Khng hong ti chnh

Bi 5
2005

Khng hong: phn chia theo

i tng
Hng ha
Nng sn: c ph, cotton, ng
Nhin liu: xng du

Ti sn
Kim loi qu (vng)
Bt ng sn (u c bong bng)
Tin t

T chc
Doanh nghip
Ngn hng

Khng hong ti chnh

Khng hong tin t
Mehico(1994), cc nc Chu u (1992,1993)

Khng hong ngn hng

Mi quan h tn dng ch nh (tm l li ca
nh u t nc ngoi v trong nc), u t
ri ro, mt kh nng chi tr doanh nghip, hnh
ng tm l by n v thng tin bt cn
xng. H qu suy gim v mt kh nng thanh
ton ca ngn hng.
Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn ca khng
hong cc nuc Chu (1997)
Khng hong kp
Khng hong tin t v ngn hng xy ra ng

Khng hong tin t

M hnh th h 1
Paul Krugman (1979)
Flood & Garber (1984)
Cc gi nh ca m hnh
Small open economy
Thng tin hon ho
Hai loi ti sn ti chnh

Khng hong th h 1 cho rng nguyn nhn

kinh t ch yu ca khng hong tin t l thm
ht ngn sch, ti tr bng lm pht tin n
mt gi k vng ng ni t trong mt c ch t
gi c nh.

Khng hong tin t

M hnh th h 1
Thm ht
ngn sch

Ti tr
bng pht hnh
thm tin

Sc p ln t
gi c nh

Xut pht im
Cc chnh sch v
m khng bn
vng
T gi hi oi c
nh

NHTW bn
d tr ngoi t
h tr t gi

D tr
suy gim

Tn cng
u c

Khng hong
tin t

Khng hong tin t: l thuyt

th h th 2
Khng hong tin t theo gii thch Krugman l
trng hp th ni t gi khi d tr cn kit
L thuyt th h th hai cho rng vic th ni t
gi cn do chnh ph theo ui nhng mc tiu
v m khc cho d d tr ngoi hi can thip.
M hnh Obsfeld(1994):li ch v chi ph t
chnh ph
Li ch: bo v c uy tn chnh ph trong di
hn
Chi ph: Li sut tng, t gi hi oi thc bt li
cho xut khu n suy thoi v nh hng n
khu vc u t v h thng ngn hng.

Yu t k vng nh u c
Nh u c cng c hai la chn
u c tn cng ng ni t khi d on rng
chnh ph s tn km nhiu chi ph bo v t
gi c nh v cui cng phi th ni t gi. Nh
vy cc nh u c s tn cng khi th trng
k vng chnh ph th ni t gi.
Khng u c tn cng khi ngh rng chnh ph
s bo v t gi bng tt c mi cch.
im then cht ca m hnh l khng hong c
th mang tnh t pht sinh v chnh k vng
ca cc nh u c.

Khng hong tin t

M hnh th h 2
K vng th trng
CP c th ri b t gi c
nh thc hin chnh sch
khc (nh gim tht nghip)
Cc nh u c
Tn cng
ng ni t

K vng xoay
vng

Tn cng xy ra to
k vng ng ni t
c th ph gi v
lm tng li sut

Khng hong xy ra khi chnh ph th

ni t gi, khng phi do yu t kinh t
cn bn, m do yu t k vng t thn
t pha th trng.

Chnh ph
Thy li sut tng ln,
gy nh hng xu n
tng trng v tnh
trng tht nghip nn
th ni t gi

Khng hong ti chnh M hnh th h 3

H thng ti chnh ni a
Tp trung vo ngn hng
Gim st yu km
Tm l li

Dng vn nc
ngoi chy vo
N mnh gi ngoi t v
k hn ngn ra tng

Phn b vn sai lch

Chnh sch kinh t

v m
T gi hi oi c nh

Tnh hnh kinh t

v m

u t qu mc
Bong bng gi ti sn
Tham nhng

T gi hi oi thc b
nng gi
Thm ht thng mi
gia tng

Tnh hnh ti chnh

T l n kh i cao
Mt cn xng v k hn
gia ti sn n v ti
sn c

Khng
hong

Bc tranh ti chnh ng
trc v sau khng hong

Chng 1
C tht iu thn k

ng [Nam] ?

Tng trng kinh t 1991 - 1996

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Thailand

7.0

7.1

8.2

8.6

8.7

6.7

Malaysia

8.7

8.5

8.3

9.2

9.6

8.2

Indonesia

7.0

6.5

6.5

7.3

8.1

7.8

-0.6

0.3

2.1

5.3

5.7

5.8

9.1

5.1

5.8

8.4

9.0

7.1

Philippines
Korea

Tng s dn (triu ngi)

T l ngho ng gim mnh

528
1,285

717
346

1975
1

1995
2
Ngho

Khng ngho

Ngun: WB 1997, iu k diu ca mi ngi?

