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Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and

extreme values over upper Indus River basin

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DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.06.019

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 Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Atmospheric Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosres

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation variability in annual, seasonal and T

extreme values over upper Indus River basin
⁎
Ijaz Ahmada, , Fan Zhangb, Muhammad Tayyabc, Muhammad Naveed Anjumd,
Muhammad Zamane,f, Junguo Liug, Hafiz Umar Faridh, Qaisar Saddiquei
a
Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
b
Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
100101, China
c
College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
d
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chineese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
e
Research center of Fluid Machinery Engineering & Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
f
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
g
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen 518055, China
h
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan
i
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This paper investigates the annual and seasonal precipitation variability at 20 stations over upper Indus River
Trend analysis basin (UIRB) by using an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's slope estimator
ITA tests. Moreover, the annual precipitation time series is investigated for five precipitation intensities i.e. light,
Mann-Kendall low, moderate, high and heavy; and on a seasonal scale for extreme values i.e. light and heavy precipitation
Precipitation
intensities. Annual precipitation showed an increasing trend at four stations in the northeast region and a de-
Indus River basin
creasing trend at two stations in the southeast region of UIRB. On a seasonal scale, the results showed that
Garidopatta, Peshawar, Astore and Gupis stations are more sensitive to seasonal precipitation variabilities.
Changes in heavy precipitation (> 90th percentile) are found more severe in winter and summer seasons in the
northern regions suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. However, a reduction in flooding event observed
during the spring season in the southern regions of the UIRB indicating a shift in the precipitation regime from
south to north. The results of light precipitation (< 10th percentile) intensity showed that winter and spring
seasons are more vulnerable to the occurrence of prolonged drought events. Moreover, ITA method has the
advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the precipitation series because of its ability to present the results in
graphical format. The results of this study could help to understand seasonal and annual precipitation variability
over UIRB and will have imperative insinuations for further studies.

1. Introduction
An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and
climatic events have raised widespread concerns over global climatic
changes (Chen et al., 2017). Being one of the most important variables
in the hydrologic cycle, precipitation changes have a direct impact on
droughts, floods, water resources and ecosystem services (Wu et al.,
2013). Further, the intensity, frequency, and precipitation magnitude
are subject to variations associated with the climate change (Pal and Al-
Tabbaa, 2011). For the same magnitude of precipitation, the frequency
and intensity of precipitation may be different (Trenberth, 2011). The
pattern of the hydrological cycle may be altered by precipitation
changes, which can affect the environment and society (Gajbhiye et al.,
2016). Hence, it is essential to study the variations in the precipitation
characteristics in the context of climate change. Therefore, accurately
predicting the precipitation trends is a prerequisite in the water re-
sources planning to support the regional water resources planning and
food exchange possibilities for the sustainable economic development
of society (Ahmad et al., 2015). In the essence of climate change, a
warmer atmosphere increases the evaporation rate from land, resulting
in more moisture circulating throughout the troposphere. Hence, it is
expected to have more intense precipitation events, and longer and
severe droughts (Costa et al., 2012; Eslamian et al., 2011; Xu et al.,
2006; Zhang et al., 2010). Further, due to warming, more precipitation

