Technology Management

Session 1
Puneit Singh
Technology
Effects our lives in ways wherein it is difficult to
imagine living in ZERO technology environment
Technology is…
… driving changes in the business landscape
… no longer limited to supporting business decisions
…breaking down traditional industrial boundaries
… redefining a new era of competition

But still….
… people have been and will continue to express
disbelief – here is how
It will never Work
Television & Radio
Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six
months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. 
- Darryl F. Zanuck, Head of 20th Century-Fox, 1946.

Communication
Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires
and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.
- Editorial in the Boston Post, 1865

Computers
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.
- Ken Olson, President of Digital Corporation, 1977
… and there are numerous other examples
Some Forecasts were made…
1895: “Heavier than air flying machines are
impossible.” - Lord Kelvin
1920: “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk.” - HM
Warner
1943: “I think there is a world market of maybe five
computers.” - Thomas Watson, then Chairman, IBM.
1981: “640 K (internal memory) ought to be enough for
anybody.” - Bill Gates
Marvels of the 21st
Century
 Miracles of the 21st century

1. Wind farm in the middle of the

ocean
20 km from the coast of Denmark, you will find “Horns Rev”, the biggest wind
farm in the world. 80 turbines 110 m tall, capable of 160 MW
The fins are 30 m long!
 Miracles of the 21st century

2. Fantasy road that exists part

of the time
 Arctic highway

.
The highway between Tibbitt and Contwoyto in Canada.
Most dangerous road in the world. It is over 500km long and consist of 85% frozen
lakes. The ice can break at any time.
 This road can only
operate / come into effect
during the coldest months
of the year. When the ice
becomes strong enough
every year the road is
made.

Here is a series of truck on

the ice – each 70 τons.
Some people
try and push
their luck at
the end of the
season – but
in the end
nature has the
final say.
Miracles of the 21st century

3. Colossus of the sea.

 The biggest ship in the world.

Used for the heaviest, and biggest of things needing

transport
 Oil Rigs
transported
off-shore …
…Oil refinery

…a whole Military
Radar…
 How it can be loaded at sea;

1. It sinks under the

water…

3. And then it raises itself!!

The ships park on top…

SIMPLU, NU ?
Miracles of the 21st century

4. Modern ways to
control water.
(a water highway;)
 It’s a bridge that
The bridge goes over the Elba
“Magdeburg” river.
(Germany) – you need
It allows boats easy
to look at it a number
access into canals.
of times to
understand what is It cost more than
actually happening. 500 million Euros
and took 6 years to
build
Technology Management
A closer look…
TM depends upon…
Leadership
Motivation of employees
Appropriate management of technology

Goal is to create synergy among all factors

Managerial Functions of TM
Managerial Functions of TMs
 The Hype Cycle
Reflection of Technology life cycle
Hype Cycle
Gartner's Hype Cycles offer an overview of the relative
maturity of technologies in a certain domain. They
provide not only a scorecard to separate hype from reality,
but also models that help enterprises decide when they
should adopt a new technology.
The Hype Cycle…
…talks about the stages of technology
Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
The Hype Cycle
 Establishes the expectation that most technologies will inevitably
progress through the pattern of over enthusiasm and disillusionment

 Provides a snapshot of the relative maturity of technologies within a

certain segment of the Industry, such as a technology area, horizontal
or vertical business market, or a certain demographic audience

 Has a simple and clear message: Companies should not invest in a

technology just because it is being hyped, nor should they ignore a
technology just because it is not living up to early over expectations
Classification of Enterprises
Type A – Technology Aggressive – Relatively
comfortable adopting new technology

Type B – Moderately Aggressive – Investigate and pilot

slowly

Type C – Conservatives – These enterprises remain

wary of new technology
Positioning a technology on the Hype Cycle
Positioning on the Hype cycle depends on a consensus
assessment of hype and maturity.

Ability to deploy, ability to manage, domain of usage

are some factors that impact this positioning.
Phases of Hype Cycle

In Hype Cycle reports, technologies are presented in five categories

representing the various
stages on the Hype Cycle. These stages are characterized by distinct
investment, product and
market patterns.
On the Rise
• Research & Lab Prototypes
• Potential Venture Capital
• Technology is expensive
• Solutions customised based on demand
At the Peak

• Number of vendors increases

• Market based on Hype
• Emergence of Trough of Disillusionment
because of issues with first generation
products
 Sliding into the Trough

• Technology Discredited/ Public Failures

• Vendors working on technology
improvement
• Vendors push for adoption across the
“chasm” – from early adopters to majority
market
 Climbing the Slope

• Second/ Third Gen products launched

• Technology maturing
• Service component reducing
• Mezzanine Funding
• Market penetration at 5%
• Conservative enterprises stay away
 Entering the Plateau

• Start of mainstream adoption

• Out of the box implementations abound
• Conservative enterprises start adoption
• Ecosystem becomes functional
• Hype disappears
Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market
Penetration
 Lessons
 Technologies should not be adopted
just because they are at the Peak of
Inflated Expectations, nor should they
necessarily be abandoned at the Trough
of Disillusionment.

