ICT Diffusion in the Republic of Armenia

Katy E. Pearce, Georgetown University

kep63@georgetown.edu @katypearce on Twitter www.katypearce.net/cv Methods
Caucasus Barometer nationally representative public opinion poll 2007-2010 (N = 2458, 2047, 1975, 1922) Structural equation modeling with latent SES variable

Introduction
Armenia: high poverty, high literacy context - GDP USD 5900, 99% literacy - Unusual in digital divide studies - Unique language not well supported in ICTs - Technology costs decreasing

Armenian Household Mobile Phone Adoption

140%
125%

120%

100%
85% 91% 87% 92%

80%
70% 61%

76%

81% 77% 81%

ITU CB Gallup

Questions:
- What are the socioeconomic determinants of ownership of a personal computer and mobile phone? - What are the socioeconomic determinants of personal computer skill? - What relationship, if any, does foreign language skill have with personal computer skill? - What, if any, over time changes occured between 2007-2010?
Armenian Household PC Adoption
50% 45%

72%

60%

64%

SES education and perceived economic condition

41%

47%

0.68 0.58 0.51 0.59

Mobile Own

40%

25%

20%
10% 2% 4% 7%

0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Error (edu) 0.12 0.19 0.19 0.15

Error (econ) 0.46 0.34 0.26 0.35

Error 0.33 0.32 0.29 0.29 Error 0.37 0.45 0.43 0.33

Error 0.46 0.34 0.26 0.35

H1: supported in all 4 years H2: supported in all 4 years H3: supported in all 4 years H4: supported in all 4 years H5: supported in all 4 years H6: supported in all 4 years H7: not supported

Results

Variance explained:

40%

40%

35%

English
30%
27%

2007 14% PC own; 46% mobile own, 37% PC skill 2008 12% PC own; 34% mobile own, 45% PC skill 2009 17% PC own; 26% mobile own, 45% PC skill 2010 25% PC own; 35% mobile own, 47% PC skill
0.34 0.28 0.40 0.33

25%

ITU CB Gallup

0.58 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.63 0.67 0.64 0.58 SES education and perceived economic condition Russian -0.08 -0.11 -0.09 -0.05

Conclusion
Although there is high mobile adoption in Armenia, the bottom of the pyramid is still unable to purchase a phone. Personal computer ownership, despite growth, is still only accessible to the highest levels of socioeconomic status. Personal computer skill is determined by experience, but also (and more strongly) by English skill, even controllling for economic and educational factors.

20%
17% 17% 15% 11% 8% 15% 15%

15%
12% 14% 11%

10%

10%

5%

6% 4%

7%

0%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

H1: SES -> PC own H2: SES -> mobile own H3: SES -> PC skill H4: SES -> English skill H5: SES -> Russian skill H6: English skill -> PC skill H7: Russian skill -> PC skill

Hypotheses

0.12 0.35 0.31 0.50 Error (edu) 0.50 0.57 0.61 0.64

0.38 0.48 0.32 0.35

PC Skill

0.21 0.13 0.17 0.21 Error 0.37 0.45 0.45 0.47

PC Own Error (econ) 0.11 0.14 0.09 0.11

Error 0.14 0.12 0.17 0.25