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THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Reaching for the Sky
Bishan was once a quiet rural area with an old cemetery, which was established in 1870 by immigrants who largely came from Guangdong Province in China. The burial ground was called Pi Shan Ting, which translates to pavilions on the green; hence, the name Bishan. Initial fears of living on top of a graveyard in the belief that bad luck would follow for disturbing the dead proved unfounded. Today, Bishan is one of the most popular HDB towns and has brought homeowners prosperity in the form of higher property valuations. Private sector developers have also sought a foothold in Condo sizes at Sky Habitat this centrally located estate. The new kid on the block is No. of BR Size (sq ft) No. of units % Sky Habitat, a joint venture between CapitaLand (60% 635-969 66 13% stake), Mitsubishi Estate (25%) and Shimizu (10%). The 1BR consortium paid a SGD118m premium over the second2BR 721-1485 149 29% highest bid for the land parcel last year, which implied a land cost of SGD869.4 psf ppr with an estimated 3BR 1216-1862 218 43% breakeven price of SGD1,300 psf. The rollout of the 1787-2259 68 13% iconic 38-storey condominium had been eagerly 4BR anticipated and it achieved an ASP of SGD1,700 psf on PH 2562-3638 8 2% average when it was launched two weekends ago. Source: CapitaLand Anecdotally, the success of Sky Habitat would suggest that the price gap between city centre and suburban homes is narrowing. This could be because land supply in the traditional prime areas (ie, districts 9, 10 and 11) has become more limited, forcing developers to innovate to differentiate their products in the suburbs, in particular, the mature estates. We take a look at the sales supply in Bishan to find out more.
Artists impression of Sky Habitat
26 April 2012
Source: CapitaLand
Condos near Sky Habitat Bishan 8 Project Developer Far East Location 61 Bishan Street Total no. of units 200 Tenure 99 Yr (fm 1996) TOP 2000 Past Yr ASP (psf) SGD1,118 Median rental yield 3.6%
Source: Maybank KE
Bishan Loft (EC) Chip Eng Seng 31-35 Bishan Street 384 99 Yr (fm 2000) 2003 SGD981 n.a
Rafflesia Condo Far East 31-33 Bishan Street 230 99 Yr (fm 1997) 2003 SGD1,046 4.1%
Clover by the Park Sim Lian Group 2 Bishan Street 616 99 Yr (fm 2007) 2012 SGD1,048 3.6%
Condominium prices in Bishan have been climbing up steadily in the past five years, rising by 50% from approximately SGD700 psf to todays SGD1,050 psf. Bishan Lofts five-year Minimum Occupation Period expired in 2006 and unit prices have since seen an aggressive jump a la its older neighbour, Bishan 8. The last private condo in Bishan to receive its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) was Clover by the Park in 2012. It saw subsale prices rising long before the TOP date but we note that sales did stagnate at one point due to the 09 crisis. Among our selection of Bishan condos, Rafflesia Condominium achieved the highest median rental of SGD3.58 psf for 3Q11, implying a yield of 3.9-4.5%.
Rental trends
Project name Clover by the Park Gardens at Bishan, The +2.9% Chg in median rental $ psf pm 25th percentile 2.96 3.35 3.16 3.04 +9.7% Rafflesia Condominium Bishan 8
Source: URA
75th percentile 3.36 3.83 3.61 3.57 3.33 3.90 3.70 3.44
No. of contracts 22 20 21 18 25 10 15 11
0%
26 April 2012
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New launches in mature estates 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 Jul-09 Source: URA Oct-09 Jan-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Centro Residences Trevista
26 April 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project Bishan 8 Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Bishan 8 Rafflesia Bishan 8 Rafflesia Bishan 8 Clover by the Park Rafflesia Bishan 8 Clover by the Park Rafflesia Bishan 8 Clover by the Park Bishan 8 Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Bishan 8 Clover by the Park Bishan Loft Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Clover by the Park Bishan 8
Source: URA
25 April 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Size (sq m) 108 161 149 325 110 85 130 85 111 167 111 111 167 111 109 161 109 116 120 161 162 120 170 162 108 147 184 120 162 134 110
Price ($psf) 1204 1108 999 988 971 1093 929 1093 1088 801 1000 996 1027 1129 1009 1068 1039 926 1004 1038 1101 982 900 1147 1265 999 919 1161 1079 1096 929
Index SRPI Overall (Dec 11) URA PPI (1Q12) HDB Resale (1Q12)
Jalan Lempeng Kovan Road / Simon Road Jervois Road Bedok South Avenue 3 Hillview Avenue Up Serangoon View/ Up Serangoon Rd
(EC)
IOI Corp Hoi Hup consortium Singapore Land Far East/ Frasers/ Sekisui House Kingsford Development Ho Lee Group Pte & Evia Real Estate Qingjian Realty (South Pacific) Group Peak Living Pte Elitist Development
