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The publication of IDF curves by the Irrigation Department mentioned above [1] has considered six
different climatic zones covering the entire Island. Since then it was widely used in planning and design
of water resource development in Sri Lanka.
The recent update discussed here is based on 19 different locations considering about 65 years of rainfall
data covering main cities of the Island. This paper discusses the updated IDF curves for 19 different
locations covering entire country and findings are compared with the previous research work discussed
above.
1 ENGINEER
This paper presents IDF curves developed for 19 Daily rainfall records were used to find annual
stations following “Gumbel Distribution” using maximum rainfalls of 1day, 2days and 3 days
rainfall data from 1950. Longer the data period, duration. Outlier test was performed for each
higher the accuracy of IDF curves for higher annual maximum series and the outliers were
return periods. The detail summary of data used replaced by statistically acceptable values.
for the analysis for each station is given in Table
1. The number of years shown within the Next step was to carryout statistical analysis
brackets are exclusive of years of missing data. (Gumbel EV) on each series of data separately to
find rainfall for above mentioned storm
2. Methodology durations for return periods (years) of 2, 5, 10,
In some years pluviographs were not available 25, 50,100 and 200.
and only hourly rainfall data were available.
According to the data availability, annual
maximum rainfall for the durations of 15 min to
21 hrs were calculated using pluviographs (for
rainfall above 10 mm) or 1 hr data.
ENGINEER 2
3. Specimen Calculation
q=1-p
Rainfall in Return Y (Reduced
1 hr Probability of
Rank m Year descending p=m/(n+1) Period variate)
Rainfall non
order (T=1/p) =-Ln(-Ln(q))
exceedence
1 1957 32.5 72.5 0.024 42.00 0.976 3.73
2 1959 28.0 72.0 0.048 21.00 0.952 3.02
3 1960 34.0 69.0 0.071 14.00 0.929 2.60
4 1961 20.0 69.0 0.095 10.50 0.905 2.30
5 1962 72.5 67.0 0.119 8.40 0.881 2.07
6 1963 49.0 60.0 0.143 7.00 0.857 1.87
7 1964 55.5 60.0 0.167 6.00 0.833 1.70
8 1965 56.0 57.0 0.190 5.25 0.810 1.55
9 1966 30.0 56.0 0.214 4.67 0.786 1.42
10 1967 56.0 56.0 0.238 4.20 0.762 1.30
11 1968 19.0 56.0 0.262 3.82 0.738 1.19
12 1969 37.0 55.5 0.286 3.50 0.714 1.09
13 1970 67.0 55.0 0.310 3.23 0.690 0.99
14 1971 33.0 51.7 0.333 3.00 0.667 0.90
15 1972 19.0 49.0 0.357 2.80 0.643 0.82
16 1973 55.0 48.0 0.381 2.63 0.619 0.73
17 1974 22.0 46.0 0.405 2.47 0.595 0.66
18 1975 27.5 42.5 0.429 2.33 0.571 0.58
19 1976 38.0 40.0 0.452 2.21 0.548 0.51
20 1977 32.0 40.0 0.476 2.10 0.524 0.44
21 1978 60.0 40.0 0.500 2.00 0.500 0.37
22 1979 39.0 39.0 0.524 1.91 0.476 0.30
23 1980 38.0 38.0 0.548 1.83 0.452 0.23
24 1981 72.0 38.0 0.571 1.75 0.429 0.17
25 1982 15.0 38.0 0.595 1.68 0.405 0.10
26 1983 38.0 37.0 0.619 1.62 0.381 0.04
27 1984 42.5 35.5 0.643 1.56 0.357 -0.03
28 2003 60.0 34.0 0.667 1.50 0.333 -0.09
29 2004 35.5 33.5 0.690 1.45 0.310 -0.16
30 2005 40.0 33.0 0.714 1.40 0.286 -0.23
31 2006 69.0 32.5 0.738 1.35 0.262 -0.29
32 2007 51.7 32.0 0.762 1.31 0.238 -0.36
33 2008 40.0 32.0 0.786 1.27 0.214 -0.43
34 2009 40.0 30.0 0.810 1.24 0.190 -0.51
35 2010 46.0 28.0 0.833 1.20 0.167 -0.58
36 2011 56.0 27.5 0.857 1.17 0.143 -0.67
37 2012 32.0 22.0 0.881 1.14 0.119 -0.76
38 2013 69.0 20.0 0.905 1.11 0.095 -0.86
39 2014 57.0 19.0 0.929 1.08 0.071 -0.97
40 2015 33.5 19.0 0.952 1.05 0.048 -1.11
41 2016 48.0 15.0 0.976 1.02 0.024 -1.32
3 ENGINEER
3.2 Gumbel Plot for 1-hour duration
1 hr Rainfall - Mannar
90.0
80.0
70.0
R² = 0.9579
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00
Reduced Variate
Rainfall depth relevant to 1 hour duration for
different return periods were calculated and are
Figure 1 – Gumble Plot for 1hr duration of rainfall for Mannar
illustrated in Table 3.
