Professional Documents
Culture Documents
-Sreenivasa M. Gangadhara
Ajay Simha
Archana V. Kumar
(Honewell Technology Solutions Lab)
.
1 File Number
Demystifying High Maturity
Implementation Using Statistical
Tools & Techniques
1st International Colloquium on
High Maturity Best Practices 2010
21st May, 2010
Introduction
3 File Number
Key Takeaways…
At the end of this presentation, we will see one of the ways of…
• Assessing the confidence of project in meeting the project’s multiple goals
• Identifying the Critical Sub-Process with Quantitative justification
• Setting Quantitative project improvement goal
• Defining Sub-Process level Model and arriving at Critical & Controllable factors
• Arriving at “Probabilistic” Model from a “Deterministic” Model
• Doing “What-if” analysis for a proposed process improvement
• Demonstrating whether the proposed solution will meet the project’s objective
(end process result), before deploying the solution
• Demonstrating the usage of models at different stages of the project lifecycle
• Demonstrating that the improved process is statistically significant
4 File Number
Multi Goal Simulation Model
5 File Number
Problem Statement
Prediction:
• 94.45% certain project will complete in 140 person months
• 98.71% certain project will complete with 5% more effort
• 82.83% certain project will complete with 5% less effort
• Project can deliver the product with a Quality Goal of 0.1
Defects / Req with a certainty of 78.51%
8 File Number
Model Representation
Effort Component Defect Component
+ +
Design Defect Injection Rate
-
+
Design Review Defect Removal Efficiency Defect Detection Rate
(DRE)
+ =
Design Rework
Defect Leakage Rate
+ +
Input Assumptions
Historical Performance Baseline Measures:
• Effort / Req for each of the Development, Review, Test execution phases
Calculations
• Defect Injection Rate for each of development phases
• Defect Removal Efficiency (DRE) Rate for each of Review & Test phases
Detected Detected
• Defect Fix Rate of defects for each of the phases DRE = -------------------- = -----------------------
Total Present (Injected + Leaked)
9 File Number
Control Factors…
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Historical Project Data Set
Defects Detected – Phase-wise
Design
Req Review Code Review Post Release
Module / Feature # of Req Review DIT Defects SIT Defects
Defects Defects Defects
Defects
Exception Service 22 18 9 22 17 42 4
External Interface 21 12 10 18 13 48 1
DL Scheduler 28 25 11 24 19 70 1
Alert registry module 24 8 5 22 19 43 2
Rendering 19 15 5 17 10 30 1
GGF 29 6 7 23 22 58 3
Launchpad 17 6 3 15 8 28 1
CCD 27 9 2 28 14 41 1
Semaphore Service 23 10 4 23 18 52 1
FSS 19 7 1 19 14 38 2
File System Service 13 11 3 15 6 33 0
ECLF 15 14 5 14 9 30 1
Socket Library 24 5 8 22 20 60 1
Installation 18 8 3 18 14 41 1
GPC 21 9 3 18 11 35 2
MTL 24 12 8 19 14 48 1
Alert response module 16 8 2 15 13 32 0
Notification Service 22 14 5 22 11 55 1
Blackberry Thick Client 13 6 8 13 10 22 1
Power Backup service 29 12 5 25 20 52 2
Share Point Client 12 15 8 12 9 18 1
Process Service 23 26 10 18 15 31 1
Platform Resource Service 13 11 6 13 6 17 1
Power on/off 20 8 2 16 15 32 0
Thread Service 27 7 11 25 12 36 1
License Management 27 14 5 25 14 41 1
Periodic IPC Service 15 7 4 15 8 27 2
PDD 13 9 3 11 7 21 1
CALF 23 13 10 20 12 37 2
Alert System 26 4 2 24 13 35 3
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Process Representation
Y (PR DD)
Y1 (Req DD) Y2 (Des DD) Y3 (Code DD) Y4 (DIT DD) Y5 (SIT DD) Y6 (PR DD)
Requirement
Design Phase Code Phase DIT Phase SIT Phase Release Phase
Phase
Which sub-process
needs attention?
