South Korea Oct 2010 Walter Derzko V3

Global HR Forum 2010
Seoul, South Korea

Oct 26-28, 2010
New Emerging Business Opportunities;

What makes us rich? What do we have to do to win in this
dynamic world?
Workshop Presentation v4
By
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy,
Toronto
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Topics & Format
• 9.45am Part 1-Designing and using Smart Technologies-
45 min with questions
• 10.30 Break
• 11.30 am Part 2-Opportunity recognition as a process ,
the Opportunity Clinic -60 minutes with questions
• 12.30 Lunch
• 2:15pm Part3 -Designing winning business models
and the cognitive/ thinking skills to accelerate
opportunity recognition -45 minutes with questions
• 3.00 Break

As we go through this
presentation…..think about 4 things
1) What one item did I find fascinating about smart
technologies? What’s my one take-away idea?
2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /

workplace today?
3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?
4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would like

more information on?

What makes us rich?
Part 1-Designing and Using
Smart Technologies
by
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy
Toronto
Insights come from past 35 years
• Lateral –Thinker-in-residence-McLuhan Program
in Culture and Technology, SGS, U of Toronto
• Director Idea Lab at the Design Exchange (DX)
Toronto
• Lecturer-Certificate Program in Entrepreneurship
and Innovation, U of T
• Senior Fellow –Strategic Innovation Lab, S-Lab,
OCADU, Toronto
• Lecturer- MA program in Strategic Foresight and
Innovation, OCAD University in Toronto

Strategic
Innovation
Lab (sLab)
A research centre
for strategic foresight
and innovation at
OCAD University,
Toronto, Canada
Master of Design in
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
Canada’s first
strategic foresight
graduate program
Smart Technologies in the Smart
Economy
6 Overview Topics
• What is a smart technology?
• Definition
• Framework & Categories
• Examples
• Impacts and Consequences of Smart Technologies
• Roadmaps
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. wderzko@pathcom.com

Nanotech? Biotech ?Info ?
• Nanotech? Biotech ?Infotech ?/Convergence?
• What’s the common denominator?

• Not technology that’s important, new
designer capabilities
• Things become smarter; more intelligent
• Changing landscape
• New ground rules
Definition
• What Makes a Object / System Smart?
• Generally speaking, if a system /machine

/artifact does something that we think an
intelligent person can do, we consider that
object to be smart.

Misnomers
• Smart Car ? Intelligent or
Stylish?
• Various adjectives: smart,

intelligent, active, dynamic,
wise
The WV "Golf Gti 53 plus 1" has radar
and laser sensors to "read" the road
and send the details back to its
computer brain.
Drivers Wanted …to….Drivers Optional

How do I know if I have
a smart technology?
You can't paint all
products with the
same "smart" brush.
•Recognizing that some products or

technologies are smarter then others, we
have developed an intelligence scale to
distinguish between levels of
“smartness" or intelligence.

Intelligence Adapting: Modifying Behavior to Fit the
Level (1) Environment
Intelligence Sensing: Bringing Awareness to
Level (2) Everyday Things
Intelligence Inferring: Drawing Conclusions from
Level (3) Rules and Observations
Intelligence Learning: Using Experience to Improve
Level (4) Performance
Intelligence Anticipating: Thinking and Reasoning about
Level (5) What to Do Next
Intelligence Self-creating, Able to reproduce itself
Level (6)
Intelligence Self- Ability for components to self-
Level (6) organizing organize
Intelligence Self- Ability to replicate
Level (6) sustaining components
(A)
Intelligence Self- Ability to process information
Level (6) sustaining
(B)
Intelligence Self- Ability to steadily consume
Level (6) sustaining energy from the environment
(C)
© 2005-2006 Walter Derzko Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

Intelligence Level (1)
Adapting: Modifying Behaviour to Fit the Environment
• Adaptive networks, GPS, directory services,

collaborative filtering, humanized interfaces,
• Basic adapting objects i.e smart clothes

Sensing: Bringing Awareness to Everyday Things
• Sensors, embedded systems (smart badges,

smart bricks, smart bridges, smart levees,)
smart environments, smart materials (smart
cement, packaging), smart cameras, smart
doors

Inferring: Drawing Conclusions from Rules & Observations
• Expert systems, knowledge bases, inference

engines, fuzzy logic, basic AI
• Darpa Grand Challenge --Driverless Car Race-
front end logistics

Learning: Using Experience to Improve Performance
• Subfields of Advanced AI; Case Based

Reasoning (CBR), neural nets, genetic
programming,
• intelligent agents , AUV’s, exoskeletons
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy , Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. wderzko@pathcom.com

Anticipating: Thinking & Reasoning about What to Do Next
• goal-directed systems, robots, artificial life

software,
• Smart mind-controlled wheelchair
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy. Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667 wderzko@pathcom.com

Intelligence Level (6) Self-Organizing: Self-generating
at the cellular or nano level
• Self-organizing systems, complex awareness,

cognition, self-reproduction and self-healing,
if injured
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

Smart Technology Impacts?
Marshall McLuhan’s Tetrad
1) What gets 2) What gets
Enhanced? Retrieved?
Brought Back
3) What gets 4) At the extreme,

Obsolesced? What gets Flipped
Left Behind? or Reversed?
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy. Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

Tetrad Automobile & Infrastructure
1) What gets 2) What gets
Enhanced? Retrieved?
Brought Back
3) What gets 4) At the extreme,

Obsolesced? What gets Flipped
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667;
Left Behind? wderzko@pathcom.com or Reversed?
• Pervasive, Ubiquitous
• Disruptive (think computers & secretaries)
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

