"Muharram w||| be very nasty th|s year |n 8ahra|n"

8obtolo bos seeo o mojot optlsloq oqolost lts ootbotltotloo teqlme stottloq oo lebtooty 14
tb

wbeo sevetol booJteJ tboosooJ 8obtolols took to tbe ceottol leotl koooJoboot lo tbe copltol
Mooomo 1be qovetomeot otoooJ tbe Al kbollfo toyol fomlly bos teocteJ wltb o vloleot
ctockJowo klllloq mote tboo 40 ooJ lmptlsooloq ooJ tottotloq tboosooJs ttyloq to slleoce
tbe opposltloo 1be kloq felt ptessoteJ eoooqb to set op o bomoo tlqbts commlssloo to
lovestlqote oboses wblcb ls Joe to pteseot tbelt tesolt lo ooly o few Joys oo Novembet 2J
tJ

lo foce of tbe teptessloo mooy octlvlsts boJ to flee tbe coootty Alsbotp spoke to ooe of tbem
oow lo exlle lo tbe uk ne explolos wbot ls stlll boppeoloq lo 8obtolo wbot be expects ftom
tbe tesolts of tbe lopolty commlssloo ooJ bow be sees tbe ptospects of tbe opposltloo
movemeot lo 8obtolo

lo yoot owo wotJs wbot bos boppeoeJ lo 8obtolo sloce tbe beqlooloq of tbls yeot?
8ahraln has been sLrongly lnfluenced by Lhe Arab Sprlng 1he lnlLlal proLesLs ln lebruary
were counLered wlLh Lhe crackdown by Lhe reglme LhaL massacred seven on lebruary 17
Lh

Crown rlnce Salman bln Pamad Lhen lnLroduced a dlalogue wlLh Lhe opposlLlon and Lhey
achleved an agreemenL ln seven polnLs by March 8uL ln facL [usL days laLer Lhe Saudl army
was broughL Lo 8ahraln on March 14
Lh
and emergency law was declared 1hen Lhe
crackdown began arLlcularly Lhe Shl'a ma[orlLy was LargeLed wlLh people belng puL lnLo
prlson belng LorLured and even kllled dlsmlssed from Lhelr [obs and Lhelr houses belng
ralded by nlghL
ln !uly Lhen Lhe klng announced a new round of naLlonal ulalogue whlch was headed by
khallfa Aldharanl Lhe Pead of arllamenL lL falled qulckly Lhough because Lhe opposlLlon
reallzed LhaL lL was compleLely unfalr
1he governmenL Lhen lnlLlaLed a commlLLee of lnqulry Lo 'lnvesLlgaLe' whaL had happened
1he 'lndependenL 8oyal Puman 8lghLs Commlsslon' has Lhe conLradlcLlon already ln lLs
name lLs flndlngs are Lo be presenLed nexL week on november 23
rd
We are pesslmlsLlc
abouL whaL lL wlll come up wlLh 1he klng [usL uses Lhe Commlsslon as a flg leaf Lo presenL
hlmself ln a poslLlve llghL ln Lhe meanLlme hls forces conLlnue Lo desLroy Shl'a mosques and
welfare lnsLlLuLlons

AoJ wbot bos become of tbe ptotests?
1hey are ongolng! 1here are dally demonsLraLlons alLhough Lhey cannoL be held on earl
Square any longer 8lgger are Lhe weekly ones Lvery lrlday Lhere ls proLesLs ln Manama

uoes tbe opposltloo JemooJ tbe some oow os lt JlJ oloe mootbs oqo?
Cur demand for a reform of Lhe reglme has remalned Lhe same 1he massacre we have seen
however has led some groups Lo more drasLlc demands 1hey wanL Lo see an overLhrow of
Lhe reglme And Lhelr vlew has galned supporL over Lhe pasL monLhs
1he crackdown has generally sLrengLhened Lhe opposlLlon Lspeclally young people who
were noL very lnLeresLed ln pollLlcs before have goLLen more engaged 1he youLh ls geLLlng
more organlzed

now ls tbls opposltloo otqoolzeJ?
8aslcally Lhere are Lwo layers of opposlLlon Cn Lhe one hand Lhere are Lhe slx maln 'pollLlcal
socleLles' whlch are offlclally reglsLered supporL a consLlLuLlonal monarchy and have some
seaLs ln Lhe parllamenL 1hey are Lhe maln drlvers of Lhe sLreeL rlghL now
Cn Lhe oLher hand you can flnd Lhree lllegal opposlLlon groups LhaL acLually demand a
republlc 1hey conslsL malnly of young people uneducaLed who have been dlscrlmlnaLed
agalnsL as Shl'a for long

