Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DECEMBER $TR
2004
BIS Non-Bank Offshore Deposits Liquidity Ratio2
>Minimum3 >Max (MLlCG Ave)4 3.5 3.0 3.0 5.0 $4.05
2005
$4.68 3.0 4.9
2006
$5.97 3.0 4.6
2007
$7.43 3.0 4.5
2008
$6.93 3.0 3.6
2009
$6.59 3.0
2010
$7.01
3.8
Total Financial Assets >Minimum $10.4 >Max (MLlCG Ave) Est Average
$8.9 $9.7 $12.1 $20.2 $16.2 $14.0 $22.9 $18.5 $17.9 $27.5 $22.7 $22.3 $33.4 $27.9 $20.8 $24.9 $22.9 $19.8 $24.7 $22.2
$26.3
© JSH/TJN 2012
2 3
4
Using TIN's very conservative assumption for the liquidity ratio, based on the 2004 McKinsey study
Using ML/CapGemini's average portfolio allocation for HNWls, 2004-2010
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61
(1/2) Dec-10
MktOfo 42.2%
26.2% 31.6%
MktOfo 45.5%
28.8% 25.7%
$6,182 $ 12,066.4
$1,789.0 $932.9 $840.0 $643.9 $390.0 $367.5 $338.0 $300.0 $297.0 $284.0 $270.0 $251.0 $238.3 $225.0 $218.4 $183.0 $181.0 $171.0 $166.0 $154.0
$5,391.3
$1,349.2 $469.2 $166.0 $108.5 $183.0 $180.9 $158.0 $78.0 $165.0 $187.0 $150.0 $138.0 $135.3 $30.2 $150.8 $49.4 $46.8 $114.1 $82.6 $111.5
100% $8,050.1
$1,627.6 $770.1 $220.5 $433.8 $250.0 $464.2 $293.0 $187.3 $365.0 $266.0 $236.6 $202.5 $230.0 $207.1 $199.1 $65.0 $160.2 $215.2 $84.0 $141.5
100%
15.8%
5.8% 14.7% 38.3% 42.8% 16.3% 15.2% 16.4% 30.9% 12.5% 8.7% 12.5% 12.7% 12.0% 49.4% 7.7% 29.9% 31.1% 8.4% 15.0% 6.7%
13
38 10 32 34 16 23 17
13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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63
-----I
(2/2)
$5,391.3 100% $8,050.1 Top 50 - Total $123.0 $130.1 21 Lombard Odier $111.4 $131.8 22 Banco Santander $66.3 $109.1 23 Societe General $56.8 $86.5 24 ING Group $71.3 $87.7 25 Bk of Montreal 'II $47.1 $88.9 26 BP Edmund de Rothchild $52.8 $91.2 27 LGT $26.0 $93.3 28 EFG Inti $46.4 $68.2 29 Raiffesen Banking Group 'II $39.7 $82.8 BSI Bank 30 $22.2 $42.9 31 RBC $61.0 $82.4 32 UBP $293.7 $35.0 Citigroup* 33 $27.3 $46.4 34 Bank Sarasin $83.2 $69.0 KBC/KBL 35 $27.4 $43.6 36 MM Warburg $21.8 $30.8 37 Standard Chartered $41.3 $51.0 RBSjCoutts 38 $17.9 $30.1 Lloyds TSB 39 'II $19.1 $30.6 40 Berenburg Bank $15.8 $24.6 41 Vontobel AG $28.3 $26.2 42 SEB $15.9 $23.3 43 Luzerner Cantonal $22.0 $22.9 44 Schroders $6.0 $23.0 OCBC (Sing) 45 VP Bank $16.1 $18.5 46 $10.0 $15.0 47 Bankhause Lampe $16.0 $24.1 48 Wegelin $8.0 $10.0 49 Reuscheul &Co $5.3 $6.7 DZ Privatebank 50 Bank financial statements, industry interviews, JSH analysis
II
Dec-10 $6,182
51.2%
20.0% 2005-2010 AAGR% 15.8% 4.6% 6.1% 11.1% 14.1% 7.8% 16.0% 11.7% 28.7% 12.9% 16.3% 27.5% 2.6% -29.8% 12.7% -10.2% 12.0% 16.1% 1.6% 14.4% 12.2% 14.9% 1.2% 11.9% 2.7% 30.1% 6.4% 14.8% -2.6% 6.6% 8.6%
100%
12,066.4
$153.9 $150.0 $112.5 $110.0 $103.8 $99.1 $92.0 $91.7 $85.0 $84.5 $75.0 $69.3 $50.0 $49.6 $48.6 $48.2 $46.0 $44.7 $35.0 $34.1 $31.6 $30.0 $27.8 $25.1 $22.4 $22.0 $20.0 $14.0 $11.0 $8.0 © JSH/ TJN Inti 2012