• Pervasive, Ubiquitous
• Disruptive
• As great as the emergence of writing,
language & the PC
• Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects
• Creeping up silently on society
Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

• Pervasive, Ubiquitous, Disruptive

• As great as the emergence of writing, language &
the PC
• What controls /regulations do we have over
adoption?
• Erroneous assumption that everything will be
positive
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com
• Pervasive, Ubiquitous Disruptive
• As great as the emergence of writing, language & the PC
• What controls do we have over adoption?
• Erroneous assumption that everything will be positive
• Google “smart technology” July 27, 2006> 300 Million hits ;
• Oct 20, 2010 > 15,300 hits in 24 hours
• No standards, no regulations , fragmented market

• Pervasive, Ubiquitous Disruptive
• As great as the emergence of writing, language & the PC
• What controls do we have over adoption?
• Erroneous assumption that everything will be positive
• Google “smart technology” July 27, 2006> 300 Million hits
• No standards, regulations yet
• Not in the public mindset yet
• Lack of public discourse,
• Very few media sources have grasped the social significance
yet
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com
How will the Smart Economy evolve?
Thought Leaders
Australia China EC France India S. Korea Mediterranean
Canada The Netherlands Germany Nordic Singapore
Switzerland Taiwan United Kingdom United States

Spain Greece Italy
Portugal
Denmark Norway Finland Sweden
17 Countries/Regions
12th Micro-Machine Summit in Beijing, China April,2006

(….like the World Cup for MEMS)
Walter Derzko;
Walter The Smart
Derzko; Economy
Smart Economy Blog
Toronto,
Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com
SOUTH KOREA
Chief Delegate Young-Ho Cho
Delegates Jong-Uk Bu, Sang-Rok Lee, Yong-Soo Oh,
Observers Il Doh
14th Micromachine Summit 2008 April 30 - May 3, 2008, Daejeon, Korea
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic © * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
How will the Smart Economy evolve?
Thought Leaders
Micromachine Summit 2010 (16th) April 28 - April 30, 2010,

Dortmund, Germany
Micromachine Summit 2009 (15th) May 5 - May 8, 2009,

Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Micromachine Summit 2008 (14th) April30 - May 3, 2008,

Daejeon, Korea
Micromachine Summit2007 (13th) April 27 - 29, 2007, Venice, Italy

Source: http://www.micromachinesummit.org/

EC Roadmap

A larger MEMS object A mite next to a gear set
produced using MEMS
Courtesy: Sandia National Laboratories,
Courtesy: 12th Micro-Machine Summit in SUMMiTTM Technologies,
Beijing, China April,2006 www.mems.sandia.gov

4 th Wave of IT: Forrester

Source: Philips Medical Systems (7th FWP refers to the European Union's Seventh Framework Program)

Nano Building Blocks
17 Nano-related Terms to Learn
• Nanoparticles • Pristine Fullerenes
• Nanocomposites • Fullerene derivatives
• Nanocapsules • Carbon Nanotubes (SWNT
• Nanoporous materials & MWNT)
• Nanofibres • Carbon Nanohorns
• Thin Films and Surface • Quantum Dots
(20 nm wide and 8 nm in height)
Layers • Nano-onions
• Nanoparticulate • Dendrimers
Coatings
• Nanowires
• Nano plumbing
• Nanomagnets

Toronto, Canada 416-819—9667; wderzko@pathcom.com
Imagine, it’s now October, 2025
New Capabilities?
New Technologies?

Dilemma ?
• We are trying to plan for:

– Technologies that have not been invented
– Jobs that don’t exist yet
– Problems that we can’t anticipate yet
– Applications that we have yet to imagine
– Risks that we can’t quantify yet
– Viable systems that haven’t been designed yet
– and Creative and Systems type thinking, that most
people are not use to doing
Tools & Strategies
• Incorporate Science and Technology Horizon
Scanning  Decision-making & Opportunity
spotting
• Design Issues Management processes  Policy
development
• Organize Scenario planning workshops &
Technology Roadmaps  to handle uncertainty
• Joint Foresight Exercises within industry &
government on NanoBioSmartTech convergence
• Conduct Opportunity Audits & Clinics  jump on
competition
Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy
Remember….Homework…..make a
mental/written note about 4 things
2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /

workplace today?

more on?

The End-Part 1 of 3
• Thank you for your attention
• Happy to answer any questions
• Visit the Smart Economy blog
http://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com
• Watch for the upcoming books on
Opportunities and smart technologies .
• Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-

819-9667 or email
wderzko@pathcom.com or
walter.derzko@utoronto.ca

New Emerging Business
Opportunities;
What makes us rich?
Part 2 -The Opportunity Clinic
By
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy
Toronto

The Opportunity Clinic
• How to become more opportunity savvy?
• Approaches to opportunity recognition
• Examples of Opportunity Scenarios

Definition
• “An opportunity is a course of action that is
possible and obviously worth pursuing.”
• “Not a high risk speculation but something

worth pursuing and obvious in its benefits”
• Problems -> solutions

• Opportunities -> benefits
Opportunity Clinic™ Smart Economy 416-819-9667
More quotes about Opportunities
• ‘Just before it comes into existence, every

business is an opportunity that someone has
seen”
• “An opportunity is as real an ingredient in

business as raw materials, labor or finance-but
it only exists when you can see it.”
• Often Negative image-”opportunism”

