-1 Exports (customs clearance basis)
Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin 17
6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production in October fell 3.8 percent month-on-month, with
working days decreasing due to Chuseok holidays, but year-on-year it rose 2.0 percent,
maintaining the upward trend.
By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 32.7%) and chemical products (up
5.6%) increased year-on-year, while audio visual communications equipment (down 15.5%)
and automobiles (down 12.8%) decreased.
Shipments fell 3.1 percent year-on-year, while the level of inventory dropped at a faster pace
from the previous month’s 14.0 percent to 16.4 percent.
By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 19.5%) and chemical
products (up 11.8%) rose, while those of audio visual communications equipment (down
13.4%) and automobiles (down 7.3%) declined. The inventories of chemical products (down
27.4%), automobiles (down 27.0%), and primary metals (down 21.9%) went down.
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector registered 77.3 percent, down 3.0
percentage points month-on-month.
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) 77.2 78.3 77.3 73.7 78.9 77.7 80.2 -
activity Production capacity 5.2 5.3 4.9 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 -
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period
Source: Statistics Korea
18 December 2009
6-1 Industrial production
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3 Inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin 19
7. Service sector activity
Service activity in October decreased 1.4 percent from the previous month partly due to the
H1N1 flu pandemic. From a year earlier, however, service output expanded 1.5 percent.
By business category, real estate & renting services (up 14.3%), healthcare & social welfare
services (up 11.2%) and financial & insurance services (up 4.9%) led the year-on-year
increase in the service sector.
Meanwhile, entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 6.6%) and educational services
(down 5.7%) declined from a year earlier.
1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
Source: Statistics Korea
Despite robust advanced indicators including credit card spending, service activity in
November is likely to remain at a similar level to the previous month mainly affected by the
H1N1 flu for which the government on November 3 raised its alert status to its highest “Red”
level.
20 December 2009
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8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in October climbed by 10,000 from a year earlier, with the
government’s efforts to create jobs.
The employment rate stood at 59.3 percent, down 0.7 percentage points compared to the
same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points year-
on-year to 3.2 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.5 percentage points from
a year earlier to 7.6 percent.
(Change from same period in previous year, thousand)
2008 2009
Annual Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct
Unemployment rate (%) 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
Employment rate (%) 59.5 60.0 58.5 60.3 59.9 59.4 57.4 59.3 59.1 59.2 59.3
22 December 2009
8-1 Number of employed and employment growth
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin 23
9. Financial market
The KOSPI has surpassed the 1,600 points during the month boosted by an expected
upward revision of Korea’s growth rate as well as domestic listed companies’ better
performance in the third quarter.
The Korean main bourse, however, plunged around the end of the month, as investors are
increasingly worried about the fallout from the bankruptcy of US CIT group and Dubai
World’s six-month standstill on debt repayments.
Despite a record low value of transaction this year, foreign investors continued their net-
buying of Korean shares since July in line with expanded investment into emerging markets
by foreign investors.
The exchange rate dropped to 1,153 won, the lowest this year, on November 18, as the dollar
remained weak after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s decision to continue its
expansionary monetary policy. It, thereafter, turned to an increase as investors’ appetite for
safe assets grew amid Dubai World’s request for a standstill on debt payments.
The won/yen exchange rate rose to the 1,300 won range with the yen’s appreciation.
(End-period)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Change1
Won/Dollar 929.8 936.1 1,259.5 1,182.5 1,162.8 8.3
Won/100Yen 783.4 828.6 1,396.8 1,299.3 1,348.8 3.6
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24 December 2009
9-1 Stock prices
Economic Bulletin 25
9.3 Bond market
Treasury bond yields were down in November as the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain
its loose monetary policy while foreign investors posted a net buying of KTB (Korea Treasury
Bond) futures.
The yields fell at an even faster pace toward the end of the month as demand for safer assets
increased in the aftermath of Dubai World’s default on its debt payments.