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: ijaz.ahamd@cewre.edu.pk (I. Ahmad).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.06.019
Received 10 December 2017; Received in revised form 23 June 2018; Accepted 27 June 2018
Available online 28 June 2018
0169-8095/ © 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
I. Ahmad et al.
occurs as rain instead of snow, and earlier snowmelt can happen. These
changes may not only enhance the risk of flooding in spring, but also
increase risk of droughts during summer in the snow-fed basins
(Callaghan et al., 2011; Trenberth, 2011).
Many researchers have undertaken the studies to detect trends in
meteorological, hydrological, and climatological time series on annual,
seasonal and/or monthly scales by using parametric and nonparametric
tests (Chen et al., 2017; Djaman et al., 2017; Gao et al., 2016; Gocic and
Trajkovic, 2013; Sharma et al., 2016; Taxak et al., 2014; Wang et al.,
2017). Variations of temperature and precipitation extremes were in-
vestigated under the rapid warming over China at 532 observing sta-
tions since the 1990s and a decrease in cold extremes was found in
north China and northeast China whereas, warm extremes increased
profoundly in South China, Southwest China and Northwest China (Xu
et al., 2011). Zang and Liu (2013) used Mann-Kendall (MK) test to
detect the variation of precipitation as well as runoff and evapo-
transpiration in the Heihe River Basin in the arid and semi-arid
northwestern China. Hartmann and Andresky (2013) used the Mann-
Kendall (MK) test to detect the significant precipitation variations time
in the upper Indus River basin, and have found a stronger evidence of
increasing trends in monsoonal precipitation compared to annual pre-
cipitation time series. Talaee et al. (2014) investigated the trends of
reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation time series in wes-
tern Iran by using sequential MK, Kendall and Spearman tests, and no-
significant trends were found in the evapotranspiration time series;
however, increasing trend was observed in the evaporation. Pingale
et al. (2014) used MK and Sen's slope estimator tests to detect the trend
in the mean and extreme annual daily rainfall and temperature at 33
urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India; and
found inconsistent positive and negative trends in mean and extreme
annual daily precipitation and temperature time series at different
stations. Chowdhury et al. (2015) analyzed the precipitation variability
over Southern Australia by using the MK test, Spearman's rho test and
linear regression and found an overall increasing trend in the spring and
summer precipitation, but decreasing trends in the autumn and winter
precipitation, from the time series data. Chatterjee et al. (2016) applied
the MK and sequential MK tests to investigate spatiotemporal mono-
tonic trend and shift in concentration of monsoon precipitation across
West Bengal, India, by analyzing the time series of monthly precipita-
tion from 18 weather stations during the period from 1901 to 2002 and
have found a shift in precipitation concentration from mid-July to end
July during the study period. Gao et al. (2017) examined the spatio-
temporal variations of extreme precipitation over monsoon regions of
China by using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined
nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models and have
found significant increasing trends coupled with a significant decline of
dry spells.
However, for efficient and effective management of water resources,
trend analysis at low, median and high values of hydro-meteorological
time series data are also vital along with the monotonic trends over
time detected by traditional trend analysis tests such as Mann-Kendall,
Spearman's rho test, Sen's slope estimator, linear regression, etc. (Sen,
2012). For this purpose, an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method,
recently introduced by Sen (Sen, 2012; Şen, 2014) has been successfully
applied in water resources (Haktanir and Citakoglu, 2014; Kisi, 2015;
Markus et al., 2014; Onyutha, 2016; Wu and Qian, 2017). For valida-
tion of ITA results, MK test has often been employed because of its
insensitivity to outliers and normal distribution of time series data.
Trend analysis of total monthly precipitation was investigated in six
different provinces of Turkey by using ITA method and found sig-
nificant increasing trends at Samsun and Trabzon provinces, and in-
significant trend in other four provinces (Ay and Kisi, 2015). Air tem-
perature and heat wave trends between 1960 and 2010 were analyzed
in Northwestern Mexico by using linear data adjustment, Spearman's
rho test and ITA method, and found clear trends on temperature in-
crease and occurrence of heat waves (Martínez-Austria et al., 2016).
347
Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360
Monthly precipitation trends were examined for 25 stations by using
ITA method and found a decreasing trend in the north and an increasing
trend in southern parts of Macta watershed in Algeria between 1970
and 2011 (Elouissi et al., 2016). The trends of maximum hydrologic
drought variables for 9 stations in Coruh River basin in Turkey were
investigated, and MK test detected no-trend; however, modified MK test
and ITA method showed positive and negative trends at several sta-
tions, and the trend results were consistent with each other (Tosunoglu
and Kisi, 2017). Therefore, ITA method has a universal applicability in
comparison to MK and Spearman's rho tests, which has some restrictive
assumptions such as, serially independent data, the normality of dis-
tribution, seasonal cycle and length of time series. Moreover, by using
ITA method significant subseries trends (sub-trends) can be observed
from the graphical representations.
Variations in river discharges and water availability are mainly
dependent upon changes in precipitation and temperature (Akhtar
et al., 2008; Allen and Ingram, 2002; Vörösmarty et al., 2000). In Pa-
kistan, melting snow and glaciers along with the precipitation and
temperature variability in the upper Indus River basin (UIRB) could
have diversified impacts on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of
the country (Muhammad Qasim, 2013). The water resources supplied
by UIRB for the World's largest contiguous irrigation system through a
network of dams and reservoirs are essential for the socio-economic
development of millions of residents of the country (Immerzeel and
Bierkens, 2012). The water demands of different water use sectors such
as agriculture, industry, domestic and hydropower are kept increasing
over the years due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and eco-
nomic development (Jain et al., 2007; Khattak et al., 2011; Mirza et al.,
2008). Also, at the same time, the lower Indus basin is mostly arid and
hyper-arid, and largely dependent on water supplies from the UIRB
(Hasson et al., 2014a). The increased water demands of downstream of
the Indus basin compared to the supply of surface water from UIRB
caused over-exploitation of groundwater resources for irrigation. As a
result, the groundwater resources are depleted by an estimated 31 km3
annually (Cheema et al., 2014). Therefore, the Indus basin aquifer is
considered as the most stressed aquifer in the World (Gleeson et al.,
2012; Richey et al., 2015). The contrasting hydro-meteo-cryospheric
regimes due to complex terrain of the Hindukush–Karakor-
am–Himalaya ranges and sophisticated interaction of prevailing re-
gional circulations (Hasson et al., 2015) combined with uncertainty in
the future mountain water resources, makes the Indus basin a climate
change hotspot (De Souza et al., 2015). Extreme climatic events in the
form of hot extremes, heat waves and precipitation may become more
intense and frequent in the region in the future (Lutz et al., 2016a),
posing serious risks for a country which is already facing severe floods
(Houze et al., 2011), droughts and other natural disasters.
UIRB is a unique region complex climate (Lutz et al., 2016a), dis-
tinct physio-geographical features and contrasting hydrological regimes
(Hasson et al., 2015). In recent past, several studies have been con-
ducted to analyze the trends in temperature and precipitation time
series in the UIRB. Precipitation trends were analyzed by using linear
regression between 1961 and 1999 and a significant increasing trend
was detected in summer, winter and annual precipitation (Archer and
Fowler, 2004). Quincey et al. (2009) also detected an increasing trend
between 1970 and 1990 in annual precipitation but a decreasing trend
during the 1990s. However, these findings were not confirmed by the
results obtained by using several gridded precipitation products
(Palazzi et al., 2013). In another study, trend analysis on temperature
and precipitation for 20 meteorological stations in UIRB, and found
warming winter and cooling summer season between 1967 and 2005,
however, the precipitation trend was inconsistent (Khattak et al.,
2011). Changes in climatic variables were also assessed for the whole of
Pakistan and found a significant cooling trend during monsoon period
(Jul-Sep) and consistent warming is pre-monsoon season (Apr-May) in
temperature time series (Sheikh et al., 2009). However, in most of the
previous studies, a more restricted upper part of the UIRB was
I. Ahmad et al.
considered. Also, to the best of authors' knowledge, no study has been
conducted for the UIRB considering the extreme precipitation values by
using ITA methodology to study the low, median and high values
variability.
Therefore, the present study covers the entire UIRB lying in Pakistan
for the detection of seasonal and annual precipitation trends by using
an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method and evaluating the reliability
of ITA by comparing its results with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's
slope method. Moreover, the trends in the extreme precipitation values
were also detected to analyze its impact on drought and flood events
which have frequently been observed in the country over the years. We
divided the precipitation intensities into five categories based on the
percentiles (Brunetti et al., 2004; García-Herrera et al., 2003;
Gershunov and Gershunov, 1998) i.e. light (< 10th percentile), low
(10th–40th percentile), moderate (40th–60th percentile), high
(60th–90th percentile), and heavy (> 90th percentile) precipitation.
2. Study area and data
The Indus River basin is one of the world's largest transboundary
river basin with a total drainage area of about 1.08 × 106 km2, shared
by Pakistan (56%), India (26.6%), China (10.7%) and Afghanistan
(6.7%) (Wolf et al., 1999), which makes it a geopolitically intricated
region. The Indus River originates from Mansarovar Lake in the Tibetan
Plateau and flows through Jammu, Kashmir, and Pakistan before
draining into the Arabian Sea. The upper Indus River basin (UIRB) is
located within the terrestrial range of 32.48° and 37.07°N and 67.33°
and 81.83°E, in the mountainous ranges of Hindu-Kush, Karakoram,
Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau (Khattak et al., 2011; Lutz et al., 2016b).
These ranges jointly host 11,000 glaciers (Hasson et al., 2015), which
make it one of the world's most glaciated areas, with roughly
22,000 km2 of glacier surface area (Bajracharya and Shrestha, 2011).
The altitude in the UIRB varies from 200 m to 8500 m.a.s.l with an
average elevation of 3750 m a.s.l. and covering a catchment area of
289,000 km2. The research area is considered as the prime source of
fresh water for Pakistan and plays a vibrant role in the sustainable
economic development of the country.
The precipitation data of the Indus basin is distributed among dif-
ferent organizations; such as Pakistan Meteorological Department
(PMD), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), EvK2CNR
(an Italian based organization), etc. > 100 precipitation gauges are
being operated in the UIRB (Dahri et al., 2016). However, the pre-
cipitation data from only 20 stations are carefully chosen based on the
homogeneity, extent, and completeness of records to ensure the data
quality. The length of selected precipitation time series data ranges
from 41 to 54 years. The information regarding the meteorological
stations (e.g., name, elevation, record period, and mean precipitation)
is given in Table 1, and their locations are presented in Fig. 1. The daily
and monthly precipitation data were collected from PMD and WAPDA.
3. Methodology
The main idea of trend analysis is to identify whether the observed
values of a hydro-meteorological time series are increasing, decreasing
or trendless. Different parametric and nonparametric methods were
used by several researchers to detect the trends in hydro-meteorological
time series data. The parametric methods are considered more powerful
over nonparametric methods but have many restrictive measures such
as, data should be normally distributed and serially independent, which
is rarely true in case of hydro-meteorological time series data. Hence,
nonparametric methods have often been applied in detecting the trends
in hydro-meteorological time series because it does not require nor-
mally distributed data restriction; however, the data must be free of
serial correlation. For the removal of serial correlation, Von Storch
(1999) proposed a pre-whitening technique procedure before the ap-
plication of MK test for the detection of a trend in a hydro-
348
Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360
meteorological time series. However, Douglas et al. (2000) and Yue
et al. (2002) argued that the application of the pre-whitening technique
to the time series data may compromise the originality of time series
and removes a portion of a trend. Therefore, Sen (2012) proposed an
innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, which is free from these re-
strictive measures and has a universal applicability.
In this study, ITA method was used to detect the trends in the
precipitation time series. The results of ITA method were compared
with two well-known non-parametric tests, i.e., Mann-Kendall and Sen's
slope tests to evaluate the reliability of ITA method. Moreover, annual
and seasonal precipitation time series was examined using the ITA
method for intensity-based precipitation categories. The four seasons
were demarcated as winter (Dec-Feb), spring or pre-monsoon (Mar-
May), summer or monsoon (Jun-Sep), and autumn or post monsoon
(Oct-Nov). The monthly precipitation values were added to generate
the seasonal and annual precipitation time series (Ahmad et al., 2015;
Duhan and Pandey, 2013). The trends in the precipitation time series
were assessed at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels by using the ITA,
MK and Sen's slope methods. A significance level of 10% was con-
sidered as a threshold to indicate a significant trend.
3.1. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend detection test
The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test (Kendall, 1975; Mann,
1945) is most commonly used for identifying trends in hydro-meteor-
ological time series data, because of its insensitivity to outliers and
normal distribution of time series data (Hamed, 2008). The MK test
statistic (S) is given by:
n−1 n
S= ∑ ∑ sgn(Xj − Xk )
k=1 j=k+1 (1)
⎧ if (Xj − Xk ) < 0; then − 1⎫
⎪ ⎪
sgn(Xj − Xk ) = if (Xj − Xk ) = 0; then 0
⎨ ⎬
⎪if (Xj − Xk ) > 0; then 1 ⎪ (2)
⎩ ⎭
where n denotes the length of a dataset, Xj and Xk are the sequential
data values at times j and k, sgn denotes the sign function that takes on
the values 1, 0, or − 1; if Xj > Xk, Xj = Xk or Xj < Xk, respectively.
Positive S values indicate an increasing (upward) trend, and negative
values of S reveal a decreasing (downward) trend in the time series
data. For samples, n > 10, the test is conducted using normal dis-
tribution (σ2 = 1) and mean (μ = 0) (Helsel and Hirsch, 1992), with
expectation (E) and variance (Var) as follows:
E [S ] = 0 (3)
p
n (n − 1)(2n + 5) − ∑k = 1 tk (tk − 1)(2tk + 5)
Var (S ) =
18 (4)
where p is the tied group, tk is the number of observations in the kth
group, the sign (∑) represents the summation of all the tied groups.
However, if there are no-tied groups in the data, this summary course
may be disregarded. After calculating the variance Var(S) from Eq. (4),
the standardized test statistic (Zmk) value is calculated by using the
following equation.
S−1
⎧ , if S > 0
VAR (S )
⎪
Zmk = 0, if S = 0
⎨ S+1
⎪ , if S < 0
⎩ VAR (S ) (5)
The calculated standardized Zmk values follow a normal distribution
with variance “1” and average “0”, and it is used a measure of sig-
nificance of trend. In fact, this test statistic is used to test the null hy-
pothesis, H0. If Zmk is greater than Zα/2. This value of Zmk is compared
with standard normal distribution table of two-tailed test at confidence
levels of α = 1%, α = 5% and α = 10%. In a two-tailed test, the null
I. Ahmad et al. Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Table 1
Summary of basic geographic characteristics, data ranges and mean annual precipitation for the stations used in this study.
Sr. No. Station Latitude (dd) Longitude (dd) Elevation (m) Data Period Precipitation (mm)