“Chance favors the prepared mind”
L Pasteur
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic © * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com
Myths about Opportunities &
Recessions
• Opportunities occur only in boom times
• Most of the world’s millionaires and

billionaires made their fortunes in
recessionary/ depression periods over the last
200 years, according to Malcolm Gladwell in
Outliers

Myth
Opportunities occur only in boom times
• Sir Richard Branson thinks that the next generation of self-made
billionaires will emerge from the wreckage of this recession.
• Sir Richard said: "There are a lot of Richard Bransons that will come out of
the next three or four years."
• The Virgin founder says that the depth of the recession and its impact on
once-impregnable industries has given entrepreneurs their best
opportunity in generations.”
• "Fortunes are made out of recessions…..A lot of entrepreneurs get going
in the economic depths because the barriers to entry are lower," he said
--Branson says recession is time of opportunity The Times. London (UK): Mar 9, 2009. pg. 36

Opportunities happens in downturns too-even more
so
Businesses formed Innovations launched
Strategic shifts made Disruptors surged
Source: Scott Anthony

The Opportunity Clinic
•What new insights
do you get from this
cartoon about
opportunities?
•List as many as
possible
•Record is 26

The
Opportunity
Clinic
Insights from the Business Offering Generic Concept How do I leverage this
cartoon about (concrete idea) (concept behind the concept even more?
Opportunities? idea)
Fisherman is using the Sell him the right bait How do I attract How can I become even
wrong bait? opportunities to come to more opportunity
me? vs. me looking for sensitive? Alert? An
them? opportunity magnet?
Fisherman was late for Sell him a calendar and Opportunity window Do I have a portfolio of
the fishing season? reminder service timing is critical Oppn Windows for each
Oppn windows open business cycle phase?
/close
Opportunity is a matter of perception

Opportunities exist everywhere

Opportunities exist everywhere,
even at the bottom of a recession

Opportunities exist everywhere
How do you find

opportunities in
a no-growth or
a slow-growth
economy?
Unstated main
concern of
upcoming G8-20
summit
Definition of an Opportunity Space
• “If an opportunity falls within our opportunity

space, then we can act upon it.”
• Opportunity space includes all the changes,

decisions and choices that we can make, as
well as the assets we are using and actions we
can take.

Definition of an Opportunity Space (or
Opportunity Bubble)
• “I can make changes in these areas.”
• “These are the decisions I can make.”
• “These choices are up to me.”
• “I can take actions of this sort.”
• “I have the use of these assets.”
• Personal, department, corporate, national,

international

My Opportunity Space today/in
this situation?
• A person involved in giving seminars/workshops to
executives or entrepreneurs might describe his/her
opportunity space as follows:
• An opportunity to:
– Alter my presentation & try new methods
– Collect new examples and stories for future use
– Study the thinking of those people in attendance
– Test audience reactions to new concepts
– Clarify one’s own ideas as they are explained or defended
– Have one’s own ideas changed, challenged or improved
– Observe cultural differences to opportunity recognition in
South Korea
My Opportunity Space today?
• (Continued )An opportunity to:
– Make contacts
– Provide contacts
– Make new friends
– Arrange further consulting work or in-house training
– Learn about different types of industries
– Learn about the business climate in different industries in
South Korea
– Recommend or praise a colleague with potential for
reciprocity
– Use a captive audience to try new ideas or approaches
– Find out which promotions were most effective in bringing
participants to the seminar
Niche Opportunities
• Companies often have a Plan A, but no Plan B or C
• “When a new venture does succeed, more often
than not it is in a market other than the one it was
originally intended to serve, with products and
services not quite those with which it had set out,
bought in large part by customers it did not even
think of when it started, and used for a host of
purposes besides the ones for which the products
were first designed.”
• Show me 20 things that could go wrong with your
idea?
• Source: Drucker, P. (1985). Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Practice and Principles. New
York: Harper & Row. ( p. 189)
Smart Economy * Toronto * 1-416-819-9667
Plan A , but
no Plan B or
Plan C
HBR June 2008

What do these businesses have in common?

Nostalgia Opportunity Window-- Class Exercise #1
•Think of other nostalgia examples of up-scaled /adult versions

from fond memories that you had/ remember as a child?
•What did you enjoy as a child that could be turned into an adult
version and a resulting business opportunity?

Problem-solving vs Paradox-unraveling
Opportunity Windows
Traditional Problem Solving Paradigm; look

for solutions
Values
Beliefs
Emotions
Clash Assumptions
Paradox, Anomaly, Contradictions; design

new systems
Paradox Opportunity Window
•Tertec in Markham Ontario

•Divested their non-core video kiosk business in previous
recession.
•Had 40 experienced staff and CNC machines
•Dilemma? Do I Frame as problem? (optimize ROI) or as a
paradox?
•How to I get the CNC equipment off my balance sheet but still
retain the benefits of these assets for my business?

