Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Analysis in Nepal

Sabitri Kumari Sharma (Subedi

Gandaki Boarding School and College of Engineering and Science

Email: sabitrikumarisharma@gbs .edu.np

Introduction

The susceptibility of a system to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and
extremes, is known as climate change vulnerability. Nepal's development agenda is being
significantly impacted by climate change, particularly changes in precipitation patterns, glacial melt
timing and rates, which could affect agriculture, biodiversity, and hydropower energy production.
Floods and landslides, often caused by heavy rainfall, are common in Nepal, while droughts are
increasing. Poverty is exacerbated by these direct and indirect impacts, with 21 percent of the
population living under the Poverty Line as of the 2018 plan year book. Nepal ranked fourth in the
Global Climate Risk Index 2017, and climate change is expected to cause more frequent landslides in
the Himalayan region, including Nepal. In 2019, Nepal experienced flash floods and landslides across
the southern border, resulting in damages worth $600 million according to NASA (Himalayan Times,
21 February 2020).

The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased in most land regions. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a Special Report in October 2018 titled
"Global Warming of 1.5°C," which aimed to assess the impact of a 1.5°C climate change compared to
a 2°C change. The report investigated the effects of past global warming of the same degree and
found trends of increasing intensity and frequency of weather extremes during the past 0.5°C global
warming. The report also identified a higher likelihood of droughts and heavy precipitation in some
regions under a climate change of 2°C compared to 1.5°C. The IPCC's Global Warming of 1.5°C report
is closely related to the Paris Agreement, as stated in Article 2 of the agreement, which aims to limit
the temperature increase to 1.5°C and hold the global average temperature increase to well below
2°C.

Results and discussions

Analysis in Rise in temperature induced climate change and hazards

The planet's average surface temperature has increased by about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1
degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, mainly due to increased carbon dioxide and other
human-made emissions into the atmosphere. The majority of this warming occurred in the past 35
years, with the five warmest years on record happening since 2010. 2016 was the warmest year on
record, and eight of the 12 months that year were the warmest on record for those respective
months, except for June. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the year 2019 was
the second warmest year on record after 2016. The highest temperatures for the five-year (2015-
2019) and ten-year (2010-2019) periods were also recorded. Each decade since the 1980s has been
warmer than the previous one, and this trend is expected to continue due to the record levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. In
2018, global CO2 concentration reached 407.8 parts per million (ppm), 2.2 ppm higher than in 2017.
Carbon dioxide emissions reached a record high of 37 billion tons of CO₂ in 2019, with no sign of a
peak in global emissions, even though they are growing slower than the global economy.
A study conducted in 1999 by Shrestha et al. found that temperatures were rising in Nepal, and
rainfall was becoming more variable. A modelling exercise conducted in 2009 by a team of experts
from Nepal, America, Britain, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, using IPCC's 2007 emissions scenarios, also
confirmed that temperatures will increase in Nepal, particularly in the mid-hills, and that the region
is likely to become more arid during non-monsoon seasons. The exercise also suggested that
precipitation will be more uncertain, and storm intensity will increase. The report on the exercise
stated that the temperature over Nepal is projected to increase by 0.5°C to 2.0°C by the 2030s, and
by 3.0°C to 6.3°C by the 2090s, based on global circulation model (GCM) projections. GCM outputs
also suggest that extremely hot days are projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and up to
70% by the 2090s.

Global circulation model (GCM) projections indicate that extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of
nights in the period from 1970 to 1999) in Nepal are likely to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and
93% by the 2090s. The Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) conducted a modeling
exercise using GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) and projected that mean annual
temperature will increase by 1.4°C by 2030, 2.8°C by 2060, and 4.7°C by 2090. Similarly, the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) used GCMs with the low emissions
scenario and projects mean annual temperature increases of 1.2°C by 2030, 1.7°C by 2050, and 3°C
by 2100 relative to a pre-2000 baseline. Both projections predict that winter temperatures in Nepal
will become warmer.

