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OFFSHORE FINANCIAL ASSETS - HIGH NET WORTH INDIVIDUALS

DECEMBER $TR

2004
BIS Non-Bank Offshore Deposits Liquidity Ratio2
>Minimum3 >Max (MLlCG Ave)4 3.5 3.0 3.0 5.0 $4.05

2005
$4.68 3.0 4.9

2006
$5.97 3.0 4.6

2007
$7.43 3.0 4.5

2008
$6.93 3.0 3.6

2009
$6.59 3.0

2010
$7.01

3.0 4.5 $21.02 $31.53

3.8

Total Financial Assets >Minimum $10.4 >Max (MLlCG Ave) Est Average
$8.9 $9.7 $12.1 $20.2 $16.2 $14.0 $22.9 $18.5 $17.9 $27.5 $22.7 $22.3 $33.4 $27.9 $20.8 $24.9 $22.9 $19.8 $24.7 $22.2

$26.3
© JSH/TJN 2012

Source: BIS(-'04-'1 0) data,MLlCapGemini ('04-'10) HNWI asset allocations, our analysis


1

BIS Table 1: external deposit liabilities to non-banks


Yearly average portfolio ratio, deposits to total liquid financial assets (including tradeable equities and fixed income)

2 3
4

Using TIN's very conservative assumption for the liquidity ratio, based on the 2004 McKinsey study
Using ML/CapGemini's average portfolio allocation for HNWls, 2004-2010

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TJN Inti 2012

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iTOP 50 GLOBAL PRIVAiTE BANKS, 2005-2010 ($Billions, Assets Under Management)


Jun-05 Rank 12005 1 2 7 19 5 6 9 24 8 4 11 12 2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Top 10 - Total Next 10 - Total Next 30 - Total Top 50 - Total UBS Credit Suisse Goldman Sachs Bank America HSBC Deutsche Bk BNP Pari bas Wells Fargo Morgan Stanleyl SSB* JPMorganChase Pictet Bank Leumi Barclays Commerzbank ABNAmro TD Canada Banque Julius Baer Credit Agricole Bk of New York Northern Trust $2,272.8 $1,412.4 $1,706.0

(1/2) Dec-10

MktOfo 42.2%
26.2% 31.6%

Dec-09 $3,660.8 $2,319.9 $2,069.4

MktOfo 45.5%
28.8% 25.7%

MktOfo 51.2% 20.0%

$6,182 $ 12,066.4
$1,789.0 $932.9 $840.0 $643.9 $390.0 $367.5 $338.0 $300.0 $297.0 $284.0 $270.0 $251.0 $238.3 $225.0 $218.4 $183.0 $181.0 $171.0 $166.0 $154.0

$5,391.3
$1,349.2 $469.2 $166.0 $108.5 $183.0 $180.9 $158.0 $78.0 $165.0 $187.0 $150.0 $138.0 $135.3 $30.2 $150.8 $49.4 $46.8 $114.1 $82.6 $111.5

100% $8,050.1
$1,627.6 $770.1 $220.5 $433.8 $250.0 $464.2 $293.0 $187.3 $365.0 $266.0 $236.6 $202.5 $230.0 $207.1 $199.1 $65.0 $160.2 $215.2 $84.0 $141.5

100%

15.8%
5.8% 14.7% 38.3% 42.8% 16.3% 15.2% 16.4% 30.9% 12.5% 8.7% 12.5% 12.7% 12.0% 49.4% 7.7% 29.9% 31.1% 8.4% 15.0% 6.7%

13
38 10 32 34 16 23 17

13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Source: bank financials, private banking industry interviews, JSH analysis

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TJN Inti 2012

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......__T_I_E_R_T_W_O~: T O P_5_0_G_L_O_B_A_L P_R_IV.'A__ ...... T_E_B_A_N_K_S~2_0_05_-_2_01_0_ _ ($Billions, Assets Under Management)


Rank 2005 14 18 27 30 25 33 31 42 35 37 43 29 3 41 22 40 45 36 47 46 51 39 50 44 54 48 52 49 53 55 Source: 2010 Top 10 - Total Next 10- Total Next 30 - Total Jun-05 $2,272.8 $1,412.4 $1,706.0