Examples of Opportunity Scenarios
• Cast Away / Left Behind Opportunities
• Opportunities that are ignored or discarded by
the mainstream players who are pursuing
dominant trends (see Trends Opportunities)
• Situation Opportunities
• Unique or repeating situations or events that
present opportunities

• Shortage Opportunities
• Products or service or staff shortages that
present opportunities to fill gap or design
substitutes
• Core Technology Transfer Opportunities
• Shifting core technology capabilities from an
obvious but recession-prone application to a
less obvious, but more profitable one

• Variable / Dynamic Value Opportunities
• Opportunities that change in value for
different customers depending on a significant
attribute that they value
• Paradox Opportunities
• Opportunities that result from your ability to
untangle and offer a solution to a vexing
industry paradox, anomaly or contradiction

• Synergy Opportunities
• Combining previously un-associated
components, attributes or features that offer
greater value combined than separate
• Bundling Opportunities/Un-Bundling
Opportunities
• Opportunities resulting from players coupling
or uncoupling their product or service offering

Taxonomy for Opportunity Recognition
(SARASVATHY, DEW., VELAMURI, & VENKATARAMAN, 2003)
Sarasvathy Suggested three Views of Entrepreneurship/Opportunity Processes

• Allocative
• Discovery
• Creativity
• Synthesis with Literature Becomes
• Recognized or Scanned (look for)
• Discovered (find)
• Enacted or Designed (make or do)
• Choice of Model
• Recognized (Ardichvili, Cardozo, & Ray, 2003)
• Discovered (Fiet, 2002; Fiet, Clouse, & Norton, 2004)
• Enacted (Sarasvathy, 2001; Sarason, Dean, & Dillard, 2006)

Source: Ed Leach; Dalhousie University

Source: Ed Leach; Dalhousie University

Opportunity Recognition Process?
• Search, scan
• Discover
• Design or enact
• Copy Transfer

Enacted or Designed Opportunity-Look for non-consumers with an
important job they are struggling to get done
100%+
Penetration
40%+
Penetration#
10%
Penetration
ChotuKool: Nano refigerator by

Source: Scott Anthony Innosight
Opportunity Playbook
What if an entrepreneur or CEO had a playbook or menu
of Opportunity windows, patterns or scenarios that they
could use to spot, discover or design new opportunity
spaces for their business ideas, products or services?
That how the Opportunity Clinic idea was born
-Traditional MBA programs cover about 12 opportunity

scenarios or windows (see next slide)
-The Opportunity Clinic has over 400 opportunity
scenarios in its database
-45 opportunity windows selected for recession/post
recession & challenging economic times
-Opportunity-45 scenario to drive your business in challenging
economic times by J Wiley & Sons
Why we miss Opportunities?
1. We fail to see opportunities that are worthwhile to purse-
we are just not looking, ignore significant information,
ignore the unexpected, too content, too busy with day-to-
day problems.
2. Strong commitment but we gaze in the wrong direction-
missing opportunity sensitive areas (OSA) (operations &
TQM vs Business models)
3. Looking in right direction but we cannot identify the
opportunity window, because we are looking at it in the
wrong way (perception or bias issue)
4. We see the opportunity but cannot immediately see all the
value and benefits
5. We see the opportunity but misjudge risks and
overestimate benefits

Strategies to become more
Opportunity Savvy?
1. Decide to spend some time and thinking effort in a
deliberate search for opportunities or to design them.
2. Use a scanning approach ( Opportunity Clinic), which allows
you to broaden the direction of search, (looking at several
generic opportunity windows or scenarios) instead of being
too eager to pursue one direction in depth (ice fisherman)
3. When some opportunity comes into view, make an effort to
look at it in different ways (lateral thinking), before moving
on.
4. Spend some time in a deliberate search for benefits in a
situation, instead of expecting them to be self-evident

Examples of Opportunity Clinic scenarios
from this recession
• Water-soluble or Hydrated fullerenes (C60)
• Fullerenes discovered in 1985 by Robert Curl, Harold Kroto and
Richard Smalley. Won Nobel prize in chemistry in 1996
• Supposed “silver bullet” in medicine
• Hype subsided, because pristine natural or synthetic C60 not
very water soluble
• Water-soluble or hydrated fullerenes (HyFN-C60) invented by
Ukrainian scientists in 1997
• 14 years of R&D, plus clinical trials
• Anti-viral, anti-bacterial, high anti-oxidant, anti-malignant etc
• About to be released as Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drink
on Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement

Wikipedia
Hydrated fullerene C60HyFn is a stable, highly
hydrophilic, supra-molecular complex consisting of
С60 fullerene molecule enclosed into the first
hydrated shell that contains 24 water molecules:
C60@(H2O)24. This hydrated shell is formed as a result
of donor-acceptor interaction between lone-electron
pairs of oxygen, water molecules and electron-
acceptor centers on the fullerene surface.
Meanwhile, the water molecules which are oriented
close to the fullerene surface are interconnected by a
three-dimensional network of hydrogen bonds. The
size of C60HyFn is 1.6–1.8 nm.
The maximal concentration of С60 in the form of

C60HyFn achieved by 2010 is 4 mg/mL.[35] [36][37][38]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fullerene
Opportunity Windows
• Left behind Opportunity Windows
– Human applications to non-human or animal applications
(chickens)
– Human Application to agriculture applications (wheat, other
plants)

Opportunity Windows
• Core Capability Transfer Opportunity Windows
– Organic applications (prevent or mitigate blood clots in
veins- anti-atherosclerotic effect)
– to inorganic applications (prevent biofilms that cause rusting
in oil pipelines and water pipelines)
Membrane without C60 Membrane with C60

treatment treatment
Source: March 5, 2009 issue of Journal of Membrane Sciences
• Development of C60 nanomaterials.
- Synthesis of new nanosized composition on the bases of metal, dielectric and
semiconducting materials.
- Development and research of bio-nanocomposites.
• Physical and chemical research of C60 nanostructures.
- Research of physical and chemical properties of nanostructural materials, and in

the first place – fullerenes in hydrated state.
- Research of structural organization of water and water solutions. Cluster nature of
water.
- Research of behavioral peculiarities of physical and chemical processes in
heterogeneous media, structured by hydrated fullerenes.
- Research of behavior peculiarities in water solutions of substances at their small
and super small concentrations.
- Research of the heat-conduction process in media containing nanostructural
materials.
- Research of photocatalytic processes in presence of nanomaterials in different
media.
Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches

