Impact of Climate Change and Water Resources in North India

A
ANIKET RASTOGI 23107017 MECHANICAL ENGINNERING

Abstract: Direct and indirect effects of climate change will have an adverse impact on water resources, human systems, regional agriculture, and
food security. India, with a population of more than 1.2 billion, has experienced tremendous economic growth in the last two decades with only
4% of the world’s water resources and about 9% of the world’s arable land. Rainfall is distributed highly unevenly in the spatio-temporal space,
with the highest rainfall-receiving region on the planet in northeastern (NE) India, in contrast to Thar Desert in western India. There has been a
significant change in precipitation and temperature during 2000–2015 in India in comparison to the last 100 years. This could indicate a signature
of climate change in India. We find that a comprehensive and detailed understanding and clear assessment of the impact of climate
change on India’s water resources are required to reach a definitive conclusion and explanation of the trends to better inform policy actions.

Author keywords: Climate change; India; Precipitation; Temperature; Runoff.

.

Introduction In India, a vast country with multifaceted geography, the effects

Climate change is a big challenge to the water, food security, and
welfare of 1.2 billion people in the 21st century in India. There is
uneven spatial distribution of water resources in many regions of
India, from the drier northwest, where rainfall is scarce, to the
northeast, the highest rainfall-receiving region on the planet.
India has experienced several devastating climate extremes
dur-ing recent decades. For instance, the drought of 2016 covered
about 10 states and affected about 330 million people, causing an
eco-nomic loss of $100 billion (ASSOCHAM Report 2016).
Agricul-ture in India feeds about 17.2% of the global population
using only about 9% of the world’s arable land, and more than
56% of the total agricultural area is rainfed (Singh et al. 2014b;
6 2
Rathore et al. 2014). Arable lands [1.8 × 10 km (180 Mha)]
span temperate, tropical, and subtropical climates. Rice, wheat,
and maize are the main crops, together accounting for 42.2% of
the gross cropped area and about 86% of the grain yield in 2014
(MAFW 2016). Rainfed farming covers about 58% of the net
sown area with about 68% of the rural population (CRIDA 2011;
Kumar et al. 2009). In northern India, groundwater storage
decreased at the rate of 2 cm=year, while groundwater storage in
southern India increased at the rate of 1–2 cm=year between
2002 and 2013 because of changes in pumping and precipitation
patterns using Gravity Recovery Cli-mate Experiment (GRACE)
data (Asoka et al. 2017). About 13.78% of India’s geographical
area is subjected to flood disasters (Planning Commission 2011),
and about 33 million people were affected by flooding from 1953
to 2000 (Kumar et al. 2005). Mum-bai, India’s financial capital,
received a record 944 mm rainfall on July 26, 2005, causing
havoc and several casualties (Kumar et al. 2008).
of climate change on water resources differ substantially among
different regions and river basins and cannot be generalized. Still,
there is a lacuna in interdisciplinary amalgamation of the knowl-edge
of climate change impacts on water resources in India. Reliance on
historical climate conditions will no longer be tenable since climate
change generates conditions well outside past param-eters for current
and future planning. We present rigorous analysis based on published
data from observed recent trends and climate model projections with
special emphasis on drought and flood. This study gives a clear
overview of studies carried out to under-stand the impact of climate
change on water resources in India.
Rainfall Trends and Projections
In India, about 80% of annual precipitation is due to the
southwestern monsoon between June and September (Lacombe
and McCartney 2014). Using 306 stations across India with 135
years of data (1871–2005), no significant trend is observed for
annual rainfall on a national basis. However, a small decreasing
trend in the annual rainfall was observed across India, whereas a
small increasing trend is observed in northwestern and peninsular
India (Kumar et al. 2010; Mondal et al. 2015). In northeastern
India, the highest rainfall-receiving region on the planet, no clear
trend of rainfall for 1871–2008 was observed (Jain et al. 2013).
An increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in low and
medium rainfall events were observed across India (Goswami et
al. 2006). In central India, a significant decreasing trend (10%
significance level) of the mean July and August rainfall was
observed during 1951–2010 (Singh et al. 2014b). In several major
river basins, the number of rainy days decreased while the
number of intense events increased (Jain et al. 2017).
Average annual precipitation is expected to increase by 7–
18.7% for various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) by
2099 compared with the 1961–1990 baseline using 18 Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models across India
(Chaturvedi et al. 2012). In several river basins across India,
precipitation is projected to increase up to 30% in the mid term
(2040–2069) and 50% in the long term (2070–2099) from observed
data for the period of 1971–2005 using five general circulation
models (GCMs) of CMIP5 (Mishra and Lilhare 2016). Using 15
 1600