Limited developing country tax resources and skills Balkanized competing jurisdictions (vs. MNC solidarity on this issue) Global TJ resources
• Policy analysis, design, redesign Training, feedback
"Offshore" "Onshore"
•
experts"
Rise of "enabling
-
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
67
Approach
• Goods trade misinvoicing Bilateral Customs data
i~I'(:alpUa!11 F~~gltrt!~1 COlLI ntry, 200-0.. 008, ,.,G FII IE:stii marte:s; by 2 (eu mu ~altiiveIN,Q,mii nalll US $IBii 1111 ilOrl1lS)
,s;400 •
~--------------------------------------------------------------------~~~~
.$l!.'H
s ns s i20
$iiJ6
~~~~~~==~-----------------------------------
69
Trade Misinvoicing
1990·2008 $126.3
Capital Flight
1990·2008 2000·08
Yearly Average
1990·2008 2000·08 ~
$160
15.9*
$52
na na
$286
15.9*
$86
na na
$15.1
~
$9.5
na
$176
GFI (112011) All Dev Countries (n=217)
* Estimated for 15 countries with missing data
$302
na
$15.9
na
2000·2008
na
$3,477
na
$3,053
$6,530
$726
(c)JSH/
70
LL ((X*ijt LL
(M*ijt-
(1 +CIFijt)
LLMWijt))
LL
(XWijt(1+CIFijt)))
X* = Country X's Reported FOB goods exports per commodity per trading partner at time t, in a common currency\ M* = Country X's Reported CIF goods imports per commodity per trading partner at time t, in a common currency XW= Sum of world's reported FOB goods exports per commodity per trading partner at time t , in a common currency MW=Country X's Reported CIF goods imports per commodity per trading partner at time t, in a common currency CIFjj1 = "normal trade costs," including customs, insurance and freight, for commodity j and trading partners j at time t
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
71
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~~'!;~-~-
<
>
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Exports
Country X
Imports
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
73
<
>
<
>
Goods Exports
Country X
Goods Imports
Traded Services
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
74
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
75
G FII i~'Tr,ade M~:s;iiln\toliiciilngm!IBV '[OIU Iiltlry~2,000",2.001 (I= $3,.4,8: trl 1111l1l) iio
l
76
U.S.
Imports
initial
Difference
as a %of
Imports
U.S.
Exports
Difference
Diffel'lenoe as %of
Imports
Revised
46.0
71.8
2000
100.0
, 96.7
22 .. 4
44.7
27.3 22.3
2004
2006
287.6
64.3
59.2
6.7
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
77
7
69 79
$3,053,4 26%
78
1. MEXICO CASE
Mexico
Misinvoicing Vs. Net FDI as a % of GDP, 1970-2011 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
-Misinvoicing
% -FDI
%
79
(c}JSH/TJN 2012
~IS2000
Oll:!rlrwoklnG ~1~20CO ui'tld er II''i'O Iorl'1 III
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80
III
_I
ei!