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Investigating Defect Removal Activities
Descriptive Statistics: Defect Detection Density
15 File Number
Investigating Defect Removal Activities
Control Chart: Defect Detection Density
I Chart of DD by Phase
Req Design Code DIT SIT Post Release
3.0
2.5
2.0
Individual Value
1.5
1
1.0
0.5
1
_
UCL=0.177
0.0 X=0.064
LCL=-0.049
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
Req DD Design DD Code DD DIT DD SIT DD Post Release DD
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Investigating Defect Removal Activities
Trend Chart: Defect Detection Density
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
Req DD Design DD Code DD DIT DD SIT DD Post Release DD
18 File Number
Investigating Defect Source
Identifying the Defect Injection phase & classifying them accordingly…
Req Review Defects Design Review Defects Code Review Defects DIT Defects SIT Defects Post Release Defects
Design Req Design Code Req Design Code Req Design Code Req Design Code
Module / Feature # of Req Req Defects Req Defects
Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects Defects
Exception Service 22 18 2 7 3 2 17 7 6 4 22 15 5 1 0 3
External Interface 21 12 1 9 2 3 13 6 5 2 24 12 12 1 0 0
DL Scheduler 28 25 2 9 2 4 18 9 7 3 34 20 16 0 1 0
Alert registry module 24 8 0 5 1 3 18 9 7 3 20 7 16 1 0 1
Rendering 19 15 1 4 0 3 14 5 4 1 12 8 10 0 0 1
GGF 29 6 1 6 3 2 18 9 7 6 32 12 14 1 0 2
Launchpad 17 6 0 3 0 2 13 4 2 2 13 7 8 1 0 0
CCD 27 9 0 2 3 3 22 7 5 2 11 9 21 0 0 1
Semaphore Service 23 10 1 3 2 4 17 7 9 2 27 6 19 0 1 0
FSS 19 7 1 0 1 4 14 7 4 3 13 11 14 1 0 1
File System Service 13 11 0 3 1 1 13 3 1 2 15 8 10 0 0 0
ECLF 15 14 2 3 2 3 9 5 2 2 17 4 9 0 0 1
Socket Library 24 5 2 6 1 3 18 11 4 5 29 9 22 0 1 0
Installation 18 8 0 3 2 3 13 6 4 4 18 8 15 1 0 0
GPC 21 9 1 2 3 0 15 6 4 1 16 11 8 0 1 1
MTL 24 12 1 7 2 2 15 7 4 3 20 3 25 0 1 0
Alert response module 16 8 1 1 1 1 13 6 5 2 12 5 15 0 0 0
Notification Service 22 14 0 5 5 2 15 4 4 3 15 17 23 1 0 0
Blackberry Thick Client 13 6 1 7 1 1 11 4 4 2 10 2 10 1 0 0
Power Backup service 29 12 0 5 2 5 18 9 6 5 15 11 26 1 1 0
Share Point Client 12 15 2 6 5 1 6 4 4 1 8 4 6 0 0 1
Process Service 23 26 3 7 1 3 14 5 3 7 16 4 11 0 0 1
Platform Resource Service 13 11 0 6 3 1 9 3 1 2 7 3 7 1 0 0
Power on/off 20 8 0 2 2 2 12 5 6 4 12 2 18 0 0 0
Thread Service 27 7 1 10 1 2 22 6 5 1 15 9 12 1 0 0
License Management 27 14 0 5 2 2 21 6 5 3 14 9 18 0 0 1
Periodic IPC Service 15 7 0 4 1 1 13 2 4 2 9 7 11 0 1 1
PDD 13 9 1 2 2 5 4 3 3 1 11 3 7 0 0 1
CALF 23 13 1 9 1 2 17 4 4 4 14 11 12 1 0 1
Alert System 26 4 0 2 0 3 21 6 3 4 20 6 9 1 1 1
19 File Number
Investigating Defect Source
Defect Injection Density:
Phase wise defects Phase wise Defects Density
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Investigating Defect Source
Trend Chart: Defect Injection Density
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
Req DD Design DD Code DD
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Investigating Defect Removal Activities
Trend Chart: Defect Detection Density
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
Req DD Design DD Code DD DIT DD SIT DD Post Release DD
22 File Number
Comparing Detection with Injection
Trend Chart: Comparing Defect Density of Detection with Injection
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
Req DD Design DD Code DD DIT DD SIT DD Post Release DD
Improvement Opportunity
23 File Number
Sub-Process Identification
Comparing Detection with Injection Defect Density:
Requirement
Design Phase Coding Phase
Phase
Min 0.154 0.053 0.783
Defect Detection
Max 1.250 0.667 1.154
Density
Mean 0.559 0.280 0.925