C60 Nanostructures for medicine.
- Research and application of nanostructures as additional agents and components,
enhancing efficiency of standard schemas of treatment of human diseases.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes as antioxidative, immunoprotective, anti-
inflammatory and antiallergic agents.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes as highly effective radioprotective agents.
- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment of
cardio-vascular diseases.
- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention and
treatment of oncological diseases.
- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for diabetes and other
endocrine and metabolic diseases.
digestive organs diseases and kidney and urinary tract diseases.
bronchiopulmonary diseases.
(cont)

C60 Nanostructures for medicine.
- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention

and treatment of infectious diseases and diseases of ear, throat and nose.
- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for children’s
diseases.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment of surgical
diseases.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment of women's
diseases.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for lesions of internal organs in
case of alcoholism and toxicomania.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in geriatric practice.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in sports medicine.
- Research and application hydrated fullerenes in balneology.

C60 Nanostructures in sports.
- Enhancement of exercise tolerance in sportsmen and their sport results without use of
dopes, stimulators, anabolics, etc.
- Improvement of adaptive abilities in sportsmen under stress conditions.
C60 Nanostructures for cosmetics, perfumery and personal hygiene products.

- Research and application of nanostructures with bioantioxidative and structure-
organizing properties as components that significantly improve consumer properties of
cosmetic and perfumery products.
- Protection of “gentle” components of such products and prolongation of their shelf
life.
- Creation of brand new cosmetic and perfumery products and personal hygiene
products with health-improving properties.
C60 Nanostructures for pharmacology.

- Development of medicinal forms of hydrated fullerenes for parenteral, oral, intranasal
and other ways of administration.
- Efficiency enhancement of existing pharmaceuticals due to incorporation of hydrated
fullerenes into their composition.
- Development and creation of new vaccines and serums with decreased allergenic and
side effects.
C60 Nanostructures for food.
- Research and application of nanostructures with bio-antioxidative and structure-

organizing properties as components that significantly improve consumer properties of
food.
- Protection of “gentle” components of food products and prolongation of their shelf life.
- Substitution by hydrated fullerenes of hazardous conserving agents and stabilizers for
food products.
C50 Nanostructures for agriculture.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in agriculture for accelerated
germination and growing of plants.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for enhanced plant resistance to
disease-producing agents.
C60 Nanostructures in veterinary medicine.

- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention of animal diseases,
including viral ones.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes to enhance reproductive qualities,
viability and quality of life of elite animals.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for animals in sports.
Basic Biological research of C60 nanostructures.
- Toxicological research of nano-materials.

- Development of biocompatible materials on the basis of nano-structural composites.
- Research of biochemical reactions and biological processes in heterogeneous water
media, structured by hydrated fullerenes.
- Research of the biological role of cluster water structures.
- Research of the influence of specific cluster organization of water on increasing of
biological system stability against unfavourable environmental factors, including action of
different electromagnetic fields and ionizing radiation.
- Research of the use of nano-particle solutions as components of nutrient medium for
microorganisms growth, producers of specific antibiotics, vitamins, proteins, etc.; and as
components of biological test-systems for biomedical analyses.
- Research of the use perspectives of hydrated fullerenes for preservation, including
cryoconservation, of different biological material (biomolecules, cells, blood and its
components, organs and tissues).
- Research of the influence of hydrated fullerenes on the processes of aging and their
ability to slow down such kinds of processes.
McLuhan Tetrad for HYFNs
What gets enhanced? •Overall population health &
longevity
What gets obsolesced? • Role of traditional Big Pharma &
Big Medica
• Role of Antibiotics, vaccines
• Treat the symptom vs the disease
• Drugs that treat the symptoms
• Decoupling of Doctor (expert) vs
Patient (novice)
What gets retrieved or brought •Self medication and self curing
back? •Control over your own body
•Mother Nature as healer
What gets flipped or reversed? •Patient becomes their own doctor

Common sources of technology
foresight errors and miscalculations
•The early hype error. In the short term, marketers, promoters and eager
inventors seem to overestimate the impacts of any new technology and in the long
term underestimate such impacts and consequences (see the Gartner Hype curve)
•The replacement hype error- the belief that new technology will replace the
existing incumbent technology & that this will happen relatively fast. In reality
competing technologies often coexist over a long period of time (i.e. Radio & TV)
•The enhancement error- The belief that new technology will only solve old
problems & supplement existing technological systems. Instead new technologies,
especially platform or core technologies often lay the groundwork for entirely new
systems and new resulting systemic problems. (ie the electric motor for the
railway, the car for the roadway infrastructure, the PC for the Internet, nanotech &
biotech for our bodies "intra-structure" (the Human Genome project and HapMap,
and SNP's ), the impacts of which we do not fully understand yet.

Source: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1447613
• •The panacea error-The mistaken belief that new technology will
function as a panacea for various social problems
•The patterning and sense-making error- The difficulty of seeing
new important links between seemingly unrelated and different
fields of technology, especially in cases where this novel
combination of fields is precisely what will offer major accelerated
development opportunities
•The social impacts error- Often people who have tried to predict
the future have become bogged down in the actual technology and
neglected the economic and social aspects.

