In my critique of Cook et al. (2013), I raised a number of issues (Tol, 2014). Cook et al. (2014) respond to a few only. They do not dispute
(1) that their sample is not representative,
(2) that data quality is low,
(3) that their validation test is not passed,
(4) that they mistake a trend in composition for a trend in endorsement,
(5) that the majority of the investigated papers that take a position on (anthropogenic) climate change in fact do not examine any evidence, and
(6) that there are inexplicable patterns in the data.
Original Title
Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Literature - Rejoinder
In my critique of Cook et al. (2013), I raised a number of issues (Tol, 2014). Cook et al. (2014) respond to a few only. They do not dispute
(1) that their sample is not representative,
(2) that data quality is low,
(3) that their validation test is not passed,
(4) that they mistake a trend in composition for a trend in endorsement,
(5) that the majority of the investigated papers that take a position on (anthropogenic) climate change in fact do not examine any evidence, and
(6) that there are inexplicable patterns in the data.
In my critique of Cook et al. (2013), I raised a number of issues (Tol, 2014). Cook et al. (2014) respond to a few only. They do not dispute
(1) that their sample is not representative,
(2) that data quality is low,
(3) that their validation test is not passed,
(4) that they mistake a trend in composition for a trend in endorsement,
(5) that the majority of the investigated papers that take a position on (anthropogenic) climate change in fact do not examine any evidence, and
(6) that there are inexplicable patterns in the data.
Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic
global warming in the literature: Rejoinder In my critique of Cook et al. (2013), I raised a number of issues (Tol, 2014). Cook et al. (2014) respond to a few only. They do not dispute (1) (2) (3) (4)
that their sample is not representative,
that data quality is low, that their validation test is not passed, that they mistake a trend in composition for a trend in endorsement, (5) that the majority of the investigated papers that take a position on (anthropogenic) climate change in fact do not examine any evidence, and (6) that there are inexplicable patterns in the data. Cook et al. (2014) take issue with my procedure for correcting erroneous data. Specically, I apply the marginal distribution of the data corrections applied by Cook et al. (2013). Cook et al. (2014) argue that I should have used the conditional distributions. The difference is stark: the dissensus rate rises from 2.0% to 8.6% when the marginal distribution is used, but falls to 1.9% when the conditional distributions are used. Cook's error correction procedure uses the same data twice; the erroneous data is used (1) as an anchor point for the corrected data and (2) to determine the extent of the correction. Besides, there are too few observations to reliably estimate the conditional distributions for the high and the low ratings. I therefore argue that my error correction procedure is superior. Fig. 2 in Cook et al. (2014) is misleading: it compares the consensus rate in the original data to the error-corrected consensus rate. In Tol (2014), I note that there is drift in measurement. Cook et al. (2014) counters that there is no drift in the parameter of interest, the consensus rate which excludes two-thirds of their observations. They do note, though, that the rolling consensus rate
DOI of original article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.045
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.003 0301-4215/& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
falls too often inside its bootstrapped condence interval. In other
words, the parameter of interest suffers from conrmation bias. I am disappointed that Cook et al. (2014) do not show a histogram of the rating times. That would put to rest the concerns that some of the ratings were done too quickly to be reliable. I am disappointed also that they do not test for inter-rater agreement. A simple table would sufce to prove Cook's contention that the raters were unbiased. I am disappointed further that data are still hidden, and that even the survey protocol is not available for inspection. In sum, Cook et al. (2014) do not take away my concerns with Cook et al. (2013). In fact, they add a hitherto overlooked aw: conrmation bias in the consensus rate. References Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D., Green, S.A., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., Way, R., Jacobs, P., Skuce, A., 2013. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientic literature. Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2), 024024. Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D., Green, S.A., Richardson, M., Winkler, B., Painting, R., Way, R., Jacobs, P., Skuce, A., 2014. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientic literature: a comment. Energy Policy, in press, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.003. Tol, R.S.J., 2014. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: a re-analysis. Energy Policy, in press, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. enpol.2014.04.045.
Richard S.J. Toln
Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer BN1 9SL, United Kingdom Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands CESifo, Munich, Germany E-mail address: r.tol@sussex.ac.uk
n Correspondence address: Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer BN1 9SL, United Kingdom.