Professional Documents
Culture Documents
motivated event affecting the outcome of an investment Instability vs. risk Classified based on - actor responsible - nature of effect - breadth (micro vs. macro)
Cause Result Property Loss Income Loss Government Confiscation Discrimination Others Destruction Disruption
Many hosts have joined MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency) Some controversy over future:
- is free enterprise here to stay, or will there be a backlash when privatization, etc. fails to provide widespread benefits?
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What kind of cross-fire problems associated with Iraq winemakers in the Bordeaux region faced?
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Political Risk
Empirical Relationship
Most studies examine correlates of expropriation Minor (1993): no link with stability Positive correlations (more risk) - extractive, service and key sectors - JVs with the host government - host countries with pervasive governments (hands-on) - medium-technology - need for scapegoats - obsolescing bargains
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Negative correlations (less risk) - integrated subsidiaries that depend on rest of network - low/high tech - lobbying
Makhija (1993): information indicating convergence of MNC actions and government economic objectives
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Forecasting Techniques
old hands = ask experts for gut instinct, personal evaluations - taps expertise, but may be dated, subjective or irrelevant grand tour = send executives for personal visits - access to top decision makers, first-hand exposure, but superficial - may hear self-interested pleading quantitative - Delphi: obtain expert views, aggregate and give to same experts for chance to revise their views given what others think; repeat until consensus - tends towards conventional predictions - econometric: use historical data, macro-orientation, but 14 low-cost, may be helpful for initial screening
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50 points
politics: bad neighbours authoritarianism staleness illegitimacy generals in power war/armed insurrection
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Political Analysis
Expert qualitative studies - rational actor-type
- what is the logical action given goals - best if unitary actor and major decision
- organizational type
- organizations do what they have always done - best for small decisions by bureaucracies
Political bargaining type - who has power and influence where - best for fractionated power environments Results are best when model fits the characteristics of 18 the decision and the decision-maker
Examination of FDI costs and benefits - Benefits: Capital inflow, job creation, better jobs (?), tax revenue, improved balance of payment, technology transfer, training, market access
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