IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON GROUNDWATER
RESOURCES
Need for hydrological modeling

Assessment of impact on groundwater due to

• Changes in LULC

• Changes in climate variables

Hydrological modelling - Workflow
Database structuring (meteorological and geographical)
 Data retrieving and processing
Simulation Models
 Model Choice
 Model calibration and validation
 Model run
Impact assessment
Adaption/Mitigation strategies
Simulation of A/M strategies
Hydrological Model Choice
• What time scale are you looking for?

• What hydrologic quantity are you trying to obtain?

• What data do you require for the study area?

Hydrological Model Application
• Rainfall to runoff – simulation and prediction

• Surface water and groundwater assessment

• Evaluation of watershed
Climate change impacts
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IPCC 2001
The IPCC has finalized the second part of the Sixth Assessment
Report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,
the Working Group II contribution. It was finalized on 27 February 2022
during the 
12th Session of Working Group II and 55th Session of the IPCC.
• IPCC –AR5, 2014 RCP Scenarios- (Rep. Conc. Pathways)
RCP2.6; RCP4.5; RCP6; RCP8.5
IPCC-AR6, 2021 SSPs-(Shared Socio-Economic Pathways)
SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7; SSP5-8.54
Objective-1

Examine recent climate variability and extreme events, as well as their

effects on regional water resources and groundwater availability.
Projecting Climate change Impact in
Groundwater
Climate Change Projection Topography land use
(Rainfall, precipitation, Patterns; Soil
temperature,) Characteristics;

Downscaling

Hydrologic Model

Possible Future Hydrologic Scenarios on the basin scale

(Stream flow, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil
moisture, groundwater recharge etc.,)
Methodology-1
• The climate change impacts are analyzed using 5 GCMs
And two critical scenarios i.e., RCP 4.5 And RCP 8.5 will be analyzed
separately.
• To identify the impacts of future climatology; GCM output will be
used in three-time slices; T1(2010-2040), T2(2041-2070), and
T3(2071-2099)
• In the third Scenario, The model will run to obtain the baseline period
(1985-2010) and projected for a future period (2011-2100) with
climate.
Data Collection and its sources

• The initial step of the modeling process is to develop a conceptual model. To develop a conceptual
model for the KMC area, the data is prepared accordingly viz. Generation of watershed boundaries
and streams using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 90 m spatial resolution. It can be obtained
from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). (Available on Bhuvan site). It is used to
create a watershed boundary, and streams (rivers), and then the same DEM is used to create to
represent the different layers above and below ground level (creating surface in terms of model
inputs). The model also requires well data such as observation wells, pumping wells, and point
data (initial water level) to be obtained from Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) and Central
Water Commission – Water Resource Information System (CWC-WRIS).
Methodology-1
Step 1.

Identification of critical hydrologic exposures that could result in local failures of water resource
systems in watershed boundaries. Critical exposures are evaluated in combination with
conventional guidelines and management practices. The river basin's vulnerable components are
identified, as is the risk exposure. Water resource risk is evaluated from three different
perspectives: risk and reliability (how frequently the system fails), resiliency (how quickly the
system returns to a satisfactory state after a failure), and vulnerability (how significant are the
likely consequences of a failure). This is done in collaboration with local water authorities.
Step 2.

In the next step, the identified critical hydrologic exposures (such as floods and
droughts) are transformed into corresponding critical meteorological conditions
(e.g. extreme precipitation events, sudden warming, prolonged dry spells). A
hydrologic model is used to establish the inverse link between hydrologic and
meteorological processes. Reservoir operation, floodplain management, and other
anthropogenic interventions in the basin are also included in the model.
Step 3.

A weather generator (WG) is used to simulate critical meteorological conditions under

present and future climatic scenarios. The WG produces synthetic weather data that are
statistically similar to the observed data. Since the focus is mainly on extreme
hydrologic events, the generator reflects not only the mean conditions but also the
statistical properties of extreme meteorological events. The K-NN algorithm is used to
perform strategic resampling to derive new daily weather data with altered mean or
variability. In strategic resampling, new weather sequences are generated from the
historical record based on prescribed conditioning criteria. For a given climatic
variable, regional periodical deviations are calculated for each year and for each period.
Step 4.

In the final stage, the parameters of the WG are linked with global circulation models
(GCM) and an ensemble of simulations reflecting different future climatic conditions is
generated. The frequency of critical meteorological events causing specific water
resource risks is then assessed from the WG outputs. The main advantages of the
inverse approach over the traditional top-down approach are:
(i) a focus on specific existing and potential water resource problems;
(ii) a direct link with the end-user and
(iii) easy updating, when new and improved GCM outputs become available
Methodology-2
This study will be conducted in three main parts:
In the first stage, The regional groundwater parameters of the research area will
be mapped based on the interpretation of data from piezometer wells. Under several
scenarios, annual rainfall in the area was simulated using the climatic model LARS-
WG.
In the second stage, groundwater recharge from the rainfall and irrigation in the
study area were estimated using the inverse modeling approach and remote sensing
(RS) (Ebrahimi et al., 2016). For confirmation, the performance of the hydrological
model to simulate the aquifer conditions and groundwater recharge will be simulated
using MODFLOW.
 Finally, after model confirmation, the future condition of the aquifer and
groundwater recharge from predicted rainfall can be simulated using the calibrated
hydrological model and the generated weather data.
Workflow process for MODFLOW (Source: Patil et al., 2016)