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Nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth: Evidence from the
emerging Indian economy
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1. Introduction
An efficient flow of funds channelized by a sound financial system helps in accelerating
the growth of an economy (McKinnon, 1973). This is true for all aspects of developed and
developing economies. In this regard, banking institutions are the major organized
Journal of Financial Economic
Policy
Vol. 8 No. 1, 2016
JEL classification – G21, O160 pp. 13-36
The author would like to thank Professor James Barth and Professor John Jahera, Editors of © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
1757-6385
Journal of Financial Economic Policy along with the anonymous reviewers for valuable comments. DOI 10.1108/JFEP-01-2015-0004
JFEP financial intermediaries that help strengthening the financial system of an economy.
8,1 Their sound and effective operations serve to channelize funds from savers to borrowers
and lubricate the wheels of economy. However, when half of the world’s population is
unbanked, this scenario is different and all the above come into question. They neither
have any awareness nor do they have access to financial systems or any kind of formal
or semi-formal financial services for saving or borrowing money (see a published report
14 by Mckinsey & company, 2009). The scenario might be even worse in the case of
developing economies. These statistics highlight the current scenario of financial
exclusion and the dire need for achieving financial inclusion. Financial exclusion can be
fatal for the growth of an economy because it tends to hamper its financial
infrastructure, which is undoubtedly a key driver of economic growth (Gurley and
Shaw, 1955; Goldsmith, 1969; Greenwood and Jovanovic, 1990; Diamond and Dybvig,
1983; Angadi, 2003). Hence, financial inclusion plays a key role in building a strong
foundation of a country’s financial infrastructure, which in turn will facilitate its
economic growth and development. Further, the absence of financial inclusion leads to
financial illiteracy and to the emergence of an unorganized financial sector such as
indigenous banking, which is extremely exploitative in nature. India, a developing
economy, is a bank-based economy, where banking institutions dominate the financial
system. India is the second-most populous country and home to 1.21bn people, and its
economy makes an interesting case to study financial inclusion. However, almost 40 per
cent of the Indian population is unbanked and financially excluded.
To overcome this issue, the Government of India has taken several important steps,
some of which make it:
• mandatory for banks to open their branches in rural areas; and
• to provide access and penetration of banking over the spread of geographical
boundaries.
Figure 1.
Financial tripod
elements represent the internal strategy because financial inclusion provides access to Financial
formal financial services and plays the role of the supply side. The demand side is inclusion and
managed by financial education because it provides awareness and empowers the
society. The strategic collaboration of both financial inclusion and financial education
economic
leads to financial stability of the society and economy as a whole (Bhaskar, 2013). growth
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have attempted to measure
the extent of financial inclusion worldwide. The World Bank has developed a global 17
financial index to measure the financial inclusiveness across various economies. In 2011,
the World Bank conducted a survey of various parameters of credits, insurance,
payments and savings. This was followed by the IMF conducting its financial inclusion
survey in 2012. It was primarily based on financial access parameters, that is, automated
teller machines (ATMs), bank branch penetration, outstanding deposits as a percentage
of the gross domestic product (GDP) and outstanding credit as a percentage of the GDP.
Figures 2-5 show the extent of financial inclusion in India vis-à-vis that in other
economies, based on various surveys and reports.
Credit Dimension
70
60 Loan from a financial
50 institution in the past year
40
15+
Credit Dimension
160
140 Loan in the past
120 year income,
100 top 60%
15+
Deposit Dimension
200
saved at a f inancial
150 institution in the past year
income, top 60%
15+
100
saved at a f inancial
50 institution in the past year
income, bottom 40%
Figure 4. 0
saved at a f inancial
World Bank’s global institution in the past year
financial inclusion
index: savings in a
Financial Institution Source: World Bank Database
Deposit Dimension
250
200
These indicators enable us to get a glimpse of the financial inclusion in India over
several years (Figures 6-8). Figure 6 presents the extent of banking penetration in terms
of deposit and loan accounts per 1,000 adults in India during 2004-2013.
On a positive note, banking penetration in terms of the number of accounts shows an
increasing trend over the specified period. However, the mere opening of deposit
accounts may not result in financial growth, and therefore, the survey further includes
indicators of access of banking services and usage of banking services.
Figure 7 shows the extent of financial inclusion in India in terms of the availability of
financial services. Availability may be defined as the geographic and demographic
penetration of bank branches and ATMs during the specified period. It is interesting to
Figure 6.
Financial inclusion in
India: banking
penetration
JFEP 45
40
8,1 35
30
25
20
20 15
10
5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 7. Bank Branches per 1000 Km Bank Branches per 0.1 million adults
Financial inclusion in ATM per 1000 Km ATM per 0.1 million adults
India: availability of
financial services Source: IMF Database
Figure 8.
