Global Climate in 2015-2019: Climate

change accelerates

Record greenhouse gas concentrations mean further warming

Geneva, 23 September 2019 - The tell-tale signs and impacts of climate change
– such as sea level rise, ice loss and extreme weather – increased during 2015-
2019, which is set to be the warmest five-year period on record, according to the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere have also increased to record levels, locking in the warming
trend for generations to come.

The WMO report on The Global Climate in 2015-2019 , released to inform the
United Nations Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit, says that the
global average temperature has increased by 1.1°C since the pre-industrial
period, and by 0.2°C compared to 2011-2015.

The climate statement – which covers until July 2019 - was released as part of a
high-level synthesis report from leading scientific institutions United in Science
under the umbrella of the Science Advisory Group of the UN Climate Summit
2019. The report provides a unified assessment of the state of Earth system
under the increasing influence of climate change, the response of humanity this
far and projected changes of global climate in the future. It highlights the
urgency and the potential of ambitious climate action in order to limit
potentially irreversible impacts.

An accompanying WMO report on greenhouse gas concentrations shows that

2015-2019 has seen a continued increase in carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels and
other key greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to new records, with CO2 growth
rates nearly 20% higher than the previous five years. CO 2 remains in the
atmosphere for centuries and in the ocean for even longer. Preliminary data
from a subset of greenhouse gas observational sites for 2019 indicate that CO2
global concentrations are on track to reach or even exceed 410 ppm by the end
of 2019.

“Climate change causes and impacts are increasing rather than slowing down,”
said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas, who is co-chair of the Science
Advisory Group of the UN Climate Summit.

“Sea level rise has accelerated and we are concerned that an abrupt decline in
the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which will exacerbate future rise. As we
have seen this year with tragic effect in the Bahamas and Mozambique, sea
level rise and intense tropical storms led to humanitarian and economic
catastrophes,” he said.

“The challenges are immense. Besides mitigation of climate change, there is a

growing need to adapt. According to the recent Global Adaptation Commission
report the most powerful way to adapt is to invest in early warning services, and
pay special attention to impact-based forecasts,” he said.

“It is highly important that we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, notably from
energy production, industry and transport. This is critical if we are to mitigate
climate change and meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement,” he said.

“To stop a global temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius above
pre-industrial levels, the level of ambition needs to be tripled. And to limit the
increase to 1.5 degrees, it needs to be multiplied by five,” he said.

Sea level rise:

Over the five-year period May 2014 -2019, the rate of global mean sea-level
rise has amounted to 5 mm per year, compared with 4 mm per year in the 2007-
2016 ten-year period. This is substantially faster than the average rate since
1993 of 3.2 mm/year. The contribution of land ice melt from the world glaciers
and the ice sheets has increased over time and now dominate the sea level
budget, rather than thermal expansion.

Shrinking Ice:

Throughout 2015-2018, the Arctic’s average September minimum (summer)

sea-ice extent was well below the 1981-2010 average, as was the average winter
sea-ice extent. The four lowest records for winter occurred during this period.
Multi-year ice has almost disappeared.

Antarctic February minimum (summer) and September maximum (winter) sea-

ice extent values have become well below the 1981-2010 average since 2016.
This is in contrast to the previous 2011-2015 period and the long term 1979-
2018 period. Antarctic summer sea ice reached its lowest and second lowest
extent on record in 2017 and 2018, respectively, with 2017 also being the
second lowest winter extent.
The amount of ice lost annually from the Antarctic ice sheet increased at least
six-fold, from 40 Gt per year in 1979-1990 to 252 Gt per year in 2009-2017.

The Greenland ice sheet has witnessed a considerable acceleration in ice loss
since the turn of the millennium.

For 2015-2018, the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) reference

glaciers indicates an average specific mass change of −908 mm water
equivalent per year, higher than in all other five-year periods since 1950.

Ocean heat and acidity:

More than 90 % of the excess heat caused by climate change is stored in the
oceans. 2018 had the largest ocean heat content values on record measured over
the upper 700 meters, with 2017 ranking second and 2015 third.

The ocean absorbs around 30% of the annual anthropogenic emissions of CO 2,

thereby helping to alleviate additional warming. The ecological costs to the
ocean, however, are high, as the absorbed CO 2 reacts with seawater and changes
the acidity of the ocean. There has been an overall increase in acidity of 26%
since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Extreme events:

More than 90 % of the natural disasters are related to weather. The dominant
disasters are storms and flooding, which have also led to highest economic
losses. Heatwaves and drought have led to human losses, intensification of
forest fires and loss of harvest.

Heatwaves, which were the deadliest meteorological hazard in the 2015-2019

period, affecting all continents and resulting in numerous new temperature
records. Almost every study of a significant heatwave since 2015 has found the
hallmark of climate change, according to the report.

The largest economic losses were associated with tropical cyclones. The 2017
Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most devastating on record with more
than US$ 125 billion in losses associated with Hurricane Harvey alone. On the
Indian Ocean, in March and April 2019, unprecedented and devastating back-to-
back tropical cyclones hit Mozambique.
Wildfires

Wildfires are strongly influenced by weather and climate phenomena. Drought

substantially increases the risk of wildfire in most forest regions, with a
particularly strong influence on long-lived fires. The three largest economic
losses on record from wildfires have all occurred in the last four years.

In many cases, fires have led to massive releases of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere. Summer 2019 saw unprecedented wildfires in the Arctic region. In
June alone, these fires emitted 50 megatons (Mt) of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere. This is more than was released by Arctic fires in the same month
from 2010 to 2018 put together. There were also massive forest fires in Canada
and Sweden in 2018. There were also widespread fires in the non-renewable
tropical rain forests in Southern Asia and Amazon, which have had impacts on
the global carbon budget.

Climate change and extreme events

According to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, over the

period 2015 to 2017, 62 of the 77 events reported show a significant
anthropogenic influence on the event’s occurrence, including almost every
study of a significant heatwave. An increasing number of studies are also
finding a human influence on the risk of extreme rainfall events.
 The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s
authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water. Website: public.wmo.int