Factors Influencing Water Scarcity in Pakistan’s Punjab Province

Introduction
Pakistan is facing a national water scarcity issue, which has been exacerbated by a
rapid population increase, reliance on a single watershed, inadequate water resources
management, and climate change. The purpose of this report is to assess the hydrologic and
climatic factors contributing to Pakistan’s water crisis in conjunction with rapid population
growth. Since the 1960s, Pakistan has gone from being water abundant to water stressed
(Maqbool, 2022). Eighty percent of Pakistan’s water flows from the neighboring country of India,
as a result of the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, which relinquished Pakistani control of the Ravi,
Beas, and Satluj Rivers, three eastern tributaries of the Indus River (Ministry of External Affairs,
1960). This treaty is considered one of the root causes of the current situation in Pakistan due to
conflicts between the nations and resulting in the loss of around 40 million acre-feet of water
entering Pakistan (Salman, 2021). In addition to the loss of water inflow, Pakistan has also
severely depleted their surface and groundwater resources to allocate water for agricultural use
(Maqbool, 2022).
Since Pakistan gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1947, their population
has drastically increased, furthering water scarcity. In 1947, Pakistan’s population was around
32.5 million and the per capita annual water availability was over 5000 cubic meters. Currently,
the population is over 230 million with water availability at 900 cubic meters per person (Khan,
2017; Express Tribune, 2022). The rapid growth of population has increased groundwater
exploitation rates, leading to a decline in water table levels and groundwater quality (Khan et al.,
2008). Population is expected to double over the next century, which will only worsen the
situation (Qureshi, 2019).
The Indus River Basin is a major watershed in Asia, with drainage spanning 1,120,000
km (430,000 mi2) and containing five large tributaries, the Jhelum, Ravi, Beas, Satluj, and
2

Chenab Rivers, which all confluence at the Indus River in the Punjab region of Pakistan.
Pakistan relies solely on the Indus River Basin to supply its water resources, which has proven
to be a vulnerability for the nation (Maqbool, 2022). This basin is heavily dependent on the input
of snow and ice melt runoff from the nation’s northern regions, which currently averages around
50-80% of total input (Maqbool, 2022). In addition, the Indus River Basin has been listed as the
second most stressed aquifer in the world, with over 60% of irrigation, 70% of drinking water,
and 100% of industry in Pakistan relying on it (Maqbool, 2022). A map of Punjab showing the
confluence of the major tributaries at the Indus River is shown below in Figure 1.
 Figure 1. Map of Punjab with the major tributaries of the Indus River shown (Weckenbrock,
2010)

Another issue exacerbating Pakistan’s water shortage is the nation’s mismanagement of