• •The prisoners of our times error- That without realizing it, people tend to be
prisoners of the spirit of their times ( Zeitgeist), erroneously believing that the big
issues of today will also be the big issues of tomorrow
•The decision criteria error- The belief that only rational economic considerations
are the only factors behind that choice of one technology over another. However,
for many people, seemingly irrational considerations determine such choices
•The information gap error- The information on which science and technology
(S&T) foresight studies are based on is often insufficient. Technology development
is not linear, transparent or fully predictable, with surprise developments coming
out of left field such as the secret work that is done in the military or a new startup
working in stealth mode before it goes public with a breakthrough.
(We have a list of over 100 thinking errors or cognitive biases in the Opportunity
Clinic Workshop)

The End Part 2

What makes us rich?
Part 3-Designing Winning
Business Models
By
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy
Toronto

“Companies that aren’t able to
systematically rejuvenate their
business model will struggle to
survive and thrive”
Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/

Where to look? Who to Trust?
• The concept of the Business Model only
became popular after 2001 dot.com bubble
collapse
• Over 640 academic articles on business
models
• No single agreed upon definition
• Over 15 definitions in the academic literature

Over 15 definitions in the
academic literature

“Business model innovation matters” and it is
a top priority of CEOs

Operating Margin Growth in Excess of
Competitive Peers
compound annual growth rate over five years
[Source: IBM, CEOs are expanding the innovation horizon: important implications for CIOs]
Benefits Cited by Business Model Innovators
percent of respondents
[Source: IBM, Global CEO Study 2006]

Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/

Definition
A business model describes

the rationale of how an
organization creates, delivers,
and captures value

The Business Model Canvas
The business model describes
the rationale of how an
organization creates, delivers Clients
Infrastructure Offer
and captures value
The canvas elaborates the

business model through nine
basic building blocks that cover
the four main areas of a
business: clients, offer,
infrastructure, and financial
viability.
The business model is a blueprint for a

strategy to be implemented through Finance
organizational structures, processes,
and systems Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/
The Nine Building Blocks of the Osterwalder Business Model
Value Propositions
Solve client problems and satisfy client needs with value
propositions
Clients
Client Segments
An organization serves one or several client segments
Channels
Value propositions are delivered to clients through
communication, distribution, and sales channels
Customer/Client Relationships
Client relationships are established and maintained with
each customer segment

INFRASTRUCTURE
Key Resources
Key resources required to offer and deliver the value propositions ...
Key Activities
… by performing a number of key activities
Key Partnerships
Key partnerships are formed to acquire some resources and perform some
activities
Financial Viability
Revenue Streams
Revenue streams result from value propositions offered to
clients
Cost Structure
All the infrastructure elements result in costs

Acquisitions Business Model
Business Innovations and To-be Model
Version 5 – July 10 , 2009

Objectives
1. Present the Acquisitions as-is business model
2. Elaborate the proposed innovations
3. Present the Acquisitions to-be business model
Information provided For the innovations to the business model:

The challenges
The proposed actions
The benefits
The changes to the business model
For the business model:
Description of the canvas and the components of
the business model (in the annex)

Procurement As-is
KEY KEY SERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTS
PARTNER RESOURCES
Suppliers Staff Acquisitions Staff Government of

- goods & services Stewardship Inter-departmental Canada
Instruments
OGDs Contracting committees OGDs
- own authority
IT tools - Specialized
- Complex Account executives Other
- delegated authority Commodity governments
- Standard
Treasury Board Classification - Custom Events
- Common SMEs
IT Service Branch Authorities - Unique 1-800 service
- Low-dollar value
Data - Routine
KEY Commodity CHANNELS

ACTIVITIES Expert Services
Create & administer contracts & Operations staff
instruments Phone, fax, e-mail
Advise clients
IT tools and web sites
Analyse data and trends
Electronic interfaces
Marketing & communications
E-tendering
Training
Canadian Commercial Corp.
Vendor registration
COST CENTRES REVENUE STREAMS
Salary and O&M Appropriations

IT transfer
Fees
IT maintenance & development
CHALLENGES
PARTNER RESOURCES
Acquisitions
o Standardize our terminology to Stewardship
describe procurement Contracting
- Specialized
o Re-balance workload, with - Complex
clients taking responsibility for - Standard
routine procurement - Custom
- Common
o Support clients that lack - Unique
capacity or capability to do - Low-dollar value
routine procurement - Routine
o Emphasize
KEY PWGSC’s increased Commodity CHANNELS
focus
ACTIVITIES added, complex
on value
procurement Expert Services

INNOVATIONS
PARTNER RESOURCES
 Clients have  Align delegated  Implement

responsibility for authorities with client classification of
routine capability procurement based
procurement on Dynamic Baseline
Model
 Focus Contracting
service on added
value service
KEY - Enterprise CHANNELS
ACTIVITIES - Complex
- Standard
 Create a client-
procurement support
service bundle
- Commodity
management
- Routine procurement
 Full cost recovery for

routine procurement
support service
BENEFITS
PARTNER RESOURCES
 Clients have  Align delegated  Implement o A common reference for

responsibility for authorities with client classification of
procurement across the GC
routine capability procurement based
procurement on Dynamic Baseline o Client focus is on lower dollar and
Model routine procurements, where time
to delivery is important
o PWGSC focus is on higher
complexity and risk, where we
 Focus Contracting provide key added value
service on added
value service o For clients who do not have
KEY - Enterprise CHANNELS
capacity for routine procurement, a
ACTIVITIES - Complex support service will be in place
- Standard
o Full cost recovery for work we do
under the routine procurement
support service.
 Create a client-
procurement support
service bundle
- Commodity
management
- Routine procurement
 Full cost recovery for

routine procurement
support service
Procurement To-be
PARTNER RESOURCES
Suppliers Staff Acquisitions