(End-period)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Dec Dec Dec Dec Sep Oct Nov Change1
Call rate (1 day) 3.76 4.60 5.02 3.02 2.00 2.01 2.01 0
CD (91 days) 4.09 4.86 5.82 3.93 2.75 2.79 2.79 0
Treasury bonds (3 yrs) 5.08 4.92 5.74 3.41 4.39 4.44 4.10 -34
Corporate bonds (3 yrs) 5.52 5.29 6.77 7.72 5.53 5.58 5.21 -37
Treasury bonds (5 yrs) 5.36 5.00 5.78 3.77 4.81 4.94 4.61 -33
1. Basis point changes in August 2009 from end December 2008
Despite an increase in time deposits with higher deposit rates, bank deposits in October
reversed course to a decrease with industrial financial debentures transferred (16.5 trillion
won) in accordance with the split-up of the Korea Development Bank and the establishment
of the Korea Financial Corporation.
26 December 2009
9-4 Interest rates
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin 27
10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.94 billion surplus in October.
The goods account surplus expanded to US$5.72 billion from US$5.28 billion a month earlier
as exports showed strong performance led by vessels.
The service account deficit decreased to US$1.13 billion from the previous month’s US$1.63
billion, due to the improved travel account.
Despite an increase in dividend payments, the income account surplus remained at a level
similar to the previous month to record US$540 million as expanded foreign reserve boosted
interest income.
The current transfer account deficit slightly increased to US$190 million from the previous
month’s US$160 million with decreased inflow of overseas remittance.
(US$ billion)
2008 2009
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Jan-Oct
Current account -6.41 -5.21 -0.13 -8.58 7.52 8.58 13.17 10.31 4.03 4.94 37.00
- Goods balance 5.99 -1.22 5.72 -3.48 4.97 8.35 17.63 14.74 5.28 5.72 46.43
- Service balance -16.73 -5.07 -4.27 -5.69 -1.70 -1.88 -4.02 -5.32 -1.63 -1.13 -12.35
- Income balance 5.11 1.69 -0.65 1.36 2.71 0.83 0.18 1.62 0.55 0.54 3.17
- Current transfers -0.77 -0.61 -0.94 -0.77 1.55 1.28 -0.61 -0.73 -0.16 -0.19 -0.26
Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in October posted a net inflow of US$1.54 billion.
The direct investment account slightly expanded the net outflow to register US$280 million
from the previous month’s deficit of US$230 million due to an increase in overseas
investment by locals.
The portfolio investment account decreased the net inflow to record US$6.13 billion from
US$7.91 billion a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean stock market declined.
The financial derivatives account deficit rose from the previous month’s US$300 million to
post US$570 million, as revenue related to overseas financial derivative transactions
decreased.
The other investment account significantly expanded the net outflow to post US$3.74 billion
from the previous month’s deficit of US$60 million as financial institutions increased foreign
currency-denominated lending.
The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$3.5 billion in November as the
trade balance posted a surplus of US$4.05 billion.
28 December 2009
10-1 Current account balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin 29
11. Prices and international commodity prices
11.1 Prices
Consumer prices in November increased 2.4 percent month-on-month while rising 0.2
percent year-on-year.
The overall price index was up 0.2 percent month-on-month as prices of industrial goods,
which is relatively heavily weighted to the index, showed strength although prices for
agricultural, livestock and fishery products went down. Prices of agricultural, livestock and
fishery products declined 2.7 percent from the previous month due to increased supply with
the fall harvest season in full swing and favorable weather conditions.
Prices of oil products increased 3.0 percent from a month earlier affected by strong international oil
prices and LPG price increases in November.
Public utility charges remained at a similar level to the previous month as an increase in local heating
fees affected by the implementation of the fuel adjustment mechanism was almost negligible.
Despite higher expenses for dining-out affected by beef price increases, personal service charges
rose mere 0.1 percent due to the continuing deflation gap and price slash in mobile data charges.
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 2.5 percent
year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were
up 2.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
30 December 2009
11-1 Prices
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
Economic Bulletin 31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices
Fluctuating in the high-US$70s, international oil prices in November rose month-on-month
affected by the US dollar movement, oil stockpiles and new economic data.
