Use of Mathematical Modeling

in Biology and Ecology

Prepared by:

Catherine Kiu
Sandra William
Sharon Yeo
Yong Bing Sing
 Use of
Mathematical
Modeling in Biology
and Ecology

Stella
Model

SIR (Susceptible– Predator-

Infected–
Recovered) Model Prey Model
Predator-Prey Model
 Lotka-Volterra Model

• Alfred J. Lotka • Vito Volterra

(1860-1940)
(1880-1949) – famous Italian mathematician
– American mathematical – Retired from pure mathematics
biologist in 1920
– His son-in-law, Humberto
– primary example: plant D'Ancona, was a biologist who
population/herbivorous studied the populations of
animal dependent on various species of fish in the
Adriatic Sea.
that plant for food
Rules and Regulation

1. This game involves 1 pupil as a guard, 4 pupils who act as

predators (snakes) and 14 pupils who act as preys (chickens).
2. A paper will be stick on the back of the preys.
3. Predator has to ‘eat’ the preys by taking paper which was
sticked on the back of preys and draw 20 stars on the paper.
4. Guard will examine the 20 stars drawn.
(20 stars drawn = prey is dead)
5. Other predator is not allowed to ‘eat’ the preys that are ‘dead’.
6. Predators are given 1 minute to ‘eat’ their preys.
7. Preys that are “dead”, have to stay with the guard.
8. Amount of preys that eaten by predators are recorded.
Guard

Predators Number of Preys

A 3
B 6
C 2
D 2
Number of Predators Number of Preys
1 A= 3,
B=6,
C=2,
D=2
2 A+B=9,
A+C= 5,
A+D = 5,
B+C=8,
B+D = 8,
C+D=4
3 A+B+C = 11,
A+B+D=11,
B+C+D = 10,
C+D+A = 7

4 A+B+C+D = 13
predators

preys
Phase portrait when p = 1.5
 Lotka-Volterra Model
• The Lotka-Volterra equations are a pair of first
order, non-linear, differential equations that
describe the dynamics of biological systems in
which two species interact.
• Forms the basis of many models used today in
the analysis of population dynamics
 Predator-Prey Differential Equations

Assumptions
• The predator species is totally dependent on
the prey species as its only food supply.
• The prey species has an unlimited food supply
and
• no threat to its growth other than the specific
predator.
• If there were no predators (y), the second
assumption would imply that the prey (x)
species grows exponentially.
• If is the size of the prey (x) population at time
t, x = x(t),then we would have = ax.
• But there are predators (y), which must
account for a negative component in the prey
(x) growth rate. Suppose we write y = y(t) for
the size of the predator (y) population at time
(t). Here are the crucial assumptions for
completing the model:
– The rate at which predators encounter prey is
jointly proportional to the sizes of the two
populations.
– A fixed proportion of encounters leads to the
death of the prey.
• These assumptions lead to the conclusion that
the negative component of the prey growth
rate is proportional to the product xy of the
population sizes.
= ax – bxy
• Now we consider the predator population. If
there were no food supply, the population
would die out at a rate proportional to its size,
we would find = -my

• (Keep in mind that the "natural growth rate" is

a composite of birth and death rates, both
presumably proportional to population size. In
the absence of food, there is no energy supply
to support the birth rate.)
• But there is a food supply: the prey (x). And
what's bad for prey (x) is good for predator (y).
That is, the energy to support growth of the
predator (y) population is proportional to
deaths of prey (x), so = -my + nxy
• This discussion leads to the Lotka-Volterra
Predator-Prey Model:

= ax – bxy

= -my + nxy
where a, b, m, and n are positive constants.
• This equations are called Lotka-Volterra
equations.
• The equations are autonomous because the rates
do not explicitly depend on time (t).
• The Lotka-Volterra model consists of a system
of linked differential equations that cannot be
separated from each other and that cannot be
solved in closed form. Nevertheless, there are
a few things we can learn from their symbolic
form.
 dy
• Explain why dy dt

dx dx
dt
Note: This is a general result in calculus.

= x

= (shown)
Thank You
 Question
• Given a=0.04, b=0.002, m=0.08, n=0.0004.

x = ___ , ____
y= ___ , ____
So, (x,y) = (0, 0) or (200, 20)
For the general Predator-Prey equations,
 What is equilibrium point?
• Consider the system of 2 autonomous differential
equations
dx
 f ( x, y )
dt
dy
 g ( x, y )
dt
The first step is find the equations of the zero
isoclines, which are defined as the set of points that
satisfy 0  f ( x, y )
0  g ( x, y )
 What is equilibrium point?
• Each equation results in a curve in the x-y
space.
• Point equilibrium occur where the two
isoclines intersect (Figure 1).
• A point equilibrium therefore simultaneously
satisfies the two equations
f(x, y) = 0 and g(x, y) = 0
• We will call point equilibrium.
 
 What is equilibrium point?
y

f ( x, y )  0

Equilibrium

g ( x, y )  0

Figure 1: Zero isoclines corresponding to the two differential

equations. Equilibrium occur where the isoclines intersect.
 Analyzing Predator-Prey equations
graphically

• With initial conditions of x=200 and y=10,

what do you observe?
Analyzing Predator-Prey equations
graphically

t (month)
 Fill in the blanks.
1. The chicken and snakes populations oscillate
periodically between their _________ maximum
and minimum.
2. For chicken, the population ranges from about
____________.
3. For snakes, the population ranges from about
____________.
4. About _________ months after the chicken
population peaks, the snakes population peaks.
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

• With initial conditions of x=200 and y=10,

what do you observe? Plot it.
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

• Starting from (200, 10), the solution curve can

be drawn such that the tangent follows the
slope fields. This gives a close curve in the xy-
plane as follows.
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey Equations
 Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

Based on the graph, at (200,10),

dx/dt = ?
dy/dt = ?
Please give the answers.
 Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

So, the chicken population is increasing at

(200, 10). This means that we should trace the
curve counterclockwise as t increases.
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations
 • Chick
en • snak
e

• Chicke
n • sna
ke
 Exercises
System
r’(t) = 2 r(t) – 0.01 r(t) f(t)
f’(t) = - f(t) + 0.01 r(t) f(t)
Exercise 1: Exercise 2:
Initial Conditions Initial Conditions
r(0) = 120 r(0) = 100
f(0) = 200 f(0) = 200

Exercise 3: Exercise 4:
Initial Conditions Initial Conditions
r(0) = 400 r(0) = 800
f(0) = 100 f(0) = 20
 SOFTWARE

MATHEMATICA 4.0

FORMULA
rabfox2 = NDSolve [{r’[t] == 2r[t]-0.01r[t] f[t],
f’[t] == -f[t]+0.01r[t] f[t], r[0] ==200, f[0]
==10}, {r[t], f[t]}, {t, 0, 10}]
rabfoxplot2 = ParametricPlot [{rabfox2[[1, 1, 2]],
rabfox2[[1, 2, 2]]}, {t, 0, 10}]
 References
• http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/
early/2010/05/25/rsif.2010.0142.full
• http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~jmontgom/predato
rprey.pdf
• http://www.faculty.umassd.edu/adam.hauskn
echt/temath/TEMATH2/Examples/PredatorPre
yModel.html
• http://www.simulistics.com/drupal/files/tutori
als/predprey/predprey.pdf
• http://www.stolaf.edu/people/mckelvey/envis
ion.dir/lotka-volt.html
• http://www.sheboygan.uwc.edu/uwsheboyga
n/webPages/yyang/223/Notes/28predatorpre
y.pdf
Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations