Climate change and Pakistan, Global

warming and Pakistan, Impacts and efforts

Country Overview
 In the last 50 years, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan has increased by roughly 0.5°C. The
number of heat wave days per year has increased nearly fivefold in the last 30 years. Annual
precipitation has historically shown high variability but has slightly increased in the last 50 years.
Sea level along the Karachi coast has risen approximately 10 centimeters in the last century.
What is expected
 By the end of this century, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan is expected to rise by 3°C to
5°C for a central global emissions scenario, while higher global emissions may yield a rise of 4°C
to 6°C. Sea level is expected to rise by a further 60 centimeters by the end of the century and will
most likely affect the low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and the Indus
River delta.
The outcome of the expectations
 Pakistan is expected to experience increased variability of river flows due to increased variability
of precipitation and the melting of glaciers.
 Demand for irrigation water may increase due to higher evaporation rates.
 Yields of wheat and basmati rice are expected to decline and may drive production northward,
subject to water availability.
 Water availability for hydropower generation may decline.
 Hotter temperatures are likely to increase energy demand due to increased air conditioning
requirements.
 Warmer air and water temperatures may decrease the efficiency of nuclear and thermal power
plant generation.
 Mortality due to extreme heat waves may increase.
 Urban drainage systems may be further stressed by high rainfall and flash floods.
 Sea level rise and storm surges may adversely affect coastal infrastructure and livelihoods.
Adaptation of the Impact
 development or use of crop varieties with greater heat and drought tolerance.
 modernizing irrigation infrastructure and employing water-saving technologies.
 integrated watershed management.
 reforestation of catchment areas and construction of additional water storage.
 diversification of energy mix including investment in renewable and small hydropower projects.
 improved weather forecasting and warning systems.
 retrofitting of critical energy infrastructure, and construction of dikes or sea walls.
 What steps Pakistan has taken so far
• National Level Policies and Strategic Documents
 Over the past several years, Pakistan has undertaken several policy and planning initiatives with respect to
climate change.
  In 2003, it submitted its National Communication to the UNFCCC, and in  2005 it established the Prime
Minister’s Committee on Climate Change, an overarching body that meets annually to monitor climate
change trends and provide policy guidance.
 In addition, in October 2008, the Planning Commission—the body responsible for preparing the National
Plans for the country’s main economic sectors—established a Task Force on Climate Change that was given
responsibility for preparing the country’s climate change policy. 
 The National Climate Change Policy of 2012 is Pakistan’s guiding document on climate change, setting out
the goal of achieving climate-resilient development for the country through mainstreaming climate
change in the economically and socially vulnerable sectors of the country.
 Approximately 6% of Pakistan’s federal budget during 2010–2014 comprised climate change-related
expenditures, predominantly in energy and transport.
 As described in its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, Pakistan intends to reduce up to 20% of its 2030 projected
greenhouse gas emissions, subject to availability of international grants to meet the cumulative
abatement costs amounting to approximately $40 billion. The country’s adaptation needs have been
identified to range between $7 billion to $14 billion per year..
• National Climate Change Policy 2012 identified the major climate threats:
Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic
monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts;
(ii) Projected recession of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) glaciers due to global warming and
carbon soot deposits from transboundary pollution sources, threatening water inflows into the Indus
River System (IRS)
(iii) Increased siltation of major dams caused by more frequent and intense floods
(iv) Rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid
and semiarid regions, leading to reduced agricultural productivity
(v) Further decrease in the already scanty forest cover, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to
allow natural migration of adversely affected plant species
(vi) Increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus Delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture,
mangroves, and the breeding grounds of fish
(vii) Threat to coastal areas due to projected sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher
sea surface temperatures
(viii) Increased stress between upper and lower riparian regions in relation to sharing of water resources;
and
(ix) Increased health risks and climate change-induced migration.
• To achieve the goal of sustained economic development, the NCCP has
laid out a set of objectives as stated below:
To pursue sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the
challenges of climate change
(ii) To integrate climate change policy with other interrelated national
policies
(iii) To focus on pro-poor gender-sensitive adaptation, while also
promoting mitigation to the extent possible in a cost-effective manner.
To ensure water security, food security and energy security of the country
in the face of the challenges posed by climate change
(v) To minimize the risks arising from the expected increase in frequency
and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and
tropical storms.
• Framework for Implementation of Climate
Change Policy (2013) and Work Program on
Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in
Pakistan.
• On mitigation, pursuant to the Bali Action Plan agreement at the
Conference of Parties (COP) 14 in Bali, Indonesia in 2007, Pakistan is
employing nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) to guide their
emissions below “business as usual” by 2020. The Ministry of Climate
Change, in coordination with other sector ministries already prepared and
submitted eight NAMA to the UNFCCC NAMA registry.16 These mitigation
actions address renewable energy from solar, wind, biomass, and municipal
waste; energy efficiency; waste management; and carbon capture. The
ninth NAMA on solid waste management is ready for registration with
UNFCCC, and the Ministry of Climate Change is currently working on two
additional NAMA plans. One of these addresses renewable energy
solutions for the industrial sector of Sialkot City, Pakistan with the help of
the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN); and the second
one in the pipeline addresses solar water pumping for agriculture
• Ahead of the 2015 Conference of the Parties in Paris (COP21), Pakistan
submitted to the UNFCCCC its intended nationally determined
contribution (INDC) to global mitigation efforts, which was subsequently
updated in November 2016. The INDCs outline the post2020 climate
actions countries intend to take under the global climate agreement,
known as the Paris Agreement, which sets out a global action plan to
limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C-2°C. The Paris Agreement was
adopted at COP21 in Paris, France in December 2015, and entered into
force in 4 November 2016, 30 days after the date on which at least 55
parties to the UNFCCC, accounting in total for at least an estimated 55%
of the total global GHG emissions, have deposited their instruments of
ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession. Pakistan ratified the Paris
Agreement on 11 November 2016.
• On 30 June 2015, the government initiated a project,
“Carbon Neutral Pakistan,” with technical assistance from
the People’s Republic of China to set up a local carbon
market to cut GHG emissions and attract foreign
investments. The total estimated cost of the project is $3.85
million which is reflected in the 2016 public sector
development program (PSDP). This project will help
industrial and other sectors to sell and buy carbon credits
locally, and make internal adjustment of carbon emissions
and credits. The carbon markets are also expected to initiate
a competition for greener technology in the country.
 Prime Minister Imran Khan launched the Clean
Green Pakistan Movement on 8 October 2018 to
help create a clean and green environment of
Pakistan.[9] The annual budget for the year 2018-
2019 is 802.69 million rupees according to the PSDP
Report.
 Prime Minister Imran Khan also launched the 10
Billion Tree Tsunami which aims at planting trees
across the nation in a span of five years in hopes of
reversing decades of deforestation.