Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Post-Election Presentation
Governor 53 5 41 +12
Lieutenant Governor 50 10 40 +10
Secretary of State 54 8 38 +16
Controller 55 9 37 +18
Treasurer 56 7 37 +19
Attorney General 46 8 46 -
Insurance Commissioner 50 12 38 +12
Senator 52 5 43 +9
0% 100%
Gubernatorial Race
54
+ 950,984
Votes 41
4,250,065 3,299,081
36
37 35
28
10
25 22 14 6 18 38
8
Costa lost support from Independent and Republican
women.
Congressional District 20
Republican Women Independent Women Overall
18
20
10 15
0 -3
-10 October 1st October 26th
-20 -28
-30 -34
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90 -84
Congressional District 20
Costa Vidak
60 54
50 47 50.9
49.1
40 36 44
30
20
10
0
October 1st October 26th Election Day
12
Whitman spent $135+ million MORE than Brown.
$160,092,822
$24,843,297
Brown Whitman
*Data from Secretary of State 13
More than 8 times as much per vote.
$48.53
$5.85
Brown Whitman
*Data from Secretary of State 14
Whitman’s early lead resembled Arnold’s from four years ago.
Democrat Republican
+4 +3
44 43 46
40
SUMMER
After winning the primary, Whitman has 112 days of
television advertising without response from the
Brown campaign.
The result…
20
Over the summer, Brown remained stable.
Brown Favorability
Favorable Unfavorable
50 45 44
40 42 43 42
41
30
20
10
0
June 24th August 1st September 1st
Whitman Favorability
Favorable Unfavorable
50
43 43 42 44
40
40 38
30
20
10
0
June 24th August 1st September 1st
30
20
10
0
June 24th August 1st September 1st
44 46 45
39
40
39 40 39 37
Angelides Schwarzenegger
20
60
Feb* Mar Apr* May* Jun Jul*
2010
46 47 47
46
45 45 46
40 43
Brown Whitman
20
Feb Mar* Apr May Jun Jul
Is someone I trust 34 28 38 +4
0% 100%
Vote by Ethnicity
Latinos for Brown Latinos for Whitman
70
63
59
60
50 51
40
37
30
32
20 25
10
0
June 24th August 1st September 1st
27
Whitman’s attacks created concern that Latino
Democrats may just not vote.
70 69
60
50
June 24th August 1st September 1st
28
Reason #2:
FALL
IEs targeted key constituencies and showed how Brown would
be better for voters than Whitman.
30
After Labor Day, Whitman falls behind and never recovers.
Brown Whitman
60
53 54
50 45 46
43 47
40 36 41
38 38
30
20
10
0
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th Election Day
60
2006 56
49
44 46 45 44
39
40 39
39 40 39 37
34 33
Angelides Schwarzenegger
20
60
Feb* Mar Apr* May* Jun Jul* Aug Sep* Oct* E-Day
2010 54
46 47 47
46 46 47
46 45
45 45 43 41
40 43
36 38
Brown Whitman
20
Feb Mar* Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct E-Day
*Data from Field Poll, David Binder Research, and Secretary of State 32
This time, voters are educated about the risk that Whitman
would pose for California.
Whitman Favorability
Favorable Unfavorable
60
50 52
44 42
43 47
40 38
39 38
30
20
10
0
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th
Brown Favorability
Favorable Unfavorable
50 49 50
47
42
41
39 42 42
40
30
20
10
0
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th
Brown Advantage
Is someone I trust
Understands how to fix the economy
20
[NOT] Is a risky choice for Governor
15
10
5
0
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th
-5
-10
-15
-20
Vote by Gender
Women for Brown Women for Whitman
60 54
50 55
50 46 49
40 39
42
30 37 35
33
20
10
0
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th Election Day
Vote by Ethnicity
Latinos for Brown Latinos for Whitman
70 64
60
60 55
51 49
50
40
30 37 30
28
20 25
Housekeeper
21
10 Scandal
0
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th Election Day
Cambiando
Ads Start
82 83
80 78 79
79
78 77
70 69
Housekeeper
Scandal
60
September 1st September 28th October 17th October 29th
Cambiando
Ads Start
22
19
18
42
MMV learns:
43
The proportion of Asian Americans voting Democratic increased
more than any other demographic subgroup since 2006: an
increase of +42.
Democrat Republican
+25 62 +17
55
37 38
2006 2010
Through the fall, targets were identified and educated about the
risks to them if Whitman won. Voters moved to Brown, including:
46
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