Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Research Report
Joe Madden
Analyst
Aditya Kaul
Practice Director, Mobile Networks
Section 1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Introduction
In mobile communications, the act of “monitoring” and “optimizing” the network has historically
referred to technicians visiting cell sites with test equipment, checking RF power levels and
antennas, and performing drive tests. At the network operations center, wireless carriers have
performed this act by watching parameters such as the dropped call rate and bit error rate/frame
error rate to keep track of statistical performance. Throughout the 1990s and even into the early
2000s, the most important parameters were related to coverage and voice.
The arrival of 3G created a longer list of key process indicators (KPIs) to track. Yet, operators
generally focused their attention on voice-related metrics because most of their revenue and
profit comes from voice services in 3G. Recently, operators have been surprised by the huge
increase in mobile data, especially from Internet-friendly smartphones such as the Apple iPhone.
As a result, they are beginning to emphasize data efficiency and signaling metrics in 3G and are
focusing much more heavily on data-related metrics for LTE and WiMAX.
Monitoring and optimization solutions are following this change in direction. Internet solutions
such as deep packet inspection (DPI) are suddenly in high demand from mobile operators.
Transport efficiency and radio signaling are becoming important metrics, surpassing the previous
simple focus on dropped call rates and voice call handovers.
• Streaming video content is flooding the radio channel and transport equipment.
• Client applications on the smartphone are constantly enabling radios, checking some data,
and then logging off again. When millions of these smartphones are authenticating radio
channels every five minutes, the signaling and TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) transport
setup is overwhelmed in a 3G network.
• Gaming applications demand ultra-low latency, which is not always met with 3G networks.
• Other bottlenecks are appearing – in almost every 3G network element.
End users are beginning to notice the quality of service issues resulting from the bottlenecks.
Voice calls are increasingly dropped on some networks, and latency issues on others are
creating noticeable delay for gaming and even VoIP applications. Both uplink and downlink
throughput are degraded by the constant signaling traffic on the network, thus reducing
user-perceived throughput dramatically.
In short, end users are now beginning to drive network improvements through their complaints
and churn to new networks. What’s different about this? Nowadays, subscribers are moving to a
new operator in order to get better data coverage – not necessarily better voice coverage.
Table 1.1 Mobile Network Monitoring & Optimization Equipment Revenue, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015 ($ Millions)
CAGR
Segment 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (09-15)
UE Clients 3.0 3.6 7.2 14.4 21.6 32.4 48.6 59.1%
Radio Test 200.0 208.0 216.3 225.0 225.0 225.0 225.0 2.0%
Radio Probes 99.0 108.9 119.8 125.8 132.1 138.7 145.6 6.6%
Routing/Transport 193.0 231.6 277.9 347.4 416.9 500.3 600.3 20.8%
OSS 378.0 453.6 544.3 653.2 783.8 940.6 1,128.7 20.0%
DPI 65.0 162.5 325.0 552.5 828.8 1,077.4 1,292.9 64.6%
Network Offloading 2.0 4.0 14.0 36.4 69.2 103.7 155.6 106.6%
Total 940.0 1,172.2 1,504.6 1,954.6 2,477.3 3,018.0 3,596.6 25.1%
(Source: ABI Research)
To address bottlenecks throughout the mobile network chain, operators are investing in multiple
monitoring and optimization solutions, ranging from client applications on the terminal to DPI
solutions in the core network. The operators are investing in two directions:
• The network equipment manufacturers are providing more OSS software and self-organizing
network (SON) features in both 3G and LTE networks.
• Independent suppliers of monitoring and optimization solutions are finding strong growth in
direct sales to operators. Overall, the independent market for various monitoring and
optimization solutions will grow at CAGRs of between 2% and 106% over the next five years.
1.3 Technology
Network operators are trying to balance the SON networks promised by their network OEMs with
several independent monitoring and optimization ideas scattered through the network. In
general, the SON use cases currently focus on radio parameters and self-configuration. SON
functionality is expected to expand into true optimization of additional network layers in the future.
• Client-based optimization solutions with software on the mobile terminal, typically to improve
efficiency in the transport layer
• Portable RAN test equipment, which is used to verify compliance to standards and optimize
the coverage/capacity of the radio layer at each cell site
• Fixed probes and related software for the radio layer to track call parameters and handovers
to isolate the root cause of radio access and mobility issues
• Protocol analyzers and transport optimization hardware, installed in the core network to
streamline packet sessions and improve on transport costs
• Operations support system (OSS) software, which aggregates performance data, inventory
information, and fault information to speed up root cause analysis
• DPI infrastructure, which examines each packet of data to categorize it for application content
• Offloading solutions, which can divert Internet traffic to save bandwidth in media gateways
and Gateway GPRS Support Node (GGSN) infrastructure
No one single solution is a “silver bullet” that will boost the capability of a network. Each
solution can provide between 15% and 50% improvement in efficiency for one network
element, but multiple bottlenecks exist simultaneously. Several of these solutions must be
used together in order to optimize all of the links in the chain. Thus, it is critical for network
operators to have a comprehensive, interoperable strategy.
1.4 Outlook
The growth of monitoring/optimization solutions is accelerating. These solutions will grow at 24%
overall during the next five years. The most advanced data networks in North America, Europe,
and Japan are the most important growth markets in the near term, as these large networks
currently have insufficient data capacity to handle anticipated demand over the next few years.
Chart 1.1 Mobile Network Monitoring & Optimization Equipment Revenue, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
($ Millions)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1.5 Recommendations
The unanticipated rush to the mobile Internet is happening now, and time is critical for operators,
network OEMs, and independent monitoring/optimization suppliers. The companies that can
work in a coordinated way in teams to attack multiple bottlenecks will achieve the greatest
network improvements, and thus will capture market share. Network monitoring and optimization
suppliers should ensure that they have focused solutions for 3G networks that are future-proof for
use with LTE in the near future. Large suppliers capable of handling multiple monitoring solutions
should strive to cover end-to-end requirements and integrate probes, analyzers, and OSS
software. Smaller, specialist suppliers should partner with other vendors in order to bring simple,
highly targeted solutions to market together with a comprehensive portfolio.
1.6 Conclusions
A shift in focus has long been expected for mobile networks, and it has been predicted that
LTE/WiMAX networks will address data issues. In reality, the data tsunami has hit 3G networks
before the deployment of LTE, forcing operators to invest early in solutions to better diagnose and
optimize for data applications. As LTE networks are rolled out, the market for network
optimization will grow even stronger.
Section 2.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Today’s complex mobile networks simply cannot be managed by an army of technicians in
blue jeans that drive to site locations and climb up towers to tweak the system. The techniques
and processes used to optimize an analog or 2G network would require a huge amount of
manpower in order to support 3G and 4G systems. Instead, the mobile network must be
managed statistically and automatically, with the technicians reserved for key interventions that
are triggered by statistical analyses of the system.
