Phn tch k thut phn 8

S dng ng h tr v ng khng c trong phn tch ng h tr v khng c l mt trong nhng cng c bn c cc tay bun chng khon s dng phn tch v xc nh vng bin ng ca gi c phiu trn th trng. C th Vit Nam, khi nim ng h tr, ng khng c cn rt l lm i vi nhiu nh u t song khi nim ny c nhc ti v s dng rt ph bin trong phn tch k thut, thm ch cn c coi l kim ch nam, l sch gi u ging ca nhiu tay chi c phiu. Bi vit ny nhm cung cp cc kin thc c bn nht v mc h tr, mc khng c cng nh cch xc nh cc mc gi c kh nng xy ra trong tng lai. Mt trong nhng tin ni ting, c tnh kinh in trong phn tch k thut l gi c ca c phiu chu s tc ng mnh m ca mc h tr v mc khng c. H tr l thut ng dng ch cc tc ng gi cho gi c phiu lun cao hn mt mc no , cn khng c ngc li, l thut ng c s dng ch cc tc ng khin cho gi c phiu lun thp hn mt mc nht nh no . Ngi ta nghim ra rng lch s lun lp li, nu trong qu kh cc mc gi tng ng vai tr l gi khng c,th chng c xu hng s lp li vai tr trong tng lai. Vic biu din c cc ng h tr hay khng c trn th c phiu s gip nh u t xc nh c tm quan trng ca chng trong qu kh cng nh tin liu c cc bin ng trong tng lai. Khi nhn thy th trng ang giao dch vi mc gi gn vi v hng v cc mc trn, ta c th a ra mt s d bo hp l v gi c c phiu trong thi gian ti, t c c cc quyt nh u t cho ring mnh. Vy th no l h tr, th no l khng c v hnh th ca chng trn cc th c phiu ra sao? gii quyt c cu hi ny, hy cng quan st mt th c biu din cc ng khng c v ng h tr ti cc mc gi ht sc r rng v d nhn bit. S dng cc thng tin rt ra t bng ny ta c th bit c liu cc mc khng c hay h tr ny c lp li khng khi gi c phiu c xu hng chm ti cc mc gi . Tuy nhin, trc khi i su khm ph nhng b n ng sau cc biu , hy cng tm hiu mt s thut ng v cc nguyn nhn dn ti s hnh thnh ca cc ng ny. Bt k ai thng xuyn theo di cc knh thng tin ti chnh, c cc tp ch u t nh Financial Times, vo cc website chuyn ngnh u t chng khon ca cc th trng ln u c th nghe c v c c cc li nhn xt ca cc chuyn gia ti chnh nh, i loi nh l Ti cho rng mc h tr ca Dow l 7300 hay Dow chc chn s c mc khng c l 8100 Vy th bn cht ti chnh ca khng c hay h tr l g, v ti sao ngi ta li nhc n n nhiu nh vy. Robert Edwards v John Magee trong tc phm kinh in ca h c ta phn tch k thut xu th bin ng c phiu (Technical analysis of stock trend) nh ngha nh sau:

H tr l vic mua, c th trn thc t hoc tim nng, mt khi lng ln c phiu trong mt giai on nht nh nhm ngn chn khng cho gi ca chng gim thm na. Khng c, ngc vi h tr, l vic bn mt lng ln c phiu nhm p ng cc lnh mua, khin cho mc gi khng tng thm na. Xt v quan h cung cu th h tr l mc gi m ti cu ln hn cung, cn khng c l mc gi ti cu nh hn cung.

Hy cng quan st bng 1 thy r hn. y l biu chng khon ca cng ty Rubbermaid t thng 6 nm 1997 n thng 9 nm 1998. th th hin ba ln gi c phiu ln cao hn mc 27.5 im ( ti A ,B ,C), sau li o chiu v gim gi. K , sau khi vt qua mc 27.5 im vo thng 1 nm 1998 gi c phiu li tt xung (im D ,E ,F) trc khi tng ln ti mc 35 im. Mt ng thng c k sao cho cng gn vi c su im ny cng tt. Trong bng ny, ta thy mc gi ng vai tr khng c ti im A-C, sau o chiu v ng vai tr h tr ti im D-E. gii thch c hnh vi ca th trng, chng ta cn phn tch r th ny hn cht na. Sau khi st gim mnh t mc 30 im vo gia thng 7 nm 1997, gi c phiu sau tng ln mc 27.5 (im A) vo thng 8, li st gim, ri tng ln mc 27.25 im vo thng 8, sau li st gim. Chu k ny li tip din mt ln na vo thng 1 nm 1998, sau li c y t mc 27.5 im ln mc 29.5 im vo thng 2. Gi nh rng trc khi din ra s st gi vo gia thng 7 nm 1997, cc nh u t mua c phiu mc gi di 30 im kim c mt khon li nhun sau khi bn li cc c phiu ny cho cc nh u t mi mc gi 30 im. Nhng ngay sau , nhiu ngi trong s cc c ng mi ny au kh khi phi chng kin tin u t ca mnh bng nhin gim i mt 15% ch sau mt m ngn ngi (gi gim xung mc 25.5 im) v ng nhin ai cng mong ngng ngy gi tng gim bt khon

l. Mt khc, cc nh u t l c hi kim li t vic tng gi ngay trc (t thp hn 30 ln 30 im) th li coi y l mt c hi tt mua vo, n gin v mi ch hai ngy trc , mc gi cn ngt ngng 30 im. Chnh v tm l ny nn gi c phiu tng ln mc 27.5 (im A), v cc c ng mua c phiu mc gi 30 cng nh nhm hn mt cht v mc l ca h ch cn 2.5 im thay v 4.5 im nh trc y. Nhiu ngi chp nhn mc l ny, v khng mun ko di tnh trng lo lng cho ti tin ca mnh, h quyt nh bn c phiu ra, khin cho gi st xung. Chu trnh ny lp li (im B v C) cho n khi mt b phn ln cc nh u t khng chp nhn mc l 2.5 im v vn quyt nh nm gi c phiu, khin cho mc gi tip tc tng v vt qua mc 27.5 vo thng 2 nm 1998, tip tc tng ln mc 29.5 im. Ti mc gi ny, nhiu nh u t cm thy hi lng vi quyt nh nm gi c phiu ca mnh, chp nhn mc l 0.5 im, lo s v mc gi duy tr yu trong thi gian di, h quyt nh lin lc vi ngi mi gii ca mnh bn c phiu, khin cho gi li gim xung mc 27.5 (im D). Hin tng ny tip tc xy ra thm hai ln na (im E, F) cho n khi nhng nh u t chp nhn chu mc l nh ra khi th trng, lc ny gi c li c y ln mc 30 im vo thng 5 nm 1998. Qu trnh trn khng ch xy ra ti mc gi ny m n xy ra ngay ti mi mc gi c phiu c giao dch. Mc d iu ny c v qu n gin, nhng l mt trong nhng kiu ra quyt nh ca cc nh u t gip hnh thnh nn mc h tr v mc khng c. Mt vi nhn t quan trng hn c s c nh hng ln n biu hin ca gi c, tuy nhin nu khng tnh ti cc nhn t ny, cc mc h tr v khng c ny c th c nhng tc ng r rt n hnh dng ca bng biu chng khon thng ngy. Nhng quan trng hn c, bng cch kt hp kin thc v mc h tr, mc khng c cng vi cc cng c phn tch c bn v phn tch k thut khc, chng ta c th c nhng s so snh, d on xu hng bin ng ca gi c, chp thi c lm giu, hn l b ng gnh chu v sng st trc nhng bin i bt ng ca n.

Bng th hai li l mt v d khc, th hin bin ng theo tng ngy ca c phiu OSSi (Outback Steakhouse). K t u nm 1998 ti gia thng 2, gi c phiu tng t 28.5 ln 34.5 im (ti A). Hy ch ti phn ng biu din nm st nhau ngay trn ng h tr c k ti mc 34.5, v nhng bin ng ca gi c trong vi thng tip khi n tng gim chm mc h tr 4 ln ti B, C, D, E. T im E cho n cui thng 7, gi tng ln ti tn mc nh im l 41(ti F), ngay sau li tt dc rt nhanh xuyn qua ng h tr, xung mc 32.5 vo u thng 8.

V F l im cao nht trong c thi k phn tch, ta s k mt ng thng t im G n im E, ko thng ng ny sang pha phi (gi l ng xu th). Hy ch rng im dng H trc ngy gi gim t 36 xung 32.5 in (I) nm ngay trn ng ny. S st gim tng i ln ngay ngy sau cho thy ng xu th ny ng vai tr nh mt ng h tr, mt khi vt qua c ro cn ny, gi s rt t do. ng thi iu ny cng c ngha l ng h tr v khng c khng nht thit phi l ng ngang, n c th l mt ng xin. Trn thc t, cng c th coi chnh cc ng xu th ny nh ng h tr hay khng c.

Quay li vi cc im nm trn ng h tr (A, B, C, D, E). V mc gi gim xung di 34.5 nn gi ph v ng h tr v ng xu th. Trong thng 8 mc gi ch yu giao ng nh quanh mc 34.5, lc ny ng xu th khng cn ng vai tr nh mt ng h tr na, n o chiu v ng vai tr nh mt ng khng c cho n khi gi gim xung mc thp hn, n thng 9, c phiu ny c giao dch mc 26. Mc quan trng v ng tin cy trong vic d on tng lai ca ng h tr hay khng c trong phn tch k thut lin quan trc tip n s ln gi chm ti cc ng ny v chuyn ng ngc tr li. Trong th s 4, c t nht l 7 ln gi t ti mc khng c/h tr v sau o chiu. Con s ny chng t rng cc ng ny rt c ngha v ng tin cy, c th dng d on cc bin ng ca gi trong tng lai. N c ng tin 100% khng? Tt nhin l khng, chng c phng php phn tch no li ng tin 100% bi th trng cn chu s tc ng ca rt nhiu yu t, tuy nhin theo nh th ny th kh nng gi s o chiu l rt ln.

Theo th trn, khi mc gi khng gi xu th tng na, chng ta s k mt ng xu th mi th hin hng bin ng mi ca gi c. Mt ng thng ni t F, ko di qua J l ng xu th mi. Mt ng thng khc ni t H, song song vi ng xu th trn c v bao trn c bin giao ng ca gi trong thi gian t thng 7 n thng 9, y chnh l mt hnh h tr-khng c ng xin in hnh. Nhn chung, h tr v khng c khng phi l cng c d on chnh xc 100% s bin ng ca gi c trong tng lai, thay vo chng l cng c dng cnh bo cc nh u t v mt s im cn xem xt thm tra k cng. Bng cch s dng ng h tr v khng c km vi cc ch s khc, chng ta c th bit c cc tc ng ca chng (nu c) i vi gi c phiu, vi chnh xc tu theo s ln gi c chm mc khng c hay h tr.

Phn tch k thut phn 9 L thuyt Dow

L thuyt Dow l c s u tin cho mi nghin cu k thut trn th trng chng khon. Mc d n thng b coi l tr so vi th trng v b nhiu ngi ch trch, nhng n vn c ng o nhng ngi c quan tm n v tn trng.Rt nhiu ngi, d t hay nhiu c s dng l thuyt ny cho vic ra cho ring mnh mt quan im u t u khng nhn ra mt iu l bn cht ca L thuyt Dow l hon ton mang tnh k thut. C s xy dng cng nh i tng nghin cu ca l thuyt chnh l nhng bin ng ca bn thn th trng (th hin trong ch s trung bnh ca th trng) v khng h da trn cng c s ca Phn tch c bn l cc thng k hat ng kinh doanh

ca doanh nghip. Trong nhng ghi chp ca ngi u tin ra l thuyt ny, ng Charles.H.Dow, c rt nhiu iu chng t rng tc gi khng h ngh l thuyt ca mnh s tr thnh mt cng c dng cho d bo th trng chng khon hay thm ch n tr thnh mt hng dn chung cho cc nh u t. Nhng ghi chp y ch ni ln rng ng mun l thuyt ca mnh thnh mt thc o bin ng chung ca th trng. Dow thnh lp Dch v thng tin ti chnh Dow Jones v c mi ngi bit n vi vic tm ra ch s bnh qun th trng chng khon. Nhng nguyn l cn bn ca hc thuyt (ngy nay c t theo tn ng) c ng phc tho ra trong mt bi nghin cu m ng vit cho Nht Bo Ph Wall. Sau khi Dow cht, nm 1902, ngi k tc ng lm bin tp cho t nht bo, William.P.Hamilton, tip tc vic nghin cu l thuyt ny, sau 27 nm nghin cu v vit cc bi bo, ng t chc v cu trc li thnh L thuyt Dow nh ngy nay. Trc ht, hy quan tm n ch s trung bnh ca th trng. Nhn chung gi, chng khon ca tt c cc cng ty u cng ln v xung, tuy nhin mt s c phiu li chuyn ng theo hng ngc li xu th chung ca cc c phiu khc cho d l ch trong vi ngy hoc vi tun. Thc t cho thy khi th trng ln gi th gi ca mt s chng khon tng nhanh hn nhng chng khon khc, cn khi th trng xung gi th mt s chng khon gim gi nhanh chng trong khi c mt s khc li tng ln, nhng thc t vn chng minh rng hu nh tt c cc chng khon u giao ng theo cng mt xu th chung. Cng vi nhng c gng nghin cu ca mnh, Charles Dow a ra khi nim v ch s gi bnh qun nhm phn nh xu th chung ca mt s c phiu i din cho th trng. Hai loi ch s bnh qun Dow Jones c hnh thnh vo nm 1897 v vn c s dng cho n ngy nay do Dow tm ra v p dng trong cc nghin cu ca ng v xu th chung ca th trng. Mt trong hai loi ch s y l ch s ca 20 cng ty xe la, loi cn li gi l ch s cng nghip thuc cc ngnh khc bao gm 12 cng ty mnh nht vo thi k . Con s ny tng ln 20 cng ty vo nm 1916 v n 1928 l 30 cng ty. Ch s bnh qun Dow (phn 1) Thut ng th trng nhm ch gi chng khon ni chung, giao ng ca th trng to thnh cc xu th gi, trong , quan trng nht l c c xu th cp 1 (xu th chnh hay xu th c bn) 1 Ch s bnh qun th trng phn nh tt c (tr hnh ng ca Cha) Bi v n phn nh nhng hot ng c lin kt vi nhau ca hng nghn nh u t, gm c nhng ngi c kinh nghim d on th trng gii nht, c nhng thng tin tt nht v xu hng v cc s kin, nhng g c th nhn thy trc v tt c nhng g c th nh hng n cung v cu ca cc loi chng khon.Thm ch c nhng thin tai hay thm ha khng d tnh c th ngay khi xy ra, chng c th trng phn nh ngay vo gi ca cc loi chng khon.

2 Ba xu th ca th trng Thut ng th trng nhm ch gi chng khon ni chung, giao ng ca th trng to thnh cc xu th gi, trong , quan trng nht l cc xu th cp 1 (xu th chnh hay xu th c bn). y l nhng bin ng tng hoc gim vi qui m ln,thng ko di trong mt hoc nhiu nm v gy ra s tng hay gim n 20% gi ca cc c phiu.Chuyn ng theo xu th cp 1 s b ngt qung bi s xen vo ca cc giao ng cp 2 theo hng i nghch_ gi l nhng phn ng hay iu chnh ca th trng. Nhng bin ng ny xut hin khi xu hng cp 1 tm thi vt qu mc hin ti ca bn thn n (gi chung cc bin ng ny l cc bin ng trung gian bin ng cp 2). Nhng bin ng cp 2 bao gm nhng bin ng gi nh hay gi l nhng bin ng hng ngy u khng c ngha quan trng trong L thuyt Dow. 3 Xu th cp 1 Nh ni n phn trc,xu th cp 1 l nhng chuyn ng ln ca gi, bao hm c th trng, thng ko di hn 1 nm v c th l trong vi nm. Nu nh mi t tng gi lin tip u t n mc cao hn mc trc v mi iu chnh cp 2 u dng li mc y cao hn mc y ca ln iu chnh trc th xu th cp 1 lc ny l tng gi th trng lc ny l th trng gi ln (Bull Market). Cn ngc li nu mi bin ng gim u lm cho gi xung nhng mc thp hn cn mi iu chnh u khng mnh lm cho gi tng ln n mc nh ca nhng t tng gi trc th xu th cp 1 ca th trng lc ny l gim gi, th trng c gi l th trng gi xung (Bear Market).Thng thng, v l thuyt th xu th cp 1 ch l mt trong 3 loi xu th m mt nh u t di hn quan tm. Mc ch ca nh u t l mua chng khon cng sm cng tt trong mt th trng ln gi, sm n mc anh ta c th chc chn rng mi c duy nht mnh anh ta bt u mua v sau nm gi n khi v ch khi thi k Bull Market thc s kt thc v bt u thi k Bear Market. Nh u t hiu rng h c th b qua mt cch an ton tt c nhng s xen vo ca cc iu chnh cp 2 v cc giao ng nh v h u t di hn theo xu th chnh ca th trng. Tuy nhin vi mt nh u t ngn hn th nhng bin ng ca xu th cp 2 li c vai tr quan trng bi h kim li nhun da trn nhng bin ng ngn hn ca th trng. 4 Xu th cp 2 Xu th cp 2 l nhng iu chnh c tc ng lm gin on qu trnh vn ng ca gi theo xu th cp 1. Chng l nhng t suy gim tm thi (trung gian) hay cn gi l nhng iu chnh xut hin cc th trng gi ln; hoc nhng t tng gi hay cn gi l hi phc xut hin cc th trng gi xung.Thng th nhng bin ng trung gian ny ko di t 3 tun n nhiu thng. Chng s ko th trng ngc li khong 1/3 n 2/3 mc tng (hay gim ty loi th trng) ca gi theo xu th cp 1. Do ,

chng hn trong th trng gi ln, nu ch s gi bnh qun cng nghip tng lin tc n nh hoc c gin on rt nh v mc tng t n 30 im, khi xut hin xu th iu chnh cp 2, th ngi ta c th trng i xu th iu chnh ny c th lm gim t 10 n 20 im cho n khi th trng lp li xu th tng cp 1 ban u ca n. Du sao cng cn lu l quy tc gim 1/3 n 2/3 khng phi l mt quy lut khng th ph v m n n gin ch l mt nhn xt v kh nng c th xy ra m hu ht cc bin ng cp 2 u b gii hn trong mc ny. Rt nhiu trong s ngng tc ng im gn vi mc 50% m rt him khi t n mc 1/3. Nh vy c 2 tiu ch nhn nh mt xu th cp 2: Tt c nhng chuyn ng ca gi ngc hng vi xu th cp 1 ko di t nht 3 tun v ko hon li t nht 1/3 mc bin ng thc ca xu th cp 1 (tnh t im kt thc bin ng cp 2 trc n bin ng cp 2 ny, b qua nhng giao ng nh) th c coi l thuc loi trung gian hay cn gi l bin ng cp 2. Mc d c nhng tiu ch xc nh mt xu th cp 2 nhng vn c nhng kh khn trong vic xc nh thi im hnh thnh v thi gian tn ti ca xu th. 5 Xu th nh (Minor) y l nhng giao ng trong thi gian ngn(di ti a 3 tun, thng ch di 6 ngy) m theo nh thuyt Dow ni n, bn thn chng khng thc s c ngha nhng chng gp phn to nn cc xu th trung gian. Thng thng th mt bin ng trung gian d l mt xu th cp 2 hay l mt phn ca xu th cp 1 xen gia hai xu th cp 2 lin tip u c to thnh t mt dy gm 3 hoc nhiu hn nhng sang nh khc nhau.Xu th nh l dng duy nht trong 3 loi xu th c th b li ko (b tc ng). tc ng vo xu th cp1 v 2 th cn nhng giao dch vi khi lng rt ln v iu ny hu nh l khng th. lm r khi nim v 3 xu th ca th trng, ta c th so snh vi bin ng ca sng bin vi mt s im ging nhau nh sau: Xu th cp 1 trong gi chng khon ging nh nhng t thy triu ln hoc xung.C th so snh th trng gi ln (Bull Market) vi thy triu ln. Thy triu dng nc ln b bin ngy cng xa vo su trong b v n nh ca thy triu th li quay ngc tr v bin. Khi thy triu rt li c so snh vi th trng gi xung (Bear Market). V cho d trong lc thy triu ln hay xung th lun c nhng con sng p vo b ri li li li v bin. Khi thy triu ln, mi con sng lin tip nhau vo b, sng sau vo su hn sng trc li gp phn lm thu triu vo xa hn trong b, nhng khi thy triu xung mi con sng khng mang nc ra xa b m nc gim xung l do sng sau vo n b mc thp hn(tt li hn) so vi nh ca sng trc, mi con sng do s tr li dn dn b bin nh trc khi thy triu ln. Nhng con sng ny l cc xu th trung gian,c th cp1 hoc cp 2 ty thuc hng chuyn ng ca n so vi hng ca thy triu vo thi im xy ra xu th . Mt bin cng lun lun bin ng vi nhng gn sng nhp nh chuyn ng cng chiu, ngc chiu hoc chuyn ng ngang so vi hng ca nhng con sng ln

nhng gn sng ny biu hin cho cc xu th nh (nhng giao ng hng ngy c vai tr ko quan trng nh ni phn trn). Nhng t thy triu, nhng con sng v nhng gn sng nh chnh l nhng hnh nh so snh ging nht i vi nhng bin gi ca mt th trng. iu ny c m t c th hn trong L thuyt Sng Elliott, trong mi bin ng ca th trng u gn trc tip vi cc con sng

Phn tch k thut phn 10 L thuyt Dow (tt)

Mt xu th tng gi c bn thng bao gm 3 thi k.Thi k u tin l qu trnh tch t. Trong qu trnh ny, nhng nh u t c tm nhn xa s tin hnh xem xt cc doanh nghip, c th vo thi k ny doanh nghip ang suy thoi nhng nh u t nhn thy kh nng doanh ngip c th chuyn bin tnh hnh thnh tng trng nhanh chng,c th gi c phiu ca n s tng trong thi gian ti 6 Th trng gi ln Mt xu th tng gi c bn thng bao gm 3 thi k.Thi k u tin l qu trnh tch t. Trong qu trnh ny, nhng nh u t c tm nhn xa s tin hnh xem xt cc doanh nghip, c th vo thi k ny doanh nghip ang suy thoi nhng nh u t nhn thy kh nng doanh ngip c th chuyn bin tnh hnh thnh tng trng nhanh chng,c th gi c phiu ca n s tng trong thi gian ti. y cng l thi im m c phiu ny ang c cho bn rt nhiu bi nhng nh u t ang c tm l rt chn nn v lo lng v tnh trng ca nhng c phiu ca h v nhm tng dn gi cho bn ca h khi th trng xut hin s suy gim trong khi lng giao dch. Cc bn bo co ti chnh ca doanh nghip c th khng tt thm ch ti, rt ti. Gii u t hon ton cm thy tht vng khi tham gia vo th trng chng khon bi h thy tin u t ca h ang gim nhanh chng v c nguy c cn gim na, v vy m h mun thot ra khi th trng.Tuy nhin c th nhn thy mt iu vo cui giai on th nht ny l trong hot ng ca cng ty v trong nhng bin ng trn th trng c nhng bin chuyn tuy mi ch mc hn ch, bt u xut hin nhng t tng gi nh. Thi k th 2 l thi k ca s tng trng kh vng chc. Hat ng ca doanh ngip ang theo di gia tng mnh cng vi nhng khi sc trong ni b doanh nghip v doanh thu ca n cng tng dn v bt u thu ht cc mi quan tm trn th trng.y chnh l thi k mang li nhiu li nhun cho cc nh kinh doanh chng khon theo trng phi phn tch k thut. Cui cng l thi k th 3. Trong thi k ny th trng si sc vi nhng bin ng ca n. Cng chng rt ho hc vi tng bin ng ca th trng.Tt c cc thng tin ti chnh ca doanh nghip a ra u rt tt, gi chng khon tng cao ngoi sc tng

tng v ang l nhng vn nng hi c a ln trang u ca cc t bo ra hng ngy.Thi im ny c l l 2 nm k t khi th trng bt u i ln,nhng ngi t kinh nghim c th cho rng th trng lc ny mi chc chn cho li nhun ca h v mun tham gia vo th trng. Nhng thc s th sau 2 nm, gi tng kh cao, cu hi nn t ra vo lc ny l nn bn c phiu no ch khng cn l nn mua c phiu no na.Vo cui thi k th 3, ngi ta c th thy nn u c trn lan, khi lng giao dch vn tip tc tng nhng air-pocket xut hin v cng gia tng thng xuyn,s lng c phiu c gi thp nhng khng c gi tr u t cng gia tng v c nhng t pht hnh tri phiu cng t dn i. 7 Th trng gi xung Xu th gim gi ca th trng cng c chia thnh 3 thi k.Thi k u tin l thi k phn b (thi k ny thc s bt u giai on cui ca th trng gi ln trc ). Trong thi k ny nhng nh u t c tm nhn xa u nhn thy rng doanh thu ca nhng cng ty m h ang nm gi c phiu u ang t mc cao khng bnh thng v h mun nhanh chng thot khi c phiu ca cc cng ty ny. Khi lng giao dch vn rt cao mc d c nhng du hiu ca xu hng gim, cng chng vn rt nng ng nhng cng bt u c du hiu lo lng v cng khng cn nhiu k vng kim li nhun. Thi k th 2 c gi l thi k hn lon. S lng ngi mua bt u gim dn v nhng ngi bn bt u tr ln vi v bn i nhng c phiu mnh ang nm gi. Xu th gim gi bt u tng mnh lm th gi gn nh dc thng xung v khi lng giao dch t n mc nh im.Giai on ny c gi l hn lon v s st gim thng xy ra rt trm trng thm ch l thi qu vi mc vt qu c thc trng ca cc doanh nghip.Sau giai on hn lon c th c giai on hi phc(mt dng xu th cp 2) hoc mt giai on giao ng ngang ca th trng (cc giao ng khng c hng i ln hay i xung m l giao ng trong mt khong c nh theo chiu ngang ca th trng) trong mt thi gian tng i di.Giai on ny th hin tm l chn nn ca mt b phn nh u t,h cng chnh l nhng ngi c gng nm gi c phiu qua thi k hn lon trc hoc cng c th l nhng ngi mua c phiu trong thi k bi v lc gi c c phiu r rng l r hn rt nhiu so vi trc vi thng. Thng tin v cc doanh nghip ngy cng xu i. Kt thc giai on ny mi bc vo thi k th 3. Vo thi k th 3,xu th i xung trn th trng yu dn,nhng li c duy tr bi nhng lnh bn nhiu v lin tc th hin ni bun v s lo lng ca nhng nh u t ang rt cn tin cho nhng nhu cu ring ca h. Cc c phiu u gim n mc thp nht, thm ch gn nh mt hon ton gi tr. Nhng c phiu c cht lng cao hu nh khng c giao dch v nhng ngi s hu chng u mun nm gi n cng. giai on cui ca th trng gi xung, nh mt kt qu ca ton b thi k gim gi trc,c th trng ch tp trung vo giao dch mt s loi c phiu. Th trng gi xung kt thc tt c vi nhng tin xu v cc

doanh nghip, v th trng mc c th coi l ti t nht th hin ra v c th n. 8 Hai ng ch s bnh qun ca th trng phi cng xc nhn xu th ca th trng. y l cu hi thng xuyn t ra nht v cng kh gii thch nht i vi h thng cc nguyn l ca l thuyt Dow.Tuy nhin t khi c a ra cho n nay n c thi gian chng minh tnh ng n v n vn c vn dng cho n ngy nay v bt k mt ai khi xem xt nhng s liu ghi li th u khng th c kin phn i vi nguyn l ny.Cn vi nhng ngi t quan tm hay b qua nguyn l ny th trong thc t kinh doanh s phi nhiu ln tic nui. iu nguyn l ny mun ni n l khng th c mt du hiu chnh xc no v s thay i xu th th trng c th c ra ch thng qua xem xt bin ng ca duy nht mt loi ch s bnh qun( y mun ni n nhng th trng bao gm nhiu ch s bnh qun,chng hn nh M, nh ni phn u,c hai loi ch s bnh qun). 9 Khi lng giao dch p dng km vi xu th th trng. iu ny th hin mt thc t l khi gi bin ng theo ng xu th cp 1 th cc hat ng kinh doanh trn c xu hng m rng hn. Do vy, vi th trng gi ln, khi lng giao dch s tng nu gi tng,v s thu li nu gi gim; vi th trng gi xung, gi tr giao dch s tng nu gi gim v t khi gi c du hiu phc hi. iu ny vn ng mc thp hn tc l vi nhng xu th cp 2, c bit l trong giai on u ca mt xu th hi phc cp 2 trong mt th trng gi xung, khi m cc din bin ca th trng ch ra rng gi s tng ln theo mt s t tng gi nh, cn cc bin ng ko gi xung gim i. Cc kt lun y thng khng c gi tr nu ch da trn din bin trong vi ngy v cng khng c gi tr vi nhng kt lun da trn mt phin giao dch n l.Nguyn l ny ch pht huy hiu qu nu da trn nhng din bin ca khi lng giao dch chung trong thi gian giao dch tng i di .Hn na, theo L thuyt Dow th ch da trn nhng phn tch v gi mi c th a ra c nhng du hiu mang tnh quyt nh v xu th th trng,cn khi lng giao dch ch c th cung cp thm nhng chng c ph gii thch r hn bin ng ca th trng v s dng vo nhng tnh hung khi du hiu chnh t ra cn nhiu nghi ng. 10 ng ngang c th thay th cho cc xu th cp 2 ng ngang theo inh ngha ca L thuyt Dow l nhng chuyn ng ngang c tnh cht trung gian ca th trng phn nh thi k m gi bin ng rt t (vi th trng M l nh hn hoc bng 5%). ng ngang thng ko di t 2 n 3 tun hoc i khi l lu hn (trong vi thng). Khi th trng xut hin m hnh dng ng ngang, iu ny ch ra rng p lc ca cung v cu trn th trng l tng i cn bng. Thc t trong giai on ny cc lnh t mua hoc bn u th hin mt s kit sc .Nhng ngi mun mua c phiu th phi tng mc gi cho mua khuyn khch

