Climate change in Pakistan is expected to cause effects on the environment and people in

Pakistan. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of Pakistan has become prone to
change over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue into the future. In
addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather conditions in some parts of the country,
the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas have impact on the some of important rivers of Pakistan.
Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan was ranked the 200th normal affected country in terms of
extreme climate caused by climate change.

Pakistan's weather not alike to other countries around the globe. Pakistan has the technical and
financial capacity to the fight or resist impacts of climate change. Food and water security, are
not major issues of the country. The scientists of Pakistan doing responsible work to feed their
nation. Pakistan's agriculture economy is stable and not greatly affected due to climate change
this because of having four God gifted crop seasons and their people are lucky from the most of
the other countries having such land for agriculture. Like many other South Asian nations,
Pakistan is not at high risk from the climate change effects. General future projections for
Pakistan are expected to be: Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be lower
than the global average; the frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to very low
significantly; major crop yields such as of wheat and rice are expected to decrease significantly;
water availability per capita is projected to not decreased to an alarming level.
Pakistan's Greenhouse gases emissions are less than 1% of the world total, and compared to most
countries' greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions per person are well below average, at under 2 tonnes
per year. In 2015 GhG emissions totalled 408 million tonnes of CO2eq; of which 43% was from
agriculture in Pakistan; and 46% from energy in Pakistan, such as burning fuel for heat, to power
transport, and generate electricity.

Agricultural GhG are mostly methane and nitrous oxide.[6] Methane comes from belching cattle,
sheep and goats; manure management; and rice cultivation.[6] Nitrous oxide is mainly from
agricultural soils due to the application of synthetic fertilizers, farmyard manure, and crop
residue mixes after burning.[6]

Energy GhG is mostly carbon dioxide: in 2019 burning fossil gas, coal and oil each emitted
around 80 million tonnes.

It has been suggested that stricter measures against air pollution in Pakistan might include
actions that would also limit GhG emissions, such as increasing tax on motor fuels.[7] In 2020
Prime Minister Imran Khan said that no more coal-fired power stations in Pakistan would be
given permits.[8] However coal-fired power stations which have already been given permits are
expected to be constructed.[9]
As of 2021, Pakistan has not declared a net-zero year goal, however, it has committed to cut 50%
of projected emissions by 2030.
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes

While the effects of climate change are highly region-specific, its can be said with a high degree
of confidence that mean surface temperatures are rising and extreme weather events will increase
over time. These changes will disrupt expected environmental processes and human activity. The
factors thought to affect climate change can exhibit variability too. Chaotic and periodic
variations have been observed over different regions of the Earth and varying spans of time.[11]

A significant increase of 0.57°C in the annual mean temperature has been recorded for Pakistan
from 1901 to 2000. While this mean change was less than the mean of the South Asian region, a
more accelerated trend of warming of 0.47°C was 1961 to 2007 indicating an increase in the rate
of change of mean temperature. As with all climate and weather effects, the phenomena is
region-specific where some regions indicate slightly lower averages. An overall increase in
extreme temperatures is very likely and will significantly alter expected climate patterns. Further,
most regions report increasing surface mean temperatures, indicating an overall warming trend.

In the hyper arid plains, arid coastal areas, and mountain regions of Pakistan, an increase of
0.6°C–1.0°C in the mean temperature was recorded, with a decrease in summer and winter
rainfall of 10-15% in the coastal belt and arid plains. An 18-32% increase of monsoon rainfall
was recorded for sub-humid and humid areas of the country. In central Pakistan, a 3-5% decrease
of cloud cover is said to have resulted in an increase of sunshine hours, and a recorded increase
in mean temperature of 0.9°C. An increase in the aridity of northern regions, outside the
monsoon belt range has also been reported.

In May 2022 severe heatwave was recorded in Pakistan and India. The temperature reached
51°C. Climate change makes such heatwaves 100 times more likely. Without climate change
heatwaves, more severe that those who occurred in 2010 are expected to arrive 1 time in 312
years. Now they are expected to occur every 3 years.[12]

The climate change projections of the AR5 for South Asia as a whole show that warming is
likely to be above the global mean and climate change will impact the melting rate of glaciers
and precipitation patterns for the region, particularly affecting the timing and strength of the
monsoon rainfall. Consequently, this will significantly impact the productivity and efficiency of
water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and energy.

