Professional Documents
Culture Documents
O
OTA
N
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
Insurgency Overview O
OTA
N
HIG
Peshawar Shura
HQN
AQSL
Quetta Shura
• We face a TB dominated insurgency -- Two groups emerging; Afghanistan and Pakistan Taliban
• Overarching strategy and plans remain unclear, but strategic goals are clear and coming into alignment
• Operational level coordination occurs across the country; best, most frequent coordination observed at
the tactical level
• AQ provides facilitation and funding while relying on insurgent safe havens in Pakistan UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
Insurgent Strategy: As of 10 DEC 09 O
OTA
N
Intentions Directives
• We don’t have to beat ISAF militarily, just outlast • Reiterated prohibitions on the following:
international will to remain in Afghanistan – Mistreating population
• Continue population outreach and protection programs – Forcibly taking personal weapons
• Continue successful asymmetric operations – Taking children to conduct jihad
• Expand lethal IED and high-profile attacks to deny – Punishment by maiming
ISAF freedom of movement – Forcing people to pay donations
• Emphasize increasing violence in RC North and RC – Searching homes
West
– Kidnapping people for money
• Demonstrate Taliban reach and perceived control of all
Afghanistan
• Make the main enemy the United States
VERALL TRENDS:
OLITICS:
Central Government
Ta xes
$
$ Budgetary $ Patronage
Allocations
Other
Governors Provincial
Government
COP
Officials
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
GIRoA Government O
OTA
N
$
$
Donor $
Dubai Ministry Ministry
Ministry USA
Ministry
Ministry
Ministry Ministry
Permission
$
Contractors $ Protection $ Punishment
Private
$ Governors Crony Sector
Narco $ $
Provincial
COP $
$
Lower
Officials
Insurgents
remaining
developmen
t ISAF & IC (enforcers)
$
to people
Insurgents
anger
NAT
Anti-Corruption Task Force O
OTA
N
MOD ISAF
MOI
JIOC-A
ACU Anti-Corruption IJC
Task Force
NDS ATFC
CJ2 lead
CSTC-A /
MCTF
NTM-A
HOO EUPOL
UN EMBASSIES
IOs
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
What This Means O
OTA
N
Events Density
No events
• Insurgency is loosely Low
organized but increasingly Medium
effective Significant
High
• Insurgent strength is
enabled by GIRoA weakness Kinetic Events 01 Jan 05 – 30 NOV 05
UNCLASSIFIED
Security Rollup NAT
O
OTA
N
950
900 Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations Presidential and Provincial
850 Bombs (IED and Mines), Exploded Council Elections
800 Bombs (IED and Mines), Found and Cleared 20 AUG 09
750 Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks
700 Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
650 Threat Assessment
600 • Attack trends are expected to continue with levels of security incidents projected to be higher in 2010
550 • Spike in attacks during Provincial elections not expected to be as high as National elections
500
Ramadan
450 18 OCT – 14 NOV 04 IJC Stand Up 12 NOV 2009
5 OCT – 4 NOV 05 Transfer of
400 Authority to ISAF
24 SEP – 23 OCT 06
350 13 SEP – 13 OCT 07 31 JUL 06
1 SEP – 28 SEP 08
300 22 AUG– 20 SEP 09
250
200
Parliamentary Elections
150 18 SEP 05
Presidential
100 Elections
50 OCT 04
0
Apr-06
Apr-09
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-08
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-04
Oct-04
Oct-05
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jul-05
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
IED Evolution In Afghanistan O
OTA
IEDs by Type
N
Timed IED
2007 – 2009
Hoax
Projected Events: 6440
VBIED
4169
(2008)
2718
(2007)
1922
831
(2005)
326 Kinetic Events 01 Jan 09 – 30 NOV 09
(2004)
IEDs by Type
Components
False
Hoax
Events: 2003 – 2006
Predominantly Military Ordnance
PBIED
Projected
SVBIED
81 Detonated
Discovered
Command IED
Timed IED Casualties: (04 -- 16), (05 – 279), (06 – 1473)
VBIED
VOIED
(2003) * No IED related casualty data available for 2003
RCIED
Unknown
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
Main Charge Size Trends O
OTA
N
51-75 lbs
26-50 lbs
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
Sustainment O
OTA
N
• Recruits:
− Retain the religious high-ground
− Able to recruit from frustrated population Over 18 tons of opiates destroyed during
recent operation, May 2009
− Exploit poverty, tribal friction, and lack
of governance
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
Insurgent Strengths and Weaknesses O
OTA
N
Strengths
• Organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically
expanding
• Strength and ability of shadow governance increasing
• IED use is increasing in numbers and complexity; as much a tactic and process as it is
a weapon
• Taliban represents an existential threat -- only they have sufficient organizational capability
and support to pose a threat to GIRoA’s viability (they are most coherent in the south)
• New strategy will incur risks -- not adopting the strategy has greater risk
Longer war
Greater casualties
Higher overall costs
Loss of political support
• Taliban strength is the perception that its victory is inevitable; reversing momentum
requires protecting the population and changing perceptions
• Under-resourcing significantly elevates risk, increases lag time, and is likely to cause failure
UNCLASSIFIED
NAT
O
OTA
N
Questions / Discussion
UNCLASSIFIED