ngi c c phiu m h mun bn cho h,cn nhng ngi mun bn th vi th trng c bin ng dng ng ngang h thy rng s lng ngi mua ang t dn v kt qu l h phi gim gi c th bn c nhng c phiu ca mnh. Do vy mt mc gi giao ng vt ra ngoi mc giao ng ca m hnh ng ngang ang xut hin trn th trng s l mt du hiu r rng cho mt th trng ln hoc xung gi ty thuc vo hng ca giao ng vt ra ngoi. Nhn chung m hnh ng ngang cng ko di lu v bin giao ng cng nh th ngha ca giao ng vt ra ngoi m hnh ng ngang cng ln. M hnh ng ngang thng din ra di va khong thi gian tn ti ca n mang mt ngha quan trng i vi nhng ngi phn tch th trng theo trng phi Dow. Nhng bin ng vt ra ngoi m hnh ng ngang c th l du hiu cho thy m hnh ny chnh l nhng mc nh hoc y rt quan trng ca th trng bi nu l nh th chnh l giai on phn b- giai on ban u ca mt th trng gi xung; cn nu du hiu cho thy n c th l mc y ca th trng th y l giai on tch t giai on u ca mt th trng gi ln.Thng thng nht, n ng vai tr nh mt thi k yn tnh thuc giai on cui cng trong qu trnh hnh thnh hoc thuc giai on cng c xu th cp 1 ca th trng. Trong nhng trng hp m hnh ny ng vai tr nh nhng sng cp 2. Mc bin ng 5% cng hon ton ch l mt mc bin c xc nh theo kinh nghim bi trn thc t rng m hnh ng ngang c rt nhiu im tng ng vi m hnh cng c nhiu bin ng ngang vi bin ln hn nhng hai bin ca n vn c xc nh kh r rng v tng i chun nn cng c tnh l mt loi m hnh ng ngang. 11 Ch s dng mc gi ng ca nghin cu. L thuyt Dow khng quan tm v t cao n cc mc bin ng gi (thm ch l c mc gi cao nht v thp nht) trong ngy m ch quan tm n nhng s liu cui ngy giao dch, chng hn nh mc bnh qun gi bn cui cng trong ngy. Xem xt mt th trng vi xu th c bn l tng gi v ang thi im gi tng v t mc nh ca ngy hm vo 11 gi sng, gi s lc ch s bnh qun cng nghip ang l 152.45 sau li gim xung mc gi ng ca l 150.70. c th xc nhn th trng vn ang trong xu th c bn l tng gi th t tng gi tip theo mc gi ng ca phi cao hn 150.70 . Trong trng hp ny mc nh 152.45 khng c quan tm n. Tri li nu t th 2, d gi c t n mc nh 152.60 nhng gi ng ca li nh hn 150.70 th hon ton c c s nghi ng liu xu th tng gi hin ti c cn tip tc hay khng. Trong nhng nm gn y, nhiu kin c a ra xung quanh vn liu ch s gi bnh qun phi tng thm hay gim i bao nhiu so vi gii hn t c ca t giao ng gi trc (nh hoc y) c th bo hiu (xc nhn mt xu th mi hoc xc nhn li xu th hin ti) xu th th trng. Dow v Hamilton lun rt cn thn trong

vic xem xt bt c mt giao ng nh no xen vo xu th hin ti lm gi thay i thm ch n 0.01 v hai ng u cho rng du hiu hon ton c th l mt du hit ng. Nhng ngy nay nhiu nh phn tch cho rng mc thay i phi t t nht 1.00 mi c th c coi l mt du hiu ca th trng. 12 Mt xu th cn c gi nh rng vn ang tip tc cho n khi c mt du hiu thc s v s o chiu ca xu th c xc nh. Nguyn l ny l mt trong nhng nguyn l c nhiu kin tranh ci nht. Nhng nguyn l ny khi c hiu chnh xc vn c gi tr rt ln trong phn tch th trng. Nguyn l ny gip phng vi nhng thay i qu sm trong quan im v th trng nhng phn ng qu sm,theo nh chng ta hay ni l cm n chy trc t, ca bt k nh u t no. iu ny khng nhm lm nh u t tr hon hnh ng ca mnh li mt cch khng cn thit,cho d l ch mt pht, khi nhng du hiu v s thay i ca xu th th trng l r rng, nhng n nhc nh mt iu rng li th s nghing v pha nhng ngi bit ch i cho n khi h chc chn v tnh hnh th trng v r rng s khng nghing v nhng ngi qu nn nng vi hnh ng ca h. Kh nng xy khng th c pht hin mt cch r rng bi bn cht ca n l nhng bin ng thc t ca th trng v chng thay i thng xuyn. Th trng gi ln khng th ln gi mi v th trng gi xung th sm mun cng t n y ca n. Khi mt xu th cp 1 ca th trng va mi c hnh thnh th cho d c nhng giao ng trong ngn hn ta vn c th chc chn rng n khng thay i, nhng nu n ko di cng lu th mc chc chn cng t dn i,cc im ti xc nhn xu th th trng cng c gi tr t dn i. ng lc ca ngi mua v kh nng bn c nhng c phiu vi gi cao hn gi mua kim li s ngy cng thp nu nh Bull Market tn ti trong nhiu thng v r rng l thp hn khi n mi hnh thnh. Nguyn l th 12 ca Dow ni rng Making your position pending contrary orders. Mt h qu tt yu t nguyn l ny l khi c nhng du hiu v s thay i ca xu th th trng th s thay i c th xy ra bt c lc no.V vy bt c nh u t no cng cn phi theo di th trng mt cch thng xuyn.

Phn tch k thut phn 11

Nh phn tch k thut trn th trng chng khon l nhng ngi c th d on gi c phiu trong tng lai bng vic pht hin ra xu hng gi trong qu kh. 1- Biu phn tch k thut. K thut dng biu phn tch k thut rt ph bin t cui th k 19, do Charles H. Dow khi xng. Sau , quan im ca ng tr thnh L thuyt Dow (Dow Theory), cho rng nhng bin ng th trng vi mi xu hng u c th c d on trc trn c s bin ng gi c phiu trn cc biu .

C s ca vic phn tch l tm cch xc nh gi ca c phiu trong tng lai bng vic nhn din v o lng gi tr c phn. Cc l thuyt v phn tch k thut cho rng, cc hnh vi th trng trong qu kh t n s xc nh gi tng lai. Biu phn tch k thut gm hai trc biu th gi v thi gian. Mi mt c phn, th trng v ch s nim yt trn bng giao dch u c biu th bng mt biu minh ho s bin ng gi chng khon qua cc thi k; mi mt th (ng) l tp hp cc im ch gi ng ca (closing price) ngy giao dch. ng thi, c mt s lin h gia gi m ca, gi ng ca, gi cao nht / thp nht. Phn tch biu c th c p dng cho tng chng khon ring l cng nh mt danh mc u t. Cc nh phn tch s dng k nng nghin cu k thut cc biu ch s nhn nh th trng ang trng thi th trng b hay th trng gu. Vi cc biu , cc nh u t c th a ra nh gi tng t v cng ty m mnh la chn. 2- Xu hng. S dng biu nhn din xu hng hin ti: xu hng phn nh t l bin i trung bnh ca gi c phiu qua thi gian. Cc xu hng tn ti trong mi trng thi thi gian v mi th trng. Cc nh u t hng ngy c th xy dng c xu hng ca c phiu m h mua (bn) trong vng vi pht. V di hn, cc nh u t quan st cc xu hng tn ti trong nhiu nm. Cc xu hng c phn loi: tng, gim, hoc khng i. Theo xu hng tng, mt c phiu hi phc thng l vi mt giai on qu gia tnh n nh v nhng bin ng gim. Do vy, n s hnh thnh ln hng lot nhng nh cao hn v y cao hn trn biu c phiu, v ngi ta d on rng, kh nng tng gi c phiu l c th. Theo xu hng gim, mt c phiu suy yu thng l vi mt giai on qu gia tnh n nh v bin ng tng. Do vy, n s hnh thnh ln hng lot nhng nh thp hn v y thp hn trn biu c phiu, v ngi ta d on rng, kh nng gim gi c phiu l c th.

Xu hng khng i biu th bng s dao ng ln xung trong mt thi gian di gia cc gii hn tng gim trc quan. S bin ng gi trn biu l khng r rng v gi c phiu s khng thay i (hoc thay i khng ng k). Xu hng c kh nng n nh theo thi gian. Mt c phiu vi xu hng tng (gim) (v gi) s tip tc tng (gim) cho n khi c bin ng v gi tr hoc cc trng thi xy ra.

Ngi c biu phi nh v c cc nh v y nhng im biu th s chm dt kh nng hi phc hay suy yu. La chn ti mt im gn nh hoc y c th rt c li. Mt chm ngn ni rng, xu hng l bn ca anh. Vi cc nh kinh doanh v cc nh u t, tuyn ngn ny c ngha l, bn s t thnh cng hn nu la chn v th c phiu theo xu hng ph bin, hn l i ngc li vi n.. 3- Khi lng. Khi lng c phiu giao dch nh gi mc tham gia ca cc nh u t. Cc biu c phiu cho thy khi lng thng qua th hnh ct di cc gi. Thng thng trong cc biu ny, cc ng mu xanh ch cc ngy gi ln v nhng ng mu l nhng ngy gi xung. Cc nh u t v kinh doanh c th nh gi c li mua v bn bng vic theo di s ln gi ln xung trong mt ng v mc bin ng ca chng so vi nhng ngy gi bin ng theo chiu hng ngc li th nh th no. C phiu mua vo vi li cao hn khi bn ra c gi l ang trong trng thi tch lu, v ngc li, trng hp li khi bn ra cao hn khi mua vo c gi l ang trong qu trnh phn phi. Tch lu v phn phi thng dn ti s bin ng ca gi c. Hay ni cch khc, cc c phiu ang trong trng thi tch lu thng s tng gi ch mt thi gian ngn sau khi hnh vi mua bt u. V ngc li, nhng c phiu ang c lu thng thng rt gi mt thi gian sau khi bn ra. Mt c phiu c th hi phc c hay khng i hi s tham gia nhit tnh ca cc nh u t. Khi s hi phc ca mt c phiu khng hp dn c cc nh u t mi th n s rt d rt gi. Cc nh u t v kinh doanh s dng cc tiu ch nh trng thi cn bng khi lng nh gi s lng ngi tham gia ang chm li hay tin trin nhanh hn cc ng thi ca gi c. Cc c phiu giao dch thng ngy vi mt khi lng trung bnh. Khi lng ny c th xc nh c tnh lng ca cc c phiu . Nh kinh doanh c th rt d dng mua v bn cc c phiu c tnh lng cao. Nhng c phiu khng c tnh lng cao i hi chi ph giao dch rt ln v thng khng th nhanh chng loi b ra khi mt danh mc u t. Nhng php phn tch biu c phiu khng th p dng cho c phiu khng c tnh lng cao.

Vic gi c phiu gia tng t bin ko theo mt khi lng giao dch cao hn rt nhiu so vi mc trung bnh l c li cho s tip tc bin ng ca gi c phiu theo chiu hng . Nhng sau mt thi gian di tng gim, cc c phiu thng c mt ngy c khi lng giao dch rt ln, t mc nh im. Trong nhng ngy ny, ngi mua,

hoc ngi bn cui cng s l nhng ngi c li nht. Sau , gi tr ca c phiu s thay di theo chiu hng ngc li v s khng cn c lng ngi tham gia giao dch lm cho gi bin chuyn theo chiu hng 4- M hnh v ch s Lm th no bn c th bin nhng ng v tn biu th cc d liu trn biu thnh mt dng logic m khng cn s can thip ca cc thao tc k thut ? Cc biu cho php cc nh u t v kinh doanh nhn bit hnh vi gi c th trng c trong qu kh v hin ti lm c s hp l cho vic d bo cng nh a ra cc quyt nh khn ngoan. N gn ging nh cng c trc gic, tri ngc vi quan im ca cc nh phn tch gi tr. Biu c phiu c kh nng tc ng ti cc chc nng ca c hai bn cu no v t duy logic v tnh sng to. Quan im ny gy tranh ci trong gii phn tch u t trong sut th k qua. Dng nguyn thu ca vic c cc biu l phn tch m hnh. Phng thc ny kh ph bin qua cc l thuyt ca Charles Dow v cun Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (vit ngay sau Chin tranh th gii II). Dng hin i hn l phn tch ch s, mt phng php kho st s dng cc cng c ton hc trong cc yu t c bn ca gi v s lng c xem xt thng qua mt lot cc php tnh nhm d on mc tng gim tip theo ca gi c. Php phn tch m hnh c chnh xc cao do cc th c xu hng lp i lp li s hnh thnh cc ng. Nhng m hnh ny t lu c phn loi thnh khuynh hng u c gi ln v u c gi xung. C mt s m hnh c nhiu ngi bit n nh u v Vai (HEAD and SHOULDERS), Tam gic (TRIANGLES), Hnh ch nht (RECTANGLES), Hai nh (DOUBLE TOPS), Hai y (DOUBLE BOTTOMS), v Hnh c (FLAGS). Hn na, cc chi tit ca th nh cc khe h gi (GAPS) v ng ch xu hng (TRENDLINES) c coi l c nh hng ng k n qu trnh din bin tip theo ca gi. Php phn tch ch s s dng cc php tnh ton hc nh gi mi quan h gia tnh hnh din bin gi thi im hin ti vi qu kh. Hu ht cc ch s c th c phn chia thnh cc nhm theo khuynh hng v giao ng. Cc ch s theo khuynh hng ph bin l cc ch s trung bnh bin i (MOVING AVERAGES), khi lng cn bng (ON BALANCE VOLUME) v MACD. Ch s giao ng thng thng bao gm STOCHASTICS, RSI v t l thay i (RATE OF CHANGE). Ch s theo xu hng thng phn ng chm hn so vi ch s giao ng. Cc ch s ny i su vo phn tch qu kh d on tng lai. Ch s giao ng nhy cm hn vi cc thay i gi c trong ngn hn, giao ng qua li gia mc OVERBOUGHT v OVERSOLD.

C hai phng php m hnh v ch s u c th nh gi c tm l th trng. Cc nh u t v giao dch trn th trng hng ngy c xu hng hnh ng theo tm l chung khi gi c bin ng. H c khuynh hng bc l cc c tnh c hu m lp i lp li nhiu ln. Vic gii thch r biu c s dng hai cng c phn tch quan trng ny cho thy nhng chn ng tm l trong gii u t m rt cc th cng c th hiu c l do s bin ng ca gi c.

Phn tch k thut phn 12

BIU GI v SUPPORT RESISTANCE Support v resistance i din quan trng cho mi quan h gia cung v cu. Trn th trng ti chnh, gi c ph thuc vo s tng gim ca cung v cu. Cung tng ng ngha vi xu hng gim, k vng gi gim v vic bn. Cu tng ng ngha vi xu hng tng , k vng gi tng v vic mua. Nhng t ny c dng vi ngha nh nhau. Khi nhu cu tng gi s tng cn khi cung tng th gi s gim. Khi cung v cu t mc cn bng th gi s n nh. Xc lp gi C 2 phng php biu din mc gi dc theo trc y (trc tung) l: arithmetic (s hc) v logarithmic (thuc hm log). Cch arithmetic biu din 10 im cch u nhau trn ng cho cho d mc gi c khc nhau. Mi n v o u nh nhau. Nu gi c phn tng t 10 ln 80 sau 6 thng th s xut hin s dch chuyn t 10 ln 20 v s dch chuyn ny cng tng ng vi s dch chuyn t 70 ln 80. Tuy nhin s chuyn dch trn khng tng ng v phn trm. Cch logarithmic o s tng gim ca gi c theo phn trm. Tng t 10 ln 20 ngha l tng 100%. Cng th vi bc tng t 20 ln 40 v t 40 ln 80. C 3 s dch chuyn trn c khong cch trn ng cho nh nhau . Hu ht cc chng trnh v biu cho rng dng logarithmic l dng semi-log, v trc thi gian vn c biu din theo kiu s hc

Biu trn minh ha cho s khc nhau ca 2 dng. dng semi-log, khong cch gia 50 v 100 cng bng khong cch gia 100 v 200. Cn i vi dng arithmetic th khong cch gia 100 v 200 ln hn nhiu so vi 50 v 100. u im ca 2 dng biu din trn: - Dng arithmetic hu ch khi bin gi tng i hp. - Dng arithmetic hu ch biu din nhng biu v nhng giao dch trong thi gian ngn. S chuyn dch gi(c bit l gi c phn) c biu din tuyt i v phn nh s chyn dch ca dollar vi dollar. - Dng semi-log hu ch khi gi c tng gim mnh, vt hoc m rng khung thi gian. - Cc ng biu din khng qu chnh lch trong dng semi-log. - Dng semi-log hp cho nhng biu c thi gian di d on mc tng phn trm sau 1 khong thi gian di. Nhng dch chuyn ln tr nn cn i hn. - C phn v ti sn th chp c nh gi tng i qua vic dng cc t l nh PE, gi/thu nhp, gi/s thu chi. iu ny cng gip phn tch s chuyn dch gi theo phn trm 1 cch hp l Kt lun Cho d c nhiu k thut khc nhau v biu th khng hn mt phng php s tt hn phng php khc. D liu c th ging nhau nhng mi phng php c cch trnh by ring vi nhng u v khuyt im khc nhau. Mc gi ca ti sn th chp

c trnh by th no, biu thanh hay biu candlestick, biu din dng arithmetic hay semi-log khng phi l yu t quan trng nht. V cui cng, d liu th lun ging nhau v s bin ng gi vn l s bin ng gi. Khi tt c c ni v lm, k nng phn tch s bin ng gi l yu t phn loi nh nh gi c thnh cng hay khng. La chn s dng biu no cn ph thuc vo s thch c nhn v cch giao dch hay u t ring ca mi ngi. Mt khi bn chn c dng biu th nn km theo nhng d on v hc cch tt nht d on. i i i li c th gy ra xo trn v khng lm r ctrng tm ca bi phn tch. Li phn tch him khi gy ra bi biu . Do nn xem li bi phn tch trc khi li cho biu . Cha kha phn tch biu l quyt tm, t trng tm v s thng nht: -Quyt tm: Hc nhng iu c bn v phn tch biu , ng dng kin thc hc thng xuyn. -Trng tm: Gii hn s lng biu , du hiu v cch thc thc hin ca bn. Hc cch s dng chng v cch s dng chng cho tht tt. -S thng nht: Duy tr nhng dng biu bn dng v nghin cu chng thng xuyn(nghin cu mi ngy nu c th). Support and Resistance Support v resistance i din quan trng cho mi quan h gia cung v cu. Trn th trng ti chnh, gi c ph thuc vo s tng gim ca cung v cu. Cung tng ng ngha vi xu hng gim, k vng gi gim v vic bn. Cu tng ng ngha vi xu hng tng , k vng gi tng v vic mua. Nhng t ny c dng vi ngha nh nhau. Khi nhu cu tng gi s tng cn khi cung tng th gi s gim. Khi cung v cu t mc cn bng th gi s n nh. Support l g? Support l mc gi m ti ngi ta cho rng nhu cu nhiu mc gi khng gim mnh. Khi gi gim n mc support hoc r hn na th ngi mua s c khuynh hng mua tip v ngc li ngi bn s khng bn. Trc khi gi gim ti mc support, hin tung cu vt qu cung xut hin v hin tung ny s ngn gi gim xung di mc support

Support khng phi lun mc n nh v vic mc support gimbo hiu cung vt qu cu. Khi ngi ta c xu hng bn nhiu hn mua. Mc support b ph v v mc support mi thp hn d bo ngi bn ang mt hy vng v h sn sng bn vi gi thp. Thm vo , ngi mua s khng mua cho n khi gi gim di support hoc gim so vi mc trc . Khi mc support b ph v, 1 mc support khc thp hn s c thit lp. Mc support c thit lp cn c vo u? Mc support thng thp hn mc gi hin ti nhng thng thng s an ton nu giao dch gn mc support hoc ti mc support. K nng phn tch khng phi l ngnh nghin cu chnh xc v i khi rt kh xc nh mc support chnh xc. Hn na, s chuyn dch gi c th t bin v tt xung di mc support 1 cch t ngt. i khi khng hp l khi cho rng mc support b ph v nu gi gim gn 1/8 so vi mc support. V l do ny nhiu nh giao dch v u t to ra vng support Resistance l g? Resistance l mc gi m ti ngi ta cho rng vic bn ra nhiu gi gi khng tng mnh. Khi gi tng n mc resistance th ngi bn c khuynh hng tip tc bn v ngi mua thng dng li. Trc khi ga chm ti mc resistance th cung s vt qu cu ,ngn gi tng trn mc resistance

Resistance thng khng gi nguyn v mc resistance b ph v d bo cu vt qu cung. Vic mc resistance b ph v cho thy ngi ta mua nhiu hn bn. Mc resistance b ph v v mc resistance mi cao hn cho thy ngi mua sn sng mua ngay c vi gi cao. Hn na, ngi bn s khng bn cho n khi gi tng trn mc resistance hoc tng hn trc . Khi mc resistance b ph v th 1 mc resistance mi cao hn s c thit lp. Mc resistance c thit lp cn c vo u? Mc resistance thng cao hn mc gi hin ti nhng thng thng giao dch ti mc resistance hoc gn mc ny l an ton. Thm vo , s chuyn dch gi c th t bin v tng trn mc resistance 1 cch t ngt. i khi tht bt hp l khi cho rng mc resistance b ph v nu gi tng gn 1/8 so vi mc resistance c thit lp. V vy nhiu nh giao dch v u t thng lp nn vng resistance. Phng php no thit lp support v resistance? Support v resistance ging nh nhng hnh nh phn chiu trong gng v c nhiu im chung Mc cao v mc thp: Support c th c thit lp da vo mc thp trc v tng t, resistance c th c to bi mc cao trc

Biu trn biu din phm vi giao dch rng t thng 1-99 n thng 3-2000. Support c to nn bi mc thp thng 10 gn mc 33. vo thng 12, gi c phn quay li mc support vo khong 33-35 v mc thp l gn 34. Cui cng vo thng 2 gi c phn 1 ln na quay li mc support v mc thp l gn 33 1/2. Sau mi ln mc support di ln, gi giao dch c phn li tng ln mc resistance. Mc resistance ban u c to nn t mc support l 42. 5 b ph v thng 9. Sau khi mc support b ph v th n tr thnh mc resistance. T mc thp ca thng 10, gi c phn tng n mc resistance mi(m trc l mc support)khong gn 42.5. Khi gi c phn khng vt qua 42.5 th lc mc resistance c xc nh. Gi c phn sau tng n mc 42. 5 2 ln na ri li gim di mc resistance 2 ln. Support = Resistance Mt iu c bn ca k nng phn tch l mc support c th chuyn thnh mc resistance. Khi gi gim di mc support th mc support y c th tr thnh mc resistance. Mc support b ph v bo hiu cung vt qua cu. Do , nu gi quay tr li mc ny th cung c th s tng. Ngc li mc resistance cng c th s chuyn thnh mc support. Khi gi vt qua mc resistance, c th s xut hin s thay i ca cung v cu. Vic mc resistance b ph v chng t cu vt qu cung. Ny gi quay tr li mc ny, c th cu s tng v mc support c th c xc nh.

Trong biu trn, gi c phn ph v mc resistance l 935 thng 5-97 v vt trn mc resistance trong hn 1 thng sau. Sau ln th 2 mc support l 935, mc gi ny c thit lp. Trong v d ny, ta thy mc support c th tr thnh mc resistance v sau li tr li thnh mc support. Mc support l 18 t thng 10-98 n thng 1-99(vng oval xanh l cy), nhng gi gim di mc support vo thng 3-99 do cung vt qu cu. Khi gi c phn b di xung (vng oval mu ), mc cung cao nht chm n mc resistance 18 trong khong t thng 1-99 n thng 10-99. Do u c mc cung cao nh th? D thy nhu cu tng cao trn di 18 trong khong thng 10-98 n thng 3-99 (vng oval xanh l cy) . Do s c nhiu ngi mua gn mc 18. Khi gi gim di 18 v gn mc 14, nhiu ngi mua ny s gi li c phn. iu ny gi cho mc cung cao(thng thng c xem l mc resistance) mc gn 18. Khi gi c phn quay li 18, ngi mua trong mc oval xanh l cy ( mua trong mc 18 ) s nm ly c hi bn. V khi cung yu dn, cu c kh nng vt cung gi mc resistance ti 18.

Phn tch k thut phn 13

iu m chng ta quan tm nht l qu trnh xc nh khi no gi bt u i theo xu hng. V 1 cng c c th h tr vic l ch s nh hng trung bnh ( Average Directional Index ) ADX Xc nh khi no gi bt u i theo xu hng iu m chng ta quan tm nht l qu trnh xc nh khi no gi bt u i theo xu

hng. V 1 cng c c th h tr vic l ch s nh hng trung bnh ( Average Directional Index ) ADX Hu ht ngi giao dch u tp trung vo cc ch s xung lng (momentum) ph bin tm kim tn hiu vt mua / vt bn ( overbought / oversold ), v cc ch s gi / xung lng phn k ( divergence) xc im im kt thc ca xu hng. Chng ta hy xem xt ch s RSI nhanh xc nh tn hiu vt mua ./ vt bn nh th no trn th USD/JPY

Tht r rng ! ch s xung lng RSI phn nh chnh xc th trng, v nu bn mi bt u v k thut th ch s trn chc s gy n tng mnh vi bn ! Tuy nhin, tt c cc cng c k thut khng n gin nh vy. chng ta hy xem 1 v d khc v s thay i gi

2 tn hiu RSI u tin ( vt bn v vt mua ) rt chnh xc. Tuy nhin, cc tn hiu sau lin tip ch mc vt bn nhng gi vn tip tc tng cao. iu g xy ra? n gin, ch s xung lng cung cp tn hiu vt mua / vt bn trong 1 th trng dao ng v cha chc chn. Tuy nhin, n s b mt tc dng khi th trng bt u i theo xu hng , v l nhng g din ra ti biu trn. Trong k xu hng, cc ch s xung lng hu ht u nm v th vt mua / vt bn cao v khng phn nh c chnh xc din bin th trng. Ti thi im ny chng ta cn b qua tn hiu xung lng . iu m chng ta quan tm nht l qu trnh xc nh khi no gi bt u i theo xu hng. V 1 cng c c th h tr vic l ch s nh hng trung bnh ( Average Directional Index ) ADX Nhn vo biu di y:

Trn biu c s dng cng c ch s ADX (xanh l cy) vi +DI (xanh dng) v DI (). 2 ng +DI v DI biu hin xung lng tch cc v tiu cc ca gi. Khi xu hng r rng ng +DI s vt t di ln khi ng DI , v ngc li. ADX l ng ch s nh hng trung bnh cho c xu hng tng v xu hng gim. C ngha l khi gi tng hay gim theo 1 chiu r rng ( theo 1 xu hng xu hng tng hoc gim ) , ADX vt mc 30 cho bit xu hng ang trong giai on pht trin. Ti thng dnh nhiu ch cho ng ADX, v khi n tng vt mc 30, c th pht l tn hiu RSI. Tuy nhin, ADX l 1 ch s chm v n ch i theo sau 1 khong thi gian khi cc ch s xung lng bo tn hiu vt mua / vt bn. Lm cch no hiu qu? Trc tin phi xc nh nu ch c cc ng ch s xung lng vo vng cnh bo, iu ny cha xc nh c hi giao dch. Trong v d trn khi ng RSI nhanh tin ti vng vt mua, chng ta cn nh gi bin ng gi khng ch trn biu ngy m cn trn nhng khung thi gian ngn hn.

Trong nhng tnh hung chng ta s xem xt n cc im nh v y ( top and bottom) trc khi ADX vt mc 25-30. Mt l do ng tin cy l xu hng lun c qui lut l bc sng. Hnh v trn cho thy trong 1 xu hng tng vn c cc im nh v y , nhng trong 1 khung, v khi im y b ph v, l du hiu ca 1 s o ngc xu hng. r rng hn chng ta c th v thm 1 ng k h tr ( support line) di cc im y , v khi n b ph v, c th l 1 tn hiu bo xu hng kt thc. Mt ri ro nh l gi c th quay li ti l li ng support sau khi xuyn qua n, v iu ny thnh thong xy ra trong xu hng tng, do chng ta cn xem xt khi ADX bt u gim th xu hng c th kt thc, kt hp vi ng RSI nhanh cung cp tn hiu vt mua hoc vt bn. V vy khi thm ADX vo danh mc ch s ca bn, bn c th nh gi c xu hng ang xy ra hay khng. y l 1 v kh hiu qu h tr cho cc cng c ca bn, cung cp thng tin thay v lm phc tp cc ch s xung lng khc.

