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management will guide for FY08, largely fuelled by the steep rise rupee and fears of economic
slowdown in the US. From stock market perspective, Infosys, being the only large player besides
Satyam that gives an annual guidance, sets the tone for what one should expects from the overall
IT services sector.
We believe much of the analysis and scenario projections around Infosys' guidance are a futile
exercise. Over the last 5 years since Infosys has started given guidance, it has outperformed
every time by a significant degree both on EPS and revenue, including a year—FY04—in which
rupee appreciated by as much as 3.6%. Thus, our focus should remain on business fundamentals
and an analysis of trends in key business drivers.
We believe the demand environment for offshoring remains strong. There has been much
speculation on fall-out of possible economic slowdown in the US. We believe this has been
largely a case of people jumping the gun. Without getting into the discussions on whether and
when will be the slow-down in the US economy, we think there aren’t any leading indicators of
slowdown in the IT spend. Our analysis of quarterly growth rates of the US’ GDP and dollar
revenues of the top four Indian IT services companies indicate a marginal co-relation only with a
2 quarter lag.
One should also note the constant evolution in the profile of offshoring per se over the last few
years where-in, it has moved from traditional service streams of application development and
maintenance (ADM) to newer service lines such as package implementation, infrastructure
management, IT consulting and business process outsourcing. The share of non-ADM services
for Infosys has grown to 48% in 3Q 2007 from 17.6% in FY2000. Despite this rapid growth,
Indian players only have 0.9% share of the global non-ADM services market (which account for
over 89% of the $445 billion worldwide IT services market). An expansion in the market share
to even 3.2% by 2010 should help in sustaining the current growth rate for the industry.
Indian companies, especially tier 1 players, are also seeing expansion in the deal wins for ADM
services, both from size and duration perspective. The top six companies have announced at least
16 $50 million plus multi-year deal wins so far in FY2007, compared with eight deal wins of
similar size in FY2006. The growing share...
of annuity-based business should increase the visibility. However, we believe the growth will
remain volume-led; despite the reported MSA (master service agreement) renewals at 3-5%
higher price points, we believe average blended realisation growth will be muted.
From supply perspective too, we believe quantity is not a concern. We believe macro
environment remains strong, especially for the larger players, in an industry where scale is
increasingly becoming a big, if not the biggest, differentiator.
1.
This is the 1st part in the India Telecom report series. Internet & Broadband services have
been unable to emulate the growth that is seen by Indian Mobile sector, but it is growing steadily
nevertheless. The Indian government has heady plans when it comes to Broadband and Internet
services growth.
To achieve is 500 million subscriber base in next 3 years seems to be near impossible target !
Lets look at the where Indian Internet & Broadband services stand for the quarter ending March
2009:
Indian Internet & broadband services snapshot
According to TRAIs report, India currently has only 13.54 million Internet subscribers, which
includes broadband. This is a ridiculously low number !
Even the growth rate is lowly 5.3% – We seriously have problems when it comes to Internet
penetration !
While the wireless data Internet subscribers show close to 118 million subscribers, majority of
them are GPRS connection on mobiles, which according to me should not be counted as Internet
subscribers.
Indian Internet Subscriber Growth
• There were 13.54 million Internet subscribers at the end of March 2009 as compared to
12.85 million Internet subscribers at the end of December 2008 registering a growth of
5.30%.
• This growth rate is higher as compared to the growth rate of 5.01% at the end of
December 2008.
• Besides above, there were 117.82 million wireless data subscribers at the end of
March 2009 (capable of accessing data services including internet through mobile
handsets (GSM/ CDMA)).
• Broadband Subscriber Growth - The number of Broadband subscribers (with a
download speed of 256 Kbps or more) was 6.22 million at the end of March 2009 as
compared to 5.52 million at the end of December 2008. The growth rate of broadband
subscribers in this quarter is 12.68%.
Technology Used to Access Internet
• Broadband Subscribers Share (Technology wise) – Out of total 6.22 million
broadband subscribers,
○ 5.364 million are DSL based;
○ 0.474 million Cable Modem;
○ 0.244 million Ethernet LAN;
○ 0.042 million Fiber;
○ 0.072 million Wireless,
○ 0.020 million Leased Line
○ 0.002 million use other technologies
Internet Subscriber Growth QoQ
Although, Indian broadband connections have doubled in last one year, the growth rate is still
not enough. With a country population of close to 1.2 billion, 6.22 million broadband
connections is just ridiculous !
