Superbowl XLIV Pool Analysis

Gameday: February 7, 2010

South Florida

Questions: hiram@hellskitchen-ny.com
The Superbowl Numbers

 There have been 43 Superbowl games played since 1967…

…this year’s game is #44 if you forgot your Roman numerals (XLIV)

 This equates to…

– 172 quarters of football
– 172 pairs of scores
– 344 individual digits that have occurred

 No overtime periods have ever been played in a Superbowl game

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 Since most scoring occurs in increments of 3 or 7 – a key hypothesis would be
that 0, 3, 7 would be likely last digits at any point of a game…
Frequency of Groups of Digits

There is a very significant 100%

difference between the
five “have” numbers 16.6%
(0,3,4,6,7) and the five
“have nots” (1,2,5,8,9) –
83% to 17% 80%

18.9%

60%

Last year’s game had 100.0%

4 different 40%

combinations of 64.5%

0-3-7
20%

0%
0, 3, 7 4, 6 1, 2, 5, 8, 9 All

…historical Superbowl scores by quarter validate this theory

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 As far as individual digits from Superbowls go, “zero” is a hero in this game
Frequency of Last Digits

100 30.0%

90 27.3%

25.0%
80

70 20.9%
20.0%

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% of Occurences
# of Occurences

16.3%
50 15.0%

40
10.8%
10.0%
30
8.1%

20
4.7% 5.0%
4.4%
10 2.6% 2.6% 2.3%

0 0.0%
0 7 3 4 6 1 9 8 2 5
Digit

Count %

Note: Based on quarterly scores of all previous

Superbowl games (see appendix)

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 Looking at digit combinations, there are 36* pairs (of 100) that have NEVER
occurred as a quarter-ending score in a Superbowl

Note: * 36 pairs is composed of 18 Team 1

combinations and their converses
(i.e., I have made a fundamental assumption 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
that 7-9 and 9-7 have the same probability)
0 7.0% 1.7% 1.7% 9.9% 5.8% 2.3% 2.9% 11.6% 1.7% 2.9%

1 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6%

Although 4-6 would seem a good

2 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6%

combination, that pair occurred for

the FIRST time in the 2007 game. 3 9.9% 0.6% 0.0% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 4.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0%

Funny enough, the pair was good in

BOTH the first and second

Team 2
quarters, even though additional 4 5.8% 1.7% 0.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% 6.4% 0.0% 1.2%

scoring occurred in the second

quarter!
5 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%

6 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6%

7 11.6% 1.7% 1.7% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 2.9% 4.1% 0.0% 1.7%

Legend: 8 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%

= Never occurred in Superbowl

= Occurrence > 5% in Superbowl 9 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0%

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 These 100 pairs are actually 55 unique combinations of scores
(i.e., 9-5 and 5-9 would count as one pair), and of the 37 pairs that have occurred,
0-3-7 again dominate
Frequency of Score Pairs

25 14.0%

The 2009 game benefitted 12.0%

11.6%
only people who had a good 20
shot of winning from the
start, since the winning pairs 9.9% 10.0%
were:
0-3, 7-7, 0-7, and 3-7 7.6%
# of Occurences

15

% of Occurences
7.0% 8.0%
There was even a safety in
last year’s game but it is not
apparent from the end digits 5.8% 6.0%
10
4.1%

4.0%
3.5% 2.9%
5
2.3%
2.0%
1.7% 1.2%

0.6%
0.6%
0 0.0%
7-7
3-6
3-4
3-3
0-6
0-9
6-7
0-5
0-2
0-8
1-5
1-7

4-9
4-6
2-9
1-3
1-6
1-9
2-4
2-8
5-9
6-9
8-9
1-8
0-7
0-3
3-7
0-0
4-7
0-4

6-8
1-4
0-1
2-7
7-9
6-6
Score Pair

Occurences %

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At this point we are all trying to determine what combination of safeties, 2-point
conversions, and missed extra points will yield our pairs – here is some additional
data to help

 There have been 1,954 total points scored through last year’s Superbowl…

1,954
Total Points

233 212 108 6 4

Touchdowns Extra Points* Field Goals Safeties 2-Point Conv.
1,398 212 324 12 8
Points Points Points Points Points

 …items to note:
– Safeties and 2-point conversions are very rare – 1.02% of scoring
– Touchdowns are followed by the single extra point 91.0% of the time – the single extra point is NOT really
automatic because of misses and the newer 2 pt. conversion
– Field goals are not automatic either, with a 71.1% success ratio (thank you Scott Norwood)
– Touchdowns outpace field goals by a ratio of 2.2-to-1

* = “Extra Points” means the 1 pt. extra point kick, any 2 pt. conversions (attempted or made) would lower the maximum possible value of extra points

