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Climate change in Pakistan

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Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. As with the changing
climate in South Asia as a whole, the climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the
environment and people. In addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather in parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in
the Himalayas has impacted some of the important rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries
affected by extreme weather caused by climate change.[1]

Contents

Greenhouse gas emissions …

Pakistan's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are less than 1% of the world total, and GHG emissions per
person, at 2 tonnes per year,[2] are less than half the global average.[3] In 2015 GHG emissions totalled
408 million tonnes of CO2eq; of which 43% was from agriculture in Pakistan; and 46% from energy in
Pakistan, such as burning fuel for heat, to power transport, and generate electricity.[4]
Climate change may have
Agricultural GHG are mostly methane and nitrous oxide.[4] Methane comes from belching cattle, sheep been a contributing factor
and goats; manure management; and rice cultivation.[4] Nitrous oxide is mainly from agricultural soils due to the severity of the 2010
to the application of synthetic fertilizers, farmyard manure, and crop residue mixes after burning.[4] Pakistan floods.

Energy GHG is mostly carbon dioxide: in 2019 burning fossil gas, coal and oil each emitted
around 80 million tonnes.[5] It has been suggested that stricter measures against air
pollution in Pakistan might include actions that would also limit GHG emissions, such as
increasing tax on motor fuels.[6] In 2020 Prime Minister Imran Khan said that no more coal-
fired power stations in Pakistan would be given permits.[7] However coal-fired power stations
which have already been given permits are expected to be constructed.[8]

As of 2021, Pakistan has not declared a net-zero year goal, however, it has committed to cut
50% of projected emissions by 2030.[9] In 2022 Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif Pakistan greenhouse gas emissions
said that more solar, wind and hydropower should be built to reduce the fossil fuel import 1990–2016

bill.[10]

Impacts on the natural environment …

Temperature and weather changes …

While the effects of climate change are highly region-specific, it can be said with a high degree of
confidence that mean surface temperatures are rising and extreme weather events will increase over
time. These changes will disrupt expected environmental processes and human activity. The factors
thought to affect climate change can exhibit variability too. Chaotic and periodic variations have
been observed over different regions of the Earth and varying spans of time.[11]
Temperature anomaly in Pakistan
In May 2022, a severe heatwave was recorded in Pakistan and India. The temperature reached 51°C. between 1901 and 2020.
Climate change makes such heatwaves 100 times more likely. Without climate change heatwaves,
more severe that those who occurred in 2010 are expected to arrive 1 time in 312 years. Now they are expected to occur every 3
years.[12]

The climate change projections of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report for South Asia as a whole suggest that heatwaves and humid
heat stress will be more intense and frequent; and that both annual and summer monsoon rainfall will increase, with more variation by
year.[13] Consequently, this will significantly impact the productivity and efficiency of water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and
energy.[14]

General future projections for Pakistan's climate are:[14]

Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be higher than the global average.

Projected temperature increase in northern parts is expected to be higher than the southern parts of the country.

The frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to increase significantly.

Pakistan’s rainfall projections do not indicate any systematic changing trends.

An increasing trend in the rainfall over the Upper Indus Basin and decreasing trend in the Lower Indus Basin.

Past Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Pakistan (1980-2016)

Future Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Pakistan (2071-2100)

Extreme weather events

…
Further information: List of extreme weather records in Pakistan

Extreme weather, such as cyclones or intense monsoons are likely to increase in Pakistan because of
increased sea and atmospheric temperature.[15] Government projections, highlight considerable increase
in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing
frequent and intense floods and droughts.[14][16] For example, between 1998 and 2018 Pakistan reported
more than 150 extreme weather events.[17]

In 2022 catastrophic floods hit the country. The main causes were increased precipitation and glaciers
melting fueled by climate change. One third of the country was under water. According to Climate minister Cyclone 2A making landfall
near Karachi.
Sherry Rehman this "has exceeded every boundary, every norm we've seen in the past,".[18] 33 million
people were affected.[19]