 Beware of the "noise filter" that most

Adoption Patterns
business and IT strategists apply.

 The Hype Cycle is also a measurement

of knowledge and risk.

 Be aware of adoption patterns of Type

A, B and C enterprises.

 The Hype Cycle should not be used for

internal technology prioritization
within the technology planning
Noise Filter function.
Technology Adoption
Absorption of Technology by the Consumers
(Both Industrial and End-consumers)
Technology Adoption/Absorption
Cycle
Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle
What is Chasm
Period of discontinuity in adoption of high tech
products
People tend to delay the purchase of technology in
order to obtain reviews from the innovators
Innovators
First to get hands on the technology. Also called as
Geeks/ Freaks etc.
They are often consulted with before other use
technology
May not the ones with money, but do influence
decision makers
Early Adopters
Have the vision to match an emerging technology to a
strategic opportunity
They look for breakthroughs, rather than
improvements
Early majority
Are low risk takers & believe that leading edge is
bleeding edge
Believe in evolution rather than revolution
Want incremental improvement and predictable
progress
Hard to get onboard, but once on, they stay.
Microsoft Corporation has benefited the most from
such category
Late Majority
Pessimist, fearful
Price sensitive, demanding and skeptical
Adopt only when they feel the need in order to survive
or face extinction
Prefer bundled products that are simple to use
Laggards
They don’t participate in the tech markets except to
block purchases
Goal is to sell around them
Technology Transfer
Technology Transfer
It is based on the concept of Metcalf’s law which states
that the value of the telecommunication network is
proportional to the square of the number of connected
users of the system – n2
Technology Transfer
It is the process of sharing of skills, knowledge,
technology, methods of manufacturing etc among
others to ensure technological development is
accessible to a wider range of users, who can further
develop and exploit the technology into new products.
Example
Mutliflow Computer Inc.
Open Source Software development,
Research into Nuclear fusion
Diffusion of Innovation
Diffusion of Innovation
"Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is
communicated through certain channels over time
among the members of a social System.“
In other words, the study of the diffusion of
innovation is the study of how, why, and at what rate
new ideas and technology spread through cultures.
Diffusion of Innovation
How, Why, and at What Rate new ideas and technology spread
through cultures.

For example:-

Acceptance of new technological products:

 the wrist watch and the personal computer
 foods like tomato sauce and sushi,
 music styles like opera and nova,
 dressing styles like the top hat and blue jeans,
 ideals like democracy or feminism …….and so on.
Diffusion of Innovation
Advertised products or services were "innovations" in
the culture.

The most influential channel of influence was not

from some broadcast medium, but down an echelon of
levels:
 small number of "early adopters"
 a larger number of "secondary adopters“
and from them to "tertiary adopters“
then to "quaternary adopters", etc.
Diffusion of Innovation
 There was also lateral influence within each level.
 Broadcast messages could reinforce the propagation from
one adopter level down to the next, but lower levels are
unlikely to respond until the level above them has adopted.
 People were more likely to adopt, or even consider
adopting, if people they know and respect have adopted.
 Imitation is the strongest influence channel. Therefore,
the most effective marketing strategy is to first sell to the
early adopters, then reinforce the diffusion to each
successive level, but not to waste resources on trying to
reach any given level before it is ready for it.
Diffusion of Innovation
The S-Curve and technology adoption
Diffusion of Innovation
 Innovations spread through society in a S Curve, as the
early adopters select the technology first, followed by the
majority, until a technology or innovation is common.
 Diffusion research centers on the conditions which
increase or decrease the likelihood that a new idea,
product, or practice will be adopted by members of a
given culture.
 People’s attitude toward a new technology is a key
element in its diffusion.

Diffusion of Innovation
Roger’s Innovation Decision Process theory states that
innovation diffusion is a process that occurs over time
through five stages:
 Knowledge
 Persuasion
 Decision
 Implementation
 Confirmation.
Diffusion of Innovation
 Innovation-decision process:

First knowledge of an innovation,

Forming an attitude toward the innovation,
Decision to adopt or reject,
Implementation of the new idea,
Confirmation of this decision.
Disruptive Technologies
Innovation
Is to bring new ideas, methods to the current way of
working
But most innovations are disruptive to the current
ways of working because they are better and more
effective or provide a cheap alternative
A disruptive innovation is one that improves a product
or service in such a way that the market doesn’t expect
typically by being lower priced or designed for a
different set of consumers
But don’t take it too far…
Disruptive Innovation - types
New Market
Aimed at new consumers who have previously not used
similar products/services in the market
Low-end
Whose lower price is of more importance than quality

A disruptive technology can come to dominate the

market. e. g. digital cameras, internet bandwidth
Disruptive Technology
Ignorance
Leaders often ignore the low-end or new market
disruptive technology and become aware only when
they have lost their majority market share to the new
technology
E.g Encyclopedia Britannica
Thank You
Intellectual Property
Rights
IPRs