1 Mangla 33.1 73.6 282 1961–2014 850

2 Gujjar Khan 33.3 73.3 457 1961–2014 817
3 Kotli 33.5 73.9 610 1961–2014 1233
4 Palandri 33.7 73.7 1402 1961–2014 1426
5 Murree 33.9 73.4 2206 1961–2014 1750
6 Garidopatta 34.2 73.6 813.5 1961–2014 1488
7 Kakul 34.1 73.2 1308 1961–2014 1304
8 Balakot 34.6 73.4 995.5 1961–2014 1567
9 Muzaffarabad 34.4 73.5 702 1961–2014 1486
10 Cherat 33.5 71.3 1372 1961–2014 608
11 Peshawar 34.0 71.5 320 1961–2014 450
12 Parachinar 33.5 71.1 1725 1961–2014 846
13 Saidusharif 34.4 72.2 961 1974–2014 1057
14 Skardu 35.2 75.4 2317 1961–2014 224
15 Astore 35.2 74.5 2168 1961–2014 481
16 Gilgit 35.6 74.2 1460 1961–2014 136
17 Gupis 36.2 73.4 2156 1961–2014 193
18 Dir 35.2 71.9 1375 1966–2014 1378
19 Drosh 35.4 71.7 1463.9 1961–2014 592
20 Chitral 35.9 71.8 1497.8 1963–2014 472

