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MAJOR PROJECT ON
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN BATHINDA REGION A STUDY DURING RECESSION PERIOD

(For the partial fulfillment of Degree of Master of Business Administrative)

Session 2008-2010

Under the guidance of: MR. AMANDEEP SINGH (SR.LECTURER)

Submitted by: ANKUSH MAHAJAN ROLL-NO.-2105 CLASS- MBA-2ND

(MARKETING)

Submitted to:

PUNJABI UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS STUDIES GURU KASHI CAMPUS, TALWANDI SABO BATHINDA
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
with deep sense of gratitude I would like to take this opportunities thank to my honorable Project Guide, Mr. Amandeep Singh (senior lecturer), USBS

Talwandi Sabo who always a sincere advisor and inspiring force behind this report . He has been extremely generous with his time and rendered me all possible help to see this work complete .I could not have asked more cooperating guide her invaluable and unstinted support has always given me the confidence to do the work without his guidance this project report would not be the light of the day. In addition to them I would also I like to thanks my friends and various private and public sector banks that were of immense help to me for data collection. I would also like to thanks to my honorable H.O.D. to giving me opportunity to work on this project. Last but not least I like to thanks my parents, their support thought the making of this project.

DATE : .

ANKUSH MAHAJAN ROLL- NO. - 2105 MBA-II (MARKETING)

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STUDENT DECLARATION
We hereby declare that the project report entitled performance evaluation of public and private sector banks in Bathinda region- A study during recession period submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of masters of business Administration to Punjabi University School of Business Studies India, are our original work and not submitted for the award of any other degree, diploma, fellowship, or any other similar title or prizes.

(Signature of student) Ankush Mahajan Roll-No.-2105

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PUNJABI UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS STUDIES GURU KASHI CAMPUS, TALWANDI SABO (BATHINDA)

TO WHOMSOEVER IT MAY CONCERN

This is to certified that the project work entitled PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN BATHINDA REGION-A STUDY DURING RECESSION PERIOD done by ANKUSH MAHAJAN (ROLL NO.- 2105, MARKETING) to be submitted to PUSBS TALWANDI SABO in year 2010 for partial fulfillment of the degree of MBA (MARKETING) has been carried out under the guidance and supervision. This is an original piece and no part of this work has been submitted for any other degree.

DATE: .

AMANDEEP SINGH (SENIOR LECTURER) University School of Business Studies Talwandi Sabo (Bathinda)

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CONTENTS
Abstract Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Review of literature Chapter 3: Need of the study Chapter 4: Design of the Study 4.1 Statement of the Problem 4.2 Objective of the Research 4.3 Scope of the Research 4.4 Research Methodology 4.5 Plan of Analysis 4.6 Limitations of Study Chapter 5: Data Analysis and Interpretation 5.1 Data Analysis 5.2 Interpretation Chapter 6: Conclusion Bibliography Annexure 1. Results of HSc10 ...V ..1-12 ...13-17 .18-19 .20-23 .21 22 . ..22 22 ..22-23 23 ..23-35 .....24 ..34-35 .36-37 .. 38-39 .. .40-44

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INDEX OF TABLES

Table 5.1: NPA s of public bank Table 5.2: NPA s of private banks Table 5.3: Loan disbursed by public bank Table 5.4: Loan disbursed by private banks Table5.5: Trend in saving in public banks Table 5.6: Trend in saving in private saving Table 5.7: Table showing variable number

....................................25 .25 26 .26 27 .27 ...28 .30 ...32

Table 5.8: Table showing values after applying t- test Table 5.9: Table showing trend function

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ABSTRACT
A strong and efficient financial system is critical to the attainment of the objectives of creating a market-driven, productive and competitive economy and to support higher investment levels and accentuate growth. Banking by far is the most dominant segment of the financial system and plays a pivotal role in the development of an economy. A healthy banking system, besides providing necessary architecture for facilitating economic growth, also serves as a strong repository of liquidity. The Indian banking system has traversed a long journey to come to this phase where the health and quality of the banking system and the contribution made by it in the economic development can be comparable to the International standards. But there are certain stages in the business cycle which affect the business it may be recession which shake the whole economy or a system that prevails in the country. The current recession starts from the banking industry and it affect the whole economy of USA and those which are somewhere related with the USA. This project is an outcome of the research on the performance evaluation of the banks both public and private sector banks in Bathinda region during the recession period. The project contains the brief description of the recession, main cause of recession and its impact. A survey was conducted to get the data to judge the impact of recession on banks of Bathinda and thus the first part of the paper scrutinizes the recession its impact on economy. Second part related to the banking system in India. Third part related to the data related to the research. It concerns with the NPA (non-performing assets) of banks, total loan disbursed by the banks trend in saving in banks. We require this data because it helps in judgment of the performance of the

banks as recession leads to the financial crises. So this helps in finding of performance of the banks both public and private sector banks. The last part of the report includes analysis of related data which envisage the performance of the private and public sector banks in Bathinda region during recession period. Although the research reports shows that commercial banks do better than the private sector banks during this period. So whole report is shows how the banking system of Bathinda is affected by the recession.
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CHAPTER-I INTRODUCTION

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RECESSION
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity over a period of time. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits and inflation all fall during recessions; while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise .Recessions are generally believed to be caused by a drop in spending. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies, such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation. Most mainstream economists believe that recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand in the economy, and favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. Monetarists would favor the use of expansionary monetary policy, while Keynesian economists may advocate increased government spending to spark economic growth. Supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital investment. Laissez-faire minded economists may simply recommend that the government not interfere with natural market forces.

ATTRIBUTES OF RECESSION
A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and includes declines in coincident measures of activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an economic depression, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes, such as V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped and W-shaped recessions.

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PREDICTORS OF A RECESSION
Although there are no completely reliable predictors, the following are regarded to be possible predictors:
y

In the US a significant stock market drop has often preceded the beginning of a recession. However about half of the declines of 10% or more since 1946 have not been followed by recessions. In about 50% of the cases a significant stock market decline came only after the recessions had already begun.

Inverted yield curve, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. It is, however, not a definite indicator;.

y y y

The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims. Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators). Lowering of Home Prices. Lowering of home prices or value, too much personal debts.

CAUSES OF RECESSION
A recession is primarily caused by the actions taken to control the money supply in the economy. The Federal Reserve is responsible for maintaining an ideal balance between money supply, interest rates, and inflation. When The Federal Reserve loses balance in this equation, the economy is forced to correct itself. The various causes for the economic recession are:

1. Subprime lending as a cause:

Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations are in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. United States. The United States housing market correction (a
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consequence of United States housing bubbles) and subprime mortgage crisis has significantly contributed to a recession. The 2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. With consumer confidence so low, recovery will take a long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market. Not only have consumers watched their wealth being eroded they are now fearing for their jobs a sun employment rises. It is the main reason of recession of2008 due to which the global economy suffers. Based on the assumption that subprime lending precipitated the crisis, the general economic slowdown that ensued in the later stages of the crisis, in particular after the global crisis of confidence in September and October 2008, meant that bank losses became more closely connected to macroeconomic performance. In this period, the majority of write downs were more directly linked to a surge in borrower defaults and to anticipated defaults as evidenced by the increase in the amount and relative importance of provisioning expenses.

IMPACT OF RECESSIONS
Impact of recession was observed in India in 2008, October due to global financial crises. The major impact of recession are :

Unemployment
The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. Research in Britain shows that low-skilled, low-educated workers and the young are most vulnerable to unemployment in a downturn.

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Business
Productivity tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, and then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in profitability between firms rises sharply. Recessions have also provided opportunities for anti-competitive mergers, with a negative impact on the wider economy.

Social effects
The living standards of people dependent on wages and salaries are more affected by recessions than those who rely on fixed incomes or welfare benefits. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being.