According to the NCVST study, western and central Nepal will experience higher temperature
increases compared to eastern Nepal in 2030, 2060, and 2090. The OECD predicts a 5-10% increase
in winter precipitation in western Nepal, but no change in eastern Nepal. However, both the NCVST
and IPCC project an increase in monsoon rainfall, particularly in eastern and central Nepal, with the
mid-hills experiencing less rain during this period. GCM projections show a wide range of
precipitation changes, with monsoon rainfall ranging from a 14% decrease to a 40% increase by the
2030s and a 52% decrease to a 135% increase by the 2090s. The DHM has supported the NAP
formulation process by publishing a report in June 2017 on climatic trends in Nepal, with technical
inputs from the ICIMOD and DHM. The report suggests that temperature variables are expected to
increase continuously throughout the 21st century, with mean temperature rising by 0.9-1.1°C in the
medium-term period and 1.3-1.8°C in the long-term period. This could lead to more frequent and
severe extreme climate events.

Farmers in Nepal have reported changes in weather patterns, including erratic and unseasonal
precipitation, hotter days, and altered wind, fog, and hailstorm patterns, making them more
vulnerable. Research has confirmed these perceptions, and the National Adaptation Plan of Action
(NAPA) acknowledges that climate uncertainty will increase vulnerability in the country. Agriculture
is a critical source of sustenance for the predominantly rural population, and climate change is
expected to have significant impacts on farming systems. Reduced water availability during dry
periods could worsen agricultural water needs, and planting and harvesting seasons have already
been slowly changing due to the shifting monsoon, which could become more erratic in the future.
Global cooperation is needed to address climate change, as greenhouse gas emissions from any
country can impact the atmosphere and require commitments from all major emitting countries to
effectively combat the issue.

Consequences of climate change.

1. Glacial lake outburst

Nepal has 20 glacial lakes that are considered to be potentially dangerous, and three of them - Tso
Rolpa, Imja, and Thulagi - are in urgent need of attention to prevent the risk of glacial lake outburst.
The melting of glaciers due to climate change not only poses a threat to the people living in the
mountains of Nepal, but also to millions of others living along South Asian Rivers and in the delta
basin of Bangladesh, with negative impacts on development. Glacial lakes are formed between the
end of a glacier and its moraine, and there are 2,323 of them in Nepal, covering an area of 75 square
kilometers. When the moraine dam is breached, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) can occur,
causing damage to local infrastructure and taking lives. The challenge of adapting to climate change
has emerged as a significant obstacle to achieving and maintaining development outcomes, as
mitigation efforts are not keeping pace with the problem.

2.Monsoon Rainfall

Monsoon normally starts from the second week of June (10 June) and retreats in the fourth week of
September (23 September). Monsoon is the wettest season and is the main source of precipitation in
Nepal. Monsoon season contributes on an average 79.8 percent of the total annual precipitation of
the country. Climate change impacts the amount of water in the atmosphere and will increase
producing violent downpours instead of steady showers when it does rain. The high precipitation
pocket areas in monsoon season are Kaski, Sindhupalchok and Sankhuwasabha Districts. The driest
regions – Mustang, Manang and Dolpa receive less than 150 mm while the wettest region Kaski
receives more than 4,500 mm of rainfall during the monsoon season Hydrology and meteorology
department, kaski ). The pattern of rainfall is experienced unseasonably and violent. Excessive
precipitation can also degrade water quality, harming human health and ecosystems. Storm water
runoff, which often includes pollutants like heavy metals, pesticides, nitrogen, and phosphorus, can
end up in lakes, streams, and bays, damaging aquatic ecosystems and lowering water quality for
human uses.

3. Flooding and Impact on Agriculture and Life

Floods during the monsoon are a natural phenomenon in Nepal. The country's more than 6,000
rivers and rivulets, with a total of 45,000 km in length, support irrigated agriculture and other
livelihoods, but also wreak havoc in valleys and in the tarai when they overflow. The river drainage
density of 0.3 km/ km2 is an indication of how close the drainage channels are (Shankar, 1985) and,
in consequence, how susceptible they are to floods. Flooding damages crops and property and often
results in epidemics. The poor are the most vulnerable to its effects. Along with regular monsoon
floods, the country also has two special types of floods: the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and
the bishyari. A bishyari is a flood that occurs when a landslide which dams a river is breached by the
reservoir of water which forms upstream of it and it is unpredictable.
In 2013, avalanches killed 16 people in Mt. Everest that was associated with climate change. In 2012,
more than 60 people, three Ukrainian tourists among them, were killed in the popular Mount
Annapurna region in western Nepal. Not only mountains, the cities like Pokhara, Chitwan are equally
impacted by climate change. In 2012, Pokhara experienced devastating floods originating from
Glacier Lake Outburst Flood. While in Chitwan, People are experiencing warmer days than ever. The
analysis found potentially high impacts in the Terai region, especially for rice and wheat production,
but a varied pattern in the hills and mountains, including some potential benefits. By the 2080s, net
agricultural losses in Nepal are estimated to be the equivalent per year of around 0.8% of current
GDP. The productivity of rice, the staple food of more than one third of the world’s population,
declines 10% with every 1⁰ C increase in temperature. (National Climate Assessment)