-----I

(2/2)

42.2% 26.2% 31.6%

$5,391.3 100% $8,050.1 Top 50 - Total $123.0 $130.1 21 Lombard Odier $111.4 $131.8 22 Banco Santander $66.3 $109.1 23 Societe General $56.8 $86.5 24 ING Group $71.3 $87.7 25 Bk of Montreal 'II $47.1 $88.9 26 BP Edmund de Rothchild $52.8 $91.2 27 LGT $26.0 $93.3 28 EFG Inti $46.4 $68.2 29 Raiffesen Banking Group 'II $39.7 $82.8 BSI Bank 30 $22.2 $42.9 31 RBC $61.0 $82.4 32 UBP $293.7 $35.0 Citigroup* 33 $27.3 $46.4 34 Bank Sarasin $83.2 $69.0 KBC/KBL 35 $27.4 $43.6 36 MM Warburg $21.8 $30.8 37 Standard Chartered $41.3 $51.0 RBSjCoutts 38 $17.9 $30.1 Lloyds TSB 39 'II $19.1 $30.6 40 Berenburg Bank $15.8 $24.6 41 Vontobel AG $28.3 $26.2 42 SEB $15.9 $23.3 43 Luzerner Cantonal $22.0 $22.9 44 Schroders $6.0 $23.0 OCBC (Sing) 45 VP Bank $16.1 $18.5 46 $10.0 $15.0 47 Bankhause Lampe $16.0 $24.1 48 Wegelin $8.0 $10.0 49 Reuscheul &Co $5.3 $6.7 DZ Privatebank 50 Bank financial statements, industry interviews, JSH analysis

II

Dec-09 $3,660.8 $2,319.9 $2,069.4

45.5% 28.8% 25.7%

Dec-10 $6,182

51.2%

20.0% 2005-2010 AAGR% 15.8% 4.6% 6.1% 11.1% 14.1% 7.8% 16.0% 11.7% 28.7% 12.9% 16.3% 27.5% 2.6% -29.8% 12.7% -10.2% 12.0% 16.1% 1.6% 14.4% 12.2% 14.9% 1.2% 11.9% 2.7% 30.1% 6.4% 14.8% -2.6% 6.6% 8.6%

100%

12,066.4

$153.9 $150.0 $112.5 $110.0 $103.8 $99.1 $92.0 $91.7 $85.0 $84.5 $75.0 $69.3 $50.0 $49.6 $48.6 $48.2 $46.0 $44.7 $35.0 $34.1 $31.6 $30.0 $27.8 $25.1 $22.4 $22.0 $20.0 $14.0 $11.0 $8.0 © JSH/ TJN Inti 2012

Triangulating on the offshore black hole ....


Unrecorded Capital Flows and Stocks
( 139/154 developing countries)

Growth Factors - TP Abuse



Corporate globalization - Trade+investment - Traded services Financialchicanery "Abuser" industry growth - Software - Big pharma - Extraction - Finance Rise of secrecy jurisdictions
-

Limited developing country tax resources and skills Balkanized competing jurisdictions (vs. MNC solidarity on this issue) Global TJ resources
• Policy analysis, design, redesign Training, feedback

"Offshore" "Onshore"


experts"

Rise of "enabling
-

Accounting firms Law firms Major banks

Official support for "corpfriendly" standards

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67

Aggregate ITP Cost Estimates


Study
Simon Pak (2003-6)

Approach
• Goods trade misinvoicing Bilateral Customs data

Estimated Lost Tax Rev


"+$200 billion/ yr.
'II

i~I'(:alpUa!11 F~~gltrt!~1 COlLI ntry, 200-0.. 008, ,.,G FII IE:stii marte:s; by 2 (eu mu ~altiiveIN,Q,mii nalll US $IBii 1111 ilOrl1lS)