Telecom industry analysis uncovers the fact that this industry has a huge business potentiality
and is going to be a booming industry. Telecom industry analysis also reveals that this industry
will provide an immense employment opportunity in the coming years.
Statistical report
Phoenix Center research revealed that in the coming years, there will be a healthy competition
among the providers of telecommunication services. At the same time, the price will be lower
and quality will be higher. The new telecommunications technologies will replace the traditional
telecom services. Statistical data also reveals that the telecommunications industry is going to be
a dynamic and booming industry in the near future. The telecom industry comprises of complex
network of services like telephones, mobile phones and internet services.
Telecom industry trends
Throughout the world, telecom industry are being controlled by private companies instead of
government monopolies. Traditional telecom technologies are also being replaced by modern
wireless technologies, specifically in case of mobile services. One of the major objectives of
telecom industry is to enhance the quality and speed of Internet technology.
These days, telecom industry is more concerned with texts and images (Internet technologies),
rather than voice(telephone service). Most of the research works are going on Internet
accessibility, specifically on data applications and broadband services. The other major division
of telecom industry is mobile network sector, where lots of innovative research works are going
on. Previously the traditional telephone calls used to earn the maximum revenues, but these days
mobile service is going to replace traditional telephone services.
Telecom industry analysis from the experts point of view
Telecom industry is a vast and diversified industry and needs a huge capital to invest. That is
why the competitors of this industry should be such that they can meet that demand. From the
investor's point of view, it can be said that they should be well aware of cash flow in this
industry.
Telecommunications industry deals with the activities and services of electronic systems for
transmitting messages through cables, telephone, radio or television.
Components and factors responsible behind the growth of telecommunications industry
Two major factors responsible for the growth of telecommunications industry are use of modern
technology and market competition. One of the products of modern technologies is optical fibers,
which are being used as a medium of data transmission instead of using coaxial or twisted pair
cables. Optical fibers can carry a high volume of data and are easier to maintain and install. Use
of communication satellites make this telecommunications industry a booming industry.
The use of mobile network has a crucial role behind the growth of an improved
telecommunications industry. Leading companies are showing their interest to invest in this
telecommunications industry.
Telecommunications industry is going to be a digitized one. Use of ISDN (Inter Services Digital
Network) makes this telecommunication industry a total digitalized system and eventually
enhanced the speed and quality of digital communication.
To know more about telecommunications industry one can browse through the following links:
Telecom industry in India has a big market potentiality and is a fast growing sector.
Government of India is eager to reconstitute this telecom industry by enacting effective policies
for more investments from foreign companies, which results in a very competitive and
deregulated market in the world.
Policies of telecom industry in India
Government of India implemented the unified access licensing regime, which enables basic and
cellular mobile service to use any modern technology. In 1997, Telecom Regulatory Authority of
India (TRAI) was formed to facilitate the growth of the telecom sector in India.
The Role of Mobile VoIP in the Future of Mobile Internet Mobile Internet will be dominated
by mobile VoIP and other chat applications to give users a fully integrated 'mobile freedom'
Thursday, July 02, 2009
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Vital Analytics a pioneer in analyzing urban Indian mobile phone usage trends has
released its VAS service provider report on Urban Indian Mobile space. State run
mobile service providers are perceived to be offering most reasonably priced
services! 22% of BSNL and 16% of MTNL subscribers feel they (service provider)
offer a more reasonably priced services compared to overall subscribers. On the
product diversity side, Aircel and Vodafone do a great job as 11% of both service
providers’ subscribers appear to agree than overall subscribers. On customer
service front, MTNL, Loop mobile and Vodafone Essar are ahead of the curve with
subscribers to each provider agreeing 16% more than overall that they offer reliable
customer service. In terms of VAS Options likelihood of usage, unlimited data usage
at lower cost and better SMS bundle offers are two most popular VAS options Urban
Indian would subscribe to if offered by service providers! When asked what options
if offered would Urban Indians subscribe to with their service provider,
bundle/unlimited usage type options came out on top with “unlimited data usage at
low fixed price”being the most popular with over 40% suggesting they would likely
subscribe to, followed by “better bundle offers in SMS value added services” (39%
would likely subscribe).