Mi ngi u lc quan
Dng vn quc t chy vo ng (t USD)
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

24,8

29,0

31,8

36,1

74,2

65,8

u t trc tip rng

6,2

7,3

7,6

8,8

7,5

8,4

u t chng khon rng

3,2

6,4

17,2

9,9

17,4

20,3

Vay th.mi & u t khc

15,4

15,3

7,0

17,4

49,2

37,1

4,4

2,0

0,6

0,3

0,7

-0,4

Vn t nhn rng

Vin tr chnh thc rng

Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 5/1998 v 3/2000.

Vn cho vay ca cc ngn hng quc t

vo cui nm 1996 (t USD)
Hn Quc

Ngn hng
M
9,4

Ngn hng Ngn hng

Nht
EU
24,3
33,8

Tng vn
vay quc t
100,0

Thi Lan

5,0

37,5

19,2

70,2

Malaysia

2,3

8,2

9,2

22,2

Indonesia

5,3

22,0

21,0

55,5

Philippines

3,9

1,6

6,3

13,3

Hng Kng

8,7

87,5

86,2

207,2

Singapore

5,7

58,8

102,9

189,3

i Loan

3,2

2,7

12,7

22,4

Trung Quc

2,7

17,8

26,0

55,0

Vit Nam

0,2

0,2

1,0

1,5

Tng cng

46,4

260,6

318,3

736,6

Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 12/1997.

Nhng bc tranh khng ch ton

mu sng

Nu vn bc mn thn k ny ln
th chng ta s thy nhng g?

Thm ht ti khon vng lai (% GDP)

1994

1995

1996

Hn Quc

-0,96

-1,74

-4,42

Thi Lan

-5,59

-8,05

-8,05

Malaysia

-6,07

-9,73

-4,42

Indonesia

-1,58

-3,18

-3,37

Philippines

-4,60

-2,67

-4,77

Ngun: WB, World Development Indicators 2002 v ADB.

Gi hng xut khu ca ng gim

mnh hn so vi cc khu vc khc

Nht

Cc nc
c.nghip

Cc nc mi CN
ha chu

Cc nc km
pht trin

Ngun: Ly t NHTG, East Asia The Road to Recovery, 1998.

Ch s t gi hi oi vi USD

5/1/1996=100

Malaysia

Singapore

Indonesia

Hng Kng

Hn Quc

Philippines
Thi Lan

Nguon: IMF, World Economic outlook, 12/1997.

i Loan

N tai chnh cua khu vc t nhan

so vi GDP (%)
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Hn Quc

103.1

110.7

121.3

128.8

133.5

140.9

Thi Lan

88.6

98.4

110.8

128.1

142.0

141.9

Nguon: Radelet va Sachs (1998).

N ngan han vao quy II nam 1997

N ngn hn nc
ngoi (t USD)

D tr ngoi t
(t USD)

T l n ngn hn
so vi d tr

Hn Quc

70,18

34,07

2,06

Thi Lan

45,57

31,36

1,45

Indonesia

34,66

20,34

1,70

Malaysia

16,27

26,59

0,61

8,29

9,78

0,85

Philippines

Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 1999.

N nc ngoi ca mt s nc
vo nm 1997
N nc
ngoi
(t UDS)

T l thanh
ton li
sut n (%)

% ca
GDP

D tr ngoi
t (t USD)

Thailand

97.0

61.0

27.0

15.6

Indonesia

129.0

60.9

19.3

29.9

Malaysia

31.0

31.2

21.7

6.1

Korea

137.4

28.4

27.7

11.4

Ty le gia tr cho vay bat ong san va cong nghiep cua

cac cong ty tai chnh Thai Lan (%)
30

Bat ong san

25
20
15

Cong nghiep che bien

10
5
87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

Nguon: Lay t Marcus Miller va Pongsak Luangaram (1998).

95

96

Hiu qu u t
Tng trng
GDP (9196)

T trng u
t/GDP (%)

Ch s ICOR

Thailand

7.72

40

5.22

Indonesia

7.2

33.1

4.65

Malaysia

8.75

37.4

4.56

Korea

7.42

39.1

5.27

Chng 2
V iu g phi n

n!

