MEMORANDUM

TO: REP. PETE SESSIONS – NRCC CHAIRMAN

FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE B PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: RECENT POLL DATA

DATE: OCTOBER 6, 2010

As you know, we recently completed a poll of 400 likely voters in New York’s 23rd
Congressional District on behalf of the NRCC. The poll was conducted September 22-23 and
has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

In light of the fact that independent candidate Doug Hoffman dropped out of this race yesterday,
dramatically changing the complexion of this race, I thought it would be helpful to take a fresh
look at the two-way ballot we tested on our late September poll.

Key Findings
1. Matt leads a two-way ballot over Owens by 51%-37%.
On a two-way ballot against Owens, Doheny has a significant 51%-37% lead, as Matt
picks up fully 68% of Hoffman’s initial voters.

2. Matt has a better image ratio than Owens.

While Bill Owens is better known in the district, his image score of 42% favorable –
23% unfavorable (1.8-1 positive image ratio) indicates he has failed to solidify his
positioning in this district. On the other hand, Matt’s image score of 37% favorable –
15% unfavorable (2.5-1 positive image ratio) indicates that he has emerged from his
primary win with a solid image in the district.

3. Owens’ re-elect score is 30%, with 47% of voters wanting a new person.
It’s apparent that in the short time Bill Owens has been in Congress, he has failed to
impress the voters of this district. Just 30% believe he’s done well-enough to deserve re-
election, while 47% say it’s time for a change and a new person to be elected.

Bottom Line
Matt Doheny is well-positioned in this race to become the district’s next Congressman. The
district is strongly tilting toward the GOP, Owens has done little to coalesce his support, and
Doug Hoffman’s departure from this race and full support for Doheny has boosted Matt into a
double-digit lead. The stage is set for Matt to put this seat back in GOP hands.