Min 1.111 0.577 1.000
Defect Injection
Max 2.833 1.464 1.923
Density
Mean 1.806 0.966 1.533
Mean Difference 1.247 0.686 0.608
Requirement Phase
needs an attention
Requirement Phase is the Critical Sub-Process
24 File Number
Sub-Process Identification
Statistical Justification: Test of Hypothesis H0: μ1 = μ2
H1: μ1 ≠ μ2
Variance DD between Injection
to Detection
If P ≤ 0.05, Reject H0
Module / Feature Req Design Code
If P > 0.05, Accept H0
Exception Service 1.591 0.955 0.318
External Interface 1.619 0.905 0.429
DL Scheduler 1.679 1.071 0.464
Alert registry module 1.292 0.708 0.667
Rendering 0.947 0.737 0.474
GGF 1.586 0.690 0.586
Launchpad 1.059 0.647 0.471
CCD 0.778 0.630 0.667
Semaphore Service 1.609 0.826 0.652
FSS 1.211 0.947 0.684
File System Service 1.462 0.769 0.769
ECLF 1.733 0.467 0.467
Socket Library 1.792 0.625 0.958
Installation 1.500 0.833 0.778
GPC 1.238 0.714 0.333
MTL 1.250 0.375 1.000
Alert response module 1.250 0.625 0.938
Notification Service 1.136 1.045 0.864
Req phase DD is different
Blackberry Thick Client 1.308 0.462 0.769
Power Backup service 0.931 0.793 0.828
from Design & Code
Share Point Client 1.583 0.583 0.167
Process Service 1.087 0.304 0.652
Platform Resource Service 1.077 0.385 0.385
Statistically proven that
Power on/off 0.950 0.500 0.900
Thread Service 0.889 0.556 0.370
Req phase need an
License Management 0.815 0.593 0.667
attention…!!!
Periodic IPC Service 0.800 0.867 0.800
PDD 1.308 0.769 0.154
CALF 0.913 0.696 0.609
Alert System 1.038 0.500 0.423
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Process Improvement
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Improvement Alternatives
Mean StDev N
1.2 0.5586 0.2732 30
1.806 0.4581 30
1.0
Density
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8
Data
Histogram of Req Detection DD, Req Injection DD, 40% Imp Detectio
Normal
1.6 Variable
Req Detection DD
1.4 Req Injection DD
40% Imp Detection Req DD
1.2 Mean StDev N
0.5586 0.2732 30
1.0 1.806 0.4581 30
0.7820 0.3825 30
Density
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8
Data
Note: Project team has to document the rationale for selecting 40% improvement
30 File Number
Sub-Process Analysis
SW Development Process
Requirement Phase Design Phase Code Phase
Develop Review Rework Develop Review Rework Develop Review Rework Next Process Steps
Change
Req Planning Req Capture Req Analyze Docum ent Review Rew ork Baseline
Managem ent
Develop Review Rework Develop Review Rework Develop Review Rework Next Process Steps
Sub-Process Identification
Change
Req Planning Req Capture Req Analyze Docum ent Review Rew ork Baseline
Managem ent
Req Defect Density = f (Author’s domain Expt, Dev Effort/Req, Reviewers Domain
Expt, Rev Effort/Req, Req Volatility)
32 File Number
Metrics Definition of selected input factors
Metrics Data
x Parameter Name Unit Definition / Guidelines
Type Type
Years of experience in the same or similar domain of
x1 = Author's Domain Expertise Objective Continuous Years
the author
Time spent by author on developing the requirements of
x3 = Development Effort / Req Objective Continuous Hrs / Req
the feature or module
Average Years of experience in the same or similar
x8 = Reviewer's Domain Expertise Objective Continuous Years
domain of the reviewers
Time spent by entire team in reviewing the requirement
x9 = Review Effort / Req Objective Continuous Hrs / Req
document
(# of Req [# of times] changed ) / (Total # of Req in the
x10 = Req Volatility Objective Continuous Ratio
feature or module)
33 File Number
Input Parameter Data
x1 x3 x8 x9 x10
Authors Domain Reviewer Domain
Module / Feature Dev Effort / Req Rev Effort / Req Req Volatility
Experience Experience
