Trend Letter:

A report on the forces transforming the economy, business, technology, society and the world

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Trend Letter

Editor: What aresome of the obstacles to futuristicthinking?Eric Garland:

The problem isnot that people are lacking informa-tion.We all wake up each day with a6,000-pound meatball of informa-tion in front of us. Most people turnto the media to try to make sense of things. However, with a 24/7 newscycle, many news outlets simply aretryingtokeepviewers’a t te n t ion until the next advertisement. So theyuse sex, death and calamity storiesor random stories about fads that areoflittleutilitytosomeonewhowants to invest or make a significant business decision.

TL:

Is there a simple and reli-able way to determine when atrend is more than a passing fad?G a r l a n d :

Thedifferenceisnumbersandbasicanalysis.Noteveryone is going to be a strategicintelligence analyst, but most peoplecan learn how to do basic analysis of socialtrends,demographicsandtechnology trends and then come totheir own conclusions. Most massmedia outlets are not helping the big and important. The Internet is big; ball bearings are important.” Ishould amend that to: The iPhone is big; ball bearings are still important.We can live without the iPhone, butwe can’t live without certain indus-trial equipment.

TL:

Please give us an exampleof a current trend, and tell us howyou are tracking it for futureimplications.Garland:

Much of what I do isto get to the root of the issue andlook at the unsexy stuff that formsthe basis of economics—the type of information that is not reportable bymost media. For example, we arelooking at a report on the future of urbanization.Asofthreemonthsago, the majority of people live incities for the first time in 20,000years.So what are the implications of that?Therewillbedemandfor sewage systems, water infrastructureand transportation. We are going to be living on top of each other, sosoundproofing may be an increasingneed. Although there is a lot of talk about iPhones and the Prius, thereare huge movements right now inco p per,rebar,concrete,steeland iron.Thedemandformetalhas become so intense in part because of the huge growth in building Chinesecities. In fact, people are stealing

Eric Garland is the author of

Future Inc.,

published by AMACOM. He isa professional futurist and has provided insight in areas such as agriculture,energy, nanotechnology, health care and information technology. His clientsinclude General Motors, Coca-Cola, Nestlé, Siemens, Eli Lilly and several government agencies.

Look beyond the iPod

O v e rcome media hype to discover the real trends that influence business

businessinvestor.Forexample,inthechapterinmybookcalled“Analyzing Trends: Real Change vs.Media Hype,” I point out that the hottrend in the summer of 2001 was thethreatofsharkattacks.Everyfewdays there was a story about a shark attack.Theimmediateconclusionwould be that shark attacks are esca-lating, except for one problem: Shark attacks were down that year and for thethirdyearinarow.However,reporting of shark attacks was up.In 1995, Peter Drucker said: “Donot confuse the difference between

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Spotlight Interview With Eric Garland

“We allwake up eachday with a6,000-poundmeatball ofinformation infront of us.”