Sea level rise …

Sea level rise along the Karachi coast is estimated at 1.1 mm per year (mm/year) for the period 1856–2000 according to the National
Institute of Oceanography, Pakistan.[20] According to IPCC estimates, the mean rate of global average sea level rise was 1.7 mm/year
between 1901 and 2010, and 3.2 mm/year between 1993 and 2010.[21] This change in sea level is thought to be due to two major
processes, the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of glacier mass. [14]

It is difficult to predict SLR for the entire region of Pakistan since data is limited at the country level. While IPCC estimates predict a
global mean SLR of 0.2–0.6 m by 2100, a rise of 0.7 m is predicted for the region of South Asia (which includes the Pakistan coast).
This SLR will most likely affect low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and Indus River delta more than other
regions of Pakistan.[14]

The impact of SLR on coastal areas and its resources may already be evident in the inundation of low-lying areas, degradation of
mangrove forests, declining drinking water quality, and decrease in fish and shrimp productivity in those regions.[22] The vulnerability
of the Sindh coastal zone is considered higher than the Balochistan coastal areas because of the former's flat tidal topography and
higher population concentration with industrial activity along coastal areas (such as Karachi). This rise in sea level is also expected to
increase the rate of soil erosion along the coastal belt. An 80% reduction in the amount of river sediment as compared to the early
20th century is reported and attributed to the extensive damming of the Indus River. The delta undergoes a natural subsidence
process that ranges from a "sinking" of less than 1 mm/year to more than 10 mm/year. This rate is exceeded due to groundwater and
petroleum extraction. Thus, the erosion, subsidence and lack of sedimentation are resulting in the shrinking and sinking of the Indus
River delta.[14]

According to an NGO head, 3 million acres of land containing many villages have been submerged in the coastal areas of the districts
Thatta, Badin and Sajawal over the past 40 years. This loss of has resulted in the migration of over 1 million people from these districts
to urban centers like Karachi. They further claimed that the construction of dams and diversion of river water have worsened the
situation.[23]

Water resources …

Water availability per capita is projected to decrease.[14]

Glacier retreat …
Supercell Larkana, March
2015
Glacial retreat in parts of the Himalayas poses risks of meltwater flooding.[24] In 2020, melting of a
glacier in Shispare led to evacuations of the village of Hassanabad, Hunza.[25] A 2014 remote
sensing study suggested the situation of glaciers in Pakistan varies between regions of the
country.[26] The devastating 2022 floods were in part driven by glaciers melting.[24]

Impacts on people …

Glacial retreat in Nanga Parbat,

Economic impacts … Gilgit-Baltistan.

The poverty rate of Pakistan, when estimated at $2 per day purchasing power parity, exceeds 50%
of the total population with stark provincial disparities. This high prevalence of poverty, coupled with the lack of and access to
resources, places the country in the low human development category, ranked 146 out of 187 countries, well below the average
human development index value compared to other South Asian countries.[14][27]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for the Asia region noted that the sensitivity of
agriculture-dependent economies (such as Pakistan) toward climate change arises from their distinct geography, demographic trends,
socioeconomic factors, and lack of adaptive capacity that when taken together, determine the climate change vulnerability profile of
the country.[14][28]

Agriculture
…
Future projections for Pakistan are that major crop yields such as of wheat and rice are expected to decrease significantly.[14]

According to research led by Dr. Adil Najam at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, by 2040 the cost of climate change to
agriculture in Pakistan is likely to be up to 7% of productivity but that good climate adaptation practices could result in a net
productivity gain of up to 40%.[citation needed]

The 2022 Pakistan floods mainly caused by increased precipitation and glaciers melting fueled by climate change, destroyed around
50% of the crops of Pakistan what can lead to food shortages.[18]

Migration …
Further information: Demographics of Pakistan

Due to extreme weather and uncertain economic outcomes, rural communities in Pakistan have been displaced in large numbers to
major cities. Experts expect 20% of the population to move to major cities; current migration patterns included 700,000 people a year
moving from rural to urban environments. Larger estimates, including major displacements because of extreme weather, suggest as
many as 20 million migrants from rural to urban communities since 2010.[29]