AT&T Wireless’ famous problems with backhaul and signaling in its 3G network are a prime
example. AT&T has been surprised by the sheer weight of iPhone data traffic, as over 55% of its
data traffic comes from less than 5% of its subscriber base. This issue has lingered for over a
year because the solution involves more than simple increases in backhaul capacity. The
iPhones, as well as Android and many other smartphones, continuously shut down their radios to
save power, then re-establish the data link for a quick data update. The result: a heavy load of
signaling traffic. This unprecedented rise of signaling traffic from iPhones has created a
bottleneck in the routing and radio signaling channels, which had basically been designed to
handle normal voice and SMS traffic throughout the AT&T network.
Chart 2.1 Mobile Traffic by Application, World Market, 2009 (TB per Month)
VOIP, 4,579
Chart 2.2 Mobile Traffic by Application, World Market, Forecast: 2014 (TB per Month)
VOIP, 156,829
Gaming, 173,177
Video, 2,336,732
Peer-to-Peer,
276,952
This problem is not unique to AT&T. Every carrier faces a similar loss of network quality if
smartphone, tablet, and mobile PC web traffic is allowed to continue growing without a
corresponding increase in network sophistication. The bottlenecks are manifesting
themselves in multiple locations throughout the network, from the user equipment (UE) to the
radio access network (RAN) to the core network.
3G networks have also evolved along the timeline to the point of implementing optimization
solutions. In this case, simple manual interventions are not always possible due to the high level
of complexity. Interventions such as neighbor list updates or power level adjustments can be
achieved remotely. In 3G, tiered billing structures to take advantage of end-user data
preferences are uncommon, often due to the lack of information available to operators at a
detailed level regarding the content downloaded by each user.
LTE networks will evolve even more quickly along the timeline, with self-configuration
features taking a major role in the deployment of the network and optimization algorithms
built in from the beginning. Business processes still lag behind the optimization features
available for network performance, but the rise in consumer data consumption will strongly
drive the development of more innovative pricing policies.
For 3G networks, the list of KPIs grew to include a few data metrics and the complexity of
handovers between multiple air interfaces, but the primary focus for most operators
remained on voice performance:
• Call setup success rate
• Packet Data Protocol (PDP) context activation success rate
• SMS/MMS success rate
• Call drop rate
• PDP context drop rate
• Soft handover success rate
• Hard handover success rate
• Inter-radio access technology handover success rate
• Call setup delay
In LTE, 3GPP defines KPIs in five categories with a clear focus on data quality of service. The
3GPP organization has been much more careful in the case of LTE to define KPIs with standard
definitions, including precise mathematical definitions of the KPI calculation. In doing so, 3GPP
hopes to address the confusion that has resulted from 3G KPIs defined differently by each
vendor, thus improving interoperability at an equipment level and communication at a human
level. The five LTE KPI definitions are:
Most operators use additional KPIs to address cost optimization targets as well, and a wide
variety of preferences are used by operators around the world. Both CAPEX and OPEX are
tracked by operators in calculations of parameters such as spectral efficiency, throughput per
backhaul fiber or microwave link, and even energy efficiency.
The market’s evolution to 4G does not change the equation for radio test gear very much. Radio
test equipment will continue to be required for drive testing and adjustments to the radio layer,
which cannot be achieved through software and automated controls alone.
The difference between 3G and 4G will be seen in the manpower required to deploy, configure,
and maintain the network. While technicians will always need a spectrum analyzer within reach,
SONs will hopefully reduce the number of times that they need to start up their truck and drive to
the cell site. SON technology will result in automatic programming of cell site parameters such as
neighbor lists and default frequencies, and power levels will increasingly be set through
coordinated data from neighboring eNodeB sites.
In the 100-year history of telecom networks, an ongoing market for OSS has developed
slowly and gradually. Almost any OSS on the mobile market can track basic KPIs such as
dropped call statistics and handovers between different vendors. However, operators
complain that the level of detailed information available in the OSS for troubleshooting is
inadequate. A typical 3G network today includes an OSS provided along with the mobile
network, as well as a parallel system of probes throughout the network, in order to isolate the
signaling issues and identify the root cause of traffic issues.
One of the primary functions of protocol analysis tools and related probes throughout the network
lies in the need for operators to quickly diagnose and solve problems. Today’s probes and
monitoring systems provide more specific data than a typical OSS, isolating problems through
analysis of the signaling between network elements on standard interfaces.
When the operator has visibility into the data patterns on the network, questions quickly arise:
In the area of optimization, network operators are focused on three basic concepts: cost
reduction, quality improvement, and revenue increase. Cost reductions and quality
improvements are the two areas that can be impacted through changes to network settings, since
revenue is generally independent of network performance.
Similar figures apply to LTE deployment, since the system will be initially installed to handle limited
capacity and will be stretched to accommodate users as LTE services are adopted. The savings are
difficult to distinguish in hypothetical comparisons to an “unoptimized” LTE network, but vendors and
network operators agree that significant savings are built into their plans for LTE optimization.
In addition, streamlining data packets can save a surprising amount of bandwidth in the transport
layer, improving throughput efficiency by roughly 15% to 25%. Harnessing transport optimization
tools to take advantage of 15% efficiency improvement can translate directly into reduced
transport cost, which averages roughly 30% of total operating cost for mobile operators
worldwide. In the United States, backhaul cost reduction is particularly important, since as much
as 50% of operating costs is spent on fiber and leased lines.
The OPEX savings from a suite of optimization solutions can be significant. As an example, for a
regional American mobile network with 6 million subscribers:
• The savings in technician labor and associated trucks/support can be in the range of
$30 million per year, or roughly 5% of the total operating cost budget.
• Transport efficiency improvement of 15% can result in cost savings of $24 million to
$28 million per year in transmission costs.
As an example, for VoIP and game users, latency is key but throughput may not be critical.
Conversely, for streaming media, the throughput efficiency is critical but latency can be absorbed
through buffering of the media. Therefore, these two users require different KPI profiles for
optimized QoE. True QoS metrics are increasingly focused on parameters that refer to the
efficiency of the network itself, such as packet retransmissions and overall throughput.
Vodafone has proposed the establishment of different grades of service (GoS) in order to separate
different users into virtual networks. This process would allow the operator to track different KPIs for
different grades of service and even optimize each group’s traffic for their particular usage pattern.
Technology is now coming into place to make new business schemes feasible. For example, DPI
tools can identify the content in each IP packet, triggering the OSS/BSS (Operations Support
System/Business Support System) to enforce policies on whether individual users may access
each content type. Coming out of the Internet market, DPI tools are capable of high capacity,
ranging up to 80 Gbps. However, network operators have yet to deploy DPI widely enough to
implement new pricing plans. A complete suite of DPI boxes (to accompany every GGSN on the
network) is necessary before an operator can implement a content-based pricing structure.
Simpler protocol analyzers can identify the source of content as a captive server, an Internet
server, or another mobile user to establish some coarse data categories. Many network
operators feel that these solutions are more suitable for troubleshooting and diagnostics; they are
not detailed enough to utilize as a basis for complex pricing plans.