Incessant rainfall in the month of July in 2019, 29 people were killed and displaced 2,065 households
in Central and Eastern part of the country. Recorded highest rainfall for 24 hrs (11-12 July) was 311.9
mm at Simara, Bara, and 245 mm was recorded in Janakpur. The communications systems are semi-
functioning in the worst affected areas.The most affected districts were Sarlahi, Mahottari and
Rautahat.

Rural roads in some areas of the southern parts of Terai districts remain inaccessible, and water
logging and associated damages in some locations in the southern part of Saptari, Rautahat and
Mahottari continued to pose operational challenges.

According to the National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOCO) as of 19 July 2019, 90 people died
as a result of ongoing heavy Monsoon rains. The Nepal Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA) and Nepal
Survey Department report that 11,839 were displaced. Within 7 days, 92 landslides and 83 floods
had affected the country. (Govt. of Nepal, 19 Jul 2019)

Heavy rainfall on 11-12 July caused landslides and flooding in 32 Districts across Nepal. Flooding was
most severe in 11 Terai districts of Provinces 1 and 2. A large loss of life and damages to assets,
housing, water and sanitation infrastructure, food stocks, crop and livestock all had a significant
impact on food security in the region. An estimated 212,000 people’s food security was significantly
affected as a result of the flooding, of which 101,600 people, or 17,400 households, were deemed to
be the most in need of assistance. (Govt. of Nepal, 23 Jul 2019)

Various highways and main roads closed due to floods and landslides triggered by heavy rainfall.
Rivers Bagmati (in Karmaiya Town) and Riukhola (in Bankatta Town) were reached above danger
level. (ECHO, 24 Jul 2019).As of 29 July, 115 people had been confirmed dead (ECHO, 29 Jul
2019).Many households in flooded areas had lost food stock from the winter harvest. Within the
most affected communities of each district, losses were largest in Siraha, Rautahat, Sarlahi and
Mahottari, with 40-80% of households having lost upwards of 75% of their food stock. (Govt. of
Nepal, 30 Jul 2019)

Overall, the direct annual economic costs of climate change on water-induced disasters at a national
level were estimated to be an additional US$100–200 million/year or equivalent to 0.6–1.1% of
current GDP per year by mid-century in current prices.

4. Aridity and Drought

The obvious impacts of climate change on food production and food security at the local level are
likely to be compounded by other on-going processes. Farmers are finding drier conditions difficult
for crops such as corn and wheat, and once prime growing zones are now threatened. Hill
agriculture has been in decline over the past one-and-a-half decades despite significant effort and
resources invested by both the government and the donor community, primarily because of the
effects of Nepal's recently concluded armed conflict. As production has declined, local populations
have become increasingly dependent on imported food and thus on the conditions of global
markets. Nepal is experiencing various natural disasters such as flash floods, hailstones, landslides,
mass movement, soil erosion, and avalanche, thereby affecting the agriculture systems. The level of
vulnerability, however, will be dependent on both socioeconomic and environmental factors. In
Nepal, approximately 85% of the population live in rural areas, and thus, concern has been
expressed by many researchers and organizations that climate change is undermining the rural
economy who typically depend on climate-sensitive natural resources.