Mitigation and adaptation …

Mitigation …

The most important targets for mitigation efforts focused on reduction of GHG emissions are the energy and agriculture sectors. In the
energy sector, integration of climate change and energy policy objectives is particularly important as today's investment such as in the
Thar coalfield will "lock in" the infrastructure, fuel and technologies to be used for decades to come. Similarly, the building and
transport infrastructure put in place today should meet the design needs of the future. Therefore, energy efficiency requirements in
building codes and long-term transport planning will prove important.[30]

Policies and legislation …

The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of 2012, framed by the Government of Pakistan as the guiding policy document for the
country on climate change, acknowledges the growing risk of future extreme natural hazards due to climate change. It further
provides a picture of the vulnerabilities faced by individual sectors, ecological regions and socioeconomic classes.[14] The major
climate change threats identified in the report include:

1. Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

2. Increased siltation of major dams caused by more frequent and intense floods;

3. Rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading
to reduced agricultural productivity;

4. Further decrease in the already scanty forest cover, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to allow natural migration of
adversely affected plant species;

5. Increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and the breeding
grounds of fish;

6. Threat to coastal areas due to projected sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures;

7. Increased stress between upper riparian and lower riparian regions in relation to sharing of water resources;

8. Increased health risks and climate change induced migration.[14][16]

Ministry of Climate Change
…
Various programs focused on adaptation and mitigation have been developed within the Pakistani government. Since 2017, a cabinet-
level ministry has led much of that capacity.

This section is an excerpt from Ministry of Climate Change (Pakistan).[edit]

2
The Ministry of Climate Change Urdu: !"%$ # &(' +* ) ,).- /(0 1* 3*4 678
ِ) 7:
9 , wazarat-e- mosmyati tabdeeli (abbreviated as MoCC), is a Cabinet-level
ministry of the Government of Pakistan concerned with climate change in Pakistan. Senator Sherry Rehman is in charge of the ministry
with the status of a Federal Minister.[31]
Reforestation
…
Main article: Deforestation in Pakistan

Pakistan has less than 6% total forest area. This, combined with climate change, exacerbates challenges such as flooding, heat
waves, and soil loss.[32] Starting in 2014, the government started pursuing a Billion Tree Tsunami policy, and in 2018 that policy was
extended to a 10 billion tree, Plant for Pakistan program.[17] During the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan, government agencies
continued their reforestation program, creating 60,000 jobs among the unemployed.[32]

Society and culture …

Public opinion …

According to the BBC Climate Asia report,[33] the majority of the Pakistani people surveyed claimed that climate change has heavily
impacted their lives in the form of floods and droughts, and most importantly has affected the availability of resources such as energy
and water. 53% of Pakistanis felt that their lives had become worse off than they were five years ago. Although the effects of climate
change are evident, the survey found that the majority of the people were unaware of the meaning of climate change, and "ascribed
changes in climate and extreme weather events to the will of God."[33]

See also …

Plug-in electric vehicles in Pakistan Wikimedia Commons has

media related to Climate
2022 Pakistan floods change in Pakistan.

References …

1. ^ Eckstein, David, et al. "Global climate risk index 2020."
Germanwatch (2019).
2. ^ "Per capita greenhouse gas emissions" . Our World in Data.
Retrieved 1 September 2022.
3. ^ "Carbon emissions of richest 1% set to be 30 times the 1.5°C
limit in 2030" . Oxfam International. 5 November 2021. Retrieved
1 September 2022.
4. ^ a b c d "Pakistan. National communication (NC). NC 2" .
unfccc.int. Archived from the original on 14 November 2019.
Retrieved 4 March 2021.
(PDF) 20. ^ M. M. Rabbani et al. (2008). The Impact of Sea Level Rise on
Pakistan’s Coastal Zones - In a Climate Change Scenario. (PDF)
2nd International Maritime Conference at Bahria University, Karach
21. ^ Rhein, M., S.R. Rintoul, S. Aoki, E. Campos, D. Chambers, R.A.
Feely, S. Gulev, G.C. Johnson, S.A. Josey, A. Kostianoy, C.
Mauritzen, D. Roemmich, L.D. Talley and F. Wang. (2013).
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J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].

