14 April 2008 Trend Letter: A report on the forces transforming the economy, business, technology, society and the

gy, society and the world

Spotlight Interview With Eric Garland

Look beyond the iPod

Overcome media hype to discover the real trends that
influence business

Eric Garland is the author of Future Inc., published by AMACOM. He is
a professional futurist and has provided insight in areas such as agriculture,
energy, nanotechnology, health care and information technology. His clients
include General Motors, Coca-Cola, Nestlé, Siemens, Eli Lilly and several
government agencies.
Trend Letter Editor: What are
some of the obstacles to futuristic
thinking?
Eric Garland: The problem is
not that people are lacking informa-
tion. We all wake up each day with a
6,000-pound meatball of informa-
tion in front of us. Most people turn
to the media to try to make sense of
things. However, with a 24/7 news
cycle, many news outlets simply are
trying to keep viewers’ attention
until the next advertisement. So they
use sex, death and calamity stories
or random stories about fads that are
of little utility to someone who
wants to invest or make a significant
business decision.
TL: Is there a simple and reli-
able way to determine when a
trend is more than a passing fad?
Garland: The difference is
numbers and basic analysis. Not
everyone is going to be a strategic
intelligence analyst, but most people
can learn how to do basic analysis of
social trends, demographics and
technology trends and then come to
their own conclusions. Most mass
media outlets are not helping the
“We all
wake up each
day with a
6,000-pound
meatball of
information in
front of us.”
business investor. For example, in
the chapter in my book called
“Analyzing Trends: Real Change vs.
Media Hype,” I point out that the hot
trend in the summer of 2001 was the
threat of shark attacks. Every few
days there was a story about a shark
attack. The immediate conclusion
would be that shark attacks are esca-
lating, except for one problem: Shark
attacks were down that year and for
the third year in a row. However,
reporting of shark attacks was up.
In 1995, Peter Drucker said: “Do
not confuse the difference between
big and important. The Internet is
big; ball bearings are important.” I
should amend that to: The iPhone is
big; ball bearings are still important.
We can live without the iPhone, but
we can’t live without certain indus-
trial equipment.
TL: Please give us an example
of a current trend, and tell us how
you are tracking it for future
implications.
Garland: Much of what I do is
to get to the root of the issue and
look at the unsexy stuff that forms
the basis of economics—the type of
information that is not reportable by
most media. For example, we are
looking at a report on the future of
urbanization. As of three months
ago, the majority of people live in
cities for the first time in 20,000
years.
So what are the implications of
that? There will be demand for
sewage systems, water infrastructure
and transportation. We are going to
be living on top of each other, so
soundproofing may be an increasing
need. Although there is a lot of talk
about iPhones and the Prius, there
are huge movements right now in
copper, rebar, concrete, steel and
iron. The demand for metal has
become so intense in part because of
the huge growth in building Chinese
cities. In fact, people are stealing
Continued on Page 15

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Trend Letter: A report on the forces transforming the economy, business, technology, society and the world
iPod (continued from Page 14)
manhole covers and breaking into
old buildings to rip out copper
wiring to sell them for scrap metal.
TL: How does someone begin
the process of predicting future
trends?
Garland: The first steps are to
organize your thinking and to under-
stand the system you play in. When
you look for trends, there is a lot of
information on any single topic. For
example, if you sign up for Google
News updates, you are likely to
receive many messages each day.
Although this type of service is free,
consider whether you can realistically
sift through and interpret a deluge of
information.
Large organizations have people
whose jobs are to track trends.
However, for small businesses that
cannot hire a futurist or pay someone
full time to track trends, I suggest set-
ting aside five or 10 minutes a week to
do trend research. It is about changing
the way you think of things and
changing your culture. You are always
going to be trying to hit a moving target.
A director of business intelligence
recently told me that there is no such
thing as right intelligence and good
decisions anymore. Instead, you must
track a moving marketplace with vig-
ilance. A meeting once a year to dis-
cuss trends and changes won’t cut it
anymore.
Start a blog or a wiki and share
information with others in your
industry, but, most important, con-
sider the meaning of the information
collected. Whittle it down to a few
scenarios and consider what your
competitors will do with the same
information. That analysis should
lead to a few decisions.
TL: Although you mention
many important future trends in
2807 N. Parham Road • Suite 200 • Richmond, VA 23294 • (800)791-8699 or (570)567-1982 • Fax: (212)918-1568 • www.briefings.com
your book, please discuss one and
its impact on U.S. businesses and
the economy.
Garland: One that comes to
mind is the upcoming talent crisis.
As the baby boomers prepare for
retirement, America is poised to lose
many experts in a wide variety of
industries. For example, Lockheed
will lose two-thirds of its engineers
in the next six years. The lack of
experienced workers could be so
damaging to organizations that I
suggest investors determine whether
every business that they own stock in
has a succession plan. The businesses
that are planning for a shortage of
workers are the ones to invest in.
TL: Is it easier for small organ-
izations to react to future trends
than it is for large organizations?
The STEEP method of futuristic thinking
Futurists use the STEEP method to explore possible impact areas for a
certain topic, product or trend. STEEP stands for trends in Society, Technology,
Ecology, Economics and Politics.
Society
• Demography
• Family life
• Public health
• Religion
Technology
• Biotechnology
• Chemistry and materials science
• Information technology
• Manufacturing
• Nanotechnology
Ecology
• Global warming
• Supplies of clean water
• Topsoil and agricultural systems
• Air quality
Source:Future Inc., Eric Garland, AMACOM, www.amacombooks.org.
April 2008 15
Garland: Dinosaurs don’t do well
in terms of evolution. A good example
is the pharmaceutical industry. In
the late 1990s and early 2000s, drug
manufacturers were acquiring other
pharmaceutical businesses with the
goal of developing huge research and
development operations that would
crank out new products. It didn’t hap-
pen. The organizations underperformed.
In the end, the industry’s innovation
came from small shops in niche markets.
Innovation usually comes from
the margins. Many people think huge
organizations have the upper hand in
creating new technologies, but large
outfits generally buy innovation
from small ones. An organization
can have deep pockets, but in gen-
eral, a bureaucratic structure works
against it.
Economics
• Globalization of commerce and
labor
• Poverty and the rich/poor gap
• Inflation
• Currency fluctuations
Politics
• International governing bodies
• Wars and regional conflicts
• Government regulations and
agency oversight
• Legislative trends, new bills
• Lawsuits and litigiousness