(US$/barrel, period average)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Dubai crude 61.6 68.4 94.3 40.5 69.4 65.0 71.4 67.7 73.2 77.7
Brent crude 65.1 72.8 97.5 40.4 68.6 64.6 72.9 67.5 72.8 76.7
WTI crude 66.0 72.3 99.9 41.6 69.7 64.2 71.1 69.4 75.8 78.1
Source: KOREAPDS
Despite the won’s depreciation, domestic prices of oil products went up as strong
international oil product prices after mid-October were reflected with the time lag.
(Won/liter, period average)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Gasoline prices 1,492 1,526 1,692 1,329 1,607 1,639 1,670 1,681 1,627 1,655
Diesel prices 1,228 1,273 1,614 1,303 1,389 1,428 1,447 1,453 1,409 1,452
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of non-ferrous metals excluding nickel continued to rise while international prices of
grain including corn, wheat and soybean rose due to the weak dollar and increased export
demand.
Corn and wheat prices rose due to the weak dollar and increased demand while the soybean
price moved upward with strong US demand.
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2,019 2,400 2,536 1,767 2,117 2,082 2,159 2,147 2,197 2,243
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
Source: KOREAPDS
32 December 2009
11-4 International oil prices
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Economic Bulletin 33
12. Real estate market
12.1 Housing market
In November, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.3 percent month-on-month. The
pace of increase, however, decelerated for two straight months.
Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area, which is under the influence of low
season, financial regulations and supply of Bogeumjari Houses, remained steady. On the
other hand, apartment sales in other cities, especially metropolitan cities (up 0.8%),
increased relatively significantly.
The rental prices continued the upward pace although the rising pace decelerated with the
beginning of the winter low season.
Apartment sales transactions in October decreased 3.5 percent from 90,490 a month earlier
to post 87,329. The transactions were up 28.5 percent from a year earlier and 1.6 percent
compared with the monthly average recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.
34 December 2009
12-1 Real estate prices
Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin 35
12.2 Land market
Nationwide land prices in October rose 0.30 percent, a similar level to the previous month’s
0.31 percent. The accumulated increase rate from January to October was 0.31 percent, with
land prices standing below the record high in October 2008 by 3.83 percent.
Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area continued an upward trend as Incheon and
Gyeonggi province saw land prices rising by 0.51 percent and 0.42 percent, respectively. In
addition, other cities witnessed a higher price increases.
Land price increases in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
0.06 (Jul 2009) 0.09 (Aug) 0.12 (Sep) 0.16 (Oct)
Nationwide land transactions in October expanded 10.9 percent or 21,000 land lots from a
year earlier to 212,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were down 3.8
percent.
Land transactions in Gyeonggi (up 45.6%) and Incheon (up 34.7%) increased year-on-year in
terms of land lots while those of Daegu (down 25.9%) and South Jeolla province (down
17.6%) decreased.
36 December 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s
Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
Economic Bulletin 37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic
conditions, remains unchanged in October from the previous month.
The volume of imports, the domestic shipment index, the wholesale & retail sales index and
the service activity index contributed to the increase.
Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in October 2009 (m-o-m)
Volume of imports (3.2%), domestic shipment index (0.4%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.3%), service
activity index (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%), mining & manufacturing production
index (0.1%), value of construction completed(-0.1%), manufacturing operation ration index (-0.6%)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions,
went up 1.0 percentage point month-on-month in October. The 12-month smoothed change
in leading composite index increased 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, running on an
upward track since January.
The value of received construction orders, the composite stock price index, the indicator of
inventory cycle, the consumer expectations index, and the liquidity in the financial
institutions were up.