,s;400 •

~--------------------------------------------------------------------~~~~

.$l!.'H

s ns s i20
$iiJ6

~~~~~~==~-----------------------------------

Source: GFI (2011), JSH analysis

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GFI'S ESTIMATES OF "ILLICIT FINANCIAL FLOWS" FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES


( Current
Study GFI (612011) Focus LDCs (n=44) Period 1990·2008

us $Billions Aggregated Across Years)


+
2000·08 $33.6

Trade Misinvoicing
1990·2008 $126.3

Capital Flight
1990·2008 2000·08

Total "Illicit Flows"


1990·2008 2000·08

Yearly Average
1990·2008 2000·08 ~

$160
15.9*

$52
na na

$286
15.9*

$86
na na

$15.1
~

$9.5
na

$176
GFI (112011) All Dev Countries (n=217)
* Estimated for 15 countries with missing data

$302
na

$15.9
na

2000·2008

na

$3,477

na

$3,053

$6,530

$726

Source: GFI studies, JSH analysis

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TJN Inti 2011

70

Basic Concept -- Adjusted Partner Trade Measure

"Export Misinvoicing': "Import Misinvoicing":


Where:

LL ((X*ijt LL
(M*ijt-

(1 +CIFijt)

LLMWijt))

LL

(XWijt(1+CIFijt)))

X* = Country X's Reported FOB goods exports per commodity per trading partner at time t, in a common currency\ M* = Country X's Reported CIF goods imports per commodity per trading partner at time t, in a common currency XW= Sum of world's reported FOB goods exports per commodity per trading partner at time t , in a common currency MW=Country X's Reported CIF goods imports per commodity per trading partner at time t, in a common currency CIFjj1 = "normal trade costs," including customs, insurance and freight, for commodity j and trading partners j at time t

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71

~:~;'~~~';~: Iii
,~,;::, :,; ; C\ c
<to'

~~i ~~~

iii

~,<> ~~',~-~/

'"~~~·E:::-~-:J;~
._ ,,:~~,"
> ~

""":/~

/',> ~~

<to":" '>";,>--'-::<-:.><>_;:::_~

j~: ~~l~~)F2~ ~
", __<'1:.-:--;', :-~~ ,
<to
~~~~<~ ~<

!~:~'.~'..:'~ ~
=~~ ~~~ ~=~

$1~~

===::

~I~
$1_=

_=~ =~~

1~~

~~'!;~-~-

..> ~ ~~~ ~;;.~t_-~~_~~ .$"~>~~~~~-~_;.:;~>- 72

CONVENTIONAL MISINVOICING World


Exports Imports

<

>

<

>

Exports

Country X

Imports

(c)JSH/TJN 2012

73

EXPANDED MISINVOICING FRAMEWORK World


Goods Exports Goods Imports Traded Services

<

>

<

>

Goods Exports

Country X

Goods Imports

Traded Services

(c)JSH/TJN 2012

74

Key Issues - GFI approach

(c)JSH/TJN 2012

75

G FII i~'Tr,ade M~:s;iiln\toliiciilngm!IBV '[OIU Iiltlry~2,000",2.001 (I= $3,.4,8: trl 1111l1l) iio
l

(c)JSHI T IN Inti 2011

76

Revised Discrepancies, US- China Trade 2000-2009**


Chinese-U.S. BUateral Merchandise Trade Statistics 2000, 2004, 2006 (Values In Brmona of U.S. Dollars) Eastbound Westbound (Bound for China) Difference Ch:in.ese, Imports

(Bound for United: Stales) Ylear


Chinese Exports

U.S.
Imports

initial
Difference

as a %of
Imports

U.S.
Exports

Difference

Diffel'lenoe as %of
Imports

Revised
46.0
71.8

2000

52.1 125.0 203.5

100.0
, 96.7

$7.5 47.9 $23.536.5 $24.229'.3

22 .. 4
44.7

16.3 34.7 55.2

6.1 9.9 4.0

27.3 22.3

2004
2006

287.6

64.3

59.2

6.7

**Source: "Report on the Statistical Discrepancy (10/2009 MOC/PRC, USTR/DOC)

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GFI"CAPITAL FLiGHT" METRICS: FOCUS ON ENDOGENOUS FACTORS


(l:Nominal positive capital flight flows, 2000·2008. $US Billions) N Democracy" ("FuIl/Flawed")* Top Oil & Gas Exporters Diverified Economies SmalierLDCs 14 11 192 3 $174,7 $454,5 $166,9 $796,1 "Authoritari an "I" Hybrid"* 11 4 123 138 $1,880,3 $204,5 $172,5 $2 257,3
1