(mm)
Annual Precipitation Mean Precipitation (1901-2015)
1400

Precipitati
1200

on
1000

800

Annual Mean
600

400

200
0

2015
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
Year

Fig. 1. Annual rainfall data in India.

coupled climate models simulations under the A1B scenario from the
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), an increase in annual
precipitation is projected, with significant increase in southern India
(Kim and Byun 2009). A rise of about 100 mm in premonsoon
rainfall is projected for the Brahmaputra basin using PRECISE
(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) sim-ulation with
the A2 scenario for the 2071–2100 period by consid-ering the base
period of 1961–1990 (Ghosh and Dutta 2012).
Fig. 1 shows mean annual precipitation for the 1901–2015
period. The mean precipitation for the 2000–2015 period (1,104
mm) is lower than that for the 1901–2015 period (1,139 mm). It
is clear that dry years were observed in the recent past.
Temperature Trends and Projections
A warming trend across India has been observed, with 2016 as the
warmest year on record since nationwide records commenced in 1901
(IMD 2016). The five warmest years all occurred during the last 16
years (2000–2016). The national average annual temper-ature
showed a warming of 0.22°C per decade during 1971–2003
(Kothawale and Kumar 2005). A warming trend of 0.57°C per
hundred years across India has been observed using the data for
1881–1997 (Pant and Kumar 1997). Southern, central, and western
India showed a rise in annual mean temperature, and northern and
northeastern India showed a falling trend during 1941–1999 (Arora et
al. 2005), whereas during 1981–2010, the rise of the tempera-tures
has been limited to northern, central, and eastern/northeastern India,
with the least warming in southern India (Srivastava et al. 2017). An
increase in mean temperature has been observed across India for a
period of 107 years (1901–2007), with the highest rise in the western
Himalayan region (Mondal et al. 2015). The maximum temperature
has increased during all seasons except the monsoon season in the
CRU2.1 dataset (Mitchell and Jones 2005; T. D. Mitchell, T. R.
Carter, P. D. Jones, M. Hulme, and M. New, 2004. “[A
comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for
Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16
scenarios (2001–2100)],” Tyndall Working Paper 55, Tyndall Centre,
UEA, Norwich, UK) for India, and significant increases in the
maximum winter temperature and the minimum post-monsoon
temperature were noted during 1901–2000 (Sonali et al. 2017). In
northeastern India, the temperature has shown an increasing trend
during 1901–2003 (Jain et al. 2013).
An increase of 2–4.8°C in average temperature across India is
expected using 18 CMIP5 models from the 1880s to 2080s
(Chaturvedi et al. 2012). Warming is expected to increase across
India using the PRECIS climate model simulation for 2071–2100,
with night temperatures expected to increase faster than day
temperatures (Kumar et al. 2006). The significant increasing trend
was obtained from the annual maximum (0.05–0.1°C per decade)
and minimum temperature (0.42–0.76°C per decade) at all three
stations (Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna) of the Ganges River basin
using a Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) sim-
ulation of the A2 emission scenario for the period 2001–2100
(Duhan and Pandey 2015).
The annual mean temperature was about 25.06°C during the
period 1951–2014 across India, whereas the mean temperature
has increased about 0.25°C in the last 15 years (2000–2014) com-
pared with 1951–2014 as shown in Fig. 2. Similarly, mean maxi-
mum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased
about 0.28°C and 0.22°C in the last 15 years (2000–2014),
respectively.
River Runoff
3
Although India’s total fresh water resource is 1.91 km =year, India’s
rank in per capita water availability is 132 with 17.2% of the world
population (UNFAO 2013; India-WRIS 2011). The spatial
distribution of water resources is uneven. For instance, in the
northeast of the country, per-capita water resource availability in the
3 3
Brahmaputra River basin is 17,000 m , while it is 240 m in the
Sabarmati basin in western India (Amarasinghe et al. 2005).
In northern India, a declining trend in 41 years (1970–2010) of
daily streamflow records for Sutlej River has been observed at three
gauging locations (Kasol, Sunni, and Rampur). The basin has im-
portance in the high potential for hydroelectricity power generation
and agricultural practices (Singh et al. 2014a). A significantly de-
clining trend in mean annual streamflow in the Beas River and a
decreasing but insignificant trend for the Ravi River is observed,
while winter streamflow in the Chenab River showed a statistically
significant increase during 1961–1995 attributed to variability in
snow and glacier melting (Bhutiyani et al. 2008). A declining trend in
the historical annual streamflow data (1982–2012) of Gomti River
2
(total area of 30,437 km ), a tributary of the Ganges River in
northern India, has been observed at four gauging stations (Neemsar,
Sultanpur, Jaunpur, and Maighat) and is attributed to
 33
Annual Maximum Temperature Mean Tmax (1951-2014)

