Countervailing the climate crisis

Pakistan presents some of the most breathtaking landscapes, with glacier-topped mountain
ranges in the north to the sea and desert in the south. But the same climatic and topographical
diversity makes it among the top 10 countries that are most vulnerable to climate
change.Code:224003)

The last decade has seen Pakistan battered by the full force of nature’s wrath, with erratic rainfall
triggering a devastating deluge in one year and causing severe droughts in the next. The
unpredictability of global climate change, characterised by extreme events, has led to
destabilised glaciers, cyclones, urban flooding, landslides and record-breaking heatwaves, which
led to hundreds of deaths in Karachi in 2015 and produced sizzling temperatures. Against this
backdrop and with the elections around the corner, it is time for political parties to address the
risks of climate change and strategise solutions to tough climate-related problems.

According to the Paris Agreement, the global temperatures must not increase beyond 1.5 degrees
Celsius to three degrees Celsius by the end of the century, as against the three degrees Celsius to
six degrees Celsius rise in annual mean temperature projections for Pakistan for the same period
under different scenarios. As things stand now, we have a one degree Celsius increase in
temperature. But it is time to take some crucial decisions. While we may not be the chief
suspects responsible for this state of affairs, the list of challenges confronting us is quite long.

The increasing temperatures are directly linked to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs).
These GHGs include the naturally-occurring gases – like carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour
and nitrous oxide – and the synthetic ones – such as chlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons,
perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.

Due to the trend of global warming, the number of heatwave days per year has increased by
nearly fivefold over the last 30 years. This may cause deaths, and impinge on water availability
and agricultural productivity. The extraordinarily high summer temperatures are likely to also
increase the demand for electricity and air-conditioning, bringing power generation under
increasing stress.
In our case, the transport, energy and farming sectors, and waste are the largest contributors of
the GHG emissions. The countrywide temperature profile is further complicated by massive
deforestation across all regions.

Traffic emissions are a major source of GHGs and particulate matter. In many urban centres, the
latter can be witnessed as a perpetual presence in the form of a thick layer of haze that
complicates the respiratory sickness profile due to unchecked traffic emissions.

Pollution is often attributed to old vehicles. But it is critical to employ cleaner and alternative
fuels to cut down on harmful emissions. Taxation regimes that favour cleaner fuels are an
essential policy intervention that our political parties must focus on.

In the farming sector, cow dung and the use of flood irrigation in paddy cultivation are the
biggest sources of methane and a strong trigger for temperature increases. Cow dung is often
utilised for biogas generation and is being aggressively employed across the world as a
renewable, cleaner and stable source of electricity. The IAEA energy forecasts cite the potential
of bioenergy in meeting over a quarter of global demands for transportation fuels by 2050.
Through political will, a favourable tax regime, and subsidies, biogas has the potential to
overcome domestic fuel needs, provide multiple socioeconomic benefits to farmers, and slash
GHG emissions.

The use of flood irrigation for rice cultivation is another major source of methane. A government
policy that enforces a shift towards furrow and drip irrigation techniques would not only save
water by as much 10 times, but would also reduce global warming.

A major reason for our high GHG profile is the incessant deforestation that has reduced forest
cover to less than four percent. The accepted principle is to have at least 20 percent of forest
cover to moderate weather conditions, normalise precipitation variability, increase moisture in
the atmosphere by bringing temperature down, and cause cloud formation. In addition, it controls
soil erosion and absorbs particulate matter.

In our country, the oil, gas and coal lobbies are quite influential in the policy circles. Oblivious to
environmental concerns, several o power plants are employing coal, which has contributed to a
smog in Punjab and other problems. The political commitment must be to bind the coal-power
industry to control GHG emissions by installing mandatory filters and super-critical boilers to
cut down harmful emissions. We also need to move towards a power mix and shun
environmentally costly projects.

Alongside the coal power plants that emit noxious gases and smoke, brick kilns across Punjab
burn old tyres as a cheap source of fuel, emitting thick black smoke that comprises GHG and
contributes to the smog nuisance in Punjab. Aligned with this is the burning of the residue of rice
and sugarcane crops, which has emerged as a major source of smog in Punjab as well as a source
of glacial destabilisation. It is time for the provincial administration to help farmers remove
agricultural waste from farms. A useful policy enforcement could be to use threshers that remove
rice from the plant and run ploughs over it, returning nutrients to the soil as an organic fertiliser.
The same treatment could be employed for the sugarcane crop residue.

Rising temperatures are causing glaciers to recede, which could make future water availability a
serious challenge. Pakistan has over 7,000 glaciers spread across three mountain ranges: the
Himalayas, the Hindu Kush and the Karakoram Range. The glaciers across the Himalayas and
the Hindu Kush are increasingly becoming unstable, leading to avalanches and flashfloods from
the glacial lakes, which are formed as a result of enhanced melting – a phenomenon referred to
as glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).

The Ministry of Climate Change has recently identified that the number of glacial lakes have
alarmingly increased to 3,000 from 2,400 in 2010 in and around Gilgit-Baltistan and parts of
Chitral. The ministry reports that as many as 50 GLOFs that can burst from its seams “anytime”,
wreaking havoc on people living in nearby villages.

The culprit once again are the rising temperatures due to GHGs in the atmosphere from traffic
emissions – which are expected to rise to high levels with CPEC taking shape – and the wind
cycle from Punjab in winter that are laden with GHGs emitted from the burning of crop waste. In
addition, the wind flows from the eastern side, which is laden with carbon from the steel
smelting units from across the border, can also be blamed for this. We pay a high environmental
cost as carbon from all these sources settles on ice and stimulates aggressive melting.
The change in the snowfall patterns due to the warming tendency is hampering glacial
development. Over the years, snowfall occurs right near the end of winter. While the snow has
hardly started to consolidate and turn into a glacier, the summer season melts away the still-soft
snow.

The threat to the glaciers can be controlled in the long term if deforestation is reversed by
planting poplar and eucalyptus trees alongside the slow-growing indigenous pine species. A
useful policy intervention could be to use the hydel-solar fuel mix to reap maximum benefits. In
summer, hydel power generation could address power deficiencies. In winter, solar energy could
meet heating requirements. The regeneration of forest cover along the CPEC route could also
help absorb aggravated traffic emissions and offset harmful GHG emissions.

Another immediate and grave threat to glaciers is rapid urbanisation in the mountainous areas.
This is a sensitive issue and a balanced approach to outlaw real estate is required in certain
vulnerable areas. We must also develop small urban units with intermingled green zones to
countervail the environmental damage.

Email: amjad.siddiqi@thenews.com.pk