Prof. D.

Nagesh Kumar
Prof. Satish Dhawan Chair Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Science
Bangalore – 560012
URL: http://www.civil.iisc.ac.in/~nagesh
Acknowledgement:
Drs A Anandhi , V V Srinivas &
Prof Ravi S Nanjundiah

June 11, 2020 1

 Outline
◼ Introduction
◼ Climate Change
IPCC Scenarios
Downscaling for Hydrologic Investigations
Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables for a River Basin
◼ Remote Sensing (RS), GIS & DEM for Hydrology
RS for Land Use/ Land Cover
GIS for Watershed Delineation
DEM for Drainage Pattern Estimation using SRTM Data
◼ Streamflow Projections using SWAT
AV SWAT Model
Inputs for AV SWAT Model
Streamflow Projections
◼ Conclusions
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3
 Climate Change

June 11, 2020 3

30
Why do we need to understand climate?
Climate …
… has direct/indirect impact on hydrology
… creates nonstationarity in hydrologic time series
… has the power to change the socio-economic status of the country
… has the power to change ICE age to present day and may be from
present day to FIRE age!

What does a hydrologist need to do?

Should have the answer of the following …
… How does climate impact on hydrology?
(precipitation, rainfall-runoff process, water resources management)
… How to deal with the nonstationarity in hydrologic time series?
… How to be prepared for the changed scenario?
How to assess the climate impact on hydrology?
… Downscaling to river basin scale
… Hydrologic modeling and streamflow projections

June 11, 2020 4

 Climate Change Scenario
Climate Change scenario refers to a plausible future climate that has been
constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences
of anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The 4 storylines describe the way world population, land use changes,
new technologies, energy resources, economies and political structure
may evolve over the next few decades.

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3
 IPCC Scenarios
◼ Four different narrative storylines: A1, A2, B1, B2
◼Describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces and
their evolution and add context for the scenario quantification
◼ Represents different demographic, social, economic, technological and
environmental developments

A1 storyline:
✓ Future world of very rapid economic growth
✓ Global population that peaks in mid-century
and declines thereafter
✓ Rapid introduction of new and more efficient
technologies.
A2 storyline:
✓ Very heterogeneous world
✓ Continuously increasing global population
✓ Economic development is primarily regionally
oriented
✓ Per capita economic growth and technological
change are more fragmented and slower than in other
storylines
June 11, 2020 6

3
 IPCC Scenarios contd..
B1 storyline:
✓ Convergent world with the same global population
that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter,
as in the A1 storyline
✓ Rapid changes in economic structures toward a
service and information economy with reductions
in material intensity and the introduction of clean
& resource-efficient technologies

B2 storyline:
✓ Emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social,
and environmental sustainability
✓ Continuously increasing global population at a
rate lower than A2
✓ Intermediate levels of economic development, and
less rapid and more diverse technological change
than in the B1 and A1 storylines

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3
IPCC Scenarios contd..

SRES - IPCC Special Report

on Emission Scenarios

Four qualitative storylines yield four sets of scenarios called “families” :

A1, A2, B1 and B2
Six scenario groups drawn from the four families:
one group each in A2, B1, B2, and
three groups within the A1 family, characterizing alternative developments of energy
technologies:
A1FI (fossil fuel intensive),
A1B (balanced), and
June 11, 2020 8
A1T (predominantly non-fossil fuel)
3
 Range of Green House Gas Emissions
in SRES scenarios

Broad Range of Global Warming Projections:

1.0 - 3.5° C by 2100 or 1.5 - 4.5° C for a CO2 doubling

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3
 Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs)

/
/
/

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3
Climate Scenario Development
◼ Contain a sufficient number of variables
◼ Basic set of climate variables: maximum and minimum
temperature, precipitation, radiation/cloud cover,
specific/relative humidity or vapor pressure and wind speed
◼ Spatially compatible - changes in one region are physically
consistent with those in another region and with global changes
◼ Consistent with the broad range of global warming projections:
1.0 - 3.5°c by 2100, or 1.5 - 4.5°c for a CO2 doubling