Chng ta cn quan tm n li ch t vic kt hp kin thc v RSI v ADX vo trong mt h thng n gin. C ADX v RSI u l nhng cng c hiu qu v s kt hp gia chng dng nh s em li 1 kh nng rt ln . Ti thch s dng RSI ch yu nh 1 ch s xc nh tn hiu mua mua trong xu hng ln. V ADX l ch s o lng sc mnh ca xu hng . Di y l 1 s yu t lm cch no 2 ch s ny c th phi hp nhau trong 1 h thng xc nh thi im vo th trng khi xu hng mnh v mua ti im y. ( ti tp trung phn tch vo vic k vng gi ln nhng lp lun ny vn c th p dng tt cho k vng gi xung ) Khi ng ADX ang tng, y l ch s xc nh xu hng mnh ang din ra. Trong 1 vi trng hp i n khi c im thch hp vo th trng s khng hiu qu bi v xu hng tng c th bi vut mt v im vo th trng ti a li nhun ca bn i khi qu chm. Trong trng hp ny chng ta phi vo ngay khi c xu hng mnh. thc hin iu ny nh l 1 nguyn tc n gin, chng ta c th da vo sc tng ca ADX ( chng ta cng c th xem 1 s ch s khc ang tng bo hiu xu hng tng ang din ra ) , v t lnh MUA, bt k lc no RSI ang thp hn ngng cao 85. Nguyn tc ny gip chng ta xc nh nhanh chng im vo trong hu ht mi trng hp v kt qu cho thy ch cn giao dch khi ADX tng l 1 tng rt hay. ng RSI s gip trnh mua mc vt mua ( overbought) khi vt qua 85, trnh c nhng tnh hung qu mo him. ng RSI, tuy nhin, c vai tr rt quan trng khi m ADX ang theo chiu ngang hoc h xung. Trong trng hp ny nguyn tc l nu ng ADX khng tng chng

ta phi hon li im vo lnh. Mt khi ng ADX khng a cho chng ta 1 tn hiu tt v sc mnh ca xu hng, cn b sung thm nhng ch s khc xc nh th trng c tim nng tng nh th no. Nu khng chng ta khng th chn c im tt vo th trng khi xu hng ln. Mt vi ng nh ng trung bnh ng MA 20 cng khng hiu qu khi p dng vi cc ch s ny. By gi, sau khi t lnh vo th trng vi s kt hp gia 2 ch s ADX v RSI, chng ta cng s kt hp chng xc nh im ra. Khi th trng ang tng, nhng xu hng khng cn mnh . chng ta s da vo ng RSI xc nh im ng lnh thun li nht thu li nhun. Mt v d khi bn ang giao dch vi RSI 9 tng n 75 80 im, y l tn hiu cho thy s hiu chnh sp xy ra. Nu xu hng th trng khng cn mnh chng ta nn vui v vi khong li nhun c c thay v i n vic ng lnh khi c s hiu chnh. Tuy nhin nu ADX vn tip tc tng chng ta c th mo him vi hi vng xu hng tip tc tng hn na. Khi ADX tng cng ta c th pht l ng RSI tip tc t li nhun. Vic nhn ni cho php chng ta tch ly li nhun v tip tc quan st RSI v th trng. i khi ADX tng nhng khng sc gi sc mua tip tc cao khi RSI t mc vt mua v c th 1 s ngi mua s t lnh i chiu. Lc ny chng ta nn lp tc thot lnh. Hoc chng ta c th pht l RSI cho n khi t mc li nhun mong mun. Di y l lp lun ca 1 h thng m theo ti kh hiu qu. ( nhng nu bn p dng bn phi theo cch thc ca mnh). Tt c nhng con s ti a ra cha c kim tra hay nh gi 1 cch khch quan. Mt v d l ng 20 day MA ch l 1 con s m ti ngh n trong u. Nhng n gip bn c nhng thng tin cn thit bt u v bn c th t xy dng cc nguyn tc giao dch trong khung thi gian thch hp nht. t lnh mua: - ng MA 20 phi tng - Nu ng ADX tng ( ADX hm nay cao hn 0.2 so vi hm qua ) t lnh mua nu ng RSI nh hn 85 - Nu ng ADX khng tng t lnh mua nu ng RSI 14 nh hn 50. Mt s nh giao dch thch la chn RSI mc 60, nhng 1 s khc li chn thp hn 40 Ra khi th trng:

- ng ADX khng cn tng , thot lnh buy nu ng RSI 9 ln hn 75 - Nu ng ADX ang tng , v li nhun ln hn mc mong i. ST

Bollinger Bands
Ch bo Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands l cng c kt hp gia ng trung bnh ng Moving Average v lch chun. Bollinger Bands l cng c phn tch k thut c nhiu tc dng v rt c gi tr cho nh u t. C 3 thnh phn c bn trong ch bo Bollinger Bands: 1. ng trung bnh (Moving Average): s dng mc nh 20 phin; SMA (20) 2. Di trn (Upper Band): di trn thng c lch chun l 2, c tnh ton t d liu gi 20 phin. C v tr nm trn ng trung bnh SMA (20). 3. Di di (Lower Band): di di thng c lch chun l 2 v nm di ng trung bnh SMA (20)

C 3 phng php chnh s dng Bollinger Bands: - Phm vi hot ng ca cc di. - Vt ngng ca di Bollinger Bands. - Chin lc mua bn quyn chn (option). Phm vi hot ng ca di Bollinger Bands Gia di trn v di di ca Bollinger Bands l phm vi hot ng ca phn ln ng gi. Rt him khi ng gi di chuyn ra khi ng Bollinger Bands, ng gi c xu hng xoay quanh ng trung bnh SMA(20). Tn hiu mua: nh u t mua hoc mua ri khi ng gi rt thp hn di di ca Bollinger bands. Tn hiu bn: nh u t bn hoc bt u ngng mua ri khi ng gi nm ngoi di trn ca Bollinger Bands.

Nhng phm vi nn thn trng: Nu theo trng phi ch ng th nh u t nn mua hay bn khi ng gi ng vo cc di ca Bollinger Bands. Nh u t cng nn ch xem khi ng gi di chuyn nm ngoi trn hoc di ng Bollinger Bands v sau gi ng ca li nhy vo trong ng Bollinger Bands th y l c hi mua hoc bn khng. Cch mua bn trn l cch gim bt thua l khi ng gi thot ra khi ng Bollinger Bands trong mt khong thi gian ngn. Tuy nhin, cch ny cng b qua nhiu c hi sinh li. Mt thi cc khc hn vi cch trn l cch s dng vt ngng ca di Bollinger Bands. Vt ngng ca di Bollinger Bands V c bn th y l phng php tri ngc hn v c nhiu im u th hn vi phng php phm vi hot ng ca di Bollinger Bands. iu kin cn trc khi vt ngng th phi c nhiu phin cng c mc gi ngng. Nu gi ng ca nm ngoi ng Bollinger Bands th chng ta phi s dng cc ch bo khc v ng thi s dng ng h tr hay khng c ra quyt nh ph hp.

Tn hiu mua: ng gi phi nm cao hn di trn ca Bollinger Bands v trc c nhiu phin cng c mc gi ny. Cc ch bo khc cng xc nhn iu tng t trn. Tn hiu bn: ng gi nm thp hn di di ca Bollinger Bands v cc ch bo khc cng m ch iu ny. Ngoi ra Bollinger Bands cng c th c s dng o cng hng i ca xu hng gi:

- Xu hng gi tng mnh khi ng gi c khuynh hng lun nm na trn ca

Bollinger Bands, tc l phm vi gia di trn v ng trung bnh SMA(20). Lc , SMA(20) l ng h tr ng cho xu hng gi. - Ngc li, xu hng gim gi mnh xy ra khi ng gi thp hn na di ca Bollinger Bands; c gii hn bi ng trung bnh SMA(20) v di di ca Bollinger Bands. Lc ny SMA(20) s l ng khng c ng cho xu hng gi. S dng Bollinger Bands rt thch hp vi trng phi da vo dao ng gi kinh doanh. V th n rt hu ch cho cc nh u t mua bn option. Chin lc mua bn quyn chn (option) C 2 cch c bn kinh doanh option da vo s dao ng gi: 1. Chn mua option khi mc dao ng gi nh, vi hy vng mc dao ng gi s tng ln bn option mc gi cao hn. 2. Chn bn option khi mc dao ng gi cao, vi hy vng mc dao ng gi s gim v sau mua li option ny vi gi r hn. Bollinger Bands s em li cho nh u t option nhng tng kinh doanh chc chn hn khi option tng i mc (dao ng mc cao) hoc option tng i r (dao ng mc thp).

Tn hiu mua: khi option tng i r th Bollinger Bands co li ng k, mua option v d nh hp ng chng khon 2 chiu (straddle) hoc hp ng chng khon 1 chiu (strangle). + Lp lun: sau khi t ngt di chuyn nhanh th ng gi c khuynh hng cng c lng tin mt phm vi gi no (trading range). Sau khi ng gi bnh n; v d nh Bollinger Bands c nhng gi tr gn ging nhau trong mt vi phin. Sau thng th ng gi s bt u di chuyn tr li. V vy mua option khi Bollinger Bands tht cht li, y l chin lc thng minh.

Tn hiu bn: khi option tng i mc, lc Bollinger Bands m rng ra ng k th nh u t nn bn option straddle hoc stragle. + Lp lun: sau khi ng gi tng hoc gim ng k, cc thnh phn ca ng Bollinger Bands b tch ri nhau qu xa trong nhiu phin giao dch. Sau ng gi c khuynh hng tr v trng thi cng c v s tr thnh km dao ng. V l do , khi cc thnh phn ca Bollinger Bands cch xa nhau th ng gi c kh nng trong tng lai s b tht cht li.

Stochastic Indicator
- Ch bo Stochastic (Stoc) l ch s cn bn cho khuynh hng ca th trng. Trong giai an tng gi (bull market) th ch s ny i ln, cn trong giai an gim gi (bear market) th ch s ny i xung. - Ch s ny c cu to bi 2 ng: %K , %D v c tnh tan nh sau: %K = (gi hin hnh gi thp n) / (gi cao n gi thp n) Vi n l s phin giao dch trong giai an ang xt (mc nh thng dng l 14) %D = (%K x + %K x-1 + %K x-2) / 3 L trung bnh 3 phin ca %K, trong x l s phin hin hnh. - C 2 dng stochastic: ng nhanh (fast stochastic), ng chm (low stochastic). ng nhanh nh hng cc k n gi trong khi ng chm ch n thun l kt qu cn bng ca ng nhanh. - Ch s stochastich c gii hn t 0 n 100, nhng phn ln n nm quanh v tr 20-80, n phn nh cc vng qu bn (oversold) v vng qu mua (oversbought). i khi n nm nhng vng 25-75 l nhng vng ht sc nguy him thc hin mua v bn v ti nhng vng ny thng khng c nhiu thng tin h tr. Cch s dng ch bo Stochastic: y l 1 trong nhng ch s dng nhn bit s o chiu ca th trng. 1. Thng thng nhng vng overbought/oversold l nhng vng ch bo c s bin ng. Tn hiu bn khi ch bo stoc tng mnh ln trn 80 v cho tn hiu mua khi stoc ri xung di 20. 2. Khi fast stochastic (%K) cc low stochastic (%D) v hng t di ln s cho tn hiu mua, vic ny c hiu qu cao khi nm trong vng di 20. Tng t, khi %K ct %D t trn xung s cho tn hiu bn, iu ny c hiu qu cao khi nm trong vng trn 80. 3. Phn k: Khi ng gi tng nhng ng stochastic gim th cho tn hiu bn. Khi

ng gi gim m ng stochastic tng th s cho tn hiu mua. Mt tn hiu mnh xy ra khi c 3 tn hiu trn u cho ra 1 tn hiu mua hay bn. i khi ti nhng lc th trng t nh th stochastic cng nm v tr cao nht v khi th trng y th stochastic cng v tr thp nht. y cng l du hiu nhn bit that ra hay nhy vo ca nhng nh u t. Trong v d di y Stochastic indicator bt u trn 80 lc cui thng 2 khi gi nm khang 9450, sau gi tng nhanh n mc 9470. Sau l c nhng bin ng nh, v 1 t du hiu phn k y gi rt xung trong nhng ngy sau .

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Ch s RSI gii quyt vn ca nhng dch chuyn bt thng v gii quyt nhu cu v mt bin gii hn trn v di khng i. Ch s RSI c xc nh theo cng thc sau: RSI = 100 100/(1+RS) RS = Trung bnh gi ng ca tng ca x ngy/Trung bnh gi ng ca gim ca x

ngy S ngy c s dng trong tnh ton l 14 ngy theo th hng ngy; s dng th tun s ngy s l 14 tun. xc nh c cc gi tr trung bnh i ln, chng ta cng tng s im t c trong cc ngy gi tng trong 14 ngy v chia tng s cho 14. xc nh gi tr trung bnh i xung, chng ta cng tng s im b mt trong 14 ngy gi gim v chia li cho 14. Sau cng tng i RS c xc nh bng cch chia trung bnh gi tng cho trung bnh gi gim. Gi tr RS ny sau c a vo trong cng thc tnh RSI. S lng ngy c th thay i bng cch thay i gi tr ca x. V d minh ha:

ng RSI (s dng RSI 14 ngy) trong trng hp ny chng ta c th ly 2 mc bin l 80 (overbought) v 20 (eoversold), biu cho thy RSI ang i xung khi gp mc 80 nh vy gi s khng th vt hn mc trc v bn nn mua khi gi rt xung ti lc m ng RSI chm mc 30 ( chng ta nn chn 30 thay cho 20 trong trng hp ny). Tuy nhin r hn th cn kt hp vi ng Stochastic Oscillator hay ADX. S dng RSI trong h thng mua bn (trading system): 1. Cc mc ca RSI: 70% (thng dng l 80%) l mc m nh u t bn qu nhiu (overbought), 30% (thng dng l 20%) l mc m nh u t mua qu nhiu (oversold). Mua khi th trng mc oversold v bn khi th trng overbought lu ch p dng iu ny cho 1 thi k bin ng cn khi ang hnh thnh 1 xu hng th s khng ng. 2. EMA nh l vai tr ca ng h tr hay khng c (support or resistance). Mua khi RSI tng ln trn EMA v bn khi RSI ri xung di EMA. EMA l 1 tnh hiu tr v thng a ra tn hiu mua khi vt qua thi k uptrend. 3. Bullish divergence (tn hiu phn k mua): tn hiu mua khi ng gi ang i xung trong khi RSI th ang tng, tng t bearish divergence (tn hiu phn k bn): tn hiu bn khi ng gi tng trong khi ng RSi th li gim. Mt hn ch ca s phn k (divergence) l chng c gng bo trc 1 xu hng o chiu thay v xc nh theo 1 xu hng.

4. Dng th: xu hng, khng c/h tr, tam gic (triangles), u-vai (head and shoulders) khi p dng RSI n ging nh ng dn cho gi. Ci d l dng th: xu hng, tam gi l quan im c nhn ph thuc vo ch quan ca tng traders nn khng th s dng trong trading system. B cc ca RSI v Bollinger Bands: Chng ta p dng Bollinger Bands (BB) nghin cu ch bo RSI. Tn hiu mua xy ra khi RSI rt xung di di di ca BB (lower BB), tn hiu mua xut hin khi RSI tng vt qua di trn ca BB (upper BB). y l nhng ch bo tng phn xu hng v chng ta cn phi s dng thm vi b lc ca xu hng. Chng ta c th thm vo ch bo MACD vo b lc xu hng nh sau: nu MACD > 0 th xu hng i ln. Hnh minh ha:

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (1)

y l ti liu c Nguyn Thanh Qu v L Trung Dng lc dch t cun Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques ca Steve Nison. LI GII THIU

Bn c mun hc mt h thng k thut c cht lc qua hng trm nm s dng, nhng gn nh t c ph bin? Mt h thng kh linh hot, c th kt hp vi bt k cng c k thut no ca phng Ty? Mt h thng mang n cho bn s thch th khi s dng nh l sc mnh ca n? Nu mun, BIU K THUT HNH NN NHT BN l th bn cn. Bn c th thy c gi tr ca n trong vic cung cp cho bn nn tng ca phn tch k thut. S dng biu hnh nn Nht Bn s gip bn hon thin kh nng phn tch th trng. Tp trung chnh vo th trng M, nhng nhng cng c v k thut c th p dng cho bt k th trng no. Biu hnh nn c dng cho vic theo di, suy on v bo v trong hot ng u t. N cng c th c dng cho hng ha giao sau, hp ng quyn chn hay bt c u phn tch k thut c p dng. Khng cn phi bn khon, lo lng nu bn cha h nhn thy biu hnh nn. Nhng kin thc ny l mi vi bn. Thc ra, n cng l mi i vi nhiu ngi M v chu u. Nu bn l mt ngi phn tch k thut dy dn, bn s khm ph ra cch kt hp biu hnh nn vi cng c k thut khc ca bn c th to ra mt sc mnh tng hp ca k thut. Nhng phn kt hp biu hnh nn vi cng c k thut phng Ty s lm cho bn thch th. Nu bn l mt ngi phn tch k thut nghip d, bn s thy biu hnh nn hiu qu nh th no khi n l phng php phn tch biu c lp. MT S THNG TIN CN THIT HIU VN

Mt s bn c th c nghe n biu hnh nn. Nhiu ngi th cha. Thng m*i hai nm 1989, Ti (Steve Nison) vit mt bi bo gii thiu v biu hnh nn, ngay lp tc thu ht c s quan tm. iu ny ha ra ti l mt trong s t nhng ngi M c hiu bit v k thut c t hng trm nm ca ngi Nht. Ti vit tip nhng bi bo, nhiu bui trnh by, dy hc v c phng vn trn truyn hnh v bo ch khp t nc. u nm 1990, Ti vit mt bi gii thiu ngn cho lun n Nh k thut Th trng ca ti v nhng biu hnh nn. N cha ng nhng ti liu rt c bn gii thiu, v n l thng tin cha ng trong nhng biu hnh nn M. Ti liu ny c nhiu ngi a thch. Trong vng vi thng, Merrill Lynch, nh xut bn nhn c hn 10.000 yu cu. TI HC BIU HNH NN NH TH NO? Ti sao, chnh ti thng c hi C mt h thng kin thc lu nh* vy m gn nh* khng c bit n phng Ty?. Ngi Nht c gng gi b mt? N l s thiu thng tin M? Ti khng bit cu tr li, nh*ng phi mt vi nm nghin cu tng hp tt c li vi nhau. Ti gp kh nhiu may mn. C l s kin nhn v kh nng cu may ca ti l s kt hp cn thit nhng ng*i khc khng c. Nm 1987, ti quen bit mt nh mi gii ng*i Nht. Mt ngy kia, trong khi ti v c y ang trong vn phng, c y ang xem mt trong s nhng cun sch v biu bng ting Nht ca c y. C y ku ln, Nhn ny, mt ca s (a window). Ti hi c y ang ni v ci g. C y ni rng ca s (a window) cng tng t nh mt khong trng (a gap) trong k thut ca ph*ng Ty. C y tip tc gii thch, khi nhng nh k thut ph*ng Ty s dng thnh ng in vo ch trng th ngi Nht ni ng ca s. Sau c y cn s dng cc thnh ng khc. Ti s dng my nm sau khm ph, nghin cu v phn tch bt c ci g ti c th bi nhng biu hnh nn. iu tht khng d dng. Him c ti liu ting Anh v ch ny. Kin thc ban u ca ti vi s gip ca nh mi gii ngi Nht v thng qua vic ti t v v phn tch nhng biu hnh nn. Vi thng sau, ti m*n c mt cun sch, n nh h*ng rt ln n cuc sng chuyn nghip ca ti. Gim c vn phng MTA, Shelley Lebeck, a cho ti mt cun sch v Biu hnh nn ca Seiki Shimizu v dch bi Greg Nicholson (Xut bn bi Tokyo Futures Trading Publishing Co.) c mang v t Nht. N cha ng khong 70 trang v nhng biu hnh nn v *c dch sang ting Anh. c c n ging nh tm thy mt c o trong mt hoang mc. Ti nhn ra rng cun sch mang li rt nhiu kin thc. Phi mt nhiu thi gian v cng sc nm c ni dung ca n. Ti cng thy rng, rt kh khn dch mt ti chuyn dng nh* vy t ting Nht sang ting Anh. Ti mang cun sch bn mnh hng thng tri, c i c li, ghi ch, p dng nhng kin thc cho nhng biu hnh nn c ti v bng tay. Ti nghin ngm v nhi nht nhng khi nim v thut ng mi. Ti cng may mn c c s gip ca tc

gi, Seiki Shimizu, ngi tr li nhiu cu hi ca ti. Mc d Shimizu khng ni ting Anh, nhng ng*i dch cun sch, Greg Nicholson, gip ti rt nhiu. Cun sch mang li nn tng cho s nghin cu tip phn cn li ca ti v nhng hnh nn. Khng c cun sch , cun sch ny cng khng th c. tip tc pht trin kh nng trong vic nghin cu biu k thut hnh nn, ti tm kim nhng ngi Nht ang hnh ngh, c thi gian v am m, ni vi ti v ch ny. Ti gp mt th*ng gia ngi Nht, Morihiko Goto, ng*i s dng nhng biu hnh nn v sn sng chia s thi gian v s am hiu qu gi ca anh y. Anh ta ni vi ti rng gia nh ca anh y s dng nhng biu hnh nn qua nhiu th h. Chng ti dnh nhiu thi gian bn lun v lch s v cch s dng ca nhng biu hnh nn. Anh ta ng l mt kho kin thc v gi. Ti cng c mt s l*ng ln ti liu *c dch. Vic thu *c thng tin hnh nn ting Nht nguyn bn l mt vn . Vic dch n l ca ngi khc. C khong 400 ngi dch t ting Nht sang ting Anh M. Ti phi tm c mt ng*i phin dch khng th ch dch thng th*ng, m phi c s hiu bit c bit su rng v phn tch k thut. V im ny ti may mn c s gip ca nhng dch v ngn ng New York. Gim c, Richard Solberg, mang li s gip rt cn thit. Anh ta l mt ngi him c. Anh ta l mt ng*i M tri chy ting Nht, c hiu bit v s dng phn tch k thut. Tr*c khi nhng bi bo gii thiu v biu hnh nn ca ti xut hin cui nm 1989, ch c vi dch v cung cp biu hnh nn M. By gi, c qu nhiu nhng dch v cung cp nhng biu ny. Chng bao gm: Bloomberg L.P. (New York, NY); Commodity Trend Service Charts (North Palm Beach, FL); CompuTrac TM (New Orleans, LA); CQG (Glenwood Springs, CO); Ensign Software (Idaho Falls, ID); Futuresource TM (Lombard, IL); Knight Ridder Commodity Perspective (Chicago, L). Khi bn c cun sch ny, c l s c thm nhng dch v cung cp nhng biu hnh nn. Tnh ph bin ca nhng dch v ny ngy mt gia tng mnh m. S tha thi ca nhng dch v cung cp nhng biu hnh nn lm chng cho tnh ph bin v s hu dng ca n. V SAO BIU K THUT HNH NN THU HT C S CH CA NHNG TH*NG GIA V NHNG NH U T* KHP TH GII? Ti nhn c nhng cuc gi v fax t khp th gii ngh c bit thm nhiu thng tin v biu k thut hnh nn. Ti sao li c s quan tm rng khp ? C rt nhiu l do v sau y l mt vi trong s : 1. Tnh linh hot ca biu hnh nn. Ngi s dng c th bao gm t nhng ngi ln u tin dng theo phong tro, cho n nhng ngi dy dn kinh nghim. l bi v biu hnh nn c th c s dng c lp hoc kt hp k thut phn tch

khc. Li th ch yu ca biu k thut hnh nn c cho l do nhng k thut ny c th c s dng thm vo, ch khng phi thay th cc cng c k thut khc. 2. Biu k thut hnh nn c s dng cho hu ht nhng mng cha bao gi c s dng M. Cho n nay, k thut ny gn nh c hng truyn thng c pht trin qua hng trm nm tm ti v th nghim ca vng Vin ng. 3. Hi c nhng thut ng cha ng hnh nh c s dng m t cc mu hnh. Ti nhn din t iu g c khin bn quan tm? ch l mt v d cho thy thut ng Nht Bn lm tng thm s hng th ca biu hnh nn, mt khi bn tri qua, bn s khng th khng s dng n. 4. Ngi Nht gn nh chc chn bit tt c cc phng php phn tch k thut ca phng Ty, nhng ngi phng Ty hu nh khng bit g v k thut ca ngi Nht. Ngi Nht s dng phi hp biu k thut hnh nn cng vi cc cng c k thut ca phng Ty. Ti sao chng ta khng lm nh h? 5. D liu cn thit to ra biu hnh nn cng tng t nh biu dng then chn ( l gi m, cao, thp, ng). iu ny rt c ngha khi n chc chn rng bt c k thut phn tch no s dng c vi biu dng then chn (nh cc ng trung bnh, xu hng, sng Elliott, s hiu chnh, v.v ) u c th p dng vi biu hnh nn. Nhng y mi l im mu cht. Biu hnh nn c th mang li nhng du hiu m biu dng then chn khng c. Bn cnh , c vi mu hnh c th cho php bn chim u th i vi nhng ngi s dng biu k thut truyn thng ca phng Ty. S dng biu hnh nn thay v biu dng then chn bn c kh nng s dng tt c k nng phn tch nh khi bn dng vi dng then chn, nhng biu hnh nn mang li cho bn mt kh nng phn tch rng ln hn nhiu. MT VI HN CH Cng nh tt c nhng phng php s dng biu , nhng mu hnh biu hnh nn ty thuc vo s gii thch ca ng*i s dng. iu ny c th coi l mt hn ch. Nu bn c nhiu kinh nghim vi biu hnh nn trong lnh vc ca mnh, bn s thy nhng mu hnh, v nhng s bin i no ca nhng mu hnh ny, hot ng tt. Trong trng hp ny, ch quan c th khng phi l nguy him. Vi nhng kinh nghim bn c *c qua k thut hnh nn, bn s khm ph ra nhng s kt hp no hot ng tt trong th tr*ng ca bn. iu ny c th mang li cho bn mt li th i vi nhng ngi khng dnh thi gian v sc lc trong vic theo di st sao th trng nh* bn. Nh s cp v sau, vic v cy nn i hi phi c gi ng. Bi vy, bn c th phi i kt thc c mt du hiu bun bn c gi tr. Thnh thong, ti c th s dng nhng biu tng gi c c mt du hiu mua bn hn l i n khi ng ca ca ngy . V d, c mt mu hnh tng gi tim nng trong biu ngy. Lc , ti nn i gi ng ca hon thnh mu hnh. Nu biu hng gi cng cho thy mt ci ch bo tng gi trong ngy y, th ti c th khuyn co mua (nu xu h*ng l tng) thm ch tr*c khi ng ca.

Nhng biu hnh nn cung cp nhiu du hiu mua bn rt hu ch. Tuy nhin, chng khng cung cp nhng mc tiu gi. C nhng ph*ng php khc d bo nhng ch gi (nh* nhng ngng h tr hoc chng c tr*c , s hiu chnh, v.v ). Mt s ng*i thc hin vic mua bn da vo cc du hiu, v gi thng v cho n khi c s xut hin mu hnh khc. Nhng mu hnh lun lun cn *c nhn trong bi cnh khi n xut hin v trong quan h vi nhng du hiu k thut khc. Vi hng trm biu trong sut cun sch ny, ng ngc nhin nu bn thy c nhng mu m ti b qua trong nhng biu . cng l nhng v d v nhng mu hnh, i khi khng hot ng. Nhng hnh nn s khng cung cp mt cng c thng mi chnh xc tuyt i. Tuy nhin chng b sung thm vo bng mu k thut ca bn. Nhng biu hnh nn cho php bn s dng nhng phng php k thut nh khi bn s dng vi biu then chn. Nh*ng nhng biu hnh nn cho bn nhng du hiu m biu then chn khng th. Vy ti sao phI s dng biu then chn? Trong t*ng lai gn, biu hnh nn c th tr nn ph bin nh* biu then chn. Tht ra, ti a ra d on rng khi ngy cng c nhiu nh k thut cm thy thoi mi, thch nghi vi nhng biu hnh nn, h s khng cn s dng nhng biu then chn. Ti s dng mt k thut phn tch gn 20 nm. V by gi, sau khi khm ph tt c cc li ch ca n, ti ch s dng nhng biu hnh nn. Ti vn s dng tt c cc cng c k thut truyn thng ca phng Ty, nh*ng nhng biu hnh nn mang li cho ti mt ci nhn tng th v nhng th tr*ng. Tr*c khi i su vo nhng biu hnh nn, ti s ni ngn gn v s quan trng ca phn tch k thut. i vi nhng ngi cha s dng phn tch k thut, on tip theo nhn mnh ti tm quan trng ca phn tch k thut. Vi nhng ngi hiu bit v nhng li ch ca phn tch k thut, c th b qua on ny. TM QUAN TRNG CA PHN TCH K THUT Tm quan trng ca phn tch k thut gm nm kha cnh di y: u tin, trong khi s phn tch c bn c th cung cp quy m cung cu, nhng t l gi/li nhun, nhng thng k kinh t hc, v.v, khng c thnh phn tm l hc ko theo trong s phn tch . Vy m nhiu th trng, i khi b nh hng, thm ch nng n, bi s a cm. John Manyard Keynes pht biu, Khng c g bt hnh nh* mt chnh sch u t* hp l trong mt th gii v l. Phn tch k thut cung cp c ch duy nht o s v l hin din trong mi th trng. Th hai, nhng k thut cng l mt thnh phn quan trng trong vic khp mnh vo k lut giao dch. K lut trong giao dch gip nhng thng gia lm du bt nhng cng thng. Nu bn nghi ng iu ny, hy giao dch trn giy (tp mua bn bng cch vit ra giy). Ri th bun bn vi nhng qu ca chnh mnh. Bn s sm khm ph s cng thng, nghi ng, bn khon trong cch m bn mua bn v nhn nhn th tr*ng. Nhng k thut cng mang li tnh khch quan trong vic a ra cc quyt nh. Chng cung cp mt c ch thit lp nhng im vo/ra, t nhng t l ri ro/li nhun, hoc nhng mc dng/thot. S dng chng s gip bn pht trin k nng qun l ri ro v li nhun trong giao dch.