hypothesis (H0) is accepted for no-trend if the calculated value of Zmk
between – Z1-α/2 and Z1-α/2, and therefore, H1 is rejected. In the present
study, the trends in the precipitation time series data are calculated at
significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%.
3.2. Innovative trend analysis (ITA) method
The innovative trend analysis (ITA) method has been used in several
studies around the world to detect the trends in the hydrological, me-
teorological and climatological time series data, and the reliability of
ITA was confirmed by comparing its results with Mann-Kendall (MK)
test results. In this method, the first step is to divide the hydro-me-
teorological time series data into two equal halves and arrange each
sub-series in ascending order independently. For instance, if there are
52 observations in the time-series then the first 26 observations will be
the first half and the next 26observations will become the second half of
the time series. In the second step, the first half (Xi: i = 1, 2… n/2) of
the sub-series is placed on the X-axis and the second half (Xj: j = n/
2 + 1, n/2 + 2… n) is placed on the Y-axis of a Cartesian coordinate
system as shown in Fig. 2. The range of both axes (horizontal and

Fig. 1. Location of the selected meteorological stations.

349
I. Ahmad et al.
Fig. 2. Illustration of increasing, decreasing and trendless regions in the ITA
method.
vertical axis) must be same. The domain of variation of each sub-series
may be characterized by a series of clusters (subgroups). This kind of
plots offers first visual check of the nature of trends in time series. The
range of each subgroup may be determined either qualitatively or
quantitatively. If the data points in a scatter plot are collected on the 1:1
(45o) straight line, it means that there is no-trend in the hydro-me-
teorological time series (trendless time series). Otherwise, if the data
points accumulate in the triangular area above or below the 1:1 straight
line, it means that the time series exhibits an increasing or a decreasing
trend, respectively (Sen, 2012).
The magnitude of an increasing or a decreasing trend in the time
series can be determined by calculating the average difference between
the Xi and Xj values at each point. This absolute difference may be taken
as the horizontal or vertical distance from the 1:1 straight line.
However, these average differences should be normalized in comparing
the magnitude of a trend of two subseries. The change in the trend is
determined based on the first half of the time series. Therefore, the
trend indicator is calculated by dividing the average difference from the
1:1 straight line to the average of the first half of the time series. The
ITA trend indicator is multiplied by 10 to represent the same scale as
that of the MK test and Sen's slope estimator test at 10% significance
level and is presented in the following equation.
n
1 10(Xj − Xi )
B=
n
∑ μ
i=1
where B represents the trend indicator, n denotes the length of each
subseries, Xi and Xj are the observed data values in the first and second
subseries, respectively, and μ denotes the mean of the first subseries, a
positive or negative value of B shows an increasing or decreasing trend,
respectively. If the observed data values in the original time series are
odd, then the first observation may be ignored before dividing it into
two halves to make full use of latest records.
3.3. Sen's slope estimator test
Sen's non-parametric method (Sen, 1968) was used to estimate the
magnitude of trends in the time series data. The slope of “n” pairs of
Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360
data can be first estimated by using the following equation:
Xj − Xk ⎤
βi = median ⎡ ∀ (k < j )
⎢
⎣ j−k ⎥ ⎦ (7)
In this equation, Xj and Xk denote data values at time j and k, re-
spectively, and time j is after time k (k ≤ j). The median of “n” values of
βi is the Sen's slope estimator test. A positive βi value represents an
increasing trend; a negative βi value represents a decreasing trend over
time. If “n” is an odd number, then the estimated slope by using the
Sen's method can be computed as follows:
βmed = β[(n + 1)/2] (8)
If “n” is an even number, then the slope Sen's estimator is computed
by using the following equation:
1
βmed = (β + β[(n + 2)/2] )
2 [n /2] (9)
Lastly, βmed is tested by a two-tailed test at 100(1 − α)% confidence
level, and the true slope of monotonic trend can be estimated by using a
nonparametric test (Partal and Kahya, 2006).
4. Results
4.1. Spatial and temporal precipitation distribution
The spatiotemporal variations in the annual precipitation time
series at 20 stations in the UIRB are presented in Figs. 3 and 4. The
variations in the annual precipitation are inconsistent at different me-
teorological stations (Hasson et al., 2015; Khattak et al., 2011) as
shown in Fig. 3(a). The UIRB is influenced by different climatic regimes
such as monsoonal affects, westerly disturbances and orographic var-
iations of the Tibetan Plateau, and therefore, making it a complex re-
gion and result these inconsistencies at different stations (Anjum et al.,
2018). However, these precipitation variations are consistent in the
form of clusters at various stations located in the different regions of the
UIRB. For instance, the precipitation in the southeast cluster, i.e., from
Mangla to Muzaffarabad stations increases from south to north. An
abrupt decrease in the precipitation was observed from southeast to
southwest (Muzaffarabad to Cherat stations) as shown in Fig. 3(a). The
precipitation stations (Skardu to Gupis) between Himalaya and Kar-
akoram ranges (northeast cluster) of the UIRB received the lowest
precipitation among all the other clusters. It is also clear that the pre-
cipitation increases substantially from the southwest region (Cherat to
Saidusharif) towards the northwest, but with an abrupt change, it de-
creases from Dir station to Chitral station in the Hindukush mountain
ranges. Almost at all stations, outliers can be seen from Fig. 3(a) on both
upper and lower sides. Outliers appear frequently at the stations
(Cherat, Peshawar, and Parachinar) located in the southwest region of
UIRB; but however, these outliers are minor.
The mean monthly precipitation over the UIRB is presented in
Fig. 3(b). The mean monthly precipitation observed at 20 different
(6) stations were averaged to represent an overall temporal distribution of
precipitation over UIRB (Duhan and Pandey, 2013; Wen et al., 2017).
Fig. 3(b) showed that the precipitation is concentrated in July and
August because of the monsoon season and contributing > 30% of the
total annual precipitation. Another cluster of peak monthly precipita-
tion was observed in February to April in the spring season as shown in
Fig. 3(b).
4.2. Seasonal trend analysis
The seasonal precipitation trends over the UIRB are examined using
three methods, i.e., Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator test
(β) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, and their results are
presented in Table 2. Significant increasing trends (α = 0.05) are
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I. Ahmad et al.
Fig. 3. Boxplot of annual precipitation at different stations in the upper Indus River basin and distribution of mean monthly precipitation over entire UIRB.
detected in the winter precipitation at Skardu and Gupis stations, which
are located in the northeast region between the Himalaya and Kar-
akoram mountain ranges. Spring precipitation exhibits significant de-
creasing (α = 0.01, α = 0.05, α = 0.1) trends at nine stations (Table 2)
scattered over the UIRB. The other stations (except Skardu and Gilgit)
also show negative (decreasing) trends in the spring precipitation, but
these trends are insignificant. Significant (α = 0.01, α = 0.05) trends
detected at 7 stations in the summer precipitation. Of these, two sta-
tions (Palandri and Garidopatta) located in the southeast region exhibit
decreasing trends. The stations (Skardu, Astore, Gilgit, and Gupis), lo-
cated in the northeast region exhibit increasing trends in summer pre-
cipitation. The autumn precipitation exhibits a significant (α = 0.05)
increasing trend only at Peshawar station. In terms of stations, Gar-
idopatta, Peshawar, Skardu and Gupis are found more sensitive to
precipitation variations, in which each station exhibits significant
(α = 0.01, α = 0.05) trends in two seasons. Garidopatta and Peshawar
stations show significant (α = 0.05) decreasing (spring and summer)
Fig. 4. Spatial pattern of average annual precipitation (mm/year) over UIRB.
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Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360
and increasing (summer and autumn) trends, respectively. Significant
(α = 0.01, α = 0.05) increasing trends detected at Gupis in winter and
summer seasons; whereas Astore station exhibits significant (α = 0.05)
decreasing trend in spring and increasing trend in the summer season.
The graphical results of only summer precipitation trends are pre-
sented in Fig. 5, and due to limited space, ITA figures for winter, spring
and autumn seasons are not shown in the paper; however, an overall
representation of trend results in the light and heavy rainfall categories
is given in Figs. 6 and 7 respectively. The precipitation intensities were
divided into five categories based on the percentiles i.e. light (< 10th
percentile), low (10th – 40th percentile), moderate (40th – 60th per-
centile), high (60th – 90th percentile), and heavy (> 90th percentile)
precipitation. The variations in light and heavy precipitation categories
were estimated using Eq. (6) of ITA method, as the droughts and floods
are more sensitive to the variations in the light and heavy precipitation
categories (Lei and Duan, 2011; Qian et al., 2010; Yan and Yang, 2000).
The trend results in light precipitation for winter, spring, summer, and
I. Ahmad et al. Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Table 2
Results of the MK test statistic Z, Sen's slope estimator β, and ITA method statistic B for the seasonal precipitation time series.
Sr. No. Station Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Zmk β B Zmk β B Zmk β B Zmk β B