Total
= $627.8
b,1962-10
1,
MEXICO
Real MX Export Mis-invoicing, 1962-2010, By Trading Partner
Canada China - Mainland Japan Other Asia Nes Korea Malaysia US Germany Italy Thailand Brazil France Philippines Singapore Spain Colombia UK Costa Rica Bahamas Australia India Chile Saudi Arabia Indonesia Russia
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
I Net = $182.4 Billion of I misinvoicing 104,07 75% China - HK 9,79 70/0 Israel 39% Neth Antilles 26,95 -70/0 -3,00 DRKorea 140/0 Zimbabwe 5,29 1,19 40/0 Cocos Islands (Aust) 17,72 68% Dom Repub 400/0 Palestine 9,92 460/0 Cuba 5,75 2,01 16% Cayman Islands 35% Switzerland 3,36 56% Panama 5,38 40/0 Gambia 0,36 2,55 29% Tajikstan 7,31 840/0 Bermuda 83% Not specified 6,69 190/0 Seychelles 1,36 130/0 Belize 0,82 910/0 Jamaica 5,61 650/0 Greenland 3,68 -23 010 -1,19 Uzbekistan 520/0 Haiti 2,39 45% Guinea - Bissau 1,98 18% Fiji 0,78 16% Kazahkstan 0,60
010
010
of
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
120/0 420/0
100 %
1170/0
100 %
171
0/0
00/0 60/0
123 % 1214 %
00/0 480/0
108%
00/0 40/0
132% 101 %
-2010
-41 %
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EXllX)llinS HIS
FO'B
"lU.nd@:f1lnVloiclln!!t' (C-D)
210:11.10
Afgh.l;mls~;an AJlb"nlr,i31 AJlg€:,rl.a1 AJn;doi'ir.a1 AJl'IIgo!8i AJnltl'Qlua A2l!'1:rba~j.alrl AJ~:l';:rnli1na Australl'.al Austffla Ba'I'II8iflfhliI"S BahllC1llrn BElng!8id€:s I'll AJrmfmr.a1 BEI.rbadalJi BE!:lg~!lJm Bf!:lg~!lJm - I..!u~ Be,rmuda Bhu~an I8i Bnfsrn!8i Ba1:swBrn<l Br.arzll Bt:iliz.€: $3,335,1.52 $231, 'f'2 7, 3lL'D
210::11.10
$729,61'9 $6n,:5:55 $99,553,570' $23,464$17,803,!l.59' $1,614,,4;23 $i,~ltJ:6,lJl2 $1,766,.791.,.01'.2 $657 ,.1!5~,4g,.2 $39,062., 7'~3 $63,012.,77!5 $58,228,352 $2,066,209 $202,62.1 $19,30:5,6'97 $67.2,72.4,1.77 $2,165,767 $22,20Ii'l, $97,214f,2N $668,7:55 $3,7:B:1t,079,743 $92,il50',552
2.011.l0
$2/521,590 $L32,l i'3,74l0 ($23r4M) ($17,603,159) $2,103,395 $1,391,624 $48,.32:1,740' $604,718,704 $243,802,058 ($158 ..28.5,'632.) ($24,HO,477) ($2,056,209) $4,.1>1]4,.932 $2,053,4,31 $569,224,85,3 $0 $11'9,313 ($22,206) $29,864,,309' $7,902,725 $3'00,20'4 $35,1(15:8.,492 ($2 iIl,9Si,09 1) ($1,646,:8.21 )
$3,:92.7,81;B $2,:92.9,7316 $1,B17,114,812 $1,261, S69, 19 6 '$28.2, SM, rsi $4,72.7,143 $34,077,875 $4,367,5.53 $21,359',128
3% 46% 136%
$1,A41,949, 03 (!J
B:J,,~....