The potential for increased revenue remains untapped in the market. ABI Research expects
operators to continue driving their networks toward better monitoring and diagnostic tools so
that they can implement policies based on content. During the past year, Verizon Wireless
has hinted that its strategy calls for migration to multi-tiered billing structures. Over the next
five years, we expect several major operators to gradually move pricing plans toward tiered,
content-driven plans tailored to end-user preferences.
In addition, with the increase in the number of frequency bands used worldwide, passive
intermodulation (PIM) has become an important test parameter. In the past, intermodulation from
passive components was considered negligible, but dual-band antenna and radio front-end
systems make it possible for loose connectors or dirty interfaces to create interference for mobile
signals. Special PIM testers have emerged as a new item on the market to address the loss of
capacity and performance that accompanies PIM.
Overall, vendors supporting the test equipment market, such as Agilent, Anritsu, Rohde &
Schwarz, and Tektronix, occupy a relatively stable capital equipment market that is currently
entering a phase of supplying deployment/monitoring gear for LTE. The rise of LTE is
resulting in a surprisingly smooth transition from legacy spectrum analyzers and power
meters to newer models with additional functionality.
2.8 Probes
While portable RF test equipment is sometimes necessary, most problems can be diagnosed
immediately through information available from the network elements themselves. A monitoring
system that uses probes installed at interfaces to RNC, SGSN, GGSN, MME, and LTE gateways
can provide information for almost instant diagnosis of simple problems.
Probes are generally passive data-collection devices that can be inserted at the interfaces of a
network without affecting communications between the network elements. They can range from
19-inch rack-mounted boxes to standardized (ATCA) racks with multiple probe cards. The most
common configurations involve probes in the 3G mobile core network, with a recent trend to add
more probes at 3G and LTE radio network interfaces, as well.
Probes report data up to a centralized aggregation point, and are sold along with software to view
a summary of network data. They also typically include Ethernet ports so that a technician can
plug in a laptop to view a probe’s data output locally.
The market for network monitoring probes and related software/transport optimization includes more
than $300 million in routing and transport layers, typically located at interfaces to SGSN and GGSN
equipment, and $160 million in probes for the radio and Layer 2 signaling, typically located near the
RNC equipment in 3G networks. When LTE systems roll out, an interesting level of competition will
arise between probe vendors and network equipment manufacturers such as Ericsson, Huawei, NSN,
and Alcatel-Lucent. As the network OEMs introduce more self-organizing and self-optimizing
networks, the network diagnostic capability will expand and the network’s ability to automate a
response will also improve. Operators have mixed responses to this trend:
• Operators that want to maintain flexible and manual control over the network are reluctant to
turn over control to an automated system. Thus, in many cases, the OEMs will limit initial
SON features to self-configuration aspects. In these cases, the probe vendors will continue
to see growth in the number of units sold and complexity/capacity of the probes, driving an
ongoing growth market.
• Operators that want integrated data collection (especially operators that have experienced
problems with multivendor interoperability) see the network OEM as the best way to
summarize diagnostic data. These operators are more likely to rely on diagnostic elements
built into the network and summarized in the OSS provided by their primary supplier.
Overall, probe vendors such as Astellia, Agilent, Radcom, and Tektronix are filling the holes left in
modern networks by providing valuable missing information in a simplified and aggregated central
console. Due to the reluctance of operators to give up control, ABI Research does not expect to
see these vendors step too deeply into automation of network responses. Nevertheless, these
vendors will continue to increase the scope of their probe offerings to accommodate LTE
networks. They will also gradually offer higher sophistication in the analysis of problems and
recommended response by operators.
(Source: Radcom)
Network equipment manufacturers are increasingly gathering revenue through services contracts,
with companies like In cases where the OEM manages and optimizes the network, in theory the
optimization is, well, optimal. However, large network equipment suppliers are often more
reluctant to engage with independent suppliers of probes, DPI equipment, and other handy tools
from competing outside suppliers. In the end, too much reliance on in-house solutions can leave
the network without the best tools for optimizing each communications layer.
Over time, we can expect the simple, radio-centric SON algorithms offered by major OEMs to
become more sophisticated for services customers. DPI, offloading, and other high-layer
capability will be added to the simpler radio algorithms. If the trend toward services
outsourcing continues as planned, the leverage applied by the major OEMs will put limits on
market growth for independent suppliers.
Chart 2.3 Captive OSS Market vs. Merchant OSS Market, World Market, 2010
Merchant Market,
35%
Captive Market,
65%
The served market for mobile OSS software is at $400 million per year and growing steadily, due
to the difficulty for any one company to cover all of the possibilities in complex multivendor,
multi-generation systems. Both network OEMs and independent suppliers can access the
standardized data from network interfaces, so differentiation takes place in the speed and
flexibility of customization and in the ease-of-use for the applications using OSS information.
Independent OSS vendors tend to move more quickly than NEMs to adapt to changes desired by
the network operators. Independent vendors such as Agilent, Anritsu, and Tektronix also offer
more flexibility in OSS integration with business systems. Smaller players such as Mycom offer
visibility in simple software that aggregates information from multivendor networks so that
operators can visualize the entire network in one place.
OSS typically consist of the software itself, which aggregates and displays information for the
operator. In most cases, the OSS provided by a major network OEM is connected to its own
network elements, resulting in islands of information. Many of the independent OSS
solutions sold today are packaged together with network probes or protocol analyzers in
order to create a more complete picture of the entire multivendor network. The OSS does not
typically interfere with any systems because the process is oriented around information
gathering, rather than controlling network elements.
As LTE and WiMAX networks are overlaid on top of existing 2G/3G networks, ABI Research
expects the OSS software to need even more flexibility and capability in order to gather
multivendor data. LTE/WiMAX metrics are a bit different than the 2G and 3G KPIs gathered in
some of today’s systems, so a significant trend in the LTE/WiMAX OSS market will involve
software upgrades to integrate new parameters.
Section 3.
TECHNOLOGY
In the 1990s, cell technicians would endlessly drive around and watch the received signal
strength indicator (RSSI) on a special handset. They would then, in many cases, climb up on
a rooftop or even onto a tower to change the tilt of an antenna, hoping to solve many different
issues with this manual, mechanical intervention. Those days are over. The complexity of
3G and 4G networks is making this simplistic type of radio optimization much less effective,
and thus manual intervention is a smaller part of the overall picture. Instead of simple
antenna tilting and other tweaks to the radio layer, network optimization today involves
changes to Layers 2 through 7 using a wide variety of tools and techniques.
• Portable test equipment for initial network deployment is used periodically to monitor and
maintain the radio layer.
• Stationary probes can be installed at almost every interface in the mobile network, collecting
data from base station and NodeB sites, SGSNs, GGSNs, RNCs, and media gateways.
• Protocol analyzers are often used to monitor the traffic and statistical data such as
retransmission rates, error rates, throughput, and other KPIs in Layers 2 through 4.
• The traffic itself can be monitored through deep packet inspection (DPI) tools, which examine
the data packets for signatures that indicate what type of application is used.