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AN OVERVIEW OF INDIAN BANKING SYSTEM:

In India, the ancient Hindi Scripture refers to money lending activities in the Vedic period. During the Ramayana and Mahabharata eras , banking has become full fledge business activity and during Manu Smriti period which followed the Vedic period Epic age, the business of banking was carried on by the members of vaish community. Banking plays two different functions, one is accepting deposits sand other of lending monies and investment and/ funds. The word bank is said to be derived from French word Bancus or Banque that is a bench. It is believed that the early bankers, Jews of Lombardy, transect their business on benches in the marketplace. Other believes it is derived from German word Back meaning a joint stock fund. So banks are the commercials concerns that collect money from those who have it to spare or who are saving it out of their income, and lend to those who require it. In other word a bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities. Banks primarily provide financial services to customers while enriching investors. Government restrictions on financial activities by banks vary over time and location. Banks are important players in financial markets and offer services such as investment funds and loans. In some countries such as Germany, banks have historically owned major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United States banks are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. In Japan, banks are usually the nexus of a cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. In France, bancassurance is prevalent, as most banks offer insurance services (and now real estate services) to their clients. Banks act as payment agents by conducting checking or current accounts for customers, paying cheques drawn by customers on the bank, and collecting cheques deposited to customers' current accounts. Banks also enable customer payments via other payment methods such as telegraphic transfer, and ATM .Banks borrow money by accepting funds deposited on current accounts, by accepting term deposits, and by issuing debt securities such as banknotes and bonds. Banks lend money by making advances to customers on current accounts, by making installment loans, and by investing
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in marketable debt securities and other forms of money lending. Banks provide almost all payment services, and a bank account is considered indispensable by most businesses, individuals and governments. Non-banks that provide payment services such as remittance companies are not normally considered an adequate substitute for having a bank count. Banks borrow most funds from households and non-financial businesses, and lend most funds to households and non-financial businesses, but non-bank lenders provide a significant and in many cases adequate substitute for bank loans, and money market funds, cash management trusts and other non-bank financial institutions in many cases provide an adequate substitute to banks for lending savings to. The level of government regulation of the banking industry varies widely, with countries such as Iceland, having relatively light regulation of the banking sector, and countries such as China having a wide variety of regulations but no systematic process that can be followed typical of a communist system. The modern banking system began with the opening of bank of englandin1694. Bank of Hindustan was first bank to be established in India, in 1970. Banking system in India is dominated by nationalized banks. The nationalization of the banks took place in the time of late Mrs. Indira Gandhi in 1969with another installment in of 6 Banks on 15April 1980, the main objective is of nationalization was to insure mass banking as against class banking with bank infrastructure aimed at hilly tracts and terrains of the country .prior to 1969, State bank of India (SBI) was the only public sector bank in India. SBI was nationalized in 1955 under the SBI act of 1955. In the early 1990s, the then Narsimha Rao government embarked on a policy of liberalization, licensing a small number of private banks. These came to be known as New Generation tech-savvy banks, and included Global Trust Bank (the first of such new generation banks to be set up), which later amalgamated with Oriental Bank of Commerce, Axis Bank(earlier as UTI Bank), ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. This move, along with the rapid growth in the economy of India, revitalized the banking sector in India, which has seen rapid growth with strong contribution from all the three sectors of
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banks, namely, government banks, private banks and foreign banks. The next stage for the Indian banking has been setup with the proposed relaxation in the norms for Foreign Direct Investment, where all Foreign Investors in banks may be given voting rights which could exceed the present cap of 10%, at present it has gone up to 74% with some restrictions. The new policy shook the Banking sector in India completely. Bankers, till this time, were used to the 4-6-4 method (Borrow at 4%; Lend at 6%; Go home at 4) of functioning. The new wave ushered in a modern outlook and tech-savvy methods of working for traditional banks. All this led to the retail boom in India. People not just demanded more from their banks but also received more. Currently (2008), banking in India is generally fairly mature in terms of supply, product range and reach-even though reach in rural India still remains a challenge for the private sector and foreign banks. In terms of quality of assets and capital adequacy, Indian banks are considered to have clean, strong and transparent balance sheets relative to other banks in comparable economies in its region. The Reserve Bank of India is an autonomous body, with minimal pressure from the government. The stated policy of the Bank on the Indian Rupee is to manage volatility but without any fixed exchange rate-and this has mostly been true. With the growth in the Indian economy expected to be strong for quite some timeespecially in its services sector-the demand for banking services, especially retail banking, mortgages and investment services are expected to be strong. One may also expect M&As, takeovers, and asset sales. In March 2006, the Reserve Bank of India allowed Warburg Pincus to increase its stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (a private sector bank) to 10%. This is the first time an investor has been allowed to hold more than 5% in a private sector bank since the RBI announced norms in 2005 that any stake exceeding 5% in the private sector banks would need to be vetted by them. In recent years critics have charged that the non-government owned banks are too aggressive in their loan recovery efforts in connection with housing, vehicle and personal loans. There are press reports that the banks' loan recovery efforts have driven defaulting borrowers to suicide. The banking system in India is broadly divided in to two groups:
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1. Commercial banks 2. Cooperative banks On the basis of ownership hold commercial banks are group under three categories. These are: (1) State owned or public sector banks (PSBs) (2) Private bank under Indian ownership (3) Foreign banks There are PSBs which all account for 80% of the commercial banks .at the top of banking system is RBI. RBI is the central bank of the country entrusted with monetary stability, management of the currency.

SIZE OF GLOBAL BANKING INDUSTRY

Worldwide assets of the largest 1,000 banks grew 16.3% in 2006/2007 to reach a record $74.2 trillion. This follows a 5.4%1 increase in the previous year. EU banks held the largest share, 53%, up from 43% a decade earlier. The growth in Europes share was mostly at the expense of Japanese banks, whose share more than halved during this period from 21% to 10%. The share of US banks remained relatively stable at around 14%. Most of the remainder was from other Asian and European countries. The United States has the most banks in the world in terms of institutions (7,540 at the end of 2005) and possibly branches (75,000). This is an indicator of the geography and regulatory structure of the USA, resulting in a large number of small to medium-sized institutions in its banking system. As of Nov 2009, China's top 4 banks have in excess of 67,000 branches with an additional 140 smaller banks with an undetermined number of branches. Japan had 129 banks and 12,000 branches.

The structure of the Indian banking sectors characterized by five categories of commercial banks. There are two types of public bankseight state banks (SBI and
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seven associates) and 19nationalized banks. The classification of private banks into "old private" and "new private" is based on the timing of market entry. Following the RBI guidelines of 1993 to promote competition in the banking sector, nine new private banks entered the market in 1994 and 1995. A number of foreign banks were allowed entry into the Indian banking system between 1991 and 1998, and consequently, the total number of foreign banks increased from 24 in 1991/92 to 42 in 2000-2001.

The percentage shares of the five categories of banks in 2008-09 as follows:

Table 1. Market Share by Bank Category in 2008/09

Bank Category

Market Share (In percent)

State Nationalized Old private New private Foreign

10 25 09 18 38

Table 1.1 showing market share by bank in2008-09(source: www.rbi.com) Currently, following are the few public sector banks in India: i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. ix. State bank of India State bank of Patiala Oriental bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Bank of India Punjab and Sind bank Syndicate bank Vijaya bank Allahabad bank
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x. xi. xii. xiii. xiv. xv. xvi. xvii. xviii. xix.

Andhra bank Union bank of India Corporation bank UCO bank Dena bank Indian overseas bank State bank of Bikaner and Jaipur State bank of Travancore United bank of India Canara bank etc.

The govt. of India relaxing the condition for opening of private sector bank in the year 1994, as a part of their liberalization program me.Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited (HDFC) was amongst the first to receive on <in principle< approval from the Reserve bank of India to set up the bank in private sector as on 31st of March 2005, there are 30 private sector banks operating in the country. Private Banks have been playing crucial role in enhancing customer oriented products with no choice left with the public sectors banks except to innovate and compete in the process. The major private sector banks are: 1. ICICI bank 2. Indusind bank 3. Kotak Mahindra bank 4. Axis bank 5. HDFC bank 6. Yes bank 7. Federal bank 8. ING karure vysya bank ETC.

