Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Vietnam: Visit by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta Carlyle A. Thayer May 30, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. Given the background that tension in the South China Sea are raising due to a number of assertive Chinese actions, such as its annual unilateral fishing ban, the operations of its mega deep sea oil rig to the South China Sea, and the deployment of enforcement ships to the Scarborough Shoal, what are the main purposes of US Secretary of Defense Leon Panettas forthcoming visit to Viet Nam. ANSWER: The main purpose of Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta to Vietnam is to fulfil the agreement between Vietnam and the United States to exchange visits by their defense ministers every three years. Secretary Panetta is repaying the visit of Defence Minster General Phung Quang Thanh to Washington in 2009. Last year Vietnam and the United States agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding on defence cooperation. Secretary Panetta will review progress in the five priority areas: regular high-level dialogue between the defence ministries; maritime security; search and rescue; study experiences of United Nations peacekeeping; and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. In addition the two side signed a Statement of Intent on cooperation in military medicine. The two sides are likely to discuss briefly the implementation of this agreement. The two ministers are likely to discuss continuing cooperation I counter-terrorism, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, and counter-narcotics. The two sides will exchange views of regional and international security issues, including maritime security in the East Sea. Finally the two sides will discuss future activities possibly including a renewed agreement on Vietnamese repairs to non-combat US Navy ships at commercial facilities in Cam Ranh Bay and the exchange of intelligence information related to the South China Sea. Vietnam will continue to press for US assistance in cleaning up the hot spots left by Agent Orange. Q2. What is your assessment of the possibility the United States might lift its ban on the sale of lethal military weapons to Viet Nam? If the US lifts its ban will this result in direct sale to Vietnam or will lethal weapons be routed through third parties such as US allies? ANSWER: The United States will not alter its policy of retaining restrictions on the sale of lethal and some non-lethal weapons to Vietnam. The United States has made it clear that these restrictions will not be removed until the human rights situation in

2 Vietnam improves. The recent country report on human rights in Vietnam issued by the Department of State does not provide any grounds for changing US policy. When Senators John McCain and Joe Liberman visited Vietnam recently they told a press conference in Bangkok they has been presented with a wish list of military equipment but they would not approve it until the human rights situation improved. With an election looming in November it is unlikely there will be a major change of policy at the present time. American allies who purchase US military equipment or use US technology are restricted from pass this on to third parties. In the case where an American ally has produced its own military equipment it can sell this to Vietnam under the terms of its domestic law. For example, the Netherlands can see its SIGMA corvettes to Vietnam and even co-produce them in Vietnam. Q3. Is there any chance for Viet Nam and the United States to further cooperate in the military field? What kind of cooperation is most likely? ANSWER: The United States would definitely like to expand defence cooperation to more practical activities and joint exercises. It has been Vietnam that has been hesitant to take this step. This is why when US warships visit Da Nang every year they conduct activities and not exercises. Exercises involve exchanges on combat skills. If further cooperation is developed it is likely to be in non-controversial areas such as non-traditional security. This would involve cooperation to address humanitarian assistance and disaster relief and search and rescue. It is likely that Vietnam will slowly step up its involvement in US professional military education and training by sending more officers to the US.