1.

Metode Constant
MINGGU
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Y'

Tingkat penjualan(Y)
10
6
5
12
10
15
6
12
17
20
113

Harga(X)
1.3
2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
1
1.1
14.4
SSE
MSE

Error
1.69
28.09
39.69
0.49
1.69
13.69
28.09
0.49
32.49
75.69
222.1
22.21

11.3

2. Metode Linier Trend

MINGGU
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

a
b

Tingkat
penjualan(Y)
10
6
5
12
10
15
6
12
17
20
113
2218.841336
1294.09269

Harga(X)
1.3
2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
1
1.1
14.4

XY
13
12
8.5
18
16
18
9.6
16.8
17
22
150.9

X2
1.69
4
2.89
2.25
2.56
1.44
2.56
1.96
1
1.21
21.56

Y'
3901.162
4807.027
4418.799
4159.98
4289.39
3771.753
4289.39
4030.571
3512.934
3642.343

Error
15141140.41
23049857.53
19481620.81
17205741.16
18313175.69
14113189.83
18347426.81
16148913.7
12221554.71
13121370.95

SSE
MSE

167143991.6
16714399.16

3. Metode Quadratic
MINGGU
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

^2
*
*
*

Tingkat
penjualan(Y)
10
6
5
12
10
15
6
12
17
20
113

Harga(X)
1.3
2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
1
1.1
14.4

X2
1.69
4
2.89
2.25
2.56
1.44
2.56
1.96
1
1.21
21.56

-24.336
-8.24
-72.7384
339.98
118.2
592.240896
-8597.67888
-8273.75328
599.364416

X3
2.197
8
4.913
3.375
4.096
1.728
4.096
2.744
1
1.331
33.48

X4
2.8561
16
8.3521
5.0625
6.5536
2.0736
6.5536
3.8416
1
1.4641
53.7572

X 2Y
16.9
24
14.45
27
25.6
21.6
15.36
23.52
17
24.2
209.63

XY
13
12
8.5
18
16
18
9.6
16.8
17
22
150.9

Y'
-147.8541
640.8126
260.1893
41.95985
147.5226
-232.1053
147.5226
-56.49907
-379.296
-309.2526

Error
24917.92
402987
65121.58
897.5926
18912.48
61061.02
20028.66
4692.122
157050.5
108407.3

SSE
MSE

864076.1
86407.61

b = -45.4727
c = 355.1937
a = -689.017

4. Metode Exponential
MINGGU
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Tingkat
penjualan(Y)
10
6
5
12
10
15
6
12
17
20
113

Harga(X)
1.3
2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
1
1.1
14.4

115.5662919

ln a

-164.0849667

5.4803E-72

ln
(Y)
2.30
1.79
1.60
2.48
2.30
2.70
1.79
2.48
2.83
2.99
23.30

x2

x.ln(Y)

b.x

e b.x

Y'

1.69
4
2.89
2.25
2.56
1.44
2.56
1.96
1
1.21
21.56

2.99
3.58
2.73
3.72
3.68
3.24
2.86
3.47
2.83
3.29
32.44

150.2361795
231.1325838
196.4626962
173.3494379
184.9060671
138.6795503
184.9060671
161.7928087
115.5662919
127.1229211

1.765E+65
2.3967E+100
2.10216E+85
1.92621E+75
2.01226E+80
1.68952E+60
2.01226E+80
1.84384E+70
1.54811E+50
1.61727E+55

9.67271E-07
1.31344E+29
1.15204E+14
10556.22624
1102780242
9.25908E-12
1102780242
0.101048158
8.48413E-22
8.86314E-17

Error
99.99998065
1.72512E+58
1.32721E+28
111180707
1.21612E+18
225
1.21612E+18
141.5850549
289
400

SSE
MSE

1.72512E+58
1.72512E+57

166.82101

6. Metode Exponential Smoothing

MINGGU

Tingkat
penjualan(Y)

Harga(X)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10
6
5
12
10
15
6
12
17
20
113

1.3
2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.4
1
1.1
14.4

Forecast
0.3
0.5
10
8.8
5.7
7.1
11.4
11.5
12.3
7.8
13.5
88.1

10
8
5.5
8.5
11
12.5
8.3
9
14.5
87.3
SSE
MSE

Error
0.3
100
16
14.44
39.69
8.41
12.96
30.25
0.09
84.64
42.25

0.5
100
16
9
42.25
2.25
16
42.25
13.69
64
30.25

348.73
34.873

335.69
33.569

Dari 5 model diatas dapat dilihat tingkat error masing-masing model pada tabel di
bawah ini
Jenis
Error

Model

Constant

Linier

Quadratic

Exponensial

Exponensial
Smoothing

Trend

SSE

222.1

167143991.6

864076.1

1.72512E+58

348.73

MSE

22.21

16714399.16

86407.61

1.72512E+57

34.873

Dengan melihat nilai SSE dan MSE pada tabel dapat disimpulkan bahwa model yang
paling baik digunakan adalah Metode constant, karena nilai eror nya lebih kecil.