Exception Service 2.00 1.14 1.50 0.90 0.27
External Interface 3.00 1.20 1.75 0.69 0.10
DL Scheduler 2.25 0.43 3.50 1.25 0.29
Alert registry module 5.00 1.46 1.00 0.37 0.25
Rendering 6.00 0.63 2.25 0.95 0.21
GGF 2.00 2.10 0.50 0.21 0.14
Launchpad 3.50 2.12 1.00 0.49 0.18
CCD 5.00 1.40 0.75 0.47 0.22
Semaphore Service 6.00 1.20 1.50 0.48 0.09
FSS 4.50 1.20 1.50 0.44 0.05
File System Service 1.75 0.92 2.50 1.10 0.23
ECLF 3.50 0.60 3.00 0.93 0.33
Socket Library 2.00 2.33 0.75 0.23 0.04
Installation 7.50 1.40 1.00 0.62 0.28
GPC 5.75 1.60 1.75 0.43 0.10
MTL 6.00 1.00 2.00 0.50 0.08
Alert response module 5.00 1.56 1.00 0.70 0.13
Notification Service 2.25 0.95 2.50 0.70 0.27
Blackberry Thick Client 3.50 1.69 0.50 0.69 0.15
Power Backup service 8.00 1.24 0.75 0.50 0.17
Share Point Client 5.00 0.17 3.75 1.75 0.33
Process Service 6.00 0.26 3.50 1.36 0.39
Platform Resource Service 2.50 0.85 2.50 1.10 0.31
Power on/off 8.25 1.40 1.50 0.60 0.05
Thread Service 1.00 1.60 1.00 0.39 0.22
License Management 4.00 1.00 1.50 0.67 0.19
Periodic IPC Service 3.50 1.53 2.00 0.47 0.20
PDD 5.00 1.15 2.00 0.97 0.23
CALF 6.00 1.20 2.25 0.73 0.22
Alert System 2.00 2.31 0.50 0.22 0.08
34 File Number
Sub-Process Analysis
Req Defect Density: Output Measure – Req Defect Density (Y1)
I Chart of Req DD
1
1.25 UCL=1.235
1.00
Individual Value
0.75
_
X=0.559
0.50
0.25
0.00
LCL=-0.118
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Observation
35 File Number
Sub-Process Analysis
Output Measure (Y1) Comparison with Input Measures (x’s)
1.0
0.5
Req DD
0.0
0 4 8 0 1 2 1 2 3
Rev Effort / Req Req Volatility
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.4
Inference:
• Reviewer’s Domain Experience, Review Effort / Req and Req Volatility has positive correlation
• Dev Effort / Req has a negative correlation
• Author's Domain Experience has no correlation
37 File Number
Model Building
Regression Analysis
P ≤ 0.05
38 File Number
Model Building
Regression Analysis – Reduced Model
Note:
Though Dev Effort / Req & Req Volatility
are not statistically significant, they are
considered in the reduced model
Req Defect Density = 0.153 - 0.0618 Dev Effort / Req + 0.0608 Reviewers Domain
Experience + 0.48 Review Effort / Req + 0.23 Req Volatility
39 File Number
Statistical V/s Practical
Project objective is to “Uncover” more defects in the Requirement phase
Req Defect Density = 0.153
- 0.0618 Dev Effort / Req
+ 0.0608 Reviewers Domain Experience
+ 0.48 Review Effort / Req
+ 0.23 Req Volatility
To have more defect density in the Requirement phase, the Dev Effort / Req should
be low, Reviewers Domain Experience should be high, Review Effort should be high,
Req Volatility should be high (either few or all).
It practically does not make sense that, to have more Req DD the Req Volatility
should be high or spend less time in development activities. If we do so, then it
means we are intentionally introducing more defects, rather taking any proactive /
systemic measures to uncover more defects in Req phase.
Reviewers Domain Experience & Review Effort / Requirement are the factors which
could help in uncover more defects.
It means that, though “Dev Effort / Req, Reviewers Domain Experience, Review
Effort / Req & Req Volatility” are Critical Parameters, “Reviewers Domain
Experience, Review Effort / Req” are Control Parameter
40 File Number
How to use the model…?
41 File Number
Probabilistic Model from Deterministic Model
42 File Number
Probabilistic Model by Simulation
Use Crystal Ball tool to arrive at Simulation model
Define the simulation model in Crystal Ball tool for the “Regression
equation” by fitting the distribution for the input parameters and the forecast
for the predictor.