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CHAPTER -II REVIEW OF LITERATURE

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REVIEW OF LITERATURE:
Many studies has been made by the various researcher many of them delved into various aspects of Banking and the practices followed by the commercial banks to check performance of banks. These studies are given as follows:

(1)Demirgic-Kunt ,Asli, and Hary Huizinga (1998) , In international cross-section

study of banking performance suggests that any attempt to explain cross banking NPA variation would do better to capture bank efficiency through operating profits or return to assets which are less ambiguous in terms of direction then the net interest margin.

(2)Shirai (2002), in his studies concludes that ". Even though foreign banks and private
sector banks generally perform better than public sector banks in terms of profitability, earnings efficiency and cost efficiency in the initial stage [of reforms], such differences have diminished as public sector banks have improved profitability and cost Efficiency

(3)B.Satish Kumar (2008), in his article on an evaluation of the financial performance

of Indian private sector banks wrote Private sector banks play an important role in development of Indian economy. After liberalization the banking industry underwent major changes. The economic reforms totally have changed the banking sector. RBI permitted new banks to be started in the private sector as per the recommendation of Narashiman committee. The Indian banking industry was dominated by public sector banks. But now the situations have changed new generation banks with used of technology and professional management has gained a reasonable position in the banking industry.

(4)Vradi, Vijay, Mauluri, Nagarjuna (2006), in his study on Measurement of

efficiency of bank in India concluded that in modern world performance of banking is more important to stable the economy .in order to see the efficiency of Indian banks we have see the fore indicators i.e. profitability, productivity, assets, quality and financial
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management for all banks includes public sector, private sector banks in India for the period2000 and 1999 to 2002-2003. For measuring efficiency of banks we have adopted development envelopment analysis and found that public sectors banks are more efficient then other banks in India

(5) Subash C.Ray (2000), Indias public sector banks (PSBs) are compared
unfavorably with their private sector counterparts, domestic and foreign. This comparison rests, for the most part, on financial measures of performance, and such a comparison provides much of the rationale for privatization of PSBs. In this paper, we attempt a comparison between PSBs and their private sector counterparts based on measures of efficiency and productivity that use quantities of outputs and inputs. Efficiency measures a firms performance relative to a benchmark at a given point in time; productivity measures a firms performance over time. Both measures are relevant in attempting a comparison between the private and public sectors. We employ three measures: Torques total factor productivity growth, Malmquist efficiency and revenue maximization efficiency. We attempt these comparisons over the period 1992-2000, comparing PSBs with both domestic private and foreign banks. Out of a total of six comparisons we have made, there are no differences in three cases, PSBs do better in two, and foreign banks in one. To put it differently, PSBs are seen to be at a disadvantage in only one out of six comparisons. It is difficult, therefore, to sustain the proposition that efficiency and productivity have been lower in public sector banks relative to their peers in the private sector.

(6) Galagedera, Don U A, Edirisuriya, Piyadasa (1995-2002), in his article on

Performance of Indian Commercial Banks investigates the efficiency and productivity in a sample of Indian commercial banks over the period 1995-2002. We measure efficiency using the data envelopment analysis technique and productivity change using Malmquist productivity index. The results reveal that there has been no significant growth in productivity during the sample period. When analyzed separately, the public sector banks
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reveal a modest growth in productivity that appears to have been brought about by technological change. The private sector banks indicate no growth. In general, smaller banks are less efficient and highly efficient banks have a high equity to assets and high return to average equity ratios.

(7) Ram Pratap Sinha (2008), in his study abstract that after the onset of banking
sector reform in India, the Reserve Bank of India initiated a system of Prompt Corrective Action with various trigger points and mandatory and discretionary responses by the supervising authority on a real time basis. The PCA framework relies on three major indicators of banking sector performance. Net Non- Performing Asset (NPA), CapitalTo-Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio and Return on Assets. The present paper seeks to combine the ratio approach adopted by the Reserve Bank of India with the Assurance Region based measure of technical efficiency to find out a composite Data Envelopment Analysis based efficiency indicator of 28 observed commercial banks for 2002-03 to 2004-05. The results show that the observed private sector commercial banks have higher mean technical efficiency score compared to those of the public sector commercial banks. Out of the 28 observed commercial banks considered for the study, six were found to be efficient. A study of the technical efficiency scores across ownership groups reveal that the observed private sector banks have higher mean technical efficiency scores compared to their public sector counterparts. Finally, most of the observed commercial banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale for the period under observation.

(8) Brijesh K. Saho, Anandeep Singh (2007), this paper attempts to examine, the
performance trends of the Indian commercial banks for the period: 1997-98 - 2004-05. Our broad empirical findings are indicative in many ways. First, the increasing average annual trends in technical efficiency for all ownership groups indicate an affirmative gesture about the effect of the reform process on the performance of the Indian banking sector. Second, the higher cost efficiency accrual of private banks over nationalized

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banks indicate that nationalized banks, though old, do not reflect their learning experience in their cost minimizing behavior due to X-inefficiency factors arising from government ownership. This finding also highlights the possible stronger disciplining role played by the capital market indicating a strong link between market for corporate control and efficiency of private enterprise assumed by property right hypothesis. And, finally, concerning the scale elasticity behavior, the technology and market-based results differ significantly supporting the empirical distinction between returns to scale and economies of scale, often used interchangeably in the literature.

(9) Roma Mitra, Shankar Ravi (2008), A stable and efficient banking sector is an
essential precondition to increase the economic level of a country. This paper tries to model and evaluate the efficiency of 50 Indian banks. The Inefficiency can be analyzed and quantified for every evaluated unit. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare efficiency of the banking sector in India. The analysis is supposed to verify or reject the hypothesis whether the banking sector fulfils its intermediation function sufficiently to compete with the global players. The results are insightful to the financial policy planner as it identifies priority areas for different banks, which can improve the performance. This paper evaluates the performance of Banking Sectors in India.

(10) Petya Koeva( July 2003) , in his study on The Performance of Indian Banks
During Financial Liberalization states that new empirical evidence on the impact of financial liberalization on the performance of Indian commercial banks. The analysis focuses on examining the behavior and determinants of bank intermediation costs and profitability during the liberalization period. The empirical results suggest that ownership type has a significant effect on some performance indicators and that the observed increase in competition during financial liberalization has been associated with lower intermediation costs and profitability of the Indian banks.

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CHAPTER III NEED OF THE STUDY

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NEED OF THE STUDY

Significance of performance evaluation in an organization, for sustainable growth and development, has been recognized since long. This calls for a system that first measures and evaluates the performance, and then brings out the strengths and weaknesses of the organization for the purpose of further improvement. Efficient performance evaluation system encompasses all aspects of an organization. With the advances in computational tools, performance evaluation systems have evolved over a period of time from single-aspect systems to more comprehensive systems covering all aspects of an organization. Such an improvement was inevitable as the traditional performance measurement systems, with an overwhelming reliance on financial aspects in isolation were ill suited to meet demands of modern business world characterized by value creation stemming from intangible assets such a s employee know-how, strong customer relationship and cultures capable of innovation and change. The notion was simple, but the ramification profound. Moreover, almost every industry, that envisages importance of evaluation, can adopt many methods to evaluate the performance. It prove to be better for performance measurement, evaluation and strategic planning for future growth and development of the Indian banks in the light of changing requirements of this sector.

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CHAPTER -IV

DESIGN OF THE STUDY

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RESEARCH PROBLEM:
Performance evaluation of private and public sector banks in Bathinda region- a study during recession period.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES:
y To study the NPA during recession period. y To study the loan disbursed during recession period. y To study the trend in saving during recession period.

SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH:

The study is limited to private and public sector banks of Bathinda region.

RESEARCH PLAN:
It involves decision on data sources, research approaches, research instrument, sampling plan and contact method.

DATA SOURCES: Secondary data used to solve the research problem. This data
collected through survey of different private and public sectors banks in Bathinda region. Secondary data collected through the available websites related to banks, RBI, etc. and internal records of Banks of Bathinda region.