1 Mangla −0.18 −0.09 −0.30 −0.87 −0.37 −2.50 0.36 0.36 0.26 0.08 0.01 −0.77
2 Gujar Khan 0.00 0.00 0.23 −0.04 −0.05 −1.01 −0.82 −0.82 0.06 −0.84 −0.12 −0.99
3 Kotli 0.38 0.39 0.38 −0.91 −0.65 −1.00 −0.52 −0.52 −0.22 −1.28 −0.45 −2.13
4 Palandri −0.28 −0.23 −0.21 −0.73 −0.98 −2.25 −2.01⁎⁎ −2.01⁎⁎ −1.70 −0.54 −0.15 −1.65
5 Murree 0.31 0.50 0.64 −2.25⁎⁎ −2.55⁎⁎ −1.29 −0.25 −0.25 0.13 −0.54 −0.31 −1.70
6 Garidopatta 0.22 0.34 1.42 −2.98⁎⁎ −4.01⁎⁎ −2.02 −2.13⁎⁎ −2.13⁎⁎ −1.30 −1.54 −0.81 −2.53
7 Kakul 0.87 0.71 1.45 0.03 0.11 0.44 0.80 0.80 0.49 −0.26 −0.14 0.27
8 Balakot 0.19 0.18 −0.22 −2.51⁎⁎ −2.78⁎⁎ −1.81 0.89 0.89 0.29 −0.44 −0.17 −2.04
9 Muzaffarabad 1.12 1.13 1.84 −1.03 −1.06 −0.81 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.01 0.01 −1.07
10 Cherat −0.77 −0.38 0.34 −2.16⁎⁎ −1.77⁎⁎ −2.52 0.40 0.40 −0.19 −0.37 −0.06 −1.99
11 Peshawar 1.25 0.63 2.45 −0.42 −0.24 0.25 2.46⁎⁎ 2.46⁎⁎ 1.39 2.57⁎⁎ 0.49⁎⁎ 3.35
12 Parachinar −0.25 −0.17 0.68 −2.03⁎⁎ −2.23⁎⁎ −1.34 −0.66 −0.66 −0.14 0.28 0.07 0.04
13 Saidusharif 1.54 1.40 2.41 −0.12 −0.27 0.16 0.88 1.32 1.55 1.08 0.45 0.48
14 Skardu 2.69⁎⁎ 0.91⁎⁎ 3.33 0.76 0.37 1.15 2.13⁎⁎ 0.40⁎⁎ 2.27 −0.67 −0.02 −2.10
15 Astore 0.58 0.27 1.54 −2.03⁎⁎ −1.43⁎⁎ −1.27 2.10⁎⁎ 2.10⁎⁎ 3.26 −0.71 −0.13 −2.81
16 Gilgit 0.54 0.05 1.56 0.21 0.06 −0.35 2.11⁎⁎ 2.11⁎⁎ 3.93 0.43 0.02 −1.58
17 Gupis 2.11⁎⁎ 0.48⁎⁎ 3.24 - 0.44 −0.23 0.41 3.96⁎⁎⁎ 3.96⁎⁎⁎ 5.64 0.64 0.02 1.83
18 Dir −0.95 −2.28 −0.80 −2.90⁎⁎ −5.54⁎⁎ −2.54 1.58 1.58 0.74 0.25 0.14 0.04
19 Drosh 0.78 0.48 1.13 −2.22⁎⁎ −2.30⁎⁎ −1.26 −0.06 −0.06 0.33 0.00 0.00 1.50
20 Chitral 0.56 0.29 2.42 −1.84⁎ −1.62⁎ −0.82 1.12 1.12 2.81 0.60 0.13 1.75

⁎
Trends at the 10% significance level.
⁎⁎
Trends at the 5% significance level.
⁎⁎⁎
Trends at the 1% significance level.