2009
Jan Feb Jul Aug Sep1 Oct1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) -1.9 0.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 92.4 92.0 96.2 96.7 96.9 96.9
(m-o-m, p) -2.2 -0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.0
12 month smoothed change
-4.0 -2.9 7.8 9.1 10.2 11.3
in leading composite index (%)
(m-o-m, %p) 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.1 1.1
1. Preliminary
38 December 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin 39
Policy Issues
2010 Economic Policies
Background
The current crisis is expected to bring about a fundamental paradigm shift in the world
economic order and industrial structure. There seems to be uncertainties in the world
economy which will not grow at as high a rate as it did before the crisis. In the process of
correcting the global imbalance and tightening financial regulations, disputes between
nations and re-emergence of protectionism are likely, along with competition for natural
resources and energy. Against this backdrop, the Korean government set up economic
policies for 2010, which is aimed at adapting the economy to low energy consumption,
exploring and nurturing new growth engines, boosting domestic demand, creating jobs and
strengthening social safety nets.
The 2010 economic policies center on improving the real economy and developing growth
potential. First of all, the government will make efforts to transform the nascent economic
recovery into robust and sustained growth that will stimulate investment and employment,
which, in turn, will result in real economy improvement.
40 December 2009
Main contents
The government will continue its expansionary fiscal measures until the private sector
rebounds, while withdrawing temporary measures as planned to ward off moral hazard.
Financial policies will remain eased with measures to brace for rising household and
corporate debts, but provisional measures to fight the global crisis will be unwound. The
government will gradually reduce temporary government jobs from 800,000 in 2009 to
550,000 in 2010, given the slow recovery of private sector employment. Government’s credit
guarantee will be extended until the first half of 2010, with the guarantee level declining
from 95 percent in 2009 to 90 percent in January 2010 and further down to 85 percent in July.
Korea will have more financial agility with flexible reserve requirements. Large-scale financial
institutions will be more closely monitored, given their considerable impact on the economy,
while banks will be banned from excessive lending. The government will also tighten
regulations on the foreign currency liquidity ratio and introduce guidelines for managing
foreign currency risks.
Plant exports and exports by SMEs and ship builders will be strongly backed: Korea
Eximbank will increase export financing from 53 trillion won in 2009 to 60 trillion won in
2010. The Korea Export Insurance Corporation will raise its support for export insurance from
170 trillion won in 2009 to 190 trillion won in 2010.
2. Creating Jobs
The government will found a basis for creating decent jobs in the private sector by
innovating service industries and increasing job market flexibility. Measures to develop
markets for professional services will be drawn up, which will be followed by law revisions.
The Medical Service Development Plan is now being made into regulations, and discussions
over allowing for-profit hospitals which accept funds from private investors are underway.
Industries creating more jobs and higher added value will receive more support: The
examples of the industries are social welfare services such as day caring and nursing, and
content and leisure industries. The government will provide assistance to municipal
Economic Bulletin 41
governments when they develop regionally specialized industries.
Regulations will be modified in a way to facilitate reforming job markets and stabilizing
labor-management relations. Rules concerning irregular workers will be examined based on
employment situations of irregular workers. The two-year limit of a contract term will be
applied with exceptions, for example a university lecturer position not to be affected by the
law. The government will encourage part-time employment to promote female hiring and
create family-friendly work environment.
As the private sector employment has not recovered yet, government’ s job creating efforts
will continue until private sector employment revives: Budgets for Hope Employment Project
through which 100,000 will find jobs and the internship program to recruit 37,000 college
graduates will be spent in the first half of 2010. In addition, job seekers will find more
opportunities in social welfare fields with 140,000 jobs in 2010, an increase of 11,000 from
2009’s 129,000.
To attract foreign investment to industries creating quality jobs, the government planned to
expand tax incentives and cash support: Foreign investment in future growth engines will be
eligible for the same tax exemption and reduction given to the investment in high-tech
industries. Government’s cash support will be expanded to small-scale foreign investments
along with an increased ceiling of the cash support.
The government proposed policy responses to improve livelihood of the working class as
belows: First, the government will stabilize consumer prices and real estate markets;
second, provide more jobs and educational opportunities; and third, strengthen social safety
nets. Measures to control inflation and real estate markets cover promoting fair competition
among producers, tightening mortgage loan conditions, and supplying more houses low
income classes can afford.
