Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Markov Process To Forecast The Demand of The Motor Policies in Insurance Industry in The Market
Markov Process To Forecast The Demand of The Motor Policies in Insurance Industry in The Market
HTTPS://SITES.GOOGLE.COM/SITE/JOURNALOFCOMPUTING/
WWW.JOURNALOFCOMPUTING.ORG 153
Abstract - Finance, budgeting and investments are the area of management decision making where the tools and techniques of
Operation Research are applied. In the modern times of economic crisis, it has become very necessary for every government to
have a careful planning for the economic development of a country. Operation research techniques can be fruitfully applied in
Insurance Corporation to decide that what should be the premium rates for various modes of policies and how best the profits could
be distributed in the case of with profit policies. Markov Process is applicable in such situations where the state of system can be
defined by some descriptive measure of numerical value and where the system moves from one state to another on a probability
basis. This problem is an example of a brand switching problem that often arises in the sale of consumer goods.
—————————— ——————————
1. INTRODUCTION The procedure is constructing the transition matrix
O
(usually denoted by the symbol P) which tells us
PERATION research is the attack of modern the probability of making a transition from one
methods on complex problems arising in the state to another state. Letting:
directions of management to large system of men,
machine, materials and money in industry, State 1 = customer buying Motor policies
business and defense. The distinctive approach is of Insurance Industry A.
to develop scientific models of the system, State 2 = customer buying Motor policies
incorporating measurement of factors such as of competitors’
chance and risk with which to predict and compare
the outcomes of alternative decisions, strategies or We have the transition matrix P for this problem
controls. The purpose is to help management to given by
determine its policy and actions scientifically.
Markov Process is basically used in a brand To state 1 2
switching problem that often arises in Business. From state 1 |a1 a2 |
We are assuming the present probability of market 2 |b1 b2 |
segment of Motor vehicle policies in General
Insurance companies. Where the state of system
Where a1 is the probability of customers Insurance
can be defined by some descriptive measure of
Industry remaining loyal and a2 is probability of
numerical value and where the system moves from
customers Insurance Industry who switched to
one state to another on a probability basis. Now by
competitors. Similarly b1 is the probability of
the Markov process we will forecast the demand of
customer competitors remaining loyal and b2 is
motor policies in Insurance Industry in the Market.
probability of customer competitors who switched
to Insurance Industry.
Note here that the sum of the elements in each row
of the transition matrix is one. Note also that the
transition matrix is such that the rows are ʺFromʺ
JOURNAL OF COMPUTING, VOLUME 2, ISSUE 7, JULY 2010, ISSN 2151‐9617
HTTPS://SITES.GOOGLE.COM/SITE/JOURNALOFCOMPUTING/
WWW.JOURNALOFCOMPUTING.ORG 154
and the columns are ʺToʺ in terms of the state General Insurance policies are normally issued for
transitions. period of one year. These policies are to be
renewed before expiry date. For renewal of the
Hence we have the row matrix representing the policy, please contact the underwriting office or
initial state of the system given by: the Agent before expiry. Basic requirement for the
fresh policy is a proposal and premium. The
State 1 2 questions in proposal form are to be answered
[c1, c2] correctly, so that the policy is made properly.
While accepting the proposal form, the risk is
Where c1 and c2 are the current probability of insured in good faith. Non‐disclosure of material
market share of Insurance Industry A and facts or wrong answers may make the policy
Competitors’ Motor policies respectively. We invalid and insurance company may refuse the
usually denote this row matrix by s1 indicating the claim. As per one of the rules of Insurance Act, full
state of the system in the first period Now Markov premium for any policy has to be paid in advance.
Process tells us that, in period (year) t, the state of The insurance policy contract can purchased
the system is given by the row matrix st where: through an Agent, Broker or a Bank which acts as
Corporate Agent or directly from Companyʹs
office. The dealers of Motor vehicles are also
st = st‐1(P) =st‐2(P)(P) = ... = s1(P)t‐1
authorized to sell insurance policies for the
vehicles sold in their showroom. It is possible to
2. HISTORY OF THE INSURANCE incorporate changes in the policy by way of
INDUSTRY endorsements, if there is some change in the risk
during the currency of policy. Please inform such
The four public sector general insurance changes to the insurance Companyʹs office time to
companies—United India Insurance, National time and pay additional premium, if any, required
Insurance Company, New India Assurance and in incorporating new changes. The compensation
Oriental Insurance Company—have together for loss is main purpose of the insurance and we
grown at a slightly faster rate during the April‐ have a time bound mechanism for appointment of
November period this year than the private surveyor, processing of claim, payment of claim
players, for the first time since 2000 when private cheque etc. The process starts after you give an
entry was allowed in the general insurance sector. intimation of claim .Please give intimation of claim
immediately. You will get Claim form and
Insurance business is divided into four classes: 1) guidance about further formalities from the
Life Insurance 2) Fire Insurance 3) Marine underwriting office. All the available
Insurance and 4) Miscellaneous Insurance. Life information/documents pertaining to claims may
Insurers transact life insurance business; General be submitted, so that the claim can be settled
Insurers transact the rest. No composites are promptly. For Motor Claims in some select cities,
permitted as per law. we also have service centers to specially deal with
the claims, so that customer gets prompt service. In
Insurance is a federal subject in India. The primary case, you do not get response from any of our
legislation that deals with insurance business in office, Agent etc, we have our internal grievance
India is Insurance Act, 1938, and Insurance handling mechanism available in all the offices of
Regulatory & Development Authority Act, 1999. the Company. You may send a letter with full
Fire and Miscellaneous insurance businesses are details to the next higher office. There are other
predominant. Motor Vehicle insurance is methods like insurance Ombudsman or Consumer
compulsory. Tariff Advisory Committee (TAC) redressed forum also.