BVI
$16,856',9(!JO' $15,156
59%
50% $S,:9Jl3 $2,464,.761 $IL:23,32;B $2,,1:3:5,078 $16,258. $iil63,4.!)!~,5al $4,i 95,90~,Oj'2 $0 $68,859' ($2,464,7'1iiIl) ($123,3.28 ) ($ 556, 142) ($16,256) $252,420,135 $2.,,679..287,79 :1!
1.2%
2. ZAMBIA
ZAMBIA - REAL MISINVOICING, 1966-2010 (Real $2000, $8.) Net
LL = $34.6
b.
.'~
~ = 9. 1 b
-s
rlrtd~l",
(c)JSH/TJN 2012
84
ZAMBIA - REALTOTAL MISINVOICING, 1966-2010 (Real$2000; Net total = $34.6 billion) $ Canada $ Not specified $ China - Mainland $ Korea $ Saudi Arabia $ Japan $ Other Asia Nes $ UAE $ Kuwait $ Top 10 $
us
7,22 7,11 5,13 3,46 3,21 2,90 2,88 1,75 1,35 1,30 36,32 18,15 54,47
Switzerland Iran UK Singapore Neth Antilles China HK Dom Repub Panama Tanzania EI Salvador Top 10
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
-10,53 -2,02 -1,52 -0,90 -0,82 -0,71 -0,41 -0,35 -0,31 -0,29 -17,86 -1,94 -19,80
TOTAL NET
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3. SWITZERLAND CASE
SWITZERLAND -- REAL GOODS MISINVOICING (1962-2011, India China Israel Germany Palestine Libya Netherlands Malaysia Japan Italy Ireland Saudi Arabia Turkey Nigeria Singapore Vietnam Finland Thailand Czech Algeria TOTAL -- TOP 20 ALL OTHER POSITIVES TOTAL GROSS $69,5 $68,9 $31,0 $19,4 $18,3 $13,4 $12,8 $11,1 $10,8 $9,9 $7,6 $7,3 $6,7 $6,6 $5,9 $5,5 $5,4 $5,4 $4,9 $4,9 $325,1 $56,3 $381,5 TOTAL NET Source: UN Comtrade data (2012), JSH analysis ($22,45) BY TRADING PARTNER Real $Billions) ($3,1) ($3,1) ($3,6) ($3,7) ($3,8) ($4,4) ($4,4) ($4,7) ($4,9) ($8,7) ($10,5) ($11,6) ($13,1) ($14,1) ($21,1) ($21,2) ($32,0) ($52,8) ($53,1) ($81,3) ($355,2) ($48,7) ($403,9)
Romania Bolivia Ghana Denmark Greece Canada Portugal Iraq Poland Austria Zambia Mexico "Not Specified" Spain South Africa Peru Kazahkstan USA France Russia TOTAL - TOP 20 ALL OTHER NEGATIVES
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COMPOSITION
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Source: M. Sullivan, Tax Analysts, July 2010 testimony, US House +Ways Committee
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Grain exporters (2011-): Argentina Intellectual propert abuses: Google, Pfizer, GE, Cisco,
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= < 100/0,
mainly
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Summary -- ITP
• Measuring ITP abuse: a critical part of "The 'Price of Offshore" policy agenda • We can't rely only on existing (aggregate) estimates • Examples - Mexico, Zambia, Switzerland, etc. - show that disaggregating has many advantages
- Reveals new forms of ITP abuse - Highlights growing role of of secrecy jurisdictions abuse - Highlights MNC abuse of traded service in ITP
Top Marginal Corporate Income Tax Rate 1981-2010 (Tax Policy Center)
60% 50% Canada France Germany Japan
UK US
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Income Taxes
Sales Taxes
Payroll Taxes
Other Taxes
Grants
7.3% 11.3%
6.2% 6.1%
Income Low Income .846 $1205 11.5% .1% 2.3% 0% 7.0% 1.5% .6% 9.6%
6.775
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102