RESEARCH INSTRUMENT: Quantitative measures used for this problem for

collecting primary data.

SAMPLING PLAN: Following is the design for the sampling plan which includes
sampling unit, sampling size, and sampling procedure.

SAMPLING UNIT: All the private and public sector Banks of Bathinda region. SAMPLING SIZE: Private Banks-05
Public Banks -09 TOTAL -14

SAMPLING PROCEDURE: Purposive Sampling Technique

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CONTACT METHOD: Personal contact with various Banks branches situated in

Bathinda region for collecting data.

PLAN OF ANALYSIS:
The data is related to the trend of the banks over the five consecutive years i.e. from 2004 to 2009. So we applied time series analysis.

Test used for analysis: student t- test

The procedure of test is as follows: y=ab+ Log y = log a+ log b Taking b = (1+r)

r = (b-1) 100 Where y= study variable, area, production yield or resource variable a= constant b = regression coefficient t= time (t=1 , , , , n)

r= compound growth rate (CGR) in percentage To test the significance of compound growth rate t- test applied was: t* = r/S.E.(r) t* = calculated t-ratio distributed with (n-20 ) degree of freedom. r= compound growth rate
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S.E.(r)= standard error of compound growth rate . S. E. was calculated by fitting the formula. S.E.(r) =

There are fifty six variables in the test. These are fifty six (56) variables in the test .all are independent to each other as per assumption of the test i.e. variables include are 28 in NPA s ( gross, net) ,14 for loan disbursed, 14 for the trend in saving. All variable including private and public sector banks.

LIMITATION OF THE STUDY:

(1) Time for the study is less so one cannot access the whole performance in the limited

period of time. Also the data is available only for till 2009 so it not possible to access the performance of the banks. (2) The Data available is in the form of banks internal records that is their balance sheet, sale figures etc it may be misinterpreted or may not be according to the requirement. (3) The area of study is limited to only public and private banks of Bathinda Region as number is limited to the area

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CHAPTER -V DATA ANALYSIS

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TABLE 5.1- NPA OF PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS. (In Percentage)

S.NO 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. NAME OF BANKS State Bank of India State Bank of Patiala Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Bank of India Oriental Bank of commerce Punjab National Bank Punjab and sind Bank IDBI Bank ltd. 2004-05 GROSS 2.7 2.1 3.5 2.1 3.3 4.6 NET 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.6 2005-06 GROSS 1.9 1.3 2.1 1.3 2.2 3.6 NET 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.3 2006-07 GROSS 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 NET 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 2007-08 GROSS 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 NET 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 2008-09 GROSS 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 NET 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4

7.

3.0

0.1

2.2

0.1

2.1

0.4

1.7

0.4

1.1

0.1

8. 9.

7.6 1.5

3.2 1.0

4.9 1.3

1.2 0.6

1.3 1.2

0.4 0.7

0.4 1.2

0.2 0.8

0.4 0.8

0.2 0.6

TABLE 5.2 - NPA OF PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS.

S.NO . 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. NAME OF BANKS ICICI HDFC Indusind Axis Kotak Mahindra 2004-05 GROSS NET 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 2005-06 GROSS NET 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 2006-07 GROSS NET 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.1

(In Percentage)
2007-08 GROSS NET 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 1.6 1.0 2008-09 GROSS NET 2.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.2 2.5 1.4

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TABLE 5.3- LOAN DISBURSED BY PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS ( in RS.)

S.NO. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. NAME OF THE BANKS State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and sind Bank Bank of India State Bank of Patiala IDBI Bank ltd. 2004-05 15,50,000 14,00,000 10,00,000 13,00,000 10,50,000 12,00,000 14,50,000 13,40,000 13,00,000 2005-06 17,00,500 15,20,000 11,00,000 10,00,000 11,50,000 10,50,000 14,00,000 14,00,000 16,00,000 2006-07 19,00,000 29,00,000 15,50,000 11,00,000 11,00,000 18,50,000 17,00,000 18,00,000 28,00,000 2007-08 20,12,000 30,78,600 18,48,000 10, 15,000 17,29,200 24,30,200 23,30,000 23,00,000 34,00,000 2008-09 26,45,600 24,45,900 21,80,000 12,00,000 14,56,500 25,85,000 25,00,000 25,00,000 35,00,000

TABLE 5.4 LOAN DISBURSED BY PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS DURING RECESSION. (Rs. In lakhs)
S.NO NAME OF THE BANKS ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2007-09

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

8,00,000 10,00,000 11,00,000 13,50,000 2,00,000

10,00,000 13,00,000 12,00,000 1400,000 3,00,000

13,00,000 15,50,000 13,00,000 12,40,000 4,00,000

14,84,300 16,08,000 17,90,000 17,00,000 4,45,500

25,49,900 15,05,000 15,00,000 18,98,000 1,91,300

Page 33

TABLE 5.4- TRENDS IN SAVING IN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS . (Total Accounts opened in Numbers)
S.NO. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. NAME OF BANKS State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and Sind Bank Bank of India State Bank of Patiala IDBI 2005-06 1200 1332 1000 1100 1170 978 1200 1300 1400 2006-07 1310 1500 1300 1230 1200 1760 1200 1356 1600 2007-08 1872 1980 1200 1398 1230 2400 2326 1908 1924 2008-09 2536 2630 2050 2000 1300 3457 2134 2452 3567

TABLE 5.6 TRENDS IN SAVING IN PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS. (Total Accounts Opened in Numbers)
S.NO 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. NAME OF THE BANKS ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank 2004-05 1200 800 530 900 300 2005-06 900 940 600 950 700 2006-07 1000 1020 900 1200 600 2007-08 1300 1100 1237 2400 1200 2008-09 1584 1250 1200 2529 1300

Page 34

Table 5.7. Showing the variables used in test and also their respective numbers:

Variable name
State bank of India State bank of Patiala Bank of Baroda Canara bank Bank of India Oriental bank of commerce Punjab national bank Punjab and sind bank IDBI bank ltd. ICICI HDFC Indusind Axis Kotak Mahindra State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and Sind Bank Bank of India

Specification
Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Gross NPA Net NPA Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed

Variable number (y)

Var. (Y) 1 Var. (Y) 2 Var. (Y) 3 Var. (Y) 4 Var. (Y) 5 Var. (Y) 6 Var. (Y) 7 Var. (Y) 8 Var. (Y) 9 Var. (Y) 10 Var. (Y) 11 Var. (Y) 12 Var. (Y) 13 Var. (Y) 14 Var. (Y) 15 Var. (Y) 16 Var. (Y) 17 Var. (Y) 18 Var. (Y) 19 Var. (Y) 20 Var. (Y) 21 Var. (Y) 22 Var. (Y) 23 Var. (Y) 24 Var. (Y) 25 Var. (Y) 26 Var. (Y) 27 Var. (Y) 28 Var. (Y) 29 Var. (Y) 30 Var. (Y) 31 Var. (Y) 32 Var. (Y) 33 Var. (Y) 34 Var. (Y) 35
Page 35

State Bank of Patiala IDBI ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of commerce Bank of Baroda Canara Bank Punjab and Sind Bank Bank of India State Bank of Patiala IDBI ICICI HDFC Indusind Bank Axis Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank

Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Loan disbursed Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened Saving Account opened

Var. (Y) 36 Var. (Y) 37 Var. (Y) 38 Var. (Y) 39 Var. (Y) 40 Var. (Y) 41 Var. (Y) 42 Var. (Y) 43 Var. (Y) 44 Var. (Y) 45 Var. (Y) 46 Var. (Y) 47 Var. (Y) 48 Var. (Y) 49 Var. (Y) 50 Var. (Y) 51 Var. (Y) 52 Var. (Y) 53 Var. (Y) 54 Var. (Y) 55 Var. (Y) 56