5blo moke op oboot 70 of tbe popolotloo bot bove looq beeo systemotlcolly JlsoJvootoqeJ
lo 8obtolo ooJ lock ooy polltlcol tepteseototloo Now lt ls mololy 5blo ptotestloq ls tbe
opposltloo o sectotloo movemeot tbeo?
no lL ls noL a secLarlan movemenL lL ls a naLlonal movemenL 1he opposlLlon flghLs for
consLlLuLlonal reform and equallLy noL for a quoLa llke lL was ln Lebanon 1haL Lhe ma[orlLy
of proLesLers ls Shl'a ls naLural Shl'a are Lhe ma[orlLy Lhey wlll have greaLer presence

wbot kloJ of teqlme Jo tbey foce? now oolteJ ls tbe qovetomeot?
We have Lhree groups wlLhln Lhe royal famlly llrsL klng Pamad Al khallfa hlmself who really
ls a very weak flgure Pe has close Lles wlLh Saudl Arabla Second Lhe rlme MlnlsLer who ls
Lhe klng's uncle and Lhe Lrue head of Lhe famlly Pe ls Lhe real hardllner and by Lhe way Lhe
longesL servlng prlme mlnlsLer ln Lhe world havlng been ln power for over 40 years And
flnally Lhe Crown rlnce who ls Lhe commander ln chlef of Lhe 8ahralnl army Pe ls Lhe one
who has shown mosL wllllngness for dlalogue buL he ls also Lhe weakesL one wlLhln Lhe royal
famlly 1hese groups have always exlsLed buL Lhey only came Lo Lhe surface afLer Lhe
demonsLraLlons ln lebruary

ls 8obtolo o cose typlcol fot tbe Atob 5ptloq? wbot mokes 8obtolo Jlffeteot ftom otbet Atob
cooottles?
1here ls one ma[or dlfference 8ahraln does noL have an lndependenL naLlonal army 1he
army ls conLrolled by Lhe royal famlly and wlll noL sLand wlLh Lhe people llke armles dld ln
oLher cases for example ln LgypL Cverall 8ahraln has seen Lhe mosL peaceful of all
upheavals across Lhe Mlddle LasL And Lhe wldesL parLlclpaLlon! ln lebruary one Lhlrd of Lhe
populaLlon was ouL on Lhe sLreeLs you haven'L seen LhaL ln any oLher counLry

wbot Jo yoo pteJlct wlll boppeo lo tbe oeot fotote?
lL ls only a maLLer of Llme LhaL Lhe opposlLlon wlll galn sLrengLh agaln l can see Lhe monLh of
Muharram becomlng very nasLy Lhls year ln 8ahraln Muharram ls a sacred monLh especlally
for Lhe Shl'a commemoraLlng Lhe marLyr Pusaln bln All who reslsLed Lhe Lyranny of Lhe
pollLlcal reglme Pls faLe has a real pollLlcal meanlng Loday
l Lhlnk Lhe governmenL wlll reacL even more vlolenLly 8uL Lhe more Lhey do so Lhe less
scared people wlll be Lo acL Many people say We have noLhlng more Lo loose" lf you have
seen LorLure lmprlsonmenL deaLh of someone near Lo you how much worse can lL geL?

AoJ lo tbe looq too?
lor Lhe long run l hope for a pollLlcal soluLlon 8uL honesLly l do noL see lL happen l Lhlnk Lhe
reglme ls qulLe crazy rlghL now l am afrald LhaL whaL happens ln 8ahraln could Lrlgger a
secLarlan war across Lhe whole reglon We saw how lL can go When Lhe people Look Lo Lhe
sLreeLs ln Manama proLesLs sLarLed ln Lhe LasLern provlnces of Saudl Arabla where Lhe Shl'a
are slmllarly dlscrlmlnaLed agalnsL 1he Sunnl Saudl rulers were exLremely qulck ln
suppresslng Lhe uprlslng and Lhe Saudl army was deployed ln 8ahraln as well 8y now Lhe
declslon abouL whaL ls done abouL Lhe proLesLs does noL lle ln Manama anymore lL lles ln
8lad And Lhlngs mlghL geL Lough

now woolJ yoo wlsb tbe west teoct to wbot boppeos lo 8obtolo?
l hope for more pressure from Lhe WesL lL mlghL lmprove Lhe slLuaLlon 1hey have
pressured ln 1unlsla ln Llbya so why would Lhey noL pressure ln 8ahraln? l wonder Are Lhey
Loo scared of democracy? Cr Loo scared of Saudl Arabla and worrled abouL geLLlng Lhelr oll
from Lhere?

1book yoo fot yoot tlme ooJ loslqbts