• Operations support systems (OSS) are implemented to centralize the collection and control of
multiple elements within the radio access and core networks.
• In all cases, optimization algorithms using the monitoring data collected can be implemented
to change radio, routing, or application parameters.
• Monitoring data can be reported to the network operator to initiate a business action, such as
suggesting a new data/pricing plan to the customer.
Almost every major mobile network today involves a mixture of 2G and 3G, as well as a
multivendor environment in which elements of the mobile network, core network, and backhaul
come from competing vendors. As operators begin to deploy LTE, making an overall monitoring
and optimization solution work requires an active and organized strategy.
Overall, many network operators plan to continue monitoring and optimizing 2G and 3G
networks with their existing, fairly manual processes and tools while relying on SONs to save
manpower and effort in the LTE overlay network. The SON approach does not solve many
problems, as SON use cases are primarily aimed at radio-related issues in early deployment.
In addition to SON, many network operators will deploy DPI solutions or other end-to-end
monitoring solutions to oversee network performance.
Femtocell implementation makes this functionality crucial, since femtocells are intended to be
installed in the field by end users instead of trained network technicians. In a femtocell, the
typical functionality of a NodeB and a radio network controller are rolled into a single low-cost
consumer box. As a result, the configuration algorithms must take into account both the
radio parameters typically set for the NodeB and the handoff and transport setup that is
typically achieved in the RNC.
3GPP has defined several use cases for self-optimizing networks, including:
The end game for SONs is to achieve a network with truly self-optimizing performance, whereby
KPIs are tracked and adjustments are made to parameters in Layers 1 through 7 to maximize
efficiency and minimize cost. Yet, this Holy Grail is still several years away due to the technical
barriers to true optimization in multivendor network environments where the system is essentially
untestable until deployment in the field. Operators know that their networks are not prepackaged
solutions that are fully tested in a sterile lab environment. Therefore, many operators are very
reluctant to implement any optimization algorithms that take over control of the network.
Overall, ABI Research expects SONs to become normal practice for the configuration of
eNodeBs, as well as 2G and 3G base stations. Inventory and quick-response actions to recover
from failures will also be implemented, with steady growth in the sophistication of solutions over
the next five years. However, we anticipate that SONs will not result in fully automated networks.
Above the radio access layers, independent tools will provide more granular, user-friendly, and
actionable information than the 4G SON.
In 3G networks today, the OSS provided with the original network deployment is often seen as
inadequate, leading to a separate parallel monitoring system with probes at several interfaces in the
network chain. RAN probes and protocol analyzers provide data to a central graphical user interface
that displays more granular data than the OSS, allowing for more specific troubleshooting.
By positioning an optimization client in the smartphone, Mobidia or Venturi can optimize the TCP
link through either compression or a proxy for the TCP sessions. Up to 30% efficiency
improvement in the transport layer is possible through these techniques, though some of the
compression techniques will cause problems with any DPI tools that are deployed by the operator
since the normal data signature will be altered.
The client-based monitoring and optimization approach is quite new; it is currently emerging with
pre-revenue startup companies. Roughly twenty trials are underway worldwide to verify compliance
and interoperability with OSS tools, DPI, SONs, and other network-based optimization features.
A probe can be used temporarily for initial setup of a network, but increasingly the probes are being
implemented as a permanent, stationary feature of the network monitoring strategy. In a 3G network,
probes are often installed to monitor multiple locations throughout the system as follows:
• A passive air interface probe can monitor the Uu interface (between the handset and the
NodeB) for mobile throughput/error rate issues
• The Iub interface (between nodeB and RNC) can be monitored for call drop, handover,
signaling, and other Layers 2 through 4 KPIs
• The Iur interface (between RNCs) can be monitored for handover and neighbor list updates
• The Iu-CS and Iu-PS interfaces (between RNC and MSC/SGSN) can be monitored for transport
efficiency
• The Gn interface (between the SGSN and GGSN) can be monitored for transport efficiency
• The Gi interface (“north” of the GGSN, at the interface to the IP core network)
As the network migrates to include LTE, a few new interfaces are added, including:
A typical monitoring probe solution is usually employed to keep track of performance data.
Currently, probes are utilized as a troubleshooting tool rather than an automated optimization
tool, working together with a signaling or protocol analyzer to summarize network performance
data. Note that these probes are typically sold as a package, together with a graphical user
interface or integrated with the vendor’s OSS software.
Signaling analyzers can store analytical data representing a user’s data usage, trace calls,
configure a UMTS NodeB, or even record and store a voice call. This type of analyzer can be
implemented as a rack-mounted box with integrated storage, or it can reside on the packet core
network elements as a software application.
In summary, signaling and protocol analyzers offer operators a convenient user interface with
which they can see graphical representations of traffic loading patterns at Layers 2 through 4 and
a limited view into specific users and applications.
Current state-of-the-art DPI tools provide the ability to perform real-time analysis on high-capacity
data networks. At CTIA 2010, companies such as Allot Communications, CCPU, Procera, and
Tellabs were showing DPI capabilities up to 60 Gbps to 80 Gbps, which enables every packet to
be inspected in real time. DPI solutions have advanced to the extent that they can pick off
signaling traffic to identify the individual user device and/or NodeB associated with each data
packet. So far, DPI vendors appear to be focused on Layer 5-7 identification of applications and
session traffic, while protocol and signaling analyzers focus on Layer 3-4 efficiency. DPI is
presently moving toward the prioritization of traffic by application while other solutions are
focused on network/transport layer efficiency, independent of the data application.
Although DPI tools are becoming highly sophisticated and capable, the use of the data will
require time to mature. Mobile operators today typically use the analysis to understand data
traffic patterns (VoIP vs. web browsing vs. video, etc.), but the future evolution of these tools will
become more integrated with different levels of optimization. Consider the following:
• Certain types of network traffic will automatically be given higher priority (i.e., VoIP traffic may
require higher priority to avoid latency, while web browsing may be more tolerant).
• New pricing plans for end users will evolve based on the capability inherent in DPI engines in
order to separate the pricing for different kinds of data. Facebook fanatics may be willing to
pay a premium for each Facebook megabyte, but not for VoIP traffic. Conversely, other
users will have different priorities. The rich diversity of end-user preferences creates fertile
ground for DPI-based pricing plans to grow.
Note, though, that privacy is an issue that may inhibit the growth of DPI tools. So far, the general
public has not reacted to an operator’s capability to monitor traffic usage, but there is a risk that
privacy concerns in the wider consumer audience will impact an operator’s ability to prioritize
traffic. In addition, any ongoing discussion of “net neutrality” in regulatory circles could inhibit the
growth of DPI tools in the mobile data network.
The distributed SON architecture is best suited to use cases involving network element
self-configuration, which typically take place upon deployment of the system. Optimization of
efficiency, QoS, and adaptation to failure conditions are use cases that are expected in future
LTE systems but have less relevance in the early deployment phase. As a result, ABI Research
anticipates SONs will move from distributed architectures toward more centralization over time,
with different use cases handled in different ways.