Th ba, i theo cc nh phn tch k thut cng kh quan trng d bn khng hon ton tin t*ng vo s s dng ca h. Bi v i khi k thut l l do chnh cho mt s chuyn ng ca th tr*ng. Th t, l thuyt bc ngu nhin gii thch vic th trng c nhng ngy m gi khng c mi quan h vi gi ca ngy tip theo. V cui cng, quan st hot ng gi l ph*ng php trc tip v c th tip cn d dng nht nhn ra nhng mi quan h cung cu ca th trng. C th c nhng tin tc quan trng khng c ph bin, nhng bn c th ch i n phn nh vo gi. Nhng ngi c kin thc su rng v nhng chuyn ng ca th trng c th s mua hoc bn khi gi c hin thi phn chiu thng tin ca h. V vy, gi c hin thi phn chiu tt c thng tin sn c, c ph bin rng khp hoc mt nhm no . NN TNG LCH S Thng qua vic tm hiu ci c, chng ta hc ci mi Ch*ng ny cung cp cho bn nn tng pht trin ca phn tch k thut Nht Bn. Nhng ngi mun i ngay vo phn ct li ca cun sch (k thut v cch s dng biu hnh nn), c th b qua ch*ng ny, hoc tr li sau khi bn hon thnh phn cn li ca quyn sch. N l mt lch s hp dn. Ngi ni ting nht Nht Bn s dng gi qu kh d on chuyn ng gi tng lai l huyn thoi Munehisa Homma. ng tch ly c gia sn khng l qua vic bun bn go trong nhng nm 1700. Tr*c khi ni v Homma, ti mun cung cp tng quan ca nn kinh t, da vo m Homma c th pht t. Thi k ny bt u t nhng thp nin cui ca th k 16 n gia th k 18. T 1500 n 1600, Nht Bn l mt n*c khng ngng ni chin. Tr*c nhng nm u 1600, ba t*ng Nobunaga Oda, Hideyoshi Toyotomi, v Ieyasu Tokugawa hp nht Nht Bn trong c mt thi k 40 nm. S dng cm v nhng chin cng ca h c ghi li trong lch s v vn hc dn gian ca ngi Nht. Nhng qui tc trong qun i Nht c ph bin nhiu th k tr thnh l mt phn trong cc thut ng gn lin vi biu hnh nn. V khi bn so snh vi n, th vic bun bn cng i hi nhiu k nng cn thit nh nhng k nng chin thng mi trn nh. Nhng k nng nh* vy bao gm k hoch chin l*c, tm l hc, s cnh tranh, chin l*c phng th, v.v thm ch c may mn. V vy khng c g ng ngc nhin khi sut cun sch ny bn s gp nhng thut ng v hnh nn ging nh khi ang trong chin tr*ng. l night and morning attacks, advancing three soldiers, counter attack, gravestone, v.v Kinh t rung t ln mnh, nh*ng quan trng hn, c s m rng v d dng trong ni th*ng. Tr*c th k 17, mt th tr*ng quc gia tin trin thay th h thng nhng th trng c lp v a ph*ng. Khi nim ny v th trng tp trung s gin tip dn dt ti s pht trin ca phn tch k thut Nht Bn. Hideyoshi Toyotomi l*u tm ti Osaka nh* th ca Nht v khuyn khch n pht trin nh* mt trung tm thng mi. Osaka, Yodoya Keian tr thnh l mt thng nhn ca Hideyoshi (mt trong s ba tng ln nht). Yodoya c kh nng phi th*ng trong vic chuyn ch, phn phi, v thit lp gi c ca go. Anh ta tr nn rt giu c.

n nm 1710, Trung tm mua bn go ra i. Sau 1710, s trao i, mua bn k gi c tin hnh cc kho. Vic mua bn go c ghi li qua nhng t bin nhn. Nhng bin nhn ny tr thnh nhng hp ng t*ng lai u tin tng c bun bn. Mi gii go tr thnh l nn tng ca s thnh v*ng ca Osaka. cho bn thy tnh ph bin ca nhng hp ng tng lai ny, xem v d sau: nm 1749, c tng s 110.000 bao go c giao dch Osaka. Vy m, khp c Nht Bn ch c 30.000. Quay li vi Homma. Munehisa Homma sinh nm 1724 trong mt gia nh giu c. Khi Homma lm ch doanh nghip gia nh vo nm 1750, anh ta bt u bun bn, trao i go ti a ph*ng, trong thnh ph cng Sakata. Sakata l mt trong nhng vng thu gom v phn phi go. Khi cha Munehisa Homma cht, Munehisa phi gnh vc trch nhim qun l ti sn ca gia nh. y thc s l mt kh khn vi mt thanh nin tr. Vi gia ti ny, Homma i ti trung tm giao dch go ln nht Nht Bn Osaka, v bt u giao dch nhng hp ng t*ng lai. tm hiu tm l ca nhng nh u t*, Homma phn tch gi go li li thi gian trc, thi ca Yodoya. Homma cng lp h thng truyn thng ca ring mnh. Sau khi chim u th th tr*ng Osaka, Homma m rng bun bn vi Edo (by gi gi Tokyo). ng ta s dng nhng s hiu bit su sc ca mnh tch ly c mt gia ti khng l. Vi nm sau Homma tr thnh mt c vn ti chnh ca Chnh ph v *c phong tc v Samurai. Homma mt nm 1803. Sch ca Homma v th tr*ng c vit vo th k 18. Nhng nguyn tc giao dch ca ng *c p dng trong th trng go, v c pht trin thnh ph*ng php lun biu hnh nn *c s dng Nht Bn v v sau ph bin khp Th gii.

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CU TO BIU HNH NN Khng c mi cho, bn khng th qua sng vi mt chic xung Mt s so snh trc quan v s khc nhau ca biu dng then chn v biu hnh nn th d minh ha. Hnh 3.1 l biu dng then chn ph*ng Ty quen thuc. Hnh 3.2 l biu hnh nn vi cng thng tin v gi nh trong biu then chn.

V NHNG CY NN v biu then chn hng ngy cn c gi m, cao, thp, v ng. ng thng ng trn biu then chn th hin gi cao v thp ca phin. ng nm ngang bn tri ng thng ng l gi m phin, bn phi ng thng ng l gi ng phin.

Hnh 3.3 cho thy cch xy dng mt biu then chn v mt biu hnh nn vi cng mt d liu. Mc d nhng biu then chn v hnh nn hng ngy s dng cng d liu, d nhn thy chng *c v khc nhau. Ch dy nht ca cy nn *c gi l thn nn. N m t phm vi gia gi m v ng ca phin . Khi thn nn mu en (t kn) n c ngha l ng phin thp hn m. Nu thn nn mu trng (rng), th n c ngha rng ng phin cao hn m (mu sc ca biu hnh nn c th thay i bi ngi s dng). Nhng ng mng trn v d*i thn nn l nhng bng nn. Nhng bng nn ny i din cho nhng cc tr gi ca phin. Bng trn thn nn *c gi l bng trn v bng d*i thn nn *c gi l bng di. Do , nh ca bng trn l gi cao nht phin v y ca bng di l gi thp nht phin. i vi ngi Nht, thn nn l s chuyn ng gi quan trng. Nhng bng nn thng *c xem xt nh* nhng dao ng gi bn ngoi. Nhng hnh t 3.4 n 3.7 th hin vi cy nn hay gp. Hnh 3.4 l mt cy nn en di, tng ng vi mt phin gim gi khi th trng m ca gn vi gi cao v ng ca gn vi gi thp. Hnh 3.5 cho thy s i lp ca mt thn nn en di, v do tng ng l mt phin tng gi. Gi c c mt phm vi rng v th tr*ng m gn gi thp v ng gn gi cao ca phin. Hnh 3.6 cho thy nhng cy nn c thn nh v chng din t cuc chin gia bn bn v bn mua. Hnh 3.7 th hin nhng cy nn khng c thn, thay vo , chng l nhng ng nm ngang. l nhng v d ca nhng cy nn c gi l doji.

Ngi Nht c bit nhn mnh v mi quan h gia gi m v ng, v chng th hin nhng cm gic ca ngy giao dch. Ting Nht c mt thnh ng: Gi u tin ca bui sng l phng hng ca ngy. Nh* vy gi m l phng hng cho phin giao dch. N th hin manh mi u tin v ph*ng h*ng ca ngy. l thi gian khi tt c tin tc v nhng li n t m trc *c sng lc v sau th hin trong cng mt lc. Sau hot ng nhn nhp u phin, nhng ng*i mua v nhng ng*i bn tim nng c mt chun nh gi, t h c th ch i mua v bn. C s ging nhau gia vic giao dch trn th trng v s giao chin trong mt trn nh. Trong ngha ny, gi m cung cp mt ci nhn tng quan ca chin tr*ng v mt mi quan h tm thi gia hai phe. i khi, nhng th*ng gia ln c gng li th trng khi m phin bi nhng lnh mua hoc bn ln. Ting Nht gi l cuc tn cng bui sng (a morning attack). Ch rng iu ny t*ng t nh trong qun i. Ting Nht s dng nhiu s so snh vi qun i, nh vy chng ta s thy trong sut cun sch. THUT NG HNH NN V CM GIC TH TR*NG Phn tch k thut l cch duy nht o lng cm xc ca th tr*ng. Nhng tn gi ca nhng biu hnh nn Nht Bn lm cho iu ny r rng hn. Nhng tn gi cha ng nhng hnh nh ny c s dng m t sc khe ca th tr*ng khi nhng mu ny *c hnh thnh. Sau khi nghe nhng thnh ng ngi n ng b treo c (hanging man) hay m my en bao ph (dark-cloud cover), bn c ngh rng th tr*ng ang trong mt trng thi mnh kho? Tt nhin khng! l hai mu hnh gim gi v tn ca chng r rng truyn t trng thi m yu ca th tr*ng. i khi din bin th tr*ng c th khng mnh kho lc hnh thnh nhng mu ny, n khng loi tr kh nng th tr*ng s tr li mnh kho na. Khi c s xut hin ca m my en bao ph, trng thi mua cn c cn nhc k. Ty thuc vo xu h*ng chung v nhng yu t khc, trng thi bn mi c th *c bt u. C nhiu quan nim v mu hnh mi trong cun sch ny, nh*ng nhng tn m t bi ting Nht khng ch lm cho biu hnh nn tr nn ng nghnh, m cn d nh hn khi nhng

mu l tng gi hoc gim gi. V d, trong ch*ng 5 bn s hc v sao Hm (evening star) v sao Mai (morning star). Nu khng bit nhng mu hnh ny trng nh th no hoc chng ng g v th tr*ng, ch nghe tn gi ca chng, bn ngh ci no l tng gi v ci no l gim gi? Tt nhin, sao Hm xut hin tr*c khi bng ti p xung, nghe nh du hiu gim gi v ng nh vy ! Sao Mai, ngi sao bui sng xut hin trc bnh minh l tng gi. Mt im then cht khc l gi ng, im quan trong i vi cc nh phn tch k thut. H c th i gi ng xc nhn mt tn hiu vt thot quan trng t biu . Nhiu h thng giao dch trn my tnh (v d, nhng ng trung bnh trt, ) u da trn gi ng phin. Nu c nhng lnh mua hoc bn ln *c y vo th trng ti/gn thi im ng phin, vi mc ch lm nh h*ng n gi ng phin, ting Nht gi hnh ng ny l cuc tn

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cng ban m (a night attack).

NHNG MU HNH O CHIU Bng ti nm ngay pha tr*c Nhng nh phn tch k thut ch i nhng manh mi gi c c th bo ng cho h mt s thay i trong tm l th trng v xu hng. Nhng mu hnh o chiu l k thut tm ra manh mi . Nhng thut ng ch mu hnh o chiu phng Ty nh hai nh, hai y, u vai, nh v y c lp, v.v Cho n nay, thut ng mu hnh o chiu c phn c hiu v dng sai. Nghe thut ng c th ngh rng mt xu hng c kt thc mt cch t ngt v sau c s o chiu sang xu hng mi. iu ny khng phI lc no cng din ra. S o chiu ca xu hng thng xut hin t t, trong mt khong thi gian, nh s thay i c bn v tm l. Mt tn hiu o chiu ca xu hng hm rng xu hng trc rt c kh nng thay i, nhng khng nht thit l ngc li. iu ny rt quan trng hiu c vn . So snh mt xu hng tng vi mt chic t ang hng v pha trc vi vn tc khong 50 km/h. Khi n phanh bt sng, chic xe chy chm li. Ci n phanh l mt ch bo o chiu ch ra rng xu hng trc ( y, chic xe ang chy) gn nh kt thc. By gi chic xe gn nh khng chuyn ng, ngi li xe s quay xe li, ng yn hoc quyt nh chy tip? Chng ta khng th bit nu khng c thm manh mi. Hnh 4.1 n 4.3 l mt vi v d v nhng g c th xy ra sau khi mt tn hiu o chiu nh xut hin. Xu hng tng gi trc , c th thay i thnh thi k i ngang ca gi. Sau mt xu hng mi, ngc vi xu hng c c th bt u

xem hnh 4.1. Hnh 4.2 th hin xu hng tng gi c c th hi phc li nh th no. Hnh 4.3 minh ha cho xu hng tng gi c th bt ng o chiu thnh ra xu hng gim gi.

Hy nh rng khi ngi ta ni mu hnh o chiu, n ch c ngha rng xu hng trc dng nh thay i nhng khng nht thit ngc li. Nhn ra s xut hin ca nhng mu hnh o chiu c th l mt k nng ng gi. thnh cng trong kinh doanh i hi bn phi nm c xu hng v c nhng g c th sp din ra. Nhng ch bo o chiu l cch m th trng cung cp tn hiu cho bn, ging nh tn hiu giao thng, v d nh Hy thn trng Xu hng ca qu trnh thay i. Ni cch khc, tm l ca th trng thay i. Bn nn iu chnh giao dch tng ng vi din bin mi ca th trng. C rt nhiu cch tham gia v thot ra khi th trng vi cc ch bo. Chng ta s bn lun v chng t u n cui cun sch ny. Mt nguyn tc c bn tham gia th trng ti mt v tr mi (da trn mt tn hiu o chiu) ch khi tn hiu theo chiu hng ca xu hng chnh. V d, trong mt th trng tng gi, mt mu hnh o chiu nh xut hin. Tn hiu gim gi ny khng cho php mt hnh ng bn ra. iu ny l bi v xu hng chnh vn l tng. D sao, n cng l tn hiu dng mua. Nu l mt xu hng gim ang thnh hnh, s hnh thnh ca mu hnh o chiu nh tng t c th c s dng bn ra. By gi, chng ta s i vo tm hiu nhng mu hnh u tin trong s nhng mu hnh o chiu. HAMMER V HANGING MAN Hnh 4.4 cho thy hai cy nn c bng di di v phn thn nh. Phn thn nm nh trong phm vi giao dch ca phin. S khc nhau ca hai cy nn trong hnh li cun ch n c th ch ra s tng hay gim gi ty thuc vo v tr chng xut hin trong mt xu hng. Nu mt trong hai cy nn xut hin trong mt xu hng gim,

 l mt du hiu ch ra rng xu hng gim c th kt thc. Trong bi cnh , cy nn c gi l mt hammer.

Hy xem hnh 4.5. Ngy nay ngi Nht gi n l takuri. T ny cng gn ging nh ang c gng o su ca dng nc vi cm gic ang ng y. Nu mt trong hai cy nn trong hnh 4.4 xut hin sau mt qu trnh tng gi, n mun ni vi bn rng qu trnh c th s kt thc. N ging nh l mt im g, nn c gi l hanging man (xem hnh 4.6). Ci tn ny xut pht t thc t l trng n ging nh ngi n ng b treo c vi hai chn lng lng. C v khng bnh thng khi nhng cy nn ging nhau li c th ch ra c tng v gim gi. So vi nhng hnh mu quen thuc ca phng Ty (island top v island bottom) bn s nhn ra rng quan nim c vn dng ging ht nhau. S xut hin ca island cng ch ra s tng hoc gim gi ty thuc v tr ca n trong mt xu hng. Mt island sau mt xu hng tng di l gim gi, trong khi mt island tng t sau mt xu hng gim l tng gi. Hammer v hanging man c th c on nhn bi ba tiu chun sau: 1. Phn thn nn nm phn trn ca phm vi giao dch. Mu sc ca thn nn khng quan trng. 2. di ca bng di c gp hai ln di ca phn thn tr ln. 3. N khng nn c, hoc c bng trn rt nh. Bng di cng di, bng trn cng ngn, thn ca nn cng nh cng c ngha tng gi (i vi hammer) hay gim gi (i vi hanging man). Mc d thn nn ca hammer hay hanging man c th mu trng hay en, mc tng ng k hn nu thn ca hammer mu trng, mc gim cng ng k hn nu thn ca hanging man mu en. Nu thn ca hammer mu trng, n mang ngha r rng rng th trng b bn tho gn nh sut phin v sau bt tr li vo lc ng phin gn vi gi cao ca phin. gn nh l khi ngun ca s tng gi. Nu thn ca hanging man mu en, n th hin rng gi ng phin khng th tr li mc gi m phin. iu hm kh nng gim gi.

iu quan trng l bn phi i s xc nhn vi hanging man. Lp lun nh th no v s xut hin ca hanging man? Thng thng l trong bi cnh th trng th hin ht kh nng tng gi th hanging man xut hin. Vo phin hanging man, th trng m phin /gn gi cao, ri b bn tho, sau phc hi, ng phin /gn gi cao. Sc mnh ny khng phi l kiu hnh ng gi bn ngh rng hanging man c th l nh o chiu. Nhng kiu hnh ng gi ny ch ra rng th trng bt u hnh ng bn tho (sell off), n tr nn d b tn cng tip khi chng ta cha kp phng. Tn hiu xc nhn c th l mt khong trng gim gi (gia phn thn nn phin hanging man vi gi m phin k tip), hoc c th l mt phin gim gi vi gi ng phin thp hn gi ng phin hanging man.

Hnh 4.7 l mt v d minh ha v sao nhng cy nn tng t nhau c th l gim gi (hanging man ngy 3/7) hoc tng gi (hammer ngy 23/7), mc d c hai cy nn trong v d ny c thn mu en. iu ny cho thy mu sc ca thn nn khng phi l vn quyt nh. Hnh 4.8 cho thy mt tr*ng hp khc ca hai mu hnh ny. C mt mu hnh hanging man gim gi gia thng t bo hiu kt thc qu trnh tng gi bt u vi hammer tng gi vo ngy 2 thng 4. Mt bin th ca hanging man hin ra vo gia

thng ba. Bng di ca n di, nhng khng gp hai ln chiu cao ca thn nn. Tuy nhin, cc tiu chun khc (phn thn nn nm phn trn ca phm vi giao dch v gn nh khng c bng trn) th hin. N cng c xc nhn bi mt gi ng thp hn phin k tip. Hnh mu ny mc d khng phi l mt hanging man l tng, bo hiu kt thc ca qu trnh tng gi bt u t mt thng trc. Biu k thut hnh nn, cng nh biu hoc k thut nhn dng khc, u c nhng nguyn tc ca n. Nh*ng khng phi l nhng quy tc cng rn. Nh trnh by trn, c nhng tiu chun nht nh lm gia tng tm quan trng ca hanging man v hammer. Vi hanging man gia thng ba, bng di ca n c th khng gp hai ln chiu cao ca thn cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu. Nu bng di di hn, mu hnh cng hon ho. Hnh 4.9 cho thy mt lot hammer tng gi c nh s t 1 ti 4 (hammer 2 vn c xem l mt hammer mc d n c bng trn nh). im ng lu ca biu ny l tn hiu mua c a ra u nm 1990. Mc gi thp mi xut hin hammer 3 v 4 khi gi thp hn hn c mc gi thp ca thng 7 ti hammer 2. Tuy nhin, khng c tip tc ca xu hng gim. Hammer 3 v 4 cho thy rng nhng ngi u c gi ln nm quyn iu khin. Hammer 3 khng phi l mt hammer l tng khi bng di khng gp 2 ln chiu cao thn nn. D sao n cng phn nh s tht bi ca nhng ngi u c gi xung. Hammer 4 cng c kt lun mt s o chiu y c v xut hin. Trong hnh 4.10 hammer 1 v 3 l nhng y. Hammer 2 bo hiu s kt thc ca xu th gim trc , xu hng gi chuyn t gim sang i ngang. Hammer 4 khng hiu qu. Hammer ny ni ln mt im quan trng v nhng hammer (hoc bt k mu

hnh no m ti cp n). Chng cn phi c quan st trong bi cnh ca hot ng gi trc . Trong biu ny, hy xem hammer 4. Ngy hm trc ngy hammer ny, th trng th hin qua mt cy nn en gim gi rt mnh (vi a shaven head v a shaven bottom m phin gi cao v ng phin gi thp ca phin).

N th hin sc mnh gim gi cc ln. Hammer 4 cng xuyn qua mc h tr trc ngy 24 thng 1. Xem xt nhng nhn t gim gi nu trn, nn thn trng i s xc nhn ca du hiu tng gi trc khi hnh ng theo hammer 4. V d, mt cy nn trng c gi ng phin cao hn gi ng phin hammer 4 c th *c coi l

 th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (4)

mt s xc nhn. Hnh 4.11 l biu hnh nn s dng gi theo tng gi. Quan st k biu ny, chng ta c th thy rng mt hammer hnh thnh trong gi u tin ca ngy 11/4. Nh hammer 4 trong hnh 4.10, gi gim to ra khong trng nhng cy nn trng sau c gi ng phin cao hn. iu ny l tn hiu xc nhn y.

Cy nn gi th 2 ca ngy 12/4, mc d trong hnh dng nh mt hammer, nhng khng chnh xc l mt hammer. Mt hammer l mt mu hnh o chiu y. Cy nn ny cng khng phi l mt hanging man, khi hanging man thng xut hin sau mt xu hng tng gi. Trong tr*ng hp ny, nu cy nn ny xut hin gn mc gi cao ca cy nn en trc , th n *c xem xt nh mt hanging man .

Hnh 4.12 cho thy mt hammer u thng t, nh du s kt thc ca xu hng gim gi mnh bt u t nhng thng trc . Bng di di (gp nhiu ln chiu cao thn nn), mt thn nn nh, v khng c bng trn to nn mt hammer kinh

in.

Hnh 4.13 th hin mt hanging man kinh in. Trong hnh 4.14 chng ta thy s vn ng tng ca gi, t u thng hai, kt thc vi ch n l s xut hin lin tc ca 2 hanging man. Tm quan trng ca s xc nhn du hiu gim gi sau hanging man *c phn nh trong biu ny. Mt cch xc nhn du hiu gim gi l gi m ca phin tip theo thp hn gi phn thn ca hanging man. Lu rng sau s xut hin ca hanging man u tin, th trng m phin cao hn trc . Tuy nhin, sau hanging man th hai, th tr*ng m phin thp hn gi phn thn ca hanging man, th trng bt u i xung.

Hnh 4.15 minh ha mt thn nn en, vi gi ng phin thp hn phin hanging man, c th coi l cch khc ca s xc nhn du hiu gim gi. Ba cy nn s 1, 2, v 3 l mt lot hanging man. Thiu s xc nhn du hiu gim gi sau cy nn 1 v 2 c ngha l xu hng tng gi vn cn sc mnh. Quan st hanging man 3. Cy nn en i sau n l tn hiu xc nhn gim gi ca hanging man ny.

Hnh 4.16 cho thy mt s khc thng ca th trng t cui 1989 n u 1990. Quan st v tr tng gi dng li. N dng hanging man tun th ba nm 1990. Biu ny minh ha mt iu l mt mu o chiu xut hin khng c ngha rng gi s o chiu, nh* chng ta cp trong chng 3. Mt ch bo o chiu ng rng xu h*ng trc c th chm dt. iu chnh xc vi nhng g xy ra y. Sau s xut hin mu hnh o chiu hanging man, xu hng tng gi trc chm dt vi xu h*ng mi l chuyn ng i ngang ca gi. Hanging man khc xut hin trong thng by. Ln ny gi nhanh chng o chiu t tng thnh gim.

Hnh 4.17 minh ha mt mu hnh hanging man kinh in trong thng nm. N cho thy mt thn nn rt nh, khng c bng trn, v mt bng di di. Thn nn en ngy tip theo xc nhn hanging man ny bo hiu mt thi gian gim gi. (Lu rng

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (5) NHNG MU HNH O CHIU
ENGULFING Hammer v hanging man l nhng mu hnh mt cy nn ring bit. Chng c th gi nhng tn hiu quan trng v sc khe ca th tr*ng. Tuy nhin, a s cc tn hiu t cc cy nn u da vo s kt hp ca nhiu cy nn ring l. Mu hnh engulfing l mu u tin trong s cc mu hnh da trn s kt hp ca nhiu cy nn. Mu hnh engulfing l tn hiu o chiu vi hai thn nn i lp v mu sc. Hnh 4.18 th hin mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Th trng ang trong mt xu hng gim gi, xut hin mt thn nn trng tng gi p o thn nn en trc . iu ny cho thy rng lc mua ln t lc bn. Hnh 4.19 minh ha mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Th trng ang trong mt xu hng tng gi, thn nn trng b ln t bi thn nn en, l tn hiu ca mt s o chiu nh. iu ny cho thy bn bn ginh quyn iu khin th trng. C ba tiu chun i vi mu hnh englfing:

hammer tng gi t u thng t).

1. Th tr*ng phi trong mt xu hng r rng, tng gi hoc gim gi, thm ch c th l xu hng ngn hn. 2. Hai cy nn to thnh mu hnh engulfing. Thn nn th hai phi p o thn nn trc (n khng cn phi ln t nhng bng nn). 3. Thn nn th hai ca mu hnh cn phi c mu i lp vi thn nn u tin. (ngoi l ca quy tc ny l nu thn nn u tin ca mu hnh nh, nh* vy n gn nh l* mt doji (hoc l mt doji). Do , sau mt xu th gim gi ko di, mt thn nn trng nh xu b p o bi mt thn nn trng rt ln c th l mt s o chiu y. Trong mt xu hng tng gi, mt thn nn en b ln t bi mt thn nn en rt ln c th l mt mu o chiu gim gi).

Ging mu hnh engulfing ca Nht l reversal day ca ph*ng Ty. Reversal day ca ph*ng ty xut hin khi, trong thi gian xu hng tng (hoc gim gi), mt mc cao (hoc thp) mi *c to ra vi gi ng thp hoc cao hn gi ng ca ngy tr*c . Bn s khm ph ra l mu hnh engulfing c th *a ra tn hiu o chiu khng sn c vi reversal day ca ph*ng Ty. iu ny cho php bn chim u th hn nhng ngi s dng reversal day truyn thng nh* mt tn hiu o chiu. iu ny *c trnh by qua cc hnh 4.21, 4.22, v 4.23. Hnh 4.20 cho thy cho nhng tun bt u t 15/5 v 22/5 hnh thnh mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Trong hai tun cui thng by, mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi xut hin. Mu hnh engulfing tng gi thng chn l s phc hi t y ca qu trnh sell off tr*c .

Hnh 4.21 l biu du th hng thng vi c hai mu hnh engulfing tng gi v gim gi. Cui nm 1985, c st gim mnh 20$ bt u. Thng ba v thng t nm 1986 xut hin hai cy nn ca mu hnh engulfing tng gi. N bo hiu s kt thc ca xu hng gim gi. Vn ng gi bt u vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi ny kt thc bi mu hnh engulfing gim gi vo gia nm 1987. Mu hnh engulfing tng gi nh trong thng hai v thng ba nm 1988 kt thc xu hng gim gi bt u vo gia nm 1987 bi mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Sau mu hnh engulfing tng gi ny, xu hng gim ca th trng gim chuyn thnh xu hng i ngang trong nm thng. Mu hnh engulfing gim gi nm 1987 v 1990 mang li mt li th ca mu hnh engulfing N c th cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu khng th c nu s dng tiu chun reversal day trong k thut ph*ng Ty. Mt quy tc cho top reversal day ca phng Ty (hoc, trong tr*ng hp ny, reversal month) l mt mc cao mi phi *c to ra bi s vn ng ca gi. Nhng mc cao mi ch*a *c to ra bi thn nn en nhng thi k nm trong mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Hnh 4.22 l mt v d khc th hin nhng biu hnh nn c th cho php chim u th so vi nhng cng c ca biu then chn thng thng. Quan st hot ng gi trn biu trong hai ngy 7 v 8 thng by. Mt ln na, mt khi khng c mc cao mi c to ra, khng c du hiu ca mt s o chiu nh *nu s dng tiu chun reversal day truyn thng ca ph*ng Ty. Tuy nhin, vi biu hnh nn, c mt tn hiu o chiu gim gi, l mu hnh engulfing gim gi, xut hin. Hai cy nn 1 v 2 u thng su trng nh mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Tuy nhin, mu hnh engulfing tng gi l mt ch bo s o chiu xu hng y. iu

ny c ngha n phi xut hin sau mt xu th gim (hoc i khi y ca mt di hp). u thng su, khi mu hnh engulfing tng gi xut hin, n khng hot ng chnh xc v n khng xut hin trong mt xu th gim.

Hnh 4.23 l mt lot cc mu hnh engulfing gim gi. Mu hnh 1 khin th trng bc sang xu hng i ngang trong mt di hp t xu hng tng gi trc ca n. Mu hnh 2 l mt s ngh ngi tm thi trc khi hi phc sc mnh tng gi. Nhng mu hnh engulfing gim gi 3, 4, v 5 u *a ra tn hiu o chiu khng c c

vi k thut ca ph*ng Ty (khi khng c mc cao mi no c to ra bi s vn ng ca gi th chng khng phi l nhng tun o chiu *c xem xt).

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (6)

DARK-CLOUD COVER Mu o chiu tip theo l dark-cloud cover (xem hnh 4.24). N l mt mu hnh hai cy nn bo hiu mt s o chiu nh sau mt xu hng tng gi, hoc i khi nh ca mt di hp. Cy nn u tin ca mu hnh hai cy nn ny l mt thn nn trng mnh m. Cy nn th hai c gi m cao hn gi cao ca phin trc (c ngha cao hn nh ca bng trn). Tuy nhin, vo khong cui phin th hai, th tr*ng ng phin gn mc thp ca phin v bn trong thn nn trng ca phin tr*c. Mc xm nhp vo phn thn cy nn trng cng ln th kh nng mt nh s xut hin cng cao. Nhiu nh k thut Nht Bn yu cu s xm nhp ln hn 50% mc ng phin gim vo phin tng trc . Nu cy nn en khng kt thc thp hn na thn nn trng, tt hn l i thm s xc nhn ca mu hnh gim gi dark-cloud cover.

L do cn bn ng sau mu hnh gim gi ny c gii thch d dng. Th trng trong mt xu hng tng. Mt cy nn trng tng gi mnh m, tip theo l mt khong trng tng gi u phin k tip. n y, nhng ngi u c gi ln nm hon ton quyn iu khin th trng. Nhng sau khng thy c s tip tc tng gi. Thc t l th tr*ng kt thc /gn mc gi thp ca phin v bn trong phn thn nn trng ca phin trc. Trong bi cnh nh vy, nhng ngi mua s suy ngh li v v tr ca h. Nhng ngi ang i bn ngn hn by gi c mt im chun t mt lnh dng ti mc gi cao mi ca phin th hai ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover.