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General Circulation Models
◼ Most complete models
◼ Models the three dimensionality of the atmosphere
◼ Main components:
◼ Dynamics
◼ Large scale atmospheric transports are done through numerical
schemes
◼ Computed either in rectangular grid space or in spectral space
◼ Physics
◼ Computed in grid space even for spectral GCMs
▪ Pertains to surface and to vertical motion
▪ To limit isolated phenomena such as thunderstorms, to specific locations
◼ Other
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 Dynamics in GCM’s
◼ Any GCM must be formulated
with some fundamental
considerations for
◼ Conservation of momentum
◼ Conservation of mass
◼ Conservation of energy
◼ Ideal gas law
◼ Computed either in rectangular
grid space or in spectral space

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 Downscaling to River Basin Scale
Schematic illustration of the
(a) real world (b) world as represented by GCMs

Small-scale affects (such as

topography) important to local
To enhance the information from GCMs climate are poorly represented
in order to bridge the gap between in GCM
what is supplied by climate models and
what is required by impacts
researchers
Courtesy: The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project
300km

Impact
models
require ...
50km

GCMs impacts
10km

downscaling
1m

Global Climate
Point

large gap
Models supply...
June 11, 2020 14
Courtesy: The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project
 F is modeled dynamically F is modeled empirically from
(through RCM) observational (or modeled) data

19 vertical levels-
atmosphere 2.5
300 km Climate
lat 3.75 Model Grid
long
Points

1.25 km
1.25 km
20 vertical
Levels-soil

GCM

two way one way

nesting nesting
RCM and GCM Driving RCM with
run simultaneously GCM
Feedback from No feedback from
RCM to GCM RCM to GCM

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RCM
 Dynamical downscaling
Global Climate Model

The RCM is coupled to a global

model which regularly provides
boundary conditions to the RCM
during the integration
Regional Climate Model

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Support Vector Machine

• The SVM uses kernel functions to transform the data to a higher, possibly
infinite, dimensional space.
• A linear solution, in the higher dimensional feature space, corresponds to a
non-linear solution in the original lower dimensional input space.
• The mapped objects are linearly separable
• An optimal line is constructed rather than a complex curve to separate objects

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 Classifier margin of a decision
Which decision plane to select ? plane

Defined as the width of

the
boundary before the
decision
plane hitting a data point.

Selected decision plane

Support Vectors are those data points that the margin pushes up against.

This is the principle of simplest kind of SVM called linear SVM

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 Structural Risk Minimization

Actual Risk  Empirical Risk + V C Confidence (function of h / N )

Vapnik(1992)

N : Number of training patterns

h : Vapnik Chervonenkis dimension (proportional to Weights w )

h* : Optimal value of h

Risk
Bound of the risk

Sk ..S*.. S1 VC Confidence

Simple Empirical Risk

structure
Complex Optimal
Structure Structure h
June 11, 2020 19
h* corresponding to S*
 Select probable predictors (PPs)

Methodology for Prepare scatter plots, and compute cross-correlations (CCs) between PPs in NCEP and GCM
data sets, and between PPs in NCEP and the predictand data
Downscaling using SVM
Select/update thresholds Tng & Tnp

No
CCs = thresholds

Yes

Potential predictors (POPs) for downscaling

Standardize the monthly data of POPs extracted from NCEP and GCM datasets

Extract PCs and PDs from Obtain PCs of standardized GCM

standardized NCEP data of POPs to PDs
data of POPs along PDs extracted
prepare feature vectors (FVs) from NCEP data to prepare feature
depicting months vectors (depicting months)

No
75% of FVs form the 25% of FVs form the
training set validation set

Validated SVM model

Calibration and verification of SVM
Model SVM model
Parameters
validation
Grid search method to find
optimum parameter range Yes

Future projections of
Genetic algorithm to predictand
determine optimum Is the performance
parameter value accepted

Comparison of downscaled
June 11, 2020 values with observed values 20
from past record and
estimation of error
Malaprabha Basin
◼ Part of Krishna Basin in
Karnataka
◼ The climate of the study
region is dry, except in
monsoon months
◼ Avg. annual
rainfall:1051mm
◼ Catchment Area:2564 sq
km

