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US Offshore Rigs Next Wave of Consolidation
US Offshore Rigs Next Wave of Consolidation
7 April 2011
U.S. OIL SERVICES & DRILLING Offshore Rigs: Is the Next Wave of Consolidation on the Horizon?
Ordering Continues Unabated: The new rig construction cycle that began during the fourth quarter of 2010 continues unabated. Since our January update, an additional 19 jackups and 16 floaters have been ordered, bringing the total number of units ordered since the beginning of the cycle to 37 jackups and 28 floaters. Companies have also secured options to build an incremental 26 jackups and 15 floaters, the majority of which we expect to be exercised. Most of the options must be exercised in the next nine to 12 months. For those companies that have mostly shunned the newbuild cycle thus far, consolidation may be the only near-term option for growth or to replace lost earnings power as shipyard slots at established yards have quickly filled. We believe another round of rig company consolidation is highly likely. In addition, some of the major rig operators are likely to divest older assets in the near-term. Newbuild Prices Moving Higher; Shipyard Slots Filling Up: The flurry of recent newbuild rig orders and concerns around shipyard availability have resulted in a tightening of capacity for many traditional shipyards. We believe the majority of slots for deliveries through 2013 are now full. We also believe floater capacity for 2014 at the established yards is now mostly sold out due to recent orders and options. Rig construction costs are also trending higher which is making priced options more valuable. We believe cost increases are primarily due to rising steel prices and price increases for rig equipment. Additional Rig Company Consolidation Likely As Newbuilds Become Less of an Option: Limited near-term shipyard availability and rising construction costs could result in additional rig company consolidation. We believe the traditional drillers are continuing to have difficulty buying one-off assets, which most had expected to become distressed during the downturn, particularly newbuild floaters, and we expect that several new offshore rig companies have likely emerged as attractive acquisition candidates. Some smaller traditional drillers may also be candidates. In our view, a remaking of the offshore rig industry is underway. NOV Remains Our Favorite: We continue to believe that the best way to be positioned for the ongoing new rig construction cycle is through the major equipment providers National Oilwell Varco, Cameron International, Aker Solutions and, to a lesser extent, Rowan Companies (through LTI). For the offshore drillers, we prefer those companies which have premium fleets and are adding to earnings power with newbuilds. Our two favorite offshore drillers are Ensco Plc and Rowan Companies.
Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 8.
INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S. Oil Services & Drilling 1-POSITIVE Unchanged U.S. Oil Services & Drilling James C. West 1.212.526.8796 james.west1@barcap.com BCI, New York Anthony Walker 1.312.609.8183 anthony.walker@barcap.com BCI, New York European Oil Services & Drilling Mick Pickup +44 (0)20 3134 6695 mick.pickup@barcap.com Barclays Capital, London Tom Ackermans +44 (0)20 7773 4457 tom.ackermans@barcap.com Barclays Capital, London
CONTENTS
Rig Ordering Cycle Continues Unabated............................................................................................... 3 Newbuild Prices Ticking Higher; Shipyard Availability Declining .................................................... 5 Further Rig Company Consolidation Likely .......................................................................................... 5 Rig Market Bifurcation Continues........................................................................................................... 6 NOV Raising Prices; Taking Share in BOPs........................................................................................... 7
FIGURES
Figure 1: Current Cycle Floater Orders .................................................................................................. 3 Figure 2: Current Cycle Jackup Orders................................................................................................... 3 Figure 3: Current Cycle Shipyard Options............................................................................................. 4 Figure 4: Noble Corporation Recent Newbuild Construction Costs................................................ 5 Figure 5: Historical Offshore Rig Orders vs. Oil Prices (WTI) ........................................................... 6 Figure 6: Recent Offshore Rig Company Consolidation Activity ..................................................... 6
7 April 2011
595,000,000 595,000,000
GustoMSC P10000 Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung GustoMSC P10000 Samsung 12000 Samsung 12000 Sevan Drilling Sevan 650 Sevan Drilling Sevan 650 Samsung 12000 Samsung 12000
600,000,000 590,000,000 605,000,000 605,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000 590,000,000 662,400,000 662,400,000 662,400,000 662,400,000 662,400,000 662,400,000 662,400,000 615,000,000 550,000,000 550,000,000 525,000,000 525,000,000 650,000,000 650,000,000
Shell
220,000,000 220,000,000 180,000,000 190,000,000 180,000,000 180,000,000 231,000,000 231,000,000 230,000,000 230,000,000 500,000,000 500,000,000 200,000,000 200,000,000 160,000,000 195,000,000 210,000,000 530,000,000 235,000,000 235,000,000 180,000,000 209,000,000 209,000,000