Page 36

Table 5. 8- After applying the test for data we get following values:
Variable Var. (Y) 1 Var. (Y) 2 Var. (Y) 3 Var. (Y) 4 Var. (Y) 5 Var. (Y) 6 Var. (Y) 7 Var. (Y) 8 Var. (Y) 9 Var. (Y) 10 Var. (Y) 11 Var. (Y) 12 Var. (Y) 13 Var. (Y) 14 Var. (Y) 15 Var. (Y) 16 Var. (Y) 17 Var. (Y) 18 Var. (Y) 19 Var. (Y) 20 Var. (Y) 21 Var. (Y) 22 Var. (Y) 23 Var. (Y) 24 Var. (Y) 25 Var. (Y) 26 Var. (Y) 27 Var. (Y) 28 Var. (Y) 29 Var. (Y) 30 Var. (Y) 31 Var. (Y) 32 Var. (Y) 33 Var. (Y) 34 Var. (Y) 35 Var. (Y) 36 Var. (Y) 37 Var. (Y) 38 Mean 1.960 1.020 1.240 .480 1.800 .420 1.200 .700 1.840 1.000 2.500 .440 2.020 .220 2.920 1.040 1.200 .740 1.640 .800 .820 .200 1.500 1.180 .660 .360 1.260 .760 1961.400 2268.600 1535.600 1123.000 1297.000 1823.000 1876.000 1868.000 2520.000 14267.000 CGR -10.4216 -3.5807** -20.5298 -9.8240 -30.2215 -26.0392 -18.9652 -9.9659 -25.1016 -13.4607 -34.3432 -1.1709** -20.2635 14.8698 -56.8048 -51.9868 -12.5170 -7.0768 16.3990 14.8698 4.0950* 24.5731 -14.5247 -16.4279 -9.9258 -25.1016 65.7227 85.7888 13.1714 19.9700 23.0898 -1.4415* 11.1998 26.7937 17.3376 19.0493 31.4501 31.1686 t- value -3.326 -1.177 -6.877 -5.456 -18.999 -20.925 -2.531 -1.563 -7.224 -4.288 -20.345 -.093 -7.137 .488 -10.163 -8.680 -3.934 -1.148 1.207 .965 .552 2.832 -2.352 -2.200 -2.494 -5.879 3.974 1.909 5.731 2.001 9.630 -.367 2.118 3.657 4.574 7.390 4.751 6.578
Page 37

Var. (Y) 39 Var. (Y) 40 Var. (Y) 41 Var. (Y) 42 Var. (Y) 43 Var. (Y) 44 Var. (Y) 45 Var. (Y) 46 Var. (Y) 47 Var. (Y) 48 Var. (Y) 49 Var. (Y) 50 Var. (Y) 51 Var. (Y) 52 Var. (Y) 53 Var. (Y) 54 Var. (Y) 55 Var. (Y) 56

13926.000 1378.000 1517.600 3073.600 1603.600 1730.800 1346.000 1405.600 1200.000 1919.000 1572.000 1643.200 1972.200 1196.800 1022.000 893.400 1595.800 820.000

10.8515 10.7406 9.1502 3.1121** 23.5560 21.4805 13.7346 11.6423 3.9159** 40.1933 24.3317 19.8758 25.0041 9.6692 11.0684 26.5910 34.8932 41.5053

2.516 2.541 2.130 .215 5.187 6.549 1.860 1.962 9.600 5.949 3.297 4.710 3.120 1.444 11.842 5.092 4.284 3.546

Page 38

Table 5.9- Showing linear trend function.

Variable(Y) Var. (Y) 1 Var. (Y) 2 Var. (Y) 3 Var. (Y) 4 Var. (Y) 5 Var. (Y) 6 Var. (Y) 7 Var. (Y) 8 Var. (Y) 9 Var. (Y) 10 Var. (Y) 11 Var. (Y) 12 Var. (Y) 13 Var. (Y) 14 Var. (Y) 15 Var. (Y) 16 Var. (Y) 17 Var. (Y) 18 Var. (Y) 19 Var. (Y) 20 Var. (Y) 21 Var. (Y) 22 Var. (Y) 23 Var. (Y) 24 Var. (Y) 25 Var. (Y) 26 Var. (Y) 27 Var. (Y) 28 Var. (Y) 29 Var. (Y) 30 Var. (Y) 31 Var. (Y) 32 Var. (Y) 33 Var. (Y) 34 Var. (Y) 35 Var. (Y) 36

Trend -.2300* -.0400* -.3000* -.0500* -.6400* -.1200* -.2800* -.0800* -.5500* -.1400* -.9600* -.0100* -.4300* .0300* -1.8900* -.7000* -.1500* -.0600* .2600* .1100* .0400* .0400* -.2200* -.1800* -.0700* -.1000* .5400* .3300* 250.2000 364.8000 310.8000 -18.5000 139.1000 415.0000 303.0000 322.0000

T -2.796 -1.225 -3.962 -5.000 -5.146 -10.392 -2.378 -1.589 -4.506 -3.656 -8.075 -.182 -7.485 .522 -4.444 -3.020 -4.392 -1.192 1.522 1.184 .655 3.464 -2.144 -2.083 -2.528 -5.000 6.088 3.667 4.694 1.933* 11.058 -.410* 2.037* 4.922 4.864 7.761
Page 39

Var. (Y) 37 Var. (Y) 38 Var. (Y) 39 Var. (Y) 40 Var. (Y) 41 Var. (Y) 42 Var. (Y) 43 Var. (Y) 44 Var. (Y) 45 Var. (Y) 46 Var. (Y) 47 Var. (Y) 48 Var. (Y) 49 Var. (Y) 50 Var. (Y) 51 Var. (Y) 52 Var. (Y) 53 Var. (Y) 54 Var. (Y) 55 Var. (Y) 56

620.0000 3983.8000 1318.0000 139.0000 139.6000 128.1000 354.4000 348.4000 194.0000 169.8000 46.0000 633.6000 339.4000 311.2000 491.8000 116.8000 106.0000 197.7000 470.8000 250.0000

6.159 4.210** 2.675* 2.333* 2.393* .310* 4.475** 5.131 1.973* 2.077* 9.959 5.972 3.205 4.365** 2.756* 1.646** 13.999 5.455 4.304* 4.753

NOTE: ** and* indicate 1% and 5%then given values are significant otherwise non-significant. If the calculated value turns out to be greater than table value be reject null hypothesis and accept alternative. If the calculated value turns out to be lesser than table value be reject the alternative value. Null hypothesis is accepted when value turn out to be zero.

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INTERPRETATION:
1) The variable var.(1) to var.(18) for the NPA s of public sector banks compound growth rate for these banks are significant as the number is significant at the 1% it mean that the trend of declining the NPA s during the period of 2004 -2009.the trend value for var. (15 ) i.e. for Punjab and sind bank . Shows that there is significant growth in the gross NPA during the period. This shows that the only Punjab and sind bank provide the quality of loan to the bank. Whereas Punjab national bank have the less burden for loan recovery. As the financial crises due to recession showed its effect in October 2008 on financial sector affected by this crises but recession does not invades in to the public sector banks as per the previous trend NPA, s of the public sector banks of Bathinda region it remains

declined. It remains at the position of 1.2% as per the previous year data. In case of private sectors banks of Bathinda all the var.19 to 28 are significant at 1% which shows that gross and net NPA s of private sectors banks as per trend increasing from the period of the2004 to 2009. Kotak Mahindra bank and ICICI bank provide the maximum quality loan to the public. As the gross NPA s of these two banks high the net NPA s of these two banks also high. As the recession invades the financial industry in 2008 but the value shows that the recession has no effect on the NPA s of these banks. 2) The loan disbursed by the public sector banks and private sector banks in the period from the 2004- 2009 which is indicated by the var.(29) to var. (37) and var.(38) to var.(42) respectively. The trend value from the table shows that all the values are significant except for variable (29). Var.(34), var.(35), var.(36) var.(37) are non significant as the values are greater than the given table values. Then we accept the alternative hypothesis and reject the null hypothesis. This indicates that during the period the loan disbursement by the banks increased in public sector banks whereas in case of private sectors banks the values are significant with

Page 41

respect to the table values we accept the alternative hypothesis. There is trend of loan disbursement. The whole analysis of loan disbursement shows that the public and private sectors banks of Bathinda region have not much impact of recession as the number of loan disbursed increased in case of the public sector banks and

private sector banks. 3) The trend in saving is shown by variable (43) to var. (51) for public banks and var. (52) to var. (56) for private sector . The trend values for the all banks are significant except for variable (44) i.e. for Punjab national bank in public sector and variable 53 i.e. for HDFC bank in private banks. The value for these two banks are non significant that is greater than the table value. For this case we accept alternative hypothesis. As values for these two banks are high it shows that the account opened in these banks increased as in previous years also. The values is significant for the all other banks it also shows that the there is increase in the

account. But as far as recession is concerned it also shows that there is not much impact on the savings trend it also shows increase in the saving trend.