Site area (k sqm)
43.4
435
142
303
Confirmed List
Site Woodlands Ave 5/ Woodlands Dr 16 Tampines Central 7/ Tampines Ave 7/ Tampines Av 9 Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel A) Sengkang Square/ Compassvale Drive Pasir Ris Dr Buangkok Drive/ Sengkang Central
Units Tender Closing
Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.97 CityDev 10.45 Ho Bee 1.395 HPL 1.955 KepLand 3.2 SC Global 1.06 SingLand 5.93 UOL 4.57 Wheelock 1.84 Wing Tai 1.24 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.95 -40% 3.51 12.4 -16% 7.51 3.18 -56% 2.34 4.39 -55% 2.7 5.77 -45% 3.64 3.6 -71% 1.59 9.82 -40% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.81 -56% 2.47 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -15% 39% -40% -28% -12% -33% -45% -29% -22% -50%
Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Boon Lay Way (Jurong Gateway) Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Farrer Dr & Rd Alexandra View Punggol Way/ Punggol Walk Source: HDB, URA
26 April 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Take -up rate (%) 73% 26% 82% 99% 95% 47% 28% 30% 50% 87% 41% 61% 87% 47% 92% 57% 51% 58% 51% 48% 24% 68%
100%
25 April 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
Units sold (Mar) 14 9 54 69 41 34 31 30 25 20 20 18 10 93 83 41 38 27 19 326 102 74 12 369 118 115 98 86 48 45 39 37 28 27 19 18 10 56 56 30 15 153 41 40 14 13
Median
($psf) 2,092 3,265 1,270 1,379 1,242 1,448 1,308 1,735 1,267 1,330 1,100 1,236 1,131 1,074 1,309 1,388 1,330 1,229 1,397 883 860 905 849 725 890 880 1162 1,246 1048 1437 834 695 1,342 1,001 1,282 900 940 738 1334 1,412 704 798 1038 882 869 827
City & Southwest (1-8) Skyline Residences 283 208 Orchard / Tanglin / Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 60 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Thomson Grand 361 296 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Millage 70 69 Levenue 43 41 Smart Suites 72 34 Cradels 125 35 18 Woodsville 101 30 Ness 62 31 Centra Residences 78 68 Riviera 38 102 42 Primedge 36 22 Vacanza @ East 473 410 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 271 East Village 90 83 Sycamore Tree 96 55 The Cristallo 74 38 Flamingo Valley 393 226 The Lush 37 19 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Ripple Bay 679 326 Palm Isles 429 102 The Palette 892 609 NV Residences 642 642 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Twin Waterfall (EC) 728 625 The Minton 1145 1062 590 310 Riversound Residences Seletar Park Residence 276 98 Bartley Residences 702 251 The Luxurie 622 322 Casa Cambio 198 192 Parc Vera 452 287 540 493 Austville Residences (EC) Watertown 992 935 Terrasse 414 382 Cardiff Residences 163 124 Boathouse Residences 493 374 A Treasure Trove 882 820 West (22-24) The Rainforest (EC) 466 408 Natura@Hillview 193 56 The Hillier 528 478 Blossom Residences(EC) 602 505 North (25-28) Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 338 Parc Rosewood 689 607 The Nautical 435 251 The Miltonia Residences 410 358 Eight Courtyards 654 555 Source: URA
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA
$psf Feb12 1,347 1.776 1,207 928 977 774 899 793 710
$psf Mar12 1,336 1,692 1,263 995 1,026 805 887 764 728
MoM % change -0.8 -4.7 4.6 7.2 5.0 4.1 -1.3 -3.7 2.5
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Jan12 4.8 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 $psf pm Feb12 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 MoM % change -0.5 0.2 -11.7 -0.4 -2.1 3.1 1.6 1.2 -9.4
86% 93% 53% 36% 36% 52% 97% 63% 91% 94% 92% 76% 76% 93% 88% 29% 91% 84% 50% 88% 58% 87% 85%
26 April 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
25 April 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Unsold Units 545 118 122 203 178 5 150 283 1,517 605 135 451 785 58 97 207 545 5,459 68 620 286 307 234 94 300 1,909
City Dev
Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19
CapitaLand
3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
336 39 1,249 55 150 72 509 140 2,550 110 357 467 11 306 317 187 131 248 147 60 20 793 74 84 158
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr 99yr
UOL
2 16
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 12 12 21
Wheelock
9 10
Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Freehold Freehold
26 April 2012
Page 6 of 8
25 April 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 381 36 917 75 55 24 88 221 80 232 80 855 249 197 23 595 97 327 119 47 103 99 1,856 17 64 38 42 157 35 276 629 32 70 65 353 32 520 35 208 23 50 31 347 16,809
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23
MCL Land
10 10 15 17 19
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (6 avenue) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total
Source:HDB,URA
26 April 2012
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