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time intervals. Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of model to predict future values based on previously observed values. A Times Series Table consists of time period and variable. Variable may be GDP, Sales Volume, Profit etc and Time may be year, quarter, days etc. Objectives of Time Series Analysis 1. 2. 3. 4. Forecasting Trend analysis( Growth Rate/ event) Business Cycle Impact of seasonal Variation
Trend Analysis: The equation for the linear trend is
y = b0 + b1x ( First Degree Linear) where
b0= intercept b1= slope of equation if X be the time period ( X=1,2,3….) and ̅ be the Arithmetic mean (=∑ /n) then x = X - ̅ (If total number of years is odd) x =2 ( X - ̅ ) (If total number of years is even)
Forecasting Estimated value of y is given by ̂ = b 0 + b 1x .