Page 42

CHAPTER VI CONCLUSION

Page 43

An attempt is made in this study to present a comprehensive picture of performance evaluation of public and private sector banks in Bathinda region a study during recession period touching upon various quantitative and qualitative trends in the NPAs, loan disbursed. And saving trend. Undoubtedly India was one of the few countries where NPA levels are very high as there was an increase in the percentage of gross advances eroding their ROA by major basic points, after netting the provision. The net NPAs constitute a major percentage of the tangible net worth of the public sector banks, and private sector banks which represent a huge chunk of the banking system business. Notwithstanding a lower proportion of NPAs. Private banks NPAs has shown a sudden spurt in the recent years making them vulnerable. But the recession have no impact on the NPA,s of these banks in Bathinda region. On the other hand loan disbursed by banks also increased during this period as the banks provides the quality loans to the customers. So there is negligible impact of recession . In case of saving trend there is increase in saving trend of Bathinda region as number of accounts opened during recession increased which shows no impact. The student t- test of data clearly identifies that all the banks in Bathinda region dont suffer from recession. Although It shows the better performance of Public sector banks and private sector banks . So ,it can be said that the recession has overall impact on the Indian level it has less impact or negligible impact in Bathindas banking sector.

Page 44

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Page 45

BOOKS
y Vijyaragavan Iyengar, Introduction to Indian Banking System, Excel Books New Delhi,1ST Edition2007 pp 201-225 y Srivastava R.M., Divya Nigam, Management Of Indian Financial Institutions ,Himalayan Publishing House, Mumbai, 8th Edition, p20 y Agarwal O.P., Modern Banking of India, Himalaya Publishing House ,Mumbai, 1st Edition 2008 p60 y Dr. Vibha Jain: Non-Performing Assets in commercial Banks: Regal Publication, New Delhi,1st Edition 2007p p78-79 y
y

Kothari. C .R .,Research Methodology , Vikas publishers ,New Delhi, 4th edition. Datt, Ruddar & Sundharam, K.P.M. "50". Indian Economy. pp. 847 850.

WEBSITES
y www.indianmba.com/npa of commercial banks y www.coolavenue.com/conference y www.rbi.com/perfomance and trend in banking.htm y www.scribd.com/performance of banking sector.htm y www.icraindia.com/services/rating/structure.htm y www.allbankingsolution.com/challengesbeforeindianbankingsector.htm

REFERENCES
y Petya Koeva , IMF working paper ,performance of the Indian banks during liberalization period , pp 5-6 y y Sagar R. Dave ,performance evaluation in Indian banking, Reddy, Y.V Credit Policy, Systems and Culture, RBI Bulletin, March (2004)

Page 46

ANNEXURE

Page 47

Table values use: 2.77 At 5% 4.60 At 1% Results of HSc10:

cgr

cgr VARIABLE Y( 1) Y( 2) Y( 3) Y( 4) Y( 5) Y( 6) Y( 7) Y( 8) Y( 9) Y(10) Y(11) Y(12) Y(13) Y(14) Y(15) Y(16) Y(17) Y(18) Y(19) Y(20) Y(21) Y(22) Y(23) Y(24) Y(25) Y(26) Y(27) Y(28) Y(29) Y(30) Y(31) Y(32) Y(33) Y(34) Y(35) Y(36) Y(37) Y(38) Y(39) Y(40) Y(41) Y(42) Y(43) Y(44) Y(45) Y(46) Y(47) Y(48) Y(49) Y(50) Y(51) Y(52) Y(53) Y(54) MEAN 1.960 1.020 1.240 .480 1.800 .420 1.200 .700 1.840 1.000 2.500 .440 2.020 .220 2.920 1.040 1.200 .740 1.640 .800 .820 .200 1.500 1.180 .660 .360 1.260 .760 1961.400 2268.600 1535.600 1123.000 1297.000 1823.000 1876.000 1868.000 2520.000 14267.800 13926.000 1378.000 1517.600 3073.600 1603.600 1730.800 1346.000 1405.600 1200.000 1919.000 1572.000 1643.200 1972.200 1196.800 1022.000 893.400 S.D. .383 .098 .463 .075 .955 .172 .490 .167 .833 .219 1.389 .136 .624 .147 2.869 1.141 .228 .150 .557 .276 .160 .063 .400 .331 .120 .150 .794 .516 C.V. 19.52 9.61 37.34 15.59 53.05 40.96 40.82 23.90 45.29 21.91 55.54 30.83 30.90 66.80 98.24 109.73 19.00 20.23 33.97 34.46 19.51 31.62 26.67 28.06 18.18 41.57 63.01 67.91 19.23 30.54 28.97 10.12 19.91 34.13 24.25 24.98 36.14 42.70 15.94 17.77 16.06 33.41 33.51 30.05 27.12 22.24 5.50 48.62 34.71 28.82 41.65 20.03 14.78 32.83

EXPONENTIAL FORM PARAMETER ESTIMATE S.E. t-VALUE

VAR.Y( 1) R-SQ.= .7674 F= 9.90 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .9863 -.1101 -10.4216 .1160 .0350 3.1338 8.501 -3.146 -3.326

VAR.Y( 2) R-SQ.= .3081 F= 1.34 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .1248 -.0365 -3.5807 .1046 .0315 3.0420 1.193 -1.156 -1.177

VAR.Y( 3) R-SQ.= .9258 F= 37.42 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .8436 -.2298 -20.5298 .1246 .0376 2.9853 6.771 -6.117 -6.877

VAR.Y( 4) R-SQ.= .8994 F= 26.82 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.4357 -.1034 -9.8240 .0662 .0200 1.8006 -6.579 -5.179 -5.456

VAR.Y( 5) R-SQ.= .9881 F= 249.19 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 1.5340 -.3598 -30.2215 .0756 .0228 1.5907 20.290 -15.786 -18.999

VAR.Y( 6) R-SQ.= .9908 F= 321.39 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.0510 -.3016 -26.0392 .0558 .0168 1.2444 -.914 -17.927 -20.925

VAR.Y( 7) R-SQ.= .6328 F= 5.17 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .7393 -.2103 -18.9652 .3067 .0925 7.4943 2.410 -2.274 -2.531

377.152 692.788 444.897 113.649 258.198 622.170 454.867 466.579 910.824 6092.192 2220.429 244.818 243.703 1026.792 537.423 520.024 365.053 312.649 66.030 932.966 545.584 473.492 821.499 239.752 151.050 293.343

VAR.Y( 8) R-SQ.= .4229 F= 2.20 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.0685 -.1050 -9.9659 .2348 .0708 6.3747 -.292 -1.483 -1.563

VAR.Y( 9) R-SQ.= .9283 F= 38.82 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 1.3828 -.2890 -25.1016 .1539 .0464 3.4746 8.987 -6.230 -7.224

VAR.Y(10) R-SQ.= .8411 F= 15.88 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .4092 -.1446 -13.4607 .1203 .0363 3.1391 3.401 -3.986 -4.288

VAR.Y(11) R-SQ.= .9889 F= 267.80 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 2.0084 -.4207 -34.3432 .0853 .0257 1.6880 23.554 -16.365 -20.345

VAR.Y(12) R-SQ.= .0029 F= .00 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.8338 -.0118 -1.1709 .4203 .1267 12.5249 -1.984 -.093 -.093

VAR.Y(13) R-SQ.= .9309 F= 40.44 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 1.3303 -.2264 -20.2635 .1181 .0356 2.8392 11.265 -6.360 -7.137

VAR.Y(14) R-SQ.= .0833 F= .27 Log(A) -2.1640 .8804 -2.458

Page 48

Y(55) Y(56)

1595.800 820.000

717.698 376.298

44.97 45.89

Log(b) C.G.R.