Annual Maximum Temperature (°C)

Mean Tmax (2000-2014)
32

31

30

29

28

1956

1966

1986

1991

1996

2006

2011
2015
195

196

198

200
19
71

19
76
1

1
Year

21
Annual Minimum Temperature Mean Tmin (1951-2014)
Annual Minimum Temperature (°C)

Mean Tmin (2000-2014)

20

19

18

17
1956

1961

1966

1986

1991

2006

2011
2015
195

197

198

199
1

1
1
9
7

6
2
0
0
1
Year

26
Annual Mean Temperature Mean Temperature (1951-2014)
Annual Mean Temperature (°C)

Mean Temperature (2000-2014)

25

24

23
1956

1961

1971

1981

1986

1991

2001

2006

2011
2015
195

196

199
1

1
9
7
6

Year

Fig. 2. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperature data in India.

a high dependency on the monsoon rainfall (Abeysingha et al. 2016). at the Mundali outlet in the Mahanadi basin attributed to a reduc-
In the Upper Cauvery basin of southern India (catchment area of tion in forest cover by 5.71% for the period 1972–2003.
od

2
36,682 km ), no significant trend has been observed in the monthly
streamflow data of a 30-year period (1981–2010) for four gauging
stations except one (T. Narasipur), where an annual decrease of
3 et al. 2015), by the end of the 21st century. The Brahma-putra River
0.778 m =s in the period 2001–2010 has been observed (Raju and
Nandagiri 2017). In peninsular India, the streamflow at the outlet
(Tikerpara) of the Mahanadi River basin (catchment area of 141,589
2
km ) declined at a rate of 3,388 million cubic meters per decade for
the period of 1972–2007 (Panda et al. 2013). An increase during
1956–2007 in the number of particular flood occurrences in
Bahadurabad in the Brahmaputra River has been recorded (Climate
Change Cell 2009). Dadhwal et al. (2010) reported an increase by
4.53% in the annual stream flow
For the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, the long-
term mean runoff is projected to increase by 33.1, 16.2, and 39.7% in
the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna basins, respectively (Masood
is one of the largest river systems in the world and is fourth with
regard to mean annual discharge (Mirza et al. 2001). The Himalayan
river basins, such as Brahmaputra and Indus, are projected to have
reduced upstream flow based on GCMs for the SRES A1B scenario
over the period 2046–2065 (Immerzeel et al. 2010). Brahmaputra
riverflow at Chilmari is expected to increase by 5–20% in 2100
(Mahanta et al. 2014) based on 22 GCMs and the A1B, B1, and A2
scenarios. Monsoon flow is
expected to increase by 4.5–39.1% at the outlet of lower Meghna
Basin, including the seasonal shifting of flows (Kamal et al. 2013).
An increase of 5.4–17.1% in 2050 in average annual streamflow of
Tungabhadra River is predicted based on HadCM3 GCM and the A2
and B2 scenarios (Meenu et al. 2013). Asokan and Dutta (2008)
projected the highest increase in peak runoff in Mahanadi, i.e., 38%
during September for the period 2075–2100, which is an indication
of increasing flood; and a maximum decrease of 32.5% in average
runoff during April for the period 2050–2075, indicating drought
conditions. An extreme flood event during 1750 caused the diver-sion
of a part of Brahmaputra River to join to the Dihing River, thus
forming Majuli Island, the largest river island in the world. The river
erosion has caused the total area of the island to reduce from 751.31
2 2
km in 1971 to 421.65 km in 2001 at an average rate of 3.43