(Source: Comarch)
This issue becomes especially acute in the case of multi-generational, multivendor systems.
3G optimization on Vendor A’s NodeB may conflict with 4G optimization on Vendor B’s
femtocell or Vendor C’s LTE infrastructure.
Concern over interoperability leads to a major question for mobile operators: Should they
combine SONs supplied by their major OEM suppliers with monitoring/optimization solutions
from third-party vendors?
The scope of endless possible issues between different vendors and algorithms is too large to
address in this report, but we can highlight a few of the known issues as examples:
• Any optimization in the Layer 2 or 3 packet protocols that compress data will render DPI
useless for monitoring the content at higher layers.
• RF frequencies and power levels can be adjusted by multiple algorithms as new cells are
configured or as interference avoidance is adjusted. Multiple algorithms that address Layer 1
and 2 radio settings may compete with each other, resulting in either constant oscillation in
the optimization algorithms or convergence (a non-optimal compromise).
• A firewall crash (or virtually any failure in the core network) can drop thousands of users at
one time. When the users re-register on the network, hundreds or thousands of data
connections will initiate at once, overloading the NodeB, RNC, HLR, and SGSN
simultaneously.
Overall, the concern about interference between algorithms is not well articulated in the
market today, but it remains a nagging doubt for operators. Vendors with partnerships and
pre-tested solutions will emerge over the next few years in order to satisfy customer anxiety.
To some degree, standardization of SONs and DPI will help to define the boundaries for each
solution. Nevertheless, the overall complexity of possible interactions between solutions is
so large that standardization and OSS software alone will not be enough. Growth of the
market for independent optimization solutions depends on each vendor’s ability to pre-test its
solutions in a wide variety of network environments.
Femtocells and Wi-Fi lie outside the scope of this report since they are consumer premises
solutions. In brief, though, the network can also offload its own data traffic. New solutions from
companies such as Stoke can recognize the originating application for network traffic and can
redirect the traffic directly to an Internet node instead of routing the traffic through a 3G
SGSN/GGSN or through an LTE media gateway.
Section 4.
KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS
4.1 Actix Ltd
Based in London, Actix is an independent private company that supplies OSS software. Actix
offered a self-optimizing network solution during early 2009 for LTE networks. The company
supports both network operators and OEM customers with software development related to
network management and optimization.
4.3 Alcatel-Lucent
Alcatel-Lucent supplies network infrastructure to the mobile market, and today’s organization
combines business groups from Alcatel, Lucent, and Nortel to cover GSM, CDMA, and
UMTS/HSPA technologies. The company offers its “Wireless Network Guardian” as a
“dynamic control” OSS solution, whereby Alcatel-Lucent can monitor and troubleshoot
multivendor networks. The company is focused on the multivendor aspect of this
monitoring/optimization product line, and has placed over twenty systems with network
operators globally over the past eighteen months. Overall, Alcatel-Lucent has been able to
move quickly into the monitoring/optimization space and will directly compete with nimble
smaller companies for a sizable share of the independent monitoring market.
4.5 Amdocs
As a large supplier of OSS for a wide variety of networks, Amdocs collects roughly $2.8 billion in
revenue annually. Only a small proportion of its revenue comes from the mobile infrastructure
market, due to the integrated bundles offered by mobile specialists such as Ericsson, Huawei,
and Nokia Siemens Networks. However, Amdocs has excellent know-how in defining the
customer experience and should be able to offer some useful tools for the
monitoring/management of higher layers (Layer 4 and above). Still, the company is likely to
continue to have difficulty capturing a major share of the general mobile OSS market.
4.7 Astellia
Astellia has supplied radio probes and related monitoring software to as many as 150 operators
worldwide, focusing on helping operators optimize their radio layer. The company collected
roughly $35 million in revenue during 2009, growing slightly despite the global recession. Astellia
currently supports 2G and 3G technologies and can aggregate KPIs from its own probes, as well
as information from network elements. Astellia is publicly traded with headquarters in France.
4.9 Comarch
Based in Warsaw, Comarch is an established supplier of OSS mediation software, taking
information from network elements or network management systems to present a unified view of
network performance. The company also focuses on inventory management and the use of
network configuration information to trace the root cause of network issues. Comarch is more
active in OSS outside of the mobile/wireless market, but has focused recent efforts on the
stronger growth in the mobile OSS market. Overall, Comarch will be challenged to compete with
large network equipment manufacturers and independent mobile specialist vendors.
4.11 Empirix
Privately held and headquartered near Boston, Empirix has roughly 280 employees. The
company provides quality assurance software for IP networks in multiple markets, ranging
from wireline telephony to cable networks and mobile networks. Empirix has had a slow start
in capturing major mobile customers and may be challenged to find a place in the mobile
market as LTE vendor relationships solidify.
4.12 Ericsson AB
Ericsson holds leading market share in the mobile network infrastructure market. Based in
Stockholm with over 80,000 employees worldwide, Ericsson maintains its leadership through
strong relationships with hundreds of network operators. The company supplies mobile radio
access, transport, and packet core infrastructure, including SON systems for LTE. In
addition, Ericsson provides OSS software solutions and services to assist operators in
monitoring and optimizing their networks. Roughly 38% of Ericsson revenue comes from the
services organization. It is interesting to note that in 2003, only 24% of revenue came from
services, showing a trend toward more service support – even though there is no official
company strategy to move in that direction.
Ericsson acquired Redback Networks in 2006, giving the company greater capability and market
share in IP routing. Recently, this organization has been able to provide Ericsson with DPI tools for
mobile networks as well, thus providing Ericsson with better diagnostic capability for mobile networks.
Note that Ericsson systems present an opportunity for independent vendors to enter with OSS
software, probes, and DPI solutions because the company’s infrastructure is perceived as
relatively inflexible for monitoring and optimization customization.
4.16 Mobidia
Mobidia is a pre-revenue startup company that focuses on optimization of the transport layer.
The company provides a proxy for TCP sessions that uses software loaded in the user’s
device and in the GGSN (or a separate box) to bypass the mobile transport layer and boost
efficiency. An estimated 15% to 30% efficiency increase in Layer 4 is typical for existing
smartphones and 3G networks. Mobidia has roughly 15 million connection manager clients
installed so far with one major global mobile operator.
4.17 Motorola
Despite a very strong history in mobile communications, Motorola has struggled to capture a
major position in 3G and LTE networks, leaving the company with a relatively small but loyal
customer group. Motorola plans to deploy an LTE network for KDDI in Japan, along with
Zain Saudi Arabia and others. The company has developed a distributed approach for SONs and
is pushing to gain advantage through adoption of TD-LTE as a major variant of the LTE standard.
4.21 Radcom
Based in Israel, Radcom is a specialist supplier of network monitoring solutions with expertise in
radio optimization. The company provides a system of probes and service monitoring software
that operates as a standalone solution, independent of the radio access network it is monitoring.