VeriSign Supports Visa Mobile Platform to Advance Fast-
Growing Mobile Commerce Market
29 March, 2007 - VeriSign, Inc., (NASDAQ: VRSN), the leading provider of digital
infrastructure for the networked world, announced today that it has entered into an agreement
with Visa to support the Visa mobile platform to advance the already fast-growing mobile
commerce market, through mobile marketing campaigns and point-of-sale redemption of mobile
offers.
"The Visa mobile platform provides mobile operators and financial institutions the opportunity
to rapidly develop new mobile services utilising the unique interactive features of handsets." said
Patrick Gauthier, senior vice president, innovation, Visa International. "We are excited to be
working with VeriSign to combine secure payments with value-added promotional services. Our
collaboration is designed to enable consumers to receive promotions and information relevant to
their purchase experience anywhere via their mobile phones."
As a result of the agreement, Visa will provide mobile offer management capabilities including
the delivery of mobile coupons by leveraging VeriSign's content delivery services. VeriSign will
enable Visa, its members and merchants to create customised campaigns, mobile offers and
promotion programs. Additionally, the service will help marketers understand the performance
of their mobile campaigns potentially resulting in better returns on marketing dollars spent.
"Consumers are driving demand for new mobile commerce services and applications. They need
to be able to access information and make purchases in a secure environment anywhere and on
any device," said Brian Matthews, vice president of industry marketing -- financial services,
VeriSign. "We are excited to help Visa deliver the most compelling mobile payment
experience."
According to forecasts from a recent Juniper report, 2009 and 2010 will represent the start of the
wider adoption of mobile payment applications and services and will result in close to $1 billion
worth of worldwide payments being made via mobile by 2010.
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- Presentation Transcript
1. Virgin Mobile Retail strategy for entering the Indian Handset market
2. An Update
○ On 1st March 2008, Virgin Mobile has entered the Indian Market, tying
up with Tata Tele-services.
○ Virgin is primarily an MVNO company, and retail distribution is only a
part of the overall strategy.
3.
○ However, it is a very important piece.
○ Even for an MVNO like Virgin, having a finely crafted retail strategy can
mean the difference between a strong subscriber uptake rate or a
mediocre showing among the target audience.
4. Agenda
○ Virgin Mobile - Company Brief
○ The Indian Opportunity
○ Competition and Positioning
○ The Indian Consumer
○ VM’s Entry Strategy Review
○ Analysis and Recommendations
5. Virgin Mobile The Company
6. Global Reach
7. Virgin Mobile Charter As a customer, there’s nothing more frustrating than
dealing with a faceless bureaucracy or a member of staff who tows the party
line. A little something extra can really go a long way to improve a their
experience and their opinion of Virgin. E.g. A Virgin Trains manager took all
the placemats from First class and folded them into fans for the passengers
caught in an unpleasantly hot carriage when the air-conditioning failed. To
add a personal touch to our customer experience: the little extras….
8. Virgin Mobile Charter Speak from the heart, not a script. Talk to people the
way they prefer to be talked to – with warmth and humanity. When Virgin
Money sends people letters about their financial services they recognise it’s
the customer’s money, not theirs. They don’t write in jargon but as one
human being to another To offer an experience that’s 100% human, treating
customers with respect.
9. Organizational Mission
○ Keep it simple
○ Do what you say
○ Take the leap of faith
○ Keep on checking
○ Stay true to your values
○ Love the locals
10.Virgin’s New Venture Strategy
○ When we start a new venture, we base it on hard research and
analysis. Typically, we review the industry and put ourselves in the
customer's shoes to see what could make it better. We ask
fundamental questions: Is this an opportunity for restructuring a
market and creating competitive advantage? What are the competitors
doing? Is the customer confused or badly served ? Is this an
opportunity for building the Virgin brand ? Can we add value ? Will it
interact with our other businesses? Is there an appropriate trade-off
between risk and reward?