.1386 14.8698

.2655 30.4928

.522 .488

VAR.Y(15) R-SQ.= .9335 F= 42.09 Log(A) LINEAR TREND FUNCTION VAR.Y( 1) R-SQ.= .7227 F= 7.82 a b 2.6500 -.2300 .2728 .0823 9.713 -2.796 Log(b) C.G.R. 2.9278 -.8394 -56.8048 .4292 .1294 5.5892 6.822 -6.487 -10.163

VAR.Y(16) R-SQ.= .9202 F= 34.60 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 1.6431 -.7337 -51.9868 .4137 .1247 5.9891 3.972 -5.882 -8.680

VAR.Y( 2) R-SQ.= .3333 F= 1.50 a b 1.1400 -.0400 .1083 .0327 10.524 -1.225

VAR.Y(17) R-SQ.= .8184 F= 13.52 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .5630 -.1337 -12.5170 .1206 .0364 3.1818 4.668 -3.677 -3.934

VAR.Y( 3) R-SQ.= .8396 F= 15.70 a b 2.1400 -.3000 .2511 .0757 8.521 -3.962

VAR.Y( 4) R-SQ.= .8929 F= 25.00 a b .6300 -.0500 .0332 .0100 18.995 -5.000

VAR.Y(18) R-SQ.= .2897 F= 1.22 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.1001 -.0734 -7.0768 .2201 .0664 6.1658 -.455 -1.106 -1.148

VAR.Y( 5) R-SQ.= .8982 F= 26.48 a b 3.7200 -.6400 .4125 .1244 9.019 -5.146

VAR.Y(19) R-SQ.= .3606 F= 1.69 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.0224 .1519 16.3990 .3872 .1167 13.5876 -.058 1.301 1.207

VAR.Y( 6) R-SQ.= .9730 F= 108.00 a b .7800 -.1200 .0383 .0115 20.367 -10.392

VAR.Y(20) R-SQ.= .2624 F= 1.07 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.7070 .1386 14.8698 .4450 .1342 15.4127 -1.589 1.033 .965

VAR.Y( 7) R-SQ.= .6533 F= 5.65 a b 2.0400 -.2800 .3906 .1178 5.223 -2.378

VAR.Y( 8) R-SQ.= .4571 F= 2.53 a b .9400 -.0800 .1669 .0503 5.631 -1.589

VAR.Y(21) R-SQ.= .0956 F= .32 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.3364 .0401 4.0950 .2364 .0713 7.4197 -1.423 .563 .552

VAR.Y( 9) R-SQ.= .8713 F= 20.30 a b 3.4900 -.5500 .4048 .1221 8.621 -4.506

VAR.Y(22) R-SQ.= .7684 F= 9.95 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -2.3261 .2197 24.5731 .2310 .0696 8.6762 -10.070 3.155 2.832

VAR.Y(10) R-SQ.= .8167 F= 13.36 a b 1.4200 -.1400 .1270 .0383 11.180 -3.656

VAR.Y(23) R-SQ.= .6113 F= 4.72 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .8378 -.1569 -14.5247 .2396 .0722 6.1754 3.497 -2.172 -2.352

VAR.Y(11) R-SQ.= .9560 F= 65.21 a b 5.3800 -.9600 .3943 .1189 13.645 -8.075

VAR.Y(12) R-SQ.= .0109 F= .03 a b .4700 -.0100 .1827 .0551 2.573 -.182

VAR.Y(24) R-SQ.= .5736 F= 4.04 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. .6542 -.1795 -16.4279 .2963 .0893 7.4662 2.208 -2.009 -2.200

VAR.Y(13) R-SQ.= .9492 F= 56.03 a b 3.3100 -.4300 .1905 .0574 17.373 -7.485

VAR.Y(25) R-SQ.= .6510 F= 5.60 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.1186 -.1045 -9.9258 .1466 .0442 3.9805 -.809 -2.366 -2.494

VAR.Y(14) R-SQ.= .0833 F= .27 a b .1300 .0300 .1905 .0574 .682 .522

VAR.Y(26) R-SQ.= .8955 F= 25.71 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -.2453 -.2890 -25.1016 .1891 .0570 4.2694 -1.298 -5.071 -5.879

VAR.Y(15) R-SQ.= .8681 F= 19.75 a b 8.5900 -1.8900 1.4106 .4253 6.089 -4.444

VAR.Y(16) R-SQ.= .7525 F= 9.12 a b 3.1400 -.7000 .7688 .2318 4.084 -3.020

VAR.Y(27) R-SQ.= .8952 F= 25.62 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -1.5374 .5051 65.7227 .3310 .0998 16.5377 -4.645 5.062 3.974

VAR.Y(17) R-SQ.= .8654 F= 19.29 a b 1.6500 -.1500 .1133 .0342 14.565 -4.392

VAR.Y(28) R-SQ.= .6862 F= 6.56 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. -2.5544 .6194 85.7888 .8022 .2419 44.9364 -3.184 2.561 1.909

VAR.Y(18) R-SQ.= .3214 F= 1.42 a b .9200 -.0600 .1669 .0503 5.511 -1.192

VAR.Y(29) R-SQ.= .9252 F= 37.13 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 7.1931 .1237 13.1714 .0674 .0203 2.2982 106.800 6.093 5.731

VAR.Y(19) R-SQ.= .4356 F= 2.32 a b .8600 .2600 .5667 .1709 1.517 1.522

VAR.Y(20) R-SQ.= .3184 F= 1.40 a b .4700 .1100 .3082 .0929 1.525 1.184

VAR.Y(30) R-SQ.= .6149 F= 4.79 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 7.1292 .1821 19.9700 .2759 .0832 9.9794 25.841 2.189 2.001

VAR.Y(21) R-SQ.= .1250 F= .43 a b .7000 .0400 .2026 .0611 3.454 .655

VAR.Y(31) R-SQ.= .9743 F= 113.73 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 6.6699 .2077 23.0898 .0646 .0195 2.3978 103.237 10.665 9.630

VAR.Y(22) R-SQ.= .8000 F= 12.00 a b .0800 .0400 .0383 .0115 2.089 3.464

VAR.Y(32) R-SQ.= .0423 F= .13 Log(A) Log(b) 7.0623 -.0145 .1322 .0399 53.404 -.364

VAR.Y(23) R-SQ.= .6050 F= 4.59 a 2.1600 .3404 6.346

Page 49

-.2200

.1026

-2.144

C.G.R.

-1.4415

3.9298

-.367

VAR.Y(24) R-SQ.= .5912 F= 4.34 a b 1.7200 -.1800 .2866 .0864 6.002 -2.083

VAR.Y(33) R-SQ.= .6243 F= 4.98 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 6.8307 .1062 11.1998 .1577 .0476 5.2877 43.312 2.233 2.118

VAR.Y(25) R-SQ.= .6806 F= 6.39 a b .8700 -.0700 .0918 .0277 9.474 -2.528

VAR.Y(34) R-SQ.= .8491 F= 16.88 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 6.7324 .2374 26.7937 .1917 .0578 7.3271 35.127 4.108 3.657

VAR.Y(26) R-SQ.= .8929 F= 25.00 a b .6600 -.1000 .0663 .0200 9.950 -5.000

VAR.Y(35) R-SQ.= .8909 F= 24.50 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 7.0283 .1599 17.3376 .1071 .0323 3.7902 65.604 4.950 4.574

VAR.Y(27) R-SQ.= .9251 F= 37.07 a b -.3600 .5400 .2942 .0887 -1.224 6.088

VAR.Y(28) R-SQ.= .8176 F= 13.44 a b -.2300 .3300 .2985 .0900 -.771 3.667

VAR.Y(36) R-SQ.= .9558 F= 64.86 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 6.850 4.694 6.9779 .1744 19.0493 .0718 .0217 2.5776 97.172 8.053 7.390

VAR.Y(29) R-SQ.= .8802 F= 22.04 a b 1210.8000 176.7679 250.2000 53.2975

VAR.Y(37) R-SQ.= .9076 F= 29.48 Log(A) Log(b) 6.9351 .2735 31.4501 .1670 .0504 6.6200 41.520 5.430 4.751

VAR.Y(30) R-SQ.= .5545 F= 3.73 a b 1174.2000 626.0691 364.8000 188.7669 1.876 1.933

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(38) R-SQ.= .9495 F= 56.41 Log(A) 8.6704 .2713 31.1686 .1198 .0361 4.7382 72.370 7.511 6.578

VAR.Y(31) R-SQ.= .9761 F= 122.27 a b 603.2000 310.8000 93.2217 28.1074 6.471 11.058

Log(b) C.G.R.