5. Hydroelectricity

Jiri Khola is not the only hydropower project to be affected by climate change, developers say. In
2009 the Jhimurk River in western Nepal, fell to a record low due to prolonged drought. As a result,
the 12 MW Jhimruk hydropower project couldn’t provide the energy it was contracted to supply to
the grid (the thirdpole.net). Jure landslide occurred in August 2014 brought down a whole mountain
side and blocked the river. Landslides that hit the entire Jure bazaar in Mankha of Sindhupalchok,
killing an unknown number of people, went on to block the course of the Sunkoshi River. The river
blockage, on the other hand, has imposed a threat of outburst, threatening thousands of people
living downstream, and inundated upstream. Nearly 10% of the nation’s hydro-power capacity, some
67 MW, was severed by the landslide, submerging a 5 megawatt power plant and disconnection of
the power supply with 45 MW Bhotekosi hydropower and 10 megawatt Sunkosi hydropower and
washed out over 400 houses, killing over 200 people. Currently more than 8,000 MW of hydropower
projects are under construction or in the pipeline. (Pathak 2010)

However, experts now fear that Nepal’s billion dollar hydropower industry will be left highly
vulnerable if climate change is not taken into consideration. Climate change affects dry season flows
and reservoir storage recharge, and thus future electricity generation sectors are potentially large
but uncertain, varying by climate projection, river catchment and over time. New safeguards are
needed to protect existing and future projects on Himalayan Rivers.

6.Endangered Animals of Nepal

Nepal is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Nepal’s wildlife is in massive threats
because of rising heat. Human-wildlife conflicts and habitat degradation are the two major problems
in our country. The climate projections indicate that more habitat conversion and transition will
occur in the Lowlands and mid-hills, increasing the level of threat. Natural disasters due to climate
change have some impacts like insecurity, reproduction, food supply on these animals:

Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens)

Snow Leopard (Uncia uncia)

Himalayan Musk Deer (Moschus leucogaster)

Ganges River Dolphin (Platanista gangetica)

As climate change continues to impact the region, both people and nature will have to struggle with
declining pasture productivity, water insecurity and extreme weather. Many forest mammals,
including a high proportion of threatened forest species, depend on moist forests and are likely to
lose their habitat if the climate becomes drier. High alpine areas are also likely to be significantly
affected by climate change with resulting consequences to high altitude species such as the Snow
Leopard and its prey species. We must act differently, faster and more decisively before it is too late
and species are being lost forever.

Efforts to Control Hazards due to Climate Change and Adaptation to Climate Change

Faced with a growing risk of weather and climate related disasters that can set back economic and
social development for years. It is needed to serve more elaborate societal needs, minimize growing
economic losses from natural hazards and help countries adapt to climate change is increasing the
importance of weather, climate and water information. Weather, climate and water affect societies
and economies through extreme events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, high winds, storm surges
and prolonged droughts, and through high impact weather and climate events that affect demand
for electricity and production capacity, planting and harvesting dates, managing construction,
transportation networks and inventories, and human health. Addressing the problems of climate
change Nepal also prepared National Framework on Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) in 2011
to implement prioritized adaptation actions at the local level and ensure integration of climate
change adaptation into local and national planning processes. In 2011, Nepal formulated Climate
Change Policy to streamline climate change initiatives in the country and fostering a low-carbon
energy economy requires tackling problems simultaneously from legal, economic and security
perspectives. CIGI’s research brings new ideas and concrete proposals for financing sustainable
development, promoting conservation and growth in the blue economy, implementing carbon
pricing mechanisms, Arctic governance, and incorporating human rights and engaging Indigenous
peoples in climate strategy and action.

8. Hariyo Ban

Funded by USAID and implemented by WWF, CARE, the Federation of Community Forestry Users
Nepal, and Nepal's National Trust for Nature Conservation, Hariyo Ban is an ambitious and expansive
partnership designed to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and threats to biodiversity.

* Sustainable landscape and biodiversity conservation

61,244 people benefiting from economic activities including skills training, agriculture, and green
enterprises like beekeeping, growing broom grass, and cardamom plantations

* Two payments for ecosystem services projects implemented in the Phewa and Marshyangdi water
catchments

* Policy documents on forest management and products, biodiversity, and climate mitigation
supported by Hariyo Ban
* 147,375 people benefiting from alternative energy sources. This includes: 18, 929 improved cook
stoves and 6, 143 biogas units are distributed

* Access to banking, credit and insurance products which spread risk before, during and after
extreme events.