11.Size, Structure and Segments for Handset Retail
12.Mobile Retail - The Numbers
○ New Connections per month = 60,00,000
○ Handset Retail = 3,50,00,00,00,000
○ Airtime + Accessories + Handset = 7,50,00,00,00,000
13.The Demographics
○ 50%
14.What Virgin Needs To Know
○ No Bundling - Handsets sold directly so far, not by operators. This
works in the favor of retailers, though it has begun to change.
○ 7-9 Models added every month.
○ Replacement sales account for as much as 60%.
○ People are replacing handsets every 18-24 months
15.Organized Retail
○ There are 95000 retail outlets in all
○ Only 1% of these are organized retailers
○ By Sales, organized retail has a share of 7%
16.The Future - Growth Rates
○ Handset retail market has been growing at a CAGR of 60%
○ Overall, the Mobile retail market is growing at 20%
○ According to Gartner figures for Sep 07, India recorded the fastest
growth in mobile handset sales
17.The Future - Volumes
18.The Potential - Handset Retail
19.The Future - Trends
○ Saturation in the urban market
○ Rural India will drive growth, accounting for 35-38% of total handset
market.
○ Aggressive promotions to get more common
○ Low priced handsets and handset bundle offers.
20.PEST – Politico-Legal Environment
○ Politically stable country. However, there are certain parties with
vested interests that act as bottlenecks.
○ FDI allowed upto 24% for foreign players w.e.f. April, 2008
○ Availability of cheap as well as professional labour
○ Weak consumer protection laws
○ Increasing recognition of the potential in the retail space by the
government.
21.PEST - Economic Environment
○ 7-9% growth rate; mobile retail growing at 20%.
○ Credit Sales have started, and Cell Phones are being sold on EMI.
○ The Monetary policy aims to contain inflation close to 5.0% in 2007-08
while conditioning expectations in the range of 4.0-4.5%.
○ Indirect taxes like service tax on immovable property adds to the
costs. The retailers want to move the service tax on rent, telephone,
etc to sales tax.
○ Consumer confidence in the organized retail format is high and
encouraging.
22.PEST - Social Environment
○ 21.5 crore people between the ages of 14 – 25 years
○ Demographics - A lot of demand is coming from Rural India, as as
much as half of the newly added subscriber are from rural areas.
○ Growing middle class and youth with an increasing propensity to save.
○ Changing attitude- live for today
23.PEST - Technological Environment
○ The mobile sector has grown more than tenfold from 2001 to around 6
crore subscribers by mid-2005.
○ 10% of the ISPs have 90% of the subscribers
○ The country’s mobile market stands at Rs. 35,000 crores and is
growing at an annual rate of 60%.
24.Porter’s Five Forces
25.Porter’s Five Forces
○ Threat from New Entrants: High
○ Rising cost of retail real estate makes nationwide competition difficult,
but numerous national and foreign players are interested to enter
26.Porter’s Five Forces
○ Competitive Rivalry: Moderate
○ Margins are thin at mere 4%. Pressure from Second hand sales makes
it worse.
○ Buyer Power: High
○ Buyers Demanding greater variety at lower prices
27.Porter’s Five Forces
○ Supplier Power: Moderate
○ Suppliers have strong brands and often have a presence in retail
themselves
○ Network Operators are able to push cheaper brands (e.g. Reliance
Classic)
28.Porter’s Five Forces
○ Threat of Substitution: High
○ Second hand phone market and unorganized retail is strong.
○ Most demand is from rural areas – where organized retailers don’t have
a presence.