- goods & services
Instruments Stewardship
GC dept’s & IT tools
Agencies Contracting
- Routine procurement Expanded
- Enterprise
Treasury Board delegation of
- Complex
IT Service Branch authority - Standard
Commodity Data standards &
Classification reporting
Procurement support
KEY - Commodity management CHANNELS
ACTIVITIES - Routine procurement
Expert services
Appropriations
Fees
Routine procurement
Procurement As-is
PARTNER RESOURCES
Suppliers Staff Acquisitions Staff Government of

- goods & services Stewardship Inter-departmental Canada
Instruments
OGDs Contracting committees OGDs
- own authority
IT tools - Specialized
- Complex Account executives Other
- delegated authority Commodity governments
- Standard
Treasury Board Classification - Custom Events
- Common SMEs
IT Service Branch Authorities - Unique 1-800 service
- Low-dollar value
Data - Routine
KEY Commodity CHANNELS

ACTIVITIES Expert Services
instruments Phone, fax, e-mail
Advise clients
IT tools and web sites
Analyse data and trends
Electronic interfaces
Marketing & communications
E-tendering
Training
Vendor registration
Salary and O&M Appropriations

IT transfer
Fees
IT maintenance & development
Procurement To-be
PARTNER RESOURCES
Staff
Suppliers Staff Acquisitions Government of
- goods & services Stewardship Inter-departmental
Optimized committees Canada
GC dept’s & instruments and GC Dept’s &
IT tools Account executives
Agencies Contracting
Events Agencies
- Routine procurement Expanded - Enterprise
Treasury Board delegation of - Complex Support centres Other
IT Service Branch authority - Standard Bi-Annual Conference governments
Commodity Data standards & Communities of SMEs
Classification reporting Practice
Procurement support
KEY - Commodity management CHANNELS
ACTIVITIES - Routine procurement

instruments Expert services
Advise clients Phone, fax, e-mail
Analyse data and trends Acquisitions portal
Marketing & communications E-bidding
Training
Vendor registration
Information sharing (communities)
Salary and O&M Support centres Appropriations

IT transfer Fees
IT maintenance & development Routine procurement
Shortcomings?
• Business Model Canvas doesn’t elicit which
strategic decisions need to be made about the
business
• Business Model Canvas doesn’t account for
industry dynamics
• Does not deal with risk and uncertainty

Hierarchy of Business Model Domain
Perspectives

Perspectives

Perspectives

Strategic business decisions
in each domain

Strategic business decisions
in each domain

Industry Systems Dynamics
Source: Doug Reid, SFI OCAD 2010

Industry Systems Dynamics

Mapping
Industry
System
Dynamics
Source: Doug Reid,

SFI OCAD 2010 Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic © * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
System Dynamics Simulations
Source: Doug Reid, SFI

OCAD 2010 Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic © * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Simulations and Policy Decisions

Eight generic approaches to
Creativity & Innovation
• Accident, chance, serendipity> too random
• Analysis, number-crunching >incremental improvements
• Brainstorming or “Think out of the box” >No structure> low hit
rate for radical ideas- 4.5%
• Games & Puzzles > Warm-up; Practice but not practical
• Mentors, hang around creative people > random
• Linear, step-by-step formula approach >easy for trainers to
teach, but not the way the brain works
• Direct deliberate teaching & use of thinking (cognitive) skills
just like we teach +, -, x. /, in math > most efficient & effective
• Parallel Thinking approach i.e. Six Hats

Creative/Cognitive Thinking skills for
design
• Real life examples
• Designing a new tennis racket

• Designing a new concept for a plate
• Designing an new health care business model

Example of Concept Challenge
Case study: J&J-McNeal Labs; Guelph
What do we take Provocation Opportunity Idea
for granted? Stepping Stone Concept or Solution
“People do
“Escape” Label Changes
not pay
attention to color
expiry dates “Bottle pays
on Attention”
Bottle Changes Need for QC?
medication”
color


“People do
“Reversal” Color-coded
not pay
attention to Exp Date
expiry dates “Expiry date pays
on attention to people” Sensors
Industry Wide
medication” Smart Meds
Std
Cabinet


“People do
“Distortion”
not pay Contest
attention to
expiry dates “People encouraged
on to pay attention Disposal
medication” to exp dates” Send in/drop off
win


“People do New Promotion

“Exaggeration” Phone Alert
not pay vehicle?
attention to Reminder Service
expiry dates “Exp date size of
on city hall clock”
Package
medication”
Beeps
noticeable


“People do Meds change

“Wishful thinking”
not pay Color at 60%
attention to potency
expiry dates
“Wouldn’t it be nice
on
if meds pay attention Meds
medication”
to own exp dates” self-destruct

Classic Strategy and Unknowns
• Strategy is about making decision, choices

• Classic decision theory (French 1988)
distinguishes between 3 sets of conditions
– Decision-making under certainty
– Decision-making under risk
– Decision-making under uncertainty
• Many people incorrectly use the 2 terms (risk
& uncertainty) interchangeably
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * 416-819-9667

Classic Strategy and Unknowns
• Classic decision theory (French 1988) distinguishes
between 3 sets of conditions
– Decision-making under certainty
– Decision-making under risk
– Decision-making under uncertainty
• Decision-making under deep/severe uncertainty
• Decision-making under ambiguity
• Decision-making under equivocality
• Decision-making under complexity
• Decision-making under dichotomy
• Decision-making under anomaly, contradiction or
paradox
• Decision-making under info glut
Ambiguity Equivocality Uncertainty Complexity
One definition, One definition,

with some With certainty
No Multiple confidence or But with many
definition Definitions predictability Related elements

Information /Knowledge Matrix
from the Opportunity Clinic ©
Information Knowledge
Lack of…..
Uncertainty Ambiguity Acquire
Variety of…../
Complexity Equivocality Restrict
Diversity of…
Analysis Interpretation
Uncertainty? Info glut?
Dichotomy?
Unknowns?
Equivocality?
Contradiction.
Anomaly or Paradox?
Ambiguity?
Complexity?