Radcom currently reports roughly $12 million in annual revenue, but sees strong revenue growth
coming in the radio optimization space. Its solutions attempt to analyze not just Layers 1 and 2,
but also the higher layers. Radcom’s system can pick off information about the origin or type of
data transmitted without DPI so that the company can optimize radio parameters. The limited
scope of the Radcom solution is likely to be successful, but only in its niche of radio optimization.
4.22 Spirent
Spirent focuses most of its effort on test solutions, instead of the monitoring and optimization of
live mobile networks. The company participates in the optimization of transport layer for mobile
networks, capturing information on throughput and packet loss through probes embedded in the
network. Spirent’s core expertise in the measurement of jitter and latency is useful in isolating
problems. However, in the fast-changing market for mobile monitoring and optimization, Spirent
may be left out of key segments if the company cannot move quickly to offer a more
comprehensive suite of probes and software.
ZTE offers SONs for the LTE standard, and has integrated some of the self-diagnostic features of
this technology into its existing GSM and 3G network solutions.
Agilent
13%
Others
29%
Anritsu
20%
Astellia
5%
Tektronix Comms
27% EXFO
6%
Section 5.
INDUSTRY COLLABORATION
5.1 3GPP Self-Organizing Networks
SON use cases are defined in the LTE (E-UTRAN) standards by the RAN3 working group,
beginning with Release 8. Additional SON functionality will be added to future releases. The
primary purpose behind the standardization of use cases is to ensure the interoperability of
SONs in multivendor environments.
Standardized SON features will expand in scope as the expected LTE network evolves over time.
Release 8 covers configuration features, as well as:
Release 9 is expected to address issues related to more mature LTE networks, including:
Technical report TR-36.902 codifies the proposals for Release 8 and Release 9 SON features.
http://www.3gpp.org/ftp/specs/html-INFO/36902.htm
5.2 SOCRATES
The SOCRATES project (Self-Optimisation and Self-Configuration in Wireless Networks) brings
together a non-profit consortium of companies, including Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks,
Vodafone, and others, with the aim to accelerate the adoption of technologies to enable SONs in
mobile networks. This organization creates a forum for discussion of use cases and architectures
outside of the political environment of the 3GPP standards process.
The SOCRATES project is supported by the European Union under the 7th Framework Program,
and is currently scheduled to run from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. The EU’s goal for
SOCRATES is to assert European leadership in mobile networks, coordinating a strategy for
global standardization to benefit European suppliers and network operators.
http://www.fp7-socrates.org/
Section 6.
MARKET FORECASTS
The overall outlook for wireless infrastructure involves slow growth, with severe price erosion
cutting into the profitability of RAN equipment and hardware for both 3G and LTE. However, the
market for network monitoring and optimization solutions includes several bright spots, as strong
growth is expected in technologies that improve efficiency and quality of service.
Chart 6.1 Mobile Monitoring & Optimization Equipment Revenue by Segment, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
1,400
UE Clients
1,200 Radio Test
Radio Probes
1,000 Routing/Transport
OSS
($ Millions)
800 DPI
Offloading
600
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In particular, tools that provide good end-to-end visibility (such as DPI and some OSS software)
and highly focused solutions for specific cost reductions (such as offloading or transport
optimization) will be adopted most quickly in both 3G and 4G networks. On the other hand, SON
solutions will compete with independent radio optimization solutions, stunting the growth of
independent probe-based monitoring tools in the radio layer. UE clients will see solid growth from
almost zero in 2010, with the potential to become a mainstream solution if lightweight client
applications are proven to be effective in end-to-end optimization.
Chart 6.2 Mobile Monitoring & Optimization Equipment Revenue by Region, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
1,200
Asia-Pacific
North America
1,000 Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Africa
800
South America
($ Millions)
Middle East
600
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Currently, Japan and Western Europe represent the strongest markets for advanced
monitoring equipment, with the United States catching up quickly. Developing markets lag
behind, as users in Eastern Europe, Africa, South America, and the Middle East use less
mobile data than power users in more mature networks. North America’s growth wave is
taking place earlier than other regions and should flatten out in 2014-2015, when the basic
monitoring hardware for most LTE networks has been fully deployed.
Over the next five years, ABI Research expects the Asian market to overtake North America
and Western Europe for advanced monitoring and optimization equipment. This forecast is
due to the higher expected subscriber base and higher growth in mobile Internet data in
Asian countries without widespread broadband service.
The five-year outlook for developing markets in Africa, South America, and the Middle East lags
behind Asia. Quality-of-service requirements in these emerging markets will not demand the
robust monitoring solutions that Japan, Korea, and China will implement.
Chart 6.3 Mobile Monitoring & Optimization Equipment by Customer Type, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
100%
90%
80%
Netw ork Operator
70% OEM
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABI Research’s forecast includes radio test equipment used for monitoring emissions and power
levels for GSM and 2G CDMA networks, which represented roughly 40% of the 2009 market.
Excluding radio test equipment, almost all of 2010 monitoring and optimization revenue will be
tied to 3G networks, with 90% of the solutions monitoring U-TRAN (UMTS/HSPA/HSPA+)
networks and 10% monitoring EV-DO networks. Operators are clearly focused on mobile data
optimization, and spend far less effort on mobile voice optimization nowadays.
In addition, many independent solutions such as OSS and DPI are in deployment on 3G
networks today, but will be used for LTE networks later. ABI Research’s forecast categorizes
the monitoring/optimization solutions according to the initial primary usage, even if the same
solution is used for multiple generations over time.
Chart 6.4 Mobile Monitoring & Optimization Equipment, 2G/3G/4G, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
100%
90%
80%
4G
70%
3G
60%
2G
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
It is unclear today whether every smartphone will need a monitoring client installed. In cases
such as the Venturi Wireless optimization protocol or the Mobidia TCP proxy, the step toward
transport optimization requires a client on every smartphone. Simpler monitoring concepts may
not need every user to act as a mobile “drive test.” As the market for client-based solutions
develops, the choice between monitoring and full optimization will dictate the scale of growth.
Chart 6.5 Mobile UE Clients for Network Monitoring Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
60
Middle East
50 South America
Africa
40 Eastern Europe
($ Millions)
Western Europe
30 North America
Asia-Pacific
20
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: Enterprise sales of clients to monitor mobile web traffic or web site performance are not
included in ABI Research’s forecast. The above chart refers to client-based monitoring and
optimization solutions and includes sales of the smartphone client software, as well as any
accompanying server software in the network.
LTE-capable test equipment is available in the market today, so sales are shifting quickly from
2G/3G test gear to the full capability. Even if the equipment is used for 2G or 3G systems,
operators planning for the future want LTE functionality built in.
Chart 6.6 RAN Portable Test Equipment Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
250
200
Middle East
South America
150
Africa
($ Millions)
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
100 North America
Asia-Pacific
50
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Western Europe and North America have represented the majority of the RF test equipment
market for many years, due to the attention paid in Western countries to emissions regulations.
Essentially every base station and every NodeB is tested for compliance to spurious emissions
targets. Over the next five years, ABI Research expects the Asian, Eastern European, and
emerging markets to begin monitoring compliance with emissions regulations, as well as
optimizing power levels and antenna tilt in the field for improved coverage and capacity.
