Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LECTURER:
Serhat SENSOY
Engineer
-Climate Indices
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The background
In the beginning… 1999
WMO Commission for Climatology / CLIVAR
Working Group on Climate Change Detection
meets and try to find answer:
“What could a small group of volunteers do to
further global climate change detection?”
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In 2003, CCl/CLIVAR Expert Team on Climate Change Detection
Monitoring and Indices.
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Workshop Agenda was modeled as
Introductions to the issues
Data Quality Control
Calculating indices
Testing data homogeneity
Making sense out of the results
• Country reports
• Regional evaluation
Post workshop planning
• Peer-reviewed articles, etc.
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Indices software
Workshop suitable software (RClimDex) produced
on behalf of the ET by Xuebin Zhang from
Environment Canada
• http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/
• RClimDex uses the free “R” statistical package
Workshop results
6 regional workshop peer-review papers
submitted – after careful post workshop analyses
2005
Improved Coverage
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What is the characteristic of extremes?
Trends in extreme events
Can't be characterized by the size
of their societal or economic
impacts
Homogeneity
• Evaluation of time series of the indices to weed out
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inhomogeneous data
Climate Data Homogenization
By Enric Aguilar
A homogeneous climate time series is defined as one where variations
are caused only by variations in climate
(WMO-TD No. 1186)
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prec.
p.
Percentage based Indices
After: Jones et al. (Climatic Change, 1999) Yan et al. (…, 2002, IMPROVE- issue)
“warm
nights”
upper 10-ptile
1961-1990
lower 10-ptile
1961-1990
“cold
nights”18
Quality Control
1. If precipitation value is (–), it is assumed as missing value(-99.9)
2. If Tmax < Tmin both are assumed as missing value(-99.9)
3. If the data outside of threshold (mean ±4*STD) it is problematic value.
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Indices Plots
Locally weighted regression
Linear (least square) fit
Kendall’s tau based slope estimator has been used to compute the trends since this
method doesn’t assume a distribution for the residuals and is robust to the effect of
outliers in the series.
If slope error greater than slope estimate we can’t trust slope estimate.
If PValue is less than 0.05 this trend is significant at 95% level of confidence This
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indices show that frost days will be decreasing 26.8 days in 100 years.
Climate Indices Study in Turkey
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Numbers of Frost Days have been increasing mainly in Black Sea and Marmara
Region. 53 stations have decreasing trend while 32 are increasing. Average
decreasing is 28 days in 100 years. Although Istanbul, Elazığ, Diyarbakır and
Hakkari show opposite trend with their located regions, they trends are not linear
and have some breakpoint.
Numbers of Summer Days have been increasing all over Turkey
especially northern part stations have greatest trends. Average
increasing is 59 days in 100 years. Most of the trends are statistically
significant at the 5% level
Numbers of Ice Days have been decreasing all over Turkey except 6 stations.
Inland stations have greatest trends. There is no ice day in the Mediterranean
region. Average decreasing is 20 days in 100 years. Although Bilecik, Tekirdağ
and Hakkari show opposite trend with their located regions, they trends are
not significant and have some breakpoint.
Numbers of Tropical Nights have been increasing except Euphrates Basin. Elazığ
has significant decreasing trend after Keban Dam constructed. Diyarbakır has non
significant decreasing. Especially coastal stations have greatest trends. Average
increasing is 47 days in 100 years. Most of the trends are statistically significant
at the 5% level.
Global
Indices
Analyses
From Alexander, L. et all
Locations of
(a) temperature and
(b) precipitation stations
available for this study.
The colours represent
the different data
sources that are used. 27
Trends in
(a) cold nights (TN10p),
(b) warm nights (TN90p),
(c) cold days (TX10p) and
(d) warm days (TX90p).
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Conclusion
The results show that numbers of summer days and tropical nights have been
increasing all over Turkey while ice days and frost days decreasing. Summer days
have increased about 6 days per decade. Most of the trends are statistically
significant at the 5% level. Extreme temperature both maximum and minimum have
increased at most stations. Warm days and warm nights have been increasing all
over Turkey while cool days and cool nights have been decreasing. Warm spells
have increased while cold spells have decreased. Diurnal temperature range has
increased in most inland stations while it has decreased along coastal areas.
Trends in simple daily intensity index have been increasing in most of the stations
even mean annual total precipitation declined in 30 stations located in the Aegean
and inland Anatolia. The number of heavy precipitations days have been increasing
especially in the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions and usually cause extreme
flood events. The maximum one-day and 5 days precipitation have also increased
except eastern Marmara and southeast Anatolia region. Unfortunately consecutive
dry days have been increasing in Aegean and Black Sea, Diyarbakır, Batman and
central Anatolia while decreasing Eastern Aegean, Mediterranean and East Anatolia
Region. Average increasing is 25 days in 100 years . Consecutive Wet Days have
been increasing especially in Eastern part of the Marmara and around of Burdur,
Nigde, Nevşehir, Sinop, Sivas, Rize and Muş but decreasing in Aegean and Konya.
Average increasing is 2 and decreasing is 2 days in 100 years.
In summary, in general there are large coherent patterns of warming across in the
country affecting both maximum and minimum temperatures but there is a much30
more mixed pattern of change in precipitation.
Serhat ŞENSOY
ssensoy@dmi.gov.tr
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