Sau y l mt s yu t lm tng thm tin cy ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover: 1. Mc xm nhp ca gi ng thn cy nn en vo thn cy nn trng trc cng ln, c hi cho mt nh cng cao. Thn nn en ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover ch xm nhp mt phn thn nn trng. Nu thn nn en bao trm ton b thn nn trng ca phin trc th mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi xut hin. V vy, mt mu hnh engulfing gim gi c ngha o chiu nh hn. Nu mt thn nn trng, di kt thc trn mc gi cao ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover, hoc engulfing gim gi th n c th bo trc s vn ng khc. 2. Trong mt xu hng tng gi ko di, nu c mt cy nn trng mnh m m gi thp (khng c bng di), ng gi cao (khng c bng trn), v phin sau l mt thn nn en di, m gi cao v ng gi thp, sau s xut hin phin gim mnh, khng c bng trn v bng di. 3. Nu thn nn th hai (thn nn en) ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover c gi m trn mt mc khng c mnh v sau rt, n chng minh rng nhng ngi u c gi ln khng th iu khin c th trng. 4. Nu vo u phin th hai c mt khi lng giao dch rt ln, tnh trng qu mua c th xut hin. V d, khi lng giao dch rt ln ti mt mc gi m cao mi c th c ngha rng nhiu ng*i mua mi quyt nh nhy ln tu. Ri sau th tr*ng bn tho. C l s khng qu lu tr*c khi m ng nhng ngi mua mi hiu ra rng con tu m h nhy ln l tu Titanic. i vi nhng ngi giao dch th trng tng lai, khi lng giao dch cc ln cng l mt tn hiu cnh bo khc. Hnh 4.25 th hin s khc nhau gia mu hnh dark-cloud cover v engulfing. Hai thn nn trong thng su nm 1989 to thnh mt dark-cloud cover. Mt thn nn trng di, tip theo l mt thn nn en, di. Thn nn en m mt mc cao mi, sau ng gn mc thp ca n v bn trong thn nn trng trc . Th tr*ng tri phiu c du hiu gim nhit sau khi c s o chiu nh ny xut hin. Tuy nhin s gim st mnh ch n vi tun , khi mu hnh engulfing c c th ha. Chng ta c th thy thn nn en ca dark-cloud cover bao trm mt phn thn nn trng tr*c . Thn nn en ca mu hnh engulfing gim gi bao bc ton b thn nn trng trc n.

Trong hnh 4.26 c ba mu hnh dark-cloud cover c nhn din. Nhng tn hiu gim gi khc nhau c xc nhn qua mi mu hnh ny. Chng ta hy xem xt tng mu hnh ring l.

Dark-cloud cover 1. y l mt bin th ca mu hnh dark-cloud cover l tng. Trong dark-cloud cover ny, thn nn en ca ngy th hai m mc gi cao ca ngy hm trc, thay v trn n. ch l mt tn hiu cnh bo, nhng cn c nhn nhn l nh l mt yu t ph nh. Mu hnh dark-cloud cover ny cng th hin mt n lc bt thnh ca nhng ngi u c gi ln trong vic vt qua mc khng c mc

gi cao gia thng hai. Dark-cloud cover 2. Khng k mu hnh ny, c l do khc cho vic cn phi thn trng mc 21$. Mt tin k thut l: mt mc h tr sau khi b ph b c th chuyn i thnh mc khng c mi. iu xy ra ti 21$. Ghi nh rng mc h tr c 21$ b xuyn thng mt ln vo ngy 9 thng ba, c chuyn thnh mc khng c. Nhng n lc b ph sn th hin qua mu hnh ny trong hai ngy u tin ca thng t* minh ha cho mc khng c ny. (Ch*ng 11 s cp n khi nim c th hon i vai tr ca mc h tr v khng c). Dark-cloud cover 3. Mu hnh ny cng th hin c mt s tht bi ti mt ngng khng c c thit lp nhng mc gi cao cui thng t. l nhng v d th hin mu hnh dark-cloud cover trng vi nhng mc khng c. Khi nim ny th hin l nhng khu vc c s hi t ca nhiu ch bo k thut th cng quan trng. l tiu im chnh ca phn 2 ca cun sch S kt hp ca k thut hnh nn vi nhng cng c k thut khc.

Hnh 4.27 ch ra rng trong thi gian u thng ba, dark-cloud cover 1 l s tm dng ca mt xu hng tng. S iu chnh xy ra sut tun sau . Hai dark-cloud cover na c hnh thnh trong thng t. Dark-cloud cover 2 ng rng s tng gi mnh trong hai ngy c l kt thc. Dark-cloud cover 3, gia thng t, th c bit gim gi mnh. Trong hnh 4.28, chng ta nhn thy gi c xu h*ng tng bt u t ngy 10/2 n khi t ngt dng vo gia thng hai vi s xut hin ca dark-cloud cover.

 th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (7)

PIERCING PATTERN Trong nhiu bui, sau khi trnh by v mu hnh gim gi dark-cloud cover, khng lu sau s c ngi hi v mu i lp. C. V n *c gi l mu hnh piercing. Nh bit, trong khi dark-cloud cover l mt s o chiu nh, i lp vi n, piercing l mt s o chiu y (xem hnh 4.29). N gm hai thn nn trong mt th trng sa st. Thn nn u tin mu en v thn nn th hai l thn nn trng di. Thn nn trng ny gi m phin rt thp, di c mc gi thp ca thn nn en trc . Ri gi c y cao hn, to ra mt thn nn trng di tng i, ng phin trn im chnh gia ca thn nn en phin trc.

Mu hnh piercing tng gi gn ging vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi. Trong mu hnh engulfing tng gi, thn nn trng p o ton b thn nn en tr*c . Vi mu hnh piercing tng gi, thn nn trng ch ln t mt phn thn nn en trc . Trong mu hnh piercing, mc xm nhp vo phn thn nn en cng ln th kh nng mt y o chiu cng cao. Mt mu hnh piercing l t*ng s c mt thn nn trng m ng phin cao hn na thn nn en ca phin tr*c. Nu th tr*ng kt thc d*i mc gi thp ca mu hnh engulfing tng gi hoc piercing bng mt thn nn en di, th mt xu hng gim gi khc li tip tc. Tm l hc ng sau mu hnh piercing c gii thch nh sau: th tr*ng trong mt xu th gim st. Thn nn en gim gi cng c trng thi ny. Th tr*ng m phin sau thp hn qua mt khong trng gim gi. Nhng ngi u c gi xung ang quan st th tr*ng vi s mn nguyn. Ri th tr*ng bt ln, v pha gi kt thc phin trc, nhng khng ch dng , m kt thc r rng trn mc . Nhng ngi u c gi xung ang cn nhc li v tr ca h. Nhng ngi ang xem xt mua ngh mc thp mi c th khng gi c v c l n lc mua vo. Mu hnh piercing cng c mt s yu t (t 1 n 4) lm tng thm tin cy ging nh mu hnh dark-cloud cover, nhng ngc li (xem li mu hnh trc). Trong phn v mu hnh dark-cloud cover, ti cp rng mc d nhiu nh k thut Nht Bn yu cu s xm nhp ln hn 50% mc ng phin gim vo phin tng trc , vn c s linh hot trong quy tc ny. Vi mu hnh piercing, tnh linh hot khng bng. Cy nn trng ca mu hnh piercing cn phi y qua c na thn nn en. L do cho s km linh hot ca mu hnh piercing tng gi so vi mu hnh dark-cloud cover l thc t trong k thut ca ngi Nht c ba mu hnh khc, tn gi l on-neck, in-neck v thrusting (xem hnh 4.30 n 4.32) c cu to c bn ging nh mu hnh piercing, nhng chng cn c xem nh tn hiu gim gi khi thn nn trng nm di na thn nn en.

Nh* vy ba mu hnh gim gi tim nng ny (hnh 4.30 n 4.32) v mu hnh piercing tng gi (hnh 4.29) c cng mt nh dng. S khc nhau ca chng nm mc ca s xm nhp bi thn nn trng vo trong thn nn en. Vi mu hnh onneck, thn nn trng (thng l cy nn nh) ng phin gn vi gi thp ca phin trc. Vi mu hnh in-neck, thn nn trng ng phin mt mc xm nhp khng ng k vo thn nn trc (cng thng l cy nn trng nh). Mu hnh thrusting cn phi l mt thn nn trng mnh m hn, di hn so vi mu hnh in-neck, nhng ng phin vn khng nm trn na thn nn en trc . Vi nhng mu hnh ny, khi gi vn ng d*i mc thp ca cy nn trng, cc thng gia (traders) bit rng l thi gian bn. (Lu rng mu hnh thrusting trong hnh 4.32 l gim gi trong mt th tr*ng xung dc, nh*ng nh mt phn ca mt th trng tng gi, nn c cn nhc k. Mu hnh thrusting cng l tng gi nu n xut hin hai ln trong vng vi ngy). Khng qu quan trng nh tng mu hnh trong cc hnh 4.30 ti n 4.32. Ch cn nh khi nim l thn nn trng cn phi y cao hn na ca thn nn en gi mt tn hiu ca s o chiu y. Trong hnh 4.33, nhng ngi u c gi xung thnh cng rc r khi th trng xung n mc thp mi vo ngy 27 thng t, *c th hin qua cy nn en di. Ngy hm sau th tr*ng m thp hn. Gi m ny tr thnh mc gi thp ca ngy v Boeing ng phin bn trong thn nn en ca ngy tr*c . Hai cy nn vo ngy 27, 28 thng t to thnh mu hnh piercing tng gi.

Hnh 4.34 cho thy mt mu hnh piercing kinh in trong tun 26 thng ba. Hy lu cch m thn nn trng theo sau mt thn nn en di, rt yu. Thn nn trng m phin mt mc gi thp mi. Sau gi tng mnh m, ng phin gi b y ln qu na thn nn en phin trc, l mt ch nh mnh rng nhng ngi u c gi xung mt kh nng iu kin th trng. Thn nn trng l mt phin giao dch rt si ng. N m phin mc gi thp nht (c ngha khng c bng di) v ng phin mc gi cao nht (khng c bng trn). Lu rng mu hnh piercing tng gi ny mang ti s kt thc ca t bn tho (sell off) bt u vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi, ngy 19 v 20 thng ba. Trn biu La m ny cng c mt bin th ca mu hnh piercing trong tun t 12 thng ba. L do n l mt bin th bi v thn nn trng c gi m d*i thn nn en, nhng khng thp hn gi thp nht ca phin trc. D sao, v thn nn trng ng phin cao hn na thn nn en ca phin trc l mt du hiu cnh bo rng xu hng gim gi trc kt thc. Hnh 4.35 minh ha cch nhng biu hnh nn c th gip ng*i phn tch c mt cm gic v sc khe ca th tr*ng nhanh chng nh th no. Trong thng hai nm 1990, c mt ngi mi gii hi ti ngh sao v gi la mch. Ti him khi theo di giao dch la mch. D sao ti cng xem xt biu gi ca la mch v ni vi anh y rng xu th gim st c l kt thc. Ti sao? Ti lu anh y rng trong tun t 20 thng hai, mt mu hnh piercing kinh in xut hin. Ti cng thy mu hnh piercing ny trng vi mt ln test thnh cng nhng mc gi thp u thng hai. iu ny lm tng thm c hi cho mt y i (a double bottom) c to thnh.

Hnh 4.36 minh ha xu th gim st bt u vi mu hnh engulfing gim gi cui nm 1984 chm dt vo gia nm 1987 vi s xut hin ca mu hnh piercing. Mc d th trng khng phc hi gi sau tn hiu o chiu y ny, nhng n cng d bo s kt thc ca p lc bn tho ko th trng i xung t cui nm 1984 n gia nm 1987. Sau mu hnh piercing, th tr*ng tr nn n nh trong vng mt nm, v sau tng gi tr li.

 th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (8)

NHNG NGI SAO Mt nhm ca nhng mu hnh o chiu l nhng mu hnh c nhng ngi sao. Mt ngi sao l mt thn nn nh c khong trng vi thn nn ln i trc n (hnh 5.1). Cng c coi l ngi sao min l phn thn ca n khng chng ln thn nn trc. Mu sc ca ngi sao khng phi l vn quan trng.

Nhng ngi sao c th xut hin nhng nh hoc nhng y (i khi mt ngi sao trong thi gian mt xu th gim c gi l ht ma ri (a rain drop). Nu ngi sao l

mt doji thay v mt thn nn nh, th n c gi l mt ngi sao doji (hnh 5.2). Ngi sao, c bit l ngi sao doji, l mt cnh bo xu hng tr*c c th kt thc. Thn nh ca ngi sao din t mt s b tc trong cuc chin gia nhng ngi u c gi ln v u c gi xung. Trong mt xu hng tng gi, nhng ngi u c gi ln ang tch ly. Vi s hin ra ca mt ngi sao sau mt thn nn trng di trong xu hng tng, l mt tn hiu ca s thay i t nhng ng*i mua ang iu khin n mt s b tc gia bn mua v bn bn. S b tc ny cng c th xut hin bi s gim bt trong lc mua hoc s tng ln trong lc bn. Ngi sao nh ni vi chng ta sc mnh ca xu hng tng gi tr*c *c xua tan v th tr*ng d b tn cng bi mt s i xung. iu tng t cng ng, nhng ngc li, i vi mt ngi sao trong mt xu hng gim. Ngha l, nu mt ngi sao i sau mt cy nn en di trong mt xu th gim st, n phn nh mt s thay i trong mi tr*ng kinh doanh. V d, trong mt xu hng gim gi, nhng ngi u c gi xung nm quyn iu khin, nh*ng mt s thay i *c nhn thy trong s xut hin ca ngi sao, n bo hiu mt mi trng trong nhng ngi u c gi ln v u c gi xung tr nn cn bng hn. Sc mnh xung gi b trit tiu. Lc khng phi l mt kch bn thun li cho mt s tip tc gim gi ca th tr*ng. Ngi sao l mt phn ca bn mu hnh o chiu, bao gm: evening star, morning star, doji star v shooting star. Trong cc mu hnh ny, phn thn ca ngi sao c th mu trng hoc en. THE MORNING STAR Mu hnh the morning star (hnh 5.3) l mt mu hnh o chiu y. Tn ca n xut pht t vic, nh* ngi sao bui sng bo trc bnh minh, n bo tr*c gi c s cao hn. N gm c mt thn nn cao, en theo sau l mt thn nn nh c khong trng gim gi (hai thn nn ny c mt mu ngi sao c bn). Thn nn th ba c thn mu trng, m vn ng ca gi vo bn trong thn nn en phin u tin. Mu hnh ny l mt tn hiu cho thy nhng ngi u c gi ln nm quyn iu khin. Ti s phn tch mu hnh ba cy nn ny bng cch tm hiu tng thnh phn ca n hiu yu t cn bn ng sau pht biu trn.

Th tr*ng trong mt xu hng gim gi khi chng ta nhn thy mt thn nn en. Vo thi gian ny nhng ngi u c gi xung nm quyn iu khin. Ri mt thn nn nh xut hin. iu ny c ngha rng nhng ng*i bn ang mt kh nng iu khin th trng xung thp hn. Phin tip theo, thn nn trng mnh m chng minh rng nhng ngi u c gi ln nm quyn. Mt mu hnh the morning star l tng c mt khong trng tr*c v sau thn nn gia (ngi sao). Khong trng th hai ny th him c, nh*ng s thiu n khng c v lm yu i sc mnh ca mu hnh ny.

Hnh 5.4 ch ra mt mu hnh morning star tng gi ny sinh trong thi gian t 19 n 21 thng m*i hai. S tng gi bt u vi mu hnh ny kt thc bi mu hnh darkcloud cover vo 26, 27 thng m*i hai. Hnh 5.5 th hin rng thng m*i mc gi thp c to ra qua mt ngi sao (thn nn nh tun u thng m*i). Tun sau ngi sao ny, th tr*ng l mt thn nn trng mnh m. Thn nn trng ny hon thnh mu hnh the morning star. Thn nn en sau thn nn trng ny hnh thnh mt mu hnh dark-cloud cover. Th trng tm thi gim gi. Du sao, mu hnh the morning star cng tr thnh mt y chnh. Hnh 5.6 cho thy mt bin th ca mu hnh the morning star, trong c hn mt ngi sao (trong tr*ng hp ny c ba ngi sao). Lu rng thn nn nh th ba (ngi sao th ba) l mt mu hnh the hammer, n v thn nn nh trc n cng to nn mt mu hnh engulfing tng gi.

 th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (9)

THE EVENING STAR Mu hnh the evening star l mt mu hnh gim gi i lp vi mu hnh the morning star. N ging vi tn gi bi v sao Hm xut hin trc khi bng ti p xung. Khi

mu hnh the evening star l mt s o chiu nh n cn phi *c hnh ng theo nu n xut hin sau mt xu hng tng gi. Ba thn nn to thnh mu hnh the evening star (xem hnh 5.7). Hai thn nn u tin l mt thn nn di, trng theo sau l mt ngi sao. Ngi sao l gi u tin ca mt nh. Thn nn th ba lm r thm nh v hon thnh mu hnh the evening star. Thn nn th ba c thn mu en, m vn ng ca gi vo bn trong thn nn trng phin u tin. Ti thch so snh mu hnh the evening star vi mt ci n giao thng. n giao thng i t mu xanh (thn nn trng tng gi) ti mu vng (tn hiu cnh bo ca ngi sao) ti mu (thn nn en xc nhn xu hng tr*c chm dt).

V nguyn tc, mu hnh the evening star phi c mt khong trng gia thn nn th nht v th hai v khong trng khc gia thn nn th hai v th ba. Tuy nhin, t kinh nghim ca ti, khong trng th hai ny him khi *c nhn thy v khng cn thit cho thnh cng ca mu hnh ny. Mi quan tm chnh phi l phm vi xm nhp ca thn nn en ngy th ba vo trong thn nn trng ngy u tin. Thot nhn hnh 5.7 nh s o chiu nh hn o (island top) *c s dng bi nhng nh k thut ph*ng Ty. Vic phn tch mu hnh the evening star t m hn ch ra rng n cung cp mt tn hiu o chiu khng c c vi mu hnh island top (xem hnh 5.8). i vi mu hnh island top, mc gi thp ca phin 2 phi trn nhng mc gi cao ca phin 1 v 3. Tuy nhin, mu hnh the evening star ch yu cu mc gi thp ca thn nn th 2 trn mc gi cao ca thn nn 1 l tn hiu ca s o chiu.

Mu hnh the evening star trong hnh 5.9 cho thy ma h nm 1987 thit lp mc gi cao mi ca Dow tr*c khi sp (Ti t hi nu nhng nh k thut ngi Nht s dng nhng biu hnh nn ang nhn thy n!). Hnh 5.10 cung cp mt v d cch m nhng ch bo ca biu hnh nn c th truyn mt tn hiu o chiu khng d thy c vi cng c ph*ng Ty ra sao. Gi cui cng ngy 5 thng chn v hai gi u tin ngy tip theo hnh thnh mt mu hnh the evening star. Ngi sao ca mu hnh ny khng phi l mt nh hn o (island top) da vo phn trnh by nu trn. Trong v d ny, nhng cy nn cung cp mt

ch nh o chiu nh khng phi l sn c vi nh hn o (island top) ca ph*ng Ty. Cng lu rng s tng gi chm dt vi mu hnh the evening star ny c bt u vi mu hnh the morning star vo ngy 4 thng chn.

Mc d thng xut hin sau mt xu hng tng, the evening star cng c th xut hin nh ca mt di hp nu n xc nhn tn hiu gim gi khc (hnh 5.11). l nhng g xy ra vo gia thng t*. Phn ngi sao (ngy th hai) ca mu hnh the evening star trng vi mt ngng khng c. C s cho ngng khng c ti 413$ l l mt ngng h tr trc y t cui thng ba. Ngng h tr c thng i thnh ngng khng c mi. Hy nh iu ny! chnh l s hu ch ca quy tc giao dch. Ch*ng 11 s trnh by chi tit hn v mc h tr v khng c. Trong bt k tr*ng hp no, mc khng c gn 413$ trng vi s xut hin ca mu hnh the evening star nh th cng cng c thm s o chiu ca mu. Hnh 5.12 cho thy mt mu hnh the evening star *c xc nh vo gia thng m*i hai. Ngi sao l mt thn nn trng mnh m v theo sau l mt thn nn en, yu. Mt bin th ca mu hnh the evening star xut hin gia thng m*i mt. L do n l mt bin th l mu hnh the evening star thng th*ng c mt thn nn trng di i tr*c ngi sao, ri thn nn en sau ngi sao. Chng ta khng nhn thy thn nn di, trng hoc en y. Chng ta c th xem n nh* mt nh, tuy nhin, khng

ch v n gn ging mu hnh the evening star, m cn v s xut hin ca mu hnh hanging man vo ngy 21/11 (phn ngi sao ca mu hnh the evening star). Gi m phin k tip d*i thn nn ca mu hnh hanging man xc nhn mt nh.

Vi yu t lm tng thm s chnh xc mt mu hnh evening hoc morning star c th l mt s o chiu bao gm: 1. Nu c mt khong trng gia cy nn u tin v phn thn ca ngi sao v sau gia thn ngi sao v thn nn th ba.

2. Nu thn nn th ba kt thc tht su vo trong thn nn u tin. 3. Nu c khi lng giao dch thp thn nn u tin v khi lng giao dch cao thn nn th ba. iu ny cho thy mt s gim bt ca lc cho xu h*ng tr*c v

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (10)

mt s gia tng lc iu khin xu h*ng mi. THE MORNING V EVENING DOJI STARS Khi mt doji c mt khong trng trn mt thn nn trong mt th tr*ng ln, hoc mt khong trng d*i mt thn nn trong mt th tr*ng xung, doji *c gi l mt ngi sao doji. Hnh 5.2 cho thy nhng ngi sao doji. Nhng ngi sao doji l mt cnh bo mnh rng xu h*ng tr*c c kh nng thay i. Phin sau phin doji cn phi xc nhn s o chiu xu h*ng. Do mt ngi sao doji trong mt xu hng tng theo sau l mt thn nn en, di m kt thc vo trong thn nn trng xc nhn mt s o chiu nh. Mt mu hnh nh* vy *c gi l the evening doji star (xem hnh 5.13). Mu hnh the evening doji star l mt dng c bit ca mu hnh the evening star thng thng. Mu hnh the evening star thng thng c mt thn nn nh, c gi l ngi sao (thn nn th hai), nhng mu hnh the evening doji star c mt doji nh* mt ngi sao. Mu hnh the evening doji star th quan trng hn bi v n cha ng mt doji. Mt ngi sao doji trong mt xu hng tng th*ng l du hiu ca mt nh sp xy ra. Cn ch rng nu phin sau ngi sao doji l mt thn nn trng vi khong trng cao hn, tn hiu gim gi ca ngi sao doji *c ph nhn. Trong mt xu hng gim gi, nu c mt thn nn en, theo sau l mt ngi sao doji, s xc nhn mt s o chiu y xut hin nu phin tip theo l mt thn nn trng mnh m, kt thc vo trong thn nn en. Mu hnh gm ba thn nn c gi l the morning doji star (xem hnh 5.14). Mu hnh ny c th l mt y rt c ngha. Nu trong mt xu th gim st, mt thn nn en vi nhng khong trng d*i ngi sao doji, tim nng tng gi ca ngi sao doji b mt hiu lc. iu ny cho thy tm quan trng i s xc nhn trong nhng phin tip theo ngi sao doji.

Nu c mt mt ngi sao doji c khong trng tng gi vi thn nn trng (m nhng bng nn khng chm nhau) theo sau l mt khong trng gim gi vi thn nn en (nhng bng nn cng khng chm nhau), ngi sao *c xem xt nh l mt tn hiu ca s o chiu nh chnh. Mu hnh ny c gi l a tr b b ri nh (abandoned baby top), xem hnh 5.15. Mu hnh ny rt him khi xy ra.

iu tng t cng ng, nhng ngc li, cho mt y. c bit, nu c mt ngi sao doji m c mt ch trng tr*c v sau n (nhng bng nn khng chm nhau) n cn phi c xem l mt y chnh. Mu hnh ny c gi l a tr b b ri y (abandoned baby bottom), xem hnh 5.16. Mu hnh ny cng rt him khi xy ra. Mu hnh abandoned baby (a tr b b ri) nh* mt nh/y hn o ph*ng Ty (island top/bottom), hn o l mt doji. Hnh 5.17 minh ha mt ngi sao doji u thng su ch ra xu hng gim gi chm dt. N vn c gi l mt ngi sao mc d bng ca ngi sao doji c s gi ln thn nn en ca ngy tr*c . Khi thn nn trng xut hin sau ngi sao, l s xc nhn thi k st gim qua. Thn nn en tr*c v thn nn trng sau ngi sao doji lm cho ba thn nn ny to thnh mu hnh morning doji star.

Trn thn nn ngi sao doji trn hnh 5.18, gi rt xung 85$. y l mt vng h tr t u thng by. Thc t rng mc gi thp mi khng th gi c l tn hiu tng gi cn *c xem xt. Thm vo mu hnh the morning doji star ny, bn c hai

l do nghi ng mt y. Hnh 5.19 l mt v d c c mu hnh evening doji star v mu hnh evening star thng th*ng. Hot ng gi t thng ba qua thng nm nm 1986 hnh thnh mu hnh evening doji star. Mu hnh ny l s kt thc ca mt qu trnh tng gi bt u

ch mt t thng trc . Mt t bn tho xy ra sau mu hnh evening doji star ny. N chm dt vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi. S tng gi t mu hnh engulfing tng gi kt thc khi c s xut hin mu hnh the evening star vo gia nm 1987.

Trong hnh 5.20, chng ta nhn thy mu hnh the evening doji star vo 17, 18 v 19 thng ba. Mu hnh ny chm dt s tng gi bt u vi mt hammer tun tr*c. Trong tr*ng hp ca Dow Chemical, lu l the evening doji star khng thc s l mt ngi sao. Mt ngi sao doji c thn nn (gi m v gi ng) cn phi trn thn nn ca ngy tr*c, y n khng nh vy. Bi vy, cho php tnh linh hot hn vi nhng ch bo hnh nn vi nhng c phiu. i vi nhng ngi theo di th tr*ng c phiu, trong khi th nghim k thut hnh nn, bn cn phi khm ph rng nhng mu hnh no c th phi c sa i.

Trong hnh 5.21, c th nhn thy mt mu hnh evening doji star xut hin vi tun tr*c khi c t bn tho mnh ca nm 1987. Thn nn trung tm ca mu hnh ny (ngi sao doji) khng c khong trng trn thn nn trng tr*c nh cn phi c i vi mt ngi sao l tng. Tuy nhin, nh cp trong hnh 5.20, cn phi cho php c s thay i vi khi

nim nhng khong trng khi nhng c phiu th*ng m ca ti/hoc rt gn, gi ng ca ca phin trc.

Hnh 5.22 bc l mt s kin rt khc thng v im bo xu sau nhng mu hnh evening doji star. Thn nn t 1 n 3 hnh thnh mt evening star. Ba phin tip theo, t 4 n 6, to thnh mt evening star khc.

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (11)

THE SHOOTING STAR V THE INVERTED HAMMER Mu hnh shooting star gi mt cnh bo mt nh sp xy ra. N trng nh* tn ca n, mt sao bng. N thng th*ng khng phi l mt tn hiu o chiu chnh nh mu hnh the evening star. Nh th hin trong hnh 5.23, shooting star c mt thn nh nm y trong phm vi ca phin vi mt bng trn di. Ging nh i vi tt c cc ngi sao, mu ca thn nn khng phi l quan trng. Mu hnh the shooting star bng hnh nh ni vi chng ta rng th tr*ng m phin gn mc gi thp ca n, ri tng gi v cui cng gim gi kt thc gn gi m. Mt mu hnh shooting star l t*ng c mt thn nn c khong trng vi thn nn trc. Tuy nhin, nh s *c thy trong cc v d biu , khong trng ny khng phi lun lun cn thit. Mt thn nn theo khun shooting star sau mt thi k suy thoi c th l mt tn hiu tng gi. Mu hnh c gi l inverted hammer. Mu hnh the inverted hammer *c trnh by v sau trong ch*ng ny.

Trong hnh 5.24, c th nhn thy vo ngy 2 thng t, mt shooting star gim gi ang bo hiu s rc ri.

Hnh 5.25 minh ha tt cho the shooting star v nhng s bin i ca n. Nhng s bin i ca shooting star bao gm: 1. Shooting star 1 l mt bin th ca shooting star. N khng phi l ngi sao l t*ng bi v khng c khong trng gia nhng thn nn. Tuy nhin n cng chng minh s tht bi ca nhng ngi u c gi ln duy tr s iu khin th trng. 2. Shooting star 2 khng quan trng lm. N c mt phn tiu chun ca mt shooting star (mt ngi sao vi mt thn nh v bng trn di). Tuy th, n thiu mt quy tc quan trng. N khng xut hin sau mt xu hng tng m cng khng nh ca mt di hp. Nh vy, n cn phi *c nhn nh* mt ngy thn nh vi ngha nh b. Mt thn nh (a spinning top) phn nh s do d. Trong kinh doanh, s do d cn phi c ch i. 3. Shooting star 3 c hnh dng ca shooting star nh*ng n khng phi l mt ngi sao, v n khng to ra khong trng t thn nn tr*c. Tuy nhin, ngy ny cn phi

*c nhn trong bi cnh hot ng gi tr*c . nh ca bng trn ca shooting star 3 l mt cuc tn cng mc gi cao u thng tm ti 6.18$. Nhng ngi u c gi ln t lm suy yu mnh ti mc . Soybeans ri ng gn thp ca ngy.

4. Shooting star 4 rt ging shooting star 3. N cng khng phi l mt shooting star l t*ng khi thn n khng to ra khong trng t thn tr*c. l s c gng khc m dao ng ti gn 6.18$. N chng minh rng nhng ngi u c gi ln khng th ginh c quyn iu khin. 5. Shooting star 5 l s tht bi khc ngng khng c. Bn phi ngng m s ngoan c*ng ca nhng ngi u c gi ln trong vic c gng y th tr*ng ln cao hn. Vi mi s tht bi ngng khng c 6.18$, chng ta t hi khi no nhng ngi u c gi ln s khng y ln na. Chng ta c cu tr li vi shooting star 6. 6. Shooting star 6 l c y cui cng b tht bi. Nhng ngi u c gi ln ri cng chu thua. The hammer l kt thc ca t bn tho (sell off).

Hnh 5.26 l v d khc m mu hnh shooting star khng to ra khong trng vi thn nn trc. Tuy nhin, n vn l mt tn hiu o chiu quan trng. Mt ln na chng ta hy xem li shooting star trong bi cnh th trng. N l s tht bi khc ti nhng mc gi cao ca qu ba nm 1989. Mu hnh the shooting star nh du s kt thc ca qu trnh tng gi bt u vi mu hnh the hammer. Hnh 5.27 th hin mu hnh shooting star kinh in, xut hin vo gi u tin ngy 29/5. S gim gi tip theo dng li vi mu hnh engulfing tng gi vo ngy 4/6.