lays down tariff rates for some of the general
insurance products. 3. MATHEMATICAL
BACKGROUND
JOURNAL OF COMPUTING, VOLUME 2, ISSUE 7, JULY 2010, ISSN 2151‐9617
HTTPS://SITES.GOOGLE.COM/SITE/JOURNALOFCOMPUTING/
WWW.JOURNALOFCOMPUTING.ORG 155
In order to solve this problem we make use of State
Markov chains or Markov processes (which are a 1 2
special type of stochastic process). The procedure is [0.25, 0.75]
s1 indicating the state of the system in the first
to observe that, each year; a customer can either be
period. Now by the Markov process we will
buying motor policies of Insurance Industry or the
forecast the market segment of the Insurance
competitorsʹ. Hence we can construct a diagram as Industry by using the formula
shown below where the two circles represent the st = st‐1(P) =st‐2(P)(P) = ... = s1(P)t‐1
two states a customer can be in and the arcs
represent the probability that a customer makes a We already know the state of the system in year 1
transition each year between states. Note the (s1) so the state of the system in year two (s2) is
given by:
circular arcs indicating a ʺtransitionʺ from one state
s2 = s1P
to the same state. This diagram is known as the = [0.25, 0.75] |0.88 0.12 |
state‐transition diagram (and note that all the arcs in |0.15 0.85 |
that diagram are directed arcs). = [(0.25) (0.88) + (0.75) (0.15), (0.25) (0.12) + (0.75)
(0.85)]
= [0.3325, 0.6675]
Insurance
Competitors’ Hence in year two 33.25% of the people are in state
Industry
1 ‐ that is buying Motor of Insurance Industry A.
Note here that, as a numerical check, the elements
0.88 0.85 of st should always sum to one.
In year three the state of the system is given by:
0.12
s3 = s2P
State 1 State 2
= [0.3325, 0.6675] |0.88 0.12 |
|0.15 0.85 |
0.15
= [0.392725, 0.607275]
From state 1 |0.88 0.12 | [x1, x2] = [x1, x2] |0.88 0.12 |
|0.15 0.85 |
2 |0.15 0.85 |
Now we can assume that currently Insurance (And note also that x1 + x2 = 1). Hence we have
Industry A have some 25% of the market in Year three equations which we can solve.
2010. Hence we have the row matrix representing
the initial state of the system given by:
JOURNAL OF COMPUTING, VOLUME 2, ISSUE 7, JULY 2010, ISSN 2151‐9617
HTTPS://SITES.GOOGLE.COM/SITE/JOURNALOFCOMPUTING/
WWW.JOURNALOFCOMPUTING.ORG 156
And rearranging the first two equations we get
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I am grateful to my respected guide Dr. R. K.
0.12x1 ‐ 0.15x2 = 0 Shrivastava, HOD SMMRS Govt. Science College
0.12x1 ‐ 0.15x2 = 0 Gwalior to guide me on this work and would like
x1 + x2 = 1 to pay thanks to my colleagues and my husband to
support me.
Note here that the equation x1 + x2 = 1 is essential.
Without it we could not obtain a unique solution 7. REFERENCES
for x1 and x2. Solving we get x1 = 0.5556 and x2 =
0.4444 [1] Kai Li, Junjie Wei, (July 2009) “ Market Stability
switches in a continuous – Time Financial
Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs”.
Hence, in the long‐run, Insurance Industry’s A
market share will be 55.56%.
[2] Masao Nakamura and Alice O. Nakamura,
(1997) “A Markov analysis of per capita state
4. NUMERICAL RESULT AND andLocal police Expenditures and the
DISCUSSION allocation Problem of federal Aid”.
In this Section we will represent the solution table [3] P.D. England and R. J. Vesrall, (January 2002)
for the market segment of the Motor Policies in the “Stochastic Claims Reserving in General
Insurance Industry and their Competitors’. Insurance”
S. Year Market Segment (in %) [4] Wheeler, S.; Bean, Nigel Geoffery; Geffiney,
No. Insurance Competitors’ Janice Margaret; Taylor, P. (2006) “A Markov
Industry A Analysis of Social Learning and Adoption”.
1. 2010 25 75
2. 2011 33.25 66.75 [5] Ron Bird & Danny Yeung, 2010. ʺHow Do
3. 2012 39.2725 60.7275 Investors React Under Uncertainty?,ʺ Working
4. 2013 55.56 44.44 Paper Series 8, The Paul Woolley Centre for
and Capital Market Dysfunctionality, University of
Long Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
run
[6] Ron Bird & Lorenzo Casavecchia & Paul
5. CONCLUSION
Woolley, 2008. ʺInsights into the Market
We consider Algebraic approaches to calculate the Impact of Different Investment Styles,ʺ
steady‐state to avoid the lengthy arithmetic Working Paper Series 1, The Paul Woolley
JOURNAL OF COMPUTING, VOLUME 2, ISSUE 7, JULY 2010, ISSN 2151‐9617
HTTPS://SITES.GOOGLE.COM/SITE/JOURNALOFCOMPUTING/
WWW.JOURNALOFCOMPUTING.ORG 157
Neha Jain
Lecturer
K.R. Mangalam Institute of Management, New
Delhi,
Mob.:08010086336
Educational Qualifications:
Pursuing Ph D from Jiwaji University
Gwalior M.P.
M. Sc. (Mathematics), Jiwaji University,
Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh.
B.Sc. Computer Science from VRG College
Gwalior M.P.
Work Experience:
Currently Working with KR Mangalam
Institute of management, from Aug. 2009.