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The 2009 game had the first safety in 18 years; the first 2 pt. conversion occurred
13 years ago, and between them add a needed twist to pairs scoring
FG 2-pt Total
Game Year TD XP FG Attempt Safety 2-pt Attempt Points
I 1967 6 6 1 2 45
II 1968 5 5 4 5 47
III 1969 2 2 3 7 23
IV 1970 3 3 3 4 30
V 1971 3 2 3 4 29
VI 1972 3 3 2 3 27
VII 1973 3 3 2 21
VIII 1974 4 4 1 1 31
IX 1975 3 2 2 1 22
X 1976 4 3 3 5 1 38
XI 1977 6 4 2 3 46
XII 1978 4 4 3 6 37
XIII 1979 9 9 1 2 66
XIV 1980 6 5 3 3 50
XV 1981 4 4 3 5 37
XVI 1982 5 5 4 4 47
XVII 1983 5 5 3 3 44
XVIII 1984 6 5 2 3 47
XIX 1985 6 6 4 4 54
XX 1986 6 6 4 4 1 56
XXI 1987 7 6 3 5 1 59
XXII 1988 7 7 1 3 52
XXIII 1989 3 3 5 7 36
XXIV 1990 9 8 1 1 65
XXV 1991 4 4 3 4 1 39
XXVI 1992 7 7 4 4 61
XXVII 1993 9 9 2 2 69
XXVIII 1994 4 4 5 5 43
XXIX 1995 10 8 1 2 2 75
XXX 1996 5 5 3 3 44
XXXI 1997 7 6 2 2 1 56
XXXII 1998 7 7 2 2 55
XXXIII 1999 6 5 4 7 53
XXXIV 2000 4 3 4 7 39
XXXV 2001 5 5 2 3 41
XXXVI 2002 4 4 3 4 37
XXXVII 2003 9 6 3 3 69
XXXVIII 2004 8 5 2 4 1 61
XXXIX 2005 6 6 1 1 45
XL 2006 4 4 1 3 31
XLI 2007 5 4 4 5 46
XLII 2008 4 4 1 1 31
XLIII 2009 6 6 2 2 1 50

Number 233 212 108 152 6 4 TBD 1,954

Points 1,398 212 324 12 8 1,954
% of Scores 71.5% 10.8% 16.6% 0.6% 0.4% 100%
Success Rate 91.0% 71.1% TBD

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Since Superbowls only represent a very small portion of games (and scoring), it
would also help to use a full season of scores as a sample

 For the 2002-2003 regular season, there were 32 NFL teams that played 16 games each…
– 256 games played
– 1,024 regulation quarters played plus 25 games went into overtime, for a grand total of
1,049 quarters played

 In pool terms, this means…

– 1,049 pairs of scores
– 2,098 individual digits that occurred

 The post-season was not included in the analysis

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Single Digit Analysis revealed similar results to the Superbowls…

Frequency of Last Digits

700 30.0%

27.9%

600
25.0%

23.0%
# of Occurences (out of 2,098)

500
Rank order for digits is 20.0%

% of Occurences
same as Superbowl
400 except for swap
15.5% of 1 and 6 & 15.0%
5 and 2
300
12.3%

10.0%
200

6.5% 6.2%
5.0%
100
2.8% 2.7%
1.9%
1.2%
0 0.0%
0 7 3 4 1 6 9 8 5 2
Digit

Count %

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…as did the Combination Analysis, with 0-3-7 displaying an even stronger
tendency…

Frequency of Score Pairs

160
14.7%
14.0%
140

12.0%
120 Pairs with a
# of Occurences (out of 1,049)

probability of less
9.8% 10.0%
than 1% (9 or fewer

% of Occurences
100
8.9% occurrences in 1,049
pairs) are not shown 8.0%
80 on chart
6.5%
6.0% 6.0%
60 5.6%
4.7%
40 4.0%
3.6% 3.4%
3.0%
2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
20 2.0% 2.0%
1.6% 1.5%
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

0 0.0%
0-7

0-3

0-0

3-7

0-4

7-7

4-7

3-4

1-7

0-6

3-3

3-6

4-4

6-7

1-4

4-6

1-3

0-1

7-8

0-9

3-9

5-7

7-9
Score Pair

Occurences %

10
 …but the larger sample does prove that almost all pairs can really occur, albeit
infrequently, and there are only a handful of “automatic losers”

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 8.9% 1.5% 0.6% 9.8% 6.0% 0.8% 3.0% 14.7% 0.9% 1.0%

2-2, 2-8, and 8-2 1 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.8%

are very bad draws

to say the least! 2 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%

3 9.8% 1.6% 0.2% 2.4% 3.6% 0.5% 2.3% 6.5% 0.8% 1.0%

Note: Based on the 2002-2003 sample of over 1,000 pairs

4 6.0% 2.2% 0.4% 3.6% 2.3% 0.5% 2.0% 4.7% 0.6% 0.1%

5 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3%

6 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.7%

7 14.7% 3.4% 0.2% 6.5% 4.7% 1.0% 2.3% 5.6% 1.0% 1.0%

Legend:
= Never occurred in 2002-03 Season Game 8 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

= Occurred 1 time in 2002-03 Season Game

= Occurrence > 5% in 2002-03 9 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2%

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Good Luck!