2 precipitation and temperature over the period 2016–2100. The annual
km =year (Jain et al. 2007; Sarma and Phukan 2004).
Case Study of Two River Basins
For this purpose, two different river basins were chosen to assess the
impact of climate change on hydroclimatology of the regions: Teesta
River basin, located in the highly elevated eastern Himalayan region;
and upper Narmada River basin, located in the moderately elevated
peninsular region. Fig. 3 shows the loca-tion of the river basins in
India and their respective land use/land covers (LULCs). The
precipitation and temperature for both basins were statistically
downscaled using GCM-simulated climatic var-iables. The
downscaled precipitation and temperature were used in hydrological
models (Soil and Water Assessment Tool and MIKE NAM) for
Narmada and Teesta for evaluating the impact of changing climate on
the watershed hydrology and water yield.
Figs. 4(a–c) show the downscaled precipitation and temperature
for upper Narmada basin using Representative Concentration
Fig. 3. Locations of river basins in India and their respective land use and land covers (LULCs).
© ASCE 04018054-4
J. Environ. Eng., 2018, 144(7): 04018054
Pathway (RCP) 8.5 of CMIP5 GCM [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (GFDL CM3)]. There are increasing trends in annual
mean precipitation [Fig. 4(a)], annual mean maximum temperature
[Fig. 4(b)], and annual mean minimum temperature [Fig. 4(c)]. Both
minimum and maximum temperatures are showing an increase of
about 0.5–0.75°C for the 21st century. Soil and water assessment tool
(SWAT) model-simulated streamflow at the Manot gauge station of
the Narmada River basin is shown in Fig. 4(d). There is a significant
3
trend in streamflow, increasing from about 150 to 200 m =s in the
21st century.
Figs. 5(a–c) show the downscaled precipitation and temperature
(maximum and minimum) for Teesta River basin at the Chugthang
gauge station using CMIP5-based RCP8.5 of the Earth System Model
(ESM2M) GCM outputs. This indicates increasing trends in
maximum temperature and minimum temperature have shown
significant warming of 0.02 and 0.13°C, respectively, for the duration
of 2016–2100 with reference to a baseline period of 1979–2005. In
the case of precipitation, the annual precipitation has increased about
450 mm for the period of 2016–2100 with reference to 1979–2005.
The simulated streamflow using MIKE 11 NAM for the period of
2016–2100 shown in Fig. 5(d) indicates the increasing trend over the
period. The streamflow over the Teesta River basin at Chungthang is
3
increased by about 28 m =s for 2016–2100 with reference to 1982–
2005.
Drought
Drought is a spatially extensive event that affects a large number
of populations in India every year. It is a source of concern for
food security and socioeconomic vulnerability given that about
33% of the geographical area is subjected to drought conditions
J. Environ. Eng.
Fig. 4. Statistically downscaled: (a) annual mean precipitation; (b) annual mean maximum temperature; (c) annual mean minimum temperature;
and (d) SWAT model simulated annual mean streamflow over 2016–2100 in Upper Narmada River basin.

Fig. 5. Projected: (a) annual precipitation; (b) annual mean maximum temperature; (c) annual mean minimum temperature; and (d) MIKE11
NAM simulated annual mean streamflow for 2016–2100.