Total Dem% $2,055 $659,0 $339,4 9% 69% 49%

7
69 79

TOTAL 217 Source: GFI (2011), JSH analysis

$3,053,4 26%

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1. MEXICO CASE

Mexico

Misinvoicing Vs. Net FDI as a % of GDP, 1970-2011 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

-Misinvoicing

% -FDI

%
79

(c}JSH/TJN 2012

Mexico - Trend in "Real" Mispricing (Real$2000 $Billions, 1962-2011)

~IS2000
Oll:!rlrwoklnG ~1~20CO ui'tld er II''i'O Iorl'1 III

Source: UN Comtrade raw data (2012), JSH analysis

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III

_I

lsln _I! iil~un;~·


f

(Cumulative Total, 1962-2010; Real $2000 Billions)

ei!

Total

= $627.8

b,1962-10

1,

Source: JSH 2012 81

MEXICO
Real MX Export Mis-invoicing, 1962-2010, By Trading Partner

Canada China - Mainland Japan Other Asia Nes Korea Malaysia US Germany Italy Thailand Brazil France Philippines Singapore Spain Colombia UK Costa Rica Bahamas Australia India Chile Saudi Arabia Indonesia Russia

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

I Net = $182.4 Billion of I misinvoicing 104,07 75% China - HK 9,79 70/0 Israel 39% Neth Antilles 26,95 -70/0 -3,00 DRKorea 140/0 Zimbabwe 5,29 1,19 40/0 Cocos Islands (Aust) 17,72 68% Dom Repub 400/0 Palestine 9,92 460/0 Cuba 5,75 2,01 16% Cayman Islands 35% Switzerland 3,36 56% Panama 5,38 40/0 Gambia 0,36 2,55 29% Tajikstan 7,31 840/0 Bermuda 83% Not specified 6,69 190/0 Seychelles 1,36 130/0 Belize 0,82 910/0 Jamaica 5,61 650/0 Greenland 3,68 -23 010 -1,19 Uzbekistan 520/0 Haiti 2,39 45% Guinea - Bissau 1,98 18% Fiji 0,78 16% Kazahkstan 0,60
010

010

of

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

I misinvoicing -2010 0,18


-8,91 -10,98 -0,68 -2,05 -4,91 -4,92 -2,02 -3,26 -1,65 -4,82 -3,82 -0,00 -0,06 -1,17 -10,31 -0,00 -0,22 -0,42 -0,00 -0,01 -0,29 -0,19 0,00 0,07 92% 122%

120/0 420/0
100 %

1170/0
100 %

171

0/0

107 % 330 % 296%

00/0 60/0
123 % 1214 %

00/0 480/0
108%

00/0 40/0
132% 101 %

-2010
-41 %

Source: UN Comtrade data (2012), JSH analysis

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IIMPO'R15 elF HIS

EXllX)llinS HIS

FO'B

"lU.nd@:f1lnVloiclln!!t' (C-D)

210:11.10
Afgh.l;mls~;an AJlb"nlr,i31 AJlg€:,rl.a1 AJn;doi'ir.a1 AJl'IIgo!8i AJnltl'Qlua A2l!'1:rba~j.alrl AJ~:l';:rnli1na Australl'.al Austffla Ba'I'II8iflfhliI"S BahllC1llrn BElng!8id€:s I'll AJrmfmr.a1 BEI.rbadalJi BE!:lg~!lJm Bf!:lg~!lJm - I..!u~ Be,rmuda Bhu~an I8i Bnfsrn!8i Ba1:swBrn<l Br.arzll Bt:iliz.€: $3,335,1.52 $231, 'f'2 7, 3lL'D