Dng vn quc t chy ra khi ng

(t USD)
1996

1997

1998

1999

65,8

-20,4

-25,6

-24,6

8,4

10,3

8,6

10,2

u t chng khon rng

20,3

12,9

-6,0

6,3

Vay thng mi v u t khc

37,1

-43,6

-28,2

-41,1

-0,4

17,9

19,7

-4,7

Vn t nhn rng
u t trc tip rng

Vin tr chnh thc rng

Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 5/1998 v 3/2000.

Ch s gi c phiu
5/1/1996=100
Hng Kng

Philippines

Indonesia

Thi Lan

i
Loan

Singapore

Malaysia

Nguon: IMF, World Economic outlook, 12/1997.

Hn
Quc

Tng trng GDP (%/nm)

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Hn Quc

8,92

6,75

5,01

-6,69

10,89

8,81

Thi Lan

9,31

5,88

-1,45 -10,77

4,22

4,31

Malaysia

9,83

10,00

-7,36

6,08

8,30

Indonesia

8,40

7,64

4,70 -13,13

0,85

4,77

Philippines

4,68

5,85

5,19

-0,58

3,40

4,01

Trung Quc

10,53

9,58

8,84

7,80

7,05

7,94

9,54

9,34

8,15

5,80

4,80

5,50

Vit Nam

7,32

Ngun: WB, World Development Indicators 2002 .

Khng hong ti chnh chuyn thnh

khng hong kinh t - x hi

Lm pht gia tng

Tin lng thc t gim
Tht nghip gia tng
Ngun tn dng cn kit

Trong khi nn kinh t v ton x hi cha c

chun b ng ph vi tnh hung t hi ny

Mt s nguyn nhn ch yu gy nn
khng hong
Thm ht ti khon vng lai ln, c b p bi cc khon vay
ngn hn nguy c bay vn khi c s c, c bit khi ti khon
vn c t do ha.
S pht trin ca th trng ti chnh v hi nhp vi th trng
ton cu chm hn so vi nhng quy nh v th ch ni a ri
ro k hn, c bit khi ng tin b ph gi t ngt.
Doanh nghip, v khng c ngun ti chnh no khc, vay ch yu
t h thng ngn hng (c ni a v quc t) m rng hot
ng b nh hng ln khi c bin ng v li sut v t gi
Khi nhng yu km ni ti ny chu sc p ca cc c sc bn
ngoi v tm l by n s d dng dn ti khng hong ti chnh

Mt s bi hc kinh nghim
Cn xy dng h thng th ch (lut v quy nh) tt
cng nh cn mt nng lc iu hnh v gim st tt
i vi h thng ti chnh m bo hiu qu ca n
Cn tn trng tnh minh bch v trch nhim i vi cc
hot ng ti chnh v ca qun l nh nc i vi h
thng ti chnh v doanh nghip
Cn c s phi hp iu phi cc hot ng ti chnh
ton cu v khu vc mt mc nht nh.

Chng 3
Bc tranh thi k hu khng hong

Tng trng kinh t quay tr li ng ,

nhng vn cn thp hn so vi trc

Ngun: WB, World Development Indicators 2004

 nhng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi

vn cha quay li mc t c nm 1996

Thm ht ti khon vng lai (% GDP)

Ghi ch: Ch s c mu mang du m

Ngun: WB, World Development Indicators 2002 v ADB.

Thay i t gi hi oi so vi USD

Ghi ch: Ch s c mu l ca cc nc chu khng hong nng n nht

Nguy c vn cn
Chnh sch kinh t yu km: chnh sch v m khng
hp l, tr hon trong vic ti c cu khu vc ti chnh v
doanh nghip, v n ca khu vc cng khng bn vng

Nguy c vn cn
Cc c sc kinh t bn ngoi s nh hng ln ti
qu trnh hi phc:
- Nn kinh t M, mt ng lc quan trng ca s phc
hi ca cc nc ng , cng khng tht n nh (th
trng chng khon tht thng, thm ht ngn sch,
thm ht ti khon vng lai, tng trng khng n nh
v.v.)
- Tng t nh vy, c mt s lo ngi v s phc hi v
n nh ca nn kinh t Nht Bn
- Gi du la tng cao v duy tr trong mt thi gian
tng i di cng l mt tr ngi cho qu trnh phc
hi

Nguy c vn cn
Nguy c bt n v chnh tr cng l mt iu ng lo
ngi:
- C nhng du hiu ngy cng tng v s chia r chnh
tr gia cc ng phi v xung t vng Indonesia

- Bo lc cng tr li Philippines
- Xung t tn gio v sc tc Thi Lan
- Khng hong ti chnh dn ti s bt mn v x hi l
mt nguyn nhn tim tng gy nn bt n nh v chnh
tr