◼ GCM output is downscaled

using Support Vector
Machine (SVM)
India
◼ Six Cardinal variables are
downscaled
Arabian ◼ Precipitation
Sea
◼ Maximum Temperature
◼ Minimum Temperature
◼ Wind Speed
Map showing NCEP & GCM grid points and rain gauge
June 11, 2020 ◼ Relative Humidity 21
locations in Malaprabha reservoir catchment ◼ Solar Radiation
Predictors for downscaling different
hydrometeorological variables
Sl. Predictors Predictand
No. (Spatial resolution of 2.5o X 2.5o  75,000 km2 ) (river basin scale
 2500 km2)
1 Temperature at 925mb, 700mb, 500mb, 200mb Precipitation
(Ta 925, Ta 700, Ta 500, Ta 200),
geo-potential height at 925mb, 500mb, 200mb
(Zg 925, Zg 500, Zg 200),
specific humidity at 925mb, 850mb
(Hus 925, Hus 850),
zonal (Ua) and meridional wind velocities (Va) at 925mb,
200mb (Ua 925, Va 925, Ua 200, Va 200),
precipitable water (prw) and surface pressure (ps).
2 Group A – Ta 925, Ua 925, Va 925 Max. & Min.
Group B – latent heat, sensible heat, shortwave Temperature
radiation and longwave radiation fluxes
Group C – comprises of all predictors in Groups A and B

June 11, 2020 22

Predictors for downscaling different
hydrometeorological variables – contd..
Sl. Predictors Predictand
No. (Spatial resolution of 2.5o X 2.5o) (river basin scale)
3 Ua 925, Va 925 Wind speed
4 Ta 925, Hus 925, Ta sur, and LH Relative humidity
5 Precipitable water Cloud cover
6 Group A – 15 predictors, same as predictors Streamflow
selected for precipitation
*Group B –precipitation, max. & min. temperature,
wind speed, relative humidity, cloud cover

* at river basin scale

June 11, 2020 23

 95% quantile BOX PLOT

Upper whisker

Upper Quartile (75% quantile)

Historical (observed) mean
Median (50% quantile)
Mean value of simulations

Lower Quartile
(25% quantile)

Lower whisker

5% quantile

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Downscaling RH* from CGCM3 for different Scenarios
Indicates the mean annual Depicts the mean trend of RH projected by GCM
Past – generally RH (historical )
1978-2000

Predictand
value

The future 100 year simulations are divided into five 20-year periods for each of
Downscaled Downscaled the IPCC scenarios
using NCEP using GCM
predictors predictors
June 11, 2020 25

* Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Springer, 2012

 Downscaled Rainfall
from CGCM3 for different Scenarios*

* International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), UK, 2008

June 11, 2020 26

 Downscaled Maximum Temperature*

• Results show that Tmax is projected to increase in future for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios.
• Projected increase in Tmax is high for A2 scenario, whereas it is least for B1 scenario.
This is because among the scenarios considered, the scenario A2 has the highest
concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) equal to 850 ppm, while the same for A1B,
B2 and COMMIT scenarios are 720 ppm, 550 ppm and ≈370 ppm respectively.
* International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), UK, 2009
June 11, 2020 27
 Downscaled Minimum Temperature*

* International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), UK, 2009

June 11, 2020 28

Downscaled Wind Speed

June 11, 2020 29

Downscaled Cloud Cover

Solar radiation is obtained from downscaled cloud cover and temperature data
June 11, 2020 30
Integration of RS, GIS, DEM and Hydrological Models

RS GIS DEM Hydrological Model

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Integration of RS, GIS, DEM and
Hydrological Models
• Hydrological model is a good tool for understanding and
managing phenomena related to hydrological processes
• RS provides essential inputs for hydrologic models
• GIS provides a platform for simulation of hydrological model
• DEM provides inputs essential for topography
• RS, GIS & DEM combined with mathematical models provide
a convenient platform for handling, compiling and presenting
large amounts of spatial data essential to river basin management

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Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
◼ SWAT is a river basin, or watershed scale model
(Neitsch et al., 2002)

◼ Physically based & Continuous time model

◼ To predict the impact of land management practices on

water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large
complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and
management conditions over long periods of time.

◼ Due to its easy adaptability to situations with limited data

availability, it has become very popular even to study the
climate change impact on a river basin scale
June 11, 2020 33
SWAT - benefits

◼ Watersheds with very limited data (e.g. stream gauge data) can be
modelled.

◼ Relative impact of alternative input data (e.g. changes in

management practices, climate, vegetation, etc.) on water quality
or other variables of interest can be quantified

◼ Uses readily available inputs. While SWAT can be used to study

more specialized processes such as bacteria transport, the minimum
data required to make a run are commonly available from
government agencies.

