Thursday, February 25, 2010

• Truck tonnage - The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire
Truck Tonnage Index jumped 3.1 percent in January, following a revised 1.3 percent increase in
December 2009. The latest gain boosted the SA index from 107 (2000=100) in December to 110.4 in
January, its highest level since September 2008.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that the latest (truck) tonnage reading, coupled with anecdotal
reports from carriers, indicates that both the industry and the economy are clearly in a recovery mode.
“While I don’t expect tonnage to continue growing as robustly as it did in January, the industry is finally
moving in the right direction. Although there are still risks that could throw the rebound off track, the
likelihood of that happening continues to diminish.”

• Health Care – Obama working on a plan B – if the president’s new plan (outlined this Mon) fails to
receive enough bipartisan support, the WH is working on a more modest proposal. His leading alternate
approach would provide health insurance to perhaps 15 million Americans, about half what the
comprehensive bill would cover. WSJ
• Health Care - Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius asked the heads of five major
health insurance companies on Wednesday to meet with her next month to explain why their premiums
are on the rise – AP• Health insurers defend recent rate increases – an industry exec told a
Congressional committee on Wednesday that higher premiums were justified by soaring medical costs,
and warned that pending legislation could make the problem worse – NYT
• Bernanke takeaways – from JPMorgan’s M Feroli - There was no major, or even minor, shift in the
monetary policy outlook in Bernanke's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. The Chairman
twice stated that the funds rate target is likely to remain exceptionally low for an extended period and
once stated that the policy outlook was about unchanged since the January FOMC meeting. Any concern
that the increase in the discount rate and the re-opening of the SFP signalled a shift in the Fed's outlook
should be allayed by today's testimony. Bernanke did say that the Fed "will at some point begin to
tighten monetary conditions." though this was taken almost verbatim from his testimony two weeks ago
and, like then, was simply used to motivate a lead-in to a discussion of exit strategies. Not only was the
discussion of the policy outlook dovish, but the description of the economy tilted toward emphasizing
the ills associated with weak levels of economic activity.