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m13 Uncertainty

m13 Uncertainty

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Published by chakravarthyashok

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Published by: chakravarthyashok on Apr 21, 2010
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04/21/2010

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Uncertainty
Chapter 13
 
Ou
tline
UncertaintyProbabilitySyntax and SemanticsInferenceIndependence and Bayes' R
u
le
 
Uncertainty
Let action
 A
= leave for airport
t
min
u
tes before flightWill
 A
get me there on time?Problems:
1.partial observability (road state, other drivers' plans, etc.)2.2.noisy sensors (traffic reports)3.3.
u
ncertainty in action o
u
tcomes (flat tire, etc.)4.4.immense complexity of modeling and predicting traffic5.
Hence a p
u
rely logical approach either 
1.risks falsehood: ³
 A
25 
will get me there on time´, or 2.leads to concl
u
sions that are too weak for decision making:
³
 A
25 
will get me there on time if there's no accident on the bridge and it doesn't rain andmy tires remain intact etc etc.´ 

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