autumn seasons are presented in Fig. 6. The light precipitation exhibits
an increasing trend of about or > 10% magnitude in the summer season
at ten stations, scattered over the UIRB; whereas, decreasing trends are
observed at ten stations in the winter season followed by spring season
(at nine seasons). These results suggest a possible droughts reduction in
the summer season and exacerbation in the winter and spring seasons.
Therefore, it may be advised to pay more attention to the winter and
spring droughts in the UIRB. Moreover, the stations located in the
southern region of UIRB receives more average annual rainfall com-
pared to the northern region (Fig. 4); however, the results showed de-
creasing trends in the light precipitation category in the winter and
spring seasons as shown in Fig. 6, indicating a potential shift in the
precipitation regime from south to north during these seasons.
It is clear from Fig. 5, that heavy precipitation category shows im-
portant variations at various stations, implying a strong variability in
flooding events of > 10%. The heavy precipitation category exhibits a
decrease of > 10% in the summer precipitation at two stations (Pa-
landri and Garidopatta) located in the southeast region of UIRB.
Whereas an increasing trend of > 10% is detected in the heavy pre-
cipitation category at eight stations (accounting for 40%) scattered over
the study area, i.e., Parachinar, Skardu, Astore, Gilgit, Gupis, Dir, Drosh
and Chitral stations. Moreover, winter precipitation exhibits increasing
trends of about or > 10% at thirteen stations followed by summer and
autumn seasons as shown in Fig. 7. Spring precipitation does not show
an increasing trend at any station. On the contrary, spring precipitation
exhibits decreasing trends of about or > 10% at ten stations followed
by autumn (at seven stations) and summer (at two stations) seasons;
whereas, winter precipitation shows weak or indiscernible trends in the
heavy precipitation category. The stations showing an increase in the
heavy precipitation category are mostly located in the northeast and
northwest regions which receives less amount of average annual rainfall
compared to the stations located in the southern region (Fig. 4). A clear
shift in the heavy precipitation category from south to north of the
UIRB is evident from Figs. 4 and 7 in the winter and summer seasons.
Hence, there is a possibility of increased flood events in the northern
river basins of UIRB.
4.3. Annual precipitation trend analysis
Similar to seasonal precipitation trend analysis, annual precipitation
time series analyzed for the detection of trends by using three methods,
and their results are presented in Table 3. It is clear from Table 3 that
most of the stations exhibit decreasing precipitation trends; however,
these are insignificant. Statistically significant (α = 0.01, α = 0.05,
α = 0.1) trends are detected at six stations scattered over the UIRB. Of
these, three stations i.e. Skardu, Gilgit and Gupis in the northeast region
(between Himalaya and Karakoram), and one station i.e. Peshawar in
the southwest region exhibit significant (α = 0.05, α = 0.1) increasing
trends; whereas, other two stations Palandri and Garidopatta in the
southeast region show significant (α = 0.01, α = 0.05) decreasing
trends. The increasing rate of the significant trend at Peshawar station
(a low altitude station) is as high as 2.94 mm/year followed by
1.87 mm/year, 1.23 mm/year and 0.62 mm/year at Skardu, Gupis and
Gilgit (high altitude stations) in the northeast region of the UIRB. The
decreasing rates of significant trends are −8.55 mm/year
and − 7.58 mm/year at Garidopatta and Palandri stations, respectively.
The annual precipitation trends are also examined for five cate-
gories of precipitation, i.e., light, low, moderate, high and heavy in-
tensity by using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, and their
results are presented in Table 3. The daily precipitation data was used
to investigate extreme value events, as the daily data based analysis are
more reliable for evaluating the floods and drought analysis (Mishra
and Liu, 2014). The results indicate that the value of statistic B varies
across the different precipitation categories not only in magnitude but
also trend direction (upward or downward trends). Almost half of the
stations show a gradual decrease in the statistic B; whereas, the other
stations depict an increase from light to heavy precipitation. Therefore,
it may be concluded that a gradual rise or decrease in the statistic B
values predict the magnitude of a stronger or weaker trend.
The results of the annual precipitation trend analysis using the ITA
method are presented in Fig. 8. The trends are inconsistent (both in-
creasing and decreasing trends) across different stations. At most of the
stations, the precipitation data points fall within the 10% range from
the 1:1 line; but generally, insignificant at 10% confidence level.
However, the trend attributes are rather distinctive at each station
across all five selected precipitation categories. The stations Mangla,

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I. Ahmad et al. Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Fig. 5. Results of summer precipitation trends at 20 stations in UIRB by using Sen's ITA method.

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I. Ahmad et al. Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Fig. 6. Seasonal trends in light precipitation over UIRB using ITA method.

Gujjar Khan, Kotli, Murree, Kakul, and Cherat show a combination of
increasing and decreasing trends for all precipitation categories; how-
ever, the change in trends is mostly < 10%. At the Palandri station,
most of the points fall below the −10% line, which is evident of de-
creasing trends in all selected precipitation categories, and the down-
ward trend becomes stronger when the precipitation value is > 2000
mm/year. At the Garidopatta station; the light precipitation increases
at about 10%, the trend decreases > 10% for low and moderate rainfall,
and trend decreases abruptly for the precipitation value of > 1800 mm/
year. In the heavy precipitation category, Kakul, Peshawar, Skardu,
Astore, Gilgit and Gupis stations show an increasing trend of > 10%;
whereas, a decreasing trend of > 10% is observed at Saidusharif and
Drosh stations as shown in Fig. 9. In case of light precipitation category,
an increase of > 10% at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit, Drosh and Chitral sta-
tions; and a decrease of > 10% at Peshawar, Parachinar and Dir sta-
tions is observed. Similar to seasonal trends in the light and heavy
precipitation, annual precipitation category also showing a clear shift in
the precipitation regime from south to north of UIRB as shown in Figs. 4
and 9.
4.4. Comparison of trend results
The reliability of the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method is
analyzed by comparing its results with Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's

Fig. 7. Seasonal trends in heavy precipitation over UIRB using ITA method.