Financial inclusion in
India: usage of
financial services
note here that the reach of ATM facility is outpacing the geographical bank branch
penetration over the years. ATM kiosks provide many banking facilities, including
withdrawal and fund transfers for debit cardholders. Therefore, ease of access and
penetration are more for ATMs than for brick-mortar branches.
However, the extent of banking penetration and access of services are also not
sufficient to obtain the desired economic growth. Considering this, we have studied the
usage of financial services in terms of outstanding loans as a percentage of the GDP and
outstanding deposits as a percentage of the GDP over the study period (Figure 8). The
numbers exhibit an increasing and positive trend over the specified years as a mark of
financial inclusion in India as enabled by banking institutions.
The overall discussion on the theoretical concepts of financial inclusion along with
the necessary data provides an insight into the issue of financial inclusion. We will
continue this discussion in the next section through our critical review of the literature
on financial inclusion by considering various dimensions of financial inclusion in India
and other developing and developed economies.
Penetration of banking institutions has been defined based on the following factors:
• number of deposit accounts held by commercial banks per 1,000 adults; and
• number of loan accounts held by commercial banks per 1,000 adults.
These indicators exhibit geographical and demographical financial outreach (Beck et al.,
2007; Kendall et al., 2010; Ghosh, 2011). The banking outreach plays a major role in
inclusive growth, because in India specifically, banks intermediate most of the finances
24 (Ghosh, 2011). Moreover, sound economic growth depends upon an efficient and
productive allocation of funds by banking institutions (McKinnon, 1973). Access of
banking services may also include dimensions related to Internet banking and mobile
banking. However, in India and specifically in rural areas, people still prefer to go to
brick and mortar branches instead of virtual branches to avail banking services. People
prefer to use mobile banking only for checking their balances or for getting short
messaging service alerts on each transaction. Based on the data gathered by a report of
Telecomindiaonline.com (2008), checking of account balances and viewing of the past
three transactions are the most popular mobile banking services. However, payments
and transactions through mobile have not been used much in rural India. Indian
customers are avoiding mobile banking mainly due to reliable and easy access to ATMs
and e-banking and due to security concerns. The penetration of mobile banking was
only 0.2 per cent in India until 2009, and this was expected to increase to 2 per cent by
2012. The expected benchmark was achieved with 22.51 m active m-banking users in
2012-2013, which was only 2.5 m in 2009 (RBI’s report of technical Committee on Mobile
Banking, 2014, and Report of Celent, Indian Mobile banking Unexplored, 2009).
Private and foreign players in metropolitan cities seem to be involved in the major
chunk of online banking-related business activities. The recent figures (from a report of
McKinsey & Company, McKinsey India Personal Financial Service Survey, 2011)
exhibit a 130 per cent increase in the use of Internet banking in India during 2007-2011
with a 15 per cent decline in branch banking. Nevertheless, in India, only 7 per cent
account holders use Internet banking for their transactions. Therefore, one cannot
neglect the increasing role of e-banking and m-banking in the near future. However, as
far as financial inclusion is concerned, e-banking and m-banking are still in their nascent
stage of being considered as suitable factors.
Usage of banking services entail the following:
• outstanding deposit per cent GDP; and
• outstanding credit per cent GDP.
Notes: Ln indicates that figures are taken as natural logarithms; GDP: GDP per capita; banking
penetration: composite index of the number of loan and deposit accounts; access: composite index of the
Table I. number of ATMs per 1,000 km/0.1m and the number of bank branches per 1,000 km/0.1m; usage:
Descriptive statistics composite index of outstanding deposit and credit
The results of the unit root test (Table II) were used to check the stationary nature of data
series. All data series reject the null hypothesis that the series has a unit root, and
therefore, the results confirm stationary data series.
After correcting for unit root, we explored the underlying nexus and causality for GDP
and various indicators of financial inclusion under the VAR model. Optimum lag
structure was determined as “2” with the help of the lowest AIC. The VAR model does
not differentiate between endogenous and exogenous variables. It considers all
variables in the model as endogenous and runs different auto-regressions for different
combinations with the determined lag variables.
It is interesting to note that the models with GDP as dependent variable are found to
be significant models. Therefore, in this study, we have presented all significant models
Notes: *** , ** and * statistically significant at the 1, 5 and 10% levels, respectively; the values of t-statistics are presented in parentheses
29
Vector auto-
Table IV.
growth
economic
inclusion and
Financial
explained in better terms only while taking account of the level of non-performing assets
prevailing in the Indian banking sector. Therefore, our results reveal an insignificant
association of outstanding credit with the economic growth of a nation.