(Mishra and Desai 2005), largely driven by erratic monsoon rains
(Shah and Mishra 2015). Dry lands (arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-
humid) spanning from northwestern to southern India cover about
6 2
2.28 × 10 km (Ministry of Environment and Forests 2010). Over
the last five decades, very severe droughts hit India in the 1960s
(1965), 1970s (1972 and 1979), in the late 1980s (1987), and late
2010s (2009), where more than 40% of the area was affected (Kaur
2009). Extreme dry spells became more frequent in 1981–2010 but
less intense in comparison with 1950–1980 in central India (Singh et
al. 2014b). The Indian Meteorological Department identifies the
arid western meteorological subdivision viz. West Rajasthan and
Saurashtraand Kutch as the most drought affected region in India,
with 31 drought events during 1875–2004 (130 years) (Shewale
and Kumar 2005). The Jammu and Kashmir meteorological sub-
division experienced 28 drought cases; Gujarat, 27. In the north-
east, the lowest number of droughts has been observed (Shewale
and Kumar 2005).
Analysis of the drought trends found an increasing trend in
drought severity and frequency during 1972–2004 in comparison
to 1901–1935 and 1936–1971. A general shift in drought has also
been observed to the agriculturally important coastal southern
India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains (Mallya et
al. 2015). There is increasing severity in meteorological, vegeta-
tion, and short duration droughts in comparison with yearlong
drought figures in the last three decades (Zhang et al. 2017).
Monthly rainfall projections based on five GCMs and three
emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using kernel
regression-based statistical downscaling shows an increase in the
occurrences of extreme dry spells (EDS) over central, southeast
coastal, eastern, and some parts of northeastern India for the 21st
century (Salvi and Ghosh 2016). Results from the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1FI SRES emission
scenario and the E3MG 450-ppm CO2 stabilization scenario of
three GCMs project decline in key drought indicators, such as
aver-age drought frequency, duration, magnitude, and intensity in
the first half of the 21st century (2003–2050) (Jenkins and
Warren 2015). In contrast, under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario
using 17 GCMs, an increased drought frequency is projected in
central northeastern, west central, and peninsular India in the
second half of the 21st century (2050–2099) (Ojha et al. 2012). In
northwestern India, an increasing risk is expected because of
drought, while an increase in wetness is projected in southern
India (World Bank 2013).
Drought conditions across 566 stations in India were assessed
using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al.
1993). Six-month SPI series were calculated at all stations using
monthly rainfall data over 102 years (1901–2002). SPI values
were used to calculate drought variables, such as annual drought
severity (ADS) and annual drought duration (ADD). Fig. 6 shows
the trend analysis for ADS performed using the nonparametric
Mann-Kendall test. Increasing trends for ADS were found for
© ASCE 04018054-6
J. Environ. Eng., 2018, 144(7): 04018054
the northeastern, central eastern, and southern parts of the country.
However, there is a significant increasing trend for ADS in the
northern parts, especially Bihar State. Decreasing trends were found
for the western, northwestern, and southern regions of the country.
The western states, which are generally severely affected by frequent
droughts, had decreasing trends. Agriculturally impor-tant states,
such as Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, had decreasing trends for ADS.
Fig. 7 shows the results for the trend analysis of ADD. The trends in
ADD are similar to trends in ADS. Cropland is the most dominant
land cover in India, covering more than 50% of the area. A consistent
decreasing trend in drought variables was observed for the croplands
spread across the country. However, an increasing trend was
observed for the forests of northeastern India and the Western Ghats.
Glaciers
Changes in a glacier and its extent can influence river runoff and the
availability of water in the Himalayan rivers, like Indus, Ganges, and
Brahmaputra, and agricultural development in India. India has 9,040
2
glaciers, which cover about 18,528 km in the Indus, Ganges, and
Brahmaputra basins (Sangewar et al. 2009; Sharma et al. 2013). The
evidence of long-term mass balance supports a net loss for the Indian
Himalayan glaciers for the last four decades barring a few (Pratap et
al. 2016). For instance, the annual rate of glacial shrinkage is about
0.2–0.7% in the Indian Himalayan region for 11 river basins in the
2
period 1960–2004 with a mean extent of 0.32–1.4 km (Kulkarni et
al. 2011; Bolch et al. 2012). The mass balance of Chhota Shigri
2
Glacier (15.7 km ), located in the Chan-dra River basin of Himachal
Pradesh, showed a net loss of about 1,000 m during 2002–2009