Companies have also secured options to build an incremental 26 jackups and 15 floaters, the majority of which we expect to be exercised. Most of the options must be exercised in the next nine to 12 months. Given declining shipyard availability for new rig orders, we believe existing options held by the major offshore rig companies are becoming increasingly valuable and instead of allowing options to expire on their originally agreed upon termination dates, many companies are electing to negotiate extensions. Discussions are also ongoing for another 14 rigs (seven floaters and seven jackups) by several smaller rig
7 April 2011 3
companies. For those companies that have mostly shunned the newbuild cycle thus far, consolidation may be the only near-term option for growth or to replace lost earnings power. We believe another round of rig company consolidation is highly likely. In addition, some of the major rig operators are likely to divest older assets in the near-term. Figure 3: Current Cycle Shipyard Options
Options - Floaters Operator Seadrill Dryships Pride Diamond Noble Aker Drilling Atwood Maersk Drilling Rig Class 12,000' DP 10,000 DP 12,000' DP 12,000 DP 12,000 DP 12,000 DP 12,000 DP 12,000 DP # of Units 2 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 15 Total Exercise Date 1Q11 4Q11 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Undisclosed 3Q11 Undisclosed
Options - Jackups Operator Atwood Seadrill Standard Drilling Mermaid Drilling Noble Clearwater/ Contractor TBC Discovery Ensco Maersk Drilling Transocean Capital Ship Management Corporation (CSMC)
Source: ODS-Petrodata, Company reports
Rig Class 400' IC 400' IC 400' IC 350' IC 400' IC 400' IC 400' IC 400' IC 492' IC 400' IC 400' IC
# of Units 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 26 Total
Exercise Date 2Q11/4Q11 Undisclosed Undisclosed Undisclosed Jan-12 Undisclosed Undisclosed 37105 Jul-11 Undisclosed
7 April 2011
$235,000
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Figure 5: Historical Offshore Rig Orders vs. Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices (WTI)
150 125 100 75 50 40 25 0 20 - Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait nationalizations (1974 - 1975) - Iranian Revolution (1979) 100 Prices collapse as OPEC quotas fail to prevent oversupply Second Gulf war followed by emerging market growth (2003 - 2008)
80
60
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
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1998
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2008
Jackups
Semisubmersibles
Drillships
As a result, a significant portion of the offshore rig fleet (notably jackups) is at or close to the end of their useful lives. Increasingly, operators are also requiring that new drilling programs be completed using new-generation equipment, effectively forcing older assets into retirement. With newbuild capacity dwindling and the major offshore rig companies looking for ways to renew their fleets and replace lost earnings power, we believe acquisitions are becoming a more likely outcome. Figure 6: Recent Offshore Rig Company Consolidation Activity
Value Implied by Seller Acquisition Skeie Drilling $1.2 billion Scorpion Offshore $1.35 billion Frontier Drilling $2.16 billion Seahawk Drilling $106 million Pride International $8.6 billion Implied EBITDA Value per Rig Multiple $410 million NA $193 million NA $309 million 5x 2012E EBITDA $5 million NA $430 million 8x 2012E EBITDA Jackups/ Floaters Jackups Jackups Floaters Jackups Both
Buyer Rowan Companies Seadrill Noble Corp Hercules Offshore ENSCO PLC
7 April 2011
2010
7 April 2011
ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S)
We, James C. West, Mick Pickup and Tom Ackermans, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
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Stock Rating 3-UNDERWEIGHT Currency=NOK Date 26-Oct-2010 19-Mar-2010 18-Feb-2010 17-Aug-2009 15-Jun-2009 23-Feb-2009 Closing Price 89.50 88.40 80.25 50.50 56.00 32.55 1-Overweight 3-Underweight Rating 3-Underweight 2-Equal Weight
150
125
100
75
50
25
Jul- 08
Jul- 09
Jan- 10
Jan- 11
Target Price
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Aker Solutions in the past 12 months. Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Aker Solutions. Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Aker Solutions within the past 12 months. Aker Solutions is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. Aker Solutions is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. Valuation Methodology: Our price target for Aker Solutions is derived from a DCF-based methodology. We have used our forecasted cash flows for the 2010-2013F period and thereafter assumed a cyclical growth (10% pa) until a turn in 2015 when revenues fall (10% pa) until 2016. Margins used for 2014-17F period are comparable to those over the 2004-2008 period. Our terminal value is then taken on a (WACC-g) basis assuming 3% long-term growth. Our discount rate used is 10%, in line with the 10% that we use for the sector. We then apply a 10% premium based on historical trading patterns and compared to the 0-30% that we use for the sector. The valuation is then checked against historical trading multiples. Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: All our estimates are based on Barclays Capital European Oil & Gas equity research teams estimates for future energy supply-demand patterns, exchange rates, commodity prices and the availability of assets within the oils service industry. These estimates are subject to revision and may be materially different from eventual out comes. In addition workload is executed on a global basis in many regions with unstable regimes. All estimates assume no marked changes in the current political landscape. For Aker Solutions specifically, some earnings are exposed to lump sum contracts, which if executed incorrectly can produce significant negative margins. In addition backlog award can be lumpy and profit recognition on projects is often in a non-linear fashion. As a result there may be periodic swings in profitability.