Hnh 5.28 minh ha hai mu hnh shooting star bo trc rt ngha xu hng gim

gi sau s xut hin ca chng.

Hnh 5.29 ch ra rng mu hnh shooting star cng l mt s tht bi mc gi cao thng m*i nm 1989. Hnh 5.30 cho thy mt cp ca mu hnh shooting star. Mi ci nh du s kt thc ca xu hng trc .

 th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (12)

DOJI

Mt doji l mt thn nn c gi m v ng l nh nhau. Nhng v d v doji trong hnh 8.1 n 8.3. Doji l mt ch bo o chiu quan trng

1. S QUAN TRNG CA DOJI : Mt phin doji hon ho c cng gi m v gi ng, tuy vy c tnh linh hot no ti quy tc ny. Nu gi m v ng chnh lch t, c th vn cn c nhn nhn nh mt doji. Mt k thut da vo hot ng th trng gn y. Nu th trng mt thi im quan trng, hoc cui mt xu hng tng/gim, hoc c k thut khc a ra mt s bo ng, th s xut hin ca mt doji cng quan trng. Mt doji c th l mt cnh bo quan trng v tt hn l nn cn thn vi mt cnh bo (c th sai) hn l l i mt cnh bo ng. L i mt doji, vi tt c nhng s lin quan ca n, c th s nguy him. Doji l mt tn hiu thay i xu hng r rng. Tuy nhin, kh nng c th ng ca mt s o chiu xu hng c tng thm nu nhng thn nn k tip xc nhn tim nng o chiu ca doji. Nhng phin doji l quan trng ch trong nhng th trng khng c nhiu doji. Nu c nhiu doji trn mt biu c th, th khng nn nhn s xut hin ca mt doji mi trong th trng nh mt s pht trin y ngha. l l do ti sao cc nh phn tch thng khng s dng biu intra-day vi khung thi gian nh hn 30 pht, v vi khung thi gian nh nhiu thn nn s tr thnh doji hoc gn doji. 2. DOJI NHNG NH Doji c a chung bi kh nng bo hiu nhng nh ca th trng ca chng. iu ny c bit ng sau mt thn nn trng di trong mt xu hng tng (hnh 8.4). L do cho kh nng o chiu ca doji bi v mt doji tiu biu cho s do d. S do d, khng chc chn, hoc s dao ng ca nhng ngi mua s khng duy tr mt xu hng tng. N ly i s tin tng ca nhng ngi mua trong vic duy tr xu hng gi.

Tuy vy, trong khi doji rt c kh nng bo hiu nhng nh, da vo s tng tri, chng li mt tim nng o chiu trong nhng xu th gim st. L do c th l mt doji th hin mt s cn bng gia mua v bn bt buc. Vi nhng ngi tham gia th trng hai chiu, th trng c th ri v trng lng ca chnh mnh. Do , mt xu hng tng c th o chiu nhng mt xu hng gim c th tip tc s xung gi ca n. V th doji cn nhiu s xc nhn hn bo hiu mt y hn l chng lm vi mt nh. iu ny c kho st trn hnh 8.5. Trong hnh 8.5, sau doji 1, xu hng tng ca Bonds thay i thnh i ngang trong 1 di hp. nh th trng doji 2. Doji 2 l mt long-legged doji (doji chn di). Mt doji chn di c ngha mt doji vi mt hoc hai bng rt di. Doji chn di thng l nhng du hiu ca mt nh th trng. Chng ta c th thy vic doji 1 v 2 sau nhng xu hng tng l quan trng nh th no trong vic ch ra mt s o chiu xu hng (31 thng mi doji xut hin gia mt di hp v do vy m n khng quan trng). Sau mi t gim gi, doji 3, 4, 5, 6, v 7 xut hin. Tuy th, nhng doji khng phi l nhng s o chiu. Th trng vn cn tip tc xung sau khi chng xut hin. Ch khi doji 8 v 9 hnh thnh mt y i (a double bottom), l mt s o chiu xu hng (mc d ch l tm thi). Nh vy c th thy l t yu cu cho s xc nhn ca mt s o chiu nh bi mt doji hn l cho mt s o chiu y. Hnh 8.6 th hin qu trnh tng gi bt u t gia nm 1987, a cho du hiu u tin ca s hiu chnh vi doji 1. Cnh bo khc c th hin vi doji 2, vi thng sau. Mu hnh hanging man sau doji 2 xc nhn nh. Mt qu trnh tng nh chm dt cui nm 1989 doji 3. Hnh ny lm v d cho s xc nhn sau mt doji lm tng thm thnh cng cho mt s o chiu xu hng. Thn nn trng, xut hin mt thng sau doji 1, khng xc nhn nh doji 1. S xc nhn gim gi ch n sau doji 2. Sau doji 2, s xc nhn ny th hin qua mu hnh hanging man v sau l 1 thn nn en di. S xc nhn doji 3 nh mt nh th hin qua thn nn en di sau . Hnh 8.7 cho thy ba doji, tng ci sau mt xu hng tng. Doji 1 bo hiu mt nh ph. Doji 2 khng ch ra chnh xc mt s o chiu, nhng n c xc nhn bi mt ngy tip theo gim gi. Doji 3 th quan trng hn hai doji trc khi n i sau mt t ca ba thn nn trng di v n hnh thnh mt mu hnh harami cross. Doji 3 nhn mnh rng xu hng tng gi trc c th kt thc. Khi n xut hin, nhng ngi

mua cn phi bo v nhng khon li nhun. iu ny c ngha rng h cn phi dng trng thi mua, t nhng lnh dng bo v, v/hoc chun b trng thi bn. Vo ngy tip theo, th trng b bn r rng v pha ng ca. Hot ng ny gip xc nhn rng ci nhn cn bn v xu hng tng gi trc kt thc. Th trng sau khng r xu hng hn 1 tun sau. Mt mu hnh ging evening star sau xut hin. khng phi l mt mu hnh evening star l tng khi phn ngi sao khng to ra khong trng vi thn nn trng di trc n, tuy th n bo trc mt nh. 3. DOJI SAU MT THN NN TRNG DI Hnh 8.8 cho thy rng mt doji sau mt thn nn trng di, c bit sau mt xu hng tng gi ko di, thng cnh bo trc l rt gn mt nh. Hnh ny c ba v d v khi nim ny: 1. Trong thng tm 1989, mt doji i theo hai chn nn trng di. Sau doji 1, xu hng tng gi trc (bt u vi mt mu hnh hammer tng gi t 22 thng tm) chuyn thnh i ngang (side way). 2. Doji 2, trong u thng mi mt, i sau mt thn nn trng di. Khi doji ny ny sinh, s tng gi trc n chm dt. Trong mt vi ngy, Dow c ri xung di mc thp cui thng mi. 3. Trong vi tun cui nm 1989, Dow c mt t tng mnh y gi ln trn mc 2800. Hy nhn vo s xut hin ca doji 3. Thc t doji ny n sau mt thn nn trng di c ngha rng nhng ngi mua, iu khin ngy trc (c chng minh bi thn nn trng di) mt iu khin. Thn nn en ngy sau tng thm xc sut th trng to nh. N cng hon thnh mt mu hnh evening doji star. Trong v d ny, chng ta thy sc mnh khc ca biu hnh nn; chng cung cp mt tn hiu khng phi c th thu c vi k thut phn tch phng Ty. Vi nhng nh k thut khng phi ngi Nht, nu mt kt thc v m ca phin l nh nhau, th khng c d bo lin quan no c a ra. Vi ngi Nht, mt phin nh vy, l mt tn hiu trng thi o chiu.

Hnh 8.9 minh ha mt s tng gi c mc bt u vi mt thn nn ging vi the hammer vo gia thng ba (bng di khng di m cng khng l thn nn nh l mt hammer), ln n cc im vi mt doji sau mt nn trng di. Ngy doji ny cng l phn ngi sao ca mt mu hnh evening doji star. Mt mu hnh hammer l tng vo ngy 6 thng t chm dt xu hng gim gi.

Hnh 8.10 minh ha mt xu hng tng chm dt vi mt doji i sau mt thn nn trng di. Hnh 8.11 ch ra rng mt qu trnh tng gi bt u vi the hammer vo 19/4. N chm dt vo 23/4 khi mt doji xut hin sau mt thn nn trng di. Forex-viet.com
Last edited by vusparking; 14-04-2011 at 06:11 PM.

th hnh nn Nht Bn Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Steve Nison (13)

4. THE LONG-LEGGED DOJI V THE RICKSHAW MAN

The long-legged doji l mt doji quan trng c bit nhng nh. Nh trong hnh 8.2, doji ny c nhng bng trn v di di, r rng phn nh s do d. Sut c phin, th trng c y ln cao, ri xung thp r rng. Ri n ng ti/hoc rt gn, gi m u. Nu s m v ng nm gia trong trung tm phm vi ca phin hp, th n c gi l mt rickshaw man. Vi ngi Nht, bng trn hoc bng di rt di i din mt thn nn, m h gi l mt cm gic v phng hng. Trong hnh 8.12, cui thng t v u thng nm, nhng phin giao dch r rng to ra mt t ca nhng ngy doji hoc gn doji. Nhng thn nn nh ny l mt tn hiu m yu sau mt t tng gi. Chng ch bo th trng mt mi. The long-legged doji (trong v d ny, hai rickshaw man) l tn hiu s nguy him chnh (mc d gi m v ng trong ngy u tin khng nh nhau, chng vn c xem xt mt ngy doji). Long-legged doji ny phn nh th trng c du hiu mt cm gic v phng hng. Nhm nhng ngy thn nn nh trong mt phm vi hp ny hnh thnh mt nh chnh.

Hnh 8.13 c mt gi r rng v mt nh vi long-legged doji ( y gi m v ng gn xem xt nh mt phin doji). Ngy long-legged doji cng hon thnh mt mu hnh harami v mt tweezers top. S hi t ny ca nhng yu t k thut l nhng manh mi y sc thuyt phc ch ra mt nh. Hnh 8.14 minh ha mt nh gi vng va t n vi long-legged doji trong thng ging. Nhng bng trn di trong u thng hai xc nhn ngng khng c to ra bi long-legged doji.

5. THE GRAVESTONE DOJI The gravestone doji (hnh 8.3) l mt doji c bit khc. N hnh thnh khi gi m v ng mc thp ca phin. i khi n c th c tm thy nhng y th trng, nhng s trng ca n l bo hiu nhng nh. Tn ca gravestone doji c t theo hnh dng ca n. Nh chng ta bit, nhiu thut ng k thut ting Nht da trn nhng t tng t trong qun i, v trong ng cnh ny, gravestone doji cng i din nhng phn m ca nhng ngi cht bo v lnh th ca h. L do cho nhng du hiu gim gi ca gravestone doji sau mt qu trnh tng gi c th c gii thch n gin. Th trng m gi thp ca phin. Ri n tng gi (tt nht l to ra mt gi cao mi). Ri s rc ri xut hin i vi nhng ngi mua khi gi c lao thng xung mc thp ca phin. Bng trn cng di v mc gi cao cng cao th gravestone doji cng mang nhiu ngha gim gi. Hnh 8.15 ch ra rng ngy 11, 12/4 l nhng ngy doji. Doji th hai l ci ng quan tm nht. N l mt gravestone doji. Trong trng hp ny, n nh du s kt thc cuc chin gia ngi mua v ngi bn, khi ng h tr tng gi b b gy.

Hnh 8.16 minh ha gravestone doji ngy 8 thng mi (bng di rt nh khng lm mt hiu lc ca gravestone) th o chiu c bit cho chng khon ny. Vo ngy y, mt gi cao mi c chm ti. N l c hi ca nhng ngi mua y gi ln, nhng h tht bi. Bi cui cng gi ko v ti gn mc thp ca ngy. c s rc ri ti ngng 41$ trc . Bt u t 23 thng chn, ba thn nn pht trin mt mu hnh stalled. Gravestone doji xc nhn s cung cp ti 41$. Mt s ngi c th ch rng mt gravestone doji trng nh mt shooting star. Gravestone doji, nhng nh, l mt phin bn c bit ca mt shooting star. Shooting star c mt thn nh, nhng gravestone doji l mt doji khng c thn. Gravestone doji th ngha gim gi hn mt shooting star.

6. DOJI NH NGNG H TR V KHNG C Doji, c bit nhng nh hoc nhng y quan trng, c th tr thnh nhng vng

khng c hoc h tr mnh. Hnh 8.17 cho thy bng di ca tun doji trong u thng chn nm 1989 tr thnh mt vng h tr. Doji ng vai tr nh trong cui thng chn tr thnh mt mc khng c. Trong hnh 8.18, mu hnh rickshaw man (thn nn nh xem xt n nh mt doji) vo gi u tin ca ngy 21 thng ba a ra mt u mi rng xu hng tng gi trc y c th b o chiu. Mt doji xut hin hai gi sau mang li thm s xc nhn cho iu ny. Hai doji ny tr thnh l mt vng khng c quan trng.

7. THE TRI-STAR The tri-star (xem hnh 8.19) l mt mu hnh him c, nhng c ngha o chiu rt quan trng. The tri-star c hnh thnh bi ba doji. Doji gia l mt ngi sao doji. Ti c th cha nhn thy mt tri-star l tng, nh trong hnh 8.19, nhng nhng v d sau cho thy ngha ca mu hnh ny, thm ch trong nhng bin th ca n.

Hnh 8.20 ch ra rng sau ngy 15 thng chn, c hai doji i theo sau l mt thn nn nh. Bin th ny ca mt mu hnh tri-star l s bt u ca mt t tng gi 15$.

Hnh 8.21 th hin cui thng chn 1989, Dow bt u mt qu trnh tng gi ln n cc im trong mt t ca ba doji u thng mi. Mc d khng phi l mt mu hnh tri-star l tng, ba doji trong mt s tng gi l mt tn hiu bo im d. Lu l hai doji cng hnh thnh mt mu hnh tweezers top.

Tre ndline--ng xu hng

Th cn phi xem xt u tin trong khi nhn vo bt c th trng no l hng ca xu th lu di ( long term trend) ( ngoi tr i vi cc day traders) Gi ch c th i theo 3 hng: ln, xung v sang 2 bn ( sideways). Mt ng di nhng khu vc gi c a ra cho bn mt kiu th trng. S c rt nhiu ch lm ( dip) v ch li (bumps) dc ng nhng bn vn nn nhn thc mt hng chung ln, xung hoc sang 2 bn.Chng ta c th nhn ra hng ny hoc xu th ny bng cch v " trendlines"

Trendlines c th ni l hnh thc phn thch k thut ph bin nht hin nay. Mnh cng xin thm vo l nhng ng ny c th l mt trong nhng ng b tn dng km cng sut nht trong tt c cc c. Nu v ng cc ng ny c th chnh xc v bt c h thng no khc hoc phng php no khc m bn thng nhc ti. Tht khng may hu ht cc traders u v cc ng ny ko ng hoc c gng khin cho ng ny ph hp vi th trng thay v cch ngc li . ng xu hng tng (Uptrend) Trong hnh thc c bn nht ca cc ng ny, mt ng xu hng tng c v dc y

ca 2 khu vc support d pht hin ( thng c gi l valley) . Vi 3 im ta c mt ng xu hng, cng nhiu im th s chnh xc cng cao .Ni cch khc, ng uptrend lines c v bng cch ni cng nhiu nhng y thp lin tc nhau ( dc trn mt khu vc gi y) th cng tt. Mt ng trendline c xu th i ln i din cho mt khong support ln i vi gi min l ng ny cha b xm phm. iu quan trng nht y l khang thi gian chng ta cn xt n l bao lu, ci ny ngi ta gi l khung thi gian (time frame). Thng thng VN ngi ta chn l ngy, tun, thng v sau l nm. ng xu hng tng cho bit th trng s tip tc vi xu hng cho n khi xu hng b gy (broken). Trong xu hng tng gi, ci c hi mua xy ra khi ng gi nm trn ng xu hng ny. ng xu hng tng gi nhm gip nh u t kim tra li tn hiu mua ca th trng bng cch: ng gi di chuyn gn st hay pha di ng xu hng tng v sau n hi phc v chuyn ng theo hng ln trn ng xu hng tng. Ngc li nu ng xu hng tng b gy th n s cho tn hiu bn khi ng gi ct qua ng xu hng hng tng v c hng i xung. ng xu hng l cng c c bn nht ca phng php phn tch bng th.

1. ng xu hng tng (Uptrend): a. Cu to: - S dng gi m ca, cao nht, thp nht hay ng ca v ng xu hng. iu quan trng nht y l khang thi gian chng ta cn xt n l bao lu, ci ny ngi ta gi l khung thi gian (time frame). Thng thng VN ngi ta chn l ngy, tun, thng v sau l nm. - Nu ng gi ang chuyn ng l tng theo 1 ng thng th ta ni cc im thp nht v ko di ra cho n ngy hon hnh th ta c 1 ng xu hng tng, vi 3 im thp nht ta c th xc nh c ng xu hng ny. Nu cng nhiu im th ng xu hng ny cng c gi tr chnh xc. b. S dng: - ng xu hng tng cho bit th trng s tip tc vi xu hng cho n khi xu hng b gy (broken). Trong xu hng tng gi, ci c hi mua xy ra khi ng gi nm trn ng xu hng ny. ng xu hng tng gi nhm gip nh u t kim tra li tn hiu mua ca th trng bng cch: ng gi di chuyn gn st hay pha di ng xu hng tng v sau n hi phc v chuyn ng theo hng ln trn ng xu hng tng.

- Ngc li nu ng xu hng tng b gy th n s cho tn hiu bn khi ng gi ct qua ng xu hng hng tng v c hng i xung.

2. ng xu hng gim (downtrend): a. Cu to: Nu ng gi ang chuyn ng gim ta v 1 ng thng ni cc im cao nht ca ng gi v ko di ra cho n ngy hin hnh, ta c 1 ng xu hng gim. Ni cng nhiu im th ng xu hng ny cng chnh xc. ng ny c ngha l: hng i tan b ca 1 xu hng. N c th o c xu hng b gy nh th no. b. S dng: - ng gi lun nm di ng xu hng ny, u l c hi mua tt nht ca th trng trong tng lai. - Tng theo bc thang, gim dn theo cao. Vi ngha nh vy khi th trng ang i xung l v cng nguy him i vi nhng nh u t v h s c nhng cuc mua bn ht ln trong giai an ny. N ging nh cng vic ng inh vy: khi ng 1 ci inh to th chng ta phi ng tht chm - Nhng khi th trng i xung , xu hng ny s kt thc khi c s giao dch ln v t bin ng, thng thng th chng ta phi ch cho n khi ng xu hng b gy trc khi ni rng xu hng c kt thc. Xu hng xung b gy khi gi nm pha di ng xu hng v chuyn ng vt qua ng xu hng. nhng phi cn thn vi cc by ca ngi bn; ci by ny l hin tng mua nhiu to ra ti 1 thi im v ng gi vt ng xu hng trong khang thi gian ngn nht nh, sau li tip tc xu hng xung ch khng phi tht s l b b gy ng xu hng.

ng xu hng l cng c c bn nht ca phng php phn tch bng th. 1. ng xu hng tng (Uptrend): a. Cu to: - S dng gi m ca, cao nht, thp nht hay ng ca v ng xu hng. iu quan trng nht y l khang thi gian chng ta cn xt n l bao lu, ci ny ngi ta gi l khung thi gian (time frame). Thng thng VN ngi ta chn l ngy, tun, thng v sau l nm. - Nu ng gi ang chuyn ng l tng theo 1 ng thng th ta ni cc im thp nht v ko di ra cho n ngy hon hnh th ta c 1 ng xu hng tng, vi 3 im thp nht ta c th xc nh c ng xu hng ny. Nu cng nhiu im th ng xu hng ny cng c gi tr chnh xc. b. S dng: - ng xu hng tng cho bit th trng s tip tc vi xu hng cho n khi xu hng b gy (broken). Trong xu hng tng gi, ci c hi mua xy ra khi ng gi nm trn ng xu hng ny. ng xu hng tng gi nhm gip nh u t kim tra li tn hiu mua ca th trng bng cch: ng gi di chuyn gn st hay pha di ng xu hng tng v sau n hi phc v chuyn ng theo hng ln trn ng xu hng tng. - Ngc li nu ng xu hng tng b gy th n s cho tn hiu bn khi ng gi ct qua ng xu hng hng tng v c hng i xung.

2. ng xu hng gim (downtrend): a. Cu to: Nu ng gi ang chuyn ng gim ta v 1 ng thng ni cc im cao nht ca ng gi v ko di ra cho n ngy hin hnh, ta c 1 ng xu hng gim. Ni cng nhiu im th ng xu hng ny cng chnh xc. ng ny c ngha l: hng i tan b ca 1 xu hng. N c th o c xu hng b gy nh th no. b. S dng: - ng gi lun nm di ng xu hng ny, u l c hi mua tt nht ca th trng trong tng lai. - Tng theo bc thang, gim dn theo cao. Vi ngha nh vy khi th trng ang i xung l v cng nguy him i vi nhng nh u t v h s c nhng cuc mua bn ht ln trong giai an ny. N ging nh cng vic ng inh vy: khi ng 1 ci inh to th chng ta phi ng tht chm - Nhng khi th trng i xung , xu hng ny s kt thc khi c s giao dch ln v t bin ng, thng thng th chng ta phi ch cho n khi ng xu hng b gy trc khi ni rng xu hng c kt thc. Xu hng xung b gy khi gi nm pha di ng xu hng v chuyn ng vt qua ng xu hng. nhng phi cn thn vi cc by ca ngi bn; ci by ny l hin tng mua nhiu to ra ti 1 thi im v ng gi vt ng xu hng trong khang thi gian ngn nht nh, sau li tip tc xu hng xung ch khng phi tht s l b b gy ng xu hng.

Ch bo Parabolic SAR Parabolic SAR l ch bo kt hp gia gi v thi gian hnh thnh nhng tn hiu mua bn trn th trng. Parabolic SAR cng l cng c hiu qu xc nh vng t im dng l (stop loss). Tn hiu mua: Mua khi gi ng ca nm trn ng Parabolic SAR v ng thi ng Parabolic SAR phi cao hn ng gi. C ngha l khi ng Parabolic SAR thay i t gi tr cao chuyn sang gi tr thp th nh u t nn dng li; thc hin mua ri hay bn khng ch tn hiu o chiu xu hng mnh xy ra hoc c th mua u t di hn.

Tn hiu bn: Tn hiu bn xut hin khi gi ng ca nm di Parabolic SAR v ng thi ng Parabolic SAR thp hn ng gi. Ngay ti thi im ny ng Parabolic SAR thay i t mc thp hn ng gi ln mc cao hn ng gi. Cc nh u t nn dng li, cng c th bn thot khi xu hng di hn hin hnh v ch s o chiu trong ngn hn.

Parabolic SAR l cng c xc nh vng t im dng l hiu qu, c din t theo 2 lp lun sau:
1. t im dng l thp hn gi ca nh u t di hn mua vo hoc trn

mc gi ca nh u t ngn hn chp nhn mua. S dng Parabolic SAR nh l mt cng c iu chnh im dng l, im dng l s t t tin ln theo xu hng di hn v thp hn xu hng ngn hn. Nhng hiu qu nht th nh u t nn cht li mc li nhun k vng ca mnh. 2. Parabolic SAR hnh ng nh l khong dng v mt thi gian (thi im dng). Thi im dng c s dng ty vo tng nh u t. Nu s mong i ca nh u t khng xy ra th l tr ca nh u t bt u b bung lng mt cch t nhin, tc l k lut kinh doanh, mua-bn b vi phm. Khi , nh u t nn phi thot khi th trng. Tng t nh vy, Parabolic SAR kt hp vi thi gian lm cho ng gi hot ng theo s tnh ton ca nh u t. Nu ng gi khng di chuyn theo hng tnh ton trc th Parabolic SAR s l tn hiu xc nh thi im thot khi th trng. Ch s Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Gii thiu L mt k thut th ca ngi Nht c to ra trc th chin th 2 v c s dng ngm v chn dung. N c th nh c hng i tip theo ca ng gi v khi n s bo cho chng ta khi no nhy vo hay that ra khi th trng. y l ch bo c lp khng cn s gip ca cc k thut phn tch no khc. Ci t Ichimoku c ngha l "ci nhn thang qua", Kinko c ngha l "trng thi cn bng" gia gi v thi gian cn Hyo theo ting Nht c ngha l " th". Ichimoku

Kinko Hyo c ngha l "Ci nhn thang qua v s cn bng ca th gia gi v thi gian". N c ci nhn bao qut v gi v d an hng i n 1 v tr mi kh vng chc. Ch s ny c sng ch bi 1 phng vin bo ca Nht vi bt danh l "Ichimoku Sanjin" n c ngha l "ngi n ng vt ni". th Ichimoku tr thnh cng c kh ph thng cho cc nh u t Nht, khng ch ring cho th trng c phiu m n cn c s dng cho currency, bond, futures, commodity v options markets cng rt tt. y l 1 k thut c cng b cch y 30 nm nhng trong nhng nm gn y mi tht s gy c ch bi li ch m n em li.

Cu to th Ichimoku gm c 5 ng. Tnh tan ch yu cho 4 ng ny bao hm: im gia, cao, thp v ng trung bnh n gin. By gi n gin ha, th c han tt phi phn nh c trin vng ca s bin ng gi. 5 ng c biu th trn hnh v trn v c tnh tan nh sau: 1. Tenkan-Sen = Conversion Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, s dng cho 9 phin 2. Kijun-Sen = Base Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, s dng cho 26 phin 3. Chikou Span = Lagging Span = Gi ng ca hm nay, c v cho 26 phin sau 4. Senkou Span A = Leading Span A = (Tenkan-Sen + Kijun-Sen) / 2, c v cho 26 phin u

5. Senkou Span B = Leading Span B = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, s dng cho 52 phin, c v cho 26 phin u. Kumo = Cloud = Area between Senkou Span A and B. Ichimoku s dng 3 phin ch yu theo chun: 9, 26 v 52. Khi xa Ichimoku c to ra (vo nm 1930) lc 1 tun giao dch 6 ngy v chun c chn tng ng l: 1tun ri, 1 thng v 2 thng. Nhng by gi 1 tun hin ch giao dch c 5 ngy th chun c chn thay i tng ng l: 7, 22 v 44 phin.
Nguyn l sng Elliott

Nguyn l sng Elliott c Ralph Nelson Elliott khm ph vo nhng nm 1920

v v sau c ph bin v pht trin thm vi s nghin cu y khoa hc ca Frost v Prechter vo thp nin 1980. Nhn chung k t nguyn l sng Elliott ra i th n thc phn tch, xc nhn, tinh lc v ci tin mt cch c h thng v thng k. Nhng im mnh c tha nhn, nhng im yu c nhn din v c iu chnh. Kt qu t c l mt cng c d bo th trng chnh xc v hiu qu hn cha tng thy. chnh l Nguyn l sng Elliott tinh tuyn. Gp phn cho qu trnh nghin cu chnh l nh lng nhit huyt ca Richard Swannel v nhm nghin cu ca ng. K t sau khi Elliott khm ph rng nhng m hnh trong nhng th gi ca cc th trng c tnh thanh khon l kt qu ca cm xc m ng con ngi, thay i t hy vng n s hi v ngc li th Nguyn l sng Elliott tr thnh ti gy tranh ci lin min. Ngi ta ni rng nu bn c th sp xp 10 nh phn tch k thut sng Elliott trong mt cn phng tho lun d bo sng Elliott cho mt th ring bit th bn s c t nht 12 kin. Nhng chuyn gia v sng Elliott thng bt ng kin vi nhau bi v h thng c nhng quan im khc nhau v cch hiu Nguyn l sng Elliott. V trong nhng m hnh sng Elliott th c dng c in v dng hin i v th i khi s gy kh nhiu tranh ci.

Tm l th trng theo cc bc sng Elliott

Sng ch s 1 t sng u tin ny c im xut pht t th trung u t gi xung (suy thai), do sng 1 t khi c nhn bit ngay t u. Lc ny thng tin c bn vn ang l thng tin tiu cc. Chiu hng ca th trng trc khi sng 1 xy ra ch yu vn l th trung suy thoi. Khi lng giao dch c tng cht t theo chiu hng gi tng. Tuy vy vic tng ny l khng ng k. Do nhiu nh phn tch k thut khng nhn ra s c mt ca t sng s 1 ny. Sng ch s 2 Sng ch 2 s iu chnh sng 1, nhng im thp nht ca sng 2 khng bao gi vt qua im xut pht u tin ca sng 1. Tin tc dnh cho th trng vn cha kh quan. Th trng i xung cui sng 2 thc hin vic kim tra thp ca th trng. Nhng ngi theo xu th u t gi xung vn ang tin rng th trng theo xu hng u t gi xung vn ang ng tr. Khi lng giao dch s t hn t sng 1. Gi s c iu chnh gim v thung

nm trong khong 0.382 n 0.618 ca mc cao nht ca sng 1. Sng ch s 3 Thng thng y l sng ln nht v mnh m nht ca xu hng ln gi. Ngay u sng 3, th trng vn cn nhn nhng thng tin tiu cc v vy c nhiu nh kinh doanh khng kp chun b mua vo. Khi sng 3 ang lng chng, th trng bt u nhn nhng thng tin c bn tch cc. Mc d c nhng t iu chnh nho nh trong lng ca sng 3, gi ca sng 3 tng ln vi tc kh nhanh. im cao nht ca sng 3 thng cao hn im cao nht ca sng 1 vi t l 1.618 hoc thm ch l 261.8%. Sng ch s 4 y tht s l mt con sng iu chnh. Gi c khuynh hng i xung v i khi c th to kiu rng ca ko di. Sng 4 thng s iu chnh sng 3 vi mc 0.382 0.618 ca sng 3. Khi lng giao dch ca sng 4 thp hn khi lng giao dch ca sng 3. y l thi im mua vo nu nh nh kinh doanh nhn bit c tim nng tip din lin sau ca con sng 5. Tuy vy vic nhn bit im dng ca sng 4 l mt trong nhng kh khn ca cc nh phn tch k thut trng phi sng Elliott. Sng ch s 5 y l t sng cui cng ca 5 con sng ch. Thng tin tch cc trn lan khp th trng v ai cng tin rng th trng ang trong th u t gi ln. Khi lng giao dch ca sng 5 kh ln, tuy vy thng thng vn nh hn sng 3. iu ng ni l nhng nh kinh doanh khng chuyn nghip thng mua vo nhng im gn cui sng 5. Vo cui con sng 5, th trng nhanh chng chuyn hng. im cao nht ca sng 5 cao hn im cao nht ca sng 3 vi t l 161.8%.

