MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

SECOND QUARTER 2001

 THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 28 68 3 1 25 24

CONSTRUCTION 35 54 7 4 28 18

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 30 53 12 5 18 14

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 26 60 8 6 18 17

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 24 64 7 5 17 16

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 28 57 10 5 18 17

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 23 64 7 6 16 15

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 20 72 5 3 15 18

SERVICES 30 59 5 6 25 21

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 26 67 3 4 23 18

ALL INDUSTRIES 28 59 8 5 20 18

UNITED STATES
LONG-AWAITED HIRING
SLOWDOWN LIES AHEAD
After more than three years of THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1986-2001
remarkably consistent demand
for new workers, results indi- MINING CONSTRUCTION
50 50
cate the long-awaited decline 40 40

in new hiring activity among 30 30

20
20

employers throughout the 10 10

0
nation appears ahead in the 0

-10 -10

second quarter. The present -20 -20

-30 -30
outlook is below like periods 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

of the past three years and

MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
extends beyond seasonal 50 50

expectations. All industries and 40 40

30 30

regions shared in the decline, 20 20

10
but Durable Goods Manufac- 0
10

turing and Wholesale & Retail -10 -10

-20 -20
Trades were hardest hit. Less -30 -30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
deterioration is apparent in the
fields of Education and Public TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
Administration where budgets 50 50
40 40
are usually quite firm and profit 30 30

production is not a requirement 20 20

10 10

as is the case in the private 0 0

sector. While the retraction -10 -10

-20 -20

is clear, it represents only -30

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
-30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

the emersion of a trend. The

erosion of activity is occurring FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
50 50
from very high historical levels 40 40

and substantial staffing remains 30 30

20 20

to be done. 10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

50 50
40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
 THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
After a buoyant year 2000 that continued
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted at the start of 2001, companies of the
MINING 20 80 0 0 20 25 Northeast now indicate a sluggish out-
look. Survey results foretell that the bold
CONSTRUCTION 30 58 8 4 22 17
increase normally found in the springtime
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 26 57 11 6 15 12 season will not materialize this year as
net hiring strength merely matches that
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 24 61 8 7 16 14
of three months ago. Only Construction
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 17 65 12 6 5 3 and Public Administration surpass
expectations of the year-ago quarter.
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 27 55 11 7 16 16
Education employers, following very
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 26 58 7 9 19 17 strong demand in the past two quarters,
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 17 73 5 5 12 13 remain at the level of last year. The
Services field alone appears optimistic,
SERVICES 29 59 5 7 24 19
although its total benefits from seasonal
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 74 3 4 16 14 increases. Government units will add staff
at a slight increase from the levels of the
ALL INDUSTRIES 25 61 8 6 17 14
past year and one-half. Among Durable
Goods Manufacturers, the current net
CONNECTICUT
MAINE hiring strength is below that of the first
MASSACHUSETTS quarter for the first time in the survey’s
NEW HAMPSHIRE 25-year history.
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
 THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
The second quarter is always highlighted
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted by substantial hiring activity in the
MINING 29 71 0 0 29 26 Construction industry and this year is
no exception. Typical of the present
CONSTRUCTION 43 50 6 1 37 14
Midwest situation, however, fewer of
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 29 54 13 4 16 11 these firms will require more workers
than in any like quarter in the past eight
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 28 59 9 4 19 19
years. Plans among Durable Goods
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 27 64 5 4 22 20 Manufacturers are sharply reduced from
the year-earlier period. Only Transpor-
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 28 59 10 3 18 14
tation & Public Utilities and Public
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 23 66 8 3 15 15 Administration report intentions for staff
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 17 74 8 1 9 14 additions at a slightly greater pace than
one year ago. Transportation & Public
SERVICES 31 59 6 4 25 22
Utilities firms, often aggressive at this
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 32 63 4 1 28 18 season, continue to maintain the opti-
mism of the past three years. Among
ALL INDUSTRIES 29 59 9 3 20 16
Services employers, some slippage is
ILLINOIS evident, but a serious need for people
INDIANA still exists only marginally below recent
IOWA deseasonalized levels. Job opportunities
KANSAS
MICHIGAN in the Education field, rarely great at this
MINNESOTA season, will approximate those of second
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA quarters of the past four years.
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
 THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Deterioration of the regional total in the
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted South is less pronounced than in
MINING 33 63 4 0 29 27 other areas, but no individual industry
surpasses the second quarter of last
CONSTRUCTION 31 57 6 6 25 18
year. Sectors normally active at this
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 31 55 9 5 22 18 season are now more reserved. Services
firms are the most optimistic, moving the
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 23 65 7 5 16 14
Construction industry from its customary
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 23 67 5 5 18 17 springtime leadership position for only
the second time in nine years. Prospects
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 30 58 8 4 22 22
in Durable Goods Manufacturing have not
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 20 70 5 5 15 14 been lower since 1993. Transportation &
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 16 76 5 3 11 14 Public Utilities companies continue at the
level of a year ago. Erosion of activity
SERVICES 31 59 5 5 26 22
from the 2000 period is slightest among
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 23 69 4 4 19 17 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate compa-
nies and Services firms. Removing the
ALL INDUSTRIES 27 62 6 5 21 19
variation due to seasonal trends, the
ALABAMA MARYLAND South three months ago expressed its
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI strongest hiring intentions of any quarter
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA since 1978. But the momentum that
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA slowly built over the previous five years
FLORIDA TENNESSEE to the peak of last quarter has diminished
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA to a level not seen since mid-1997.
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA
 THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
The nation’s leading region during six
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted consecutive quarters lost its leadership
MINING 8 84 0 8 8 10 position three months ago and now
regains a portion of the top position
CONSTRUCTION 36 50 8 6 28 24
albeit at a level reduced by a greater
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 34 46 12 8 22 19 amount than the other areas. Plans in
Construction, Education and Public
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 31 51 10 8 21 20
Administration surpass by a considerable
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 29 52 11 8 18 20 margin those of other industries. The
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 28 51 13 8 15 16
position of the latter two are more
aggressive than their counterparts in
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 27 59 7 7 20 18 other parts of the country. Wholesale &
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 33 59 1 7 32 31 Retail Trades, after nearly five unbroken
years of sharply elevated recruiting
SERVICES 30 51 8 11 22 20
activity, now faces a hiring slowdown
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 33 58 2 7 31 27 not seen since mid-1996. Expectations
among Non-Durable Goods Manu-
ALL INDUSTRIES 30 53 9 8 21 19
facturers remain close to those of the
past two quarters, while Durable Goods
ALASKA
ARIZONA firms anticipate less energetic recruiting
CALIFORNIA than in any quarter of the past two years.
COLORADO
HAWAII
IDAHO
MONTANA
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO
OREGON
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
WORLD HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
25 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 488
U.S. markets.
The second quarter 2001 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.