The government will keep pushing toward social safety nets not leaving out those in
desperate need of help. Social safety nets to be introduced in 2010 are aids for single
mothers at the age of 24 or younger, monthly pension plans for the seriously handicapped,
and financial aids for those with Alzheimer’s disease. Farmers and fishermen will pay
reduced premiums for the public health insurance and pension plan, and assistance for
farming and fishing will be available on their request in case of accidents or diseases
outbreaks.
Those receiving basic living support will be eligible for a savings account called ‘Raising
Hope’ designed to help become self-reliant. Regarding college loans, College students will
be able to choose the Income Contingent Repayment option from the first semester of 2010.
More students will benefit from after school vouchers, with which students pay for after
42 December 2009
school programs. The number of microcredit institutions will be increased from 30 to 200-
300 in 2010, along with the introduction of micro-insurance, which will use public funds from
the postal service insurance. Those from the low income class will be eligible for the
insurance at a monthly premium of 10,000 won.
Green industries and the four-river restoration project will be a foundation for a low-energy
consuming economy, and will expand Korea’s capacity to respond to future climate change.
To develop green industries, the government will certify green enterprises and technologies
from January 2010 to facilitate funding from private investors. Furthermore, certified green
technologies will be financed long-term at low cost through financial facilities exclusive for
green technologies including green savings and bonds. Existing manufacturers will be
strongly recommended to improve energy efficiency.
The government allocated more R&D budgets to green technologies from 2 trillion won in
2009 to 2.2 trillion in 2010, which will be appropriated to developing core technologies such
as offshore wind power generators and secondary batteries. Tax incentives will be increased
for R&D investment in those technologies from the current tax deduction of 3-6 percent to 20
percent for new growth engines, and 25 percent for core technologies. Funds for new growth
engines, worth 200 billion won, will be created, and existing funds will be attracted into early
investment in those fields.
The four river restoration project will step into the second phase in 2010, with 60 percent of
dredging and embankment construction completed by the end of the year and
compensation for land by the first half.
To promote energy saving, the current energy pricing system will gradually be changed in a
way to reflect fuel costs. To help develop technologies for clean energy production, CO2
emissions reduction and high energy efficiency, 760 billion won are earmarked in 2010, up
from 2009’s 640 billion.
The Korean government set up measures to address future challenges such as low birth
rates and growing mid-to long-term fiscal burden. On top of that, a solid basis for policy
making and new economic indices will be developed, while current methods used to
produce economic indicators being improved.
Government’s grants for In Vitro Fertilization will be expanded to couples earning below 150
percent of the national average income from those earning below 130 percent of the urban
average income. Grants for artificial fertilization will be added in 2010.
Economic Bulletin 43
Working parents with more than two kids will be offered various supports for child delivery
and rearing. More working parents will be eligible for education fee support as the income
bar for the support will be lowered. 70 percent of the low income bracket will be provided
with free education for second children and later ones.
The government will keep a total fiscal operating cost increase below one percent. Tax
expenditure budget will be introduced in 2010 to manage fiscal spending in a more
integrated way. Budgets will be spent more transparently with the introduction of the
accrual-based double entry accounting system. Introduction of Asset Liability Management
is under consideration, as a way to effectively manage the pension fund. Cooperated efforts
to improve financial soundness of the public health insurance will be made by the related
authorities.
Methods used to produce major economic indices will be improved to reduce a gap between
the indices and the real market. New housing market indicators will be introduced to show
the current market and future supply and demand. Indices reflecting changes affected by
low carbon green growth, multicultural families and ageing population will be developed.
44 December 2009
Economic
News Briefing
They reaffirmed the solid Korea-US alliance and agreed to further develop the partnership to
an exemplary strategic alliance of the 21st century. Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue,
President Lee and President Obama shared the view that the issue requires a definite and
comprehensive resolution, or “Grand Bargain”, and agreed to closely consult on measures
46 December 2009
to elaborate and implement the approach. Meanwhile, both sides recognized the economic
and strategic importance of the Korea-US FTA and committed to work together to move the
agreement forward. In addition, the two leaders highly praised the results of the G20
Summit held in Pittsburgh and promised to cooperate for the success of the upcoming G20
Summit in Korea.