210::11.10
$729,61'9 $6n,:5:55 $99,553,570' $23,464$17,803,!l.59' $1,614,,4;23 $i,~ltJ:6,lJl2 $1,766,.791.,.01'.2 $657 ,.1!5~,4g,.2 $39,062., 7'~3 $63,012.,77!5 $58,228,352 $2,066,209 $202,62.1 $19,30:5,6'97 $67.2,72.4,1.77 $2,165,767 $22,20Ii'l, $97,214f,2N $668,7:55 $3,7:B:1t,079,743 $92,il50',552

2.011.l0
$2/521,590 $L32,l i'3,74l0 ($23r4M) ($17,603,159) $2,103,395 $1,391,624 $48,.32:1,740' $604,718,704 $243,802,058 ($158 ..28.5,'632.) ($24,HO,477) ($2,056,209) $4,.1>1]4,.932 $2,053,4,31 $569,224,85,3 $0 $11'9,313 ($22,206) $29,864,,309' $7,902,725 $3'00,20'4 $35,1(15:8.,492 ($2 iIl,9Si,09 1) ($1,646,:8.21 )

$3,:92.7,81;B $2,:92.9,7316 $1,B17,114,812 $1,261, S69, 19 6 '$28.2, SM, rsi $4,72.7,143 $34,077,875 $4,367,5.53 $21,359',128

3% 46% 136%

$1,A41,949, 03 (!J

B:J,,~....

$127, 07;B,643 $6,571,48(!J $366,204 $3,816, 13:B,23 5 $'0,199'.465

??' B:rum:ll B'lJII!!Jl8irrl8i MY,8irnmar B'lJlmn;dl ~~Ial'us Cam'[}odR8i CaJm@,roorn

BVI

$16,856',9(!JO' $15,156

$354,9.:1.3 $i,437,563 $4/500 $62.9,:964 $15,517'

59%

($:1.54,913) $2,028,831 ($4,500) ($629,954) $.1Io,84li F383 $15,156

50% $S,:9Jl3 $2,464,.761 $IL:23,32;B $2,,1:3:5,078 $16,258. $iil63,4.!)!~,5al $4,i 95,90~,Oj'2 $0 $68,859' ($2,464,7'1iiIl) ($123,3.28 ) ($ 556, 142) ($16,256) $252,420,135 $2.,,679..287,79 :1!

1.2%

2. ZAMBIA
ZAMBIA - REAL MISINVOICING, 1966-2010 (Real $2000, $8.) Net

LL = $34.6

b.

.'~

~ = 9. 1 b

-s

rlrtd~l",

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84

ZAMBIA - REALTOTAL MISINVOICING, 1966-2010 (Real$2000; Net total = $34.6 billion) $ Canada $ Not specified $ China - Mainland $ Korea $ Saudi Arabia $ Japan $ Other Asia Nes $ UAE $ Kuwait $ Top 10 $

us

7,22 7,11 5,13 3,46 3,21 2,90 2,88 1,75 1,35 1,30 36,32 18,15 54,47

Switzerland Iran UK Singapore Neth Antilles China HK Dom Repub Panama Tanzania EI Salvador Top 10

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

-10,53 -2,02 -1,52 -0,90 -0,82 -0,71 -0,41 -0,35 -0,31 -0,29 -17,86 -1,94 -19,80

All Other Pos $ TOTALGROSS $

All Other Neg $ TOTAL GROSS $ $34.6 billion

TOTAL NET

Source: UN Comtrade data (2012), JSH analysis

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3. SWITZERLAND CASE
SWITZERLAND -- REAL GOODS MISINVOICING (1962-2011, India China Israel Germany Palestine Libya Netherlands Malaysia Japan Italy Ireland Saudi Arabia Turkey Nigeria Singapore Vietnam Finland Thailand Czech Algeria TOTAL -- TOP 20 ALL OTHER POSITIVES TOTAL GROSS $69,5 $68,9 $31,0 $19,4 $18,3 $13,4 $12,8 $11,1 $10,8 $9,9 $7,6 $7,3 $6,7 $6,6 $5,9 $5,5 $5,4 $5,4 $4,9 $4,9 $325,1 $56,3 $381,5 TOTAL NET Source: UN Comtrade data (2012), JSH analysis ($22,45) BY TRADING PARTNER Real $Billions) ($3,1) ($3,1) ($3,6) ($3,7) ($3,8) ($4,4) ($4,4) ($4,7) ($4,9) ($8,7) ($10,5) ($11,6) ($13,1) ($14,1) ($21,1) ($21,2) ($32,0) ($52,8) ($53,1) ($81,3) ($355,2) ($48,7) ($403,9)