29.Competitive Landscape Players, Positioning and Strength
30.Existing Players
○ Nokia
○ Samsung
○ Sony World
○ ConvergeM (Future Group)
○ Mobile Store (JV between Essar and Virgin)
○ MobileNxt
○ Univercell
○ Hotspot (Spice Telecom)
○ RPG Cellucom
○ Subhiksha
○ M Bazaar
31.Nokia
○ Around 50% market share in Indian mobile market
○ Focus on “Mother Brand” than on “Another Brand”
○ Addressed all five needs “REAPS” of Indian Consumer
○ Strong focus on distribution network
○ Reduced their prices to counter the grey market
32.Mobile Store
○ Essar Group venture - entered Jan 2007
○ Target Segment - 18 to 45 years
○ Eyeing 10% market share, 2500 stores, 600 cities, and breakeven by
2010
○ Plans to invest 1250 cr by 2010
○ 3 Formats - large medium and compact, in 20:60:20 ratio
○ Against Franchising - dilutes brand value
33.Positioning Map
34.Consumer Need Analysis Segments, Buyer Behavior and Gaps
35.Consumer Segments I want everything from my mobile and I want it now My
phone means I belong amongst my peers My life is a juggling act – my mobile
keeps me connected I want a phone that makes me look good - even when I
can’t afford it To stay ahead of the game you need the best tools New
experiences, new possessions, new technologies – that’s what I want I’ll
adopt new technologies if you show me a good reason I’ll carry a mobile if I
need to… Pioneer Youth Mainstream Youth In-touch Organizers Mainstream
Materialists Careerist Experiencers Family Phoners Basic Phoners
36.The Indian CellPhone Buyer
○ Replace handsets every 18-24 months
○ High demand from upgraders
○ Price Sensitive - bulk of demand from sub 5000 price range
○ VAS such as Texting very popular among Urban, Young customers
37.The Opportunity
○ Urban youth: Distinct mobile needs
○ More and longer out-bound voice calls
○ Large calling circles for both making and receiving calls
○ Large users of SMS
○ Both the earliest adopters and highest users of value-added services
○ Higher usage for both voice and SMS at weekends
38.Urban Youth: More Than Just A Segment
○ India has 21.5 crore people between the ages of 14 – 25 years old.
○ Incremental urban youth subscribers between 2008 and 2010 will be
more than 5 crores.
○ Urban youth mobile service revenues > Rs. 35,000 crores by 2010
○ Mobile as a badge of self-expression: brand and style very important
39.Indian Market Entry Strategy Target Segment, Positioning and Objectives
40.Virgin India Strategy
○ Target Segment - Urban Youth
○ Sales Objectives
Revenues of Rs. 35000 Crores by 2011 (including connections,
handsets and accessories)
○ Image Objectives
Establish the brand name
○ Market Share Objectives
10% of the market in 3 years
41.Positioning - Seeking Youngistan
○ Mainstream Youth and Materialists
○ 14-25 years
○ Young executives / students / Youthful Adults
42.Virgin India Strategy - Differentiation
○ Win a 10% share of the urban youth market by…
○ Delivering imaginative solutions that offer
○ Value for money & flexible tariffs that reflect their unique needs
○ Innovative, game-changing value-added services
○ Great handsets at great prices
○ Personalized customer care
43.Virgin India Strategy - Cost
○ Whilst achieving a low operating cost per customer through
○ Sharp focus on India’s top youth markets
○ Fewer, stable propositions with low support and service costs
○ Imaginative, eye-catching advertising & PR that gets youth talking
○ A lean, enthusiastic team supported by simple processes
44.Differentiation Strategy - Customer Care
○ Taking the hassle out of buying a cell phone
○ Try before you buy
○ Real conversations: no scripts
○ End-to-end ownership of problems: same Champ call-back
○ Champ empowerment: authorized to resolve issues on the spot
○ Welcome calls: all customers are personally welcomed to Virgin Mobile
○ A real returns policy
45.Returns Policy
○ q. Lost my charger, battery fell off and someone threw my phone…
gasp!
○ a. Tension nahin leneka. Whatever your problem you can walk into any
service center and get replacements for faulty* items in your pack.
Here’s a list of our service center .
○ *conditions apply. But don’t get scared about it.
46.Differentiation Strategy
○ Value for Money and Flexible Service Offerings
47.Differentiation Strategy - First Time In India
○ Get paid to receive calls
○ 50 paise to any local network
○ TGI the weekend Bolt-on
○ One Touch access to V-Bytes
○ Unlimited access to V-Bytes for a simple daily charge
○ ‘ 100% colour, 100% FM’ handsets
○ Easy Handset upgrades
○ Personalised Care
○ Safe Secrets
48.Virgin India Strategy - Promotions
○ Think Hatke Campaign
○ 10 paise every minutes on incoming
49.Virgin India Strategy - Location And Ownership
○ “ You have to be in front of the right people.”