43 File Number
Probabilistic Model Analysis
1. Do Root Cause Analysis (RCA) and identify the causes for defect leakage in Req
phase
2. Prioritize the causes (using Pareto)
3. Identify improvement alternatives in Req phase
4. Study the process behavior by simulating the process for the proposed
improvements (What-If analysis)
5. Study the process improvement having an impact on process output measure
(Goal)
6. Pilot the process in few projects
7. Analyze results
8. Institutionalize and deploy the process improvement in other projects
45 File Number
“What If” Analysis…???!!!
Assume that, if the new proposed process improvement suggest to have a balanced
composition of reviewers with experienced people (Min of 1.5 years, average of 2.4 to
the earlier of 0.5 years, average of 1.72, and an improvement in the review process
which results an additional review effort of mean 10Hrs and Std Deviation of 1.5 per
inspection, then, the New input parameter distributions looks like…
Reviewers Domain Experience Review Effort / Req
Old
New
46 File Number
“What If” Analysis…???!!!
47 File Number
Probable Improvements in End Result
48 File Number
What is possible changes in “End Measures”?
49 File Number
Possible changes in “Effort”
Current Process New Proposed Process
50 File Number
Possible changes in “Quality”
Current Process New Proposed Process
Observation:
• Though there is increase in Req review effort, there is NOT much change in Total
Effort. Because, it is compensated by reduction in effort to fix the defects in later
phases
• However, there is improvement in the post release defect leakage measure
• The certainty of meeting quality goal of 0.1 defects / Req has increased from 78.5% to
83.0%
52 File Number
At the beginning of Project
Regression Equation:
Req Defect Density = 0.153 - 0.0618 Dev Effort / Req + 0.0608 Reviewers Domain
Experience + 0.48 Review Effort / Req + 0.23 Req Volatility
1.4
1.22
1.10
1.2
1.01
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.95
0.90
1
0.83
Defect Density
0.70
0.68
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Components
Predicted Req DD from Planned x's
53 File Number
During the Execution of Project
Monitor & Control the Input Parameters & Monitor Output Predictor
Output Measure (Y1) Input Measures (x’s)
I Chart of Predicted Req DD from Actual x
1.50
UCL=1.466
1.25
Individual Value
1.00 _
X=0.931
0.75
0.50
LCL=0.396
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Observation
54 File Number
During the Execution of Project
Regression Equation:
Req Defect Density = 0.153 - 0.0618 Dev Effort / Req + 0.0608 Reviewers Domain
Experience + 0.48 Review Effort / Req + 0.23 Req Volatility
1.4
1.22
1.10
1.09
1.09
1.08
1.06
1.2
1.02
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.95
0.90
0.87
1
0.83
Defect Density
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.72
0.70
0.68
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Components
Predicted Req DD from Planned x's Predicted Req DD from Actual x's
55 File Number
During the Execution of Project
Compare the actual Defect Density with Predict from planned values of x’s
and actual values of x’s
1.33
1.27
1.25
1.4
1.22
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.09
1.09
1.08
1.06
1.2 1.03
1.02
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.95
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.87
0.86
1
0.84
0.83
Defect Density
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.72
0.70
0.69
0.68
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Components
Predicted Req DD from Planned x's Predicted Req DD from Actual x's Actual Req DD
Note: Existing Regression equation may not be valid, because of change in process (Process Improvement)
Staged Comparison:
1.00 X=1.038
0.75
observed…!!!
0.50
LCL=0.402
0.25
0.00
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41
Observation
57 File Number
Is Improvement Statistically Significant?
Statistical Justification: Test of Hypothesis H0: μ1 = μ2
Mean are same, there is NO significant difference
in DD between the data samples
H1: μ1 ≠ μ2
Mean are different, there is significant difference
in DD between the data samples
If P ≤ 0.05, Reject H0
If P > 0.05, Accept H0
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Acknowledgement
61 File Number
Contact Details
Amit Bhattacharjee
Six Sigma Black Belt
Principal Engineer
Amit.bhattacharjee@honeywell.com
Mobile: +91-99860 22908
Archana Kumar
Principal Engineer
Archana.kumar@honeywell.com
Mobile: +91-97407 77667
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