The Future of Indonesia Defence Condition

by David Raja Marpaung

1. What’s the important of defence analysis?

2. Recent Condition
3. Regional conflict in the level of ASEAN and
ASIA
4. Indonesia defence system
5. Opportunity and Threat

David Raja Marpaung. Indonesia Defence and Politic Consultant. Lecture at University of Indonesia and LaSalle College International. Member of Harvard
 The Importance of Defence Analysis

• Analysis of Recent Condition (SWOT and

PESTLE analysis)
• Support to defence policy and regulation
• Help government to achieve the program
target
• Involving all stakeholder that related with
defence and security issues
 Part of Defence Analysis
• Defence budgets . Looking at procurement and budget trends.
•  Defence procurement . Following and analysing procurement
programmes, seeing how they develop, and which bidders are
winning or losing.
•  Defence markets . Analysing market sectors such as weapon,
,aircraft, armoured fighting vehicles, and warships.
• Defence industry . Looking at the major players, and how they are
working in the defence market. The networking of regional and big
power.
• Defence politics . Analysing how politics in different ministries and
countries affect broad defence trends, as well as individual
programmes.
Indonesia and It’s Environment
ASEAN Fact
Global Fact
 Role of Big Power in the Region
• USA
• CHINA
• RUSIA
INDIA
• Japan
• AUSTRALIA

• * Same Color as Ally or affiliation

 Recent Condition
• There’s no comprehensive policy and defense strategy
•  Lack of community participation (civil society) in the development of
defense.
• Lack of inadequate facilities and infrastructure, improving the profession 
• Lack of condition and number of weapons and infrastructure
• arms embargo by the major producing countries and the low utilization
of the national defense industry.
• Not to be minimally adequate defense budget (Indonesia's defense
budget is only 1.1% of PBD / Gross Domestic Product, or 5.7% of national
budget).
• objective and direction of defense policy and programs that are
certainly in order to solve the problems set out in regulation No.7 of
2005 to enhance the country's defense capability.
 Prospect of Conflict
• South China Sea Territory Conflict
• Border conflict among Countries (Indonesia-
Malaysia, Malaysia-Thailand, and Etc)
• Economic Exclusive Zone
• Economic Gap among Asean Countries
• Regulation and Action To Terrorist Group across
Countries such as Jamaah Islamiyah and etc
• Disaster management related with global warming
and it’s impact
 Asia Conflict
• Korean Peninsula Conflict
• Copy right and Intelectual Right
• Transnational Crime (Weapon and Drugs
blackmarket)
• Domination of China and Position of Japan. Does
Japan still in the protectorate of USA
• Nuclear Issues (China, India, Korea) already have
nuclear facility. Indonesia possible in the future.
 The Position of Indonesia
• Foreign Policy “ Bebas Aktif”
• Middle Developing countries with lot of
Natural Resources
• Nuclear ambition in the future
• In the middle of USA and China? How ?
• Hegemony of Indonesianism in Southeast Area
• Development of Independent Defence
Procurement
 Indonesia Defence System
• Application of ”Sishankamrata”
• Developing Reserve Component
• Sustainable Domestic Defence Industries
• Professionalism of “TNI”
• Nuclear Ambition start from Nuclear Power
Plant
• Division ol Labor between TNI and Polri
 Opportunity

• Geopolitical and Geostrategic

• Biggest Country in the region and Head of ASEAN
• Domestic Defence Industries
• Good relation and trusted in foreign raltion with
all countries
• Economy Stability and GDP growth increase 6-7%
per year
• Lack of Internal Issues such as Aceh and Papua
can be handle by government
 Threat
• Radicalism and Fundamentalism linked to
terrorist Group
• Poverty and uneducated citizen
• Limited Budget to Defence Procurement
• Lack of government consistency that change
it’s regulation or policy in short term
• Lack of Coordination to achieve the blueprint
of Indonesia Defence System
• Questions………………………….?

• Email:davidrajamarpaung@gmail.com