Korea aims at curtailing its greenhouse gas emission to 569 million tons in 2020, down 4
percent from the 590 million tons it produced in 2005 and 30 percent below the projected
813 million tons it would produce in 2020, announced the government on November 17. The
plan is the most ambitious of three possible measures set out in July, and could put pressure
on developed nations to act more aggressively to fight global warming.
Korea’s reduction target reflects President Lee Myung-bak’s ambitious “green growth and
low carbon” policy. President Lee said in a statement that while the emission reduction
would present “short-term burdens” it would also bring “broader national gains.” He added
that Korea would be ready for industrialized countries’ carbon trade tariffs and could
strengthen its energy security and acquire market share first in rapidly growing green
sectors through aggressive greenhouse gas reduction.
In order to accept a country as its member, the agency assess the size of a country’s aid
program, the existence of appropriate institutions and policies to mange aid, the quality of a
country’s statistical reporting on ODA efforts, and a country’s ability and willingness to
implement important DAC recommendations. Korea’s gaining membership is significant
since it is the first nation that has successfully moved from an aid recipient to an aid donor
since the establishment of the OECD. As with the inclusion as a member into the DAC at this
time, Korea has become a member of all 25 sub-committees of the OECD.
Economic Bulletin 47
Meanwhile, the 2nd Korea-Africa forum was held in Seoul on November 24. In the joint
declaration, Korea and the African Union’s member states vowed to work together on social
and economic assistance projects. In addition, the Korean government has decided to
double its official development assistance (ODA) levels to the African region, invite 5,000
trainees, and send over 1,000 volunteers by 2012.
According to the blueprint, the government plans to set up FTA strategies to secure new
growth engines and link them with high value added services such as legal and accounting
services. Consequently, service industries such as law, accounting, medical care and
education will be pushed for strategic market opening. Regulations on real estate including
price cap will also be lifted in free economic zones (FEZs) to attract foreign investment.
Korean banks are required to hold at least 2 percent of their foreign-currency assets in safe
assets carrying an investment rating of ‘A’ or higher. From early 2010, both local banks and
branches of foreign banks are not allowed to trade forex forwards worth more than 125
percent of the value of exports to prevent excessive forex hedging. Asset-management
companies will be required to provide customers more information on forex hedge costs and
effects through prospectus and introduce investment products with different forex hedge
ratios. In addition, the minimum ratio of mid-to long-term foreign financing in foreign loan
portfolio (mid-to long-term financing / mid-to long-tern lending) at local banks will be raised
to 90 percent from the current level of 80 percent. The FSC will work towards tightening it to
100 percent or more in the first half of 2010.
48 December 2009
Bank of Korea expands inflation target band for 2010-2012
On November 26, the Bank of Korea set a new inflation target for 2010-2012. The target
inflation range has been expanded to between 2 percent and 4 percent, compared with a
2.5-3.5 percent range set for 2007-2009. With respect to broadening the inflation range from
0.5 percentage point to 1 percentage point, the bank noted uncertainties in prices would
likely to increase between 2010 and 2012 as inflation environments over the period would be
significantly different from the period before the global financial crisis. The inflation target
for the next horizon will be set before the end 2012 in order to ensure the continuity of
monetary policy.
Korea saw exports decrease of 20.9 percent during the January to September period, which
compares with a 27.8 percent contraction of worldwide exports. The Korean government
forecasts the country’s trade surplus to register a record high of US$40 billion this year.
Meanwhile, the Korean government will make every effort to open the door wider for
exporters through free trade agreements (FTAs) and lower transportation-related costs by
advancing logistics system at industrial parks, said the Ministry of Knowledge Economy on
November 30 on occasion of the country’s 46th Trade Day, an annual event. The government
hopes Korea to become the world’s eighth largest exporter by the year 2014.