The overall analysis of the VAR model reveals an evidence-based support for the
financial inclusion– growth nexus in India in the short run. These findings are in line
with those of the seminal work of Walter (1873), Schumpeter (1912), McKinnon (1973),
Shaw (1973) and King and Levine (1993). These findings emphasize the vital role of
financial inclusion because it provides easy access of banking services to the common
person at a cheaper rate, which dynamically promotes novelty and growth by efficient
allocation of funds across each section of the society. The access of funds and their
efficient allocation create capital accumulation and productivity improvements, which
ultimately leads to better economic prospects (Levine and Zervos, 1998). These results
can also be interpreted in view of the structure of the Indian financial system, which is
solely a bank-based system. Therefore, the inclusion of the entire society within the
financial system through effective banking penetration and access leads to the ultimate
economic prosperity of a nation.
The country-level analysis suggests that there is a positive and significant
association between financial inclusion and economic growth. However, the literature
provides contradicting results on the direction of causality between finance and growth.
This major conflict is believed to be due to the presence/absence of unidirectional/
bi-directional causality and how this causality can be associated with financial inclusion
(Pradhan, 2010).
To further strengthen the evidence on the financial inclusion– growth nexus, in this
study, we assessed the existence of unidirectional/bi-directional causality between
indicators of financial inclusion and economic growth. In addition, we used VAR
Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests. Table VI presents the results of the
VAR Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests with two lags; the value of the
optimum lag was selected using the lowest AIC value.
Direction of Chi-square Degree of
Financial
causality statistics freedom Probability inclusion and
economic
Penetration ¡ GDP 3.749 2 0.153
GDP ¡ Penetration 0.133 2 0.935 growth
GDP ¡ Number of deposit accounts 3.249 2 0.197
Number of deposit accounts ¡ GDP 40.894 2 0.000***
GDP ¡ Number of loan accounts 0.260 2 0.877
31
Number of loan accounts ¡ GDP 59.964 2 0.000***
Access ¡ GDP 12.570 2 0.002***
GDP ¡ Access 0.375 2 0.828
ATM per 1,000 km ¡ GDP 27.135 2 0.000***
GDP ¡ ATM per 1,000 km 19.806 2 0.000***
ATM per 0.1m adults ¡ GDP 397.625 2 0.000***
GDP ¡ ATM per 0.1 m adults 0.2188 2 0.896
Branches per 1,000 km ¡ GDP 4.358 2 0.050**
GDP ¡ Branches per 1,000 km 33.003 2 0.000***
Branches per 0.1 m adults ¡ GDP 1.487 2 0.475
GDP ¡ Branches per 0.1 m adults 3.338 2 0.188
Usage ¡ GDP 4.632 2 0.098*
GDP ¡ Usage 2.424 2 0.297
GDP ¡ Outstanding credit (% GDP) 0.070 2 0.965 Table VI.
Outstanding credit (% GDP) ¡ GDP 0.362 2 0.834 VAR granger
GDP ¡ Outstanding deposit (% GDP) 0.219 2 0.896 causality/block
Outstanding deposit (% GDP) ¡ GDP 0.117 2 0.943 exogeneity Wald
tests (number of
Note: *** , ** and * statistically significant at the 1, 5 and 10% levels, respectively lags ⫽ 2)
Banking penetration as a composite index and GDP does not exhibit any causality.
However, the number of deposit accounts and number of loan accounts Granger cause
GDP and demonstrate unidirectional causality. Access to banking services Granger
causes GDP and geographic outreach exhibits a bi-directional causality with economic
growth in line with the findings of Apergis et al. (2007) and Pradhan (2010). This
bi-directional causality reveals that a strong banking infrastructure in terms of
geographic outreach fosters economic growth. Further, a positive economic outlook
creates easy access to banking services and develops the outreach of ATMs and bank
branches. Demographic outreach of ATMs exhibits a unidirectional causality with the
GDP, whereas bank branches exhibit no causality. Findings of the Wald test show that
there is no causality between credit/deposit creation and GDP. However, the usage of
banking services exhibits a unidirectional causality only at a 10 per cent level of
significance.
Notes
1. RuPay debit card is India’s first domestic card issued in co-ordination with the National
payment Corporation of India. It can be used in ATM point of sales and e-commerce
transactions in India only.
2. HDFC Ergo is a leading general insurance company in India, which offers motor, personal, Financial
health and travel insurance, among others products. inclusion and
3. LIC is a leading state-owned life insurance company in India. economic
4. CRISIl Inclusix is an index to measure India’s progress on financial inclusion and is developed growth
by CRISIL, a Standard & Poor’s company. All calculations were based on the data provided
by the RBI.
33
5. Northeast India is the easternmost part of India and is geographically located in the eastern
Himalayas. Due to its disadvantageous geographical location, this region is economically
underdeveloped, and the ratio of current and savings accounts per 100 adults is very low
(Report of the RBI Committee on Financial Sector Plan for NER, 2006).
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Corresponding author
Dipasha Sharma can be contacted at: dipashasharma20@gmail.com
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