Howard Handler
CMO, Virgin Mobile
50.Virgin India Strategy - Location
○ Shop in Shop and Kiosks
○ Non exclusive, extensive coverage, lower costs
○ The one commonality all of the retailers share is they are places where
teens shop, because that's Virgin's core market.
51.A Virgin Kiosk
52.Virgin India Strategy - Expansion Plans
○ To begin with, Virgin Mobile services were launched in 50 cities with
15,000 handsets & 40,000 top-up outlets. Also, with 55 Virgin Mobile
kiosks & Shop-in-Shops.
○ Plan to expand to 1000 cities by 2008-end
○ Aims to acquire 50 lakh subscribers over the next 3 years, by when it
would be profitable.
○ By the end of 2008, when the new GSM players start rolling out their
services, Virgin Mobile aims to offer similar services on GSM as well.
53.Virgin Mobile Analysis and Recommendations
54.South African Experience
○ Virgin entered as a 50-50 partnership with Cell C, H1, 2006
○ Classified itself as an ESP, since MVNO’s are illegal in SA
○ Premium Pricing, supported by a strong brand, superior customer
service and pricing plan simplicity
55.Singapore Experience
○ Entered through a tie-up with SingTel
○ Exited the market - citing premium pricing and crowded market
○ Customers placed more premium on Price
○ SingTel tariffs too high - texting too expensive
56.Strategic Choices for Mobile Retailers Price Volume Low High High Low Cost
Strategy-Viable Low Cost Strategy- Unviable Not sustainable Premium
Positioning-Viable
57.Positioning Virgin BRAND ENGAGEMENT CAN BE THE ONLY DIFFERENTIATOR
OFFER SIMILAR ACROSS RETAILERS ASSORTMENT EXPECTED CONSUMER
MORE EVOLVED PRICE COMPETIVENESS SHORT LIVED
58.200 companies worldwide, employing 48 500 people, an annual Virgin Group
turnover of £10.8bn/US$20.4bn … .one of the most exciting brands in the
world
59.SWOT
○ Threats
○ Rising Retail Costs
○ Lack of number portability - switching barriers
○ Unclear Government Policy on MVNO
○ Falling Handset prices - lower margins
○ Saturation - Mobile penetration in excess of 40%.
○ Opportunities
○ India a growth story - 20-30% CAGR, highest handset sales volumes.
○ Organized Retail mere 7% by revenue, 1% by outlets.
○ Most entrants are new, few established competitors
60.SWOT
○ Weaknesses
○ Dependent on Partners for pricing, capacity
○ Non serious image may not go well with conservative Indian consumer.
○ Limited understanding of India Market
○ Strengths
○ Strong Global Brand
○ Limited overlap with Tata’s existing customers
○ Very low fixed costs as it leases Network Time
○ Not tied to a particular Technology
61.Capitalizing On Strengths
○ Into retailing + service provider
○ If the GoI allows MVNOs then after tying up with GSM players, can beat
Reliance
○ Good brand recall
○ Structured pricing of airtime serves as a loyalty incentive, encouraging
active use
62.Making Weaknesses Irrelevant
○ People not familiar with the MVNO concept
○ Tata Teleservices does not have a good brand image
○ Confusion in the minds of consumer about the Virgin-Tata deal- a re-
branding exercise by Tata Teleservices?
63.Recommendations
○ Key advantage over other (non-operator) retailers - presence in both
retailing and airtime
○ Key advantage over operators - not tied to technology (as an MVNO)
64.Recommendations
○ Forge deal with a GSM player
○ Offer bundled plans - subsidize handset costs with Airtime
○ Offer for both CDMA and GSM - greater assortment
○ Offer plans for 2 years, with upgrade options
65.Recommendations
○ VM is moving in the right direction but time is still not ripe for a big
bang entry into handset retailing
○ Need to see the response to Airtime and expand in other cities
○ Continue tie-ups with existing Mobile retailers like Univercell, Hotspot,
M Bazaar, M Port, Vishal, etc.
66.Thank You !!
/w EWBgKBkebgC
V-SAT 184.52
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