The market for portable RAN test equipment will be essentially flat because the market has
already grown during 2G and 3G operations to involve multiple test boxes for each
technician. New sales will include new functionality for LTE/WiMAX testing, but the price
differences and volume increases will be flat. At a radio level, the new standards represent
business as usual, with new features added to the box.
As operators consider deployment of LTE networks with self-organizing features, the penetration
of probes in Layers 1 and 2 for 2G and 3G networks has grown less rapidly than other network
features. Operators are unsure of the eventual scope of self-optimizing LTE networks and how
their future systems will be integrated. LTE networks may, in fact, need fewer probes for
monitoring and troubleshooting than 3G networks. Thus, the likely outcome over the next five
years will be slow growth for RAN probes at 5% to 10% per year.
The dominant Western European/American market for RAN probes will grow incrementally, with
other regions increasingly investing in improved diagnostics as operators in developing countries
dive into multivendor networks.
Chart 6.7 RAN Monitoring Probes Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
160
140
120
Middle East
100 South America
($ Millions)
Africa
80 Eastern Europe
Western Europe
60 North America
Asia-Pacific
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Monitoring 3G data sessions has also become a major concern for network operators, as iPhones and
other web-friendly smartphones are driving a huge increase in data signaling traffic. Nobody expects
SON to address this issue for 3G networks or even early LTE networks, so the independent market
for monitoring solutions should see strong growth over the next five years. Growth in Layer 3 and 4
solutions should scale along with data traffic growth, as the capacity handled by monitoring/
optimization solutions will grow quickly in conjunction with the growth in data usage.
Western Europe, North America, and Japan are the strongest markets for transport
optimization. Growth in China and India will take place later as mobile broadband begins to
comprise a significant portion of traffic.
700
Middle East
Asia-Pacific
300
200
100
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chart 6.9 OSS Monitoring/Optimization Tools Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
1,200
Middle East
South America
1,000
Africa
Eastern Europe
800 Western Europe
North America
($ Millions)
600 Asia-Pacific
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Asia, Western Europe, and North America all represent strong markets for high-capacity DPI
tools that examine every packet. Due to the exponential growth of mobile data traffic in these
regions, DPI revenue will also grow quickly. LTE deployment in highly developed countries
should accelerate DPI adoption even more as operators prepare for their customers using
LTE as a broadband replacement.
Chart 6.10 Mobile DPI Infrastructure Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
1,400
Middle East
1,200 South America
Africa
1,000 Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
600
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Femtocells (not included in the forecast for “offloading” as an optimization solution) are distinct in
that femtocells will not sense the content and divert individual packets to the Internet; instead,
femtocells divert all traffic to the Internet.
Offloading is likely to be most popular with network operators that feel capable of implementing
third-party solutions. In Asia and developing countries, operators do not have the expertise to feel
comfortable in implementing a new solution, so the growth of offloading solutions will be slower in
those regions. North American operators and multinational operators based in Europe and advanced
Asian economies are conducting trials now, and ABI Research expects strong growth in those regions
through 3G networks over the next three years. LTE networks are likely to be outfitted with offloading
solutions on deployment, so the 3G market is the primary focus for now.
Chart 6.11 Mobile Backhaul Offloading Infrastructure Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
180
100
North America
80 Asia-Pacific
60
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Section 7.
RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 For Network Operators
Every network operator has seen the tremendous rise in mobile data consumption, but very
few operators have adequate visibility to pinpoint the source of bottlenecks in their networks.
Operators need to develop a comprehensive monitoring and optimization strategy in order to
avoid costly mistakes and delays.
The first operators that push through the painful process of integrating DPI tools, network diagnostics,
and new billing systems with tiered pricing structures will reap the benefits of increased customer
traction. Operators should stay focused on the end goal: increasing average revenue per user
through multiple data options with the infrastructure and policy engines to match.
Network equipment manufacturers can differentiate by folding all possible optimization solutions
into a multivendor, comprehensive optimization suite that has clear priorities. Competing
independent solutions will struggle with interoperability issues. Thus, the top-tier OEMs can
succeed by testing hundreds of combinations of network equipment and optimization solutions
and refining their overall set of algorithms to consistently adapt to complex networks.
As network OEMs increasingly move into managed services, each company should pay attention to
keeping network optimization solutions lined up with its services business strategy. Network OEMs
may find that a unique approach to optimization is a differentiator in their services business.
Probe vendors should partner with network infrastructure manufacturers to drive the use of
probes into LTE hardware. Close integration with top-tier OEMs will drive the sales of monitoring
equipment more quickly than competing for attention with up-and-coming SON solutions.
In transport optimization, suppliers should stick to a focused strategy and avoid extending solutions
into areas that optimize multiple other layers simultaneously. Interoperability with other optimization
systems will be best served when the transport compression or session protocols are predictable.
OSS vendors that can adapt quickly to an extremely wide array of network configurations will rise
above the pack. Most customers have, by now, experienced limitations in network visibility for
mobile data diagnostics. Therefore, the network operators are looking for OSS solutions that can
drill down to the root cause in troubleshooting scenarios, regardless of the infrastructure used.
Offloading vendors simply need to establish a track record of reliability in the field. The market
demand is inescapable, so simple offloading solutions that interfere as little as possible with other
network diagnostics and optimization will dominate this new segment.
Section 8.
COMPANY DIRECTORY
Actix Ltd (United Kingdom) Facebook
www.actix.com www.facebook.com
Section 9.