5. ^ Ritchie, Hannah; Roser, Max (11 June 2020). "CO₂ and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New

Greenhouse Gas Emissions" . Our World in Data. York, NY, USA

6. ^ Sherani, Sakib (26 February 2021). "Combating pollution" . 22. ^ Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. (2011).

DAWN.COM. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
7. ^ "Opinion: Is Pakistan really phasing out coal?" . The Third Pole.
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8. ^ Eco-Business. "Pakistan faces an unexpected dilemma: Too
much electricity" . Eco-Business. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
9. ^ White, Aron (4 November 2021). " 'We don't believe in net zero at
the moment' – Pakistan's top climate official at COP26" . The
Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile. (PDF) Washington
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23. ^ "Climate change triggers widespread Pakistan migration" .
www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 29 April 2020.
24. ^ a b Jones, Benji (30 August 2022). "How melting glaciers fueled
Pakistan's fatal floods" . Vox. Retrieved 2 September 2022.
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Third Pole. Retrieved 23 November 2021. www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2 September 2022.

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PM" . Daily Times. 29 August 2022. Retrieved 1 September 2022.
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Mahowald, and J.-G. Winther. (2013). Introduction. In: Climate
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Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
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Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex
and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
Andrew B. G.; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Roohi, Rakhshan; Sarikaya,
Mehmet Akif; Weihs, Brandon J. (2014), Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Leonard,
Gregory J.; Bishop, Michael P.; Kääb, Andreas (eds.), "Remote
Sensing of Glaciers in Afghanistan and Pakistan" , Global Land Ice
Measurements from Space, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 509–
548, doi:10.1007/978-3-540-79818-7_23 , ISBN 978-3-540-
79818-7, retrieved 2 September 2022
27. ^ "Poverty & Equity Data Portal" . povertydata.worldbank.org.

United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Retrieved 29 August 2022.

12. ^ Rowlatt, Justin (18 May 2022). "Climate change swells odds of 28. ^ Hijioka, Y., E. Lin, J.J. Pereira, R.T. Corlett, X. Cui, G.E. Insarov,

record India, Pakistan heatwaves" . BBC. Retrieved 20 May 2022.
13. ^ "Regional fact sheet - Asia" (PDF).
14. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Chaudhry, Qamar Uz Zaman (24 August 2017).
Climate Change Profile of Pakistan . Asian Development Bank.
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16. ^ ab "Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change" . Archived
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17. ^ ab "Pakistan's virus-idled workers hired to plant trees" .
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18. ^ ab Rannard, Georgina (2 September 2022). "How Pakistan floods
are linked to climate change" . BBC. Retrieved 11 September
2022.
19. ^ Sands, Leo (29 August 2022). "Pakistan floods: One third of
country is under water – minister" . BBC News. Archived from
the original on 29 August 2022. Retrieved 29 August 2022.
R.D. Lasco, E. Lindgren, and A. Surjan. (2014). Asia. In: Climate
Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B:
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Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O.
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29. ^ "Climate change triggers widespread Pakistan migration" .
www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 29 April 2020.
30. ^ "Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change" . Archived from
the original on 5 March 2016. Retrieved 10 May 2015.
31. ^ "MOCC Home Page" . 25 November 2020. Archived from the
original on 3 November 2020. Retrieved 25 November 2020.
32. ^ a b "Pakistan's virus-idled workers hired to plant trees" .
www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 29 April 2020.
33. ^ a b Zaheer, Khadija; Colom, Anna. "Pakistan, How the people of
Pakistan live with climate change and what communication can
do" (PDF). www.bbc.co.uk/climateasia. BBC Media Action.

External links …

Asian Developmental Bank Report on the Climate Change Profile of Pakistan

Climate change in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan

Impact of climate change in Pakistan

IPCC Report on Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Chapter 10: Asia

"Global Warming impacts & Effects on The Climate of Pakistan" PakWeather.com 28 February 2015

Last edited 8 days ago by Regulov

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