Sense-making Framework
Knowledge Problem Strategy/tactics/ Tools methods to

address problem
Indetermination Cognitive skills to
address problem
1.0 Ambiguity 1.0 Interpret, Classify, 1.0
( lack of any framework), Clarify; assemble 2x2 matrix or multi
No Definitions diverse expert networks; scenario building,
face-2-face; asking the contradiction maps,
right questions, key create novel frameworks,
issues ? key system dynamics
uncertainties? divergent modeling, tech road-
followed by convergent maps, 6 thinking hats,
thinking, lateral thinking; viable systems modeling
re-frame, enact, VSM,
hypothesize, test

Sense-making Framework
Knowledge Problem Strategy/tactics/ Tools methods to

address problem
Indetermination Cognitive skills to
address problem
2.0 Uncertainty ( lack of 2.0 Interpret, Classify, 2.0 gap analysis ,
data or even which Certify, Verify: technology road-maps.
questions to ask to find assemble broad flexible generic technology
the information), One networks, face-2-face, evolution maps, DSS,
Definition with some asking right questions, DBMS, tagging,
certainty or predictability convergent thinking, folksonomies,
lateral thinking; get info; taskonomy
infer, assume or
predict, be flexible,
buffer from critics
Opportunity Clinic™ Smart Economy 416-

819-9667
Real Applications?
Starting and Managing a Business in Challenging

Economic Times
by Walter Derzko
The following five one to two day-long sessions

are based on over 25 years of research from the
Opportunity Clinic © and the book –Opportunity
-45 scenarios to drive your business in
challenging times by Walter Derzko
Session 1-Dealing with Unknowns & Risks in your Business
Participants will explore and learn how to deal with the seven
common types of unknowns facing every business (uncertainty,
ambiguity, equivocality, complexity, dichotomy, anomaly/paradox
and infoglut) and explore strategies and tactics with coping and
dealing with each. Each participant will also map the 6 types of
changes that exist in the external business environment and the
likely effect on their business success.
Session 2-Opportunity Recognition and spotting, discovering or

designing emerging Opportunity Windows
Challenging economic time and turbulence present both
challenges/threats and unique one-in-a-life time opportunities for
each business. This session will explore common opportunity
scenarios that we can expect to see in the next one to three year
and how the seize the resulting “opportunity windows” and lessen
the possible threats of each
Session 3-Business Model makeover
Business owners will learn how to evaluate their existing business
models and fine tune and adapt them to changing threats and
opportunities discovered in session one and two
Session 4-Anticipatory Management

Participants will explore 8 remote but possible wild card scenarios that
could either wreck or rocket their business forward, depending on your
mindset, anticipatory management prowess and preparatory skills
Session 5 Creating a Business Playbook for challenging economic times

Business owners will create their own flexible and customized Playbook
of business strategic decisions, strategies and tactics based on the
output of the first four sessions-risks and uncertainties, changes and
business drivers, threats and opportunities, and wildcard mitigation
tactics
Recap
2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my

business / workplace today?

more information on?

The End-Part 3 of 3
• Thank you for your attention
• Happy to answer any questions
• Visit the Smart Economy blog
http://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com
• Watch for the upcoming books on
Opportunities and smart technologies .
• Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-

819-9667 or email
wderzko@pathcom.com or
walter.derzko@utoronto.ca


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Global HR Forum 2010

Seoul, South Korea

New Emerging Business Opportunities;

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /

3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?

4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would like

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. wderzko@pathcom.com

• Nanotech? Biotech ?Infotech ?/Convergence?

• What’s the common denominator?

• What Makes a Object / System Smart?

• Generally speaking, if a system /machine

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• Various adjectives: smart,

Drivers Wanted …to….Drivers Optional

•Recognizing that some products or

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

© 2005-2006 Walter Derzko Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• Adaptive networks, GPS, directory services,

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• Sensors, embedded systems (smart badges,

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• Expert systems, knowledge bases, inference

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• Subfields of Advanced AI; Case Based

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy , Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. wderzko@pathcom.com

• goal-directed systems, robots, artificial life

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy. Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667 wderzko@pathcom.com

• Self-organizing systems, complex awareness,

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

3) What gets 4) At the extreme,

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy. Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

3) What gets 4) At the extreme,

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

• Pervasive, Ubiquitous, Disruptive

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

Switzerland Taiwan United Kingdom United States

12th Micro-Machine Summit in Beijing, China April,2006

Micromachine Summit 2010 (16th) April 28 - April 30, 2010,

Micromachine Summit 2009 (15th) May 5 - May 8, 2009,

Micromachine Summit 2008 (14th) April30 - May 3, 2008,

Micromachine Summit2007 (13th) April 27 - 29, 2007, Venice, Italy

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; wderzko@pathcom.com

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• We are trying to plan for:

2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /

3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?

4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would like

Walter Derzko; Smart Economy

• Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog

• “Not a high risk speculation but something

• Problems -> solutions