The study, a collaboration between scientists from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt,
Maryland; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Washington; and
Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, was based on satellite estimates and modelled
precipitation data to project how changing rainfall patterns have high affect landslide frequency in
the region. The possibility of glacial lake outburst is high and the river basin system is adversely
affected. It may happen that in the next 50, 60 or 70 years, the main river system turn into a
seasonal river—flowing only during the torrential rainy season—because all the glaciers will have
disappeared. In this regard, Nepal has been seeking the international agreement in different
conferences but Nepal receives first-ever climate change project grant from Green Climate Fund.
The 24th board meeting of the fund in Sangdo, South Korea has approved the first funding proposal
of Nepal—one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of the climate crisis.The meeting has
given the green signal to awarding a $39.3million grant to the project titled ‘Building Resilient Churia
Region in Nepal (BRCRN)(Mandal ).

Similarly, from the side of nepal government,the Madhev kumar led government had held the
cabinet meeting at Everest Base Camp in 2009 with the slogan of ‘Save the Himalayas’ (The
Diplomat). The first National Climate Change Conference held at the scenic Gufadanda in Malachi
Municipality-9 in Sindhupalchowk district successfully concluded on 1 January 2020 by issuing the
10-point Sindupalchowk declaration paper. It aims to institutionalize climate change-friendly plans
and policies and promote climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies at the national,
provincial and local level (UNDP, Nepal. The title of dialogue is ‘’Climate Change Mountain and the
Future of Humanity’ ’after attending the UN Climate Action Summit on 23 September 2019 boosted
ambition and accelerated actions to implement the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The event
saw 77 countries commit to lowering greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. (WMO)

Suggestions and conclusion

Access to a range of economic and livelihood options. It will help locals in adapting to the changing
climate

Basic language and other skills necessary to understand risks and shift livelihood strategies as
necessary.

Right to organize and to have access to voice concerns through diverse public, private and civil
society organizations.

Knowledge generation, planning and learning to the vulnerable group for strengthening the
country’s institutional capacities to access the funds.

Right utilization of international fund and follow up ongoing projects regarding climate change
vulnerability and its impacts

The social and scientific basis required to learn from experience, proactively identify hazards, analyze
risk and develop response strategies that are tailored to local conditions. WWF Nepal has been
working on a project proposal which will be based in the West Seti area. Likewise, the UNDP Nepal is
working on a project proposal to safeguard lives and livelihoods against the project to protect lives
and livelihoods against flood and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) targeting finance from the
Green Climate Fund.

International Union for Conservation of Nature-Nepal is also developing a project proposal for
building ecosystem and community resilience which is likely to be submitted for approval in coming
March—the first one to go for approval among others in the pipeline, according to Rai.

“What is important now is how we effectively utilize the money and use it for making the
community's climate resilient at the ground level. Learning from these ongoing projects will help in
securing other project funding.’’(Chhetri 2019).

Present and future impact of climate change upon life and economy of Nepal neither is exactly
measurable nowadays, nor can be predicted quantitatively with large accuracy. Yet, it is sure that
modified weather will influence hydrological cycles, glaciers’ down wasting, floods and droughts
patterns for the year to come, and food security in many ways. I here proposed a short review of the
recent state of the art concerning the direct impact of climate on crop production, and subsequently
on food security. Nepal is heavily vulnerable to climate change for geographical, social, and
economical reasons, including lack of own resources, and energy, and the need for support from
foreign donors. There is a need to enhance the human capacity both at the technical and community
level.

Existing institutions with expertise in climate and water resources monitoring should develop
training modules aimed at enhancing capacity among staff working in sectors impinging on water
resources and relevant sectors.

In recent years, Nepal has fallen into the list of countries that are facing the brunt of a changing
climate and its associated impacts despite doing little in the past or present to amplify global
warming. Nepal is one of the fourth most vulnerable countries in the world in terms of climate
change effects which are already evident in various sectors. Adaptation plans need to be developed
on the basis of a strong scientific foundation and reliable evidence (Gov.2019).

Overall, the findings from the study suggest that precipitation and temperature will be higher in the
future. Specifically, temperature variables are expected to increase continuously throughout the
century. Annual precipitation might increase overall but vary seasonally. Extreme climatic events,
especially related to temperature, are likely to be more frequent and more severe. As stated, these
changes would have a serious impact on different sectors, such as water, energy, biodiversity,
agriculture, and livelihoods. As a poor and mountainous country, at the higher risk of climate change
and induced disasters, adaptation and mitigation,Nepal looks up to facilitation for the gradual
change with support from international communities can be the important entry points.

Thank you