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 Appendix -- Superbowl Data 1967-present

# Date Team 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Final # Date Team 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Final # Date Team 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Final

XLIII Feb. 1, 2009 Steelers 3 14 3 7 27 XXVIII Jan. 30, 1994 Dallas 6 0 14 10 30 XIV Jan. 20, 1980 Rams 7 6 6 0 19
Cardinals 0 7 0 16 23 Buffalo 3 10 0 0 13 Pittsburgh 3 7 7 14 31
XLII Feb. 3, 2008 Giants 3 0 0 14 17 XXVII Jan. 31, 1993 Buffalo 7 3 7 0 17 XIII Jan. 21, 1979 Pittsburgh 7 14 0 14 35
Patriots 0 7 0 7 14 Dallas 14 14 3 21 52 Dallas 7 7 3 14 31
XXVI Jan. 26, 1992 Washington 0 17 14 6 37 XII Jan. 15, 1978 Dallas 10 3 7 7 27
XLI Feb. 4, 2007 Indianapolis 6 10 6 7 29
Buffalo 0 0 10 14 24 Denver 0 0 10 0 10
Chicago 14 0 3 0 17
XXV Jan. 27, 1991 Buffalo 3 9 0 7 19 XI Jan. 9, 1977 Oakland 0 16 3 13 32
XL Feb. 5, 2006 Seattle 3 0 7 0 10
Giants 3 7 7 3 20 Minnesota 0 0 7 7 14
Pittsburgh 0 7 7 7 21 XXIV Jan. 28, 1990 San Francisco 13 14 14 14 55 X Jan. 18, 1976 Dallas 7 3 0 7 17
XXXIX Feb. 6, 2005 New England 0 7 7 10 24 Denver 3 0 7 0 10 Pittsburgh 7 0 0 14 21
Philadelphia 0 7 7 7 21 XXIII Jan. 22, 1989 Cincinnati 0 3 10 3 16 IX Jan. 12, 1975 Pittsburgh 0 2 7 7 16
XXXVIII Feb. 1, 2004 Carolina 0 10 0 19 29 San Francisco 3 0 3 14 20 Minnesota 0 0 0 6 6
New England 0 14 0 18 32 XXII Jan. 31, 1988 Washington 0 35 0 7 42 VIII Jan. 13, 1974 Minnesota 0 0 0 7 7
XXXVII Jan. 26, 2003 Oakland 3 0 6 12 21 Denver 10 0 0 0 10 Miami 14 3 7 0 24
Tampa Bay 3 17 14 14 48 XXI Jan. 25, 1987 Denver 10 0 0 10 20 VII Jan. 14, 1973 Miami 7 7 0 0 14
XXXVI Feb. 3, 2002 St. Louis 3 0 0 14 17 Giants 7 2 17 13 39 Washington 0 0 0 7 7
New England 0 14 3 3 20 XX Jan. 26, 1986 Chicago 13 10 21 2 46 VI Jan. 16, 1972 Dallas 3 7 7 7 24
XXXV Jan. 28, 2001 Baltimore 7 3 14 10 34 New England 3 0 0 7 10 Miami 0 3 0 0 3
NY Giants 0 0 7 0 7 XIX Jan. 20, 1985 Miami 10 6 0 0 16 V Jan. 17, 1971 Baltimore 0 6 0 10 16
XXXIV Jan. 30, 2000 St. Louis 3 6 7 7 23 San Francisco 7 21 10 0 38 Dallas 3 10 0 0 13
XVIII Jan. 22, 1984 Washington 0 3 6 0 9 IV Jan. 11, 1970 Minnesota 0 0 7 0 7
Tennessee 0 0 6 10 16
Raiders 7 14 14 3 38 KC 3 13 7 0 23
XXXIII Jan. 31, 1999 Denver 7 10 0 17 34
XVII Jan. 30, 1983 Miami 7 10 0 0 17 III Jan. 12, 1969 NY Jets 0 7 6 3 16
Atlanta 3 3 0 13 19
Washington 0 10 3 14 27 Baltimore 0 0 0 7 7
XXXII Jan. 25, 1998 Green Bay 7 7 3 7 24 XVI Jan. 24, 1982 San Francisco 7 13 0 6 26 II Jan. 14, 1968 Green Bay 3 13 10 7 33
Denver 7 10 7 7 31 Cincinnati 0 0 7 14 21 Oakland 0 7 0 7 14
XXXI Jan. 26, 1997 New England 14 0 7 0 21 XV Jan. 25, 1981 Oakland 14 0 10 3 27 I Jan. 15, 1967 KC 0 10 0 0 10
Green Bay 10 17 8 0 35 Philadelphia 0 3 0 7 10 Green Bay 7 7 14 7 35
XXX Jan. 28, 1996 Dallas 10 3 7 7 27
Pittsburgh 0 7 0 10 17
XXIX Jan. 29, 1995 San Diego 7 3 8 8 26
San Francisco 14 14 14 7 49

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All logos are property of the NFL and its member teams

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All logos are property of the NFL and its member teams

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All logos are property of the NFL and its member teams

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All logos are property of the NFL and its member teams

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