(Ramanathan 2011). Temperatures
J. Environ. Eng.
 Fig. 7. Trend analysis of annual drought duration (ADD) across 566 stations in India over 1901–2002.
reconstructed over the last 400 years using tree ring width data in
2 the vegetation fraction and increase in the urban and bare soil
Gangotri Glacier (area of 143 km and length of 30 km) in
Western Himalaya indicated that increased winter temper-ature is
attributed to high glacial retreat (Singh and Yadav 2000). Satellite
images derived from linear imaging self scanning sensor (LISS-
III) classified maps (2014) indicated the Zemu Glacier, located in
the Sikkim Himalayan region, had a reduction in the snout
portion in comparison with the surveyed toposheet of the Zemu
Glacier region (1935) (Singh 2016).
Implication of Climate Change and Policy Actions
India is a developing country with the largest population of global
poor (30%), and has an agrarian economy, larger coastal lines of
7,517 km, the Himalayan region, and islands. The water resources in
the country are also under the severe threat of climate change in
terms of changes in the magnitude and intensity of rainfall, ground
water recharge, floods, and drought disasters, including contami-
nation of surface water and ground water resources. The National
Water Policy of the Government of India was first enunciated in
1987. The National Water Policy of 2002 emphasized the ecologi-cal
and environmental aspects of water allocation in the rapidly changing
scenario. The National Water Policy (National Water Policy of India
2012) stressed that water needs to be considered a common-pool
resource for the planning and management of water resources.
Despite different polices adopted by the government at different
levels, water law continues to remain inconsistent, and somewhat
inadequate, in the 21st century (Kumar and Bharat 2014) because of
various elements at local, regional, national,
and international echelons and their enforcement issues. Reduction in
fractions have been observed in India. Incorporation of land use and
land cover changes can help improve weather prediction and water
resources management (Unnikrishnan et al. 2016).
China, with the world’s largest population and a booming
economy, depends heavily on the availability of water resources.
Regarding water resources in China, extremely uneven distribution
prevails in terms of spatio-temporal distribution, with northwestern
China being dry and southeastern China being wet. In spring and
autumn, a decreasing precipitation is prevailing, while in winter, an
increasing precipitation is dominant during the period 1956–2000
(Zhang et al. 2012). The annual average temperature is projected to
increase by 1.5–2.7°C in 2040–2069, and 1.9–3.3°C and 2070–2099
under RCP4.5 using 35 climate models from CMIP5, and an increase
in precipitation (ranging from about 2 to 20%) has been found over
most areas of China except the southwest (Wang and Chen 2013).
The spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961–2012
revealed about 143 drought events with a dura-tion of three months
or longer, identified on the basis of the stan-dard precipitation index
(Xu et al. 2015). Enlargement of regional water resources to
strengthen water infrastructure, such as a diver-sion project to
alleviate drought in the north, are planned in mit-igating and adapting
the impacts of climate (Piao et al. 2010).
To combat future water resources problems, there is an urgent
need to strengthen the access to good quality data, upgrade data
collection networks and storage, and promote multidisciplinary
research centers in different parts of the country. This will assist
in making scientific decisions on water and climate change
policy.
Conclusions
The impact of climate change is expected to increase in several re-
gions of the country. Changes in precipitation will affect water re-
sources planning and management in several ways, including design
of hydrological structures, flood and drought management, and urban
planning and development. India’s agrarian economy, which relies
heavily on the monsoon and available water for pro-duction, is
particularly vulnerable to the projected climate changes. Therefore, it
is essential to improve assessment of the climate change effects and
to adapt techniques using future scenarios. Existing water resource
systems have major data collection gaps, including monitoring,
processing, communication, dissemination, and storage networks, and
are unable to meet the projected chal-lenges of a rapidly changing
climate.
The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) was
launched in 2008, which established a guiding national strategy to
address climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation. India
has emphasized a 20% improvement in water use efficiency and
expanding forest cover from 23 to 33% of India’s territory in the
long term (Pandve 2009). Measures must be taken to ensure water
resources security and minimize the causes of climate change and
its adverse effects.
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