RCA Reston 2020 Committee

March 9, 2011

Tysons & Reston TOD Areas:

A Quantitative Comparison
 Densities in Reston’s TOD Area
(Millions GSF)
96.0
100
Reston Town Center
RESTON TOD AREA DENSITIES 90 Wiehle Avenue
The RTF sub-committee reports propose 74.4
80 Herndon-Monroe
densities that would allow densities to triple
over an unspecified timeframe.
70 64.0 52.4

The new Tysons Comprehensive Plan allows a 55.9

75% increase from 47.2 to 82.4 million GSF over 60
40.4
the next 20 years with longer term goals
roughly double that density. 50 30.3
26.7
Key information sources: 40 31.8
• Herndon-Monroe did not quantify density.
This uses the Scenario A 2030 densities for 30 29.5
this TOD area. 17.7 20.5 19.9
• Wiehle data is from the sub-committee 20 18.2
report.
• RTC & TCN data is the base case for that 10 8.2
14.1
11.0 13.2 14.1
area as calculated in December. 5.9
• The Scenario A and GMU forecasts are as 0
given. 2010 GMU Mid GMU High Scenario A RTF Sub-
• Tysons 2010 Comprehensive Plan. Existing Forecast Forecast 2030 Comm
2030 2030 Reports

March 9, 2011 2
 Tysons & Reston TOD Area Densities
(Millions of GSF)
100.0 96.0
Other Non-Res Office Residential
6.6
DENSITY 90.0
82.4
Tysons maximum allowable density in 2030 is
80.0 74.4
82.4 MM GSF across four station TOD areas 10.8
comprising 1,800+ acres. GMU’s High Reston TOD Forecast 6.6
70.0 64.1 44.7

Reston has three TOD study areas (actually 2- 60.0 56.5 8.5
1/2) covering 1,600+ acres.
7.9
45.0 35.0
50.0
Tysons total density, mix, and intensity are
largely based on GMU’s high 2030 residential 40.0
30.3
and employment forecasts for the area. 31.8 28.3
• Even DPZ’s “Scenario A” would 30.0 4.9
substantially exceed GMU’s maximum 44.7
expectation for Reston TOD areas. 20.0
21.0 32.8
26.6 25.3
Should Reston follow the Tysons example and 10.0 20.3

align its 2030 allowable density totals with 5.9

GMU’s high forecast for Reston’s TOD areas? 0.0
Tysons Reston GMU Mid GMU High Scenario A Reston
Corner TOD 2010 Forecast Forecast TOD Areas
2030 2030 2030 (RTF)

March 9, 2011 3
 Tysons & Reston TOD Areas
Mix of Uses (%)
Other Non-Res Office Residential
MIX OF USES 100%
7%
9%
13% 15% 14% 13%
Tysons longer term goal mix goal is 65% non- 90%
residential construction, a goal it is permitted to
exceed in the next 20 years. 80%

47%
We have spoken of “balance” in residential and 70% 47%
non-residential development in Reston TOD areas, 47%
55% 50%
60%
which certainly doesn’t exist now.
• The GMU high forecast would see a 60:40 50%
66%
non-residential to residential spatial
allocation, the mid-range forecast is even 40%
more distorted.
• Scenario A and the sub-committee reports 30%
would come closer to spatial balance, but at 44% 47%
20% 39%
36%
higher permitted development levels. 32%

10% 19%
How can we achieve better balance in
development without permitting unrealistically 0%
high levels of development? Tysons Reston GMU Mid GMU High Scenario A Reston
Corner TOD 2010 Forecast Forecast 2030 TOD Areas
2030 2030 2030 (RTF)

March 9, 2011 4
 Tysons & Reston TOD Areas
Residential & Employee Populations

INTENSITY Employee Residential 222K

216K
The Reston TOD area sub-committee reports
foresee—
• The workforce population 175K
• More than doubling, and GMU’s High Reston TOD Forecast
• Rivaling Tysons’ 2030 workforce across 152K
four TOD areas.

162,200
• Residential population in the Reston TOD 137K

171,600
areas quintupling in the coming decades.

131,351
Neither the Task Force nor the County have

118,000
92K
studied the public infrastructure required to

110,133
accommodate this increased intensity in
Reston over any timeframe.

79,800
• Infrastructure planning, including phasing
and implementation, were an integral

59,600
feature of the Tysons study effort.
44,333

43,764
33,733
11,800

27,067
Following the Tysons example, the RTF and
County need to understand and plan for
Tysons Reston TOD GMU Mid GMU High Scenario A RTF Sub-
needed public infrastructure before finalizing Corner 2010 Forecast Forecast 2030 Comm
the RTF Phase I Comprehensive Plan changes. 2030 2030 2030 Reports

March 9, 2011 5