Similarly for other durations, the trend lines
Calculation of Rainfall Depth for 1 hour were obtained and rainfall depths for different
Storm Duration for Different Return Periods return periods are calculated. The results are
for Mannar given in Table 3.
Equation of trend line for 1 hour duration: Rainfall Intensities can be calculated from the
Y= 13.191 X+35.875 Where Y= Rainfall in mm rainfall depth for different storm periods over
different return periods and are plotted in
X=-Ln(-Ln(q)), reduced variate
Figure 3 (in normal scale) and in Figure 4 (in log
=-Ln(-Ln(1-P)), scale).
=-Ln(-Ln(1-I/T)),
Table 3 - Rainfall Depths (in mm) for I hr Storm Durations for different return periods for
Mannar
ENGINEER 4
Table 4 – Rainfall Depths (mm) for Different Storm Durations and Return Periods
y = 13.191x + 35.875
y = 16.321x + 52.428
y = 20.078x + 60.974
y = 25.043x + 69.262
y = 33.089x + 72.071
y = 39.932x + 85.388
y = 56.192x + 110.24
y = 65.062x + 127.39
T, Return
period in
years
5yr
250
10 yr
200
25 yr
150
50 yr
100
100 yr
50 200 yr
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
5 ENGINEER
IDF Curve - Mannar 2 yr
120
5yr
100
10 yr
80
60
Figure 4 - Rainfall Intensities against Storm 25 yr
Duration for different Return Periods on Log
scale for Mannar
40 50 yr
20 100 yr
0
200 yr
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Rainfall duration (hr)
Figure 3 - Rainfall Intensities against Storm Duration for different Return Periods for Mannar
Figure 4 - Rainfall Intensities against Storm Duration for different Return Periods for Mannar
in Log scale
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4. Results
Table 5 – Intensity Duration Frequency Equations
7 ENGINEER
5. Comparison with previous studies 5.1 Comparison of Annual Average Rainfalls
Out of previous studies the very first analysis When comparing annual average rainfalls, it is
carried out in 1977 by Baghirathan was selected understood that the difference is less than 10%
for comparison. In Baghirathan’s analysis data except Nuwara Eliya (See Table 6).
up to 1970 was used where as in the current
analysis the rainfall up to 2016 was used which Since there are 13 common stations between
will enable to examine the trend of rainfall after Baghirathan and current analyses, the results of
50 years. those stations are considered for the
comparison.
Baghirathan Current
Annual Annual
Station
Average Average
Data Period Data Period
Rainfall Rainfall
(mm) (mm)
Anuradhapura 1951-1970(20)
1448 1951 -2014 (64) 1314
Badulla 1954-1970(17)
1778 1950 – 2016 (67) 1750
Batticaloa 1955-1970(16)
1702 1950 – 2015 (66) 1684
Colombo 1950-1970(21)
2388 1950 – 2015 (66) 2300
Galle 1955-1970(16)
2515 1950 – 2016 (67) 2308
Hambantota 1954-1970(17)
1067 1951 – 2016 (66) 1012
Kurunegala 1955-1970(16)
2083 1950 – 2016 (67) 2039
Mannar 1956-1970(15)
967 1950 – 2016 (64) 996
Nuwara Eliya 1946-1969(24)
2159 1950 – 2015 (66) 1873
Puttalam 1953-1970(18)
1118 1953 – 2016 (64) 1186
Rathnapura 1955-1970(16)
3886 1950 – 2014 (65) 3706
Trincomalee 1951-1969(19)
1727 1950 – 2016 (67) 1586
Vavuniya 1957-1970(14)
1499 1957 – 2016 (59) 1407
ENGINEER 8
5.2 Comparison of IDF Results
Table 7 – Comparison of Rainfall Intensities(mm/hr) for different storm duration for each
return period
3 hr 6 hr
70.0 40.0
60.0 35.0
30.0
RF Intensities in mm/h
RF Intensities in mm/h
50.0
25.0
40.0 Baghirathan
Baghirathan 20.0
30.0
current 2019 15.0
20.0
10.0 current 2019
10.0 5.0
0.0 0.0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Return Period (yrs) Return Period (yrs)
Figure 5 – Rainfall Intensity for 3 hr storm for Figure 6 – Rainfall Intensity for 6 hr storm for
different return periods for Kurunegala different return periods for Kurunegala
12 hr 24 hr
25.0 14.0
12.0
20.0
RF Intensities in mm/h
RF Intensities in mm/h
10.0
15.0 8.0
10.0 Baghirathan 6.0 Baghirathan
4.0 current 2019