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10
Stock Rating 1-OVERWEIGHT Currency=USD Date 03-Feb-2011 Closing Price 56.99 49.24 43.66 39.07 41.16 38.47 34.69 23.32 21.66 20.92 24.26 29.41 47.76 55.20 48.44 Rating
Price Target 64.00 57.00 54.00 51.00 49.00 46.00 41.00 33.00 34.00 38.00 43.00 45.00 63.00 67.00 54.00
68
15-Dec-2010
60
03-Nov-2010 06-Aug-2010 17-Feb-2010 04-Nov-2009 05-Aug-2009 27-Mar-2009 04-Feb-2009 18-Nov-2008 31-Oct-2008 14-Oct-2008 31-Jul-2008
Jul- 08 Jan- 09 Jul- 09 Closing Price Jan- 10 Jul- 10 Jan- 11
52
45
38
30
22
15
20-May-2008 05-May-2008
Target Price
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Cameron International or one of its affiliates. Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Cameron International. Barclays Bank PLC is associated with specialist firm Barclays Capital Market Makers, which makes a market in Cameron International stock. At any given time, the associated specialist may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and the associated specialist may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the Floor of the Exchange in the stock. Valuation Methodology: Our $64 price target is based on 18x our 2012 EPS estimate of $3.55. Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: A material change in commodity prices would alter our earnings outlook and potentially our stance on the entire oil service and drilling sector. Commodity price changes could be affected by a change in the economic climate, gas storage levels, OPEC behavior, increasing non-OPEC oil production, and international political and economic risks.
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11
Stock Rating 1-OVERWEIGHT Currency=USD Date Closing Price 56.18 53.41 51.27 51.20 40.76 47.06 45.57 48.93 32.58 22.11 31.66 32.34 41.20 69.60 76.03 66.32 1-Overweight Rating
Price Target 68.00 65.00 55.00 53.00 43.00 45.00 46.00 49.00 44.00 45.00 56.00 59.00 61.00 80.00 78.00 71.00
70
15-Mar-2011 10-Feb-2011 08-Feb-2011 15-Dec-2010 02-Jul-2010 08-Apr-2010 09-Mar-2010 26-Oct-2009 24-Apr-2009 02-Mar-2009 18-Nov-2008 24-Oct-2008 14-Oct-2008
Jan- 10 Closing Price Jul- 10 Target Price Jan- 11 Rating Change
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Ensco plc in the past 12 months. Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Ensco plc. Ensco plc is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. Valuation Methodology: Our price target is based on 8x 2012E EV/EBITDA (EV of $19.1 billion and EBITDA of $2.4 billion). Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: A material change in commodity prices would alter our earnings outlook and potentially our stance on the entire oil service and drilling sector. Commodity price changes could be affected by a change in the economic climate, gas storage levels, OPEC behavior, increasing non-OPEC oil production, and international political and economic risks.
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12
Stock Rating 1-OVERWEIGHT Currency=USD Date 04-Feb-2011 24-Jan-2011 Closing Price 76.45 68.25 62.22 63.30 54.00 39.16 42.43 42.54 43.08 31.50 28.02 27.06 25.35 25.50 29.87 80.87 Rating
Price Target 94.00 81.00 78.00 71.00 62.00 52.00 48.00 49.00 47.00 38.00 42.00 46.00 50.00 58.00 69.00 100.00
100
75
50
25
Target Price
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from National Oilwell Varco in the past 12 months. Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of National Oilwell Varco. National Oilwell Varco is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. Valuation Methodology: Our price target of $94 is based on 18.8x our 2012 earnings estimate of $5.00. Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: A material change in commodity prices would alter our earnings outlook and potentially our stance on the entire oil service and drilling sector. Commodity price changes could be affected by a change in the economic climate, gas storage levels, OPEC behavior, increasing non-OPEC oil production, and international political and economic risks.
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13
Stock Rating 1-OVERWEIGHT Currency=USD Date Closing Price 42.67 30.76 32.27 28.19 27.20 28.81 29.81 27.41 24.68 21.37 13.20 10.84 12.91 16.05 22.25 20.76 30.55 36.85 47.34 2-Equal Weight 1-Overweight Rating
Price Target 46.00 40.00 37.00 33.00 30.00 29.00 27.00 28.00 24.00 21.00 18.00 23.00 30.00 32.00 35.00 38.00 46.00 48.00 53.00
55 50 45 40 35 30 25
20 15 10
Target Price
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Rowan Companies. Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Rowan Companies within the past 12 months. Rowan Companies is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. Valuation Methodology: Our 12-month price target of $46 is based on 7.75x our 2012 EV/EBITDA estimate (Enterprise Value of $7,140 million and 2012 EBITDA of $921 million). Our $46 PT coincides with the upper range of our sumo-of-the-parts (SOTP) NAV analysis. Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: A material change in commodity prices would alter our earnings outlook and potentially our stance on the entire oil service and drilling sector. Commodity price changes could be affected by a change in the economic climate, gas storage levels, OPEC behavior, increasing non-OPEC oil production, and international political and economic risks.
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