Sng A Sng ny bt u cho t sng iu chnh A B - C. Trong thi gian din ra sng A, thng tin c bn vn ang rt lc quan. Mc d gi xung, nhng phn ng cc nh kinh doanh vn cho rng th trng ang trong th u t gi ln. Khi lng giao dch tng trng kh u n theo con sng A. Sng A thng hon li t 38.2% n 61.8% so vi sng 5. Sng B Gi tng tr li v vi mc cao hn so vi im cui sng A. Sng B c xem l im ko di ca th trng u t gi ln. i vi nhng ngi theo trng phi phn tch k thut c in, im B chnh l vai phi ca m hnh th u v Vai. Khi lng giao dch ca sng B thng thp hn sng A. Vo lc ny, nhng thng tin c bn khng c nhng im tch cc mi, th nhng cng cha chuyn hn qua tiu cc. Sng B thng hon li t 38.2% n 61.8% so vi sng A. Sng C Gi c khuynh hng gim nhanh hn cc t sng trc. Khi lung giao dch tng. Hu nh tt c mi nh kinh doanh, u t u nhn thy r s ng tr ca xu th u t gi xung trn th trng, chm nht l trong t sng nh th 3 ca sng C. Sng C thng ln nh sng A. im thp nht ca sng C t nht bng im thp nht ca sng A nhn vi 1.618.
Last edited by doc hanh; 21-04-2011 at 11:20 AM.

Khong trng (Gaps)

Khong trng (Gaps) c xem l 1 phn khng th thiu trong k thut s dng th nn Nht, y l 1 k thut v cng quan trng trong th nn. nh ngha n gin 1 khong trng nh sau: khong trng xut hin khi gi m ca khng trng vi gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc, c ngha l khng c gi tr v cng khng c khi lng giao dch trao tay gia khong trng ny.

Mt khong trng tng gi (Gap Up) xy ra khi gi m ca ngy th 2 ln hn gi ng ca ca ngy th 1. Tri li, 1 khong trng gim gi (Gap Down) xy ra khi gi m ca ca ngy th 2 thp hn gi ng ca ca ngy th 1. C rt nhiu din bin tm l n ng sau khong trng ny, chng c th thng c s dng nh sau: Khng c (Resistance): Khi ng gi to ra 1 khong trng gim gi th khong trng ng vai tr l ng khng c lu di v bn vng. H tr (Support): Khi ng gi to 1 khong trng tng gi th khong trng c th ng vai tr l ngng h tr ca ng gi trong tng lai lu di v bn vng. V d minh ho khong trng tng:

Thng thng sau 1 khong trng th ng gi s c khuynh hng lp y khong trng , y l 1 hin tng rt thng xy ra. Hy tng tng khong trng nh l 1 l thng trn bc tranh th gi v chng ta cn phi kho lp l thng . Thng thng sau khi ng gi lp y khong trng th n c khuynh hng tip tc tip tc di chuyn theo hng to ra khong trng trc . Nh v d minh ho trn, ng gi o chiu tng gi tr li (cng chiu vi hng di chuyn ng gi to ra khong trng trc ), sau khi khong trng c lp y th lc ny n (khong trng) ng vai tr nh l mc h tr. Cc nh u t v u c xem y l vng hu nh chc chn s tng ln.

Tng t, v d minh ho khong trng gim:

Khong trng gim ng vai tr l vng khng c v khong trng tng ng vai tr nh l vng h tr. Khong trng l vng rt quan trng trong th gi, chng c th gip nh u t s dng phn tch k thut tt hn trong vic tm kim nhng vng h tr v khng c. N cho ta bit vng h tr v khng c lm vic nh th no, v chng ta c th s dng chng xy dng, iu chnh chin lc kinh doanh ca mnh cho ph hp. Khong trng l phn rt quan trng trong mu th nn, n l 1 dng mu th c bit cn c lu .
L thuyt Dow P2

L thuyt Dow P2

6 - Th trng gi ln Mt xu th tng gi c bn thng bao gm 3 thi k.Thi k u tin l qu trnh tch t. Trong qu trnh ny, nhng nh u t c tm nhn xa s tin hnh xem xt cc doanh nghip, c th vo thi k ny doanh nghip ang suy thoi nhng nh u t nhn thy kh nng doanh ngip c th chuyn bin tnh hnh thnh tng trng nhanh chng,c th gi c phiu ca n s tng trong thi gian ti. y cng l thi im m c phiu ny ang c cho bn rt nhiu bi nhng nh u t ang c tm l rt chn nn v lo lng v tnh trng ca nhng c phiu ca h v nhm tng dn gi cho bn ca h khi th trng xut hin s suy gim trong khi lng giao dch. Cc bn bo co ti chnh ca doanh nghip c th khng tt thm ch ti, rt ti. Gii u t hon ton cm thy tht vng khi tham gia vo th trng chng khon bi h thy tin u t ca h ang gim

nhanh chng v c nguy c cn gim na, v vy m h mun thot ra khi th trng.Tuy nhin c th nhn thy mt iu vo cui giai on th nht ny l trong hot ng ca cng ty v trong nhng bin ng trn th trng c nhng bin chuyn tuy mi ch mc hn ch, bt u xut hin nhng t tng gi nh. Thi k th 2 l thi k ca s tng trng kh vng chc. Hat ng ca doanh ngip ang theo di gia tng mnh cng vi nhng khi sc trong ni b doanh nghip v doanh thu ca n cng tng dn v bt u thu ht cc mi quan tm trn th trng.y chnh l thi k mang li nhiu li nhun cho cc nh kinh doanh chng khon theo trng phi phn tch k thut. Cui cng l thi k th 3. Trong thi k ny th trng si sc vi nhng bin ng ca n. Cng chng rt ho hc vi tng bin ng ca th trng.Tt c cc thng tin ti chnh ca doanh nghip a ra u rt tt, gi chng khon tng cao ngoi sc tng tng v ang l nhng vn nng hi c a ln trang u ca cc t bo ra hng ngy.Thi im ny c l l 2 nm k t khi th trng bt u i ln,nhng ngi t kinh nghim c th cho rng th trng lc ny mi chc chn cho li nhun ca h v mun tham gia vo th trng. Nhng thc s th sau 2 nm, gi tng kh cao, cu hi nn t ra vo lc ny l nn bn c phiu no ch khng cn l nn mua c phiu no na.Vo cui thi k th 3, ngi ta c th thy nn u c trn lan, khi lng giao dch vn tip tc tng nhng air-pocket xut hin v cng gia tng thng xuyn,s lng c phiu c gi thp nhng khng c gi tr u t cng gia tng v c nhng t pht hnh tri phiu cng t dn i. 7 - Th trng gi xung Xu th gim gi ca th trng cng c chia thnh 3 thi k.Thi k u tin l thi k phn b (thi k ny thc s bt u giai on cui ca th trng gi ln trc ). Trong thi k ny nhng nh u t c tm nhn xa u nhn thy rng doanh thu ca nhng cng ty m h ang nm gi c phiu u ang t mc cao khng bnh thng v h mun nhanh chng thot khi c phiu ca cc cng ty ny. Khi lng giao dch vn rt cao mc d c nhng du hiu ca xu hng gim, cng chng vn rt nng ng nhng cng bt u c du hiu lo lng v cng khng cn nhiu k vng kim li nhun. Thi k th 2 c gi l thi k hn lon. S lng ngi mua bt u gim dn v nhng ngi bn bt u tr ln vi v bn i nhng c phiu mnh ang nm gi. Xu th gim gi bt u tng mnh lm th gi gn nh dc thng xung v khi lng giao dch t n mc nh im.Giai on ny c gi l hn lon v s st gim thng xy ra rt trm trng thm ch l thi qu vi mc vt qu c thc trng ca cc doanh nghip.Sau giai on hn lon c th c giai on hi phc(mt dng xu th cp 2) hoc mt giai on giao ng ngang ca th trng (cc giao ng khng c hng i ln hay i xung m l giao ng trong mt khong c nh theo chiu ngang ca th trng) trong mt thi gian tng i di.Giai on ny th hin tm l chn nn ca mt b phn nh u t,h cng chnh l nhng ngi c gng nm gi c phiu qua thi k hn lon trc hoc cng c th l nhng ngi mua c phiu trong thi k bi v lc gi c c phiu r rng l r hn rt nhiu so vi trc vi thng. Thng tin v cc doanh nghip ngy cng xu i. Kt thc giai on ny mi bc vo thi k th 3. Vo thi k th 3,xu th i xung trn

th trng yu dn,nhng li c duy tr bi nhng lnh bn nhiu v lin tc th hin ni bun v s lo lng ca nhng nh u t ang rt cn tin cho nhng nhu cu ring ca h. Cc c phiu u gim n mc thp nht, thm ch gn nh mt hon ton gi tr. Nhng c phiu c cht lng cao hu nh khng c giao dch v nhng ngi s hu chng u mun nm gi n cng. giai on cui ca th trng gi xung, nh mt kt qu ca ton b thi k gim gi trc,c th trng ch tp trung vo giao dch mt s loi c phiu. Th trng gi xung kt thc tt c vi nhng tin xu v cc doanh nghip, v th trng mc c th coi l ti t nht th hin ra v c th n. 8 - Hai ng ch s bnh qun ca th trng phi cng xc nhn xu th ca th trng. y l cu hi thng xuyn t ra nht v cng kh gii thch nht i vi h thng cc nguyn l ca l thuyt Dow.Tuy nhin t khi c a ra cho n nay n c thi gian chng minh tnh ng n v n vn c vn dng cho n ngy nay v bt k mt ai khi xem xt nhng s liu ghi li th u khng th c kin phn i vi nguyn l ny.Cn vi nhng ngi t quan tm hay b qua nguyn l ny th trong thc t kinh doanh s phi nhiu ln tic nui. iu nguyn l ny mun ni n l khng th c mt du hiu chnh xc no v s thay i xu th th trng c th c ra ch thng qua xem xt bin ng ca duy nht mt loi ch s bnh qun( y mun ni n nhng th trng bao gm nhiu ch s bnh qun,chng hn nh M, nh ni phn u,c hai loi ch s bnh qun). 9 - Khi lng giao dch p dng km vi xu th th trng. iu ny th hin mt thc t l khi gi bin ng theo ng xu th cp 1 th cc hat ng kinh doanh trn c xu hng m rng hn. Do vy, vi th trng gi ln, khi lng giao dch s tng nu gi tng,v s thu li nu gi gim; vi th trng gi xung, gi tr giao dch s tng nu gi gim v t khi gi c du hiu phc hi. iu ny vn ng mc thp hn tc l vi nhng xu th cp 2, c bit l trong giai on u ca mt xu th hi phc cp 2 trong mt th trng gi xung, khi m cc din bin ca th trng ch ra rng gi s tng ln theo mt s t tng gi nh, cn cc bin ng ko gi xung gim i. Cc kt lun y thng khng c gi tr nu ch da trn din bin trong vi ngy v cng khng c gi tr vi nhng kt lun da trn mt phin giao dch n l.Nguyn l ny ch pht huy hiu qu nu da trn nhng din bin ca khi lng giao dch chung trong thi gian giao dch tng i di .Hn na, theo L thuyt Dow th ch da trn nhng phn tch v gi mi c th a ra c nhng du hiu mang tnh quyt nh v xu th th trng,cn khi lng giao dch ch c th cung cp thm nhng chng c ph gii thch r hn bin ng ca th trng v s dng vo nhng tnh hung khi du hiu chnh t ra cn nhiu nghi ng. 10 - ng ngang c th thay th cho cc xu th cp 2 ng ngang theo inh ngha ca L thuyt Dow l nhng chuyn ng ngang c tnh cht trung gian ca th trng phn nh thi k m gi bin ng rt t (vi th trng M l nh hn hoc bng 5%). ng ngang thng ko di t 2 n 3 tun hoc i khi l lu hn

(trong vi thng). Khi th trng xut hin m hnh dng ng ngang, iu ny ch ra rng p lc ca cung v cu trn th trng l tng i cn bng. Thc t trong giai on ny cc lnh t mua hoc bn u th hin mt s kit sc .Nhng ngi mun mua c phiu th phi tng mc gi cho mua khuyn khch ngi c c phiu m h mun bn cho h,cn nhng ngi mun bn th vi th trng c bin ng dng ng ngang h thy rng s lng ngi mua ang t dn v kt qu l h phi gim gi c th bn c nhng c phiu ca mnh. Do vy mt mc gi giao ng vt ra ngoi mc giao ng ca m hnh ng ngang ang xut hin trn th trng s l mt du hiu r rng cho mt th trng ln hoc xung gi ty thuc vo hng ca giao ng vt ra ngoi. Nhn chung m hnh ng ngang cng ko di lu v bin giao ng cng nh th ngha ca giao ng vt ra ngoi m hnh ng ngang cng ln. M hnh ng ngang thng din ra di va khong thi gian tn ti ca n mang mt ngha quan trng i vi nhng ngi phn tch th trng theo trng phi Dow. Nhng bin ng vt ra ngoi m hnh ng ngang c th l du hiu cho thy m hnh ny chnh l nhng mc nh hoc y rt quan trng ca th trng bi nu l nh th chnh l giai on phn b- giai on ban u ca mt th trng gi xung; cn nu du hiu cho thy n c th l mc y ca th trng th y l giai on tch t - giai on u ca mt th trng gi ln.Thng thng nht, n ng vai tr nh mt thi k yn tnh thuc giai on cui cng trong qu trnh hnh thnh hoc thuc giai on cng c xu th cp 1 ca th trng. Trong nhng trng hp m hnh ny ng vai tr nh nhng sng cp 2. Mc bin ng 5% cng hon ton ch l mt mc bin c xc nh theo kinh nghim bi trn thc t rng m hnh ng ngang c rt nhiu im tng ng vi m hnh cng c nhiu bin ng ngang vi bin ln hn nhng hai bin ca n vn c xc nh kh r rng v tng i chun nn cng c tnh l mt loi m hnh ng ngang. 11 - Ch s dng mc gi ng ca nghin cu. L thuyt Dow khng quan tm v t cao n cc mc bin ng gi (thm ch l c mc gi cao nht v thp nht) trong ngy m ch quan tm n nhng s liu cui ngy giao dch, chng hn nh mc bnh qun gi bn cui cng trong ngy. Xem xt mt th trng vi xu th c bn l tng gi v ang thi im gi tng v t mc nh ca ngy hm vo 11 gi sng, gi s lc ch s bnh qun cng nghip ang l 152.45 sau li gim xung mc gi ng ca l 150.70. c th xc nhn th trng vn ang trong xu th c bn l tng gi th t tng gi tip theo mc gi ng ca phi cao hn 150.70 . Trong trng hp ny mc nh 152.45 khng c quan tm n. Tri li nu t th 2, d gi c t n mc nh 152.60 nhng gi ng ca li nh hn 150.70 th hon ton c c s nghi ng liu xu th tng gi hin ti c cn tip tc hay khng. Trong nhng nm gn y, nhiu kin c a ra xung quanh vn liu ch s gi bnh qun phi tng thm hay gim i bao nhiu so vi gii hn t c ca t giao ng gi trc (nh hoc y) c th bo hiu (xc nhn mt xu th mi hoc xc nhn li xu th hin ti) xu th th trng. Dow v Hamilton lun rt cn thn trong vic xem xt bt c

mt giao ng nh no xen vo xu th hin ti lm gi thay i thm ch n 0.01 v hai ng u cho rng du hiu hon ton c th l mt du hit ng. Nhng ngy nay nhiu nh phn tch cho rng mc thay i phi t t nht 1.00 mi c th c coi l mt du hiu ca th trng. 12 - Mt xu th cn c gi nh rng vn ang tip tc cho n khi c mt du hiu thc s v s o chiu ca xu th c xc nh. Nguyn l ny l mt trong nhng nguyn l c nhiu kin tranh ci nht. Nhng nguyn l ny khi c hiu chnh xc vn c gi tr rt ln trong phn tch th trng. Nguyn l ny gip phng vi nhng thay i qu sm trong quan im v th trng nhng phn ng qu sm,theo nh chng ta hay ni l cm n chy trc t, ca bt k nh u t no. iu ny khng nhm lm nh u t tr hon hnh ng ca mnh li mt cch khng cn thit,cho d l ch mt pht, khi nhng du hiu v s thay i ca xu th th trng l r rng, nhng n nhc nh mt iu rng li th s nghing v pha nhng ngi bit ch i cho n khi h chc chn v tnh hnh th trng v r rng s khng nghing v nhng ngi qu nn nng vi hnh ng ca h. Kh nng xy khng th c pht hin mt cch r rng bi bn cht ca n l nhng bin ng thc t ca th trng v chng thay i thng xuyn. Th trng gi ln khng th ln gi mi v th trng gi xung th sm mun cng t n y ca n. Khi mt xu th cp 1 ca th trng va mi c hnh thnh th cho d c nhng giao ng trong ngn hn ta vn c th chc chn rng n khng thay i, nhng nu n ko di cng lu th mc chc chn cng t dn i,cc im ti xc nhn xu th th trng cng c gi tr t dn i. ng lc ca ngi mua v kh nng bn c nhng c phiu vi gi cao hn gi mua kim li s ngy cng thp nu nh Bull Market tn ti trong nhiu thng v r rng l thp hn khi n mi hnh thnh. Nguyn l th 12 ca Dow ni rng Making your position pending contrary orders. Mt h qu tt yu t nguyn l ny l khi c nhng du hiu v s thay i ca xu th th trng th s thay i c th xy ra bt c lc no.V vy bt c nh u t no cng cn phi theo di th trng mt cch thng xuyn.

L thuyt Dow P1

L thuyt Dow P1
L thuyt Dow l c s u tin cho mi nghin cu k thut trn th trng chng khon. Mc d n thng b coi l tr so vi th trng v b nhiu ngi ch trch, nhng n vn c ng o nhng ngi c quan tm n v tn trng.Rt nhiu ngi, d t hay nhiu c s dng l thuyt ny cho vic ra cho ring mnh mt quan im u t u khng nhn ra mt iu l bn cht ca L thuyt Dow l hon ton mang tnh k thut. C s xy dng cng nh i tng nghin cu ca l thuyt chnh l nhng bin ng ca bn thn th trng (th hin trong ch s trung bnh ca th trng) v khng h da trn cng c s ca Phn tch c bn l cc thng k hat ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip. Trong nhng ghi chp ca ngi u tin ra l thuyt ny, ng Charles.H.Dow, c rt nhiu iu chng t rng tc gi khng h ngh l thuyt ca mnh s tr thnh mt cng c

dng cho d bo th trng chng khon hay thm ch n tr thnh mt hng dn chung cho cc nh u t. Nhng ghi chp y ch ni ln rng ng mun l thuyt ca mnh thnh mt thc o bin ng chung ca th trng. Dow thnh lp Dch v thng tin ti chnh Dow Jones v c mi ngi bit n vi vic tm ra ch s bnh qun th trng chng khon. Nhng nguyn l cn bn ca hc thuyt (ngy nay c t theo tn ng) c ng phc tho ra trong mt bi nghin cu m ng vit cho Nht Bo Ph Wall. Sau khi Dow cht, nm 1902, ngi k tc ng lm bin tp cho t nht bo, William.P.Hamilton, tip tc vic nghin cu l thuyt ny, sau 27 nm nghin cu v vit cc bi bo, ng t chc v cu trc li thnh L thuyt Dow nh ngy nay. Trc ht, hy quan tm n ch s trung bnh ca th trng. Nhn chung gi, chng khon ca tt c cc cng ty u cng ln v xung, tuy nhin mt s c phiu li chuyn ng theo hng ngc li xu th chung ca cc c phiu khc cho d l ch trong vi ngy hoc vi tun. Thc t cho thy khi th trng ln gi th gi ca mt s chng khon tng nhanh hn nhng chng khon khc, cn khi th trng xung gi th mt s chng khon gim gi nhanh chng trong khi c mt s khc li tng ln, nhng thc t vn chng minh rng hu nh tt c cc chng khon u giao ng theo cng mt xu th chung. Cng vi nhng c gng nghin cu ca mnh, Charles Dow a ra khi nim v ch s gi bnh qun nhm phn nh xu th chung ca mt s c phiu i din cho th trng. Hai loi ch s bnh qun Dow Jones c hnh thnh vo nm 1897 v vn c s dng cho n ngy nay do Dow tm ra v p dng trong cc nghin cu ca ng v xu th chung ca th trng. Mt trong hai loi ch s y l ch s ca 20 cng ty xe la, loi cn li gi l ch s cng nghip thuc cc ngnh khc bao gm 12 cng ty mnh nht vo thi k . Con s ny tng ln 20 cng ty vo nm 1916 v n 1928 l 30 cng ty. Ch s bnh qun Dow (phn 1) Thut ng th trng nhm ch gi chng khon ni chung, giao ng ca th trng to thnh cc xu th gi, trong , quan trng nht l c c xu th cp 1 (xu th chnh hay xu th c bn)... 1 - Ch s bnh qun th trng phn nh tt c (tr hnh ng ca Cha) Bi v n phn nh nhng hot ng c lin kt vi nhau ca hng nghn nh u t, gm c nhng ngi c kinh nghim d on th trng gii nht, c nhng thng tin tt nht v xu hng v cc s kin, nhng g c th nhn thy trc v tt c nhng g c th nh hng n cung v cu ca cc loi chng khon.Thm ch c nhng thin tai hay thm ha khng d tnh c th ngay khi xy ra, chng c th trng phn nh ngay vo gi ca cc loi chng khon. 2 - Ba xu th ca th trng Thut ng th trng nhm ch gi chng khon ni chung, giao ng ca th trng to thnh cc xu th gi, trong , quan trng nht l cc xu th cp 1 (xu th chnh hay xu th c bn). y l nhng bin ng tng hoc gim vi qui m ln,thng ko di trong mt

hoc nhiu nm v gy ra s tng hay gim n 20% gi ca cc c phiu.Chuyn ng theo xu th cp 1 s b ngt qung bi s xen vo ca cc giao ng cp 2 theo hng i nghch_ gi l nhng phn ng hay iu chnh ca th trng. Nhng bin ng ny xut hin khi xu hng cp 1 tm thi vt qu mc hin ti ca bn thn n (gi chung cc bin ng ny l cc bin ng trung gian - bin ng cp 2). Nhng bin ng cp 2 bao gm nhng bin ng gi nh hay gi l nhng bin ng hng ngy u khng c ngha quan trng trong L thuyt Dow. 3 - Xu th cp 1 Nh ni n phn trc,xu th cp 1 l nhng chuyn ng ln ca gi, bao hm c th trng, thng ko di hn 1 nm v c th l trong vi nm. Nu nh mi t tng gi lin tip u t n mc cao hn mc trc v mi iu chnh cp 2 u dng li mc y cao hn mc y ca ln iu chnh trc th xu th cp 1 lc ny l tng gi - th trng lc ny l th trng gi ln (Bull Market). Cn ngc li nu mi bin ng gim u lm cho gi xung nhng mc thp hn cn mi iu chnh u khng mnh lm cho gi tng ln n mc nh ca nhng t tng gi trc th xu th cp 1 ca th trng lc ny l gim gi, th trng c gi l th trng gi xung (Bear Market).Thng thng, v l thuyt th xu th cp 1 ch l mt trong 3 loi xu th m mt nh u t di hn quan tm. Mc ch ca nh u t l mua chng khon cng sm cng tt trong mt th trng ln gi, sm n mc anh ta c th chc chn rng mi c duy nht mnh anh ta bt u mua v sau nm gi n khi v ch khi thi k "Bull Market" thc s kt thc v bt u thi k "Bear Market". Nh u t hiu rng h c th b qua mt cch an ton tt c nhng s xen vo ca cc iu chnh cp 2 v cc giao ng nh v h u t di hn theo xu th chnh ca th trng. Tuy nhin vi mt nh u t ngn hn th nhng bin ng ca xu th cp 2 li c vai tr quan trng bi h kim li nhun da trn nhng bin ng ngn hn ca th trng. 4 - Xu th cp 2 Xu th cp 2 l nhng iu chnh c tc ng lm gin on qu trnh vn ng ca gi theo xu th cp 1. Chng l nhng t suy gim tm thi (trung gian) hay cn gi l nhng iu chnh xut hin cc th trng gi ln; hoc nhng t tng gi hay cn gi l hi phc xut hin cc th trng gi xung.Thng th nhng bin ng trung gian ny ko di t 3 tun n nhiu thng. Chng s ko th trng ngc li khong 1/3 n 2/3 mc tng (hay gim ty loi th trng) ca gi theo xu th cp 1. Do , chng hn trong th trng gi ln, nu ch s gi bnh qun cng nghip tng lin tc n nh hoc c gin on rt nh v mc tng t n 30 im, khi xut hin xu th iu chnh cp 2, th ngi ta c th trng i xu th iu chnh ny c th lm gim t 10 n 20 im cho n khi th trng lp li xu th tng cp 1 ban u ca n. Du sao cng cn lu l quy tc gim 1/3 n 2/3 khng phi l mt quy lut khng th ph v m n n gin ch l mt nhn xt v kh nng c th xy ra m hu ht cc bin ng cp 2 u b gii hn trong mc ny. Rt nhiu trong s ngng tc ng im gn vi mc 50% m rt him khi t n mc 1/3.

Nh vy c 2 tiu ch nhn nh mt xu th cp 2: Tt c nhng chuyn ng ca gi ngc hng vi xu th cp 1 ko di t nht 3 tun v ko hon li t nht 1/3 mc bin ng thc ca xu th cp 1 (tnh t im kt thc bin ng cp 2 trc n bin ng cp 2 ny, b qua nhng giao ng nh) th c coi l thuc loi trung gian hay cn gi l bin ng cp 2. Mc d c nhng tiu ch xc nh mt xu th cp 2 nhng vn c nhng kh khn trong vic xc nh thi im hnh thnh v thi gian tn ti ca xu th. 5 - Xu th nh (Minor) y l nhng giao ng trong thi gian ngn(di ti a 3 tun, thng ch di 6 ngy) m theo nh thuyt Dow ni n, bn thn chng khng thc s c ngha nhng chng gp phn to nn cc xu th trung gian. Thng thng th mt bin ng trung gian d l mt xu th cp 2 hay l mt phn ca xu th cp 1 xen gia hai xu th cp 2 lin tip u c to thnh t mt dy gm 3 hoc nhiu hn nhng sang nh khc nhau.Xu th nh l dng duy nht trong 3 loi xu th c th b li ko (b tc ng). tc ng vo xu th cp1 v 2 th cn nhng giao dch vi khi lng rt ln v iu ny hu nh l khng th. lm r khi nim v 3 xu th ca th trng, ta c th so snh vi bin ng ca sng bin vi mt s im ging nhau nh sau: Xu th cp 1 trong gi chng khon ging nh nhng t thy triu ln hoc xung.C th so snh th trng gi ln (Bull Market) vi thy triu ln. Thy triu dng nc ln b bin ngy cng xa vo su trong b v n nh ca thy triu th li quay ngc tr v bin. Khi thy triu rt li c so snh vi th trng gi xung (Bear Market). V cho d trong lc thy triu ln hay xung th lun c nhng con sng p vo b ri li li li v bin. Khi thy triu ln, mi con sng lin tip nhau vo b, sng sau vo su hn sng trc li gp phn lm thu triu vo xa hn trong b, nhng khi thy triu xung mi con sng khng mang nc ra xa b m nc gim xung l do sng sau vo n b mc thp hn(tt li hn) so vi nh ca sng trc, mi con sng do s tr li dn dn b bin nh trc khi thy triu ln. Nhng con sng ny l cc xu th trung gian,c th cp1 hoc cp 2 ty thuc hng chuyn ng ca n so vi hng ca thy triu vo thi im xy ra xu th . Mt bin cng lun lun bin ng vi nhng gn sng nhp nh chuyn ng cng chiu, ngc chiu hoc chuyn ng ngang so vi hng ca nhng con sng ln - nhng gn sng ny biu hin cho cc xu th nh (nhng giao ng hng ngy c vai tr ko quan trng nh ni phn trn). Nhng t thy triu, nhng con sng v nhng gn sng nh chnh l nhng hnh nh so snh ging nht i vi nhng bin gi ca mt th trng. iu ny c m t c th hn trong L thuyt Sng Elliott, trong mi bin ng ca th trng u gn trc tip vi cc con sng... Mt xu th tng gi c bn thng bao gm 3 thi k.Thi k u tin l qu trnh tch t. Trong qu trnh ny, nhng nh u t c tm nhn xa s tin hnh xem xt cc doanh nghip, c th vo thi k ny doanh nghip ang suy thoi nhng nh u t nhn thy kh nng doanh ngip c th chuyn bin tnh hnh thnh tng trng nhanh chng,c th gi c phiu ca n s tng trong thi gian ti...