5.0 current 2019
2.0
0.0 0.0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
Return Period (yrs) Return Period (yrs)
Figure 7 – Rainfall Intensity for 12 hr storm for Figure 8 – Rainfall Intensity for 24 hr storm for
different return periods for Kurunegala different return periods for Kurunegala
9 ENGINEER
Table 8 – Summary of Comparison of Current IDF results (rainfall intensities) with
Baghirathan for different storm durations
Storm Duration
3 hr 6 hr 12 hr 24 hr
Station
Anuradhapura decreased decreased increased increased
Badulla decreased increased increased increased
Batticaloa decreased decreased increased decreased
Colombo increased increased increased increased
Galle decreased increased increased increased
Hambantota decreased decreased same increased
Kurunegala increased increased increased increased
Mannar increased increased increased increased
Nuwara Eliya increased increased increased increased
Puttalam increased increased increased increased
Rathnapura increased increased increased increased
Trincomalee decreased decreased decreased increased
Vavuniya decreased same decreased decreased
References
According to the comparison of present analysis
1. Ponrajah, A. J.P.,”Design of Irrigation
with Baghirathan’s analysis, 6 stations
Headworks for Small Catchments “,
(Colombo, Kurunegala, Mannar, Nuwara Eliya, Irrigation Department, pp 27-35.
Puttalam and Rathnapura) out of 13 stations
show an increment of rainfall. All these 6 2. Baghirathan, V. R. & Shaw, E. M. “Rainfall
stations are getting dominant rainfall from Depth-Duration-Frequency Studies for Sri
South West Monsoon. Trincomalee and Lanka”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol.37, Issue
34, 1978, pp.223-239.
Vavuniya show a decreasing pattern of rainfall.
Anuradhapura and Hambanthota shows 3. Dharmasena, G. T. & Premasiri, S. M.
decreasing pattern for short storm duration “Rainfall Intensity Studies for Sri Lanka”,
whereas it shows increasing pattern for long Hydrological Annual,1988/89, pp.73-91.
storm durations.
4. Gunawardana, A.D.S., “ Development of
Rainfall Intensity – Duration – Frequency
6. Discussion
(IDF) Curves for Colombo, Sri Lanka”,
According to the comparison it clearly shows Hydrological Annual 2015/2016, Volume 57,
that there is no significant difference in annual Irrigation Department, Sri Lanka, pp 84 - 98.
average rainfalls in the above selected stations
whereas it shows a significant difference in 5. Hettiarachchi,P. “Development of rainfall
rainfall intensities for different storm durations. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)
relations for the Kalu Ganga catchment,
Therefore, these new curves may be used for
Hydrological Annual,2010/2011, pp.65-75.
design and planning work of Water Resource
Projects near the above-mentioned stations. 6. Hettiarachchi,P. “Analysis of Annual
However due to minimal data for the stations Maximum Rainfalls from Principal
such as Jaffna, Monaragala and Polonnaruwa Stations”, Hydrological Annual, 2011/2012,
the IDF curves for higher return periods pp.72-83.
(greater than 50 years) should be used with
7. Ranatunga, D. G. L., “Towards More
caution.
Efficient Hydraulic and Hydrological
Since 19 number of stations considered here do Design of Cross Drainage Structures using
not cover the whole island, more stations New Developed Intensity Duration
should be analyzed in order to perform regional Frequency Equations”, Transactions 2001,
analysis which is described in Baghirathan’s Volume I – Part B, The Institution of
reserch paper) so that the IDF curves could be Engineers, Sri Lanka 2001, pp.01-12.
generalised for each region and the designers
8. Nandalal, K.D.W. & Ghnanapala, P.,
would be able to use the curves reasonably.
Development of IDF Curves for Colombo.
Engineer: Journal of the Institution of
Engineers, Sri Lanka. 50(1),2017, pp.33–39.
ENGINEER 10