Pitcher Rating - Stats as of July 27, 2011

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 NAME Jered Weaver Justin Verlander CC Sabathia Clayton Kershaw Roy Halladay Cole Hamels Tommy Hanson Jair Jurrjens Dan Haren Ian Kennedy James Shields Josh Beckett Brian Wilson Craig Kimbrel Cliff Lee Jonny Venters C.J. Wilson Drew Storen Felix Hernandez Ryan Vogelsong Tim Lincecum Shaun Marcum John Axford Joel Hanrahan Matt Cain Jaime Garcia Heath Bell Gio Gonzalez David Price Alexi Ogando Jose Valverde Jon Lester Daniel Hudson Scott Baker Justin Masterson Anibal Sanchez Jonathan Papelbon Yovani Gallardo Michael Pineda Max Scherzer Josh Tomlin Jeff Karstens Aaron Harang Mariano Rivera Jonathon Niese LEAGUE AL AL AL NL NL NL NL NL AL NL AL AL NL NL NL NL AL NL AL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL AL AL AL AL AL NL AL AL NL AL NL AL AL AL NL NL AL NL W 14 14 15 12 12 12 11 12 10 11 9 9 6 3 9 5 10 5 9 8 8 9 2 0 8 10 2 9 9 10 2 10 10 8 8 6 2 11 8 11 11 8 9 1 10 L 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 3 6 3 8 3 2 2 6 1 4 2 9 1 8 3 2 1 6 4 3 7 9 4 3 4 6 5 7 3 0 7 7 6 5 5 2 1 8 SV HLD BSV SO 134 169 156 173 147 134 130 80 130 118 151 107 45 81 148 66 135 40 153 78 146 110 60 39 116 111 31 124 141 89 42 116 109 109 107 138 57 117 123 114 73 64 72 28 110 RS 3.97 5.05 7.58 5.32 5.39 5.51 5.97 5.88 4.24 5.88 4.09 5.14 0.00 0.00 4.64 0.00 6.32 0.00 4.36 5.42 4.62 5.97 0.00 0.00 4.33 7.52 0.00 6.35 5.10 7.69 0.00 8.20 6.16 5.60 4.96 5.04 0.00 7.50 5.02 7.28 7.08 5.19 6.64 0.00 6.66 WHIP 0.95 0.89 1.11 1.04 1.05 0.96 1.09 1.12 1.00 1.13 1.01 0.90 1.38 1.06 1.11 0.93 1.20 0.93 1.21 1.22 1.20 1.11 1.35 0.90 1.09 1.23 1.16 1.28 1.11 1.02 1.38 1.23 1.23 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.1 1.36 1.09 1.38 1.02 1.07 1.30 1.02 1.38 ERA 1.79 2.34 2.56 2.72 2.55 2.62 2.62 2.44 3.01 3.22 2.53 2.07 2.83 2.12 3.05 1.30 3.16 2.37 3.35 2.10 2.90 3.35 2.66 1.18 3.06 3.01 2.40 2.67 3.76 2.79 3.05 3.23 3.72 2.88 2.57 3.60 3.59 3.89 3.64 4.28 4.01 2.41 3.45 1.83 3.72 PR 48.78 48.10 42.55 42.26 39.70 37.17 32.78 32.33 31.93 31.67 31.47 31.30 30.99 30.90 30.07 29.46 29.08 27.11 26.89 25.65 25.48 25.29 25.29 25.19 24.69 24.34 23.60 23.45 23.25 23.06 23.00 22.88 22.71 22.63 22.58 21.69 21.66 21.39 21.35 21.25 20.34 20.22 19.67 19.54 19.22 3 1 13 8 2 5 10 4 11 17 6 9 15 36 7 19 23 29 18 42 30 31 32 14 21 NR 28 12 20 39 45 27 24 43 NR 25 NR 44 16 NR NR NR NR NR NR

31 31 3 25 21

4 5 2 3

28 24

2 0

29

27

23

26

Pitcher Rating - Stats as of July 27, 2011

22 26 33 34 35 DROPPED FROM RANKINGS: Philip Humber 37 Kyle Lohse Jhoulys Chacin 38 Bartolo Colon Francisco Cordero 40 Trevor Cahill Kevin Correia 41 Johnny Cueto Ricky Romero

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ESPN Cy Young Predictor AL NL Barry Zito Randy Johnson Keith Foulke Mark Prior Johan Santana Eric Gagne Mariano Rivera Chris Carpenter Johan Santana Brandon Webb CC Sabathia Jake Peavy Cliff Lee Tim Lincecum Felix Hernandez Adam Wainwright CC Sabathia Roy Halladay

Ross Clites Pitcher Rating AL NL Pedro Martinez Randy Johnson Roy Halladay Eric Gagne Johan Santana Eric Gagne Mariano Rivera Chris Carpenter Johan Santana Brandon Webb CC Sabathia Jake Peavy Cliff Lee Tim Lincecum Felix Hernandez Tim Lincecum CC Sabathia Roy Halladay

Since the inception of the ESPN Cy Young Predictor in 2002, it has "predicted" the winner with 61.1% accuracy. In that same time span, Pitcher Rating has a 72.2% correlation to the actual voting. The two formulas are in agreement that last year's AL winner should have been CC Sabathia, as well as Felix Hernandez in '09, Mariano Rivera in '05, and Eric Gagne in '04. The egregious difference between the two formulas comes in 2003, where the Cy Young Predictor rewarded one closer too much and another not enough. A Cy Young Award winner should at least pass the eye test. Keith Foulke and Mark Prior? Seriously? Foulke finished seventh in the vote, Prior taking third. It seems that the ESPN Cy Young Predictor has not learned; saves are not the ticket to the Cy Young Award when starting pitchers are going this well. 2011 ESPN Cy Young Predictor AL NL Jered Weaver Brian Wilson CC Sabathia Roy Halladay Justin Verlander Cole Hamels Josh Beckett Clayton Kershaw C.J. Wilson Craig Kimbrel Dan Haren Jair Jurrjens Alexi Ogando Drew Storen 2011 Ross Clites Pitcher Rating AL NL Jered Weaver Clayton Kershaw Justin Verlander Roy Halladay CC Sabathia Cole Hamels Dan Haren Tommy Hanson James Shields Jair Jurrjens Josh Beckett Ian Kennedy C.J. Wilson Brian Wilson

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