VAR.Y(32) R-SQ.= .0530 F= .17 a b 1178.5000 149.7478 -18.5000 45.1507 7.870 -.410

VAR.Y(39) R-SQ.= .7003 F= 7.01 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 3.885 2.037 9.2182 .1030 10.8515 .1291 .0389 4.3137 71.423 2.647 2.516

VAR.Y(33) R-SQ.= .5805 F= 4.15 a b 879.7000 226.4423 139.1000 68.2749

VAR.Y(40) R-SQ.= .7043 F= 7.15 Log(A) Log(b) 6.9072 .1020 10.7406 .1266 .0382 4.2264 54.569 2.673 2.541

VAR.Y(34) R-SQ.= .8898 F= 24.23 a b 578.0000 279.6146 415.0000 84.3070 2.067 4.922

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(41) R-SQ.= .6225 F= 4.95 Log(A) 7.0497 .0876 9.1502 .1306 .0394 4.2964 54.000 2.224 2.130

VAR.Y(35) R-SQ.= .8875 F= 23.66 a b 967.0000 206.6180 303.0000 62.2977 4.680 4.864

Log(b) C.G.R.

VAR.Y(36) R-SQ.= .9526 F= 60.23 a b 902.0000 137.6033 322.0000 41.4890 6.555 7.761

VAR.Y(42) R-SQ.= .0157 F= .05 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 1.977 6.159 7.8800 .0306 3.1121 .4654 .1403 14.4680 16.933 .218 .215

VAR.Y(37) R-SQ.= .9267 F= 37.93 a b 660.0000 333.8662 620.0000 100.6645

VAR.Y(43) R-SQ.= .9169 F= 33.12 Log(A) Log(b) 6.6942 .2115 23.5560 .1219 .0368 4.5413 54.914 5.755 5.187

VAR.Y(38) R-SQ.= .8552 F= 17.72 a b 2316.4000 3138.6904 3983.8000 946.3508 .738 4.210

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(44) R-SQ.= .9454 F= 51.94 Log(A) 6.8309 .1946 21.4805 .0895 .0270 3.2799 76.282 7.207 6.549

VAR.Y(39) R-SQ.= .7047 F= 7.16 a b 9972.0000 1633.8409 1318.0000 492.6216 6.103 2.675

Log(b) C.G.R.

VAR.Y(40) R-SQ.= .6447 F= 5.44 a b 961.0000 197.5829 139.0000 59.5735 4.864 2.333

VAR.Y(45) R-SQ.= .5672 F= 3.93 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 5.680 2.393 6.7873 .1287 13.7346 .2153 .0649 7.3825 31.528 1.983 1.860

VAR.Y(41) R-SQ.= .6563 F= 5.73 a b 1098.8000 193.4606 139.6000 58.3306

VAR.Y(46) R-SQ.= .5887 F= 4.29 Log(A) Log(b) 6.8959 .1101 11.6423 .1763 .0531 5.9336 39.121 2.072 1.962

VAR.Y(42) R-SQ.= .0311 F= .10 a b 2689.3000 1368.4729 128.1000 412.6101 1.965 .310

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(47) R-SQ.= .9696 F= 95.75 Log(A) 6.9733 .0384 3.9159 .0130 .0039 .4079 535.608 9.785 9.600

VAR.Y(43) R-SQ.= .8697 F= 20.03 a b 540.4000 262.6365 354.4000 79.1879 2.058 4.475

Log(b) C.G.R.

VAR.Y(44) R-SQ.= .8977 F= 26.33 a b 685.6000 225.1882 348.4000 67.8968 3.045 5.131

VAR.Y(48) R-SQ.= .9425 F= 49.14 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 2.343 1.973 6.4260 .3379 40.1933 .1598 .0482 6.7568 40.200 7.010 5.949

VAR.Y(45) R-SQ.= .5648 F= 3.89 a b 764.0000 326.0654 194.0000 98.3124

VAR.Y(49) R-SQ.= .8178 F= 13.46 Log(A) Log(b) 6.6478 .2178 24.3317 .1969 .0594 7.3796 33.770 3.669 3.297

VAR.Y(46) R-SQ.= .5899 F= 4.32 a b 896.2000 271.0901 169.8000 81.7367 3.306 2.077

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(50) R-SQ.= .8984 F= 26.52 Log(A) 6.8223 .1813 19.8758 .1168 .0352 4.2200 58.432 5.150 4.710

VAR.Y(47) R-SQ.= .9706 F= 99.19 a b 1062.0000 46.0000 15.3188 4.6188 69.326 9.959

Log(b) C.G.R.

Page 50

VAR.Y(48) R-SQ.= .9224 F= 35.67 a b 18.2000 351.8533 633.6000 106.0878 .052 5.972

VAR.Y(51) R-SQ.= .8015 F= 12.12 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 1.577 3.205 6.8477 .2232 25.0041 .2126 .0641 8.0148 32.202 3.481 3.120

VAR.Y(49) R-SQ.= .7740 F= 10.27 a b 553.8000 351.2014 339.4000 105.8912

VAR.Y(52) R-SQ.= .4325 F= 2.29 Log(A) Log(b) 6.7907 .0923 9.6692 .2024 .0610 6.6941 33.544 1.512 1.444

VAR.Y(50) R-SQ.= .8639 F= 19.05 a b 709.6000 236.4813 311.2000 71.3018 3.001 4.365

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(53) R-SQ.= .9811 F= 155.62 Log(A) 6.6035 .1050 11.0684 .0279 .0084 .9347 236.601 12.475 11.842

VAR.Y(51) R-SQ.= .7168 F= 7.59 a b 496.8000 591.9435 491.8000 178.4777 .839 2.756

Log(b) C.G.R.

VAR.Y(52) R-SQ.= .4747 F= 2.71 a b 846.4000 235.2875 116.8000 70.9419 3.597 1.646

VAR.Y(54) R-SQ.= .9159 F= 32.67 Log(A) Log(b) C.G.R. 28.033 13.999 6.0292 .2358 26.5910 .1368 .0413 5.2221 44.068 5.716 5.092

VAR.Y(53) R-SQ.= .9849 F= 195.98 a b 704.0000 106.0000 25.1131 7.5719

VAR.Y(55) R-SQ.= .8912 F= 24.57 Log(A) Log(b) 6.3756 .2993 34.8932 .2003 .0604 8.1449 31.837 4.957 4.284

VAR.Y(54) R-SQ.= .9084 F= 29.76 a b 300.3000 120.1917 197.7000 36.2392 2.499 5.455

C.G.R.

VAR.Y(56) R-SQ.= .8545 F= 17.62 Log(A) 5.5409 .3472 41.5053 .2743 .0827 11.7045 20.198 4.197 3.546

VAR.Y(55) R-SQ.= .8606 F= 18.53 a b 183.4000 362.7759 470.8000 109.3810 .506 4.304

Log(b) C.G.R.

VAR.Y(56) R-SQ.= .8828 F= 22.59 a b 70.0000 174.4515 250.0000 52.5991 .401 4.753

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