Economic Bulletin 49
50 December 2009
Statistical
Appendices
Tables & Figures
1. National accounts
2. Production, shipment and inventory
3. Production capacity and operation ratio
4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment,
and estimated facility investment index
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
9. Balance of payments (I)
10. Balance of payments (II)
11. Prices
12. Employment
13. Financial indicators
14. Monetary indicators
15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin 51
1. National accounts
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices)
52 December 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Economic Bulletin 53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Service
Production Shipment Inventory
Period Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y production Y-o-Y
index index index
change (%) change (%) change (%) index change (%)
54 December 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Economic Bulletin 55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Consumer
goods
Period Durable Semi-durable Non-durable
sales
Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y
index
change (%) change (%) change (%) change (%)
56 December 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer
goods shipment index Consumer
Period (2005=100) Durable Non-durable sentiment index
Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y
change (%) change (%) change (%)
Economic Bulletin 57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment
and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2
Domestic machinery orders received Domestic
Estimated
excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) machinery
facility investment
Period shipment
index
excluding ship
Total Public Private (2005=100)
Manufacturing (2005=100)
58 December 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction
orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Economic Bulletin 59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Cycle of
Leading Coincident
coincident
Period index Y-o-Y index BSI (results) BSI (prospects)
index
(2005=100) change (%) (2005=100)
(2005=100)
60 December 2009
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2
(million US$)
Economic Bulletin 61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3
(million US$)
62 December 2009
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3
(2005 = 100)
Producer prices
Consumer prices Export & import prices
(2005=100)
Period
All Items Commodity Service Core All items Commodity Export Import
Economic Bulletin 63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
2008 1 23,738 22,964 4,022 17,651 3.3 16,032 8,815 5,115 2,102
2 23,703 22,884 4,017 17,510 3.5 15,836 8,804 5,055 1,977
3 24,114 23,305 3,999 17,732 3.4 15,993 8,898 5,023 2,073
4 24,495 23,711 4,001 17,929 3.2 16,258 8,894 5,127 2,238
5 24,692 23,939 3,987 18,046 3.0 16,405 9,010 5,165 2,231
6 24,727 23,963 3,993 18,067 3.1 16,385 9,039 5,132 2,214
7 24,673 23,903 3,975 18,088 3.1 16,363 9,054 5,163 2,146
8 24,380 23,617 3,899 17,872 3.1 16,104 9,107 4,970 2,027
9 24,456 23,734 3,928 17,951 3.0 16,221 9,142 5,015 2,064
10 24,582 23,847 3,945 18,005 3.0 16,314 9,138 5,034 2,142
11 24,566 23,816 3,897 18,086 3.1 16,377 9,111 5,071 2,195
12 24,032 23,245 3,888 17,935 3.3 16,189 9,068 5,082 2,040
2009 1 23,709 22,861 3,895 17,663 3.6 16,053 9,102 4,982 1,969
2 23,667 22,742 3,842 17,539 3.9 15,953 9,194 4,862 1,897
3 24,062 23,110 3,813 17,701 4.0 16,076 9,174 4,941 1,961
4 24,456 23,524 3,846 17,899 3.8 16,353 9,227 5,051 2,076
5 24,658 23,720 3,846 18,016 3.8 16,484 9,316 5,076 2,092
6 24,927 23,967 3,836 18,251 3.9 16,736 9,340 5,281 2,115
7 24,756 23,828 3,802 18,210 3.7 16,589 9,383 5,255 1,952
8 24,525 23,620 3,761 18,048 3.7 16,479 9,472 5,117 1,890
9 24,630 23,805 3,810 18,155 3.4 16,687 9,606 5,151 1,931
10 24,655 23,856 3,858 18,130 3.2 16,690 9,628 5,170 1,892
11 24,625 23,806 3,855 18,267 3.3 16,790 9,603 5,256 1,931
Y-o-Y change (%)
2007 1.0 1.2 -1.0 2.2 - 2.7 5.1 0.6 -1.2
2008 0.5 0.6 -1.3 1.3 - 1.5 4.5 -1.8 -2.6
64 December 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4
(period average)
Economic Bulletin 65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5
(period average) (billion won)
66 December 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
Economic Bulletin 67