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I. Ahmad et al. Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Table 3
Results of the MK test statistic Z, Sen's slope estimator β and ITA statistic B for the annual precipitation time series and statistic B for extreme precipitation values.
Sr. No Station Zmk β B

Annual Light Low Moderate High Heavy

1 Mangla −0.14 −0.26 −0.30 −0.89 0.32 −0.46 −0.13 −1.43

2 Gujar Khan −0.94 −1.58 −0.13 0.93 0.52 −0.87 −0.79 0.75
3 Kotli −0.85 −2.01 −0.33 −0.77 −0.56 −0.09 −0.08 −0.79
4 Palandri −2.52⁎⁎ −7.58⁎⁎ −1.74 −1.98 −1.11 −1.88 −1.66 −2.75
5 Murree −1.11 −2.73 −0.19 −0.63 −0.73 −0.21 0.28 0.11
6 Garidopatta −3.57⁎⁎⁎ −8.55⁎⁎⁎ −1.03 0.38 −0.84 −0.86 −1.43 −2.10
7 Kakul 0.55 0.69 0.54 2.11 −0.11 0.12 0.24 0.77
8 Balakot −0.43 −0.86 −0.45 −0.37 −0.24 −0.72 −0.42 −0.60
9 Muzaffarabad 0.49 0.88 0.49 0.30 1.00 0.81 0.01 0.30
10 Cherat 0.03 0.10 −0.94 −2.47 0.59 0.40 −1.10 −2.26
11 Peshawar 2.48⁎⁎ 2.94⁎⁎ 1.93 −2.66 0.62 2.32 3.12 3.11
12 Parachinar −0.95 −2.12 −0.39 −2.06 0.03 −0.27 0.15 0.29
13 Saidusharif 1.30 2.58 1.24 1.40 1.35 1.21 1.41 0.42
14 Skardu 2.16⁎⁎ 1.87⁎⁎ 2.56 3.36 3.16 3.03 1.68 1.98
15 Astore −0.54 −0.59 0.20 −0.17 −0.09 −0.20 0.36 1.65
16 Gilgit 1.67⁎ 0.62⁎ 1.12 3.37 1.20 1.03 0.54 1.73
17 Gupis 2.00⁎⁎ 1.23 2.36 2.15 1.95 2.57 2.40 2.67
18 Dir −0.95 −2.28 −0.80 −2.95 −0.49 −0.55 −0.57 −1.34
19 Drosh −0.95 −1.13 −0.18 1.13 0.15 0.31 −0.60 −1.24
20 Chitral −0.04 −0.06 1.08 2.56 2.78 0.19 0.96 −0.60

⁎
Trends at the 10% significance level.
⁎⁎
Trends at the 5% significance level.
⁎⁎⁎
Trends at the 1% significance level.

slope estimator tests for the 80 seasonal and annual time series. At
seasonal time scale, nineteen (19) time series are showing significant
trends at different stations which are found consistent in sign by using
all three methods. To compare the ITA results for all the trends, i.e.,
significant and insignificant, scatter graphs were plotted between the
statistic B of ITA method and Zmk of MK test and between statistic B of
ITA and β of Sen's slope estimator. The results presented in Figs. 10(a)
and (b), indicate that most of the points (83%) fall within the 1st and
3rd quadrants, showing an overall agreement among the selected trend
detection methods and rest of the 17% points falls in 2nd and 4th
quadrants showing a variation in sign; however, these trends are in-
significant, and the magnitude of these variations is small. Fig. 10 also
indicated a strong agreement of statistic B of ITA with Zmk of MK test
and β of Sen's slope estimator. Hence, the consistency of results in all
three trend detection methods indicates that the ITA is a reliable and
effective method because of its ability to analyze the trends in the
hydro-meteorological at low, median and high values from the gra-
phical representations. Moreover, ITA method has a universal applic-
ability in comparison to Mann-Kendall test, which has some restrictive
assumptions such as, serially independent data, the normality of dis-
tribution, seasonal cycle and length of time series (Wu and Qian, 2017).
5. Discussions
This study investigates the precipitation variability in the seasonal
and annual time series, and extreme values over UIRB. The available
water resources from the UIRB for the downstream uses are dependent
upon the seasonal precipitation from the discrete mode of large scale
circulations, i.e., the summer monsoon system transporting moisture
from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and the westerly disturbances
bringing precipitation from the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas, to
their far boundaries over the UIRB. Thus, knowledge about the climatic
variability prevailing over the UIRB is necessary for better management
and use of available water resources in Pakistan (Hasson et al., 2015).
However, most of the previous studies considered a more restricted
upper part of UIRB for analyzing the precipitation variability, which
does not fully represent the active hydrological regime of the UIRB.
Moreover, no study has been conducted for the UIRB considering the
extreme precipitation values by using ITA methodology to study the
low, median and high values variability. Therefore, this study con-
sidered the entire UIRB lying in Pakistan to analyze the precipitation
variability in the seasonal and annual time-series by using an in-
novative trend analysis (ITA) method and evaluating the reliability of
ITA by comparing its results with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope
method. Moreover, the trends in the extreme precipitation values were
also detected to analyze its impact on drought and flood events which
have frequently been observed in the country over the years.
In the previous studies over the UIRB, Khattak et al. (2011) have
found inconsistent pattern of precipitation variability from the stations
located in the southern region of UIRB for the period 1967–2005. Si-
milarly, Bocchiola and Diolaiuti (2013) found mostly insignificant
variations in precipitation over UIRB. In this study, a coherent but in-
significant pattern of precipitation variability was found, which directs
an increasing tendency during winter, summer and autumn seasons and
on annual time scale, while a decreasing tendency during the spring
months at most of the low altitude stations (southern region of UIRB).
The results a long term increasing trend in precipitation at Astore sta-
tion for the spring and summer seasons is also consistent with Farhan
et al. (2015). It was observed that the stations located in the northern
parts of UIRB suggest a comparatively enhanced monsoonal influence
since four stations (Peshawar, Skardu, Astore, Gilgit and Gupis) within
the central and northern regions of UIRB showed a significant increase
in precipitation. This is in good agreement with the projected in-
tensification of south Asian summer monsoonal precipitation regime
under enhanced greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Hasson et al.,
2014b, 2013, 2016). At the high-altitude stations (located in the
northern region of UIRB), shifts of the long-term trends of increasing
summer precipitation to drying over the low altitude stations (located
in the southern region of UIRB) indicate a transition towards weaker
monsoonal influence at lower levels. This may relate to the fact that the
monsoonal currents crossing the western Himalayan barriers reach the
central and western UIB at higher levels. Hence, a clear shift in the
precipitation regime is evident from south to north in the UIRB which is
also consistent with the results of previous studies conducted in this
region (Garee et al., 2017; Lutz et al., 2016a; Rajbhandari et al., 2015;
Soncini et al., 2015). The precipitation increases during winter but
decrease during spring season is associated with certain changes in the
westerly precipitation regime under changing climate. For instance,

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I. Ahmad et al. Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360

Fig. 8. Results of annual precipitation trends at 20 stations in UIRB by using Sen's ITA method.