June 11, 2020 34

ArcView SWAT (AV SWAT)
◼ For modeling purposes, a watershed is partitioned
◼ into a number of sub-basins
◼ which are further subdivided into Hydrological Response
Units (HRUs)
◼ (The HRUs are the aggregated land areas within the sub-basin that
comprise of unique land cover, soil, and management combinations)

AV SWAT is organized in a sequence of several linked tools grouped into eight modules:

(1) Watershed delineation

(2) Definition of Hydrological Response Unit (HRU)
(3) Definition of the weather stations
(4) AVSWAT databases ex. Soil attributes
(5) Input parameterization, editing and scenario management
(6) Model execution
(7) Read and map-chart results and
(8) Calibration tool
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June 11, 2020 36
Land use/ land cover theme of the Malaprabha
reservoir catchment derived from IRS data

June 11, 2020 37

Major soil groups in the Malaprabha reservoir
catchment derived from RS and NBSS & LUP, Nagpur

June 11, 2020 38

 DEM of the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir

June 11, 2020 39

 Stream network in the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir
obtained from AVSWAT model using DEM

June 11, 2020 40

 Drainage sub-basin outlets that are fixed
in the catchment of Malaprabha

June 11, 2020 41

 Sub-basins formed by AVSWAT for the outlets fixed
in the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir

June 11, 2020 42

 Longest stream in each sub-basin obtained from AVSWAT model

June 11, 2020 43

 Area (in ha) under different land use/land cover
and soil textures in the Malaprabha catchment
within sub-basins

PAST
June refers
to pasture or range land; WATR denotes water bodies; URBN represents urban44area;
11, 2020
AGRL stands for agricultural land. Numbers in brackets indicate the percentage of catchment area
 Typical Output from AVSWAT model
for the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir

SURQ, LATQ and GWQ represent surface runoff, lateral flow and groundwater contributions
to streamflow during the month; PERC denotes the amount of water percolating out of root
June 11, 2020 45
zone; ET is actual evapotranspiration for the month; WYLD denotes simulated water yield
Model performance during the validation period
(1994 –2000) m od SWAT e pco 0.75, e s co 0.4

350
Observed SW AT simulated
300
P = 0.97
250

200

150

100

50

0
Jan-94

Jul-94

Jan-95

Jul-95

Jan-96

Jul-96

Jan-97

Jul-97

Jan-98

Jul-98

Jan-99

Jul-99

Jan-00

Jul-00
M onth
Observed and simulated monthly streamflows (in mm)

June 11, 2020 46

Streamflow projections made for various IPCC scenarios
for Malaprabha Basin obtained from AV-SWAT model

Streamflow in mm

June 11, 2020 47

Climate Change Impact Assessment
on Water Resources of other River Basins

June 11, 2020 48

 UN FCCC CoP 21 Paris 2015

June 11, 2020 49

110
 Conclusions

• Climate change and its variability will have significant impact

on Hydrology of river basin
• It is important to understand and quantify these impacts
• Remote Sensing, GIS and DEM are very useful tools to assess
water resources of a river basin
• Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources
should be investigated for effective planning and management of
water resources

June 11, 2020 50

110
 Future Scope

• Detection & Attribution (DnA) of climate change: Natural/

Anthropogenic
• Uncertainty in models, scenarios etc.
• Advances in Remote Sensing, GIS and DEM
• Policy implications

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110
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 Thank you
Email: nagesh@iisc.ac.in
Home Page: http://www.civil.iisc.ac.in/~nagesh

June 11, 2020 54

 Scenarios Considered:
20C3M, SRES A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT (in IPCC AR4)
IPCC Data set Description Duration
scenario
20C3M Climate of Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and 1870 –
the 20th other input data are based on historical 2000
Century records or estimates beginning around
the time of the Industrial Revolution.
COMMIT Year 2000 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 2001 –
CO2 held at year 2000 levels. This 2100
maximum experiment is based on conditions that
already exist (e.g., “committed” climate
change).
SRES 720 ppm A1 story line, balance across fossil and 2001 –
A1B CO2 non-fossil energy source 2100
maximum
• Scenarios based on GCM simulations are used

June 11, 2020 55