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4.chuyen Doi Co Cau Kinh Te
4.chuyen Doi Co Cau Kinh Te
Bi 04:
Pht trin kinh t khng ch l gia tng thu nhp b/q u ngi. Khi thu nhp b/q u ngi gia tng th c cu nn kinh t cng thay i.
Dch vu
26% 31 41 36
+
35% 41 44 60
32 35 43 53 58 66
Trng phi c cu
Tng trng kinh t c coi l mt mt ca s chuyn i c cu sn xut cn phi c p ng cc nhu cu thay i v s dng cng ngh mt cch hiu qu hn. Vi d bo khng hon ho v hn ch trong chuyn dch nhn t sn xut, nhng thay i c cu c nhiu kh nng xy ra trong iu kin bt cn bng; iu ny c bit ng i vi th trng nhn t sn xut. Do vy, s chuyn dch lao ng
v vn t khu vc nng sut thp sang khu vc nng sut cao s y nhanh tng trng. - Chenery
(1986)
C cu
Tnh trng mt cn bng v khc bit gia cc khu vc ca nn kinh t. Phn b ngun lc khng c ti u. Nng sut bin ca lao ng hay ca vn gia cc khu vc kinh t c th khc nhau. Tng sn lng thng qua di chuyn ngun lc. Ngun tng trng: Cc ngun tng trng tn c in, v Chuyn ngun lc sang cc ngnh c nng sut cao hn Hiu qu theo quy m Tho g cc ch tc, tr lc trong ni b nn kinh t v t bn ngoi.
thu nhp u ngi tng t trng tiu dng LT-TP gim dn trong tng chi tiu ca h gia nh.
nn kinh t ang pht trin: thng d LNN nh hon ton co gin) cho CN.
Hot ng dch v cng tng: gio dc, chm sc sc khe, cung cp cc dch v ti chnh, ngn hng, tip th Cng nghip ha song hnh th ha Thay i yu t XH khc (thu nhp, dn s, gio dc)
Nn ch trng bao nhiu vo nng nghip so cng nghip trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t?
Chenery:
Thu nhp < $600: g u pht trin ( da vo NN). Thu nhp $600-$3000: g chuyn i (da vo CN)
Ngoi thng:
X v M tng CN/X tng.
th ha: dn s th vt nng thn khi thu nhp u ngi t $1000. Thay i KT-XH khc: tng trng dn s, phn phi thu nhp, gio dc,
Lu : USD tnh trong hnh ny v 2 hnh trc l theo gi 76. 1 USD nm 1976 tng ng 3 USD nm 2000.
Kt lun ca phi c cu
Pht trin = qu trnh tng tng v thay i c cu c tnh chnh tng t nhau tt c cc nc. Tuy nhin:
cc nn kinh t: khc bit nhp v kiu hnh c th do yu t tc ng (quy m nn kinh t, ti nguyn, th ch, chnh sch, s sn c ca vn v cng ngh nc ngoi, mi trng ngoi thng,).
Ch c m hnh bnh qun cho cc nhm nc khc nhau ca cc nc ang pht trin nh, ln v rt ln. Khng c t l ng gia thu nhp bnh qun u ngi vi t trng nng nghip, cng nghip v cc khu vc khc.
Phc v nhu cu rng ri t ngi thu nhp thp. S dng l khng cn k nng (d tha cc nc ang pht trin).
Cng nghip tr: (hng ha lu bn: xe hi, t lnh)
co gin cu theo thu nhp cao. Thm dng vn v/ hay lao ng k nng.
Tng trng cn i
Pht trin lot cc ngnh kinh t cng lc tng trng c duy tr lu di. Nc ngho:
ngun lc hn hp kh nhng nu khng khng c CNH. cn c y ln/ n lc thit yu ti thiu.
m bo
Tng trng cn i:
Pha cu: xy dng nhiu ngnh, ngi lao ng dng thu nhp ngnh mnh mua sn phm ngnh khc. Pha cung: xy dng nhiu ngnh, ngnh ny s dng sn phm ngnh kia.
Tng trng bt cn i
(Hirschman)
Lin kt sau (backward linkages): ngnh c lin kt sau s dng xut lng ca nhng ngnh khc.