356
I. Ahmad et al.
Fig. 9. Seasonal trends in light and heavy precipitation over UIRB using ITA method.
Fig. 10. Scatter plots of (a) Zmk of MK test against B of ITA method and (b) β of Sen's slope estimator against B of ITA method.
spring drying is mainly consistent with the weakening and northward
shift of the mid-latitude storm track (Bengtsson et al., 2006). On the
other hand, observed increase in the winter precipitation is consistent
with the observations as well as future projections of more frequent
incursions of the westerly disturbances into the region (Cannon et al.,
2015; Madhura et al., 2015; Ridley et al., 2013), which together with
drying of spring season, indicate less intermittent westerly precipitation
regime in future, as reported by Hasson et al. (2016) based on CMIP5
climate models. Based on the more frequent incursions of the mon-
soonal system and westerly disturbances expected in the future and
certain changes projected for the overall seasonality/intermittency of
their precipitation regimes by the climate models Hasson et al. (2016),
one expects changes in the time of the melt water availability from the
UIRB. Such hypothesis can be tested by assessing changes in the sea-
sonality of precipitation and runoff based on observations analyzed
here and through modelling melt water runoff from the region under
prevailing climatic conditions.
Natural disasters, including droughts and floods, are posing serious
threats to the Pakistani society. The country is facing a major flood
event in every three years (De Groeve et al., 2007) drought like con-
ditions after six years interval (Jabeen et al., 2006). Pakistan has faced
the worst drought and flood events of its history in 2010 and
1998–2002, respectively because of the large precipitation variability
in the UIRB. Precipitation is considered as the primary source of water
for natural streams, agricultural lands, and groundwater recharge.
High-intensity precipitation events may cause floods, and deficit pre-
cipitation may lead to droughts. In Pakistan, mainly flooding happens
in summer season because of the concentrated precipitation in the
UIRB. However, droughts may occur in any season, predominantly in
summer as the water stored in different reservoirs during the summer
season is used during the dry periods and deficient precipitation in the
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Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360
summer season may affect the water conservation. An increasing pre-
cipitation trend may lead to flooding; whereas, a decreasing trend may
result in drought. However, the floods are more sensitive to variations
in heavy precipitation, and drought to light precipitation trends.
Therefore, the trends in the extreme precipitation values were also
detected to analyze its impact on drought and flood events which have
frequently been observed in the country over the years.
There is no study has been conducted on extreme value events at
UIRB, therefore, it is not possible to compare the results of present
study at UIRB with previous studies. However, many earlier studies
found that extreme precipitation events showed both increasing and
decreasing trends around the world (Alexander et al., 2006; Griffiths
et al., 2007; Madsen et al., 2014; Naidu et al., 2015; You et al., 2011). In
this study, an increase in the heavy precipitation category was found in
the winter and summer seasons, and a decrease in the spring season.
However, the precipitation variability is inconsistent in the autumn
season. Most of the stations exhibiting an increase in the heavy pre-
cipitation are in the northern region of UIRB, suggesting a possible
aggravation in the flooding during the winter and summer seasons and
necessitating the better flood management strategies in this region.
Winter and summer seasons showed a decrease in the light precipita-
tion, and summer trends are increasing. Again, light precipitation
variability in the autumn season is inconsistent with both significantly
increasing and decreasing trends at different stations. The results sug-
gest a possible drought reduction in summer season and exacerbation in
the winter and spring seasons. Hence, more attention need to be paid to
drought management in the winter and spring seasons.
6. Conclusions
This study analyzed the seasonal and annual precipitation
I. Ahmad et al.
variability over the upper Indus River basin (UIRB) by using an in-
novative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's
slope estimator tests. At seasonal time scale, nineteen (19) out of eighty
(80) precipitation time series, being investigated in this study, exhibited
significant trends at fourteen (14) stations in four seasons. Significant
increasing trends are detected at two stations in the winter precipita-
tion, and at one station in the autumn precipitation time series. Spring
precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trends at nine stations.
Summer precipitation showed significant trends at seven stations; of
which five stations exhibited an increasing trend and two of them de-
creasing trends. Garidopatta, Peshawar, Astore and Gupis stations are
found more sensitive to seasonal precipitation variations.
Moreover, to analyze the floods and droughts in the UIRB, the
trends for light and heavy precipitation categories were detected by
using the ITA method. Heavy precipitation showed increasing trends
of > 10% magnitude at thirteen stations in the winter season, and at
eight stations in summer season; whereas, ten stations exhibited de-
creasing trends of > 10% in the spring season and seven stations in the
autumn season. Most of the stations, which are showing significant
trends, are located in the northeast and northwest regions of the UIRB,
which suggests a probable aggravation of flooding in winter and
summer seasons in the north of UIRB. The stations showing decreasing
trends in spring are mostly located in the southeast region, showing a
reduction of flooding. The light precipitation exhibited an increasing
trend in the summer season at ten stations; whereas, a decreasing trend
in the winter season at ten stations followed by spring season at nine
stations. From this, it may be concluded that both winter and summer
seasons are more sensitive to extreme precipitation values. Therefore,
more attention should be given to cope with flooding and droughts
during these seasons.
On an annual scale, six out of twenty stations exhibit significant
trends; of these, four stations are show increasing trends and two sta-
tions a decreasing trend. The downward trends are concentrated in
southeast region; whereas, increasing trends are in southwest and
northeast regions of the UIRB. The decreasing rates of significant trends
are −7.58 mm/year and − 8.55 mm/year at two stations. The in-
creasing rates of trends vary from 0.62 mm/year to 2.94 mm/year. The
value of statistic B was calculated by using ITA method, and the results
indicate that for different precipitation categories, this varies not only
in magnitude but also in direction. A gradual decrease in the average B
values from light to heavy rainfall shows that an increase in the rainfall
intensity will result in a stronger trend.
The findings of this study provide an insight into future develop-
ment projects; for instance, it can present valuable information and a
priori view to support the engineers and practitioners to implement the
structures to be constructed to cope with the floods and droughts when
looking at prevailing climatic events.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing financial interest.
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding
agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful to Water and Power Development
Authority (WAPDA) and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
for providing the data to conduct this research work. Prof. Dr. Zhang
Fan participation was supported by the International Partnership
Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.
131C11KYSB20160061). Prof. Dr. Liu Junguo participation was sup-
ported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Youth Scholars
358
Atmospheric Research 213 (2018) 346–360
(41625001).
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