General future projections for Pakistan's climate are.

Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be higher than the global average.
Projected temperature increase in northern parts is expected to be higher than the southern
parts of the country.
The frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to increase significantly.
Pakistan’s rainfall projections do not indicate any systematic changing trends.
An increasing trend in the rainfall over the Upper Indus Basin and decreasing trend in the
Lower Indus Basin.
Extreme weather, such as cyclones or intense monsoons are likely to increase in Pakistan
because of increased sea and atmospheric temperature. Government projections, highlight
considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with
erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts. For example, between
1998-2018 Pakistan reported more than 150 extreme weather events.
Sea level rise along the Karachi coast is estimated at 1.1 mm per year (mm/year) for the period
of 1856 - 2000 according to the National Institute of Oceanography, Pakistan. According to
IPCC estimates, the mean rate of global average sea level rise was 1.7 mm/year between 1901
and 2010, and 3.2 mm/year between 1993 and 2010. This change in sea level is thought to be due
to two major processes, the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of glacier mass.

It is difficult to predict SLR for the entire region of Pakistan since data is limited at the country
level. While IPCC estimates predict a global mean SLR of 0.2–0.6 m by 2100, a rise of 0.7 m is
predicted for the region of South Asia (which includes the Pakistan coast). This SLR will most
likely affect low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and Indus River delta
more than other regions of Pakistan.

The impact of SLR on coastal areas and its resources may already be evident in the inundation of
low-lying areas, degradation of mangrove forests, declining drinking water quality, and decrease
in fish and shrimp productivity in those regions. The vulnerability of the Sindh coastal zone is
considered higher than the Baluchistan coastal areas because of the former's flat tidal topography
and higher population concentration with industrial activity along coastal areas (such as
Karachi). This rise in sea level is also expected to increase the rate of soil erosion along the
coastal belt. An 80% reduction in the amount of river sediment as compared to the early 20th
century is reported and attributed to the extensive damming of the Indus River. The delta
undergoes a natural subsidence process that ranges from a "sinking" of less than 1 mm/year to
more than 10 mm/year. This rate is exceeded due to groundwater and petroleum extraction.
Thus, the erosion, subsidence and lack of sedimentation are resulting in the shrinking and sinking
of the Indus River delta.

According to an NGO head, 3 million acres of land containing many villages have been
submerged in the coastal areas of the districts Thatta, Badin and Sajawal over the past 40 years.
This loss of has resulted in the migration of over 1 million people from these districts to urban
centers like Karachi. They further claimed that the construction of dams and diversion of river
water have worsened the situation.
Climate change has caused drastic effects in the world climate, such as the rise of carbon dioxide
level, global temperature, melting of ice sheets, rise of sea levels, and ocean acidification. For
this change, a range of human activities is responsible. As per NASA, 97 percent of climate
scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human
activities, for instance, the rapid emission of carbon dioxide that has resulted in global warming.
We, therefore, need a broad-based consensus at international level and a firm commitment at the
national level to fight to diminish the aftermath of climate change.

Human activities are the major cause of climate change. The foremost cause is global warming.
Burning fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide. Due
to expansion of the greenhouse effect, global warming has risen. As per this phenomenon, gases
such as water vapors, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons in our
atmosphere prevents the heat to leave the earth’s atmosphere; resultantly, the ozone layer
depletes and the temperature rises. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there is a more than 95 percent probability that human
activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet. Industrial activities that our modern
civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per
million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there is a better
than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in earth’s temperatures
over the past 50 years. About half of the CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 2010, have occurred
in the last 40 years.
Deforestation and increase in the use of chemicals in domestic and agriculture life is another
reason of climate change. Deforestation is the second leading cause of global warming and
produces about 24 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists say that deforestation
in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than the sum total of all the
cars and trucks on the world’s roads.
The surge in the uses of chemicals in domestic as well as in agriculture, in the shape of
fertilizers, also plays its role in climate change. The high rate of application of nitrogen-rich
fertilizers has effects on the heat storage of cropland (nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-
trapping capacity per unit of volume than carbon dioxide) and the run-off of excess fertilizers
creates ‘dead zones’ in our oceans. In addition to these effects, high nitrate levels in groundwater
due to over fertilization are cause for concern for human health.