Nu u tin s ko theo pht trin nhng ngnh sn xut nhp lng cho n. Sn xut xe hi cn thp v ng c
Lin kt trc (forward linkages): ngnh c lin kt trc cung cp nhp lng cho nhng ngnh khc.
Nu u tin s ko theo pht trin ca nhng ngnh s dng sn phm ca n lm nhp lng.
Hai mt ca ng xu
Tng trng cn i
Mc tiu: mc cn i ca k hoch pht trin. La chn: duy tr cn i gia cc ngnh, bt cn i ban u, thng qua nhng p lc lin kt thc y tng trng. nh v - nh mc tiu - nh chun ?
Sn lng ngnh A
Nguyn Xun Thnh/Chu Vn Thnh
PHAT TRIEN au vao hien ai Thang d tai chnh Khuvcc v novc ng nghiep D lao ong Khu vc nong thon Khu vc cong nghiep o th KV phan con lai cua the gii
Thang d lng thc Cau tang len Phan chia cho ngi kem giau co
10
Chuyn i c cu ng
Indonesia (1960-2000)
50
A n o (1960-2000)
40
Ha n Quo c (1960-1980)
30
20
2500
3000
3500
4000
11
Trung Quo c
50
40
30
Nam
Ha n Quo c
20
10
Indonesia
Philippines
Chenh lech ty trong nong nghiep trong GDP nam 1970 so vi 2000 (%)
Ngun: Tnh ton ca FETP t s liu ca WB Development Indicators 2002.
-2
12
Philippines
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Philippines
70 80 90 100
Ty trong CN che bien trong tong kim ngach xuat khau, 1970-00 (%)
Ngun: Tnh ton ca FETP t s liu ca WB Development Indicators 2002.
13
duy tr
CNH c thc y bi lan ta t nc ny sang nc khc do chuyn giao cng ngh gn vi FDI.
Hoa chat
14
Thuyt n su bay
Thuyt n su bay
Nht Bn:
CN nh CN nng in t, cng ngh cao Hn Quc v i Loan ngnh Nht ri b.
Hn Quc, i Loan, Singapore Thi Lan, Indonesia v Malaysia Trung Quc, Vit Nam.
CN nng v in t th CN nh.
bc thang cng ngh v thm dng vn; cc ngnh cng nghip c bn chuyn t nhng nn kinh t i u, sang nhm th hai, th ba v th t.
15
Ngun: Ito v Orii (2000); ring i vi Vit Nam, s liu do FETP tnh ton theo ngun ca TCTK.
16
Ngun: Ito v Orii (2000); ring i vi Vit Nam, s liu do FETP tnh ton theo ngun ca TCTK.
17
Bin c cu: XA (lao ng v vn chuyn dch NN sang CN) XE (tc tng trng xut khu) XF (thm ht BOP) XD (trnh pht trin)
Du cc h s ?
tng dn s
Cung: Cu:
Gim v nh tr t canh tc Khoa hc hin i v pht trin ging nng sut cao
Dn s tng v cu lng thc co gin ca cu la go theo thu nhp (trc tip v gin tip qua tht)
Df = (gY) + (gPOP)
Bng chng:
Nht Bn v Hn Quc sm thnh nc M lng thc Trung Quc c th l nc tip theo? Nng nghip Vit Nam s nh th no?
18
Dn s
Tng trng dn s (%)
1970-80 ng - TBD Chu Phi H Sahara Nam Nht Bn Hn Quc Trung Quc Indonesia 1980-92
Dn s ng Nam (triu)
1948-52 Indonesia Thi Lan Malaysia Vit Nam Myanmar Philippines Tng cng 1997
200 61 21 77 47 73 479
Dn s v t canh tc
t canh tc b/q u ngi (ha)
1974 Nht Bn Trung Quc Hn Quc i Loan Indonesia Ton Chu (khng k Trung Quc) Chu M La tinh M Nm
25 63 91 112 130
19
Cu hi
1. Khc bit chnh gia MH tn c in v MH c cu? 2. Yu t no phi c cu b sung MH tn c in gii thch ngun tng trng? 3. Chuyn dch c cu, c kiu hnh pht trin thng thng? 4. Kiu hnh pht trin cng nghip, tng tng cn bng/bt cn bng c ngha nh th no? 5. Kiu hnh pht trin ng c g c bit? 6. Thuyt n su bay cn gi tr p dng? 7. Bi hc cho Vit Nam v cc a phng?
20