ACRONYMS
2G Second Generation Cellular Services
GW Gateway
IP Internet Protocol
IP Intellectual Property
PC Personal Computer
RF Radio Frequency
TB Terabyte
UE User Equipment
Table of Contents
Section 1. ........................................................................................................................................ 2
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 2
1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 2
1.2 Market Drivers......................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Technology.............................................................................................................................. 3
1.4 Outlook.................................................................................................................................... 4
1.5 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 4
1.6 Conclusions............................................................................................................................. 5
Section 2. ........................................................................................................................................ 6
Market Overview............................................................................................................................. 6
2.1 Networks Evolve into Optimization ......................................................................................... 7
2.2 Key Performance Indicators.................................................................................................... 8
2.3 R&D/Testing/Deploying the Network .................................................................................... 10
2.4 Monitoring the Network ......................................................................................................... 10
2.5 Optimizing Performance ....................................................................................................... 11
2.5.1 Cost Reductions................................................................................................................. 11
2.5.1.1 CAPEX Reduction........................................................................................................... 11
2.5.1.2 OPEX Reduction ............................................................................................................. 12
2.5.2 Quality Improvement .......................................................................................................... 12
2.6 Optimizing Revenue.............................................................................................................. 13
2.7 Test Equipment Market ......................................................................................................... 13
2.8 Probes................................................................................................................................... 14
2.9 Protocol Analyzers ................................................................................................................ 16
2.10 Impact of Managed Services on Optimization .................................................................... 17
2.11 Operations Support Systems .............................................................................................. 18
Section 3. ...................................................................................................................................... 20
Technology ................................................................................................................................... 20
3.1 Self-Organizing Networks ..................................................................................................... 21
3.1.1 Self-Configuring Networks ................................................................................................. 21
3.1.2 Self-Optimizing Networks................................................................................................... 22
3.1.3 Self-Operating Networks.................................................................................................... 22
3.1.4 Self-Healing Networks ....................................................................................................... 22
3.1.5 Trends in Self-Organizing Networks .................................................................................. 23
3.2 Monitoring and Optimization Tools ....................................................................................... 23
3.2.1 Smartphone Clients............................................................................................................ 24
3.2.2 Network Probes.................................................................................................................. 25
3.2.3 Signaling and Protocol Analyzers ...................................................................................... 26
3.2.4 Deep Packet Inspection ..................................................................................................... 26
3.3 Centralized vs. Distributed Optimization ............................................................................... 27
3.4 Interoperability for Multiple Optimizing Algorithms................................................................ 28
3.5 Mobile Offloading .................................................................................................................. 29
Section 4. ...................................................................................................................................... 30
Key Industry Players.................................................................................................................... 30
4.1 Actix Ltd ................................................................................................................................ 30
4.2 Agilent Technologies............................................................................................................. 30
4.3 Alcatel-Lucent ....................................................................................................................... 30
4.4 Allot Communications ........................................................................................................... 30
Section 5. ...................................................................................................................................... 36
Industry Collaboration................................................................................................................. 36
5.1 3GPP Self-Organizing Networks........................................................................................... 36
5.2 SOCRATES .......................................................................................................................... 36
Section 6. ...................................................................................................................................... 37
Market Forecasts.......................................................................................................................... 37
6.1 Regional Outlook................................................................................................................... 38
6.2 OEM Market vs. Direct Sales to Operators........................................................................... 39
6.3 Outlook by Network Generation (2G/3G/4G)........................................................................ 40
6.4 Smartphone Client Outlook ................................................................................................... 41
6.5 Radio Test Equipment Outlook ............................................................................................. 42
6.6 Outlook for Probes in the RAN.............................................................................................. 43
6.7 Outlook for Transport Monitoring/Optimization ..................................................................... 44
6.8 Mobile OSS Outlook.............................................................................................................. 45
6.9 DPI Outlook........................................................................................................................... 46
6.10 Offloading Outlook .............................................................................................................. 47
Section 7. ...................................................................................................................................... 48
Recommendations ....................................................................................................................... 48
7.1 For Network Operators.......................................................................................................... 48
7.2 For Network Equipment Manufacturers ................................................................................ 48
7.3 For Monitoring/Optimization Solution Vendors ..................................................................... 48
Section 8. ...................................................................................................................................... 50
Company Directory ...................................................................................................................... 50
Section 9. ...................................................................................................................................... 51
Acronyms...................................................................................................................................... 51
Scope of Study ............................................................................................................................. 58
Sources and Methodology .......................................................................................................... 59
Notes ............................................................................................................................................. 59
Please be aware that an Excel worksheet containing all market forecasts accompanies this
document. When downloading this report as a PDF from the ABI Research web site, please
check to see if the Excel worksheet is also available for download. If you have any questions
regarding this, please contact our client relations department.
TABLES
Table 1-1. Mobile Network Monitoring & Optimization Equipment Revenue, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
Table 6-1. Mobile Monitoring & Optimization Equipment Revenue by Region, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
Table 6-2. Mobile UE Clients for Network Monitoring Revenue by Region, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
Table 6-3. RAN Portable Test Equipment Revenue by Region, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
Table 6-4. RAN Monitoring Probes Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
Table 6-7. Mobile DPI Infrastructure Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
Table 6-8. Mobile Backhaul Offloading Infrastructure Revenue by Region, World Market,
Forecast: 2009 to 2015
SCOPE OF STUDY
In researching and reporting on mobile monitoring and optimization, ABI Research limited its
scope to the solutions available as products in the merchant market. Network equipment
manufacturers with bundled solutions for infrastructure equipment and OSS software are not
covered. However, adaptations of the OSS solutions offered separately by network OEMs for
use with multivendor networks are included in the body of the report and the market forecasts.
A wide scope was used in looking at multiple solutions and segments, ranging from Layer 1
through Layer 7 and from smartphone clients to hardware and server-based software.
ABI Research compiled a comprehensive overview of the technologies used for
network monitoring and optimization. Portable test equipment was included to the extent that
the equipment is used for diagnostic monitoring and troubleshooting of an operating network
and not simply for initial system setup.
Self-organizing networks are included in the scope of the technology description in this study
since they represent an important piece of an operator’s overall strategy for network optimization.
Note that the self-organizing network is generally sold to a wireless operator by a network
equipment manufacturer. Therefore, ABI Research did not include a forecast for SONs in the
merchant market quantified in this report.
The technology scope covers descriptions of monitoring and optimization techniques, including
the interfaces and network elements to be monitored and the actions taken for optimization.
Problems with interoperability between optimization solutions are described at a high level, with a
few specific examples for illustration. Details on the specific implementation of individual
products are omitted for the sake of brevity.
Note that business solutions, including business support system software and other tools for
tracking and billing the wireless subscriber, are not included in the scope of this report, though
these solutions can involve some monitoring and optimization.
An analyst was assigned to coordinate and prepare this Research Report. Research and query
specialists helped lay the data and information groundwork for the analyst, who also developed a
focused interview strategy.
ABI Research teams follow a meticulous process when examining each market area under study.
The three basic steps in that process are: information collection, information organization, and
information analysis.
The key element in ABI Research’s information collection process is developing primary sources,
that is, talking to executives, engineers, and marketing professionals associated with a particular
industry. It is from these conversations that market conditions and trends begin to emerge, free
from media hype.
Analysts use secondary sources as well, including industry periodicals, trade group reports,
government and private databases, corporate financial reports, industry directories, and other
resources.
Analysts’ conclusions take several forms. The text addresses hard data and well-defined trends
and is supported by forecast tables and charts. The text also addresses issues and trends that
are difficult to quantify and present in neat, tabular form. Lying at the margins of an industry, they
are often precursors of the next technology wave.
For this report on mobile network monitoring and optimization, the ABI Research analyst
interviewed multiple network operators, network equipment manufacturers, and suppliers of
specific test equipment, software, monitoring solutions, and optimization solutions. Each
company was asked to project a view of its market and the driving forces behind future growth.
The forecast was derived from company reports and network operator comments. It is
segmented generally by Open System Interconnection (OSI) layer, since most solutions address
the RAN in Layers 1 and 2, the core network efficiency in Layers 3 and 4, or application efficiency
in Layers 5 through 7. Regional forecasts and other market segmentation were derived from
specific comments from suppliers and regional operators.
NOTES
CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula:
CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer
years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter
timeframes may be given as well.
Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues,
shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are
expressed in year 2010 US dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100
due to rounding.
Published 2Q 2010
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Exceptions: Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this report
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