Romania Bolivia Ghana Denmark Greece Canada Portugal Iraq Poland Austria Zambia Mexico "Not Specified" Spain South Africa Peru Kazahkstan USA France Russia TOTAL - TOP 20 ALL OTHER NEGATIVES

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4. "TRADE" IN INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

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COMPOSITION

- US NET SERVICE EXPORTS (2006-11, $mm)

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Bermuda Singapore Ireland Switzerland Cayman Islands

$16.2 $14.6 $45.4 $18.2 $7.4

$5.4 $.115 $.488 $.219 $1.123

Source: M. Sullivan, Tax Analysts, July 2010 testimony, US House +Ways Committee
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Grain exporters (2011-): Argentina Intellectual propert abuses: Google, Pfizer, GE, Cisco,

Growth of MNC Traded Services (US Example,


1986-2011)

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Apple - China "value chain"


• • • • • 20 mm Ipadsjyr @ $500 retail = $10 b. 65k US workers (35k in retail stores) 1.2 mm Chinese workers (Foxconn) $40jIpad = $800 mm to China $2.2 b royalties for IP, brand to offshore jurisdictions 3% tax rate w

• Total non-China gross margin marketing - royalties = $6 b

$9.2 b - sales and

• Total effective tax on non-COGS margin to US IRS

= < 100/0,

mainly

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Summary -- ITP
• Measuring ITP abuse: a critical part of "The 'Price of Offshore" policy agenda • We can't rely only on existing (aggregate) estimates • Examples - Mexico, Zambia, Switzerland, etc. - show that disaggregating has many advantages
- Reveals new forms of ITP abuse - Highlights growing role of of secrecy jurisdictions abuse - Highlights MNC abuse of traded service in ITP

• This needs to be a TIN research priority

Top Marginal Corporate Income Tax Rate 1981-2010 (Tax Policy Center)
60% 50% Canada France Germany Japan
UK US

cu ...,
~

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4..«) ~


"YO) "YO) "YO) "YO) "YO)

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fa

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Year

A1Ulsfmatl~a 3lfl5 [pe{rO:l{Il t UK 1-l.1'


IJJ 1m ~ tecjJ S1tate s lban;,adi!iJ

~3.4 [pewrent

~4.5;

2009

8.:2 pe{r[~rnt

N iUllfW,i!I¥

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II

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2.n4- IlJ!elliCel'i1l~ ::HlO11

Top m:8irrg ~llliall ~1'i11(]ome' rsras tax


,estat,e' tax {wCllgle':i.~ :!j::a~,@lrrli,es~. B'it'.c.} 9-4!.O IlJ!elrO!:liFllt. ] 94;5;

@11'lI

o~d~n31Iry ~1I11(]Ome'

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IP-"""'''''''* -""I"'.""'II~ 2m! n

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n !6i~JIe.rrnll1lt

20@7

Country Group

Populatio n (2009) (Billions)

Per Capita Income (PPPAdjusted' 09)

Gov Revenue X Grants

Income Taxes

Sales Taxes

Payroll Taxes

Taxes on Inti Trade

Other Taxes

Other Gov Revenue

Grants

26.1% EU US China 1.331 $6828 .500 $31384 35.2% 17.9% 9.5%

6.6% 7.4% 9.5% 2.1% 4.%6

7.3% 11.3%

6.2% 6.1%

Income Low Income .846 $1205 11.5% .1% 2.3% 0% 7.0% 1.5% .6% 9.6%

6.775

Summary

Tl!J~~

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102

Triangulating on the offshore black hole ....


Unrecorded Capital Flows and Stocks
( 139/154 developing countries)

lilt is capitalism that is truly radical. -- Brecht


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