6 bc thit lp h thng giao dch ca bn

Bc 1: C cu thi gian iu u tin khi xy dng h thng giao dch ca bn l bn phi xc nh c mnh thuc dng ngi giao dch no. Bn l ngi giao dch trong ngy hay ngi giao dch di hn (a day trader or a swing trader) ? Bn c mun nhn vo cc th mi ngy, mi tun, mi thng hay thm ch mi nm? Bn mun bo v v th ca mnh trong bao lu? Vic xc nh ny s gip bn xc nh c loi c cu thi gian no bn s s dng giao dch. Thm ch, mc d bn vn nhn nhng th trong nhng khong thi hn di (nu qun hy xem li bi a khung thi gian) y s l khung thi gian chnh m bn s s dng tm kim tn hiu giao dch. Bc 2: Tm kim nhng tn hiu ch dn c th gip nhn bit mt xu hng mi. T khi t ra mt trong nhng mc tiu ca chng ta l nhn bit c xu hng chung cng sm cng tt, chng ta s s dng nhng tn hiu ch dn no m c th thc hin c iu ny. Nhng ng ni t im trung bnh di ng (SMA) l mt trong nhng tn hiu ch dn quan trng nht m nh giao dch phi s dng gip chng nhn bit c mt khuynh hng mi. C th, chng ta s s dng 2 im SMA (mt chm, mt nhanh) v i cho n khi im nhanh vt ln trn hoc xung thp hn im chm. y l c s cho vic nhn bit th no l h thng kt ni cc ng SMA. Vi hnh thc gin n nht, cc giao im ca nhng ng ni im trung bnh di ng l con ng tt nht nhn bit c cc khuynh hng chung. y cng l cch d nht nhn ra mt khuynh hng mi. D nhin cn rt nhiu cch nh giao dch c th nhn bit c cc khuynh hng chung, nhng nhng ng ni m bnh qun di ng l mt trong nhng cch d s dng nht. Bc 3: Tm kim nhng tn hiu ch dn c th gip XC NHN xu hng chung. Mc tiu th hai cho h thng ca chng ta l c c kh nng trnh nhng giao ng c bin nh (whipsaws), c ngha l chng ta khng mun bt phi nhng tn hiu sai. Cch chng ta thc hin c iu ny l phi xc nh chc chn rng khi chng ta nhn thy mt tn hiu cho mt xu hng chung, chng ta c th xc nhn n bng vic s dng nhng tn hiu ch dn khc. C rt nhiu tn hiu ch dn tt cho vic xc nhn c nhng xu hng chung mi, nhng ti li thy thch MACD, Stochastics, v RSI. Khi bn cm thy quen thuc hn vi nhng tn hiu ch dn khc nhau, bn s tm ra nhng tn hiu ch dn m bn thng tho chng hn nhng ci khc, v bn c th em chng vo h thng ca bn. Bc 4: Xc nh mc chp nhn ri ro ca bn

Khi pht trin h thng giao dch ca bn, iu quan trng m bn phi xc nh l bn c sn sng chu thit hi bao nhiu cho mi ln giao dch. Khng c nhiu ngi mun cp n thit hi, nhng thc t, mt nh giao dch gii lun ngh v nhng g h c th b mt trc khi ngh n h s kim c bao nhiu. S tin bn sn sng cho vic b thit hi khng ging vi bt c ai khc. Bn phi nhn bit c c bao nhiu kh nng c th em n cho giao dch ca bn sc mnh sinh tn, nhng cng lc , khng c ri ro no c xem l qu nhiu i vi mt giao dch. Bn s c hc nhiu hn v cch qun l tin trong bi hc sau. Qun l tin ng mt vai tr ln trong vic bn c nguy c chu tn tht bao nhiu trong mt phin giao dch. Bc 5: Xc nh thi im nhp cuc v thot ra khi phin giao dch. Bn xc nh r bn sn sng chu tn tht bao nhiu cho mt phin giao dch, bc tip n l phi tm ra thi im bn s tham gia v thot ra phin giao dch t c li nhun ln nht. Mt vi ngi thch vo ngay khi tt c tn hiu ch dn ca h kt ni v a ra mt tn hiu tt, bt k candle vn cha ng. Nhng ngi khc th thch i cho n khi ng candle. Theo kinh nghim bn thn, ti nhn thy bn nn i n khi candle sp ng ca ri hy vo. Ti tng lm vo nhng tnh trng phi gia candle v cc tn hiu ch dn kt ni, ch bit mt iu bng vic ng candle, phin giao dch hon ton i ngc li vi d tnh a ti. y tht s ch l mt vn ca loi giao dch ny. Mt vi ngi xng xo hn nhng ngi khc v rt cuc, bn s bit c bn l nh giao dch loi no. i vi nhng ln thot ra, bn c mt vi la chn khc. Cch th nht l bn s ko di tnh trng ngng li, c ngha l nu gi di chuyn n ng khon X nh d tnh ca bn, bn phi duy tr tnh trng ngng li ti khon X ny. Mt cch khc thot khi phin giao dch l phi t ra ch tiu, v thot ra khi gi chm n . Vy lm th no bn c th tnh c ch tiu l ty thuc bn. Mt vi ngi chn mc an ton v c th chng c nu xy ra s c lm ch tiu ca h (s mc gi sn mong i v mc mc gi trn mong i nh mc tiu h mong mun). Nhng ngi khc chn ch tiu theo s lng im trong mi phin giao dch. Tuy nhin, bn phi la chn tnh ton ch tiu sao cho chc chn bn phi lun bm st vo n. Khng bao gi c vic thot ra sm m khng c vn g xy ra. Bm st vo h thng giao dch ca bn! Vy l, bn pht trin c n ri y! Cn mt cch na bn c th thot ra l bn phi t ra nhng tiu chun m khi t n, cc tn hiu s pht ra, gip bn nhn bit v thot ra. V d nh bn c th t ra mt nguyn tc l nu cc tn hiu ch dn xut hin mt cch khng bnh thng, bn s thot ra khi phin giao dch.

Bc 6: t ra nhng quy nh cho h thng ca bn v tun theo chng! y l bc quan trng nht trong vic thit lp h thng giao dch ca bn. Bn phi t t ra nhng quy nh cho h thng giao dch ca mnh v phi lun tun theo chng. K lut l mt trong nhng c tnh quan trng nht m mt nh giao dch phi c, v vy bn phi nh bm st vo h thng ca chnh bn! Khng c h thng no lm vic cho bn nu bn khng i theo cc quy tc ca chng, do nh l phi lun tun theo k lut. , ti c ni bn phi lun nh bm vo cc quy tc ri phi khng? C rt nhiu h thng tn ti v hot ng, nhng cng c kh nhiu nh giao dch thiu tnh k lut tun theo cc quy tc ca h thng giao dch v kt qu l h kt thc giao dch trong tnh trng tn tht. Lm cch no kim tra h thng giao dch ca bn Cch nhanh nht kim tra h thng l bn phi tm ra mt chng trnh phn mm giao dch (Meta Trade 4) , bn c th kim tra cc thi im c th giao dch xy ra. Khi di chuyn th, bn c th tun theo nhng quy tc ca h thng giao dch ca mnh v bn s c c nhng giao dch hp l. Ghi nhn nhng thnh tch giao dch ca mnh, v hy thnh tht vi chnh mnh! Ghi nhn nhng thng li, sai lm, v thng li, thit hi trung bnh. Nu bn hi lng vi nhng kt qu ny, hy i tip n giai on kim tra tip theo: giao dch thc t vi ti khon demo. Giao dch thc t vi ti khon demo trn h thng giao dch mi ca chnh bn t nht 02 thng. iu ny s cho bn cm gic v vic lm cch no kinh doanh h thng ca mnh khi th trng ang hot ng. Hy tin ti, khi kim tra ln cui cng bn s nhn thy giao dch trn thc t l rt khc. Sau 02 thng giao dch trn thc t bng ti khon demo, bn s bit c liu h thng giao dch ca bn c tht s gp mt trong th trng hay khng. Nu bn vn nhn c nhng kt qu tt p, vy th tip theo bn c th chn giao dch bng mt ti khon tht trn h thng giao dch ca mnh. V im ny, bn nn cm thy t tin vi h thng ca mnh v hy thy thoi mi thc hin cc giao dch m khng c s chn ch hay phn vn. Vy l bn lm c ri!

Thit Lp H Thng Giao Dch (Trading System) P1

H thng Qu d n bun ci ca ti Trong phn ny, ti s a ra cho bn khi nim th no l h thng giao dch ngoi hi. iu ny s cung cp cho bn mt khi nim v nhng g bn nn tm kim khi m rng h thng giao dch ca mnh. Thit lp mt giao dch Giao dch da trn biu hng ngy (giao dch ngy)

5 EMA 10 EMA Stochastic (10,3,3) RSI (14) Quy tc giao dch 1. Stop loss = 30 pips Quy tc entry / exit : a. Vo lnh mua nu: 5 EMA ct vt trn 10 EMA v c hai ng stochastic hng ln ( khng vo lnh nu ng stochastic ang mc vt mua ) RSI ln hn 50 b. Vo lnh bn nu: EMA ct xung di 10 EMA v c hai stochastic hng xung ln ( khng vo lnh nu ng stochastic ang mc vt bn RSI thp hn 50

c. Quy tc thot ra Thot ra khi 5 EMA gp 10 EMA trong ch dn tri ngc vi giao dch ca bn hoc nu RSI quay li mc 50. c ri, hy nhn vo mt vi th v nhn a tr ang hot ng Nh bn thy, chng ta c tt c yu t ca mt h thng giao dch tt. u tin, chng ta khng nh y l mt h thng giao dch bin ng, v rng chng ta s giao dch trn biu hng ngy. Tip n, chng ta s s dng nhng EMA gip chng ta nhn bit c mt khuynh hng mi cng sm cng tt. Stochastic s gip chng ta xc nh c liu c cn thun li chng ta tham gia vo mt giao dch sau khi c EMA, v n cng gip cho chng ta trnh c trng hp bn vt mc d tr v mua vo qu nhiu. RSI l mt cng c gip chng ta xc nh thm c mc ng tin cy ca khuynh hng . Sau khi tnh ton k vic thit lp giao dch, chng ta s xc nh nhng ri ro c kh nng

xy ra cho mi ln giao dch. Mi phin giao dch, chng ta sn sng chu tn tht 30 im. Thng thng, vi c cu thi hn di hn, pips nhiu hn bn nn sn sng cho vic tn tht bi v li nhun ca bn c c trng l ngy cng ln hn nu bn giao dch trong mt khung thi gian ngn hn. Tip theo, chng ta s vch r quy tc ra vo mt phin giao dch. V im ny, chng ti mun bt u phn th nghim bng m cc kim tra th cng. Di y mt vi v d:

Nu chng ta quay li ng thi im v nhn vo biu ny, chng ta s thy theo quy tc ca h thng giao dch, y s l mt thi im tt tin xa hn. kim tra ln cui, bn nn vit ra mc gi no bn s bt u nhp cuc, mc thit hi nn dng li v k hoch thot ra. Sau bn s di biu n mt candle bit c giao dch ang chuyn bin nh th no.

Trong trng hp c th ny, bn ly c 1 s pips ng k. Sau phin giao dch ny, bn c th mua c mt vi th g tht tuyt! Bn c th nhn thy khi cc ng ni EMA gp phi nhng ch dn tri ngc, th y l thi im bn nn thot ra. Tt nhin l khng phi tt c cc giao dch ca bn u trng d thng nh th. C mt vi giao dch c th rt t hi, nhng bn phi lun nh gi k lut v lun phi bm st vo cc quy tc ca h thng giao dch ca chnh bn.

Trong v d ny, c th nhn thy chng ta t c tiu chun ra v theo chng ta s nhp cuc trong thi hn ngn. By gi chng ta s ghi nhn mc gi no bn s nhp cuc mc thit hi nn dng li v k hoch thot ra, v sau hy di chuyn biu n mt candle tip theo v thy c iu g xy ra. Ti s nh cuc vi bn 1000USD l ti s ng trong giao dch ln ny.

, nhc nhin khng no?! Nhng g din ra li ng nh d tnh ca ti! Bn c th nhn thy chng ta s khng ra khi giao dch ny cho n khi cc ng ni EMA mt ln na li vt qua v RSI tr v 50. Ti bit bn chc l ang ngh rng h thng ny qu n gin sinh li. , s tht l n rt n gin. Bn khng nn e ngi v mt ci g bn cho l n gin. Trn thc t, bn s thng nhn thy trong gii giao dch mt t c vit bt u bng ch u ca mt nhm t c gi l KISS. N c hnh thnh t Keep It Simple Stupid! C bn, ta c th hiu n c ngha l nhng h thng giao dch ngoi hi khng phc tp. Bn khng cn phi c v s tn hiu ch dn trn biu ca mnh. Trn thc t, gi nguyn tnh n gin ca mt ci g s lm cho bn phi nhc u hn. iu quan trng nht l k lut. Ti khng bit lm th no nhn mnh v iu ny. , ti s c th lm c. BN PHI LUN TUN TH QUY TC CA H THNG GIAO DCH CA CHNH BN! Nu bn kim tra k h thng ca mnh bng backtesting ( kim tra li ) v thng qua giao dch th nghim trn thc t trong thi hn t nht l 02 thng, bn s cm thy t tin hiu rng bn s c mt kt thc y li nhun vi iu kin l bn phi tun th ng quy tc ca h thng giao dch.. TM LI C rt nhiu h thng tn ti v hot ng, nhng cng c kh nhiu nh giao dch thiu tnh k lut tun theo cc quy tc ca h thng giao dch v kt qu l h kt thc

giao dch trong tnh trng tn tht. H thng giao dch ca bn nn c gng vt qua hon thnh 02 mc tiu: 1. C th nhn ra c xu hng chung cng sm cng tt 2. C th tm ra cc cch phng trnh whipsaws bng cch chng thc c xu hng. C 06 bc pht trin h thng giao dch ca bn: 1. Tm ra khung thi hn ca bn 2. Tm ra tn hiu ch dn gip bn sm nhn ra cc xu hng 3. Tm ra cc tn hiu ch dn gip bn phng trnh c whipsaws v chng thc c xu hng ca bn 4. Xc nh c ri ro ca bn 5. Xc nh thi im ra vo giao dch 6. t ra cc quy tc cho h thng giao dch ca bn v lun tun th theo nhng quy tc ! C 03 cch thc th nghim h thng giao dch ca bn: 1. Backtest quay tr li, chn thi im v di chuyn biu ca bn n candle lin tip nhau. Giao dch trn h thng phi tun theo nhng quy tc ca n v bn nn ghi chp li cc giao dch thc hin bit c liu n c th kt thc vi nhiu li nhun hay khng. 2. Nu n sinh li nhun, bn giao dch tht s bng ti khon th nghim t nht 02 thng. iu ny s gip bn ngh ra c cch s giao dch nh th no khi th trng chuyn ng. Giao dch thc t rt khc so vi kim tra th cng. 3. Nu mt ln m bn giao dch bng ti khon th nghim trong thi hn t nht 02 thng v bn vn sinh li, th bn hy sn sng giao dch bng s tin tht. Tuy nhin, bn phi lun nh rng phi tun th nhng quy tc ca h thng khng b xy ra bt c vn g!

Hy tin vo h thng ca bn v hy tin vo chnh bn thn mnh!

System c bn (S dng 02 Stochastic)

Bng cch phn tch bng 02 Stochastic chng ta c chnh xc cao hn. Tuy nhin, bn nn nh mt iu l vi mi cng c Forex c thm vo c th dn n s phc tp cho

bn, v s phc tp khng phi lun lun tt. Cp tin : bt k Khung thi gian : 1 gi, 1 ngy Cng c : Stochastic (21, 9, 9) v Stochastic (9, 3, 3). Nguyn tc m giao dch : khi cc ng Stochastic (21, 9, 9) ct nhau m giao dch (hoc i candle hin ti ng ri m giao dch). y s l xu hng chnh. Theo di Stochastic (9, 3, 3) bit c cc sng nh trong xu hng chnh v tip tc m thm giao dch. B qua cc tn hiu ng giao dch ca ng Stochastic (9, 3, 3), khng ng giao dch cho n khi ng Stochastic (21, 9, 9) cho tn hiu ng giao dch r rng. Nguyn tc ng giao dch : ng giao dch khi cc ng Stochastic (21, 9, 9) ct nhau.

u im : s dng 02 cng c Stochastic gip bn nhn thy xu hng chnh v cc sng nh trong xu hng . iu ny gip tng chnh xc hn m v ng giao dch. Khuyt im : cn theo di lin tc v mt ln na chng ta ang giao dch bng mt cng c bo hiu tr.

System c bn (Knh xu hng ngang)

To mt knh h tr/khng c da vo cc nh v y lp i lp li trc v thc hin giao dch khi knh b ph v. System giao dch ny khng cn n cc cng c khc v c th p dng cho mi cp tin, mi khung thi gian khi gi giao ng sideway trong mt phm vi nh. Nguyn tc m giao dch : khi th trng sideway, da vo cc nh v y trn th v 02 ng khng c v h tr. Khi gi ph thng mt trong hai ng v candle hin ti ng bn ngoi ng knh th thc hin m giao dch buy/sell theo hng ph thng knh. (Nu gi ph thng ng knh nhng khng ng bn ngoi ng knh th xa b ng khng c/h tr v trc v v li ng khc theo nh/y mi). Nguyn tc ng giao dch : khng t, tuy nhin thng khi gi ph v knh s i mt on bng rng ca knh.

u im : rt n gin v cc k hu hiu. System ny c th mang li li nhun cho bn trong hu ht cc giao dch, nu mun thu li nhanh th trader thng ng ngay candle u tin sau khi m giao dch. Khuyt im : Nhng order gn vi ng knh rt d b m bi cc bin ng gi t ngt ti cc mc h tr/ khng c trc khi s ph v knh thc s xy ra.

System kt hp Parabolic SAR v ADX

Hai cng c ny lm vic rt hiu qu khi s dng chung vi nhau. Cp tin : bt k Khung thi gian : bt k Cng c : Parabolic SAR vi thng s ngm nh (0.02, 0.2), ADX 50 (vi cc ng +DI, -DI) Nguyn tc m giao dch : Sell khi ng +DI nm bn di ng DI v Parabolic SAR cho tn hiu m giao dch Sell. Khi ng +DI nm bn trn ng DI th phi b qua tt c cc tn hiu Sell ca Parabolic SAR. Buy khi ng +DI nm bn trn ng DI v Parabolic SAR cho tn hiu m giao dch Buy. Khi ng +DI nm bn di ng DI th phi b qua tt c cc tn hiu Buy ca Parabolic SAR Nguyn tc ng giao dch : khi ng +DI v DI ct nhau ln na. Ngoi ra, ng ADX ln cng cao th xu hng hin ti cng mnh. Nu ng ADX ln n 25 th xu hng bt u mnh.

u im : cho php lc tn hiu hiu m giao dch v d on trc c im ng giao dch. Khuyt im : C Parabolic SAR v ADX u l cng c theo sau xu hng. Mc d chng b sung cho nhau rt hiu qu, im yu nht trong h thng l ADX, bi v trong qu trnh giao dch n c th cho mt tn hiu nhng sau li thay i ngc li. Khi c mt tn hiu giao dch t ADX bn phi i n khi candle hin ti ng trnh tn hiu li.

System C Bn (System cc k n gin)

Mt trader c th quyt nh k hoch giao dch ch cn nhn thong qua th trong vi giy. Mt h thng giao dch cc k n gin l c m ca cc trader bn rn. Cp tin : bt k Khung thi gian : 1 ngy Cng c : 5 EMA, 12 EMA v RSI (21) Nguyn tc m giao dch : BUY khi ng 5 EMA quay ln v ct qua ng 12 EMA, RSI trn 50. SEL khi ng 5 EMA quay xung v ct qua ng 12 EMA, RSI di 50. Nguyn tc ng giao dch : ng giao dch khi ng 5 EMA v 12 EMA ct nhau ln na hoc khi RSI ct tr li qua mc 50.

Bi v y l mt system da theo th ngy nn c th xem y l mt system n gin theo xu hng ca th ngy. Bi v EMA l cng c bo hiu tr nn chng thc s hu ch cho bn trong trng hp ny. Tn hiu do cc ng EMA ct nhau xut hin sau khi th trng lng du mt thi gian sc cho mt xu hng mi c thit lp.

Trading system kt hp gia Heiken Ashi, Bolinger Bands v ADX

y l 1 h thng giao dch kh n gin v hiu qu dnh cho vng, ngoi hi. Cc ch bo s dng trong system: 1. Heiken Ashi 2. Bolinger Bands : period (20), diviations (2) 3. ADX : period (14) Khung thi gian ph hp: 1h, 4h, daily I. Entry rules Long rules: 1. Gi vt di di Bolinger Bands. 2. Xut hin 1 cy Heiken Ashi tng c di trung bnh tr ln. 3. ADX < 40 Short rules: 1. Gi vt di trn Bolinger Bands. 2. Xut hin 1 cy Heiken Ashi gim c di trung bnh tr ln. 3. ADX < 40 II. Exit rules: -i vi xu hng gi tng gim mnh (ADX > 40). K thut ny s gip trader thu li nhn ti a khi gp trend di, mnh. Exit long rules: 1. Gi vt Bolinger Bands trn. 2. Xut hin 1 cy Heiken Ashi gim c di trung bnh tr ln.

Exit short rules: 1. Gi vt Bolinger Bands di. 2. Xut hin 1 cy Heiken Ashi tng c di trung bnh tr ln. -i vi xu hng gi tng gim trung bnh, yu (ADX < 30) th trader s dng k thut thot nhanh sau s gip trnh tnh trng gi o chiu. Exit long rules: Gi vt Bolinger Bands trn hoc xut hin 1 cy Heiken Ashi gim. Exit short rules: Gi vt Bolinger Bands di hoc xut hin 1 cy Heiken Ashi tng. Hnh minh ho lnh long (bm vo hnh phng ln)

Hnh minh ho lnh short (bm vo hnh phng ln)

System Trade theo Fibonacci

Mt s bn mun tm kim mt system dng trn nhng khung thi gian nh hn. y l mt system kh tt c th p ng yu cu ca bn. Khi mt trader quyt nh s dng cc khung thi gian nh (VD: 10 pht, 15 pht, 30 pht, 1 gi) th ri ro s lun lun cao hn so vi s dng cc khung thi gian ln hn. Do , iu quan trng l c mt system thc s tt c th bo cho bn nhng c hi giao dch vi kh nng thng cao v mt iu quan trng khng km l system c th cho bn bit chnh xc im ng giao dch m khng cn phi lun lun theo di bin ng ca gi. System di y s cn n kin thc c bn v cch s dng cng c Fibonacci, v cng lu rng khng phi mi trader u thy thoi mi khi s dng Fobonacci trong Forex. Cp tin : bt k Khung thi gian : bt k khung thi gian no ln hn 5 pht v nh hn 3 gi Cng c : WMA 5 Nguyn tc m giao dch : Nhn vo cc t sng bin ng gi. Tm 02 im swing high v swing low mi nht, gi 02 im ny l A v B. Ko Fibonacci t im A n im B. Bit rng hng ko Fibonacci (ln hoc xung) chnh l xu hng, nu xu hng khng r rng th k Fibonacci theo c 02 hng. Sau khi k Fobonacci xong, i v theo di gi thoi lui (retrace) quyt nh m giao dch. Trong qu trnh gi thoi lui c 03 iu kin m giao dch : 1. Gi phi chm ng WMA 5. 2. Gi t nht phi chm mc thoi lui Fibonacci 0.382. 3. Mc thoi lui Fibonacci 0.618 phi khng b tht bi, ngha l gi khng ng bn di (xu hng ln) hoc bn trn (xu hng xung) mc 0.618. Gi c th chm hoc qua mc ny nhng cui cng mc 0.618 phi y li cuc tn cng. Khi 03 iu kin ni trn u tha, m giao dch Long khi candle ng bn trn trn ng WMA 5, v ngc li m giao dch Short khi bn di ng WMA 5. Stop loss c t trn (xu hng xung)/ di (xu hng ln) mc thoi lui Fibonacci

0.618 khong 4-5 pips. Profit target t mc Fibonacci m rng 1.618.

System Trade theo xu hng vi cc ng EMA

Cp tin : bt k Khung thi gian : 1 ngy, 1 gi hoc 30 pht Cng c : EMA 80, EMA 21, EMA 13, EMA 5, EMA 3 v RSI (21) Nguyn tc m giao dch : EMA 80 cho bit chiu ca xu hng chnh. Khi gi bn trn ng EMA 80 xu hng ln, v ngc li l xu hng xung.

EMA 21 v EMA 13 cho bit chiu ca xu hng hin ti. Khi ng EMA 13 nm trn ng EMA 21 xu hng ln, v ngc li l xu hng xung. RSI (21) trn 50 xu hng ln, di 50 xu hng xung Cc giao dch c m khi ng EMA 5 v EMA 3 ct nhau theo chiu ca xu hng : Buy khi EMA 3 ct qua EMA 5 theo hng ln trong th trng ang c xu hng ln V c EMA 5 v 3 u ct EMA 21 v 13 V RSI trn 50 Sell khi khi EMA 3 ct qua EMA 5 theo hng xung trong th trng ang c xu hng xung V c EMA 5 v 3 u ct EMA 21 v 13 V RSI di 50 Ch : C th m thm giao dch khi EMA 3 v 5 ct nhau tr li v sau rt nhanh li to mt tn hiu ct nhau ln na. Khi c tn hiu m giao dch, bn phi lun lun ch n khi candle ng v cc iu kin u chc chn th mi tin hnh m giao dch.

Nguyn tc ng giao dch : khi EMA 13 ct EMA 21 ln na. Theo di EMA 80 i hng, cng nh RSI ct tr li mc 50 trong nhng trng hp ny lp tc ng giao dch.

System MACD phn k

Cp tin : EUR/USD (u tin) hoc cp tin bt k Khung thi gian : 30 pht Cng c : MACD (5,26,1), Stochastic (14,3,3), EMA 3, SMA 13 Nguyn tc m giao dch : ch xut hin phn k gia gi v MACD hoc gia gi v Stochastic. Khi phn k xut hin, i EMA 3 v SMA 13 ct nhau th m giao dch theo hng ca EMA 3. t stop loss 26 pips. Thu mt na li nhun khi t 20 pips, phn cn li i tip theo gi bng trailing stop.

Phn k trn Stochastic cng c s dng ging nh trn MACD. L do s dng c 02 cng c MACD v Stochastic l v khi phn k xut hin trn mt cng c th cng c kia c th vn cha xut hin.

Breakout ca Breakout
System ny pht trin da trn system Midnight setup nhng c th kt hp vi cc system khc. System ny c th loi b bt cc breakout gi trong system Midnight setup.Setup: th ngy v 5 pht, khng cn cc cng c khc. Nguyn tc m giao dch : S dng nguyn tc t system Midnight setup chng ta m giao dch khi gi cao nht hoc thp nht ca ngy trc b ph v. Tuy nhin, thay v order bn trn v bn di gi cao nht/ thp nht ca ngy trc chng ta s i n khi breakout xy ra. Bn c th t tn hiu cnh bo trn trading platform khi c breakout th bn s c bo. Ngay khi c breakout trn hoc di candle ca ngy trc chng ta s theo di th 5 pht, i n khi kt thc t bin ng u tin v gi retrace tr li. V y l cch trade theo breakout ca breakout : Trn th 5 pht, nh du mc t n ti a ca t bin ng u tin (gi cao nht hoc thp nht ty thuc vo chiu breakout) v t Buy Stop Order hoc Sell Stop Order cch mc nh du 10 pips ( trnh breakout gi).

Kh thng xy ra trng hp sau khi breakout trn th ngy, mc t n ti a trn th 5 pht tr thnh mc khng c/ h tr mnh. Gi khng th chm li mc ny na, hoc c th chm n v to thnh dng double top/bottom ri quay u. Khng phi tt c, nhng nhiu giao dch thua l nh th ny c th trnh c nh trade theo breakout ca breakout. Khuyt im ca system : Trc tin, chng ta s m giao dch chm sau khi breakout xy ra trn th ngy v do s mt mt t pips. Th hai, nu breakout qu mnh, vic retrace trn th 5 pht c th khng xy ra hoc xy ra qu mun. C hi giao dch i vi trng hp ny rt t. Th ba, bn khng th ci t vo bui sng ri sau i chi. Bn cn phi theo di th 5 pht ch retrace v ci t order.

System c bn (ng EMA b ph thng)

Trc sau g th tt c Forex trader cng bt u th nghim vi cc thng s EMA khc nhau. y l mt system n gin da trn cng c EMA 50. Cp tin : bt k Khung thi gian : 90 pht hoc 3 gi. Cng c : EMA 50. Nguyn tc m giao dch : Theo di mt candle chc thng qua ng EMA 50 v cui cng ng bn trn (m giao dch long) hoc bn di ng EMA (m giao dch short). Nguyn tc ng giao dch : khng t. t Stop loss : 15 pips di ng EMA 50.

M hnh gi o chiu W {Reversal}

PHN I: GII THIU M HNH W

Cc bn theo di Blog v cc chin thut mnh Post s phn loi 2 chin thut chnh c p dng: 1/ Trend Trading 2/ Reversal {o c+hiu} M hnh o chiu mang li nhiu ri ro hn,do cn tun th nghim ngt lnh Stoploss {Dng l} Trong bi vit ny,mnh s gii thiu M hnh o chiu W kh ph bin,y l chin thut bt y,hi mu nhng cng rt hiu qu v t l Li:L cao: PHNG PHP CHUNG:

Khi th trng gim mnh, thng thng s c t tng hi phc: +Trng hp lc tng hi phc khng r rng th kh nng xu hng gim tip din rt cao +Trng hp tng hi phc,sau test y v khng th gim qua y c. Lu : KHNG GIM QUA Y C V PHI TO NN O CHIU LY TNG MNH. V d:

Cc bn thy 1 xu hng gim kh mnh chim u th.Tuy nhin,mt con sng tng ang n rt gn,ti sao !!!? +ng MACD phn k o chiu{Divergence} +on sng tng hi phc r rng {Test mc khng c 23,6% trn con sng gim} Cng vic hin nay l tm tn hiu nn o chiu mua vo. im dng l {Stoploss} khong 20 pip di y c. KT QU:

QUAN ST K M HNH NN O CHIU NH:

y chnh l m hnh Bottom tweetzers {cc cy nn xut hin bng di,bo hiu bt u c lc bt y} PHN II:NGUYN TC GIAO DCH KT HP DEVERGENCE+PIVOT POINT {Hoc Fibonacci} Bc 1: Xc nh c hi giao dch: Quan st tm tn hiu Divergence v gi di chuyn gn cc mc cn theo Pivot {hoc Fibonacci}. V d minh ha:

Bc 2: t lnh Mc tiu Stoploss

Tm im vo {Entry} v thot lnh {Exit} BUY vng h tr ti cc mc cn Pivot li nhun: Mc cn tip theo khong 20-30 pip di mc cn Pivot

Chin lc thnh cng

indicator Head and Shoulders (u 2 vai) Khung thi gian: Dng cho tt c cc khung. Khi xut hin m hnh u 2 vai thi indicator s cho 2 im Entry v im cht li . im Entry vn l im nh m hnh c in l im ph Neckline (ng vin c). Tt c c m t nh hnh v.