water resources due to a lack of recycling, inefficient consumption, and inadequate storage
(Khan, 2017; Salman, 2021). Pakistan has no real wastewater treatment system in place, only
treating 1% of its wastewater, leading to extreme misuse, as well as one of the most inefficient
irrigation systems in the world, with an efficiency rate of 39% due to poor upkeep (Maqbool,
2022). While over 80% of Pakistan’s water resources are used by four major crops (rice, wheat,
sugarcane, and cotton), these crops only contribute to 5% of Pakistan’s total GDP, a mediocre
payback for a large loss (Maqbool, 2022). In addition, Pakistan only has storage for 10% of its
average annual river flow, well below the global average of 40% (Salman, 2021).
Climate change is perhaps the main factor contributing to water scarcity in Pakistan. Due
to rapid rise in population, economic reliability on unsustainable agriculture, and climate change
induced weather phenomena, Germanwatch has declared Pakistan as one of the top ten most
vulnerable countries to climate change (Eckstein et al., 2021). Water resource depletion such as
rising temperatures, intensifying El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns, and glacial retreat have
also contributed to climate change in the nation. Pakistan is a mostly hyper-arid to semi-arid
nation, with a small majority of the country being classified as sub-humid (Ministry of Climate
Change, 2019). There is large variation in precipitation, with the national average being 280 mm
per year, while the Punjab region receives up to 2000 mm per year (Ministry of Climate Change,
2019). Climate change has caused longer periods of drought, followed by heavy rainfall, which
does not assist percolation and raise the ground water level (Khan, 2017). Continuous periods
of drought have persisted in the Indus River Basin since the end of the 19th century (Durrani,
2018). Rising temperatures will cause further water scarcity due to heightened
evapotranspiration rates and increases in water demand (Khan, 2017). Pakistan’s decadal
mean temperature has risen twice as fast as the global mean temperature between 1981-2005.
While the global rise has been 0.18 °C, Pakistan has experienced a rise of 0.39 °C (Sheikh et
al., 2009). El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns have greatly affected Pakistan, with
ENSO’s warm phase (El Niño) causing intense drought (as seen in the late 1990s and early
2000s) and ENSO’s cold phase (La Niña) causing catastrophic flooding (as seen in 2010). This
pattern of drought and flooding only continues to grow more intense as climate change
increases (Rashid et al., 2019). Pakistan also has large glaciers in the Karakorum Mountain
range directly north of the nation which feed the Indus River Basin with their meltwaters. These
glaciers have been negatively affected by rising temperatures and are rapidly receding (Ministry
of Climate Change, 2019).

Methods
Population data was obtained from Qureshi (2019) and Khan et al. (2008) and then input
into Microsoft Excel to create a graphical representation of Pakistan’s population growth from
independence in 1947 to 2020 and projected growth to 2100.
Raw discharge data was unavailable for public use, so an estimated discharge of the
Punjab province was calculated using monthly precipitation data from Usmani (2021), average
annual evapotranspiration data from Khan (2017), and the area of the Punjab province acquired
from the Consulate General of Pakistan (2016). The data was then converted to a constant unit
and calculated using the water balance equation to estimate discharge (Q).

𝑄 = (𝑃 − 𝐸𝑇)𝐴

As the Pakistani government does not make data available for individual rivers, this
discharge estimation is for the entire Punjab province. Year specific averages of
evapotranspiration were not available, so the calculations were made based upon an average
from 1931-2015 by Khan (2017). It is to be noted that actual discharge would vary from these
results with proper evapotranspiration rates.

Results
Pakistan’s population growth has more than doubled in size since it gained
independence in 1947 and is expected to double by 2100 as shown in Figure 2 below.
 Figure 2. Pakistan’s population growth from 1947-2021, as well as projected growth to 2100

Estimated discharge for the Punjab province of Pakistan is shown below in Figure 3.
This discharge estimation includes all major rivers in the region–the Satluj, Ravi, Beas, Chenab,
and Jhelum. The decrease in discharge during 2000 is due to the most significant drought in the
history of Pakistan because of the El Niño Southern Oscillation which began in 1997 and gained
intensity until it peaked in 2000-2001 (Rashid et al., 2019).

Figure 3. Estimated annual discharge of the Punjab province

The series of maps below in Figure 4 show the climatic normals of Pakistan and include
annual precipitation, annual climate classes, and annual maximum and minimum temperatures.
This figure shows the high variation of normals throughout the Punjab province.
 Figure 4. Climatic Normals of Pakistan (Ministry of Climate Change, 2019)

The map below in Figure 5 shows the levels of water stress in Pakistan, with most
regions of Punjab being labeled as “extremely high (>80%)” or “medium to high (20-40%)”.

Figure 5. Baseline Water Stress Map of Pakistan (Gassert et al., 2014)

Discussion
The findings of this report suggest that Pakistan is on an unsustainable path which will
likely lead in severe water scarcity. This will have detrimental effects on the agricultural and
economic sectors of the nation, as well as worsening conditions for people living in Pakistan. As
climate change is continually intensified, Pakistan will continue to face the issue of water
scarcity. The Pakistani government must act to implement sustainable water management
practices to curb this situation.

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